ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING
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Transcript of ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING
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8/12/2019 ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING
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CRISIL IER IndependentEquityResearch
Enhancing investment decisions
Shriram City UnionFinance Ltd
Q2FY14 Results Update
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Shriram City Union Finance LtdAUM growth muted; gold loan segment drove disbursements
Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned)
Industry Consumer Finance
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November 6, 2013
Fair Value 1,059CMP 1,097
For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.inCRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.
Shriram City Union Finance Ltds (Shriram Citys) Q2FY14 results were in line with CRISIL
Researchs expectations. Disbursements grew 9% q-o-q helped by 82.8% q-o-q increase ingold loan disbursements as traders borrowed to increase supplies ahead of the festiveseason. The overall disbursement growth was arrested by political disruptions in AndhraPradesh which impacted non-gold business segments. Andhra Pradesh constitutes 45-48%of its total disbursements. Assets under management (AUM) declined by 1.8% q-o-q (down5% y-o-y) to 151 bn. Following lower-than-expected AUM growth in H1FY14, we lower ourFY14 AUM growth estimates to 14.6% from 21.1%. We expect H2FY14 AUM growth to bebetter than H1FY14 as we expect (i) the momentum in gold loans to continue in H2FY14 dueto higher gold prices and loan requirement from traders and (ii) non-gold business growth torevive, as the management believes that business in AP will stabilise soon. We maintain ourfundamental grade of 4/5.
Non-gold disbursements muted q-o-q while gold loan disbursements revivedTotal disbursements grew by 9.0% q-o-q to 35.6 bn with gold loan disbursements increasing
82.9% q-o-q to 11 bn. Disbursements excluding gold loans declined by 8% q-o-q to 24 bnowing to the political turmoil (Telangana issue) in Andhra Pradesh which hampered normalbusiness activities. SME (major AUM contributor) disbursements declined 9% to 13 bn.Spreads rose marginally by 31 bps q-o-q to 8.7% because yields grew 37 bps q-o-q to 20.6%owing to higher contribution from high-yielding SME loans (up by 300 bps q-o-q to 49%).
Asset quality deteriorated marginally following a weak macro environmentGross NPAs grew marginally by 17 bps to 2.46% in Q2FY14 following a weak macro-economic environment. Hence, overall gross NPAs (150 days past due) grew 7% q-o-q to3.8 bn. Credit costs declined by 9% q-o-q (down 20 bps to 2.4% of AUM), which led to PATincreasing 8% q-o-q to 1,272 mn. Net NPAs were flat at 0.7% of AUM. The companydeclared an interim dividend of 4 per share in Q2FY14.
Tier I capital improved on warrant conversion
In July 2013, the pending 3.05 warrants, out of 5.9 mn warrants issued in FY12, gotconverted into shares (one share per warrant) at an exercise price of 570. Hence, tier Icapital increased by 278 bps q-o-q to 18.3%, taking the total capital adequacy ratio to 23.3%.We had already factored in the warrant conversion in our model.
Earnings estimates largely maintained, fair value retained at 1,059Following lower-than-expected AUM growth in H1FY14, we lower our FY14 AUM growthestimates to 14.6% from 21.1%. On account of lower-than-expected provisions in H1FY14,we lower provision estimates by 7% in FY14. Accordingly, we largely retain our FY14 PATestimates. We continue to value Shriram City using the P/B method. Our fair value ismaintained at 1,059 (1.9x FY15 adjusted book value and valuing housing subsidiary at bookvalue). At the current market price of 1,097 per share, our valuation grade is 3/5.
