Shimao Property Holdings Limited

Shimao Property Holdings Limited

2018 Annual Results

(Stock Code: 813) www.shimaoproperty.com

26 March 2019

01 / Results Highlights

02 / Financial Highlights

03 / Business Review

04 / Future Outlook

05 / Conclusions

06 / Appendix

Content

01 / Results Highlights

4

New Record High in Contracted Sales

Robust Business Performance1

2

3

Industry-leading Profitability

High Quality and Rapid Business Development

Continued In-depth Strategic Development

Ample Land Reserves

Corporatization Enhanced Efficiency

Remarkable Business Growth Achieved

R1

y-o-y Growth of

74.8%

Contracted

Sales

RMB 100.77

billion

Contracted

Sales

RMB 176.15

billion

2017 2018

y-o-y Growth of

76.3%

Contracted

GFA

6,062,186

sq. m

Contracted

GFA

10,686,950

sq. m

2017 2018

5

Outstanding Growth with Record-high Contracted Sales,

Steady Rise in Ranking, Industry-leading Growth

16th 11th

Achieving 125.8% of

full-year sales target of

RMB140 billion

2017 2018

Industry contracted sales ranking rose

from 16th in 2017 to 11th in 2018,

improving by 5 places.

6

R2

RMB26.95

billion

GPM

31.5%

Steady Increase in Revenue, Gross Profit and GPM

for Consecutive Years

y-o-y Growth of

18.8%

y-o-y Growth of

21.4%

RMB 85.51

billion

RMB 70.43

billion

Revenue

2018

2017

Revenue

2016

Revenue

RMB 59.29

billion

Gross profit margin increased

by 110 b.p. and gross profit markedly

increased by 25.8% y-o-y in 2018

RMB21.43

billion

GPM

30.4%

GPM

27.6%

RMB16.35

billion

280BP

110BP

31.1%

25.8%

201820172016

7

R3

Core Net Profit Operating Profit

Profit Attributable to Shareholders

Earnings per share

RMB

23.21

billion

y-o-y

Growth of

31.3%

RMB

8.83

billion

y-o-y

Growth of

12.7%

RMB

2.647

y-o-y

Growth of

13.9%

Substantial Growth in Core Profit Attributable to

Shareholders with Outstanding Profit Margins

RMB

11.73

billion

y-o-y

Growth of

25.3%

Core Profit Attributable to Shareholders

RMB

8.55

billion

y-o-y

Growth of

23.4%

Core Net Profit Margin (Attributable to

Shareholders)

14.6%Up by

0.6 p.p.

8

RSteady Increase in Dividend4

2018

HK 120 cents

per share76

100

120

2016 2017 20180

40

60

80

100

20

140

120

31.6%

20.0%

Dividend per share

(HK cents)

9

R5

Deepened Penetration in Key State Strategic Areas

Promoting Multiple Aspects of Shimao’s Brands

Focus on establishing presence in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area –

Shenzhen Qianhai, Longgang and Pingshan – building “three towers in one city” as new city

landmarks.

Continue to develop in Hangzhou Bay Area, growing together with the city cluster, helping build

city diversity.

InterContinental Shanghai Wonderland is widely viewed as one of the world’s architectural

wonders, creating a new hotspot in Shanghai; Shanghai Shimao Festival City underwent detailed

transformation and upgrading, shining on the “First Commercial Street in China”

Total land bank was around 55.38

million sq. m. with average land cost of

RMB5,386/sq. m.

2018 attributable new land acquisitions

amounted to RMB51.9 billion, including

strategic land parcels in Pingshan,

Shenzhen

10

RSteady Growth in Revenue of Shanghai Shimao6

Note:

1. All the data above are excerpted from Shanghai Shimao’s results

announcement prepared accordingly to PRC GAAP.

2. The Group holds 58.92% equity interest in Shanghai Shimao.

In 2018, contracted sales of

Shanghai Shimao grew by 25.5%

y-o-y to RMB27.10 billion

In 2018, revenue of Shanghai

Shimao rose by 10.7%

y-o-y to RMB20.67 billion

In 2018, profit attributable to

Shanghai Shimao’s shareholders

increased by 8.0% y-o-y to

RMB2.40 billion

25.5%

10.7%

8.0%

02 / Financial Highlights

12

Increase in Cash Collection with

Ample Capital on Hand1

3

4

Improving Credit Ratings and Stable Gearing Ratios

Responding to the Changing Environment Via

Innovative Financing

2Maintaining Solid Capital Structure through

Prudent Financial Policy

Prudent and Refined Financial Management Outstanding

Financial Metrics

13

RIncrease in Cash Collection, Ample Capital on Hand1

In 2017 and 2018, cash collection

continuously reached historical highs.

Cash collection ratio in 2018 was 78%.60.0

Capital Reserve as at 31 December 2018

Sufficient capital lays a solid foundation

for the Group’s sustainable and stable

business development in the future.

Unutilized credit facility

of banks, financial

institutions etc. around

RMB40.00 billion

Cash on Hand

RMB49.58 billion

up by 50.2% compared

to end-2017

RMB’ billion

2016 2017 2018

80.7

137.4

34.5%

70.4%

14

RMB77.82 billion long-term

borrowings, accounting for

71% of total borrowings

RMB31.31 billion short-term

borrowings, accounting for

29% of total borrowings

20182017

RMB87.50billion

RMB109.13billion

Balance of Borrowings

up by

24.7%

71%

29%

The structure of

short-and long-term

borrowings has

remained healthy

RSolid Debt Structure & Innovative Financing Channels2

Continued efforts in financial innovation,

establishing industry benchmark

2015 - China’s first property management fees ABS

2016 - Among the first batch of private bond issuers

in the Shanghai Stock Exchange; The largest hotel

ABS in China

2017 - China’s first commercial property public ABN

2018 - China’s first Housing Lease Shelf Rental ABS

15

R3

Successfully Issued Offshore Bonds with

Favorable Interest Rates

A total of $2.32 billion of senior notes

were issued from 2018 to Feb 2019

with favorable interest rates

A total of RMB2.15 billion of “dim sum bonds”

were issued in 2018, with heated market

response

US$ million RMB million

0%

4%

6%

8%

2%

10%

0

400

600

800

1,000

200

1,200

Seven-year

tenor

Jan 2018

0%

4%

6%

8%

2%

10%

0

400

600

800

1,000

200

1,200

Five-year

tenor

Feb 2019

Three-year

tenor

Oct/Dec 2018

Three-year

tenor

Mar 2018

Three-year

tenor

Jun 2018

500

8201,000

Amount (RMB million)Amount (US$ million) Composite interest rate Composite interest rate

5.200%

6.896%6.125%

5.750% 5.750%

9501,200

A 4-year US$570 million + HK$3.55 billion

offshore syndicated loan facility was signed, with

the interest rate at Libor / Hibor + 2.5%

Blended financing cost was controlled

to 5.8% in 2018.

