Shackman Psyc210 Module02 Impact 012815

Hi All! Please complete the anonymous ques5onnaire available from Alex We will use the data later in the semester for some in-class demos Return to Alex at the end of class

Nuts & Bolts Plan for Today Self-report data collec5on for future demos

Lecture on the impact of T&P Please have a low threshold for asking ques5ons!!

PSYC 210:

Is T&P Impac*ul? Do traits really ma6er?

AJ Shackman 29 January 2015

Conceptual Roadmap Historical perspec5ve: Is T&P a useful predictor of feelings,

thoughts, and acBons? Or are these largely driven by the situaBon?

Case studies: Illustrate impact

Drill down: Assess the consequences of individual dierences in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS 2011) Ways in which features of contemporary culture potenBally amplify the impact of T&P

Impact on health, wealth, and public safety

Summary: key take home points







Which really ma6ers? The cookies The tendency to violently eat cookies Or both?




Drill down: Assess the consequences of individual dierences in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS 2011) Discuss some ways in which features of contemporary culture can amplify the impact of C/SC

Examine impact of C/SC on health, wealth, and public safety


In his highly inuenBal 1968 book, Personality and Assessment, Walter Mischel argued that personality traits have limited uBlity in predicBng behavior

CorrelaBonal upper limit =~ .30 (~10% variance)

Is behavior largely determined by the situa5on?

See also Kenrick & Funder Amer Psychol 1988; Roberts et al. Amer Psychol 2007

Yes!? In his highly inuenBal 1968 book, Personality and Assessment, Walter Mischel argued that personality traits have limited uBlity in predicBng behavior


CorrelaBonal upper limit =~ .30 (only ~10% variance in behavior can be predicted by T&P)



Whadya mean variance accounted for ?

Variance Accounted For The amount of variaBon in one measure (e.g., weight) predicted by another (e.g., height) Equal to the correlaBon squared

So, for a correlaBon of .30

.30 x .30 = .09 = 9% of the variance is shared, explained or predicted

Variance Accounted For The amount of variaBon in one measure (e.g., weight) predicted by another (e.g., height) Equal to the correlaBon squared

So, for a correlaBon of .30

.30 x .30 = .09 = 9% of the variance is shared, explained or predicted

Examples of Correla5ons

Height

Weight

100% 64% 16% 0%



Therefore, other factors (i.e., situaBon!), must be

responsible for the vast amounts of variance that are unaccounted for





Therefore, other factors (i.e., situaBon!), must be

responsible for the vast amounts of variance that are unaccounted for

For the next several decades, research on T&P languished because of this apparently devastaBng criBque (The 10% Barrier)



Students What do you think? Is the situaDon really all powerful or are trait-like individual dierences in T&P predicDve and impac*ul?

T&P is impac*ul

Academic Performance


Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis

Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Studentswho are low on ConscienBousness [are]nearly twice as likely to fail a preOy whopping eect

Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)



Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Students low in ConscienBousness arenearly twice as likely to fail a preOy whopping eect


Marital Stability & Sa5sfac5on

Marital Stability & Sa5sfac5on

Based on a meta-analysis of 115 longitudinal studies incorporaBng ~45,000 couples

Correla5

on W

ith M

arita

l Stability (+ = Stable; - = Divorce)

Examined a whole slew of dierent factors to see which predicted future divorces Individual dierences in Neuro5cism are among the strongest predictors of divorce

Correla5

on W

ith M

arita


Examined a whole slew of dierent factors to see which predicted future divorces Individual dierences in Neuro5cism were among the strongest predictors of divorce Husbands and wives with higher levels of Neuro5cism were much more likely to divorce

Correla5

on W

ith M

arita


Examined a whole slew of dierent factors to see which predicted future divorces Individual dierences in Neuro5cism were among the strongest predictors of divorce Husbands and wives with higher levels of Neuro5cism were much more likely to divorce Neuro5cism out-predicts factors such as age at marriage, parental divorce, and pre-marital cohabita5on

Mental Health

Mental Health

Analysis of 20,692 Swedish twins

T&P measured at baseline; Clinical follow-up >25 years later

An increase of 1 SD in NeuroBcism scores was associated with a 31% greater risk of depression

Mental Health

Analysis of 20,692 Swedish twins

T&P measured at baseline; Clinical follow-up >25 years later

An increase of one unit (1 SD) in NeuroBcism was associated with a 31% greater risk of depression

Mental Health

Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

For comparison purposes, a Cohens d of 1.04 is equivalent to r = .46, or about 21% shared variance Can also be framed as a ~1 SD dierence PreMy whopping eects!

Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

For comparison purposes, a Cohens d of 1.04 is equivalent to r = .46, or about 21% shared variance Can also be framed as a ~1 SD or 1 standard unit dierence PreMy whopping eects!

Physical Illness (Morbidity)



Based on physician raBngs of illness from primary care paBents (n=449; 65-97 years old) once a year for 4 years

T&P strongly predicted illness

Disagreeable persons aged33% faster than Agreeable persons

At the nal follow-up, a person high in NeuroBcism and low in ConscienBousness and Agreeableness showed morbidity comparable to a peer with average personality but 10 years older



Based on physician raBngs of illness from primary care paBents, (n=449; 65-97 years old) once a year for 4 years



At the nal follow-up, a person high in NeuroBcism and low in ConscienBousness and Agreeableness showed morbidity comparable to a peer with average personality but 10 years older



Based on physician raBngs of illness from primary care paBents, (n=449; 65-97 years old) once a year for 4 years



Individuals high in NeuroBcism and low in ConscienBousness and Agreeableness showed illness levels comparable to a peer with average personality but 10 years older



Based on a 4 year study of 6,904 older adults

T&P at baseline strongly predicted the onset of new illnesses

A one unit (SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreased the odds of a stroke by 37%, high blood pressure by 27%, diabetes by 20%, and arthriBs by 23%

A one unit (SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a heart condiBon by 24%, lung disease by 29%, high blood pressure by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%


Based on a 4 year study of 6,904 older adults

T&P at baseline strongly predicted the onset of new illnesses

A one unit (1 SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreased the odds of a stroke by 37%, high blood pressure by 27%, diabetes by 20%, and arthriBs by 23%

A one unit (1 SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a heart condiBon by 24%, lung disease by 29%, high blood pressure by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%

Death (Longevity)

Psych Med 2008; see also Shipley et al PM 2007; Neeleman et al PM 2002; MarBn et al HP 2007; Roberts et al PPS 2007; Deary et al PS 2008; Jackson et al PS 2015; Turiano et al HP 2015

Death (Longevity)

>2,000 older residents of BalBmore

Assessed T&P at baseline and mortality 18 years later

A decrease of 1 unit (SD) in ConscienBousness was associated with a 27% greater risk of dying

An increase of 1 unit (SD) in NeuroBcism was associated with a 15% greater risk of dying

Psych Med 2008; see also Shipley et al PM 2007; Neeleman et al PM 2002; MarBn et al HP 2007; Roberts et al PPS 2007; Deary et al PS 2008; Jackson et al PS 2015; Turiano et al HP 2015

Death (Longevity)

Death (Longevity)

6,158 older residents of Chicago

At the 6 year follow up, 39.5% of the sample had died

Subjects with high NeuroBcism were 33% more likely to die than those with low NeuroBcism

Tremendous Economic Impact

NeuroBcism is associated with smoking, physical illness, and psychiatric disorders

This is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs; loss of producBvity and work absences) The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest scorers was about $1.4B AGP 2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Mroczek HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010


NeuroBcism, for example, is associated with smoking, substance use, physical illness, and psychiatric disorders

This is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs; loss of producBvity and work absences) The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest scorers was about $1.4B

AGP 2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Mroczek HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010


NeuroBcism, for example, is associated with smoking, substance use, physical illness, and psychiatric disorders As you can imagine, this is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs; loss of producBvity and work absences) The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest scorers was about $1.4B

AGP 2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Mroczek HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010


NeuroBcism, for example, is associated with smoking, substance use, physical illness, and psychiatric disorders

As you can imagine, this is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs; loss of producBvity and work absences) The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest scorers was ~$1.4B

AGP 2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Turiano HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010

Drill down into Mo6 11: ConscienDousness / Self-Control (C/SC)

Self Control (SC) Eorbul regula5on of behavior, emo5onal, & cogni5ve impulses to achieve long-term goals Extremely broad, relaBvely messy broad-band construct

Folk psychology (Ben Franklin) / Philosophy / Character: willpower, self-control, self-discipline

Developmental / Temperament: delay of graBcaBon

Psychoanaly5c: ego

Cogni5ve Neuroscience: execuBve control, hierarchical control models

Behavioral Economic Theory: opt in vs. opt out; intertemporal delay/discounBng

Personality: Conscien5ousness responsibility, industriousness, and orderliness.

