Shonali Pachauri and Daniel Spreng

Some remarks on the choice and use of

indicators of development

Content

General considerations

Time scale and level of aggregation (number of people, geographic space)

Degree of change

Where is it happening?

In function of what is it happening?

Example: Energy use and number of people per family

Naïve view

Decrease of family size: an important attribute of development

Informed view

Conclusions

Time scaleEmployment in the three sectors (Switzerland)

Services

Industry & trade

Agriculture1940 2020

Services

Level of aggregation

Country:

Household:

time

time time time

ECountry = EHouseholds (transitions taking place over the years)

? ? ?

E

E E E

Traditional fuel

Modern fuel

Degree of change

Country:

Household:

time

time time time

ECountry = EHouseholds (transitions taking place over the years)

? ? ?

E

E E E

Traditional fuel

Modern fuel

Clearly a transformation: Depict what is coming to an end

ECountry = EHouseholds (transitions taking place over the years)

time

E

Traditional fuel

Modern fuelHousehold:

Where is it happening?

Calculations based on NSS data, round 55 (year 1999-2000).

Electrificationof the districts

Calculations based on NSS data, round 55 (year 1999-2000).

Level of aggregation

Person

Household

Village/district …. occupational group …. decile …

or group with specific characterisation

Country

Globe

The search for groups

Two years of cluster analysis with household survey data (sample of 30'000 to120'000 HH) with about 200 consumption items.

We were looking for “stable” groups like: Tribes people Rural unemployed and landless peasants Traditional merchants and craftsmen Peasants with small farms Big farmers The urban poor Blue-collar employees of western-style firms and factories Servants The new middle class The upper class

More than 60

watt/capita

Two or more warm meals, hot water, lighting, some space heating and – for groups with electri-city, possibly space cooling, plus other electric appliances. Possibly scooter, car.

30-60

watt/capita

Two warm meals per day ( perhaps “farmers portions”), hot water and light. Perhaps small electric appliances (TV, tele-phone, fridge) for groups with electrici-ty. Possibly scooter.

15-30

watt/capita

One to two warm meals per day (for farmers and manual labourers below basic need), a few kerosene lamps or one electric bulb, some hot water

Less than 15

watt/capita

Less than one warm meal per day, a kerosene lamp, possibly a little hot water

LPG, Electricity

and possibly

others

Electricity,

biomass and/or

Kerosene

Biomass and

Kerosene

Useful energy

Examples of energy services, which may

be available in the given intervals

of useful energy

Access

Examples of type of information analyzed:

Nos of people

% of people

% Literate

% Rural

% with Tap water

Avg p.c land holding

Avg p.c. expenditure

The Energy Access-Consumption Matrix

Energy Poverty and Energy Distribution

Social development

Pac

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208

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104

Who is deciding?

Electrification: distinct decisions In states, districts and villages by the utilities But also of the households

Switch to clean cooking fuels Initially some decisions required in the supply chain But mainly a decision for the households

In function of what are decisions taken?

Electrification: distinct decisions In states, districts and villages by the utilities But also of the households

- More a question of whether to step out of the poverty trap and join the “western” technological world or not rather than an economic question

Switch to clean cooking fuels Initially some decisions required in the supply chain But mainly a decision for the households

- Both an economic question and

- A question of attitude of household heads towards women

Energy as a function of what – on which level of aggregation?

A given function on one level will not necessarily

translate into the same function at a different

level of aggregation

Indicators relevant to some decisions may not

be relevant to other decisions

What follows is an example of this: energy use

as a function of household size

The naïve, bottom-up view Smaller households higher per capita energy use – economies of scale

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 >=15

Household size

Per

cap

ita

ener

gy

as a

mu

ltip

le o

f th

at f

or

an a

vg

HH

siz

e=5

Source: Indian Household Consumer Surveys, NSSO, GoI, various years

Drivers of Change in Family Size

Demographic Transition

Lower fertility – fewer births

Lower mortality – longer lives

Health Transition

Fewer communi-cable diseases, more non-communicable

Economic growth Urbanization

Access to better health services

Culture and traditions

Family relations formation and

dissolution

Hygiene and cleanlinessGender roles

Education

Multiplicative relationship between driving forces

Family size

Differences in Family Size – A Broader ViewImplications for energy and development –

What is the composition and characteristic of larger households?

Source: O’Neill & S.Chen 2002

Evidence from the USA:

• Larger house-holds are poorer per capita

• Larger house-holds are com-posed of more children

• Larger house-holds tend to have members in the middle age group