Örebro University

School of Medicine

Degree Project, 30 ECTS

2018-01-04

Sight-threatening Diabetic Retinopathy in a Swedish County –

Prevalence and Comparison of Patients with and without Sight-threatening Diabetic Retinopathy

Version 2

Author: Sebastian Gustafsson, Bachelor of Medicine

Supervisor: Karl-Johan Hellgren, M.D. Ph.D.

Abstract

Introduction

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the commonest complication of diabetes mellitus, the most

frequent cause of blindness in working age people and is associated with increased risk of

morbidity and mortality. Advanced stages are classified as sight-threatening diabetic

retinopathy (STDR). The prevalence of DR and STDR in Sweden is unknown, and there is

limited data on how STDR affects visual acuity.

Aim

Estimate the prevalence of confirmed STDR among adult diabetics in Värmland County in

Sweden in 2008. Estimate trends of prevalence of possible DR and STDR, and proportion of

STDR, among adult diabetics in Värmland 2008-2016. Investigate differences, including

visual acuity, between patients with and without STDR in 2008.

Material and Methods

All patients with possible DR and STDR in Värmland 2008-2016 were included. Data was

collected from two electronic medical records; Melina and Cambio Cosmic.

Results

The prevalence of confirmed STDR in 2008 was estimated to 6.8 %. The prevalence of

possible STDR and DR was 11.7 % and 28.3 % in 2008, and decreased by 4.0 % and 8.2 %

2008-2016, respectively. Type 1 diabetes, longer diabetes duration, treatment with insulin,

higher glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and visual acuity in best and worst eye was associated

with presence of STDR.

Conclusions

The estimated prevalence of confirmed STDR was 6.8 %, lower than a global estimate of 10.4

%. STDR was associated with lower visual acuity, as well as several unfavorable diabetic

factors. Our study shows a possible decrease in the prevalence of STDR and DR in Värmland

2008-2016.

Abbreviations list

Anti-VEGF – Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor

DME – Diabetic Macular Edema

DR – Diabetic Retinopathy

HbA1c – Glycated Hemoglobin.

STDR – Sight-threatening Diabetic Retinopathy

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 1

AIMS ................................................................................................................................................................ 2

MATERIAL AND METHODS ............................................................................................................................... 2

DIABETIC RETINOPATHY AND VISUAL ACUITY IN VÄRMLAND 2008-2018 .......................................................................... 2

STUDY POPULATION................................................................................................................................................. 3

DATA COLLECTION AND DEFINITIONS .......................................................................................................................... 4

Retinopathy ................................................................................................................................................... 4

Prevalence ..................................................................................................................................................... 4

Variables ........................................................................................................................................................ 5

STATISTICS ............................................................................................................................................................. 5

ETHICS .................................................................................................................................................................. 6

RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................................... 6

DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................................................................... 7

CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................................. 9

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................. 10

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................... 11

1

Introduction

Diabetes mellitus is a disease characterized by hyperglycemia because of absolute or relative

insulin deficiency for type 1 and type 2, respectively [1]. The prevalence of diabetes around

the globe is estimated to increase from 415 million in 2015 to 642 million in 2040 [2]. The

prevalence of diabetes among adults (≥20 years) in Sweden increased from 5.8 % in 2007 to

6.8 % 2013 despite constant incidence, and is projected to rise to 10,4 % by 2050 with

constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival [3].

DR is one of several micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes. It is the most

common complication, with estimated prevalence at 34.6 % among diabetes subjects

worldwide, although, there is considerable variability between individual studies [4]. Major

risk factors include duration of diabetes, HbA1c and high blood pressure [4]. It is also the most

common cause of blindness in working age people [5]. The presence of DR is furthermore

associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events [6].

There are several morphological signs of DR. The first visible signs are microaneurysms,

followed by leakage and intraretinal hemorrhages, and eventually, if untreated, progression to

neovascularization and preretinal/vitreous hemorrhages [7]. Retinopathy of the macula is

classified separately as diabetic macular edema (DME) [7]. Later stages of DR and DME are

classified as STDR because of significant risk of visual impairment as a result of the

morphological changes. The prevalence of STDR among patients with diabetes is estimated at

10.2 % globally, but as with any DR there are significant variations among individual studies

[4].

DR may be prevented by good metabolic control and sight-threatening vascular lesions can

often be treated with photocoagulation or intravitreal injections of anti-VEGF and cortisone

[8].