Ba2 Positive

Ba2 Stable

16

R4 Stable Net Gearing Ratio

Net gearing ratio was 59.4%, up by 0.5

p.p. y-o-y, but down by 3.3 p.p. when

compared to mid-2018 (62.7%), due to

the substantial increase in contracted

sales and cash collection in 2H18.

The net gearing ratio has been controlled

to below 60% for 7 consecutive years,

laying a solid foundation for the Group to

cope with complicated economic and

changing financial environment and to

achieve sustainable development.

Note 1: Net gearing ratio = Net debt (Total borrowings – Total cash and cash equivalents (including restricted cash)) /

Total equity (excluding perpetual capital instruments).

Note 2: If total equity includes revaluation increment of hotels, adjusted net gearing ratio should be 50.8%, 0.3 p.p.

higher than end-2017.

53.4%

62.7%

End-20160%

40%

45%

50%

55%

65%

80%

75%

60%

70%

35%

30%

~~End-2018End-2017 Mid-2018

58.9% 59.4%

330BP

RMB’ billionRMB’ billion

17

RIncreased Scale of Assets5

* Fixed assets = property and equipment + land use rights + investment properties. Through professional valuation, the market

value of major investment properties and hotels reached RMB75.9 billion (end-2017: RMB68.9 billion)

Fixed Assets*

377.60

Total Assets Total Equity

RMB’ billion

201820172016

307.56

261.9022.8%

201820172016

6.7%

59.43

55.7353.98

201820172016

8.8%

105.28

96.75

88.22

03 / Business Review

19

Revenue Breakdown

* Excluding attributable revenue from joint ventures

& associated companies

0

60

70

90

2018 2017

Property Management

Rental income

Income from

hotel operation

80

50

Property sales

0.28

0.65

0.99

1.71

66.80

RMB’ billion

Recognized Sales by City* – RMB80.90 billion

70.43

85.51

R1 Revenue Breakdown

Others

~~

0.71

0.90

1.09

1.91

80.90

Pingtan 2.5%

Zhangjiagang 3.0%

Hangzhou 5.8%

Suzhou 2.4%

Quanzhou 16.6%

Fuzhou 10.0%

Other 20 cities 14.4%

Shanghai 2.4%

Ningbo 3.4%

Shenzhen 3.5%

Wuhan 6.1%

Hefei 2.0%

Nanjing 5.7%

Jinan 5.4%Qingdao 5.4%

Yinchuan 5.0%

Xiamen 3.4%

Chengdu 3.0%

20

RMB’ billion 2018 2017 Change(%)

Income from hotel operation 1.91 1.71 +11.7%

Rental income 1.09 0.99 +10.0%

Property Management 0.90 0.65 +38.5%

Others 0.71 0.28 +150.7%

Total 4.61 3.63 +26.9%

For the year ended 31 DecemberTurnover from Hotel Operation, Rentals,

Property Management and Others

4.61

0

3.00

4.00

5.00

2018 2017

Others

3.63

24%

15%

47%

18%

8%

Rental

income

Income from

hotel operation

41%

2.00

RMB’ billion

1.00

R2 Breakdown of Recurrent Income

Income from hotel operation, rentals, property management and others rose by 26.9% y-o-y.

Other income is mainly derived from project management, theme parks etc., which increased significantly

by 150.7% y-o-y.

Property

management

20%

27%

* The income does not include revenue of related parties or that from the group

21

R3

Turnover

EBITDA

1,708

0

2,500

1,000

2,000

2017 2018

1,908

1,500

RMB’ million

500

11.7%

560

0

1,000

2017 2018

590

500

RMB’ million

5.4%

Sound Hotel Operation and Unique Projects

Officially opened on

15 Nov, InterContinental

Shanghai Wonderland is

dubbed an “Architectural

Wonder of the World”.

EBITDA amounted to RMB590 million

EBITDA margin was industry-leading at 30.8%

01

02

03

InterContinental Shanghai Wonderland together

with other hotels recorded aggregate revenue of

RMB1,908 million

22

R4 Major Commercial Launches and landmark projects in pipeline

Revenue

EBITDA

Recorded commercial properties operation

income of RMB1,091 million thanks to the grand

relaunch of Shanghai Shimao Festival City, the

grand opening of Shanghai Shimao Tower, plus

other properties.

EBITDA was RMB610 million.

Outstanding EBITDA margin at 56%

01

02

03

992

0

1,000

2017 2018

1,091

RMB’ million

10.0%

530

0

1,000

400

800

2017 2018

610

600

RMB’ million

200

15.1%

500

•Mudanjiang

•Shenyang

•Dalian•Beijing

•Tianjin

•Qingdao

•Yantai•Jinan

•Xuzhou

•Ningbo

•Nanjing

•Hangzhou

•Fuzhou

•Quanzhou

•Xiamen

•Guangzhou

•Nanchang

•Wuhan

•Changsha

•Chengdu

•Xi’an

Shanghai

•Chongqing

•Yinchuan

•Hefei

•Wuhu

•Shenzhen

•Nanning

•Hong Kong

•Wenchang

23Remarks: Only the key projects are listed above.

Land reserve in 87 cities, 264 projects, covers a gross GFA of 55.38 million sq. m (as at 31 December 2018). The Group has sufficient

reserves of saleable resources in hot regions nationwide valued over RMB900 billion to meet the continually growing demand in the future.

