1. 1. Should intensification remain the core driver of livestock improvement initiatives with the Livestock and Fish Program in its current form, and in some expended form Michael Blummel Livestock and Fish Review and Planning Meeting March 23-25, 2015 Virtual
2. 2. Key considerations regards role of intensification Rational for current CRP: more animal sourced food for and by the poor Context: Livestock Revolution
3. 3. Current daily meat consumption in different spheres of the globe and convergent meat1 consumption levels recommended for 2050 based on human health and environmental2 considerations3 Country/category Current consumption Recommended consumption (g/d)1 Developed countries 224 g/d Latin America 147 g/d 90 g/d or 20 g/d animal protein Developing countries 47 g/d Africa 31g/d Data modified from McMichael et al. (2007) by Blmmel et al. (2014). 1 A maximum of 50% red4 meat. ASF equivalents: 45 kg of fish, 60 kg of eggs and 230 kg of milk5
4. 4. (2005-06) 2020 2020 (fixed LP Milk (million tons) 91.8 172 172 yield/day (kg) 3.6 5.24 6.76 Numbers (000) 69759 89920 * 69759 Metabolizable energy requirements (MJ x 109) Maintenance 1247.64 1608.22 1247.6 Production 573.94 1075.00 1075.00 total 1821.58 2683.22 2326.66 Feed Req.( m tons) 247.50 364.57 315.6 Anandan et al. 2013 * Calculated based on Compound Aggregated Growth Rate (CAGR) Livestock revolution: Intensification and feed energy and biomass requirements
5. 5. Assume: Farmer A: 5 cattle each giving 2 liter milk day Farmer B: 1 cattle giving 10 liters milk per day Which farmer needs more feed? Which farmer need more water, produces more GHG Would similar considerations apply, say to labor? It seems obvious but.
6. 6. Conclusions Under the assumption of growing demand for ASF to be met by domestic or regional produce, intensification will be required because: Natural resource use relative to ASF produce need to be reduced GHG relative to ASF produce need to be reduced ASF production needs to be economically and socially attractive Focus can adjusted be modified if L & F will be charged with taking on more system and resilience aspects
7. 7. CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world. CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish livestockfish.cgiar.org