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Transcript of Share Khan Report Max India
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7/31/2019 Share Khan Report Max India
1/15
Visit us at www.sharekhan.com May 27, 2011
Index
Stock Update >> Max India
Stock Update >> Kewal Kiran Clothing
Stock Update >> Ratnamani Metals and Tubes
Viewpoint >> Tata Motors
For Private Circulation only
Sharekhan Ltd, Regd Add: 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway
Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. BSE Cash-INB011073351; F&O-
INF011073351; NSE INB/INF231073330; CD - INE231073330; MCX Stock Exchange: CD - INE261073330 DP: NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS INP000000662; Mutual Fund: ARN 20669. Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-
10080; (MCX/TCM/CORP/0425); NCDEX -00132; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142)
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Company details
Price chart
Shareholding pattern
Price performance
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute 3.2 16.3 9.7 -5.3
Relative 11.5 13.7 15.8 -15.2
to Sensex
Max India Emerging Star
Stock Update
Consolidated business turns profitable in Q4 Buy; CMP: Rs167
Price target: Rs234
Market cap: Rs3,882 cr
52 week high/low: Rs182/133
NSE volume: 3.0 lakh(No of shares)
BSE code: 500271
NSE code: MAX
Sharekhan code: MAX
Free float: 14.8 cr(No of shares)
Result highlights
During Q4FY2011, Max India reported a stand-alone loss of Rs13.5 crore but
was profitable on a consolidated basis led by the life insurance business. The
life insurance business showed healthy results for FY2011 with a total premium
growth of 20%, conservation ratio of 81% and profit of Rs194 crore as against a
loss of Rs21 crore in FY2010. The embedded value of the insurance business
grew by 18% year on year (YoY) to Rs3,216 crore.
Turns profitable on consolidated basis: Max India reported a profit of Rs130
crore in Q4FY2011 on a consolidated basis, a growth of 38% YoY. The profit was
led by a strong growth in the revenues and the companys sharp focus on cost
management. The total consolidated revenues for Q4FY2011 came in at Rs1,890
crore, up 5% YoY, led by a 22% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in the operating
revenues whereas the company has booked loss in its investment income.
Life insurancesteady growth continues: Max New York Life (MNYL)s
annualised premium equivalent (APE) during the quarter came in at Rs472 crore,
a growth of 13% YoY while the other players registered a decline of 31% YoY.
The strong APE growth was driven by a focus on the traditional products and a
distribution tie-up with Axis Bank. The company has posted a profit of Rs194
crore in FY2011 as compared to a loss of Rs24 crore in FY2011. The expenses/
premium ratio for the quarter dropped to 29% from 30% in the corresponding
period of the previous year.
Health care revenues up 21.8% YoY, EBITDA improves as well: Max Health
Care (MHC)s Q4FY2011 revenues were up 21.8% YoY to Rs179 crore. The EBITDA
margin increased to 11% against 1.8% in Q4FY2011. The company plans to add
1,000 beds in CY2012 in the states of Punjab, Uttaranchal etc.
Specialty filmsrevenues up 29.7% YoY: Max Specialty Products (MSP) reported
a 29.7% Y-o-Y increase in its revenues to Rs118 crore in Q4FY2011. The EBITDA
margin declined to 10% (from 14.2% in Q3FY2011). Profits from the segment
grew by 16.7% YoY to Rs7 crore.
Health insurance: Max Bupa, the health insurance business of Max India,
registered a gross written premium (GWP) of Rs26 crore in FY2011. The company
enrolled 46,000 lives in the first year of operations.
Maintain Buy with a target of Rs234: Max India is among the best managed
companies in the life insurance space which gets reflected by way of its balanced
Result table Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 % YoY FY2011 FY2010 % YoY
Operating revenue 1,941 1,592 22 6,668 5,574 20
Investment & Other income -51 201 -125 1,223 2,087 -41
Total revenue 1,890 1,793 5 7,891 7,661 3
EBIDTA 177 158 12 348 114 205
Profit/(Loss) before tax 130 94 38 32 -86 -
Promoter
37%
MF & FI
1%Foreign
30%
Public & others
32%
130135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
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product mix, high persistency ratio, higher average
case per agent etc. We remain convinced about the
long-term growth prospects of the life insurance
industry in spite of the regulatory concerns plaguing
insurance sales in the near term. The company is
already done with capital infusion in the life insurance
business while the treasury corpus of Rs540 crore andinflows from life insurance business will take care of
the funding requirements of the health insurance and
healthcare segments. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with our sum-of-the-
parts (SOTP) based target price of Rs234.
Life insurance business
APE growth better than industrys
In Q4FY2011 MNYLs APE came in at Rs472 crore, a growth
of 13% YoY, while the other players registered a steep
decline of 31% YoY. The strong APE growth was driven by
a focus on the traditional products and the distribution
tie-up with Axis Bank. The key highlight was that the
traditional policies contributed to 86% of the incremental
sales during the quarter.
Cost rationalisation to continue
Though the companys top line got affected by the
regulatory changes in the insurance sector, the cost
rationalisation aided the growth in profits. The companys
expenses/premium ratio for the quarter dropped to 29%
from 30% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
MNYL is taking steps to introduce several costrationalisation measures like multichannel distribution
network, productive agency force and other measures to
bring the expense ratio to ~18% levels.