KEY FORECAST
( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ETotal operating income 8,082 11,238 16,441 18,536 23,811Pre-provision profit 4,841 7,138 10,495 11,546 14,878
Adjusted net profit 2,406 3,425 4,496 4,995 6,425EPS 49 67 81 85 110P/E (x) 12.8 13.0 13.5 12.8 10.0P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9RoE (%) 21.8 24.0 22.7 19.7 20.5RoA (%) 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1Net NPA (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2Capital adequacy ratio (%) 20.8 17.0 18.6 21.3 19.6
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 6221/20929
NSE/BSE tickerSHRIRAMCIT/
SHRMCITYFace Value ( per share) 10Shares outstanding (mn) 59.3Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 59,537/96852-week range ( ) (H/L) 1,230/755Beta 0.2Free float (%) 62.4%
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 20,107
Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 20.6
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKETReturns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-mShriram City -9% 2% -6% 21%CNX 500 5% 4% 1% 4%
ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected] John [email protected] Vishal Rampuria [email protected]
Client servicing desk+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
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Valuation Grade
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d a m e n
t a l G r a
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PoorFundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
S t r o n g
D o w n s i
d e
S t r o n g
U p s
i d e
55.0% 57.3% 57.3%
37.6%
25.1% 25.2% 26.2%
25.9%
5.8% 4.3% 4.0%
3.0%
14.1% 13.1% 12.6%
33.5%
0%
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40%
50%
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Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
Promoter FII DII Others
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CRISIL IER IndependentEquityResearch
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Q2FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)
( mn) Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Q2FY13 q-o-q ( %) y-o-y ( %) H1FY14 H1FY13 y-o-y ( %)
Interes t Income 7,846 7,884 7,594 (0.5) 3.3 15,730 14,320 9.8 Interes t Expense 3,428 3,560 3,552 (3.7) (3.5) 6,987 6,569 6.4
Net Interest Income 4,419 4,324 4,042 2.2 9.3 8,743 7,751 12.8
Non Interest Income 140 174 1 (19.5) NM 314 13 NM
Total Operating Income 4,559 4,498 4,043 1.4 12.8 9,056 7,764 16.6
Operating Expenses 1,686 1,660 1,459 1.6 15.6 3,347 2,726 22.8
Staff Costs 631 649 476 (2.8) 32.6 1,280 824 55.3
Other Operating Expenses 1,055 1,012 983 4.3 7.4 2,067 1,901 8.7 Cost to income 38.6% 38.4% 37.6% 16 bps 96 bps 38.5% 36.5% 205 bps
Pre- provision profit (PPP) 2,873 2,837 2,584 1.2 11.2 5,710 5,038 13.3
Provisions and writ e offs 919 1,010 924 (9.0) (0.6) 1,929 1,805 6.8
Profit before depreciation and tax 1,954 1,827 1,660 6.9 17.7 3,781 3,233 17.0
Depreciation On Fixed Assets 73 68 63 7.4 16.5 141 105 34.5 PBT 1,881 1,760 1,597 6.9 17.7 3,640 3,128 16.4
Provision for tax 609 585 518 4.0 17.5 1,194 1,015 17.7
Adjusted Net Profit 1,272 1,174 1,079 8.3 17.9 2,446 2,113 15.7
No of equity shares (mn) 59.3 55.4 52.4 7.0 13.2 59 52.4 13.2
Adj EPS ( ) 21.8 21.2 20.6 2.9 5.8 43.0 40.4 6.5
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Total operating income up 1.4% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y PAT increased 8% q-o-q and 18% y-o-y
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
2 , 6
0 2
2 , 7
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59% 60%55% 56%
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0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500
4,0004,5005,000
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Q 4 F Y 1 2
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
( mn)
Total operating income y-o-y growth (RHS)
8 1 1
8 3 5
9 7 6
1 , 0
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1 , 0
7 9
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26% 29%
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14%18%
-10%
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( mn)
PAT y-o-y growth (RHS)
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CRISIL IER IndependentEquityResearch