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Self Control (SC) Eorbul regula5on of behavior, emo5onal, & cogni5ve impulses to achieve long-term goals Extremely broad, but relaBvely messy construct

Folk psychology (Ben Franklin) / Philosophy / Character: willpower, self-control, self-discipline

Developmental / Temperament: delay of graBcaBon

Psychoanaly5c: ego

Cogni5ve Neuroscience: execuBve control, hierarchical control models

Behavioral Economic Theory: opt in vs. opt out; intertemporal delay/discounBng

Personality: Conscien5ousness responsibility, industriousness, and orderliness.

Duckworth PNAS 2011

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans, who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on resolu5ons we know will improve our overall well-being. We human beings oRen want, and want to want, dierent things ... MoM et al. provide convincing evidence that some of us are beMer than others at doing what we want to want and that the capacity to govern ourselves eec5vely in the face of tempta5on has profound benets across every major domain of life func5oning.

Students: What are some intui5ve ways in which C/SC might be important, aside from academic performance and mortality?

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Are individual dierences in C/SC important?

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans, who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on resolu5ons we know will improve our overall well-being. We human beings oRen want, and want to want, dierent things ... MoM et al. provide convincing evidence that some of us are beMer than others at doing what we want to want and that the capacity to govern ourselves eec5vely in the face of tempta5on has profound benets across every major domain of life func5oning.

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans, who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on resolu5ons we know will improve our overall well-being. We human beings oRen want, and want to want, dierent things ...

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Maybe important?

IF TIME: hOp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX_oy9614HQ

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans, who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on resolu5ons we know will improve our overall well-being. We human beings oRen want, and want to want, dierent things ... MoM et al. provide convincing evidence that some of us are beMer than others at doing what we want to want and that the capacity to govern ourselves eec5vely in the face of tempta5on has profound benets across every major domain of life func5oning. Profound implica5ons for socie5es where tax payers are asked to fund public educa5on, public penal systems, and public health insurancewere all in it together, at least monetarily The public (you and me!) is now a signicant stakeholder because were on the hook

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans, who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on resolu5ons we know will improve our overall well-being. We human beings oRen want, and want to want, dierent things ...

Duckworth PNAS 2011; see also MoO et al Amer Sci 2013

Maybe important?

IF TIME: hOp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX_oy9614HQ

This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured: #1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old age

Modern society amplies T&Ps impact

This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured: #1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old age #2. Increased risk exposure: Modern history has also seen marked increases in food availability, sedentary occupaBons, access to harmful addicBve substances, ease of divorce, self-management of reBrement savings, and imprisonment of law-breakers


This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured: #1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old age #2. Increased risk exposure: Modern history has also seen marked increases in food availability, sedentary occupaBons, access to harmful addicBve substances, ease of divorce, self-management of reBrement savings, and imprisonment of law-breakers #3. Mood and anxiety disorders: As we have conquered many of the diseases of early life and middle age, mood and anxiety disorders are now a leading source of sickness, disability, and mortality in the developed and developing world


This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured: #1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old age #2. Increased risk exposure: Modern history has also seen marked increases in food availability, sedentary occupaBons, access to harmful addicBve substances, ease of divorce, self-management of reBrement savings, and imprisonment of law-breakers #3. Mood and anxiety disorders: As we have conquered many of the diseases of early life and middle age, mood and anxiety disorders are now a leading source of sickness, disability, and mortality in the developed and developing world Together, these historical shiis are enhancing the poten5al impact of individual dierences in C/SC and Neuro5cism in modern life


hOp://www.moOcaspi.com

hOp://www.moOcaspi.com

Avshalom Caspi & Temmi Mok (Duke/Kings College, London) - a.k.a. Shackmans undergraduate advisors

- Caspi was the instructor for my Personality class

Students What was the basic design and aim of the Mo6 et al study?