Further, consolidation in agency force
The agency force as in March 2011 stood at 43,692 agents
down 40% YoYas MNYL continues to trim the unproductive
agents. With the huge expansion in its branch network in
recent times, the company intends to optimally utilise it
and also leverage on the over 1,000 branches of Axis Bank
to penetrate into the market.
NPBAP margins decline while conservation ratio re-
mains at higher levels
The recent regulatory changes governing unit-linked
insurance policies (ULIPs) have contributed to a decline
in the margins. Max India had NBAP margin (new business
achieved profits) in the range of 13-14% and expects to
maintain it with focus on affluent segments and traditional
policies. Further, the conservation ratio, which is amongst
the best in the industry, increased sequentially to 82%
(78% in Q2FY2011) due to a change in the product mix.
The management has guided to improve the conservation
ratio in the coming quarters.
Life insurance (MNYL) Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4 Q4 % FY11 FY10 %FY11 FY10 YoY YoY
First year premium 480 438 10 1,775 1,648 8Renewal premium 1,103 903 22 3,751 3,011 25
Single premium 99 46 115 286 202 42
Total 1,682 1,387 21 5,812 4,861 20
Individual APE 472 419 13 1,724 1,584 9
Conservation ratio (%) 82 82 81 83
Average case size 21,681 21,608 21,239 20,665
Case rate per 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7agent per month
Healthcare business
MHCs Q4FY2011 revenues grew by 21.8% YoY to Rs179
crore. The average revenue per occupied bed day for
Q4FY2011 came in at Rs22,868 crore, a growth of 4%
YoY.
The EBITDA margin, which had moderated recently on
being hit by the recent expansion carried out by the
company, improved to 11% in Q4FY2011 from 1.8% in
Q4FY2010.
The occupancy rates were flat at 67% in Q4FY2011 as
compared to 68% in Q4FY2010 and in Q3FY2011.
The company plans to add 1,000 beds in CY2011,
increasing the total capacity to 2,000 beds.
Healthcare (MHC) Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4 Q4 % FY11 FY10 %FY11 FY10 YoY YoY
Revenues 179.0 147.0 21.8 685.0 534.0 28.3
EBITDA 19.6 2.6 653.8 51.9 23.5 120.9
EBITDA margins (%) 11.0 1.8 511.1 7.6 4.4 72.7
Average operational 926 818 13.2 926.0 751.0 23.3
bed
Average occupancy 67.0 68.0 -1.5 68.0 73.0 -6.8
Average rev per 22,868 22,056 3.7 21,558 20,431 5.5
bed/day
Speciality products business
Max Speciality Products reported a 29.7% Y-o-Y increase
in its revenues to Rs118 crore in Q4FY2011.
The EBITDA margin declined 10% in the quarter.
Max India has added another 22,000 tonne per annum
(tpa) of BOPP line which commenced operations from
March 2011. The total capacity has now increased to
52,000tpa.
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Speciality films (MSF) Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4 Q4 % FY11 FY10 %FY11 FY10 YoY YoY
Revenues 118 91 29.7 440 336 31.0
EBITDA 11 12 -8.3 53 43 23.3
EBITDA margins (%) 10 13 -23.1 12 13 -7.7
PBT 7 6 16.7 36 20 80.0
Other businesses
Clinical research: During the quarter, the revenues
from the clinical research business came in at Rs8
crore, flat on a sequential basis and up 45% YoY. The
order book stood at Rs32 crore, up Rs13 crore during
the quarter.
Health insurance: Max Bupa, the health insurance
business of Max India, registered a gross written
premium (GWP) of Rs26 crore in the first financial year
of operation. As many as 46,000 lives were enrolled in
the first year of operation.
Maintain Buy with a target of Rs234
Max India is among the best managed companies in the
life insurance space which gets reflected by way of its
balanced product mix, high persistency ratio, higher
average case per agent etc. We remain convinced about
the long-term growth prospects of the life insurance
industry in spite of the regulatory concerns plaguinginsurance sales in the near term. The company is already
done with a capital infusion in the life insurance business
while the treasury corpus of Rs540 crore and inflows from
life insurance business will take care of the funding
requirements in the health insurance and healthcare
segments. We maintain Buy recommendation on the stock
with our SOTP based price target of Rs234.
SOTP valuation table
Business Method Stake Value/Share(%) (Rs)
Life insurance Appraisal 70 195
(10% holding co discount)
Healthcare EV/EBITDA 76 29
Specialty products Price/Sales 100 10
SOTP based price target 234
investors eye stock update
The author doesnt hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.
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Company details
Price chart
Shareholding pattern
Price performance
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute -5.2 13.5 -7.0 112.1
Relative 2.4 11.0 -1.8 89.8
to Sensex
Kewal Kiran Clothing Ugly Duckling
Stock Update
Price target revised to Rs674 Buy; CMP: Rs543
Price target: Rs674
Market cap: Rs669 cr
52 week high/low: Rs649/263
NSE volume: 1,901(No of shares)
BSE code: 532732
NSE code: KKCL
Sharekhan code: KKCL
Free float: 32 lakh(No of shares)
Result highlights
Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd (KKCL)s Q4FY2011 results were ahead of our
expectation on all counts - revenues, margin as well as earnings. The profit
after tax (PAT) came in at Rs11.1 crore as against our expectation of Rs7.5
crore (+32.1% on a year-on-year [Y-o-Y] basis), led by a strong operating leverage.