Group HQ

RNationwide Quality Land Reserve

•Harbin

5

Northern China District

Beijing Shangzhuang

Beijing Fengtai District Xiaowayao

Beijing Xitieying Project

Tianjin Jinnan Project

Gu’an Luxury Mansion Project

Tianjin Wuqing Luxury Mansion

Western District

Chengdu Longquanyi

Yinchuan Luxury Mansion

Chongqing Runyijiang Project

Chongqing Luxury Mansion

Yinchuan Gongxiang Garden

Central China District

Wuhan Shimao Carnival

Nanchang Chaoyangzhou

Heei Gaoxin Project

Changsha Zhengyuan

Hefei Jade Mansion

Southern China District

Shenzhen Qianhai Shimao Financial Centre

Shenzhen Longgang Project

Shenzhen Pingshan Center

Guangzhou Finance City

Guangzhou Zengcheng

5

Shandong District

Qingdao Shimao Noble Town

Jinan Baimashan

Jinan Shimao Skyscraper City

Jinan Xiaoya Parcel

Jinan Jiyang Chengbo Lake

Zhejiang District

Jiaxing Science & Tech City

Shaoxing Qingdian Lake Project

Hangzhou Pengbu Project

Hangzhou Born with Legend

Ningbo Sunjia

HKSAR

Kowloon Tai Wo Ping

Tung Chung Hotel Project

New Kowloon Island Lot No.6549 Parcel

Jiangsu and Shanghai District

Shanghai Luodian Project

Shanghai Songjiang Project

Suzhou Bronze Swallow Terrace

Nanjing Shimao Bund New City

Zhangjiagang Jiyang Lake Palace

Fujian District

Shishi Shimao Skyscraper City

Pingtan Straits Future City

Quanzhou Jinjiang Project

Xiamen Jimei

Fuzhou City 108 Building Project

Fuzhou Lianpan

Fuzhou Jinrong Street Project

Quanzhou Luojiang

Quanzhou Luoyang Bridge Parcel

Fuzhou Licuoshan Project

Quanzhou Quangang Project

Fuzhou Changle Jinfeng No.3&4 Parcels

Fuqing 01, 03 Parcels

Fuzhou Yongtai Project

•Zhengzhou

•Panyang

Xi’an Fengcheng Road Project

Nanjing Jiangpu G24 Project

Wenzhou Ouhai Centre

Fuqing 19, 20, 21 Parcels

24

R6 Land Acquisitions in 2018

Total no. of projects: 96

Total land cost: RMB82,336 million

Total GFA: 16.15 million sq. m

AV: RMB5,099/sq. m

GFA – by City Tier Total Land Cost – by City Tier

2%

33%

38%

27%

7%

43%

33%

17%

1st tier 2nd tier Strong 3rd and 4th tier Weak 3rd and 4th tier

The Group acquired 96 land parcels in 2018 with a total land cost of RMB82.3 billion

and a GFA of 16.15 million sq. m. 1st and 2nd tier cities accounted for 50% of new land

acquisitions in terms of value, and the ratio is over 80% if strong 3rd and 4th tier cities

are included.

Remarks: Details of land acquisitions in 2018 are listed in appendix.

Saleable Value

(RMB’ billion)

25

Guangdong-

Hong Kong-

Macao

Fujian

Yangtze

River Delta

Yangtze River Delta 225 Shanghai, Hangzhou,

Region Nanjing, Suzhou, Ningbo

Fujian 210 Fuzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou

Guangdong-Hong Kong 200 Hong Kong, Shenzhen,

Macao Greater Bay Area Guangzhou, Foshan

Northern China Region 163 Beijing, Tianjin, NE China

Others 102 Chengdu, Xi’an, Wuhan,

Hefei etc

Total 900

Northern China District 9,568,942 7,889,876

Zhejiang District 3,883,153 2,713,683

Shandong District 1,808,929 1,149,816

Jiangsu and Shanghai District 5,903,228 3,741,159

Central China District 4,296,445 2,912,078

Western District 4,516,202 3,379,418

Fujian District 14,968,986 9,143,626

Southern China District 2,780,646 1,848,169

Sub-total 47,726,529 32,777,824

(Districts directly under

Shimao Property)

Shanghai Shimao (823) 4,076,950 3,515,294

Joint Venture 3,576,393 962,577

Total 55,379,871 37,255,696

m2 As at 31 December 2018

District Total GFA Attributable GFA

At as 31 December 2018 (million m2)

Properties under construction 29.02

Future developments 26.36

Total GFA 55.38

Average attributable land cost (RMB/m2) 5,386

Saleable Value of Reserve in Popular Regions

Popular Region Key Cities

Northern

China

R7 Nationwide Quality Land Reserve

26

Analysis of Operations – Cost Analysis

In 2018, the Group’s SG&A / contracted sales ratio was 2.98%, down by 1.28 p.p. year-on-year. Both the

ratios of development properties and self-held properties decreased;

In 2018 , the SG&A / contracted sales ratio of development properties was 2.19%, down by 0.89 p.p. year-

on-year, leading in the industry in terms of cost-effectiveness

The Group – SG&AOf which: Development

Properties – SG&A

20172018 20172018

5,427

4,4523,860

3,100-1.28p.p.

4.26%

2.98%

-0.89p.p.

3.08%

2.19%

Expense

Contracted

Sales

RMB’ million

8

04 / Future Outlook

--- Operations

28

The Group’s 2019 Operations Targets

Review of 2018

Boost Cash Collection

Prudent Operations

Outlook for 2019

Balance Income and

Expense

Positive Cash Flow

2019 Operating Cash Flow Plan (RMB’ million)

157,500

Cash

collection

73,500

40,850

43,150

0

Payment of

land premium

Payment of

construction

cost

Other expenses Net operating

cash flow

1

210,000

Contracted

sales

2018 Operating Cash Flow (RMB’ million)

2018 Planned 2018

Contracted sales 176,146 140,000

Cash collection 137,400 112,000

Payment of land premium 63,953 75,000

Payment of construction cost 35,402 32,000

Other expenses 39,800 29,500(including tax, interestand expenses)

Net operating cash flow -1,755 -24,500

29

29

Saleable Area (m2)

Key Projects Available for Sale in 2019 worth over RMB2.0 billion

Districts (directly under Shimao Property)