Retinal photocoagulation as a proven treatment to prevent blindness in patients with DR was

established in the early 1990’s [9–11]. Screening programs was put in place as patients gained

access to treatment, and the Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment and

Assessment of Social Services established recommended screening for DR in type 1 and type

2 diabetes in 1993, and the National Board of Health and Welfare publishes guidelines

regarding screening for DR since 1999, which were last revised in 2015 [12,13].

2

Levels of blindness and need for low vision habilitation decreased in the 1990’s alongside

implementation of screening and treatment of DR [14,15]. However, this coincided with

significant improvements in diabetes care, e.g. better monitoring of blood glucose, better

glycemic control and blood pressure treatment, which may have contributed to the

observations stated above, as well as reports of slower progression of DR [16,17].

With regards to the continuous improvements in diabetes care, both systematic and

ophthalmological, it is necessary to have current data on prevalence and functional outcomes

of DR and STDR. Prevalence of DR has been estimated in only a few recent studies, and there

is even more limited data regarding how STDR impact visual acuity [18].

We hypothesized that the prevalence of DR in Värmland would be lower than global

estimates, similar to a population-based study in a region of Norway [4,19]. We also

hypothesized that the prevalence of DR and STDR would decrease over an eight-year period

as a possible result of the improvements in diabetes care. Finally, we hypothesized that

patients with STDR would have worse visual acuity and more unfavorable diabetic factors

than non-STDR patients.

Aims

Primary aims: Estimate the prevalence of confirmed STDR among adult diabetics (≥20 years)

in Värmland County in Sweden in 2008. Estimate trends of prevalence of possible DR and

STDR among adult diabetics in Värmland 2008-2016, as well as the proportion of STDR

compared to any DR in the same time period.

Secondary aim: Investigate possible differences, including visual acuity, between 100 patients

with confirmed STDR 2008 and an age- and sex-matched control group with diabetes but

without STDR.

Material and Methods

Diabetic Retinopathy and Visual Acuity in Värmland 2008-2018

This study is a retrospective record study that is a pilot study of “Diabetic Retinopathy and

Visual Acuity in Värmland 2008-2018”. The primary aims of that study is to describe the

number of patients with STDR, their visual acuity, and if there has been any change over a

ten-year period.

3

Study Population

To investigate the prevalence of confirmed STDR among adult diabetics we verified the grade

of retinopathy of patients with possible STDR in 2008. Patients were identified as having

confirmed STDR after re-evaluation of fundus photographs. In cases were photographs were

missing because the degree of retinopathy was graded by ophthalmoscopy, the retinopathy

grade was collected from the medical record.

To investigate trends of prevalence of possible, non-confirmed, STDR and DR among adult

diabetics we included all diabetic subjects with a clinical diagnosis of possible STDR and DR

in medical records.

Visual acuity and other patient characteristics in subjects with and without STDR were

compared in two subgroups. One STDR group consisting of 100 consecutive patients, starting

2008-01-01, with confirmed STDR. The control group was matched for gender and age. A

requirement to be included in the control group was that there was no record of STDR and

that visual acuity was accessible.

4

Data Collection and Definitions

Data was collected from two electronic medical records; Melina 1.0 (Know It, Karlstad,

Sweden), which is the software used to register all screening visits for DR in Värmland

County, and Cambio Cosmic 8.1 (Cambio Healthcare Systems, Sweden) in the case of

missing data in Melina.

Retinopathy

DR was graded according to the “International Clinical Diabetic Retinopathy and Diabetic

Macular Edema Disease Severity Scale” as follows: Not present, mild (microaneurysms only),

moderate to severe non-proliferative (severe intraretinal hemorrhages in four quadrants,

venous beading in at least 2 quadrants or intraretinal microvascular abnormalities), or

proliferative (angiogenesis) [7]. DME was graded as absent, mild, moderate, or severe [7].

Proliferative DR treated with photocoagulation was still defined as proliferative DR, while

DME treated with photocoagulation was not defined as DME post treatment.

Possible STDR was defined as presence of “severe non-proliferative” or “proliferative” DR,

and/or presence of DME according to medical records.

Possible DR was defined as presence of any grade of DR and/or presence of DME according

to medical records.

Prevalence

The prevalence of confirmed STDR in 2008 was estimated based on re-evaluation of 74.9 %

(n=969) of cases planned for re-evaluation (n=1294), which included all possible cases of

STDR except those registered as proliferative DR. In total, the estimation was based on re-

evaluation of 63.9 % of all possible cases of STDR (n=1516), i.e. including cases registered

as severe non-proliferative DR, proliferative DR and/or DME. The exclusion rate for those re-

evaluated was extrapolated to all possible cases.

