Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040English Summary

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how auto-mobility can take place in the future, and in particular how it can be as sustainable as possible.

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in germany, the economy and people’s incomes continue to grow and this means that levels of pri-vate consumption and expenditure on transport may also continue to rise. however, in contrast to

population of roughly 9.6 billion people. With rising levels of car ownership and an increasingly urbanised environment, the question arises as to

Today we are seeing more and more regions of the world in which people’s lives and mobility are increasingly shaped by the automobile. There are already more than 900 million passenger cars around the world. in the world’s highly developed economies, the level of passenger car ownership is usually between 400 and 600 passenger cars

per 1,000 inhabitants; in germany the figure is around 530 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants. The global level of passenger car ownership is cur-rently 123 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants.

in emerging markets and developing countries, the level of car ownership is often still below 100 pas-senger cars per 1,000 inhabitants. With increasing incomes, the pace of growth of passenger car own-ership has picked up in many emerging markets (chamon et al. 2008; ranD/ifmo 2014). By the middle of the century, the global passenger car fleet could grow to around 2 billion with a global

The present Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040 are the 26th edition of the Shell Passenger Car Study. The aim of the Shell Passenger Car Scenarios is to explore the future of auto-mobility in Germany with the aid of expert assessments, scenario technique and quantitative forecasts. The key results are the future level of passenger car ownership, passenger car mileages, the total number or fleet of passenger cars as well as the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of passen-ger cars. The new edition of the Passenger Car Study for 2014 extends through to 2040 for the first time and was drawn up in collaboration with Prognos AG, Basel.

Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040

gloBal auTo-moBiliSaTion iS accElEraTing

car oWnErShip in SElEcTED counTriES

populaTion ForEcaST gErmany

ShEll DEuTSchlanD, hamBurgDr. Jörg adolf (project lead) ■ Dr. christoph Balzer ■ arndt Joedicke ■ uwe Schabla ■ Dr. Karsten Wilbrand

prognoS ag, BaSEl Dr. Stefan rommerskirchen (project lead) ■ natalia anders ■ alex auf der maur ■ Dr. oliver Ehrentraut ■ lisa Krämer ■ Samuel Straßburg

the global population, the german population is falling – from 81 million people today to around 77 million people by 2040, which means 4 million inhabitants less. The proportion of younger and middle age groups is falling, while the number of over-65s will increase markedly from 21 to 31 %. The number of private households will increase from 40 to 41.3 million, with the average size of households falling from roughly 2 to 1.8 people.

in order to forecast levels of passenger car own-ership and passenger car mileages, factors that may influence passenger car ownership and use were examined using the latest mobility investiga-tions and consumer surveys (DiW/TnS 2013).

Socio-economic factors influencing auto-mobility can be divided up into drivers and constraints.

The factors that drive the availability and use of passenger cars include employment and a high income, which is generally also associated with a higher level of education. greater auto-mobility ena-bles urban community structures to expand into the surrounding area (suburbanisation). The strong-est drivers of auto-mobility include car ownership by women; women have been catching up men for

DEmographic changE in gErmany

FacTorS inFluEncing car oWnErShip anD car uSE

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paSSEngEr carS anD alTErnaTivE mEanS oF TranSporT moToriSaTion By agE group (carS pEr 1,000 inhaBiTanTS)

Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040 car oWnErShip anD milEagES

for this fall is the partial decline in the level of car ownership among men. The level of car owner-ship among men will reach its peak in 2016; it will decline from the figure today (2014) of 645 cars to 609 cars per 1,000 men by 2040. in addi-tion, the level of car ownership among the male age groups below 34 years of age and that of the over-75s is falling slightly, while younger old peo-ple up to 75 years of age are still increasing their level of car ownership. Finally, the number of peo-ple in the age groups with the highest car owner-ship levels (from roughly 35 to 60 years of age) is shrinking.