Xiamen Haicang Project 112,151

Pingtan Straits Future City 169,632

Fuzhou Xindian Quantou Project 97,228

Fuzhou Helin Project 123,765

Beijing Tongzhou North 33,350

Haidian Shangzhuang 35,979

Shanghai Songjiang Xincheng Project 56,089

Nanjing Hexi G11 Project 81,069

Zhangjiagang Jiyang Lake Palace 154,903

Taizhou City East 126,906

Hangzhou Pengbu 81,371

Hangzhou Puyan 49,137

Hefei Gaoxin Project 98,837

Zhengzhou Changxi Lake Project 106,137

Qingdao Gaoxin Huoju Road Project 75,308

Qingdao Noble Town 89,900

Xian Beichen 217,202

Chongqing Runyijiang Project 243,459

Shenzhen Longgang Project 131,050

Changsha Zhengyuan 207,035

Nanjing Shimao Bund New City 126,395

Suzhou Riviera 67,970

Sub-total (Key projects above) 2,934,874

Projects (below RMB2 million) available for sale in 2019 11,264,736

Completed inventory 1,351,154

Projects available for sale as at 31 December 2018 3,896,259

Total 19,447,023

Northern China District

Jiangsu and ShanghaiDistrict

Fujian District

Central China District

Zhejiang District

Western District

Shandong District

Shanghai Shimao (823)

Saleable GFA in 2019 will total approximately 19.45

million sq. m (excluding contributions from new land

acquisitions in 2019). Assuming a conservative ASP of

RMB18,000 / sq. m, the total value of the saleable

resources would be RMB350.0 billion. Based on a

conservative sell-through assumption of 60%, the

Group estimates its contracted sales to reach RMB210

billion in 2019.

Historical Saleable GFA & Sell-through Rates

0

4

12

8

2

6

16

10

0%

60%

20%

40%

10%

50%

30%

Saleable GFA Contracted GFA Sell through rate

2016 2017 2018

70%

2019

9.30

4.92

9.52

6.06

16.45

10.69

million sq. m.

14

19.45

11.67

20

18

2019 Saleable Resources

80%

2

04 / Future Outlook

--- Sales

31

Review of 2018 Sales Performance

Contract sales in 2018 reached RMB176.1 billion in 2018, with completion rate at 126%, exceeding

our target by RMB36.1 billion.

Contracted sales in 2018 registered a year-on-year increase of 75%, which was a record high

growth rate, and staying on a steady growth track.

Contracted sales target VS achieved Contracted sales growth trend

in past 3 years

68.12

100.77

176.15

2016 2017 2018

RMB billion RMB billion

0

40

60

80

100

140

20

200

180

120

160

+48%

+75%

140.0

176.1

Contracted

Sales Target

Contracted

Sales Achieved

0

40

60

80

100

140

20

200

180

120

160

3

Completion

rate 126%

32

Review of 2018 Sales Performance

The Group boosted destocking efforts in the beginning of 2018 with continued increase in new

supply throughout the year. Amidst the downward trend in the real estate market in 2H18, the

overall sell-through rate reached 65%, flattish from 2017.

As at the end of 2018, inventory aged over one year decreased by 24%. The inventory structure

continued to improve, laying a good foundation for the sales performance in 2019.

Structure of Contracted Sales in 2018

RMB billion

Overall Sell-through Rate: 65%,

flattish y-o-y

Contracted Sales of

New Supply

Contracted Sales

of Inventory

4Q

55.3

1Q

32.9

2Q

39.4

3Q

48.5

2.5

5.0

8.0

13.5

52.8

43.5

31.4

19.4

Structure of Inventory

RMB billion

Saleable value at

beginning of 2018

Saleable value at

end of 2018

43.2

84.1

Aged over one yearAged within one year

59.3

20.3

22.9 24.8

47%

53%

71%

29%

Inventory

+41.0

Inventory aged over one year decreased

by 24%

4

33

Review of 2018 Cash Collection

In 2018, cash collection reached RMB137.4 billion, with completion rate at 123%, exceeding our

target by RMB25.4 billion.

Amidst banks’ tighter mortgage policies and restrictions on contract filings in more cities, the

Group’s cash collection still registered a year-on-year growth of 70%.

Cash collection target VS achieved Growth trend of cash collection in past 3 years

60.0

80.7

137.4

2016 2017 2018

RMB billion RMB billion

0

40

60

80

100

140

20

200

180

120

160

+35%

+70%

112.0

137.4

Cash Collection

Target

Cash Collection

Achieved

0

40

60

80

100

140

20

200

180

120

160

Completion

rate 123%

5

A/c for 70%

Contracted sales

RMB123.3 billion

34

Review of 2018 Layout in Key Cities and Supply

Contracted Sales in 2018 (by cities)

Top 10 Cities in terms of Market Share in 2018

Other cities

Key cities

A/c for 30%

Contracted sales

RMB52.9 billion

Contracted sales Market share in the city(RMB’ billion) (Sales ranking)

Fuzhou 16.3 TOP 1

Quanzhou 7.1 TOP 1

Jinjiang 5.2 TOP 1

Zhangjiagang 3.8 TOP 1

Yinchuan 2.5 TOP 1

Pingtan 2.1 TOP 1

Nan’an 1.9 TOP 1

Nantong 3.4 TOP 3

Xiamen 3.2 TOP 3

Suzhou 4.8 TOP 5

Ningbo 6.7 TOP 7

Jinan 6.5 TOP 7

City

Deyang

Neijiang

Luzhou

Wenchang

Jingzhou

Ji’an

Foshan

Yancheng

Jingmen

Nanping

Shaxian

Sanming

Longyan

Zhangzhou

Huizhou

Kunshan

Mudanjiang

Langfang

Yantai

Weihai

Zhangqiu

Zibo

Xuzhou

Linyi

Taizhou

Nantong

Jiangyin

Zhangjiagang

Changshu

Changzhou

Suzhou

Wuxi

Jiaxing

Huzhou

Shaoxing

Fenghua

Taizhou

Yueqing

Wenzhou

Fuqing

Pingtan

Putian

Hui’an

Nan’an

Quanzhou

Shishi

Jinjiang

Harbin

Changchun

Shenyang

DalianBeijing

ShijiazhuangTianjin

Jinan Qingdao

Hefei

Nanjing

Shanghai

Hangzhou NingboWuhan

NanchangChangsha

Fuzhou

Xiamen

Shenzhen

Guangzhou

Zhengzhou

Yinchuan

Xi’an

Lanzhou

ChengduChongqing

Nanning Hong Kong

6

Shimao’s landbank covered 87 cities, that has increased by 85% when compared with 2017. Key

provincial capital city penetration rate reached 73%, contributing contracted sales over RMB120

billion. The Group continued to focus on cities with high sales-generating capacity. 12 cities were

ranked TOP 10 in terms of market share in 2018.