Dunedin Study

Large, representaBve birth cohort * The 1037 babies born in Dunedin, New Zealand between 1 April 1972 and 31 March 1973 at the Queen Mary Maternity Hospital. * 535/502 boys/girls; 1,013/24 singletons/twins; 1014 of the original cohort are sBll alive (~2% mortality @ 32 yrs) * Assessments: 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,18,21,26,32 yrs * Very low akri5on rate: Study Members come back to the Dunedin research unit for a one-day assessment from wherever in the world they are living - an impressive exercise considering more than 50 of them now live in the UK alone! Once in Dunedin, almost all aspects of their physical and mental health are examined - this includes cardiovascular, dental, respiratory, sexual and mental health, psychosocial well-being, and detailed interviews about relaBonships, behavior and family. * NZ: Centralized crime registry, etc, enriches the informaBon that can be gleaned * Generated more pubs than subs (>1,100)

Dunedin Study

Students: What is the scien5c value of a longitudinal sample, where subjects are repeatedly assessed over 5me? Put another way, why is a longitudinal study beOer than alternaBve study designs, such as collecBng data in adulthood and then geng retrospecBve measures of childhood T&P?

Students: What is the scien5c value of a longitudinal sample, where subjects are repeatedly assessed over 5me? Put another way, why is a longitudinal study beOer than alternaBve study designs, such as collecBng data in adulthood and then geng retrospecBve measures of childhood T&P? OK, so why isnt every study longitudinal?

Students: What is the scien5c value of a longitudinal sample, where subjects are repeatedly assessed over 5me? Put another way, why is a longitudinal study beOer than alternaBve study designs, such as collecBng data in adulthood and then geng retrospecBve measures of childhood T&P? OK, so why isnt every study longitudinal? Whats the key scien5c limita5on of a longitudinal study ?

Students How did Mo6 and colleagues quanDfy childhood self-control?

Age appropriate, mulB-occasion, mulB-informant composite Consistency across sengs, rater, assessment tech., and ages Not just self-report! Increases likelihood that T&P will be predicBve

MoO PNAS 2011

Does childhood self-control predict later health, wealth, and crime? Similarly at all points along the self-control gradient?

MoO PNAS 2011

Does childhood self-control predict later health, wealth, and crime? Similarly at all points along the self-control gradient?

MoO PNAS 2011

Yes! Suggests that interven5ons that achieve even small improvements could shii the en5re distribu5on of outcomes in a favorable direc5on. Further, associa5ons remained signicant aier controlling for SES and IQ.

What mediates the link connecDng childhood self-control to deleterious outcomes in midlife?

Assessed teen smoking, drop out, teen parenBng, enabling authors to test whether these youthful mistakes close doors of opportunity and ensnare vicBms in deleterious lifestyles (snowball/cascade)

MoO PNAS 2011

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes (smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood) Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth, and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-control levels who did not avoid these pialls

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes (smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood) Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth, and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-control levels who did not avoid these teen snares

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes (smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood) Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth, and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-control levels who did not avoid these teen snares StaBsBcally controlling for the snares reduced the eect of C/SC on health by 32%, substance dependence by 63%, SES by 35%, nancial struggles by 47%, and crime by 42%. BUT the inuence self-control remained staBsBcally signicant for nearly every outcome measure

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes (smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood) Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth, and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-control levels who did not avoid these teen snares StaBsBcally controlling for the snares reduced the eect of C/SC on health by 32%, substance dependence by 63%, SES by 35%, nancial struggles by 47%, and crime by 42%. BUT the inuence self-control remained staBsBcally signicant for nearly every outcome measure Suggests that intervenBons aimed at prevenBng teen snares would parBally but not completely prevent deleterious outcomes Perhaps beOer to intervene earlier and target the root cause (low C/SC) rather than treaBng the early-warning symptoms