Women are making up an increasing proportion of car owners. The level of car ownership among women will increase from 358 cars per 1,000 women today to 414 in 2040. The ratio of female car ownership. i.e. female vs. male car ownership, will also increase significantly from today’s figure of 56 % to 68 % in 2040. The increasing level of car ownership among women will in fact cause the level of ownership in the middle age groups (45 –75 years of age) to rise as a whole, particu-larly among 60- to 70-year-olds.

a (single) Trend scenario up to 2040 has been developed and quantified for the future develop-ment of passenger car ownership and mileages in germany. The key results for passenger car owner-ship, the passenger car fleet and mileages are as follows:

Car ownership The level of passenger car ownership in the ger-man population (including legal entities) will rise from around 544 today (2013) to almost 570 in the second half of the 2020s – and then decrease to 558 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 2040. The level of car ownership across all inhab-itants (excluding legal entities) was 498 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 2013. it will peak in 2028 with a figure of 522 cars per 1,000 inhab-itants and then revert back to 510 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants by 2040. one main reason

the impact of the way that younger people spend their money cannot (yet) be reliably assessed on the basis of the data that has been collected thus far. longer periods of academic education and/or vocational training mean that the achievement of passenger car mobility is being pushed back to older age groups. alongside the trend towards suburbanisation, the level of urbanisation in ger-many continues to increase to the detriment of rural areas. changes to household structures are also curbing levels of passenger car ownership and use; more and more single-person and two-person households and fewer and fewer children in the households are resulting in less auto-mobility.

many years when it comes to levels of car owner-ship (catch-up effect). and older people also use a passenger car more frequently nowadays than they did 10 years ago, which is also evident from the much higher levels of expenditure on mobility by young senior citizens.

The factors that inhibit the availability and use of passenger cars include the mobility behaviour of younger people. younger people have a different attitude to owning a car and are increasingly keen on information and communication technology. as a consequence, younger people have access to a car less often than they did 10 years ago; but

DrivErS → morE auTo-moBiliTy conSTrainTS → lESS auTo-moBiliTy

higher labour force participation longer periods of training

higher income more single people

car ownership by women mobility behaviour of younger people

Expenditure on transport by young senior citizens Expenditure on transport by younger people (?)

Suburbanisation urbanisation

car ownership among older people Fewer children

mobility of the future also means that people’s mobility behaviour changes and alternative means of transport are increasingly used; examples of these include the bicycle, car-sharing or even long-distance bus travel. Such new forms of mobility could make a greater contribution to passenger transport in the future. after all, today in germany there are already more than 70 million bicycles, almost one million car-sharing users and over 200 long-distance bus routes. But how great is the potential of these new means of transport in reality?

the percentage of passenger transport mileage on land that is travelled by bicycle is roughly 3 %, the number of car-sharing vehicles is 14,000 and travel by long-distance bus accounts for less than a tenth of one per cent of passenger transport mileage across all motorised modes of land trans-port. even if in the future there are further shifts towards new means of transport – in some cases this may even mean more mileage being travelled overall – they will not be able to replace the passenger car in the mobility mix.

the share of motorised individual transport in passenger transport mileage by all modes of land transport is more than 80 % today and it will con-tinue to remain at today’s level because the various influences on choice of motorised modes of land transport (passenger cars, motorcycles, trains and public road passenger transport) ultimately offset one another. Consequently, the passenger car must continue to be regarded as the main means of passenger transport in all areas of transport and mobility policy.

2013 2020 2030 2040

male Female male Female male Female male Female

18–34 368,5 282,9 364,2 297,5 352,6 307,8 344,9 313,7

35–64 939,9 575,0 935,4 620,1 901,8 655,6 895,7 680,3

65+ 820,2 265,0 804,1 314,1 777,3 363,9 696,4 343,1

Total male / female 642,8 358,3 646,4 391,8 631,1 413,8 609,1 413,7

Total including legal entities 544,4 564,6 568,3 557,5

paSSEngEr car oWnErShip anD milEagES

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pEaK car in gErmany?