Plans for 2019 Supply and Target of Operations

With around RMB350 billion of saleable resources in 2019, the Group will be able to reach 2019

contracted sales target with just a sell-through rate of 60%. By actively increasing the sell-through

rate/ASP/contributions from new land acquisitions, the Group is confident of beating the contracted

sales target of RMB210 billion.

+

RMB350.0 billion Saleable

Resources for the Year

New supply in 2019

RMB265.9 billion

Inventory in

beginning of

the year

RMB84.1

billion

Annual Target

RMB210 billion

Sell-through

Rate

60%

New saleable

resources

Contributions to sales

+RMB…

billion

ASP higher-than-assumed

of RMB18,000/ sq. m

Sales with premium

+RMB…

billion

Sell-through Rate

higher than assumption

+RMB…

billion

35

7

36

GZ & SZ RMB30.0 bn+

Fuzhou RMB25.0 bn+

Beijing RMB24.0 bn+

Xiamen RMB20.0 bn+

Hangzhou RMB18.0 bn+

Quanzhou RMB18.0 bn+

Nanjing RMB15.0 bn+

Shanghai RMB10.0 bn+

Suzhou RMB10.0 bn+

Breakdown of Saleable Resources by

City Tier in 2018 & 2019

Core Cities

Annual Saleables RMB170 bn+

Of the overall saleable resources in 2019, contributions from 1st and 2nd tier cities as well as strong

3rd and 4th tier cities with healthier sell-through rates increase by 8p.p. year-on-year. 50% of the

saleable resources are concentrated in 10 core cities. Moreover, the Group got major launches in

Guangzhou and Shenzhen (GZ & SZ) within the Greater Bay Area. The Group’s strategy is expected

to ensure sales target will be met, and drive more premium product pricing.

2019 Sales Strategy

– Development in Key Cities8

2018 20190

100

150

200

250

350

50

500

450

300

400

17%

43%

8%

32%

18%

48%

10%

24%

Total Saleable

Resources

RMB271 bn

Total Saleable

Resources

RMB350 bn

68%

76%

+8%

1st tier

2nd tier

Strong 3rd

and 4th tier

Weak 3rd

and 4th tier

Diversified promotions

Enhance integration

Strengthen brand image

“More Home” / Ancient

style

Create unique features

Cultural integration

Business innovation

Value-added services

Create new profit streams

Quantitative assessment

Refine targets

Clearly defined reward and

penalty system

Strategic control

Difficulties analysis with

action focused

Lower costs

Enhance efficiency

Increase profitability and

optimize cost structure37

2019 Sales Strategy – Management Upgrade

Enhance front-end risk control and target-oriented delicacy management, as well as empower

brand via diversification and innovation to grow business scale and profits. Completion rate of

contracted sales target is expected to reach around 20% by 1Q19, and 50% by 1H19.

Assess potential risks

to tailor reasonable

control measure

Delicacy management

to ensure business

performance and guarantee

Results

Innovate on diverse

fronts to empower

brand

Landbanking

Asses market potential

Precise acquisitions

Product positioning

Look into upgrading

Learn from experience to

remove flaws

Overall strategy

Analyze trends and changes

Target-oriented planning

9

05 / Conclusions

39

R1 2018 Market Review and 2019 Forecast

2016-2019 Overall Transactions in Market

(in RMB trillion)

Increase (Decrease) in Monthly Transactions

in 2018 Vs 2017

15%

Jan-Feb Jun Nov2016

Historical High

2017 2018 2019

12.1

14.9913.4 13+

6% 6%

21%

17%

22%

15%

7%6%

1%

18%

Jul Dec

Total transaction value of primary residential properties

reached historical high of RMB14.99 trillion in 2018.

Market experienced rapid growth in 1H18 and slowed

down notably in 2H18, with transaction volumes

gradually declining.

The market is expected to drop by about 10% in 2019,

but transaction value will still be more than RMB13

trillion. Prices and volumes in some third- and fourth-tier

cities may be under pressure, but prices in first- and

second-tier cities will be stable with increasing volume.

Industry consolidation will accelerate, and policy will

gradually relax. Loosening signals such as drop in

down-payment ratios for first-time homebuyers in

some cities, drop in mortgage interest rates for first-

time homebuyers, relaxed hukou policies for

university graduates etc. are expected to be

gradually rolled out in 1H19. Market in 2H19 will be

better than that in 1H19.

40

R2 Highlights of 2018 Results – Core Metrics

Contracted

Sales

Average growth at 30% among

Top 20 developers in 2018

TOP 20: 30% RMB176.1 billion

Shimao: 75%

Cash

Collection

Cash collection in 2017: RMB80.7 billion

2017: RMB80.7 billion RMB137.4 billion

70.4%

Gross Profit

2017 2018

Rank: 16 Rank: 11

Attributable sales:

TOP 11

Cash

Collection Ratio:

78%

Gross profit of 2017: RMB21.43 billion

GPM 30.4%RMB26.95

billion

Growth in gross

profit:

25.8%31.5%

41

R3 Highlights of 2018 Results – Financial Metrics

Core Net

Profit

RMB11.73 billion

Core Profit

Attributable to

Shareholder2017: RMB6.93 billion

RMB8.55billion

Increase: 23.4%

Net Gearing

Ratio

Maintained at below 60% for

7 consecutive years

End- 2017: 58.9%59.4%

End-Jun 2018: 62.7%Net gearing ratio dropped

by 3.3p.p. due to

significant increase in

contracted sales & cash

collection in 2H18

0.5%

Dividend

Reflected the philosophy of sharing its

operating success with shareholders

2017: HK$1.00 per shareHK$1.20

20%

Payout ratio has stayed

at 30%-40% in the past three years

2017: RMB9.37 billionIncrease: 25.3%

R4 Highlights of 2018 Results – Investment Properties

42

Lianhuashan Ski

ResortInterContinental

Shanghai Wonderland“Hello Kitty – the Bund

Tour”

R4 Highlights of 2018 Results – Investment Properties

43

Shanghai Shimao

Festival City

Shimao Shanghai

Tower

44

R5 Recurrent Income Targets in 2019

Attain annual growth over 40% in coming 3 years.

