Shaul Arieli's Presentation in Australia
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Transcript of Shaul Arieli's Presentation in Australia
The Feasibility of the Two State Idea:
Israel – Palestine
Shaul Arieli
2015
• 673,400 Arabs • 83,790 Jews
Two national narratives which contradict each other. But every one of them has political, legal
and moral validity.
: “…only by means of partition can these two opposing national aspirations be manifested in concrete terms, and the two peoples allowed to take their place as independent nations in the international community and in the United Nations…” (Partition Report).
“There Is No Alternative”The two sides entered into the peace process
in 1988-1993 in the belief that the diplomatic option was the best way of
securing their national interests in light of the regional and global developments at the
time:
USAGulf WarDemographic balance Intifada
YearIsrael
(78%)
2013 79.3%
2020 78.5%2024 78.1%
2030 77.4%2034 77.4%
2050 78.7%
Demographic Trend - Jewish Population
West Bank – Israeli Settlement
570,000 Israelis(100%)
137 Settlements(100%)
130,000 Israelis(23%)
107 Settlements(78%)
440,000 Israelis(77%)
30 Settlements(22%)
97.1%Jewish
communi
ties
Jewish
residents
Arab
communi
ties
Arab
residents
Total
residents %Arabs
Jordan Valley &
Nth. Dead Sea 45 51,135 249 664,152 715,287 92.8
Western Judea &
Samaria 34 83,287 163 422,787 506,074 83.5
Mountain Ridge 28
31,313 284 1,065,151 1,096,4
64 97.1
Jerusalem
Surrounds 30 387,552 96 517,155 90,4707 57.1
Total 137 553,287
792
2,669,245 3,153,5
32
83
Percentage of Palestinians in 4 zones of Jewish settlement
92.8%
83.5%
57.1%
YearLand of Israel
(100%)Israel without Gaza
2013 52.2% 61%
2020 49%2024 47.7% 57%
2030 44%2034 46.4% 55.8%
2050 33%
Demographic Trend - Jewish Population
Israel
Democracy
Jewish state
Jewish state
On the regional and national level, demographic processes are influencing three key goals: 1. To be a Jewish state2. To be a democratic state3. To extend over the entire
historical territoryHowever, Israel can only realize two of these three goals simultaneously:4.It can be Jewish and
territorial…But not democratic
5.It can be democratic and territorial…
But not Jewish6.It can be Jewish and
democratic…But not territorial
Geography
Demographics
• Borders: 1967 lines as a basis and territorial exchange on a 1:1 ratio
• Jerusalem: Division of East Jerusalem between the two capitals
• Refugees: Solution to the refugee question that is not based on immigration to to Israel
• Security: The Palestinian State will be demilitarized and all forms of violence must end.
• Two states, a national home for the Jewish people and a national home for the Palestinian people
Parameters of an Agreement
428.5 sq.km
21 km
85% of Israelis in 56 communities under Israeli sovereignty
90K
63% of Israelis in 30 communities under Israeli sovereignty
220K
The basic tensionThe fundamental dilemma How to reconcile reliable
security arrangements with the minimum possible
disruption to Palestinian sovereignty?
? ? ? ? ?
Key Assumptions:1. It is not possible to separate the Palestinian issue and
the regional situation.2. The Middle East suffers from a high level of
uncertainty, it is difficult to predict where the processes lead us.
Israeli Perception
10M internally displaced 3.5M refugees Over 250K deaths
10% children
1/3 buildings destroyed ½ hospitals destroyed
CW attacks ½ the army defected (mostly seniors)
The Situation in SyriaChall
enge
s
IraqChall
enge
s
1. Divided State 2. Iranian dominance and influence through
Shiite militias
Iran’s growing influence
The major changes in Past decades
1. USA -The only superpower(1988)2. Peace Agreement with Egypt(1979)3. Mutual recognition between Israel and
the PLO & Oslo Agreement(1993)4. Peace Agreement with Jordan(1994)5. Arab League Peace Initiative(2002)
Bilateral security: From control on the ground to disarmament and security arrangements
Key Assumptions
3. To establish a stable, functional and responsible Palestinian state without harming Israel's security needs.
4. Israel wants to ensure that if the agreement with the Palestinians collapses, its security situation would not worsen.
5. It takes time to rebuild the trust between the parties
• Preventing terrorism and attacks from the borders – and restrictions on armament.
• Establishing "conditional security depth."
• Security cooperation – bilateral, trilateral (Jordan, Israel, Palestine) and regional.
• An international force to operate as part of the security arrangements between Israel and Palestine, undertaking monitoring and mentoring and deterring violations of the agreement.
The Israeli Security Perception Regarding a Future Agreement
with the Palestinians is Based on Four Pillars:
Agreed Security Arrangements
1. Demilitarization2. Presence of international forces3. Early warning stations4. Israeli control of airspace
Security in the two state solution
• The duration of temporary IDF presence: 5-15-40
• Transfer of responsibility: multinational force/NATO/American/Palestinian
• Crossing points supervision
The Jerusalem Issue“We won’t be asked to divide something
that is already divided” (Teddy Kollek)
Jerusalem: Division of Neighborhoods on Demographic Basis
2.5" ר קמ70,000 Residents• Palestinians -
Demographic division
• Israel- International Management
Residence – Palestinian refugees may return to the Palestinian state, remain in their host countries or emigrate to a different consenting state.
Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 1000 each year for 5 yearsPalestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 10,000 each year for 10 yearsCompensation – an international mechanism will manage the financing of treatment and compensation of the refugees issue
Refugees
No Real Alternatives
Division of Responsibilities in the West Bank
Area A1,173,69
7
Area B886,011
Area C 74,756
Total population of West Bank: 2,134,464
Area A18%
Area B22%
Area C60%
% of Area of the West Bank
Distribution of the Total Population in the West Bank
“Stability Initiative:”“Israel will Annex C Areas (60% of
the West Bank) and the Palestinians will have a “Self Rule” in the Palestinian Cities” (Naftali Bennet, 2012)
One State
•Gaza?•Refugees?•Economy?•Security ?
“Full Annexation :”“To start a process which at the
end of it the Palestinians will have “Blue I.D, Yellow Number, Social insurance and a Right to vote to the Knesset” (Elitzur, 11)
“I prefer the Palestinians as Israeli Civilians rather than divide the Land” (Reuven Rivlin, 2011)
One state inc. Gaza
One state without Gaza
Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem
13
10
7
Unemployment rate (16+)Series1
One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem
23,71027,331
40,000Per Capita GDP ($)
One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza
Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem
287,781
286,014
280,984
GDP ($ Millions)
“Jordan is Palestine”:
– “The Palestinians in Yehuda ve-Shomron will have
to choose to be Israeli Inhabitants and Citizens of
the Palestinian-Jordanian State and Vote for the
Parliament in Amman” (Arieh Eldad, 2009)
Is Israel a Villa in the Jungle?Can Israel keep continue with the
current situation?Stagnation & Potential
deterioration
Hamas Challenge
The Sensitivity of the Temple Mount
West Bank - Individual Terrorism
International “Involvement”
According to the latest UN report:Foreign investments in Israel have fallen by
Since Operation Protective Edge, total overnight stays by tourists in Israel have fallen by
20146.4 billion
20138.1 billion
46%
25%
An agreement is necessary before:
• The existing political leadership is replaced
• Iran - the destructive power - achieves nuclear capability
• Hamas takes over the PLO• The international community begins to
impose boycotts and sanctions against Israel
• Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli democracy
• A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the world because of Israeli policies
תודה!
. .shaul@orsha co il
. .WWW SHAULARIELI COM
ARIELI SHAUL
“But here, too, we must tell the whole truth:In the heart of the Jewish homeland a large population of Palestinians now lives. We do not wish to rule them, to manage their lives, or to impose our flag and our culture on them.In my vision of peace, two free peoples live side by side in our small country, in neighborliness and mutual respect. Each has its own flag, anthem, and government. And neither threatens the security and existence of its neighbor.”
Bar Ilan Speech 2009