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Cost to income ratio remains flat q-o-q Gross NPAs rose by 17 bps sequentially
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Tier I capital rose by 278 bps q-o-q on warrant conversion Trend in return ratios
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-Indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research
35.2%
38.3%
35.9%35.2%
37.6%39.6%
36.4%38.4%
38.6%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q 2 F Y 1 2
Q 3 F Y 1 2
Q 4 F Y 1 2
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
1.72% 1.64% 1.55% 1.46% 1.37%1.57%
2.19% 2.29%2.46%
0.41% 0.37% 0.38% 0.34% 0.32%0.47%
0.80%0.67% 0.65%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Q 2 F Y 1 2
Q 3 F Y 1 2
Q 4 F Y 1 2
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
Gross NPA Net NPA
13.7% 13.5% 12.6% 12.2% 12.5%14.9% 15.6%
18.3%
2.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7%3.7%
4.3%
4.9%16.4% 16.9% 15.9% 15.5% 16.2%
18.6%19.9%
23.3%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
Q 3 F Y 1 2
Q 4 F Y 1 2
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
Tier I ratio Tier II ratio Capital adequacy ratio (RHS)
3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.3%
24.4%23.9%
24.6%23.1% 23.0% 22.7% 23.4%
20.4% 20.2%
0%
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Q 2 F Y 1 2
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ROA ROE
0
50
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J a n - 0
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M a y - 0
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Shriram City CNX 500
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1,000
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('000)( )
Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value
Shriram City
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Shriram City Union Finance Ltd
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Segment-wise NPAs
Product segment
Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
GrossNPA %
NetNPA %
GrossNPA %
NetNPA %
GrossNPA %
NetNPA %
GrossNPA %
NetNPA %
GrossNPA %
NetNPA %
GrossNPA %
NetNPA %
Consumer durables 3.1% 0.6% 3.7% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0%Two wheelers 3.2% 1.3% 3.5% 1.2% 3.6% 1.2% 3.7% 1.2% 3.8% 1.2% 3.8% 0.8%
Auto loans 3.2% 0.7% 3.8% 0.7% 3.6% 0.6% 3.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.5% 3.7% 0.4%Personal loans 4.1% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%Small enterprises finance 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3%Total excluding gold loans 2.6% 0.6% 2.6% 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 2.7% 0.6% 2.6% 0.4%Gold loans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4%Total - including gold loans 1.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 2.3% 0.7%
Source: Company
Key takeaways from Q2FY14 conference callAUM outlook Excluding gold loans, AUM growth is expected to be 20% in FY14.
Overall AUM growth including gold loans can be around 20%.
Asset quality The entire book remains under 150 days past due (dpd) NPA recognition norms.
Write-off during Q2FY14 was 761 mn compared to 825 mn in Q1FY14
Borrowings Almost 49% of the liability is at a fixed rate of interest. The weighted average t enure of
liability is over 26 months.
In Q2FY14, the company securitised 6 bn at a weighted average rate of 8.38%.
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Valuation Grade: 3/5Our fair value is 1,059 (1.8x FY15E adjusted book value and valuing the housing subsidiary
at book value). At the current market price of 1,097 per share, our valuation grade is 3/5.
One-year forward P/B band P/B movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
CRISIL IER reports released on Shriram City Union Finance Ltd
Date Nature of reportFundamental
grade Fair valueValuation
gradeCMP
(on the date of report)28-Jun-11 Initiating coverage 3/5 673 4/5 541
12-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 673 5/5 57015-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 3/5 673 5/5 52006-Mar-12 Q3FY12 result update 3/5 733 4/5 58810-July-12 Detailed report 3/5 746 4/5 64001-Aug-12 Q1FY13 result update 3/5 746 3/5 70807-Nov-12 Q2FY13 result update 3/5 803 3/5 81901-Mar-13 Q3FY13 result update 3/5 1,116 3/5 1,07922-Apr-13 Detailed report 4/5 1,116 4/5 1,00806-June-13 Q4FY13 result update 4/5 1,116 3/5 1,09013-Aug-13 Q1FY14 result update 4/5 1,059 4/5 88106-Nov-13 Q2FY14 result update 4/5 1,059 3/5 1,097