Target to spin-off hotels and property management within 3 years

Hotels:

Commercial &

Entertainment: RMB1.8 billion

RMB2.4 billion

Property

Management: RMB2.0 billion

2019 2020 2021

6.2 billion

9.0 billion

13.0 billion

45

R6 Contracted Sales Target for 2019

With sufficient saleable resources, contracted sales

of RMB210 billion is a conservative target under a

slow market. Saleable resources in 2019 will be over

RMB400 billion if accounting for new land

acquisitions in 1Q19;

Sell-through rate assumption is conservative at 60%,

vs 2018 actual at 65%. Hence, there is upside to the

contracted sales target with a higher-than-assumed

sell-through rate.

More rational city distribution: Over 75% of saleable

resources in terms of value will be concentrated in

1st & 2nd tier cities and strong 3rd & 4th tier cities.

If a higher-than-assumed ASP is achieved, saleable

resources and profitability will be increased.

RMB100 billion of new saleable resources were

newly added in 1Q19, and RMB20 billion of

contracted sales are expected to be generated from

these newly added resources.

Contracted sales target for 2019:

RMB210 billion+

Confident in achieving above-

average growth of TOP 20 in

the industry every year

46

R7 2019 Landbanking Strategy

Precise

Investment

Multiple Channels

Step up investment via other means including

M&As and minority equity, in addition to

traditional ways of bidding for tenders and

auctions.

More Investments

in 1H

60% land investment

will be made in 1H. 1Q19

acquisitions to account for around

30% of full-year. Total landbank

saleable resources are expected

to increase to RMB1,000 billion.

Focus on Key CitiesContinue to acquire quality land in 1st

and 2nd tier cities, and strong 3rd and 4th tier

cities. 85% of newly acquired land in 1Q19 is in

1st and 2nd tier cities.

Continuous InvestmentUtilize 40% of sales and 50%

of cash collected on land

investment, subject to market

conditions and cash collection

situation, aiming to maintain a

balanced and sustainable

operating cash inflow.

47

R8 Vision

Residential Commercial Theme Parks Hotels Prop Mgmt

Innovative Business User Service Smart Technology Cultural Tourism

06 / Appendix

49

Total Land Attributable Total

New Land Parcels Usage Cost Land Cost GFA

(RMB’ million) (RMB’ million) (m2)

Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition

1. Block 3, Unit 19 of Shenzhen Qianhai Jan 2018 Commercial 2,250 2,250 100% 73,500 30,612Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone Office

2. Tianjin Wuqing No. 2016-70 Parcel Jan 2018 Residential, Commercial 3,199 3,199 100% 266,485 12,004Service and Education

3. Zhengzhou Guancheng District Jan 2018 Commercial and 1,692 863 51% 451,113 3,750Jinluowan Project Residential

4. Shenzhen Pingshan Centre Jan 2018 Commercial and Service 1,873 1,124 60% 182,000 10,291

5. Fuzhou 2017-49 (Sanjiangkou) Jan 2018 Residential 1,646 560 34% 187,910 8,760

6. Longyan Shanghang Honor Project Jan 2018 Residential 245 125 51% 60,750 4,031

7. Fuzhou Jin’an 2017-57 and 58 Jan 2018 Residential 1,405 1,405 100% 151,397 9,280

8. Taizhou Jiaojiang District Jan 2018 Residential and 1,004 341 34% 222,292 4,517Zhang’an Project Commercial

9. Zhangzhou 2017P08 (Longwen Jan 2018 Residential, Commercial 3,600 1,836 51% 333,826 10,784District Minnan Watertown 05 Parcel) Service and Retirement

10. Zhangzhou 2017P11 (Longwen Jan 2018 Residential and 148 148 100% 72,957 2,029District An’deguang Parcel) Commercial Service

11. Beijing Fengtai District Jan 2018 Residential 3,125 1,531 49% 76,160 41,032Xiaowayao Parcel

12. Ningbo Zhenhai District Luotuo Project Feb 2018 Residential and Commercial 707 354 50% 81,200 8,706

13. Zhangzhou Danxia Parcel Feb 2018 Integrated Commercial 524 157 30% 95,347 5,500and Residential

14. Shijiazhuang Luquan Parcel Feb 2018 Residential 181 145 80% 38,297 4,725

15. Quanzhou Yuexin Phase 2 Mar 2018 Commercial Service 274 167 61% 108,381 2,530

16. Jinan Jivang Chengbo Lake Mar 2018 Residential and Commercial 601 421 70% 419,711 1,432

AV

(RMB/m2 )

R1 Land Acquisitions in 2018

5050




Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition

17. Changchun Lianhua Mountain Mar 2018 Residential 407 256 63% 496,289 81992, 94, 98, 99, 102

18. Guangdong Huidong Qingyun Mar 2018 Residential and Commercial 456 456 100% 152,545 2,993

19. Quanzhou Taishang Mar 2018 Commercial and 1,476 502 34% 482,412 3,060S2017-06 (Baiqi Lake) Residential

20. Longyan S2018 Pai-1 Mar 2018 Residential 136 82 60% 63,085 2,156(Dongshan B08)

21. Putian Compound Mar 2018 Retail Commercial 725 413 57% 152,258 4,762and Residential

22. Quanzhou Jinjiang P2017-22 (Xintang) Apr 2018 Commercial and Residential 857 857 100% 268,632 3,190

23. Fuzhou 2018-01 Parcel Apr 2018 Ordinary Commodity 3,312 662 20% 231,902 14,282Housing, Mall and Restaurant

24. Fuzhou 2018-03 Parcel Apr 2018 Ordinary Commodity Housing 590 590 100% 51,009 11,567

25. Nanping High-speed Railway Apr 2018 Commercial and 102 102 100% 125,629 811New District B6-1 (2018-Pai J03) Residential

26. Nanping 2011-J-07, Parcel B Phase 2 Apr 2018 Other Ordinary 213 64 30% 170,414 1,250(13-1-50-2) (Yongsen) Commodity Housing

27. Xiamen X2017P07 Apr 2018 Residential 903 903 100% 45,880 19,682(Xiang’an Xinwei)

28. Nanping Yanping 2018-J-1 Apr 2018 Other Ordinary 95 40 42% 67,680 1,404Commodity Housing

29. Deyang 60 acres Apr 2018 R21 (Residential, 651 651 100% 132,441 4,918excluding Commercial)

30. Fuzhou Fuging 2018 Pai-15 May 2018 Commercial Service 1,202 1,202 100% 299,976 4,007and Residential

R1 Land Acquisitions in 2018 (cont’d)