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Gasoline 29.96 = 68.3%

Diesel 13.22 = 30.1%

Alternative 0.68 =1.6%

LPG 0.5 = 73.7%

Hybrid 0.086 = 12.6%

CNG 0.079 = 11.6%

Electric 0.01 = 1.8%

Other 0.002 = 0.3%

TOTAL 43.85

Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040 car propulSion SySTEmS anD FuElS

This also reflects a fall in the per capita passenger kilometres travelled (in pkm) overall as a result of demographic change. The total mileages for all passenger cars will only continue to rise until around 2020; they will increase from today’s figure of 610 billion to 626 billion vehicle kilometres and then fall back down to the level of 2005 by 2040.

The share of passenger cars in the means of trans-port mix remains more or less unchanged at more than 80 %.

(18,900 passenger car km per year) and the cars registered to legal entities (almost 25,000 passenger car km per annum). however, greater use of cars and a rising proportion of older people among the population will mean that older people will account for a greater proportion of total pas-senger car miles covered.

The car mileage covered per person will rise from 11,330 km today to 11,650 km by 2025 and then reduce by 2040 to 11,400 km per inhabitant.

Passenger car fleetThe total passenger car fleet for all owner groups will increase from 44.2 million today (2014) to a maximum of 45.2 million in 2022 and then fall to 42.7 million passenger cars in 2040 – but there will also be almost 4 million fewer inhabitants.

around 8.5 % of today’s total passenger car fleet or 3.5 million cars are registered to legal entities; there will not be much change in the proportion and number of such cars by 2040.

in relation to passenger car transport in industrialised countries where there is a high level of car ownership, peak car is now often spoken about; this means that at some point levels of passenger car ownership or mileages reach a peak and then begin to decline. this phenomenon is being seen in the USa and in great Britain, but also in germany – generally among younger people (ifmo 2013). is peak car also around the corner for germany? and if so, when?

for all three passenger car indicators (motorisation, fleet and mileage), a peak will be reached in germany in the 2020s. Comparing indices, the size of the german passenger car fleet will reach its peak slightly later than the frequency of use of passenger cars as expressed by the to-tal passenger car mileage by german passenger cars per year. the decline in the passenger car fleet is partly attributable to the decline in the number of people. By contrast, the reduction in the level of passenger car ownership and also passenger car usage is reflective both of shifts in the age structure of the population and of a change in the mobility behaviour of groups within the population.

Consequently, a peak for passenger car ownership and use is looming in the 2020s. however, the peak is very flat; in fact, it is rather like a plateau. all three passenger car indicators will continue to be at the level of the previous decade or even of today in 2040. there will therefore not be a peak car in the sense of a sudden collapse in levels of passenger car ownership and use. as the mobility behaviour of people and groups is relatively stable, passenger car mobility only changes very gradually with the pace of generational change and due to the effect of age structure.90

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pEaK car inDicES (1995 = 100)

Passenger car mileagesThe intensity of passenger car use, as indicated by the annual average mileage per car, has been decreasing since the end of the 1990s. one major reason for the decreasing intensity of car use in germany is the steadily increasing motorisation.

The average annual car mileage will continue to fall from 14,000 km today to around 13,600 km per vehicle and per year by 2040. The biggest mileages are covered by the 30 to 39-year-olds

an even more important role than the passenger car in the means of transport mix is played by gas-oline-powered and diesel-powered vehicles in the passenger car fleet: in 2014, 68.3 % or around

30.0 million of the 43.9 million passenger cars registered in germany were fitted with a gasoline engine, 30.1 % or 13.2 million were fitted with a diesel engine and almost 1.6 % or 680,000 cars were fitted with alternative propulsion systems. among the alternative propulsion systems, lpg cars lead the way with 500,867 of them ahead of hybrid vehicles with 85,575 and passenger cars that run on natural gas with 79,065 as well

paSSEngEr car propulSion SySTEmS anD FuElS

paSSEngEr car FlEET in gErmany, 2014, in millionS

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Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040 comBuSTion EnginE vS. ElEcTric propulSion

electric propulsion systems do not produce any direct emissions. however, the efficiency and life-cycle assessment differ for combustion engines and electric motors over the entire use chain much less than the level of motor efficiency.

