Sifting our way to generational insights
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Transcript of Sifting our way to generational insights
Generational ForesightSifting our way to generational insights
What Makes People Tick?
Genetic differences
Spatial differences
Temporal differences
Generations = Cohort Effects
Period EffectsChanges that affect all generations similarly
Life Cycle EffectsDifferences due to aging and life cycle
Cohort EffectsChanges that affect
generations differently
Strauss & Howe’s Saeculum
Theory
Social and Economic wave theories• Kondratiev, Elliot, Kuznet waves• Carlota Perez’ techno-economic paradigms
GENERATIONS ARE FORMED
BY EVENTS THAT HAPPEN
DURING THEIR FORMATIVE YEARS
Black swans can cause generational change
10% 30% 50% 70%
THE EFFECTSCOME IN
AT LEAST FIFTY SHADES
OF GREY
But generational shifts are rarely absolute
Aren’t coefficients sexy enough?
Good Generational Insights are Based on Quantitative Statistics
How Else Do We
even try to
Genera(tiona)lize
Billions of People?
Key:Representative, Longitudinal Data Sets
The MTV/Chevrolet survey:
“75% of Millennials would rather give up social media
for a day than their car ,and 72% said they would rather
give up texting for a week than their car."
Be selective and ambiguous. Then spread the news!
How to win the internet
Give up my car forever
or for a day?
Common survey problemsConfirmation bias: Getting results that support the stakeholder’s mission. Often results are ambiguous. Conveniently lends itself to “Internet truthiness”.
Biased generational narrative: Larger generations typically get more press.
Sampling bias: More research done on affluent members of all generations. Purchasing power and easier to reach.
Leading questions: “Would you rather save the world or make lots of money?” Better: Look for documented behavioral change.
Past focus: Fact tanks and market researchers are often too late to the game.
Psychometric assessment: How we perceive extreme values could vary with generation. E.g. younger gens favoring extreme values (vernacular “totally, “epic”+ grade inflation) Metrics like the Likert scale could create generationally skewed results.
From Baby Center’s “Millennial Moms” survey (2014) N= 1633, Millennials (18-32): 804 , GenX (33-44): 829
Find Five Faults1 Millennials both more
involved and relaxed than X’ers?
2 Age-related perception of extreme values
3 Self-assessment ≠ objective - generationally skewed?
4 Absence of longitudinal data - moms in different phases of parenting
5 Wouldn’t it be nice to know the distributions within each category?
Data-Mine User Generated Content?Facebook users’ word frequency based on age
Sentiment Analyze Emoticons?
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
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Or Big IoT Data?
But who owns it?
IN THE ENDDATA WILL NEVER BE PERFECT,
WE CAN ONLY APPLY OUR B.S. FILTERS
“We're all just a bunch of sinners, but we do the best we can.”
Dolly Parton
Photo: Yahoo Images
Thank You!
To learn more please visit
Afterthemillennials.com@aftermillennial512-568-4941