AV

(RMB/m2 )

51




Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition

31. Jiaxing Pinghu 2018 Ping- May 2018 Urban Residential 1,322 1,322 100% 146,971 8,996No.29 Project

32. Fuzhou Minqing New City May 2018 Commercial and 423 85 20% 120,934 3,498Residential

33. Quanzhou Julong Town My 2018 Commercial and 968 494 51% 255,737 3,785Residential

34. Wenzhou Pingyang Ao’jiang May 2018 Urban Residential, 804 804 100% 120,016 6,703Binjiang Centre F-01-01 Parcel Wholesale and Retail

35. Wenzhou Pingyang Ao’jiang May 2018 Urban Residential, 793 270 34% 116,716 6,794Binjiang Centre F-02-01 Parcel Wholesale and Retail

36. Jinjiang 2017-38 May 2018 Commercial and 145 36 25% 137,104 1,058(Neikeng) Residential

37. Jinan Zhangqiu Fukang May 2018 Residential 349 349 100% 75,623 4,610

38. Quanzhou 2018-2 May 2018 Commercial and 556 556 100% 110,762 5,020(Licheng) Residential

39. Xiamen 2018HP01 Jun 2018 Residential and 2,910 728 25% 116,000 25,086(Haicang Maluan Bay) Commercial Service

40. Zibo Honglian Lake Jun 2018 Residential 423 190 45% 108,000 3,921

41. Fu’an Wanyu Jinlan Bay Jun 2018 Residential 119 60 50% 132,898 895

42. Sanming Changxing Road D-2 Jun 2018 Other Ordinary 217 217 100% 68,341 3,171Commodity Housing

43. Huzhou Lianshi Central Primary Jun 2018 Urban Residential 415 415 100% 127,692 3,250School South Parcel

44. Yixing Economic Development Zone, Jun 2018 Urban Residential 546 546 100% 87,838 6,216North of Qingyuan Avenue andEast of Xuefu Road


AV

(RMB/m2 )

52




Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition

45. Yinchuan Gongyong Garden Jun 2018 Residential 178 178 100% 42,150 4,220East Parcel

46. Changsha Zhengyuan Jun 2018 Commercial and 1,602 881 55% 259,994 6,162Residential

47. Jiangxi Ji’an Guhou River Project Jun 2018 Type II Residential 405 405 100% 85,943 4,708

48. Shijiazhuang East 2nd Ring Road Jul 2018 Commercial 102 20 20% 54,829 1,865Yuhua Parcel and Residential

49. Longyan Dongxiao Project Jul 2018 Residential 352 123 35% 103,832 3,390

50. Longyan Xiaoyang Wenjing Project Jul 2018 Residential 506 172 34% 78,128 6,477

51. Baoji Taibai Jul 2018 Residential 163 98 60% 126,979 1,284

52. Fuqing Minhou Gaoxin No.2018-02 Jul 2018 Type II Residential and 810 527 65% 106,195 7,628Commercial

53. Zhangzhou Datang Project Jul 2018 Residential 1,396 265 19% 149,347 9,349

54. Jinjiang P2017-23 Jul 2018 Commercial and 339 153 45% 92,319 3,672(Datang Xintang) Residential

55. Longyan Dongxiao Parcel No.10 Jul 2018 Residential 191 97 51% 52,944 3,608

56. Longyan Dongxiao Parcel No.11 Jul 2018 Commercial and 255 255 100% 89,799 2,840Residential

57. Chengdu Jinying Road West Jul 2018 Type II Residential 198 198 100% 66,001 3,000(Parcel B West to Hengda) (39.6 acres) (include Commercial≤10%)

58. Luzhou Yunfeng Road West (91.5 acres) / Jul 2018 R2 Residential 936 936 100% 274,264 3,411Hengsi Route North (91.4 acres)

59. Yueqing Town Centre H-b3-2 Parcel Jul 2018 Residential 707 184 26% 84,034 8,416


AV

(RMB/m2 )

53




Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition

60. Changshu Shenzhen Road South, Jul 2018 Residential 1,085 1,085 100% 113,872 9,528Nansha Road West

61. Changshu Xinzhuang Town Xinxhuang Jul 2018 Residential 191 191 100% 30,752 6,221Avenue East, Xinyang Avenue South

62. Changshu Xinzhuang Town Fanrong Jul 2018 Residential 772 772 100% 138,294 5,584Road East, Zhanggangjing River South

63. Xuzhou Na Village 09G, 10G Jul 2018 Residential 227 227 100% 222,145 1,020

64. Wenzhou Ouhai Center Jul 2018 Residential 901 901 100% 105,078 8,577South Unit E-10

65. Hangzhou Puyan Jul 2018 Residential and 2,111 2,111 100% 96,860 21,797Commercial

66. Neijiang Hongpai Road South Jul 2018 Type II Residential 758 758 100% 173,923 4,356(104.4 acres) (including Commercial ≤15%)

67. Hengyang Daiyingling Project Jul 2018 Residential 617 370 60% 411,297 1,500

68. Lanzhou Galaxy International Project Jul 2018 R1 (Type I Residential) 1,797 899 50% 309,261 5,811(179.71 acres) R2 (Type II Residential)

69. Hangzhou Yuhang 25, 26 Jul 2018 Residential 2,112 2,112 100% 119,363 17,692

70. Fuzhou 2018-17 Parcel (Jin’an Helinpian Jul 2018 Commercial and 2,854 1,904 67% 131,332 21,731District E-05 East Parcel) Residential

71. Jingzhou New Port Jul 2018 Residential 265 159 60% 249,619 1,062

72. Qingdao Gaoxin District G-2018-023 Jul 2018 Urban Residential 761 761 100% 131,123 5,800Parcel and Retail Commercial

73. Quanzhou 2018 Pai-04, 06 Parcel Jul 2018 Commercial and 294 59 20% 127,717 2,302Residential


AV

(RMB/m2 )

54




Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition

74. Longyan Lianjing Culu Island Project Jul 2018 Commercial and 300 270 90% 183,204 1,638Phase 1 Residential

75. Tianjin Eco-City Parcel 26 Aug 2018 Residential 835 835 100% 79,500 10,504

76. Sanming Sha County Changxing Road Aug 2018 Commercial and 263 144 55% 118,806 2,210East Parcel A Residential

77. Fuzhou Fuqing Parcel 19 Aug 2018 Commercial and 739 81 11% 158,413 4,665Residential



80. Wuxi Luoshe New Town Aug 2018 Residential 440 224 51% 67,598 6,509

81. Taizhou Hailing District Yucai Road Aug 2018 Urban Residential and 990 990 100% 145,828 6,789North, Chunhui Road West Commercial Finance (5%)

82. Quanzhou Jinjiang Parcel P2018-26 Aug 2018 Commercial and 115 29 25% 97,589 1,178Residential

83. Yancheng Bazonggou South, Aug 2018 Commercial and 1,636 982 60% 290,904 5,625Baying Road West Parcel Residential (Commercial 5%)

84. Nanning Datang Tianyue Aug 2018 Residential 211 91 43% 156,119 1,352(Educational Parcel)

85. Nanning An’ji Datangshijia Aug 2018 Residential 373 56 15% 141,036 2,648(Water Pump Factory)

86. Nanning Datang Shengshi Aug 2018 Residential 519 78 15% 346,189 1,500


AV

(RMB/m2 )

55




Group’s

Interest

Month of

Acquisition


Note: Data as at 31 December 2018.

87. Nanning Xingning Datangguo Aug 2018 Residential 257 38 15% 86,750 2,957(Used Goods Market)

88. Nanning Datang Zhenguan Aug 2018 Residential 1,559 234 15% 137,577 11,331

89. Jingmen Zhang River Sep 2018 Commercial and 1,151 587 51% 785,433 1,465New District Project Residential

90. Xuzhou Suining Town Sep 2018 Commercial and 91 46 51% 128,421 709West Qingnian Road Residential

91. Zhangzhou Datang An’deguang Sep 2018 Commercial and 190 36 19% 136,754 1,389Residential

92. Nan’an Guanqiao 2018P14 Oct 2018 Commercial and 410 164 40% 211,224 1,941Residential

93. Zhengzhou Changxi Lake A04 Oct 2018 Residential and 2,053 1,047 51% 566,900 3,621Commercial

94. Wuxi Liangxi District Former North Nov 2018 Residential and 308 154 50% 30,949 9,952Vehicle Terminal West Parcel Commercial

95. Zhangzhou Zhongliang An’deguang Nov 2018 Residential/ 235 24 10% 117,568 1,999Commercial Services

96. Nanning Wuxiangtanze Dec 2018 Commercial and 2,239 739 33% 639,964 3,499Parcels 4, 5, 8 Residential

Total 82,336 51,884 16,147,767 5,099

AV

(RMB/m2 )

56

2018 2017 2018 2017

The Yuluxe Sheshan, Shanghai 325 Nov 2005 164 164 67 69

Le Royal Méridien Shanghai 770 Sep 2006 297 345 117 142

Hyatt on the Bund Shanghai 631 Jun 2007 400 388 159 154

Holiday Inn Mudanjiang 265 Dec 2010 33 33 13 10

Holiday Inn Shaoxing 284 Sep 2011 32 28 12 11

Hilton Nanjing Riverside 411 Dec 2011 100 98 29 27

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Wuhu 442 Oct 2013 67 63 15 13

InterContinental Fuzhou 318 Jan 2014 92 97 25 26

Crowne Plaza Shaoxing 453 Mar 2014 95 73 25 18

Yuluxe Hotel Taizhou 262 Aug 2014 32 31 2 3

Hilton Tianjin Eco City 301 Apr 2015 59 46 2 2

DoubleTree by Hilton Ningbo Chunxiao 220 Dec 2015 27 25 -1 1

Hilton Wuhan Riverside 338 Jul 2016 115 99 36 27

Conrad Xiamen 241 Aug 2016 155 133 52 39

DoubleTree by Hilton Ningbo Beilun 379 Dec 2016 55 39 10 16

Hilton Yantai 252 Aug 2017 62 18 9 -1

Hilton Shenyang 329 Jan 2018 65 - 8 -

Le Meridien Hangzhou Binjiang 199 Sep 2018 8 - -2 -

InterContinental Shanghai Wonderland 336 Nov 2018 32 - 10 -

Others 174 18 28 0 1

Total 6,930 1,908 1,708 588 558

Turnover (RMB’ million) EBITDA (RMB’ million)Date of

Commencement

Number of

RoomsHotel

Breakdown of Hotel Projects2

57

2018 2017 2018 2017

Phase I – Dec 2004

Shanghai Shimao Festival City 71,239 Phase II – May 2007 44 37 21 6

(Re-opened – Sep 2018)

Changshu Shimao The Centre 43,357 Jan 2009 23 23 9 9

Beijing Shimao Tower 70,175 Jul 2009 157 154 125 112

Wuhu Shimao Riviera Garden (Commercial) 19,963 Sep 2009 6 8 3 3

Shaoxing Shimao Dear Town 181,605 May 2010 83 83 43 42

Suzhou Shimao Canal Scene (Commercial) 49,993 Jun 2010 33 33 16 15

Shanghai Shimao Shangdu 9,584 Nov 2010 33 35 11 13

Xuzhou Shimao Dongdu (Commercial) 59,471 Jan 2012 14 14 8 5

Kunshan Shimao Plaza 88,249 Apr 2012 52 44 28 26

Jinan Shimao International Plaza 280,641 May 2014 164 115 98 82

Nanjing Strait City (Commercial) 65,719 Dec 2014 30 29 17 10

Quanzhou Shishi Shimao Skyscraper City 156,335 Jan 2017 33 37 16 18

Xiamen Shimao Straits Mansion 37,261 Jan 2017 47 25 17 12

Shanghai Shimao Tower 66,313 Dec 2018 4 - 3 -

Miscellaneous rental Income 48 43 18 10

Commercial Prop related service income 320 312 181 164

Total 1,091 992 611 527

Breakdown of Commercial and Office Premises

Date of

Commencement

Total GFA

(m2)Commercial and Office Premises

Turnover (RMB’ million) EBITDA (RMB’ million)

3

58

Date of

Commencement

Total GFA

(m2)Commercial and Office Premises

Turnover (RMB’ million) EBITDA (RMB’ million)

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to maintain absolute confidentiality regarding the information disclosed in this document.

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prevailing at the time and has not been, and will not be, updated to reflect material developments which may occur after the date

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