The operating margin expanded by 140 basis points on a Y-o-Y basis and came
in at 29.2% for the quarter.
The income from operations for the quarter came in at Rs55 crore (+18.6%
YoY), largely above our expectation of Rs51 crore. The value growth of 18% was
largely on account of the price hike undertaken by the company. The average
apparel realisation increased by 12% (per piece apparel realisation for Q4FY2011
was Rs703), while the volume growth remained muted at 2.2%. During the
quarter the accessories brand Addiction clocked a revenue of Rs2.5 crore
(selling 1.9 units at a average realisation of Rs128).
Despite pressure on the gross margin level due to escalating raw material prices,
the operating profit margin continued to surprise on the positive trajectory
(+140 basis points YoY and 210 basis points quarter on quarter [QoQ]), led by
leveraging benefits of selling and other administrative costs.
To incorporate strong Q4FY2011 results, and also the accessory brand Addiction
in the numbers, we have upgraded our earnings for FY2012 and FY2013 by 5.3%
and 9.1% respectively. Our revised earnings per share (EPS) estimate is of Rs44.7and Rs51.6 for FY2012 and FY2013 respectively. We believe that KKCL, with its
strong collection of brands is smartly positioned in one of the fastest growing
fashion apparel segments and we believe that the company will emerge as one
of the most successful apparel brand stories of India. In view of the pedigree of
its brands and its disciplined management which has a consistent track record
and financial acumen, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised
price target of Rs674 (~14x average FY2012 and FY2013 earnings).
Result table Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 % YoY FY2011
Total income from operations 55.0 46.4 18.6 236.6
Gross profit 33.7 29.8 13.1 146.8
Gross margin (%) 61.2 64.5 62.0
Personnel cost 6.2 5.3 17.5 25.4
Manufacturing & other operating expenses 3.9 3.1 25.8 19.6
Administrative selling & other expenses 7.5 8.7 -13.7 33.2
Operating profit 16.1 12.7 26.5 68.5
Operating profit margin (%) 29.2 27.5 29.0
PAT 11.1 8.4 32.1 46.2
PAT margin (%) 20.2 18.2 19.5
EPS (Rs) 9.0 6.8 32.1 37.5
250300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Institutions
4%
Promoters
73%
Foreign
13%
Public and
others
7%
Non-promoter
corporate
3%
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Topline growth of 18.6% YoY above our estimates
The income from operations for the quarter came in
at Rs55 crore (+18.6% YoY), which is above our
expectation of Rs51 crore. The value growth of 18.6%
was on account of a robust 13% growth in the
realisation although the volume growth was muted at
2.2%. The per piece realisation for the quarter camein at Rs703.
Brand wise, Killer continued its dominance with 52%
revenue contribution, followed by Integriti (24%), and
Lawman (22%). In line with our estimates and
understanding, Integriti- the value brand in its kitty,
continued to witness stupendous growth during the
quarter growing 27% on a YoY basis. Currently Integriti
is approximately a Rs60 crore per annum brand and is
moving fast towards becoming another power brand
like Killer.
Product wise, jeans continued to be strong constituting
57% of the revenue portfolio. The sale of jackets and
sweaters also increased considerably. Region wise the
highest share for the quarter came in from the eastern
region and the western region at 29% each.
Brand wise contribution sales Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 % YoY
Killer 28.3 24.6 15
Integriti 13.3 10.5 27
Page 3 Lawman 11.8 10.3 14Easies 1.3 1.1 18
Total 54.6 46.5 17%
MBO continues to dominate distribution set-up;
Factory outlet saw a stupendous growth
Of all the distribution channels employed; multi brand
outlet (MBO)s continue to dominate; for the quarter
around 58% of KKCLs sales came from them. Growth wise,
factory outlets saw a stupendous 64% YoY growth led by
the end of the season sale that was on during the quarter
between January 15 and February 20.
Format-wise sales break-up Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 % YoY
K-Lounge 15.3 13.3 15.1
MBO 31.8 25.5 24.7
large format stores 5.0 4.1 20.1
Factory outlets 2.7 1.7 64.5
Exports 0.9 1.7 -44.0
Robust expansion of retail stores
During the quarter, the retail store expansion was strong,
with KKCL adding 12 stores in the three month period, all
on the asset light franchisee model. We believe that
decent store addition coupled with a judicious mix of
other distribution formats augurs well for KKCL, which
again points out towards the strong financial acumen of
the management.
Operating levers pay off- leading to 140 bps margin
expansion
Despite an increase in the raw material cost that resulted
in gross margin contraction of 330 basis points, the
operating leverage and lower sales and administration
costs led to a margin expansion of 140 basis points YoY
and 210 basis points QoQ for the quarter. Sales and
administration expenses for the quarter stood at 13.7%
as against 17.8% for Q3FY2011 and 18.8% for the same
quarter last year. The margin for the quarter was robustat 29.2%, consequently the operating profit growth was
24.3%.
Other highlights of the quarter
Enhanced capacity to 4 million pieces
During the quarter the Vapi plants capacity enhancement
was completed with the company now having a total
capacity to manufacture 4 million pieces annually.
Lean working capital; Strong cash flows
Despite being an integrated fabric to retail play, the
outright sale policy of the company with no recourse to
the sold inventory continues to aid KKCL in maintaining a
lean working capital cycle. The working capital cycle for
FY2011 was 60 days. Further, the operating as well as
the free cash flow for the company continued to be strong.
For FY2011, the company generated an operating cash
flow of approximately Rs38 crore, with a free cash of
Rs32 crore (constituting 70% of the earnings for the year).
K-Lounge
27%
MBO
57%
Large format
stores
9%
Factory
outlets
5%
Exports
2%
Format-wise contribution to sales
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Strong performance outlook; inflation could be a
dampener
The demand outlook for discretionary spent which
includes apparels to an extent remains strong in the wake
of an increase in consumer confidence and the booming
economy. However higher raw material prices and general
inflationary trends could prove to be a roadblock in thegrowth momentum witnessed in FY2011. The fact that
KKCL has brands in the premium as well as value segment
would work well for the company in such a scenario. This
would help the company in maintaining the blended
margin at the current levels. We expect KKCLs margin
to sustain between 26-27%.
We continue to like KKCL in the wake of its strong brand
portfolio (Killer, Integriti, Lawman and Easies), robust
balance sheet (debt free status; Rs103 cash per share
constituting ~20% to the current stock price; strong returns
ratio- return on capital employed [RoCE] at 23.3%, and
return on equity [RoE] at 24.4%).
Earnings and target price revised upwards, maintain
Buy, target of Rs674
To incorporate strong Q4FY2011 results and also the
accessory brand Addiction in the numbers we have
upgraded our earnings for FY2012 and FY2013 by 5.3%
and 9.1% respectively. Our revised EPS is Rs44.7 and Rs51.6
respectively. We believe that KKCL with its strong
collection of brands is smartly positioned in one of the
fastest growing fashion apparel segments and we believe
that the company will emerge as one of the most
successful apparel brand stories of India. In view of the
pedigree of its brands and its disciplined management
which has a consistent track record and financial acumen,
we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revisedprice target of Rs674 (~14x average FY2012 & FY2013
earnings).
Revised estimates
Net profit FY2012E FY2013E
Old earnings 52.3 58.3
New earnings 55.1 63.6
Upgrade (%) 5.3 9.1
Valuation table
Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Net sales (Rs cr) 144.6 175.3 236.6 300.2 346.4
Net profit (Rs cr) 14.1 32.7 46.2 55.1 63.6
% YoY change -32.9 131.1 41.6 19.1 15.5
No of shares (cr) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
EPS (Rs) 11.5 26.5 37.5 44.7 51.6
P/E (x) 48.4 21.0 14.8 12.4 10.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.6 12.9 8.3 6.7 5.4
RoE (%) 9.7 20.0 24.4 25.6 25.7
RoCE (%) 8.8 22.1 31.5 33.2 33.5
The author doesnt hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.
investors eye stock update
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Company details
Price chart
Shareholding pattern
Price performance
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute -10.5 -6.5 1.1 2.0
Relative -3.2 -8.5 6.8 -8.7
to Sensex
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ugly Duckling
Stock Update
Dull performance at operating level Buy; CMP: Rs116
Price target: Rs148
Market cap: Rs538 cr
52 week high/low: Rs150/111
NSE volume: 20,260(No of shares)
BSE code: 520111
NSE code: RATNAMANI
Sharekhan code: RATNAMANI
Free float: 1.9 cr(No of shares)
Result highlights
Mixed sales performance: In Q4FY2011, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd
(Ratnamani) reported a net sales decline of 20% year on year (YoY) to Rs257
crore. This was primarily on account of volume being lower by 31% YoY in
carbon steel tubes and pipes. However the stainless steel pipes and the steel
segment were able to post a growth of 18%. On a sequential basis, net sales
jumped by 60% due to a significantly low volume base of Q3FY2011. The volume
grew by 170% quarter on quarter (QoQ), which is a result of the jump in the
order book at the end of Q3FY2011.
OPM improved YoY but primarily on stock adjustment: Despite a decline in
sales, the EBITDA reported a flat growth at Rs54 crore, as the EBITDA margin
expanded by 393 basis points YoY to 20.7% in Q4FY2011. Though on the face of
it, the EBITDA margin seemed to improve, but the major benefit has been
derived from the change in stock in trade. Hence, we read it as a flat
performance at the operating level. Sequentially, the EBITDA margin remained
flat. Therefore driven by higher sales, the EBITDA grew by 53% sequentially.
Net income grew, but on lower tax only: Below the EBITDA level, the interest
cost surged substantially; so the profit before tax (PBT) reported a 13% decline
to Rs38.7 crore in Q4FY2011. However, a lower tax (to factor in higher
provisioning taken earlier) and an extraordinary item pushed up the profit after
tax (PAT) by 15% to Rs28 crore. Sequentially, a higher (60%) sales growth, coupledwith a lower depreciation cost percolated into a profit after tax (PAT) growth
of 70%.