The most significant trend evident with passenger car propulsion technologies is the increasing electrification of passenger cars with a combustion engine; in the near and medium future passenger cars will be powered by a combination of electric propulsion and a combustion engine – the hybrid car. hybrids combine many advantages of both propulsion technologies, including efficiency, power and range.

one key issue for the fleet of passenger cars in the future is the relationship between cars with a combustion engine and cars with electric propul-sion systems. combustion engines are continuing to be developed and are becoming more efficient. But compared to combustion engines, electric propulsion systems (plug-in hybrids, battery-oper-ated electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles) display much higher levels of motor efficiency. in addition,

from gasoline and diesel fuels. in 2012, passenger cars consumed 19.7 million tonnes of gasoline and 14.6 million tonnes of diesel (DiW 2013).

To date only biofuels have managed to gain substantial market shares, mainly in the form of admixtures to fossil fuels (Fritsche et al. 2012). however, biofuels are subject to technical limits on admixture and they have to meet strict sustaina-bility requirements. other alternative fuels such as gas fuels (lpg, cng), electric energy and also hydrogen currently still play only a fairly minor role in the mixture of fuels used in passenger cars. Today the share of biofuels in the fuel mix is close to 6 %, whereas gas fuels make up approx. 2 %.

The environmental benefits of alternative fuels (lower emissions) are usually contrasted with drawbacks in terms of economics, energy storage and handling. moreover, setting up and main-taining an alternative or additional infrastructure for generation and distribution of alternative fuels demands high levels of investment and correspond-ing passenger car fleets.

as 12,156 electric cars and 2,081 other cars. changes to the mix of propulsion systems among the passenger car fleet are due to the fact that there is a persistent trend whereby almost 50 % of new vehicles registered are powered by diesel (dieselisation). With the alternative propulsion systems, passenger cars that are electrically powered, in particular hybrid vehicles, are display-ing above-average growth among new vehicle registrations.

on the other hand, among existing cars electrically powered passenger cars only account for 0.2 % of the fleet, whereas passenger cars with a combus-tion engine, which means a gasoline, diesel or gas engine, account for 99.8 % of german passenger cars. and of the approximately 100,000 cars with an electric motor, most of them – namely hybrids including plug-in hybrids – have a combustion engine as well.

The supply of fuel follows the propulsion technol-ogies used for the fleet of cars. The existing fleet of passenger cars is supplied with power mainly

paSSEngEr car FuEl conSumpTion

comBuSTion EnginE vErSuS ElEcTric propulSion

in principle electric mobility is a “disruptive technology” (Christensen 1997) which might one day completely replace an established tech-

nology. nonetheless there is – both in individual passenger cars and in the overall car fleet – more evidence of evolution rather than

technological revolution among the passenger car propulsion systems. the product of this technology evolution is the hybrid car.

using scenario technique, automobile futures for different propulsion/fuel configurations are exam-ined: a Trend scenario which continues passenger car trends of the recent past and is based on increasing use of biofuels, and an alternative scenario which is very ambitious in terms of energy policy and climate conservation and will involve much greater and faster changes in the passenger car sector. The alternative scenario examines in particular the potential impacts of increased electrification of propulsion systems and fuels. in

addition to electric mobility, recent discussion has increasingly touted natural gas as another alterna-tive source of power and fuel for passenger cars (Shell 2013). in order to shed light on the potential of gas propulsion systems and gas fuels in car transport, a gas mini-scenario is also looked at as an alternative version of the Trend scenario.

New registrationsThe development of the future fleet of passen-ger cars will be determined by the level and struc-ture of registrations of new passenger cars. The Trend scenario envisages that new registrations each year will fall slightly from today’s figure of around 3.0 million to 2.9 million new registrations per annum; the alternative scenario envisages an

ScEnarioS For ThE gErman paSSEngEr car FlEET

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Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040 ScEnarioS

1.5 million fuel cell vehicles. The total num-ber of all gasoline- and diesel-powered cars will shrink to 30.7 million vehicles by 2040.

