Grading Legistats

12/17/2020

Political Scorecards• Various interest groups produce score cards,

which typically depict how a legislator voted on a selected set of bills.

• Scorecards are designed to:

➢ influence voters

➢ influence legislators

• A single scorecard cannot:

➢ completely describe of a legislator’s record

➢ fully reveal a legislator’s political philosophy

• There is an agenda behind every scorecard!

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Examples of Political Scorecards

• Single Issue or Policy AreaUnited Property Owners of Montana

Montana Contractors’ Association

Montana Chamber of Commerce

Montana Farm Bureau

Montana Family Foundation

National Rifle Association

• IdeologicalAmerican Conservative Union

Americans for Prosperity

Legistats

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What is “Legistats”?

• Former state legislator Ed Butcher from Winifred runs Legistats, Inc. He is touring the state, attacking those legislators who didn’t score well on his scorecard.

• Legistats claims to provide “an objective statistical evaluation of legislators [sic] party loyalty.”

• Legistats claims that it scores all partisan votes, which it defines as “over 50% (the Majority) of the votes ‘FOR’ are from one party, and over 50% of the votes ‘AGAINST’ are from the other party.”

• Legistats claims that the letter grades it assigns indicate “which political party [legislators are] most ideologicallycommitted to work with.”

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Examining Legistats’ Claims

• Does Legistats count the partisan votes it claims to count?

• Does Legistats provide a valid assessment of party loyalty?

• Does Legistats reveal a legislator’s political ideology, philosophy, or stand on issues?

• Does Legistats provide an objective statistical evaluation of voting records?

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House Votes

42

58

6

2019 House Votes

Non-Partisan 855

Partisan 1,022

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But Legistats only includes 620 partisan votes when it assigns grades!

So what about the 400 Missing Votes?

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Legistats Grade Voted Loyally

A 67%

B 78%

C 83%

D 90%

F 93%

Evidence of bias . . .

A Better Way to Measure “Loyalty”

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• The most important votes taken in the Legislature are those on “second reading.”

• The non-partisan Montana Free Press tabulated second reading votes from data available on the Legislature’s web site and then calculated how often legislators voted with their party.

• Assigning grades based on second reading votes reveals:

➢ None of the 20 House members with a F from Legistats fail, and 9 of them earn an A or B.

➢ Of the 20 legislators earning an A from Legistats, 12 earn a D or F.

