SGGW w Warszawie acro &...
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acro & Market Any questions? Want to join us? Find us on Facebook or gMail! Koło Naukowe „FINANSE i GOSPODARKA” SGGW w Warszawie – WNE ul. Nowoursynowska 166 02-787 www.knfinanseigospodarka.sggw.pl [email protected] | www.fb.com/finanseigospodarka weekly comment COUNSELLOR: Dr hab. Sylwester Kozak EDITORS: Małgorzata Głowacka • Karolina Jemielity WRITERS: Iwo Bochórz • Dawid Bródka • Monika Danilczuk • Bartosz Golnik • Paula Jerszewska • Anna Kaba • Radosław Pałkowski • Wioletta Sawicka •Krzysztof Śnieżko • Michał Tuszyński • Joanna Wojciechowska ENGLISH EDITION: Dawid Bródka • Michał Tuszyński GRAPHICS: Jolanta Szyperska EDITION II 2016/2017 No. 35 16 th – 20 th January 2017 Economy Ministry of Finance: Treasury debt higher by 1.4% in November. Currently, it amounts to PLN 923.339 billion. The Ministry says that the increase in debt was mainly influenced by deficits in the state budget and the budget of the European funds, foreign exchange losses and a decrease in funds for budget accounts. PLN 18.9 billion surplus in foreign trade in the period January-November. GUS data indicate a rebound in exports. Exports increased by 5.7% and imports by 4.4% y / y. Most of Polish exports go to Germany, Czech Republic and UK, and Poland imports the most from Germany, China and Russia. Growing exports of Polish meat. According to data of the Agricultural Market Agency value and volume of pork and poultry exports is increasing. The value of exports was estimated at EUR 1.7 billion. Poland maintained a positive balance of trade in beef and veal. Analysts do not expect changes in fuel prices in the next few days. Fuel cost more than a year ago. The prospects of PLN 5 zł per liter are moving away. January 19th unleaded petrol 95 costs approx. PLN 4.75 per liter. Statistical Office: Very good consumer sentiments. The current consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.5 points. percent. m / m and is now at a level of -1.2. This is the best result since the beginning of this study. Satisfactory retail sales in December. The data slightly exceeded the expectations of economists. In the analyzed month, retail sales increased by 6.4% in annual terms. In December, significant impact of Christmas is noticed. Financial institutions In 2017 the minimum amount of social insurance premiums for entrepreneurs will be more than PLN 1,172. This is an increase of 4.6% (y / y). The increase is a result of the assumed salary increase in the budget. The projected average monthly salary in 2017 is to reach PLN 4263. As a result, contributions to social insurance and the Labour Fund will increase by a total of PLN 42,71. Alior Bank raises charges. From March 27th services will become more expensive ATM withdrawals and fees contingent for selected accounts and cards are to be introduced. Cashback is to be lowered on Reasonable Account and NFC will be withdrawn. The increases will also affect the customers from merged BPH. mBank will pay its customers for the resignation of SMS codes. Promotion "Ten bucks in your pocket" is to entourage customers to test the mobile authorization. Anyone who benefit from it will get PLN 10 discount at the cinema. mBank says that the new solution is both convenient and safe. Planned changes in the system of credit intermediation. New rules provide ban for salaries payment to the intermediaries for the sale of mortgages. The cost of mediation is to be passed on to customers. The change could lead to the liquidation industry, hamper the ability to compare offers between banks and reduce the availability of credit. Financial markets PERN bought almost 5% of the shares of PKN Orlen. The transaction was concluded in August 2016 PLN 1.5 billion. According to official reports, the aim is to consolidate the domestic sector assets of fuel and energy and thereby ensure the country's energy security in the logistics segment, raw material and fuel. With this transaction, the Treasury will hold 40.4% of the votes at the General Meeting of PKN Orlen. PKN Orlen and jumped from PLN 60 to PLN 82 at the end of the trading session. WIG20 mWIG40 WINER OF THE WEEK ASSECOPOL +1.74 TRAKCJA +4.94 LOSER OF THE WEEK PKNORLEN -4.62 JSW -3.70 Alior Bank and PKO BP increase margins mortgages. Since January Alior Bank raised the margin on mortgage loans and mortgage loans by 0.3 percentage points. (Corresponding to 2.9 pp. And 4.4 pp.). PKO Polish Bank raised the margin on new mortgages (including "Apartment for the young") and mortgage loans by 0.15 percentage point PGNiG received the first production license in Pakistan. The concession was issued for 25 years with the possibility of extension. Licensed by the Pakistani licensing authority DGPC part of existing exploration license Kirthar including deposits Rehman and Rizq, which was granted to PGNiG in 2005. The shareholders of the two licenses - exploration and production - are PGNiG (70 %) And Pakistan Petroleum Limited (30 %). According to the company, after the completion of the work of managing both mining deposits may reach 2.5 million m3 per day. Czechs are planning to enter the Polish tracks. In 2013, the Czech Leo Express wanted to enter the Polish market, but does not live up to the demands of the EU then. It had to handle the passengers on the routes Warsaw - Poznan - Szczecin, Warsaw - Krakow and Warsaw - Katowice - Gliwice. Currently, by changing EU regulations, it plans to open a connection from Warsaw and Krakow to Prague. PLN stable against the euro and the USD. Published data from the Polish economy indicate a recovery in industry (retail sales and industrial production in December rose suitable for 6, 4% and by 2, 3% y / y). Mario Draghi held the dovish rhetoric, which resulted in a slight weakening of the euro. On the other hand, quotations of the dollar hurt the uncertainty surrounding the presidency of Donald Trump. Markets await the inaugural address. Brent ends week on a stable price of USD 55.45per barrel. The price was influenced by information on stocks that rose, apart the stocks in hub in Cushing, that fell. Copper falls to USD 5 762 per ton, because the Chinese went into the Christmas break associated with the beginning of the new lunar year. Gold rises to USD 1 210 per ounce due to the depreciation of the USD against major currencies.
