SHALE GAS AND FRACKING: A CASE STUDY -...
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SHALE GAS AND FRACKING:
A CASE STUDY
Understanding a polemical technology using scientific, technological and financial data
M. Becue, V. Bouaroudj, J.M. Careil, A. Meunié, D. Virapin
IISDV, Nice, April 15th 2014
d.v. 25/03/2014
Outline
➔Context : the case of shale gas
➔First insights: global situation
➔Questioning: environmental issues
➔Conclusion and perspectives
15th of April 2014 Shale gas and fracking: a case study – IISDV Conference 2014 2
Shale gas: a brief introduction (1/2)
➔Unconventional source of natural gas found trapped within shale formations
➔Low permeability of shale formations: absence of significant wellbores, low concentration of gas
➔Hydraulic fracturing or fracking: reproduction of existing natural fractures, permitting to access commercial quantities of shale gas
› Horizontal drilling
› Use of water, sand and chemicals
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Shale gas: a brief introduction (2/2)
15th of April 2014 Shale gas and fracking: a case study – IISDV Conference 2014
Source: US Energy Information Administration
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Shale oil and gas reserves (1/3)
➔Technically recoverable resources: 752 billion cubic meters of gas, of which 28% from shale gas (ever-changing estimations)
➔More homogeneous spread of resources: geo-political issues at stake
➔North America concentrates most of the commercial production of shale gas (US: 1/3 of national gas production)
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Shale oil and gas reserves (2/3)
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Source: US Energy Information Administration
Shale oil and gas reserves (3/3)
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5
10
15
20
25
30
Eurasia Middle-East Pacific Asia Alena Africa Latin America OECD Europe
National share in the world gas resources National share in the world shale gas resources
15th of April 2014 Shale gas and fracking: a case study – IISDV Conference 2014
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Global distribution of world gas and shale gas resources
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Methodological steps
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Step 1 Input: IPC codes – Database: Orbit (Questel) –
Output: 9300+ Patents
Step 2 Input: Key-words – Database: Web of Sciences –
Output: 800+ Publications
Step 3 Input: Key-words – Database: Zephyr –
Output: 2500+ Financial deals
Step 4 Portfolio treatment, using Intellixir
Step 5 (1st level of analysis) Portfolio segmentation : identification of techniques of fracturing
Step 6 (2nd level of analysis) Portfolio segmentation : evidence of safety-driven technologies
DATA COLLECTION
DATA ANALYSIS
15th of April 2014 Shale gas and fracking: a case study – IISDV Conference 2014
Perimeter under study: Set of techniques developed for the purpose of shale gas extraction
Patents : E21B-043/26 OR C09K-008/6+ E21B-043/26 : Methods or apparatus for
obtaining oil, gas, water, soluble or meltable materials or a slurry of minerals from wells by forming crevices or fractures
C09K-008/6+ : Compositions for stimulating production by acting on the underground formation
-> 9304 families
Publications : shale gas AND frac*
-> 849 articles
Financial deals : “shale gas”
-> 2518 deals
Data Collection
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Dynamics of patent applications Number of patent families
180 156
187 218
284 315
372 392
372 378 364
468
373
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total Hydraulic fracturing Alternative fracturing
6 11 15 15 5 7 9 8 10
22 26
49
85
127
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Dynamics of scientific publications Number of articles
Source : Orbit, WoS, Zephyr (data), Intellixir (treatment)
Global statistics
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Patents – priority country
US : 740
RU: 666
CN : 1207
FR : 223
UK : 245
Publications – main author country
22% of patents have an international extension
15% of patents have a European extension
World : 2030
Europe : 1408
Financial deals – acquirer country
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Source : Orbit,WoS,Zephyr (data), Intellixir (treatment)
A mature technology ?