The prevalence of possible STDR 2008-2016 was calculated for every other year, i.e. 2008,

2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016. Patients with no diagnosis in medical registers in these years but

were registered as having STDR in both surrounding years, i.e. 2007 and 2009 for 2008, were

also included.

The prevalence of diabetes in Värmland 2008-2016 was based on results from a study on the

prevalence of diabetes among individuals ≥20 years in Sweden 2007-2014 and projections to

5

2050[3]. The assumption that the prevalence of diabetes was the same in Värmland County as

in Sweden in general was made in this study.

Statistics Sweden was used to ascertain the number of people ≥20 years old living in

Värmland 2008-2016.

Variables

Diabetes

All patients registered in Melina have diabetes, classified as type 1, type 2 or unknown. If a

patient was classified as unknown in Melina, the specified type was found in Cambio Cosmic.

Data related to diabetes, e.g. duration, type of treatment and HbA1c was also collected.

Visual Acuity

The visual acuity with best correction, i.e. glasses, if present, was used. Visual acuity was

defined using the decimal scale as being in the interval of 0.0 to 1.0. Patients who had a visual

acuity that was registered as P (perception), P+L (perception and localization), or HR (hand

movements) were converted to 0, 0 and 0.01 respectively.

HbA1c

HbA1c was presented in percent (%) in Melina in 2008 as Sweden used the Mono-S standard

prior to 2010. Starting 2010, Sweden uses the IFCC standard and the unit mmol/mol for

HbA1c. HbA1c values were converted to mmol/mol before statistical analysis [20].

HbA1c was missing for 36 patients, 17 in the STDR group and 19 in the control group.

Statistics

A power analysis based on findings of differences in visual acuity in earlier studies was

performed and showed a required population size of 100 in each group to achieve a power of

0.8[18,21]. Presence of STDR was used as dependent variable in all statistical analysis. Chi-

square test was used for nominal variables. Student’s t-test was used for parametric

continuous variables and Mann Whitney-U for non-parametric continuous variables,

respectively. Visual acuity, a non-parametric continuous variable, was described as median

with minimum and maximum values as well as means. Linear regression was used to

calculate trends over time. The software used for statistical analysis was SPSS version 21.

6

Ethics

This study was approved by Uppsala Ethics Vetting Committee (2017/092). Consent was not

gathered from patients included in this study. All data was anonymized post collection by

designating each patient a unique number with only the main author and supervisor having

access to the key.

Results

Of the possible cases of STDR in 2008 that were manually re-evaluated 42.2 % did not meet

criteria for STDR. Extrapolated to all cases of possible STDR in 2008, the prevalence of

confirmed STDR among adult diabetics in Värmland in 2008 would be 6.8 % (n=876). The

prevalence of possible STDR and DR among adult diabetic subjects was 11.7 % (n=1516) and

28.3 % (n=3668) in 2008, respectively. The prevalence of possible STDR and DR in

Värmland between 2008 and 2016 decreased by 4.0 % and 8.2 %, respectively (figure 2).

Both trends were statistically significant, p=0.001 for STDR and p=0.004 for DR. The

proportion of STDR to total DR, i.e. any grade of DR, decreased by approximately 3 % over

the same time period, from 41 to 38 %.

Type of diabetes, diabetes duration, diet and insulin treatment, HbA1c and visual acuity in best

and worst eye were statistically different between the STDR group and the age- and sex

matched control group, while treatment with oral antidiabetics and presence of hypertension

7

was not (table 1). Means for visual acuity for the better-seeing eye were 0.89 and 0.95, and

0.73 and 0.82 for the worst-seeing eye, in the STDR and non-STDR group, respectively.

Discussion

Diabetic retinopathy is still one of the most common causes of blindness in the world. This

study estimates that the prevalence of confirmed STDR among diabetics ≥20 years in

Värmland in 2008 was 6.8 %. Another finding was that the prevalence of DR and STDR may

have decreased in Värmland between 2008 and 2016, based on trends of possible cases.

Patients with confirmed STDR in 2008 were found to have significantly longer diabetes

duration, higher proportion of insulin treatment, higher HbA1c and lower visual acuity in both

the best- and worst-seeing eye, compared to non-STDR patients.

This study included all known diabetic patients ≥20 years with STDR in Värmland County by

identifying patients with STDR in medical records. Värmland County, with its homogeneous

health care system and stable population figures, is ideal for this purpose. To confirm possible

cases of STDR, fundus photographs were re-evaluated by two experienced graders. The

exclusion rate for both graders was similar, which indicate that their assessments were

equivalent.