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acro & Market
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Koło Naukowe „FINANSE i GOSPODARKA”
SGGW w Warszawie – WNE ul. Nowoursynowska 166
02-787 www.knfinanseigospodarka.sggw.pl
[email protected] | www.fb.com/finanseigospodarka
weekly comment COUNSELLOR: Dr hab. Sylwester Kozak EDITORS: Małgorzata Głowacka • Karolina Jemielity WRITERS: Iwo Bochórz • Dawid Bródka • Monika Danilczuk • Bartosz Golnik • Paula Jerszewska • Anna Kaba • Radosław Pałkowski • Wioletta Sawicka •Krzysztof Śnieżko • Michał Tuszyński • Joanna Wojciechowska ENGLISH EDITION: Dawid Bródka • Michał Tuszyński GRAPHICS: Jolanta Szyperska
EDITION II 2016/2017
No. 35 16th – 20th January 2017
Economy
Ministry of Finance: Treasury debt higher by 1.4% in November. Currently, it amounts to PLN 923.339 billion. The Ministry says that the increase in debt was mainly influenced by deficits in the state budget and the budget of the European funds, foreign exchange losses and a decrease in funds for budget accounts.
PLN 18.9 billion surplus in foreign trade in the period January-November. GUS data indicate a rebound in exports. Exports increased by 5.7% and imports by 4.4% y / y. Most of Polish exports go to Germany, Czech Republic and UK, and Poland imports the most from Germany, China and Russia.
Growing exports of Polish meat. According to data of the Agricultural Market Agency value and volume of pork and poultry exports is increasing. The value of exports was estimated at EUR 1.7 billion. Poland maintained a positive balance of trade in beef and veal.
Analysts do not expect changes in fuel prices in the next few days. Fuel cost more than a year ago. The prospects of PLN 5 zł per liter are moving away. January 19th unleaded petrol 95 costs approx. PLN 4.75 per liter.
Statistical Office: Very good consumer sentiments. The current consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.5 points. percent. m / m and is now at a level of -1.2. This is the best result since the beginning of this study.
Satisfactory retail sales in December. The data slightly exceeded the expectations of economists. In the analyzed month, retail sales increased by 6.4% in annual terms. In December, significant impact of Christmas is noticed.
Financial institutions
In 2017 the minimum amount of social insurance premiums for entrepreneurs will be more than PLN 1,172. This is an increase of 4.6% (y / y). The increase is a result of the assumed salary increase in the budget. The projected average monthly salary in 2017 is to reach PLN 4263. As a result, contributions to social insurance and the Labour Fund will increase by a total of PLN 42,71.
Alior Bank raises charges. From March 27th services will become more expensive ATM withdrawals and fees contingent for selected accounts and cards are to be introduced. Cashback is to be lowered on Reasonable Account and NFC will be withdrawn. The increases will also affect the customers from merged BPH.
mBank will pay its customers for the resignation of SMS codes. Promotion "Ten bucks in your pocket" is to entourage customers to test the mobile authorization. Anyone who benefit from it will get PLN 10 discount at the cinema. mBank says that the new solution is both convenient and safe.
Planned changes in the system of credit intermediation. New rules provide ban for salaries payment to the intermediaries for the sale of mortgages. The cost of mediation is to be passed on to customers. The change could lead to the liquidation industry, hamper the ability to compare offers between banks and reduce the availability of credit.
Financial markets
PERN bought almost 5% of the shares of PKN Orlen. The transaction was concluded in August 2016 PLN 1.5 billion. According to official reports, the aim is to consolidate the domestic sector assets of fuel and energy and thereby ensure the country's energy security in the logistics segment, raw material and fuel. With this transaction, the Treasury will hold 40.4% of the votes at the General Meeting of PKN Orlen. PKN Orlen and jumped from PLN 60 to PLN 82 at the end of the trading session. WIG20 mWIG40 WINER OF THE WEEK ASSECOPOL +1.74 TRAKCJA +4.94 LOSER OF THE WEEK PKNORLEN -4.62 JSW -3.70
Alior Bank and PKO BP increase margins mortgages. Since January Alior Bank raised the margin on mortgage loans and mortgage loans by 0.3 percentage points. (Corresponding to 2.9 pp. And 4.4 pp.). PKO Polish Bank raised the margin on new mortgages (including "Apartment for the young") and mortgage loans by 0.15 percentage point
PGNiG received the first production license in Pakistan. The concession was issued for 25 years with the possibility of extension. Licensed by the Pakistani licensing authority DGPC part of existing exploration license Kirthar including deposits Rehman and Rizq, which was granted to PGNiG in 2005. The shareholders of the two licenses - exploration and production - are PGNiG (70 %) And Pakistan Petroleum Limited (30 %). According to the company, after the completion of the work of managing both mining deposits may reach 2.5 million m3 per day.
Czechs are planning to enter the Polish tracks. In 2013, the Czech Leo Express wanted to enter the Polish market, but does not live up to the demands of the EU then. It had to handle the passengers on the routes Warsaw - Poznan - Szczecin, Warsaw - Krakow and Warsaw - Katowice - Gliwice. Currently, by changing EU regulations, it plans to open a connection from Warsaw and Krakow to Prague.
PLN stable against the euro and the USD. Published data from the Polish economy indicate a recovery in industry (retail sales and industrial production in December rose suitable for 6, 4% and by 2, 3% y / y). Mario Draghi held the dovish rhetoric, which resulted in a slight weakening of the euro. On the other hand, quotations of the dollar hurt the uncertainty surrounding the presidency of Donald Trump. Markets await the inaugural address.
Brent ends week on a stable price of USD 55.45per barrel. The price was influenced by information on stocks that rose, apart the stocks in hub in Cushing, that fell. Copper falls to USD 5 762 per ton, because the Chinese went into the Christmas break associated with the beginning of the new lunar year. Gold rises to USD 1 210 per ounce due to the depreciation of the USD against major currencies.
Company of the week
HARPER HYGIENICS SA is engaged in the production of hygienic skin cleansing. The company was founded in 1990 and since then continues to grow. Now it enjoys a brand awareness of 75% of the target group. Investing in modern production lines and employs over 500 employees. It has been awarded titles
such as Employer of the Year, and also won the competition Open Labour Market. Harper Hygienics has a range of more than 40 products and also manufactures private label for retailers. The company entered the Warsaw Stock Exchange in July 2010, and its current market value is over PLN 58 million.
Prepared meals market in Poland in 2016
According to Canadean, sales of prepared meals market in Poland in 2016 amounted to PLN 4 billion (an increase of 5.3% y/y).The market is on its uptrend and the total value of sales is expected to increase by approx. 5.5% by 2018. Ready meals (i.a. Dr Oetker, Pudliszki, Jeromino Martins) are the most popular and they account for 61.2% of total sales. The sector of pizza (i.a. Guseppe) and meal kits note a growing trend. Their forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) amount to 5.5% (2015-2019).
Statistical data
Macroeconomic indicators Date
GDP y/y 2.5% 3Q 2016
CPI -0.5% 2016.10
Unemployment rate 8.2% 2016.10
Average monthly salary 4 259 PLN 2016.10
Industrial production 1.9% 2016.11
NBP reference rate 1.5% 2016.02
FX exchange rates 1W ∆ %
EUR/PLN 4.37 0.46
USD/PLN 4.09 -0.97
CHF/PLN 4.08 0.49
EUR/USD 1.07 1.90
Rates (%) 1W ∆ bps
WIBOR 3M 1.73 0.00
EURIBOR 3M -0.33 -2.00
LIBOR CHF 3M -0.73 1.00
Stock markets (points) 1W ∆ %
WIG 53 573 1.62
WIG 20 2 006 0.40
DAX 11 630 0.27
FTSE 7 133 -1.07
DJI 19 837 -0.65
SP500 2 267 -0.40
14%
25% 61%
PREPARED MEALS MARKET, POLAND, 2016
Meal Kits Pizza Ready Meals
Source: Prepared Meals Market in Poland: Market Snapshot to 2019.
1 000
3 000
5 000
7 000
9 000
11 000
13 000
1 500
11 500
21 500
31 500
41 500
51 500
61 500
2013 2014 2015 2016
WIG (LHS) WIG20 (RHS)
DAX (RHS)
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
2,5
2,9
3,3
3,7
4,1
4,5
4,9
2012 2013 2014 2015
EUR/PLN (LHS)
USD/PLN (LHS)
EUR/USD (RHS)
PLN USD
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
-0,3
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,5
0,7
0,9
2013 2014 2015 2016
EUR3MFSR=X EURIBOR 3M (LHS)
USD3MFSR=X LIBOR 3M USD(LHS)
WIPLN3MD= WIBOR 3M (RHS)
%