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Nu
mb
er
of
pat
en
t fa
mili
es
app
licat
ion
s
Number of applicants
1936
1971
1998
2007
1989
1990
2011
2009
2012
1993 1940
Case of fracturing
Source : Introduction to Patent Map Analysis, Japan Patent Office Asia-Pacific Industrial Property Center, JIII
Reference map of maturity
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Source : Orbit(data), Intellixir (treatment)
Forces in presence (1/2)
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Source : Orbit (data), Intellixir (treatment)
publication
patent
Forces in presence (2/2)
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MARATHON OIL SINOPEC CN
UNION OIL BP GB
SHELL NL CHINA NAT PETROLEUM CN
CONOCOPHILLIPS US
CHEVRON TEXACO US
EXXON MOBIL US
BAKER HUGUES US
SCHLUMBERGER US
HALLIBURTON US AE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Number of patent families
Mean age of portfolio
Major active applicants
Small active applicants
Major inactive applicants
Small inactive applicants
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Source : Orbit (data), Intellixir (treatment)
New entrants
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CHENGDU HONGTIAN TELEX ENGINEERING
CHINA UNIV OF MINING TECHNOLOGY
ALBERTA UNIV
UNIVs CHENGDU CN
ACAD SCI RU
UNIV OF TEXAS
DALIAN BITEOMICS
ANTON OILFIELD SERVICES
SOANE ENERGY
DONGYING SHENGSHI PETROLEUM
GENERAL ELECTRIC US
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
pa
ten
t fa
mil
ies
Years
New entrants since 2005: 40%
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Source : Orbit (data), Intellixir (treatment)
➔ Local environmental issues: non-acceptation
› Harmful fluids used: fear of water contamination
› Water intensive process: usage issues
› Emission of volatile gas: air pollution
› High density of wells and large-scale production required:
landscape deterioration
› Geologic formations disturbed: seismic risks
➔ Global environmental issues
› Impact on the global energetic mix
› Impact on climate change
15th of April 2014 Shale gas and fracking: a case study – IISDV Conference 2014
A highly polemical context: environmental issues
Are these environmental issues addressed in inventive activities, and if yes, in which way ?
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Identification of alternative techniques
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Number of patent families
Number of publications
Electrical fraturing 203 3
Propane-based fracturing 633 34
Carbon dioxide fracturing 155 66
Thermal fracturing 101 12
Hydraulic fracturing 7033 362
Non classified 1179 372
Total documents 9304 849
Share of alternative 12 % 13 %
Share of hydraulic 76% 43 %
A major share of patents relate to hydraulic fracturing specifically: main focus of inventive efforts
Lower share of publications related to hydraulic fracturing specifically. Publications are more generally related to transversal issues associated with fracturing.
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Share of documents relative to identified alternative techniques of fracturing
17
Source : Orbit (data), Intellixir (treatment), Gephi (mapping), Sigma.js (visualization)
Competitive positioning through the lens of patents (1/2)
Thermal: 101
CO2: 155
Electrical: 203
Hydraulic: 7033
Focus on alternative techniques only
Major focus: pure hydraulic fracturing (83% of applicants)
Propane-based: 633
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Nodes: number of patents owned Links: number of patent applications filed
Competitive positioning through the lens of patents (2/2)
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Source : Orbit (data), Intellixir (treatment)
Financial strategies
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Acquerors
Targets
Source : Zephyr (data), Intellixir (treatment)
Affiliations
Deal Types
Positioning through the lens of publications
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Title Affiliation Date
ExxonMobil’s Electrofrac™ Process for In Situ Oil Shale Conversion
ExxonMobil 2009
Title Affiliation Date
Study on carbon dioxide thermodynamic behaviour for the purpose of shale rock fracturing
Warsaw University
2013
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Source : WoS (data), Intellixir (treatment)
Evidence of environmental concerns ?
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Nb of Docs
Electrical fracturing 28
Propane-based fracturing 121
Carbon dioxide fracturing 30
Thermal fracturing 16
Hydraulic fracturing 1131
Non classified 101
Total documents 1427
Share of sub-query 14 %
Relative share of alternative 14 %
Relative share of hydraulic 79 %
Sub-query used
Patents : E21B-043/26 OR C09K-008/6+
Publications : shale gas AND frac*
AND
Damage OR environmental*
Most documents addressing environmental concerns are relative to hydraulic fracturing
15th of April 2014 Shale gas and fracking: a case study – IISDV Conference 2014
Source : Orbit,WoS (data), Intellixir (treatment)
Citations
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Source : Orbit (data), Intellixir (treatment), Gephi (mapping), Sigma.js (visualization)
Nodes: number of forward citations Links: number of times cited
➔ Technology, scientific and financial data: a relevant source of strategic information
➔ Fracturing is still an immature technology
➔ Implication of Chinese actors sharply increasing
➔ Environmental concerns are weakly being addressed and concern mainly hydraulic fracturing rather than alternative techniques not based on hydraulic tools
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Conclusion and perspectives (1/2)
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➔ Economic issues
› Diversification of sources of energy and greater independence
› Increased attractivity for gas intensive industries
› Local job creation
› Increased competitivity
› Real rentability under question
➔ Further work
› Detailed analysis on specific time periods
› Refined query relative to environment
› In-depth citation analyses
➔ Any questions or suggestions are more than welcome !
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Conclusion and perspectives (2/2)
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !