Shift to renewable alternatives - IEA Bioenergy
27
Chilean Energy Overview Shift to renewable alternatives Claudio Córdova Industrial Engineer [email protected] Stockholm – April 2006
Transcript of Shift to renewable alternatives - IEA Bioenergy
Chilean Energy OverviewShift to renewable alternatives
Claudio CórdovaIndustrial Engineer
Stockholm – April 2006
Chile Overview
CHILE•Population: 15.116.435 inhbs.
• GDP 2005: MUS$115,300 (+6.3%)
•Capital City: Santiago
•Main cities: Santiago, Viña del Mar, Valparaíso, Concepción, Antofagasta, Punta Arenas
• Country risk** : 65 basis points over US
Treasuries
Country Risk SA:
- Argentina = 390 bp- Brazil = 220 bp- Peru = 206 bp- Chile = 65 bp
Chilean Energy Gross Consumption (Primary Energy Balance-Teracalories per year-2004)
Oil109.140
39%
Natural Gas 75.08827%
Coal 28.82611%
Hydroelectricity18.144
7%
Wood & Others43.11216%
Biogás 0
0%
Energy Gross Production Imports
Oil 2% 98%Natural Gas 26% 74%Coal 4% 96%Hydroelectricity 100% 0%Wood & Others 100% 0%Biogás 0% 0%TOTAL 31% 69%
We strongly depend onexternal energy sources...
InternationalMarket
Argentina
Since 1995
Source: www.cne.cl
Energy Distribution in ChileRenewable & Non-renewable
(Teracalories per year)
Source: www.cne.cl
Non-renewable ;
274.310 ; 100%
Renewable ; 4,57; 0%
Non-renewable Renewable
Non-renewable energy is notdeveloped yet
Geotérmica 0,399%
Wind 0,041%
Biomass0,031%
Solar 4,1089%
Distribution of renewable kindof energies
Since 2004: Interruption of NG flow from Argentina to Chile
Exports to Chile
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0M
ay-0
4
Jun-
04
Jul-0
4
Aug-
04
Sep-
04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05
Feb-
05
Mar
-05
Apr-
05
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug-
05
Sep-
05
[Mm
3/d]
Gas Curtailments to Chile
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
May
-04
Jun-
04
Jul-0
4
Aug-
04
Sep-
04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05
Feb-
05
Mar
-05
Apr-
05
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug-
05
Sep-
05
[Mm
3/d]
Power Plants [MMm3] Distribution [MMm3] Industry [MMm3]
Drivers of NG crisis in Argentina
• 2002 Argentinian authority decide to freeze gas&electricity prices
• Gas&electricity at very low prices
• Demand of gas&electricity increase over 20% in one year
• No new investments in capacity where undertaken
• 2004 Shock of internal demand Cut the exports to Chile
• 2007 Argentinian exportation license will be cancel
GDP and Energy Consumption (Growing in relation to consumption of 1990)
• Chilean energy consumption is growing at the same rate of GDP
GDP
Total Energy
Source: www.cne.cl
GDP and Energy Consumption (Growing in relation to consumption of 1990)
• Chilean Economy will grow over 6% in the coming years
• Chile must develop alternatives source of energy in orderto make its growing sustainable
• LNG – Landfills – Sewage - Biomass
Electricity generation forecast MW
• Up to 2015 Chile needs to multiply by 2 its electricity powergeneration
4.084
4.8595.267
6.2426.695 6.653 6.579 6.737
6.996
7.8678.137 8.312
9.62710.137
10.852
12.870
11.780 11.845
13.060
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MW
There is an opportunitty for alternatives energies
Geographic Areas consuming Natural Gas in Chile
NEA(Gasoducto Noreste Argentino)
Gas consumption in Chile - in MM m3/day
North, 5
Center, 9.5
South, 1.4
Austral, 5.8
Total: 22MM m3/day 2004 figures
Austral
5,8
Norte
5
Sur
1,4
Centro
9,5
Natural Gas Consumption by sectors (%) - Chile 2004
Final Consumption17,0%
Commercial - Gov - Households
4,9%
Industries & Mining11,9%
Transport0,3%
Transformation Centers66,0%
Source: www.cne.cl
Natural Gas Distributors in Chile & NGV Market
Santiago6 EESS GNV
4535 Veh GNV
Total Vehicles = 6540 VehNo. filling stations = 14
Antofagasta – CalamaIndustrial-Electricity
NGV 40 veh x 1 filling station
Santiago & Metropolitan AreaIndustrial-Households-Commercial-
Coolin-Cogeneration-NGV4500 veh x 6 filling station
ValparaisoIndustrial-Hosueholds-NGV
NGV 250 veh x 1 filling station
Viña del Mar - QuillotaIndustrial-Hosueholds-NGV
NGV 250 veh x 1 filling station
ConcepciónIndustrial-Hosueholds
Punta ArenasIndustrial-Hosueholds-NGV
NGV 1500 veh x 5 filling station
NGV : Important Issues
• Transport Authority focused on NGV emissions and safety control very strong regulations
• NG distribution companies promote use of NGV by using marketing incentives
• NGV filling stations Mainly owned by oil companies (Shell – ESSO – Repsol – Copec )
• NGV users Taxis 86% & Fleets 14%
• 100% of vehicles have been converted tu use NGV (bi-fuel) no OEM’s vehicles
NGV : Emmision standard
• Chilena emmisions standard
Fuel for transport: Equivalent comparison
1917
21
12,3
10,9
2,4
4,4
4,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Petrol Diesel LPG NGVFuel
US$
/MM
BTU
TAXFuel
Total = 29,9
Total = 19,4
Total = 25,4
Total = 16,4
Petrol price 0,9 EURO/L (VAT included); Diesel price 0,67 EURO/L (VAT included); NGV price 0,54 EURO/m3 (VAT included); LPG price 0,57 EURO/L (VAT included). Petrol performance 10,24 Km/L; Diesel performance 13,65 Km/L; NGV performance 11 Km/m3; LPG performance 8 Km/L.. Fixed Tax rate for NGV and LPG = 196 EURO/year;Variable Tax for NGV use = 0,09 EURO/m3; Variable Tax for LPG use = 0,07 EURO/m3; 644 CLP/Euro
NGV : Very inexpensive fuel
• NGV is a very inexpensive fuel, but it is not the cheapestone...
Petrol
LPG
NGV
Diesel0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,049
0,0810,078
0,076 0,075 0,075 0,074 0,074 0,074 0,073
0,069
0,0590,056
0,054 0,053 0,053 0,052 0,052 0,051 0,051
0,0880,0880,0880,0880,0880,0880,0880,0880,088 0,0880,091
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
0,07
0,08
0,09
0,10
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000Km/year
EUR
O/K
m
Petrol price 0,9 EURO/L (VAT included); Diesel price 0,67 EURO/L (VAT included); NGV price 0,54 EURO/m3 (VAT included); LPG price 0,57 EURO/L (VAT included). Petrol performance 10,24 Km/L; Diesel performance 13,65 Km/L; NGV performance 11 Km/m3; LPG performance 8 Km/L.. Fixed Tax rate for NGV and LPG = 196 EURO/year;Variable Tax for NGV use = 0,09 EURO/m3; Variable Tax for LPG use = 0,07 EURO/m3; 644 CLP/Euro
NGV development in Metropolitan Area
33 164 168 3051.371
4.472
10.566
14.402
18.82720.737
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Thou
nsan
dsof
cubi
c m
eter
• NG distributors expect to continue pushing the NGV market in Chile
Alternative Solutions
• LNG– April 2005 5 largest energy companies Pool Agreement – February 2005 British Gas was selected by the Pool to supply
LNG and to build infraestructure required – By 2009 the project will be finished and available – Lately, as well as Oil, LNG price shows high volatility
Precios GN Henry Hub y Petróleo Crudo WTI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ene-91 Ene-92 Ene-93 Ene-94 Ene-95 Ene-96 Ene-97 Ene-98 Ene-99 Ene-00 Ene-01 Ene-02 Ene-03 Ene-04 Ene-05
US$ nominal/MBtu
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
US$ nominal/bbl
Henry Hub WTI
Alternative Solution• BIOGAS (around Santiago)
– There is a number of potential projects nearby Santiago – Around 90 Million m3 of Biogas per year
Name Type Capacity Unit Dist. From Santiago
Biogás Production
m3/dayEl Trebal Sewage Treatment Plant 4,4 m3/s 15 Km 1800La Farfana Sewage Treatment Plant 8,8 m3/s 10 Km 36000Los Nogales Sewage Treatment Plant 6,6 m3/s 20 Km 24000Santiago Poniente Landfill 1000 Ton/d 25 Km 36000-50000San Martín Landfill 1000 Ton/d 30 Km 36000-50000Los Colorados Landfill 5000 Ton/d 80 Km 72000-100000