Result table Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 % YoY Q3FY11 % QoQ
Net sales 256.6 321.6 -20.2 161.0 59.4
Total expenditure 203.4 267.6 -24.0 128.0 58.9
Operating profit 53.2 54.0 -1.5 32.9 61.5
Other income 1.0 0.3 239.5 2.5 -58.4
EBIDTA 54.2 54.3 -0.2 35.4 53.2
Interest 5.2 0.2 - 3.2 62.5
Depreciation 10.4 9.3 11.0 10.2 1.8
PBT 38.7 44.8 -13.6 22.0 75.6
Tax 11.5 20.3 -43.5 5.4 113.1
PAT 27.2 24.5 11.1 16.6 63.4
Extraordinary items 1.1 0.0 - 0.0
Reported PAT 28.3 24.5 15.4 16.6 69.8
EPS 5.9 5.4 8.3 3.6 62.5
Margins
EBITDAM (%) 20.7 16.8 20.5
PBTM (%) 15.1 13.9 13.7
PATM (%) 10.6 7.6 10.3
Promoters
58%
Institutions
2%
Others
29%
Foreign
11%
110115
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125
130
135
140
145
150
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
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Order book at Rs797 crore, a significant
improvement YoY: At the end of FY2012, the order
book stood at Rs797 crore, 127% higher YoY and flat
on a sequential basis. Of the Rs797 crore order book,
carbon steel pipe orders form Rs475 crore and stainless
steel pipe orders make for the remaining Rs322 crore.
This is almost 1x its FY2011 net sales. Hence, we readthis as a strong order book position as the average
execution period for most of it is around six-nine
months. We feel that the company could achieve Rs800
crore of sales in the coming nine months. For the whole
year FY2012, the top line could touch Rs1,100 crore.
FY2011 annual performance declined at operation
level: In FY2011, operationally Ratnamani witnessed
a marginal decline as sales and EBITDA declined by 4-
5% YoY. The PBT slipped further (13% YoY) to Rs112
crore on a higher interest cost. However, a lower tax
compared to last year, led to a flat PAT of Rs82 crore.
Introduced FY2013 estimates: We have retained our
FY2012 sales estimate at Rs1,080 crore and PAT
estimate at Rs99 crore. We estimate a sales growth of
14.5% YoY in FY2013 to Rs1,237 crore, driven by a
volume growth in stainless steel (20%) and carbon pipes
(30%). We sense that the input cost pressure may
remain for some time; hence assume an EBITDA margin
of approximately 18.4% for FY2012 against 19.2% in
FY2011. So, the EBITDA is expected at Rs223 crore. The
PAT for FY2013 is expected at Rs114 crore, percolating
to an earning per share (EPS) of Rs24.5. This in turnindicates a two year earning compounded annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 17-18% over FY2011-13E.
Maintain Buy on better order book and attractive
valuation: We expect an earnings growth (2 year CAGR)
of 17-18% and sales growth (2 year CAGR) of 23% over
FY2011-13. We see the company sustaining its return
on equity (RoE) at approximately 20%. Moreover, we
are positive on an improved order book position YoY
and a likely reversal in investment cycle in the oil and
gas segment could result in an upsurge in the order
book further. Hence, at the current market price, thestock is attractively trading at a price/earnings (PE)
multiple of 5.6x on FY2012 earnings and 5x FY2013
earnings. Also, at the current market price, it offers a
healthy dividend yield of 2%. On an EV/EBITDA, it is
trading at 3.5x on FY2012E EBITDA and 2.7x FY2013E
EBITDA. We roll over our target multiple to FY2013E
earnings but retain our target price at Rs148 (based
on 6x FY2013E earnings) and maintain our Buy rating
on the stock.
Cost analysis (% of sales)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 Chg (bps)
Net raw material cost 64.6 76.2 -1158
Raw material consumed 78.0 68.6 947
Stock adjustment -13.4 7.7 -2105
Staff cost 5.4 4.4 95
Other expenses 8.8 2.6 626
Total cost (%) 79.3 83.2 -1595
Segmental performance
Stainless steel tubes and pipes
Stainless steel tubes and pipes contributed by 48% to the
total revenues. The revenue from this product category
grew by 19% YoY to Rs127 crore. The growth was primarily
driven by a 23% Y-o-Y growth in volume. Nevertheless,
the realisation remained 3.5% lower YoY.
Carbon steel pipesThe volume of this segment witnessed a decline of 32%
YoY. However, a 4.5% realisation improvement curtailed
the sales decline to 28% YoY at Rs143 crore.
Product-wise analysis
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 % YoY
Stainless steel tubes & pipes
Sales (Rs crore) 127 107 18.7
Volume (MT tonnes) 4403 3578 23.1
Realisation (Rs/tonne) 288257 298773 -3.5
Carbon steel tubes & pipesSales (Rs crore) 143 200 -28.4
Volume (MT tonnes) 34992 51067 -31.5
Realisation (Rs/tonne) 40829 39088 4.5
Order book position
As the company has executed a significant portion of the
order backlog in Q3FY2011, now at the end of Q4FY2011,
the backlog stands at Rs650 crore (carbon steel tubes
make for Rs375 crore of it). After the Q3FY2011 order
backlog execution and revenue booking in Q4FY2011,
there seem no fresh orders having been received by the
company during Q4FY2011. The current order book
position indicates a 20% decline sequentially but an 86%
rise on an annual basis. As per our discussion with the
management, we sensed that some products of carbon
steel tubes and pipes are having a shortage in the market
and the segment is likely to witness a healthy order book
inflow in future.