0200
400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
J u l - 0 7
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( )
Shriram City 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x
0.0
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J u l - 1 1
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(Times)
1yr Fwd PB (x) Median PB
+1 std dev
-1 std dev
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Annexure: Financials (Standalone)
Source: CRISIL Research
Income Statement Ratios
( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E ( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENet Interest Income 8,054 11,108 16,326 18,318 23,561 Spread AnalysisNon Interest Income 28 129 114 217 250 Yield on AUM 21.1% 19.0% 20.8% 20.6% 20.6%Total Operating Income 8,082 11,238 16,441 18,536 23,811 Cost of borrowings 8.5% 10.8% 12. 5% 12.4% 12. 4%Operating Expenses 3,241 4,100 5,946 6,989 8,933 Net Int eres t Margin (NIM) 12. 2% 10.4% 11. 2% 10.8% 11. 1%Staff Costs 437 924 2,240 1,869 2,755 Return RatiosOther Operating Expenses 2,804 3,176 3,706 5,121 6,178 ROA (%) 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1%Pre- provision profit (PPP) 4,841 7,138 10,495 11,546 14,878 ROE (%) 21.8% 24.0% 22.7% 19.7% 20.5%Provision & Contingency 1,160 1,760 3,594 3,885 4,969 Growth ratiosProfit before depreciation and tax 3,681 5,379 6,901 7,662 9,909 Assets under Management (AUM) 53.4% 67.9% 17.8% 14.6% 33.6% Depreciation On Fixed Assets 75 137 244 266 319 Disbursements 58.9% 75.4% 25.3% 14.1% 25.7%PBT 3,606 5,242 6,657 7,396 9,590 Net Interest Income 31.3% 37.9% 47.0% 12.2% 28.6%Provision for tax 1,200 1,717 2,160 2,400 3,165 Non Interest Income -80.6% 366.7% -11.6% 90.0% 15.0%Adjusted Net Profit 2,406 3,425 4,496 4,995 6,425 Total Operating Income 28.7% 39.1% 46.3% 12.7% 28.5%
Operating Expenses 39.5% 26.5% 45.0% 17.6% 27.8%Staff Costs 20.9% 111.5% 142.5% -16.6% 47.4%Pre- provision profit (PPP) 22.4% 47.5% 47.0% 10.0% 28.9%Provision & Contingency -0.5% 51.7% 104.3% 8.1% 27.9%
Balancesheet Adjusted Net Profit 31.8% 46.5% 27.5% 11.1% 28.6%( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EPS 30.7% 38.6% 20.5% 5.2% 28.6%Share Capital Book Value 20.4% 34.7% 22.7% 19.6% 21.3%Equity share capital 495 524 554 585 585 Asset QualityEquity Share warrants - 844 436 - - Gross NPA (%) 1.9% 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%Reserves 11,605 15,859 21,382 27,675 33,689 Net NPA (%) 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%Shareholders Funds 12,100 17,226 22,372 28,260 34,274 Valuation Data
P/e (x) 12.8 13.0 13.5 12.8 10.0Borrowings 73,698 97,633 128,553 141,479 185,258 P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9Other Liabilities & Provisions 11,135 16,926 10,456 10,978 11,527 Key ParametersDeferred tax liability - 43 46 46 46 Total AUM ( bn) 80 134 158 181 242 Sources of funds 96,933 131,829 161,428 180,763 231,106 Disbursements ( bn) 79 139 174 199 250
Capitalisation ratiosCash & Bank Balances 21,654 13,277 22,705 24,322 28,300 Capital adequacy ratio (%) 20.8 17.0 18.6 21.3 19.6Investments 53 176 1,174 1,760 2,128 Tier I capital ratio (%) 16.2 13.5 14.6 16.7 15.4Net Loans and advances 70,437 111,582 135,850 146,610 190,988 Tier II capital ratio (%) 4.6 3.5 4.0 4.7 4.2Net Fixed As sets and Capit al WIP 274 512 872 993 1,219 Efficiency ratioDeferred tax asset 158 175 235 235 235 Cost to Income ratio (%) 41.0 37.7 37.6 39.1 38.9Other Assets 4,357 6,106 592 6,844 8,237 Opex/ average assets (%) 4.1 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.5Application of funds 96,933 131,829 161,428 180,763 231,106 Leverage (x) 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.0 5.4
Quarterly FinancialsPer share ( mn) Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Total operating income 4,043 4,250 4,712 4,498 4,559 Adj EPS ( ) 49 67 81 85 110 Change (q-o-q) 9% 5% 11% -5% 1%
Adj Book Value ( ) 238 321 384 475 580 PAT 1,079 1,126 1,257 1,174 1,272 Dividend per share ( ) 3.5 4.0 6.0 6 6 Change (q-o-q) 4% 4% 12% -7% 8%