X Key Take Home Points

Key Take Home Points 1. SituaBon/context is not king! Individual dierences in T&P

are robust predictors of a variety of pracBcally important outcomes, e.g., - academic performance (NB: above and beyond IQ) - marital stability (divorce) - health (mortality / longevity) and dependence on health care system - wealth and dependence on social services - public safety (incarceraBon, contact with criminal jusBce system)

Key Take Home Points 1. SituaBon/context is not king! Individual dierences in T&P

are robust predictors of a variety of pracBcally important outcomes, e.g., - academic performance (NB: above and beyond IQ) - marital stability (divorce) - health (morbidity and mortality) and dependence on health care

system - wealth and dependence on social services - public safety (incarceraBon, contact with criminal jusBce system)

Key Take Home Points 2. Three key features of our culture magnify the inuence of T&P

- Longevity - more Bme for cumulaBve consequences to build up - need to be more planful (e.g., reBrement) and disciplined

- Risk exposure and tempta5on: Lifestyle diseases - fast-food naBon - ready access to substances - easy to divorce

- Increased importance of psychiatric disorders

Key Take Home Points 3. The inuence of childhood C/SC on adult outcomes is parBally explained by teen snares (smoking, drop out, parenthood)

BUT, much of the associa5on is not explained by these adolescent symptoms, highligh5ng the importance of intervening early and targe5ng the root cause, low C/SC We will revisit this issue in the Lecture on Interven5ons

Kids with Low C/SC Ensnared as Teens Poor Adult Outcomes

Key Take Home Points 3. The inuence of childhood C/SC on adult outcomes is parBally explained by teen snares (smoking, drop out, parenthood)

BUT, much of the associa5on is not explained by these adolescent symptoms, highligh5ng the importance of intervening early and targe5ng the root cause, low C/SC We will revisit this issue in the lecture on Interven5ons

Kids with Low C/SC Ensnared as Teens Poor Adult Outcomes

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

This is just to provide some examples of what they will look like starDng next week Please do not complete this assignment

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons 1. The MoO PNAS study and other research has

sparked some remarkable partnerships between psychological scienBsts, public policy makers, and non-prot groups, such as the Sesame Street Workshop. A central goal of these partnerships is prevenBonearly intervenBons aimed at enhancing C/SC.

What do you think? What are some pros and cons of trying to modify childhood self-control? (e.g., What kinds of assump5ons and cost/benet analyses underlie such eorts? How might we think about this from the perspec5ve of sensi5vity, specicity, or eect sizes?)

hOps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PnbKL3wuH4

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons 1. The MoO PNAS study and other research has

sparked some remarkable partnerships between psychological scienBsts, public policy makers, and non-prot groups, such as the Sesame Street Workshop. A central goal of these partnerships is prevenBonearly intervenBons aimed at enhancing C/SC.

What do you think? What are some pros and cons of trying to modify childhood self-control? (e.g., What kinds of assump5ons and cost/benet analyses underlie such eorts? How might we think about this from the perspec5ve of sensi5vity, specicity, or eect sizes?)

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons 2. Constraint/ConscienBousness/Self-control (C/SC)

is just one dimension of T&P. As we will discuss next Bme, Extraversion/PosiBve EmoBonality (E/PE) and NeuroBcism/NegaBve EmoBonality are the other components of the Big 3 and each of these broad-band factors is comprised of narrower facets (e.g., dominance, fear, anger, sociality) that may resonate more closely with your interests.

What do you think? Briey discuss the merits of intervenBons for another dimension or facet of T&P. If you like, you can focus on clinical intervenBons, educaBonal intervenBons, or cogniBve remediaBon (computerized/game-based skill training).


3. Personality and privacy. In a recent high-prole report, invesBgators compare[d] the accuracy of human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220 volunteers who completed a 100-item personality quesBonnaire[They showed]that computer predicBons based on a generic digital footprint (Facebook Likes) are more accuratethan those made by the parBcipants Facebook friends[and] computer personality judgments [beOer predict important]life outcomes such as substance use, poliBcal atudes, and physical health [compared to friend reports][in some cases] they even outperform [self-report]Computers outpacing humans in personality judgment presents signicant opportuniBes and challenges in the areas of psychological assessment, [medicine], markeBng, and privacy. What do you think? What are the posiBve and negaBve implicaBons of automated personality assessments based on generic on-line informaBon (tracking cookies, likes, FB posts, etc.)? Assuming it works as adverBsed, what new vistas and opportuniBes would this aord?