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Order book break-up Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4 Q4 % Q3 %FY11 FY10 YoY FY11 QoQ
Carbon steel tubes & pipes 375 115 226.1 400 -6.3
Stainless steel tubes & pipes 275 235 17.0 410 -32.9
Total 650 350 85.7 810 -19.8
Balance sheet analysis; higher inventory a reflective
of higher order book
At the end of FY2011, we observed that the company has
paid back Rs64 crore of debt from its books. We believe a
large part of this is paid by diluting the long term
investment worth Rs43 crore. Nevertheless, the remaining
amount would be paid by its internal accruals. The
inventory has gone up sharply (almost doubled) YoY, as
the company had to buy raw materials to execute the
higher order book. Thus the higher inventory is justified
as the average execution period of its orders is around
six months only.
Valuation and view
We have retained our FY2012 sales and earnings estimates
and introduce FY2013 estimates. We estimate sales of
Rs1,237 crore and PAT of Rs114 crore for FY2013. This
indicates a two year earning CAGR of 17-18% over FY2011-
13E. Also, we see the company sustaining its RoE at
approximately 20%. Moreover, we are positive on an
improved order book position YoY and a likely reversal in
investment cycle in the oil and gas segment could result
in an upsurge in the order book further. Hence, at the
current market price, the stock is attractively trading at
a PE multiple of 5.6x FY2012 earnings and 5x FY2013
earnings. Also, at the current market price it offers a
healthy dividend yield of 2%. On EV/EBITDA, it is tradingat 3.5x FY2012E EBITDA and 2.7x FY2013E EBITDA. We
roll over our target (PE) multiple to FY2013 earnings but
retain our target price at Rs148 (based on 6x FY2013
earnings) and maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Valuation table
Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Net sales (Rs cr) 955.2 852.0 812.2 1,080.6 1,237.1
Net profit (Rs cr) 95.9 81.4 82.1 99.1 113.8
Shares in issue (Cr) 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
EPS (Rs) 21.3 17.7 17.7 21.4 24.5PER (x) 5.5 6.6 6.6 5.5 4.8
Book value (Rs) 63.2 79.4 94.2 114.2 137.4
P/BV (x) 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9
EV/EBIDTA (x) 3.4 5.0 4.8 3.4 2.7
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5
Div yeild (%) 1.2 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
RoCE (%) 37.9 22.5 16.7 20.8 21.1
RoNW (%) 28.1 25.1 20.8 20.5 19.5
The author doesnt hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.
investors eye stock update
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investors eye viewpoint
Tata Motors
Viewpoint
Play on Tata Motors through DVRs CMP: Rs1,089
Tactical assessment of Tata Motors DVRs (differential
voting rights)
Tata Motors differential voting rights (DVRs) have
underperformed the main stock by 60% in the last two
years.
The current DVR discount against Tata Motors stock is
44% against the original 10% rights issue discount and
the 32% average two-year discount.
The promoter, Tata Sons, has sold 67% of their original
DVR holding to domestic and foreign institutions over
the last two years. The shares have been lapped up by
the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and foreign
institutional investors (FIIs) who now hold 71% of Tata
Motors DVRs.
Institutions are expected to have bought DVRs between
Rs350 to Rs900 in the span of two years.
Will the discount widen from here?
Currently, the promoters stake on an expanded equity
has reduced to 19% from 84% in two years. The scopefor further reduction from hereon seems limited as
this would risk the promoters control of the company.
At the current price of Rs605 a share, DVRs also fall
on the dividend yield radar. A higher pay-out in future
can limit the absolute fall of the DVRs price.
A lot of funds who would have entered at higher levels
can look to accumulate given the compelling valuation
of the DVRs.
How do we expect Tata Motors DVRs to behave?
Tata Motors DVRs have traded at a 32% average
discount to Tata Motors stock since their inception.
We believe the current discount of 44% would settle
at average levels.
Do we expect DVRs to rise or Tata Motors stock to fall?
We expect Tata Motors DVRs to outperform Tata
Motors stock, thereby narrowing the current discount
to the long-term average. We expect both the stocks
to rise over the next one year as the current fall in the
stocks price has factored in most of the negatives.
Valuation
Tata Motors currently trades at 7.2x our quick FY2012
earnings per share (EPS) estimate of Rs152 while the DVRs
trade at compelling valuation of under 4x. Our price target
of Rs740 a share of Tata Motors DVR is based on the long-
term average discount of 32% against the key stock. Our
price target implies a 22% upside from the current levels.
Tata Motors DVRs: stock description
What is a DVR?
DVRs A ordinary shares are a different class of equityshares with differential rights from ordinary shares. The
difference is with respect to voting and dividend, ie higher
dividend with lower voting right.