Source: Biogas Upgrading for NG Grid - S.Bernstein
Alternative Solution
• BIOGAS (potential uses)– Grid injection (Gas & electricity) – Biogas for industries– CHP (Co-generation)– NGV
• BIOGAS IN CHILE– Along Chile there are 282 landfills (Catastro Rellenos sanitarios 2002)
– Over 300 Millions m3 Biogas in the whole country
Production of Home Solid Waste – Chile, 1996
Source: OPS/OMS 1998
RegiónPopulation Thousands TON/Año
Millions m3 Biogás/Año
Millions m3 GN Eq
I 353 83.880 8,39 4,19II 430 102.240 10,22 5,11III 232 55.080 5,51 2,75IV 394 93.600 9,36 4,68V 1.355 341.280 34,13 17,06Metropolitan 5.553 1.819.080 181,91 90,95VI 494 106.560 10,66 5,33VII 544 117.720 11,77 5,89VIII 1.468 317.160 31,72 15,86IX 536 115.920 11,59 5,80X 649 140.040 14,00 7,00XI 66 14.400 1,44 0,72XII 140 30.240 3,02 1,51TOTAL 12.214 3.337.200 333,72 166,86
Conclusions
1. Chile needs to diversify its energy sources
– Chile depends strongly on external sources– Oil Price will remain high in the meantime– Our Natural Gas supplier is no longer reliable– GDP depends strongly on new energy projects– Renewable energies are not developed yet!
2. There is a national concern about Energy procurement– Government
• CNE National Energy Authority• ENAP National Petroleum Company • Corfo supporting local and external projects (financing tools)
– Private Sector • Electricity companies• Natural Gas Companies developing Biogas projects
Conclusions
3. Biogas projects: high interest to developed them
– There are 282 landfills along Chile – Represents over 300 millions m3 of Biogas– Natural Gas distributors are already developing Biogas
projects– Chile does not have comprehensive expertise in Biogas
technology• Cleaning • Up-grade techniques • NGV
4. It could be feasible to apply Swedish expertise in Chile
Conclusions
5. Chile: the strongest economy in the region• Open market• Low risk • GDP growing forecast will be around 6%• Low inflation (3%)• Low corruption index
6. So far, Chile is the investment platform for multinational companies that wish to invest in Latin America
Thank you very much
Chilean landscapes
Claudio Córdova - ChileIndustrial Engineer
Landfills composition in Latin America(% Weight)
H2O Paper Metal Glass Textile Plastic Organics OthersMéxico 45 20 3,2 8,2 4,2 6,1 43 27Peru 50 10 2,1 1,3 1,4 3,2 50 32Chile 50 18,8 2,3 1,6 4,3 10,3 49,3 13,4Colombia 0 18,3 1,6 4,6 3,8 14,2 52,3 5,2Ecuador 0 10,5 1,6 2,2 0 4,5 71,4 9,8Argentina 50 20,3 3,9 8,1 5,5 8,2 53,2 0,8
Source: Diagnóstico de situación del manejo de residuos sólidos municipales en Amérca Latina y el Caribe; BID – Organización Panamericana para la Salud 1998
Natural Gas Consumption Forecast 2003-2011
(For Households & as raw material)
GOBIERNO DE CHILESUBSECRETARÍA DE TRANSPORTES
ENTRADA EN VIGENCIA
Tipo de Vehículo Norma que se aplicará
Regiones (excluida RM)
Solicitud de primera inscripción en el Registro Nacional de Vehículos Motorizados del Servicio
de Registro Civil e Identificación
EPA 91 I a XII A contar de 9 meses de publicada la norma en el Diario Oficial
EPA 94 FEDERAL o EURO III I a XII sept. 2006
EPA 91 I a XII A contar de 9 meses de publicada la norma en el Diario Oficial
EPA 94 FEDERAL o EURO III I a XII sept. 2006
EPA 94 o EURO II (Diesel) I a III y XI a XII A contar de 9 meses de publicada la norma en el
Diario Oficial
EPA 98 o EURO III (Diesel) IV a X
3 meses después de la entrada en vigencia a nivel nacional de la norma que establezca un contenido
azufre diesel < 350 ppm.EPA 98 o EURO III
(Gas) I a XII A contar de 9 meses de publicada la norma en el Diario Oficial
PESADOS
MEDIANOS
LIVIANOS