PNAS 2015


3. Personality and privacy. In a recent high-prole report, invesBgators compare[d] the accuracy of human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220 volunteers who completed a 100-item personality quesBonnaire[They showed]that computer predicBons based on a generic digital footprint (Facebook Likes) are more accuratethan those made by the parBcipants Facebook friends[and] computer personality judgments [beOer predict important]life outcomes such as substance use, poliBcal atudes, and physical health [compared to friend reports][in some cases] they even outperform [self-report]Computers outpacing humans in personality judgment presents signicant opportuniBes and challenges in the areas of psychological assessment, [medicine], markeBng, and privacy. What do you think? What are the posiBve and negaBve implicaBons of automated personality assessments? Assuming it works as adverBsed, what new opportuniBes would this technology aord?

PNAS 2015

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons Length: 1 paragraph per quesBon (i.e., total of 2 separate paragraphs) for a total of ~0.5 1 page (12 pt font; single-spaced) Due: by 9:00am next Thursday Submit: Assignment tab in Canvas Grading: 1 (full credit), 12 (half-credit), 0 (no credit). At the end of the semester, your two lowest response grades will be dropped.

The End

Things to Consider Revising for Future Semesters

Denitely Add this next Bme


As in Study 1, our analyses showed that from adolescence to midlife, parBcipants with low self-control experienced 1.6 Bmes as many months of unemployment as those with high self-control. parBcipants in the low-self-control group were disproporBonately more likely to become unemployed

aer the onset of the recession.

used data from a 75-year longitudinal study (the Kelly/Connolly Longitudinal Study on Personality and Aging). In that study, 600 parBcipants were observed beginning in 1935 through 1938, when they were in their mid-20s, and conBnuing through 2013. Male parBcipants seen by their friends as more conscienBous and open lived longer, whereas friend-rated emoBonal stability and agreeableness were protecBve for women. Friends raBngs were beOer predictors of longevity than were self-reports of personality, in part because friends raBngs could be aggregated to provide a more reliable assessment. Male parBcipants seen by their friends as more conscienBous (Fig. 1) and open tended to live longer: A 1-SD increase in conscienBousness was associated with a 29% decrease in mortality risk


A sample (N = 6,904) of parBcipants from the Health and ReBrement Study, a longitudinal study of older adults, completed personality measures and reported on current health condiBons. Four years later, parBcipants were followed up to see if they developed a new disease.

A one unit (SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreases the odds of a stroke diagnosis by 37%, high blood pressure diagnosis by 27%, diabetes by 20%, and arthriBs by 23%

A one unit (SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a heart condiBon diagnosis by 24%, lung disease diagnosis by 29%, high blood pressure by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%


For Future GRAD seminars add the small eects are important slides back in but leave out for ugrad

class

Caveats

(Skip this if low on Dme)

Composite Childhood Self-Control: Tiny Eects

MoO PNAS 2011

Meyer et al Amer Psychol 2001

Tiny Eects Can Be PracDcally Important

Tiny Eects Can Be PracDcally Important and Cost EecDve

Dollars & Cents analysis Return on investment

Small eects are important if intervenBon is cheap (aspirin for heart disease), or if downstream consequences of inacBon are expensive (prison)

E.g., Ken Dodges Fast Track intervenBon

$40k annually per kid for a few years of childhood $47k for one year of incarceraBon, as well as loss of producBvity etc. Financial break point might be as small as a 3% reducBon in chronic crime

Kendler & gardner ajp 1014

Extra / Unused Slides

Increased C/SC

Decreased C/SC

Some subjects showed changes in self-control, enabling authors to test whether increases are associated with enhanced health, wealth, and public safety

Provides addiBonal evidence that intervenBons targeBng childhood C/SC are likely to be benecial