Key rights of DVR shareholders:
Subject to the applicable laws, A ordinary shareholders
will have the following rights:
Right to receive dividend, if declared
Right to attend general body meetings and class
meetings of all ordinary shareholders and exercisevoting powers, unless prohibited by law
Right to receive offers for rights share and be allotted
bonus shares
Right to receive surplus on liquidation as available to
ordinary shares and in the proportion of ordinary shares
to A ordinary shares
Right to transferability of A ordinary shares
A ordinary shares will not be convertible into
ordinary shares at any time
Tata Motors DVRs
Tata Motors issued DVRsA ordinary shares in November
2008 at a price of Rs305, at about a 10% discount to the
prevailing ordinary shares.
Entitlement ratio: The A ordinary shares were
issued on a rights basis to the existing ordinary
shareholders of the company in the ratio of one A
ordinary share for every six ordinary shares held.
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investors eye viewpoint
Dividend: The A ordinary shareholders will receive
dividend for any financial year at five percentage
points more than the aggregate rate of dividend
declared on the ordinary shares for that financial year,
ie the aggregate dividend paid on each A ordinary
share in any financial year will be Rs0.50 a share more
than the aggregate dividend paid on the ordinary share.
Tata Motors Q4FY2011 results: stand-alone perfor-
mance disappoints, consolidated reported results in line
Q4FY2011 stand-alone performance
The companys revenues at Rs14,600 crore grew by
19% year on year (YoY) on account of a volume growth
of 15% and a realisation increase of 3.8% YoY.
On the negative side, contribution margins declined
180 basis points QoQ to 28.2% on account of higher
raw material cost and unfavourable product mix.
Though the employee cost rationalised during the
quarter, higher other expenses restricted the operating
profit growth to 7.3% YoY. Consequently, the operating
profit margin (OPM) at 8.8% declined by 130 basis
points and 160 basis points YoY and quarter on quarter
(QoQ) respectively.
A much lower tax rate at 3% vs 22% in Q3FY2011 ledthe reported profit after tax (PAT) to grow by 40% QoQ
to Rs573 crore.
Result snapshot (stand-alone) Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 4QFY10 %YoY Q3FY11 %QoQ
Total income 14600.6 12230.3 19.4 11519.55 26.7
Total expenditure 13317.6 10997.0 21.1 10323.57 29.0
EBITDA 1283.0 1233.3 4.0 1195.98 7.3
Net Interest 247.9 278.6 -11.0 274.92 -9.8
Depreciation 421.2 372.0 13.2 364.78 15.5
PBT 644.9 2015.0 -68.0 561.69 14.8
Adjusted PAT 627.8 1792.4 -65.0 440.56 42.5
Reported PAT 573.4 597.7 -4.1 410.06 39.8
OPM (%) 8.8 10.1 10.4%
Stand-alone volume mix
Particulars Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11
CV/Total Vols (%) 54 54 60 54
PV/Total Vols (%) 40 38 32 39
Exports/Total Vols (%) 7 8 9 6
Q4FY2011 consolidated performance
Tata Motors total income grew by 23% YoY to Rs35,610
crore.
Its raw material cost as a percentage of sales increased
by 130 basis points QoQ to 65.3% whereas the other
expenses as a percentage of sales saw an increase of
90 basis points to 14.1%. Consequently, the OPM at
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
May-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
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Nov-09
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Apr-11
-20.0%
-10.0%
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40.0%
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70.0%
TATA DVR Tata Motors Underperformance %
0
200
400
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1400
1600
May-09
Ju
l-09
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-09
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-09
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Nov
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-10
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l-10
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-10
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-10
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-11
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-11
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Apr-11
-50%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
TA TA DV R Rs (LHS) Tata Motors Rs (LHS) Discount % (RHS)
Tata Motors DVR absolute discount vs Tata Motors stock
DVR underperformance chart
Tata Motors DVR shareholding trend
-10
0
10
2030
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
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Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Total Foreign Total Ins titutions Total Promoters
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investors eye viewpoint
13.5% declined by 170 basis points QoQ. The operating
profit at Rs4,820 crore was flat on a sequential basis.
On account of a lower tax rate of 10% vs 11.7% in
Q3FY2011 and an exchange gain to the tune of Rs177
crore, the reported PAT of Rs2,637 crore was in line
with the consensus estimate. However, the adjusted
PAT post-minority at Rs2,460 crore was lower than the
Streets expectation.
Result snapshot (consolidated) Rs (cr)
Particulars Q4FY11 Q4FY10 %YoY Q3FY11 %QoQ
Total income 35610.4 28901.8 23.2 31685.3 12.4
Total expenditure 30790.2 25541.7 20.5 26862.9 14.6
Operating profits 4820.2 3360.2 43.5 4822.4 0.0
Other income 15.6 1060.6 -98.5 9.9 57.8
Interest 453.2 551.4 -17.8 499.3 -9.2
Depreciation 1649.0 1121.5 47.0 1572.4 4.9
PBT 2733.6 2747.9 -0.5 2760.5 -1.0
Tax 288.4 343.7 -16.1 318.9 -9.6
Adj. PAT 2459.8 2425.3 1.4 2457.2 0.1
Extraordinary items 177.4 -206.5 -32.7
RPAT 2637.3 2218.8 18.9 2424.5 8.8
OPM (%) 13.5 11.6 15.2
JLR performance
The Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) business reported
revenues of 2,736 million and PAT of 317 million for
Q4FY2011.