Energy consumptionin 2013 german passenger cars consumed around 50 billion litres of gasoline equiv-alent (lgE) or 1,590 petajoules (pJ) of energy. gasoline fuels accounted for 55 % of domestic consumption, with diesel fuels making up 43 %. in the Trend scenario the level of energy consumption will fall by 45 % to 27 billion lgE or 868 pJ of energy; in the alternative scenario it is more than halved, down to just 24 billion lgE or 759 pJ of energy.

By 2040 liquid gasoline and diesel fuels (including biogenic substitutes) will still con-tinue to dominate the passenger car sector: in the Trend scenario approximately 90 % of the energy consumed is liquid fuels and in the alternative scenario the figure is still more than 80 %.

in the Trend scenario gasoline and die-sel fuels can be admixed with 20 % biofu-els; biofuel consumption rises from 2.1 to 3.3 billion lgE. in the alternative scenario electric energy develops by the end of the 2030s to become the most important alter-native source of energy. in the alternative scenario the level of consumption of propul-sion electricity rises to 71 pJ. 10 % of final energy will thus cover 20 % of passenger car mileage. Despite enhanced 10 % admix-ture, biofuel use will fall to 1.4 billion lgE.

Greenhouse gas emissions The direct greenhouse gas emissions (tank-to-wheel), which fell between 1990 and

increasing pace of automotive change and that new registrations will rise to 3.3 million passenger cars per annum. Even if the new car registration figures are higher, the aver-age age of the existing fleet will continue to rise, specifically from today’s figure of 8.8 to 9.4 years in the alternative scenario and to as much as 10.9 years in the Trend scenario.

in terms of propulsion systems, gasoline and diesel-powered cars and their hybridised counterparts will account for three-quar-ters of new car registrations by 2040 in the Trend scenario; by contrast electric pro-pulsion systems will make up 20 %. in the alternative scenario, on the other hand, the pace of automotive change and thus the proportion of alternative propulsion sys-tems will increase significantly. This is par-ticularly true of electric propulsion systems, which will increase their share of new car registrations to more than 40 % by 2040, while pure and hybridised gasoline and die-sel-powered passenger cars will fall to 55 %.

Passenger car fleetThe mix of propulsion systems among the existing fleet of passenger cars changes only relatively slowly in the Trend scenario. of almost 43 million vehicles in 2040, over 36 million are fitted with conventional gaso-line and diesel drive trains and their hybrid-ised versions; 4.7 million of them are fit-ted with electric propulsion systems (plug-in, electric battery and fuel cell). in the alter-native scenario, the fleet of electric propul-sion systems will grow to a total of 10.1 mil-lion vehicles – including 5.5 million plug-in hybrids, 3.1 million battery-powered and

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FLEETNEW REGISTRATIONS

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grEEnhouSE gaS EmiSSionS in gErmany (2011)*

Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040 auTo-moBiliTy anD EnErgy TranSiTion

and energy policy requires the member States to hit a binding overall target for greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 of a reduction of 40 % compared to 1990. To do this, the intention is that the non-emission trading sectors – including the transport sector – should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by around 30 % in the period from 2005 to 2030 (Eu-com 2014). Discussions about further renewable energy and efficiency targets and their binding nature are still ongoing. Finally, the energy and climate package of 2008 also sets an interim target for a reduction in green-house gases for the german non-emission trading sector of 14 % in the period from 2005 to 2020 (Ep/council 2009).

in respect of direct greenhouse emissions, passen-ger cars will achieve a reduction of roughly 14 % in the period from 1990 to 2020 in both scenarios and from 1990 to 2040 of a good 50 % in the

Today passenger cars consume around 15 % of final energy and cause around 13 % of combus-tion-related co2 emissions in germany. how sus-tainably will auto-mobility develop in germany in relation to national and European energy and cli-mate targets?