The estimated prevalence of confirmed STDR among diabetics ≥20 years in 2008 in this

study was approximately two thirds, i.e. 3.4 percentage points lower, of the estimated

8

prevalence of STDR worldwide of 10.2 % presented in a meta-analysis, which pooled

population based studies conducted between 1980 and 2008 [4]. However, there are several

limitations with this comparison, the most essential being that STDR was not defined in the

same way in the different studies. While our study defined STDR as severe non-proliferative

or proliferative DR and/or DME, the meta-analysis defined STDR as proliferative DR and/or

DME [4]. Thus, despite a wider definition, the prevalence of STDR estimated in this study

was still lower than a global estimate. Finally, the prevalence of STDR reported in individual

studies vary greatly, e.g. 6.7-34.9 % and 4.3-8.2 % in type 1 and type 2 diabetics, respectively

[22].

The trends of prevalence of possible DR and STDR agree with trends presented in other

studies, i.e. that the prevalence of DR has been decreasing in the western world in the 21st

century [23,24]. The factors associated with STDR in this study, e.g. diabetes type 1, longer

diabetes duration and higher HbA1c, are similar to findings in earlier studies [4,25,26].

A limitation of this study was the size of the cohort used to compare functional outcome

between subjects with and without STDR. This might affect how the result are applicable. A

greater generality could have been achieved by including a larger cohort, but as the re-

evaluation process of fundus photographs was time consuming the cohort was limited.

Furthermore, the power analysis was performed based on only a couple of studies, explained

by the fact that there are not many studies addressing the differences in visual acuity between

patients with and without STDR, upon which the power analysis was based [18,21].

Clinical grading lacks the consistency of research studies. Grading DR varies within and

between individual graders, and over time. This may be the explanation as to why there was a

discrepancy in the prevalence of confirmed STDR compared to possible STDR, and might

affect the trend of STDR that was observed in this study. As mentioned above, two physicians

conducted the re-evaluation process in this study. However, while manual grading of DR is

considered the golden standard and the exclusion rate was similar for both evaluators,

automated software grading of fundus photographs would create the most consistent grading

and may be used in future studies [27].

This study did not consider the possible number of patients with undiagnosed diabetes with

STDR, which theoretically could have affected the results. However, according to existing

data, the frequency of STDR in type 2 diabetics is low at diagnosis [28].

9

The exclusion rate of possible STDR in 2008 during the re-evaluation process was 42.2 %,

which suggest significant overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis may be addressed through further

training in evaluation of fundus photographs or an automated process. However, there may be

a declining level of overdiagnosis as explanation of the trends of possible DR and STDR

2008-2016 found in this study, without or in combination with a real decline in prevalence.

Information on incidence would contribute to the understanding of the decreasing prevalence

on clinically diagnosed diabetic retinopathy, i.e. possible DR. In this pilot study we do not

investigate incidence, but we recognize that it would be of great interest. Such data might be

difficult to achieve since there is considerable variability in grading no/mild retinopathy.

Thus, it would be necessary for a meticulously procedure for re-evaluation. Furthermore,

regarding that most subjects have no or mild retinopathy, it would subsequently result in more

than 50 000 retinal examinations to re-evaluate during our study period of eight years.

However, if an automated grading procedure could be used this might be possible. For future

work using manual evaluation, it might be feasible to present data on the incidence of STDR.

The current study adds to existing evidence regarding characteristics of diabetic subjects with

DR and STDR, but also adds new evidence, specifically in the form of prevalence figures and

possible trends for DR and STDR in a part of Sweden, as well as the finding that patients with

STDR have worse visual acuity.

Conclusions

This retrospective study of STDR provides an updated estimate on the impact of DR and

STDR. A knowledge of utmost importance to plan future health care from a cost –

effectiveness perspective. The prevalence of STDR in a Swedish County in 2008 was

estimated to 6.8 %, lower than a global estimate of 10.2 %. The lower proportion of STDR

compared to DR over time might reflect the great improvements in diabetes care in the last

decades. If the slightly but significant worse visual acuity among STDR patients found in this

study are confirmed in the further analysis of this research, it will be informative for patients

whose worry for blindness is based on older studies. Further research is needed on the

prevalence of DR and visual outcome to plan the future need in health care and for adequate

information to patients.

10

Acknowledgements

I want to give my sincerest thanks to my supervisor, ophthalmologist Karl-Johan Hellgren, for

his constant support and optimism in the face of difficulties. I also want to thank Ali Sharif,

resident in ophthalmology, tasked with the monumental mission to manually re-evaluate

fundus photographs for over a thousand patients.