The business margin for Q4FY2011 stood at 15.8% as
against 17.4% in Q3FY2011.
The net JLR debt as on March 31, 2011 at 233 million
vs 603 million as on March 31, 2010.
China has started to contribute significantly with
Chinas share in total wholesale volumes increasing
from 9% in FY2010 to 11% in FY2011.
The management expects Chinas volumes to increase
from about 20,000 units in FY2011 to about 40,000
units in FY2012. The management is also upbeat on
strong response from the other key markets like Russia
and Brazil.
Evoque is slated to be launched in September 2011
with a very competitive pricing in its segment.
JLR results snapshot
Particulars Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11
JLR volumes 59,201 55,134 63,155 64,083
% YoY 65 24 11 12
% QoQ 3.9 -6.9 14.5 1.5
Avg realisation 38,209 40,759 42,119 42,695
% YoY 22 27 22 19 % QoQ 6.4 6.7 3.3 1.4
Revenues ( 2,262 2,247 2,660 2,736
% YoY 101 58 36 34
% QoQ 10.4 -0.7 18.4 2.9
EBITDA 350 373 463 432
% YoY -1100 809 141 85
% QoQ 49.6 6.5 24.2 -6.6
PAT 222 229 275 317
%YoY NA NA 239.5 180.7
%QoQ 96.5 3.1 20.2 15.3
OPM (%) 15.5 16.6 17.4 15.8
Subsidiary performance
Particulars FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Revenues
Tata Daewoo CV (TDCV) 2865.0 2497.6 2714.6 2881.1
% change YoY 27.4 -12.8 8.7 6.1
Tata Technologies Ltd (TTL) 1100.3 1241.2 1070.4 1249.3
% change YoY 13.5 12.8 -13.8 16.7
HV Transmissions Ltd (HVTL) 190.9 141.8 209.8 294.4
% change YoY 9.8 -25.7 47.9 40.3
HV Axles Ltd (HVAL) 199.6 154.6 237.6 312.1
% change YoY 4.6 -22.5 53.7 31.3
TML Financial Serv (TMLFSL) 719.2 787.9 1132.0 1366.6% change YoY 457.2 9.6 43.7 20.7
Total 5075.0 4823.1 5364.4 6103.5
Net profits
Tata Daewoo CV (TDCV) 153.1 127.0 81.6 73.0
% change YoY 57.1 -17.1 -35.7 -10.5
Tata Technologies Ltd (TTL) 30.0 65.9 91.0 139.0
% change YoY 84.0 119.6 38.2 52.7
HV Transmissions Ltd (HVTL) 47.4 19.5 52.7 90.8
% change YoY 5.5 -59.0 171.2 72.2
HV Axles Ltd (HVAL) 63.4 27.8 64.3 94.2
% change YoY 9.5 -56.1 131.1 46.5
TML Financial servieces (TMLFSL) 44.8 -120.7 44.2 127.1% change YoY 250.0 -369.6 -136.6 187.8
TOTAL 446.0 134.1 345.3 606.0
PATM (%)
Tata Daewoo CV (TDCV) 5.3 5.1 3.0 2.5
Tata Technologies Ltd (TTL) 2.7 5.3 8.5 11.1
HV Transmissions Ltd (HVTL) 24.8 13.7 25.1 30.8
HV Axles Ltd (HVAL) 31.8 18.0 27.1 30.2
TML Financial servieces (TMLFSL) 6.2 -15.3 3.9 9.3
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investors eye viewpoint
Other highlights
Future products in pipeline for FY2012: Nano variants,
Vista refresh, Manza Limited Edition, new Safari, Aria
2WD.
In FY2011 capital expenditure (capex) stood at Rs8,521
crore (JLR 775 million + stand-alone Rs2,391 crore).For FY2012, the JLR business will incur a capex of
1.5 billion and the stand-alone entity will see a capex
of Rs3,000 crore.
The consolidated debt of the company stood at
Rs32,000 crore. The net automotive debt/equity stood
at 0.68 as on March 31, 2011.
The board of directors has recommended a dividend
of Rs20 per ordinary share and Rs20.50 per A ordinary
share each for FY2011.
Further, the board has also approved the stock split of
the company's ordinary and A ordinary shares in the
ratio 1:5, subject to the approval of the shareholders
at the annual general meeting.
Valuation
Tata Motors has reported adjusted FY2011 consolidated
EPS of Rs142. The consensus EPS for FY2012 is Rs152 a
share. The EPS growth would remain muted following a
moderate stand-alone volume growth for FY2012 and a
large capex programme. There are, however, possibilities
of upward revisions in H2FY2012 after the successfullaunch of Evoque, the low-priced compact sports utility
vehicle.
View
Overall, the stand-alone results were disappointing
whereas the consolidated adjusted results were marginally
lower than the Streets expectation. The stock may react
negatively to factor in the Q4 performance. The better
way to play Tata Motors would be through its DVRs as
these are currently trading at a 44% discount against an
average discount of 32% in last two years.
The author doesnt hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.
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