Understand at a more granular level the proximal mechanisms media5ng personality-outcome rela5onsall of these involve the brain as a key intermediary Some Pathways-- 1) Risk exposure T&P may alters exposure to risk (e.g., stress, dangerous acBviBes) via instrumental behaviors 2) Reac5vity & Regula5on T&P may shape reac5ons to others behavior specically and emo5onal perturba5on more generally e.g., escalate negaBve aect during conict E.g., dierences in emoBonal reacBvity or regulaBon Likely reect dierences in both emoBon and cogniBon (e.g., cogniBve control; Shackman

et al Nat Rev Neurosci 2011) 3) Shared genes or direct pathogenesis e.g., higher basal cor5sol, altered HPA ac5vity, altered immune func5on

4) Evoca5ve Eects T&P may evoke behaviors from others (spouse, parent)

Future Challenges

Roberts et al. Amer Psychol 2007; Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

Stability and IntervenDon

Wortman et al Psychol and Aging 2012

Aim 1 Test: Does childhood self-control predict later health, wealth, and crime similarly at all points along the self-control gradient?

E.g., Composite Physical Health Scale Metabolic abnormaliBes (including overweight), airow limitaBon, periodontal disease, STD, and C-reacBve protein (blood protein marker of inammaBon)

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 1 Impact: If yes, intervenBons that achieve even small improvements individuals could shi the enBre distribuBon of outcomes in a salutary direcBon

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 2 Test: Some Ss evinced increased self-control, enabling authors to test whether this is associated with beOer health, wealth, and public safety

Impact: CorrelaBve evidence that intervenBons would be benecial

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 3 Test: Assessed teen smoking, drop out, teen parenBng, enabling authors to test whether these youthful mistakes close doors of opportunity and ensnare vicBms in deleterious lifestyles (snowball/cascade)

Impact: CorrelaBve evidence that early intervenBons would be especially helpful

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 4 Assessed self-control @ 3 yrs, enabling authors to test whether EARLY dierences predict ADULT outcomes

Impact: CorrelaBve evidence suggesBng the need for early intervenBon

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 5 Controlling for dierences in IQ and SES, which are relaBvely cheap and easy to measure

Dunedin: Self-control associated with increased SES (R2 = 6%) and IQ (R2 = 19%)

Impact: Allow authors to reject the possibility that self-control is just a proxy for IQ/SES

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 6: Sibs Sub-Study Examine discordant self-control while controlling for

shared childhood environment

E.g., Sister 1 = Higher; Sister 2 = Lower But parents, family SES, etc. is approximately matched

Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study naBonally representaBve birth cohort of 2,232 BriBsh kids born in 1994-1995 (23).

Impact: Stronger evidence for the specicity of self-control eects

MoO PNAS 2011

Results

MoO PNAS 2011

Risk vs. Odds Ra5o

Smoking

Cancer

e.g., 20% of Smokers and 1% of Non-Smokers develop cancer Risk Ra5o = 0.20/0.01 = 20 Odds are (20/80 = 0.25 and 1/99 = .0101), so Odds Ra5o = .25/.0101 = 24.75

Lewis R. Goldberg (Oregon) - closely associated with the Big Five taxonomy of

personality (he coined the term "Big Five") - creator of the

InternaBonal Personality Item Pool (IPIP), a website that provides public-domain personality measures (open source personality assessment)

Researchers began to proposed some models for how T&P might inuence health outcomes 1) Direct pathogenesis or biological mechanisms that directly physically promote disease

E.g., natural killer cell acBvity or corBsol 2) Health-promoBng or health-damaging behaviors 3) ReacBons to illness

e.g., coping with illness, adherence to treatment

E.g., individuals with low conscienBousness/self-control (C/SC) may have trouble keeping appointments with health care professionals or taking their meds

This pathways may dier across facets of T&P (e.g., conscien5ousness vs. neuro5cism)

B&S: T&P-Outcome Models

Roberts et al. Amer Psychol 2007

hOps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PnbKL3wuH4

Alex intervenBon would be a good take-home quesBon; and this would be a fun way to start class

Death (Longevity)

Death (Longevity)

5,424 subjects from the BriBsh Health and Lifestyle Survey

Mortality at the 21 year assessment

An increase of 1 SD in NeuroBcism was associated with a 9% greater risk of dying (all causes) and a 12% increase in death from cardiovascular disease

Shackman Psyc210 Module02 Impact 012815

Documents

Transcript of Shackman Psyc210 Module02 Impact 012815