11

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Populärvetenskaplig sammanfattning

Diabetes är en sjukdom som på lång sikt skadar små blodkärl i kroppen och ger upphov till

olika komplikationer. Vanligaste komplikationen är diabetesretinopati, som innebär att

blodkärlen i ögats näthinna skadas. Initialt har patienten inga symtom. Långt gången

diabetesretinopati kallas synhotande diabetesretinopati och innebär en stor risk för

synnedsättning och blindhet. Synhotande förändringar kan ofta behandlas för att förhindra

fortsatt försämring av synen.

Sverige har ett screeningprogram* för diabetesretinopati hos diabetiker för att kunna behandla

i tid. Sedan detta infördes har synproblem minskat, åtminstone delvis förklarat av förbättrad

diabetesbehandling.

Det saknas dock viktig kunskap på det här området. Studiens syften var att bland diabetiker i

Värmland uppskatta (1) förekomsten av synhotande diabetesretinopati år 2008, (2)

förekomsten av möjlig** diabetesretinopati och förekomst, och proportion av, synhotande

diabetesretinopati från år 2008 till 2016, samt (3) undersöka skillnader mellan diabetiker med

och utan synhotande diabetesretinopati.

6,8 % av diabetikerna i Värmland 2008 uppskattas haft synhotande diabetesretinopati, jämfört

med en uppskattning på 10,2 % globalt. Vi såg också en möjlig minskning av

diabetesretinopati och synhotande diabetesretinopati i Värmland 2008 och 2016. Diabetiker

med synhotande diabetesretinopati hade sämre syn och mer ogynnsamma faktorer,

exempelvis haft diabetes under längre tid, än patienterna de jämfördes med.

Detta är den första av flera planerade studier, med långsiktigt mål att kunna utvärdera

screeningprogrammet. De spännande resultaten som pekar på minskad förekomst av

diabetesretinopati kommer studeras närmare i projektets fortsättning.

*Systematisk undersökning av individer med risk för en viss sjukdom.

**Antal patienter som registrerats ha diabetesretinopati i journal.

Cover letter

Editor-in-Chief December 1st, 2017.

British Journal of Ophthalmology

Dear Editor,

Please find enclosed a manuscript entitled “Sight-threatening Diabetic Retinopathy in a

Swedish County – Prevalence and Comparison of Patients with and without Sight-threatening

Diabetic Retinopathy”, which we hope will be considered for publication in the British

Journal of Ophthalmology. It is a retrospective record study including all patients with

diabetic retinopathy (DR) registered in medical records in Värmland County, Sweden. It

investigates the prevalence of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in 2008 and

compares patients with and without STDR regarding visual acuity and diabetic factors.

Furthermore, the study estimates trends of prevalence of DR and prevalence and proportion of

STDR over an eight-year period.

The estimated prevalence of STDR in Värmland in 2008 was 6.8 %, lower than the global

estimate of 10.2 %. STDR was associated with worse visual acuity and unfavorable diabetic

factors, e.g. longer duration, and the prevalence of DR and STDR, as well as the proportion of

STDR to any DR, may have decreased from 2008 to 2016.

To our knowledge no previous population based study of diabetes in the western world has

reported prevalence of both DR and STDR over time, as well as compared visual acuity of

diabetics with and without STDR. The impact of the burden of diabetes is a pressing issue and

of great interest for the readers of the BJO. This manuscript is not being considered for

publication elsewhere.

Sincerely,

Sebastian Gustafsson, Bachelor of Medicine

Örebro University

Ethical considerations

This study was approved by Uppsala Ethics Vetting Committee (2017/092). Consent was not

gathered from patients included in this study. All data was anonymized post collection with

only the main author and supervisor having access to the key.

Diabetes and its complications are prevalent and serious, which explains why there are several

kinds of screening programs for diabetics in place. Studies based on present screening

programs are paramount as to evaluate and improve those screening procedures, and

treatments, in the future.

Patients in this and similar studies, i.e. prevalence studies, are not exposed to different

interventions, but merely observed. From an ethical standpoint, this might be superior, as no

patient by design is exposed to an intervention that is hypothesized to be inferior to the

intervention received by another patient.

Absence of patient consent is frequent in this type of study and presents an ethical issue.

While consent may be impossible to retrieve in some cases, e.g. deceased patients, it is

important to analyze available options and ethical arguments. The integrity of each patient

must also be considered in all clinical studies on humans, with as few people as possible

having access to a key to link data to specific patients.

The current study cannot be claimed to bring any direct advantages or disadvantages to the

specific study population. However, it might be a part in improving the treatment of patients

with diabetic retinopathy in the future and may therefore be motivated.