Energy targets Energy transition (Energiewende) targets which are relevant to the transport sector and thus to pas-senger cars can be gleaned from the energy blue-print (Energiekonzept) published by the german government in 2010 (BmWi 2014). There are two targets for energy consumption in the transport

2013 from 122 million tonnes to 116 mil-lion tonnes, will continue to fall to 60 mil-lion tonnes in the Trend scenario and to 48 million tonnes in the alternative scenario. if the upstream-chain or well-to-tank emissions are also included, the well-to-wheel emis-sions evolve from a historic high of 145 mil-lion tonnes (1990) to 136 million tonnes (2013) and by 2040 in the Trend scenario they will fall to 66 million tonnes and in the alternative scenario to 59 million tonnes.

Gas scenarioin the gas scenario the proportion of gas propulsion systems among the some 3 mil-lion new car registrations each year will grow continuously to 25 % by 2040 com-pared with 3 % in the Trend scenario; within the newly registered gas propulsion sys-tems the percentages will be 40 % for cng drives, also 40 % for cng hybrid drives and 20 % for lpg drives. in 2040, there will be 6.3 million gas drives that will then account for a total of 15 % of the passen-ger car fleet.

if the proportion of gas sales in domestic consumption of passenger cars is currently only around 2 %, in the gas scenario it will grow at the expense of gasoline and die-sel fuels by 2040 to 20 % (120 pJ of cng including biogas, and 52 pJ of lpg). Thanks to the lower specific co2 emissions per energy unit of gas, with 58 million tonnes of direct or tank-to-wheel emissions an addi-tional saving of 2.5 million tonnes can be achieved compared with the Trend scenario in 2040. Well-to-wheel emissions will fall to 63 million tonnes and will then be 3 million tonnes below the level envisaged by the Trend scenario.

sector: compared to 2005, final energy consump-tion should fall by 10 % by 2020 and by 40 % by 2050.

The national final energy target for the entire trans-port sector would be achieved early by passenger car traffic according to the Trend scenario because a fall in the final energy consumption of more than 10 % would be achieved by 2020 and a fall of around 50 % would be achieved by 2040.

Climate targets For greenhouse gas emissions there is no sectoral target but just a national one: in total the (direct) greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced in the period from 1990 to 2020 by 40 % and by 2040 by 70 %. Furthermore, the European climate

Trend scenario and more than 60 % in the alterna-tive scenario. The well-to-wheel emissions, which are relevant to the overall level of greenhouse gases, will likewise fall by between 50 and 60 % in the period from 1990 to 2040. Differences in the respective energy mix mean that the upstream chain emissions will fall by a greater extent in the Trend scenario (by almost four-fifths) compared to the alternative scenario (by only around a half).

however, in the delimitation which is chosen for the purpose of making a comparison with the pas-senger car tank-to-wheel emissions – in contrast to the national trend tables (uBa 2013) – the direct emissions listed also include the emissions from the combustion of biofuels.

auTo-moBiliTy anD EnErgy TranSiTion

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BmWi 2014: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft (BmWi), Zweiter monitoring-Bericht „Energie der Zukunft“, Berlin 2014.

chamon et al. 2008: marcos chamon, paolo mauro, yohei okawa, mass car owners-hip in the emerging market giants, Economic policy, april 2008, pp. 243-296.

christensen 1997: clayton m. christensen, Disruptive innovations, new york 1997.

DiW 2013: Deutsches institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DiW), verkehr in Zahlen 2013/2014, hamburg 2013.

DiW/TnS 2013: Deutsches institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DiW), TnS infratest Sozi-alforschung (TnS), Sozio-oekonomisches panel (SoEp v.29). Daten der Jahre 1984-2012, Berlin/münchen 2013.

Ep/council 2009: European parliament/council (Ep/council), Decision no. 406/2009/Ec on the effort of member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emis-sions to meet the community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020, in: official Journal of the European union l 140/136-148, Brussels, June 6th 2009.

