Shaping the Future: Energy Security in India Concept Note

India is currently the world’s fourth-largest energy consumer with a total primary energy demand of 621 Million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe), equal to the primary demand of Brazil, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia combined. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2035, the share of coal in India’s energy basket is likely to increase to over 47 percent from the current 42 percent. The share of oil is projected to increase from 23 percent to 26 percent while the share of natural gas is expected to increase to 8 percent from the current 6 percent. While the share of nuclear power is expected to increase to 3 percent from the current 1 percent the share of hydro power is expected to remain steady at 2 percent. New renewable sources such as wind and solar are expected to increase their contribution to 1 percent from less than 1 percent today. The largest change is expected in the share of non-commercial energy sources such as fire-wood and animal dung which is expected to fall to 13 percent from the current 26 percent. As for electricity generation, coal dominates both in terms of installed capacity and actual generation. Coal currently accounts for 54 percent of installed generation capacity followed by hydro at 21 percent, renewable (primarily wind) at 11 per cent, natural gas at about 9 percent, nuclear at about 3 percent and diesel at less than 1 percent. In terms of actual power generation coal leads with 69 percent, followed by hydro at 14 percent, natural gas at 12 percent, nuclear at 3 percent and other sources such as renewables and diesel at about 1 percent each. The most notable difference is for renewables which accounts for 11 percent of installed capacity while providing less than 1 percent of actual generation. Coal’s predominance is expected to continue for the next 30-35 years unless there is some technological break through in alternative fuels. In terms of energy access what statistics reveals is distressing. According to Census 2011, around 33 per cent out of over 246 million Indian households do not have access to electricity out of which over 90 percent of which are in rural areas. In total over 45 percent of rural households are not electrified. 66 percent of Indian households continue to use fire-wood or animal dung for cooking and in rural areas 86 percent of the households do not have access to any modern cooking fuels. This is despite the fact that the Indian government has put in place a policy of ‘Power to All by 2012. Taking the cue from the Integrated Energy Policy Report 2006 which redefined energy security from the perspective of the ‘Individual’ as well as that of the ‘Nation’ for the first time and highlighted the need for equitable access to energy within the nation, this conference aims to explore energy security both from a national and individual perspective. Apart from options for augmenting energy supplies at the macro level covering all forms of primary energy, experts from India and France will also go into issues such as improving efficiency in production, transmissions and delivery of energy and also address the issue of improving access to high quality energy services to all. The deliberations will be collated in the form of a policy document and widely circulated among policy makers.

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