Actual o/s shares 50 52 55 59 59 EPS 20.6 21.4 23.2 21.2 21.5
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CRISIL IER IndependentEquityResearch
CRISIL Research Team
President
Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]
Analytical Contacts
Sandeep Sabharwal Senior Director, Capital Markets +91 22 4097 8052 [email protected]
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Manoj Mohta Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3554 [email protected]
Sudhir Nair Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3526 [email protected]
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Ajay D'Souza Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3567 [email protected]
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Business Development
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Email : [email protected] : +91 9987855771
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Ankur Nehra Regional ManagerEmail : [email protected] : +91 9999575639
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Our Capabilities
Making Markets Function Better
Economy and Industry Research Largest team of economy and industry research analysts in India Coverage on 70 industries and 139 sub-sectors; provide growth forecasts, profitability analysis, emerging trends,
expected investments, industry structure and regulatory frameworks
90 per cent of Indias commercial banks use our industry research for credit decisions Special coverage on key growth sectors including real estate, infrastructure, logistics, and financial services Inputs to Indias leading corporates in market sizing, demand forecasting, and project feasibility
Published the first India-focused report on Ultra High Net-worth Individuals All opinions and forecasts reviewed by a highly qualified panel with over 200 years of cumulative experience
Funds and Fixed Income Research Largest and most comprehensive database on Indias debt market, covering more than 15,000 securities Largest provider of fixed income valuations in India Value more than 53 trillion (USD 960 billion) of Indian debt securities, comprising outstanding securities Sole provider of fixed income and hybrid indices to mutual funds and insurance companies; we maintain 12
standard indices and over 100 customised indices
Ranking of Indian mutual fund schemes covering 70 per cent of assets under management and 4.7 trillion(USD 85 billion) by value
Retained by Indias Employees Provident Fund Organisation, the worlds largest retirement scheme coveringover 60 million individuals, for selecting fund managers and monitoring their performance
Equity and Company Research Largest independent equity research house in India, focusing on small and mid-cap companies; coverage
exceeds 125 companies
Released company reports on 1,442 companies listed and traded on the National Stock Exchange; a global firstfor any stock exchange
First research house to release exchange-commissioned equity research reports in India Assigned the first IPO grade in India
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8/12/2019 ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING
14/14
Our OfficeAhmedabad706, Venus AtlantisNr. Reliance Petrol PumpPrahladnagar, Ahmedabad, IndiaPhone: +91 79 4024 4500Fax: +91 79 2755 9863
Hyderabad3rd Floor, Uma ChambersPlot No. 9&10, Nagarjuna Hills,(Near Punjagutta Cross Road)Hyderabad - 500 482, IndiaPhone: +91 40 2335 8103/05Fax: +91 40 2335 7507
Bengaluru
W-101, Sunrise Chambers,22, Ulsoor Road,Bengaluru - 560 042, IndiaPhone: +91 80 2558 0899
+91 80 2559 4802Fax: +91 80 2559 4801
Kolkata
Horizon, Block 'B', 4th Floor57 Chowringhee RoadKolkata - 700 071, IndiaPhone: +91 33 2289 1949/50Fax: +91 33 2283 0597
ChennaiThapar House,43/44, Montieth Road, Egmore,Chennai - 600 008, IndiaPhone: +91 44 2854 6205/06
+91 44 2854 6093Fax: +91 44 2854 7531
Pune1187/17, Ghole Road,Shivaji Nagar,Pune - 411 005, IndiaPhone: +91 20 2553 9064/67
Fax: +91 20 4018 1930
GurgaonPlot No. 46Sector 44Opp. PF OfficeGurgaon - 122 003, IndiaPhone: +91 124 6722 000
CRISIL Ltd is a Standard & Poor's company
CRISIL LimitedCRISIL House, Central Avenue,Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai 400076. IndiaPhone: +91 22 3342 3000 | Fax: +91 22 3342 8088www.crisil.com