Legistats vs. Second Reading Loyalty

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Average = 85.6%

92%Greg Hertz(HD 12) LS-A

91%Joshua Kassmier

(HD 27) LS-C

Frank Fleming(HD 51) LS-B

Peggy Webb(HD 43) LS-B

90%Sharon Greef

(HD 88) LF-F

Joe Read(HD 93) LS-D

89%Fred Anderson

(HD 20) LS-F

Julie Dooling(HD 70) LS-F

Frederick (Eric) Moore(HD 37) LS-D

Terry Moore(HD 54) LS-B

Steve Gunderson(HD 1) LS-B

Vince Ricci(HD 55) LS-B

Wylie Galt(HD 30) LS-A

88%David Bedey(HD 86) LS-F

Edward Buttrey(HD 21) LS-F

Joel G Krautter(HD 35) LS-F

Denley M Loge

(HD 14) LS-F

Sue Vinton(HD 56) LS-B

David Dunn(HD 9) LS-B

Seth Berglee(HD 58) LS-A

87%Nancy Ballance

(HD 87) LS-F

Llew Jones(HD 18) LS-F

Bill Mercer(HD 46) LS-C

John Fuller (HD 8) LS-B

Dan Bartel(HD 29) LS-B

Dennis R Lenz(HD 53) LS-A

Becky Beard(HD 80) LS-A

86%Ross H Fitzgerald

(HD 17) LS-F

Kenneth L Holmlund(HD 38) LS-F

Wendy McKamey(HD 19) LS-F

Ray L Shaw(HD 71) LS-F

Dale Mortensen(HD 44) LS-B

Casey Knudsen(HD 33) LS-A

Lola Sheldon-Galloway(HD 22) LS-A

85%Mike Hopkins

(HD 92) LS-F

Walt Sales(HD 69) LS-F

Tom Welch(HD 72) LS-F

Bob Brown(HD 13) LS-A

84%Frank Garner

(HD 7) LS-F

Rhonda Knudsen(HD 34) LS-A

Barry Usher(HD 40) LS-A

Rodney Garcia(HD 52) LS-D

Derek Skees(HD 11) LS-A

Alan Redfield(HD 59) LS-A

83%Bruce Grubbs

(HD 68) LS-F

Daniel Zolnikov(HD 45) LS-C

Neil Duram(HD 2) LS-C

Theresa Manzella(HD 85) LS-A

Alan Doane(HD 36) LS-A

82%Geraldine Custer

(HD 39) LS-F

81%Kerry White(HD 64) LS-B

Matt Regier(HD 4) LS-A

Mark Noland(HD 10) LS-A

80%Forrest Mandeville

(HD 57) LS-B

Carl Glimm(HD 6) LS-A

80%

79%Brad Tschida(HD 97) LS-A

78%

77%Tom Burnett(HD 67) LS-A

76%

75%

74%

73%

72%

71%Greg DeVries(HD 75) LS-A

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Fraction of the Time House Members cast Second Reading Votes with the House Republican Majority

Based on voting records compiled by the Montana Free Press.

A Stunning Admission

• Legistats acknowledges on its web site that its loyalty index “does not reflect a legislator’s voting record based on specific issues in relationship to party platforms or their own social, constitutional or fiscal ideology.”

• It is nonsense to say, as some unscrupulous politicians do, that Legistats tracks every vote and reconciles it with constitutional conservative principles.

• A careful analysis of voting records reveals that all Republican legislators, regardless of Legistats score, are pro-life, pro-gun, pro-constitution, and fiscally conservative.

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Grading Legistats• Does Legistats count the partisan votes it claims to count?

• Does Legistats provide a valid assessment of party loyalty?

• Does Legistats reveal a legislator’s political ideology, philosophy, or stand on issues?

• Does Legistats provide an objective statistical evaluation of voting records?

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No. It misses 40% of these votes. Worse yet, this exclusion indicates blatant bias in its grading system.

No. A different—and arguably better—measure of party loyalty contradicts Legistats’ results.

No. Even Legistats admits that it cannot do this and yet brands some legislators as RINOs, while its proponents slander these legislators as socialists or even communists.

No (see above). In making this assertion, Legistats is claiming scientific credibility that it plainly lacks.

So who’s behind Legistats?

• Legistats’ operator, Ed Butcher, resides on the far-right fringe of the Republican Party and was censored more than once by GOP legislative leadership for his vulgar conduct.

• Legistats’ loudest proponents share Butcher’s alt-right views and believe that advancing their principles requires purging the Republican Party of those not aligned with their ideology.

• Legistats is a tool being used in their quest to purge the Party by any means necessary.

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Finding Enemies

• All extremists must have enemies.

• Legistats conjures up enemies.

• By design, Legistats will ALWAYS award Fs to some legislators, unless every legislator votes alike.

If 50% of legislators have identical voting records and the other 50% have the same record except for one vote, then 50% will receive an A from Legistats while the other 50% will receive an F and thus be classified as RINOs.

• But do RINOs actually exist in the Montana GOP?

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Chart based on public information tabulated by the non-partisan Montana Free Press.

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Chart based on public information tabulated by the non-partisan Montana Free Press.

Take Aways1. There is no evidence of the

existence of RINOs.

2. The tight clustering of Dems is consistent with behavior of a minority party and/or one that has been ideologically purged.

3. The broader spread of Reps is what you would expect for a coalition of conservatives, some libertarians, and even a few on the far right.

4. Yet some misguided members of the Republican Party would burn down Reagan’s “Big Tent.”

2/17/2020 17

President Reagan would have been appalled by the ongoing attempt to purge the Montana Republican Party.

He warned against the GOP becoming “a narrow sectarian party in which all must swear allegiance to prescribed commandments. Such a party can be highly disciplined, but it does not win elections. This kind of party soon disappears in a blaze of glorious defeat, and it never puts into practice its basic tenets, no matter how noble they may be.”

If we wish to elect a Republican Governor, to retain our House and Senate seats, AND ADVANCE THE CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES NEEDED TO BEST SERVE THE PEOPLE OF MONTANA, it would be wise to heed President Reagan’s advice.

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In closing . . .