Eu-com 2014: European commission (Eu-com), a policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030, communication, com (2014), 15 final, Brussels, January 22nd 2014.

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ifmo 2013: institut für mobilitätsforschung (ifmo), „mobility y“- The Emerging Travel patterns of generation y, munich 2013.

KBa 2014a: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBa), Bestand an Kraftfahrzeugen nach umwelt-merkmalen, FZ 13, Flensburg 2014.

KBa 2014b: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBa), neuzulassungen von Kraftfahrzeugen nach umwelt-merkmalen, FZ 14, Flensburg 2014.

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EnErgy anD climaTE pErFormancE vS. policy TargETS

Final EnErgy (TranSporT) DirEcT ghg EmiSSionS (naTional) DirEcT ghg EmiSSionS (Eu non-ETS)

Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040 poliTical mEaSurES

The Trend scenario already results in substantial energy savings and reductions in greenhouse gases. nevertheless, the long-term energy and climate targets represent a real challenge for the passenger car sector. By making use of gas

When it comes to achieving the energy and cli-mate targets, it should be borne in mind that alter-native propulsion technologies and fuels are easier to use in the passenger car sector than in other modes of transport; this means that overall targets for the transport sector can only be achieved if passenger cars deliver above-average savings in terms of energy and greenhouse gas emissions.

nonetheless, in the transport industry and therefore for passenger cars too, the potential for substitution is lower due to the energy storage requirement in transport than it is in the transformation sector, for instance, or in the other stationary final energy sectors.

if the direct emissions of the biofuels are then removed from the Trend and alternative scenario, the direct greenhouse gas emissions for passenger car transport will fall even more markedly by 2040, specifically to around 48 million tonnes in the Trend scenario and to approx. 44 million tonnes in the alternative scenario. Despite emission reductions of almost two-thirds, the national greenhouse gas emissions saving target will still not be achieved.

on the other hand, the Eu climate targets for non-emission trading sectors could be achieved. By 2020 the tank-to-wheel emissions (excluding bio-fuels) will fall compared to 2005 by around 14 % and by 2030 they will fall by more than 40 %.

drives and gas fuels and more electric propulsion systems, even higher savings than those outlined in the Trend scenario could be realised. What could policymakers do to accelerate the energy transition in the transport sector to an even greater extent?

Efficiency Further energy savings can be achieved by the pro-pulsion systems being more efficient. here hybrid, battery-powered and fuel cell passenger cars have

clear advantages over combustion engines. how-ever, new drive technologies can only have an impact on the passenger car fleet slowly through new car registrations. To achieve an even faster energy transformation in the passenger car sector, the passenger car fleet would have to be turned over more quickly because even in the alternative scenario the average age of vehicle rises.

But alternative electric drives are still compara-tively expensive. in addition, they require – with the exception of hybrids – completely new supply infrastructures. as the technical, economic and also ecological conditions for delivering complete electrification of the passenger car traffic are still not in place, the fully hybridised passenger car is currently a compromise solution for a large number of applications.

Fuels additional co2 savings can also be achieved through lower-emission fuels. This is where sustain-able biofuels or even gas fuels come into consider-ation. liquid biofuels have the advantage that they can be used in the current vehicle fleet and in the existing supply infrastructure – and it is the drive technology and fuels used in the existing vehicle fleet, less than new car registrations, which ulti-mately dictate the current sectoral co2 emissions.

gas fuels also offer emission benefits versus liquid fossil fuels. in order to deliver them, gas-powered passenger cars must account for a substantial share of the existing fleet; but in some respects they still require additional infrastructure. To allow electric drives to finally also deliver greenhouse gas savings, their energy increasingly needs to come from renewable energy sources – which is currently only partly the case.

100 % 2005

60 % 2050

100 % 1990

30 % 2040

100 % 2005

70 % 2030

48–55 % 2040

36–39 % 2040

ca. 60 % 2030

Status quo

Targets

performance

poliTical mEaSurES

Shell Deutschland oil gmbh22284 hamburgwww.shell.de

hamburg 2014