Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW.
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• Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW. • Showers with tops to 30kft near Guam heading towards us (about 100 nmi to the ESE). • The atmosphere is moister and more unstable than earlier this week (CAPE of 700 this AM, 1600 last night). • Isolated/Scattered showers and T-storms are likely in the next few days. • Progs differ substantially, with GFS developing the system aggressively, and other models dissipating it. • JTWC concludes no further development. Since the progs on the system south of us are uncertain, prog details are even less trustworthy than usual. Forecast Summary
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Forecast Summary. Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW. Showers with tops to 30kft near Guam heading towards us (about 100 nmi to the ESE). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW.
• Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW.
• Showers with tops to 30kft near Guam heading towards us (about 100 nmi to the ESE).
• The atmosphere is moister and more unstable than earlier this week (CAPE of 700 this AM, 1600 last night).
• Isolated/Scattered showers and T-storms are likely in the next few days.
• Progs differ substantially, with GFS developing the system aggressively, and other models dissipating it.
• JTWC concludes no further development. Since the progs on the system south of us are uncertain, prog details are even less trustworthy than usual.
Forecast Summary
Yesterday and This Mornings IR -
2-20 Thu, 5AMIncreased moisture and instability. Convection at 8N-12N 145E-155E
2-21 Fri, 5AM
Less Organized. More moisture > 10 N
Current picture: convection has become disorganized, but moisture and showers spreading northward Into our region.
11:30 AM, no deep organized convection nearby – replaced by region of instability
Noon radar pic
Showers with tops near 30 kft 100 km moving westward, may pass south of us.
Overnight at Andersen –Saturated but no precip. Thick cumulus to the
SE. Calm before the storm? Pressure holding
steady…
No precip overnight at PGUA. Storms developed in the vicinity and moved N to
the E and W of Guam.
‘current’ conditions: Last two soundings
Thu 10AM Fri 10AM
•Moist upper levels penetrating downward.•12Z 20 Feb sounding has CAPE of 1593, CPT -86 (187K)
Sat conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-21, 18UTC
(02-22 Sat, 04AM)
ENE10 knt
•Sfc cyclone SE of Guam at 9N, 145E. New shear line developing. Strong NE’ly flow to the W.
Sun conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-22, 18UTC
(02-23 Sun , 04AM)
ENE20 knt
•Shear line approaching from the W as indicated by NE-SW rain band. Surface cyclone staying SE of Guam (9N, 145E).
Mon conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-23, 18UTC
(02-24 Mon, 04AM)
ENE20 knt
•Surface cyclone moves W but stays SSE of Guam (9N, 145E).
Sat conditions (GFS):850 hPa RH & winds on 2014-02-21,
18UTC(02-22 Sat, 04AM)
•Moist unstable region over Guam
•Moist unstable region over Guam
Sun conditions (GFS):850 hPa RH & winds on 2014-02-22, 18UTC
(02-23 Sun , 04AM)
•Low level cyclone moves W but stays SSE of Guam.
Mon conditions (GFS):850 hPa RH & winds on 2014-02-23, 18UTC
(02-24 Mon, 04AM)
Sunday and Monday Clouds remaining E of Guam
2-20 Thu, 5AM
Conv outflow at 8N-12N 145E-155E but main Eq convection shifted back E
2-21 Fri, 5AM
2-23 Sun, 10AM
2-24 Mon, 10AM
Long Range
• Fate of cyclone is unknown.• Models project it to move S of Guam
toward the W.• ECMWF keeps the cyclone weak as it drifts
Wward• GFS develops it into a typhoon east of
Yap.
Both increase moisture over the Marianas and have scattered showers likely Sun and Mon. Moister than normal conditions through middle of next week.
GFS10
days
