Shale vs Conventional IRR F&D COMP
Transcript of Shale vs Conventional IRR F&D COMP
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The Barnett ShaleAnd Other Shale Dreams
Nissa Darbonne,
Executive Editor,
Oil and Gas Investor,
May 17, 2006
IHS Energy User Forum
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Economics of Some Barnett Shale Asset Acquisitions, 2003-06*
Date Buyer Seller Purchase Price($MM)
ProvedReserv
es
(Bcfe)
Production(MMcfe/d)
$/Mcfe $MMcfe/d % Gas
6-Apr Devon Energy
Corp.
Chief Oil &
Gas
$2,200 617 55 $3.57 $40,000 100%
5-Aug Undisclosed Undisclosed $250.00 40.4 14 $6.19 $17,857 100%
5-Mar Dune Energy
Inc.
Voyager
Partner
s Ltd.
$68.30 27 8.5 $2.53 $8,042 NA
5-Jan XTO Energy
Inc.
Antero
Resour
ces
$685.00 440 60 $1.56 $11,417 100%
4-Nov Chesapeake
Energy
Hallwood
Energy
$277.00 135 25 $2.05 $11,080 100%
4-Feb XTO Energy
Inc.
Undisclosed $200.00 154 25 $1.30 $7,999 99%
3-Feb Progress FuelsCorp. RepublicEnergy
et al.
$148.00 195 30.1 $0.76 $4,911 100%
Max $685.00 440 60 $6.19 $17,857 100%
Min $68.30 27 8.5 $0.76 $4,911 99%
* As of mid-May 2006.
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Publicly Held Barnett Players*
Company Barnett Production (MMcf/d)
Devon Energy Corp. (excluding Chief) 600
Devon Energy Corp. (including Chief) 655
XTO Energy Inc. 103
ConocoPhillips (Burlington Resources) 80
EnCana Corp. 70
EOG Resources Inc. 70
Chesapeake Energy Corp. 50
Others: Denbury Resources Inc., Quicksilver Resources Inc., Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc., Infinity Energy Resources Inc., Parallel
Petroleum Corp., Westside Energy Corp.
Source: Pickering Energy Partners Inc., Houston *As of mid-Oct 2005, except Devon figures, which are as of April 2006.
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Comparative Barnett Economics*
Core Vertical Tier 1 Horizontal Tier II Horizontal
Peak Monthly
Production
(Mcf/d)
650 1,520 900
Year 1 Decline 61% 53% 53%
EUR (MMcf) 733 2,356 1,395
Well Cost ($MM) $1.00 $2.00 $1.50
F&D Cost ($/Mcfe) $1.71 $1.06 $1.34
Rate of Return/Gas Price
@ $5 12% 73% 38%
@ $6 39% 113% 70%
@ $7 65% 153% 101%* For good wells. Source: Pickering Energy Partners Inc., Houston, mid-October 2005
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EOG Resources Inc. Barnett Shale Economic Model*
Johnson County Other Counties(Mix)
Direct Well Cost $1.8MM $1.1MM
Potential Locations 750 2,000
Net Reserves/Well 2.0 Bcf 0.8-1.4 Bcf
Net Bcf Potential 1.1-1.8 Tcf 1.6-2.8 Tcf
AFIT ROR % >100% >70%
Direct Finding Cost($/Mcfe)
$0.90 $0.79-$1.38
* Based on original 1,000-foot spacing; Oct. 26, 2005, 3-year strip
and $5 flat thereafter; $0.55/MMBtu differential from Henry Hub.Source: EOG Resources Inc.
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Conventional Play Mean Expected Case Parameters and IRRs
Conventional Plays Conventional Shelf Deep Shelf Open
Water
Platform Open Water Platform
F&D Cost ($Mcf) $3.17 $2.74 $2.95 $2.79
Reserves (Bcf/well 5.7 5.7 18 18
Initial Rate (MMcf/d) 4 4 15 15
Project IRR Sensitivity to Nymex @
$4.50/Mcf 6% 12% 9% 13%
$6.50 29% 40% 42% 48%
$8.50 55% 72% 80% 90%
Sources: Simmons & Co. International as per company reports, PetroDataSource, April 24, 2006
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Shale Play Mean Expected Case Parameters and IRRs
Shale Plays Barnett/FortWorth Basin
Fayetteville Woodford
F&D Cost ($Mcf) $1.20 $1.63 $1.78
Reserves (Bcf/well) 2.3 1.3 2.9
Initial Rate (MMcf/d) 2.5 1.4 2.5
Project IRR Sensitivity to Nymex @
$4.50/Mcf 14% 7% 6%
$6.50 31% 16% 15%
$8.50 55% 28% 26%Sources: Simmons & Co. International as per company reports, PetroDataSource, April 24, 2006
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The Barnett ShaleAnd Other Shale Dreams
Nissa Darbonne,
Executive Editor,
Oil and Gas Investor,
May 17, 2006
IHS Energy User Forum