SIGMETs and Icing Forecasts WMO/ICAO SIGMET WORKSHOP … and Icing... · SIGMETs and Icing...
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Transcript of SIGMETs and Icing Forecasts WMO/ICAO SIGMET WORKSHOP … and Icing... · SIGMETs and Icing...
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SIGMETs and Icing Forecasts
WMO/ICAO SIGMET WORKSHOP TOKYO 2016
James LannanAviation Trainer
Aviation Weather Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.
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Aeronautical Forecasters Handbook
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Aeronautical Forecasters Quick Guide
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WMO Aviation Hazards Manual
http://www.caem.wmo.int/moodle/file.php?file=/1/AVIATION_HAZARDS.pdf
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Icing Basics
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Airframe IcingForecast Process
Identify synoptic weather systems favourable for icing
Analyse the cloud types and phases (Water/Supercooled Liquid/Ice)
Analyse wind & temperature profile of cloud
Identify any mesoscale factors that may influence icing severity
Estimate icing type and severity based on temperature and cloud type
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The Detailed Icing Forecast
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Icing Case Study – Southern Australia11th August (Winter) 2300UTC – 0600UTC
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Radiosondeobservation.
11th Augustat 2300Z
Red is current.
Blue is 12HRprevious.
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NWP Data: ACCESS R - 0700UTC
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The Icing SIGMET
WSAU21 ASRF 120520 YMMM SIGMET M02 VALID 120600/121000 YSRF -YMMM MELBOURNE FIR SEV ICE FCST WI S3430 E14430 – S3200E14900 – S3500 E15200 – S3700 E14530 - S3430 E14430 FL050/120 STNR NCRMK: MM EXTD M01 120200/120600=
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Graphical SIGMETs - 0641UTC