Severe weather forecasting and early warning in the National

Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia Tesfaye Gissila

National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia

To be presented at the SWFDP-Eastern Africa Regional Subproject

Management Team (RSMT) meeting Arusha, 27-31 May 2013

Outline

1. Vision and Mission of the Agency.

2. The Forecasting process at NMA.

3. Operational Activities.

4. Severe weather forecasting and early warning

5. The status of the Verification work in the Agency

6. Out reach

7. Relations with the Media

8. New developments

9. The way forward

1. Vision and Mission of the Agency

Vision To become a world class service giving

Meteorological institution by the year 2021 and contribute to the social and economical development of Ethiopia

Mission Provide meteorological early warning and advisory

services for the country’s social and economical development and for the protection of life and property by collecting, processing, analyzing and interpreting meteorological and related data on climate variability and change, air pollution and weather conditions over the country.

2. The Forecasting Process

• Directorates involved in the Forecasting, early Warning and Advisory Process are the following:-

• Meteorological forecasting and Early Warning Directorate• Aeronautical meteorology Directorate• Development Meteorology Directorate in charge of agro-

meteorology, hydro-meteorology and applied climatology.• Moreover, there are 11 meteorological Branch directorates, who are

expected to issue short term forecast and earl warning about their locality.

Meteorological Forecast and Early Warning and Advisory Process

METEOROLOGICAL Forecast, Early Warning and Advisory

ProcessMeteorological Forecast and Early Warning Directorate

Development Meteorology services Directorate

NWP case team

Short to medium forecast and PWS case team

Long range and Seasonal forecast case team

Agro-met Services case team

Hydro met services case team

Bio-met(Applied climatology)Case Team

3. Operational activities• Model outputs

– Numerical model outputs in graphical from the different global centers (chiefly from NOAA/ENCEP and ECMWF)

– Numerical model products in different formats from the WRF model run at the NMA premise

– Numerical model products (COSMOS) in different formats from KMD

– Prognostic forecast products in he form of grids, charts, pictures etc.

– Through Internet, Puma/Messirs, SADIS

• Present and past weather for the assessment of the previous issued forecast and for the interpretation of the evolution of the weather

• Analysis of remote sensed data (Cloud type and movement, moisture, wind, temperature, troughs and ridges etc..

• Analysis of weather data from near real time reporting stations (Through SSB Radio, Telephone, internet and recently through GPRS from Autmatic telemetry systems)

QPF fro the WRF modelCity forecasts on rain condition, Maximum temperature and minimum temperature, Qualitative type of categorical area forecasts on rainfall

Forecast products

3.1 Observation and Telecommunication

• The major problem associated with the International telecommunication system is that the upper air sounding undertaken in Addis Ababa can not be reported through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). The major reason identified here was that of the in-compatibility between the telecommunication system of Kenya and Ethiopia (Digital vs analogue). But recently this problem seems to be solved.

Near real-time Operational Stations

Distribution of Meteorological Branch Offices

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Adama

Bahir Dar

Mekelle

Jijiga

RobeJimma

Assossa

Gambella Awassa

Kombolcha

Debbole

Service at BO

Data

Forecast

Advisory ●Semera

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There are 11 meteorological Branch directorates. Each Meteorological Branch directorate is expected to give short term forecasts and early warning in the region of its responsibility

Three-Day Forecast

Daily weather forecasts for selected Cities/Towns

Forecast issued at 15:00 LT Issue date: Thursday (10/05/2007)

Friday (11/05/2007) Saturday (12/05/2007) Sunday (13/05/2007)

Temperature (oC)

Temperature (oC)

Temperature (oC) City

Low High Weather

Low High Weather

Low High Weather

Adama/Nazareth 18 32 L/Rain 17 31 P/Cloudy 16 31 P/Cloudy

Addis Ababa 13 24 L/Rain 12 25 L/Rain 12 25 P/Cloudy

Awassa 16 28 L/Rain 15 29 L/Rain 15 29 Light

Rain

Semara 28 42 M/Sunny 27 41 Sunny 27 41 Sunny

Bahir Dar 13 28 Rainy 14 29 L/Rain 14 29 P/Cloudy

Dire Dawa 22 36 P/Cloudy 21 35 P/Cloudy 21 36 P/Cloudy

Harar 15 25 P/Cloudy 15 26 P/Cloudy 14 27 P/Cloudy

Assosa 16 28 Rainy 16 27 L/Rain 16 27 Light

Rain

Gambella 22 40 Rainy 23 40 Rainy 22 39 Rainy

Mekele 15 26 P/Cloudy 15 26 P/Cloudy 15 27 P/Cloudy

Jijiga 15 30 P/Cloudy 15 29 P/Cloudy 14 29 P/Cloudy

Lalibela 15 27 P/Cloudy 15 27 P/Cloudy 14 27 P/Cloudy

Gondar 14 29 L/Rain 15 30 L/Rain 15 29 P/Cloudy

Jinka 17 26 L/Rain 17 27

L/Rain 17 26 Light Rain

Arba Minch 15 29 L/Rain 17 30 Rainy 17 30 Rainy

Bale Robe 10 23 L/Rain 10 23 P/Cloudy 9 23 P/Cloudy

P/Cloudy ==> Partly Cloudy L/Rain ==> Light Rain M/Sunny ==> Mostly Sunny

4. Severe weather forecasting and early warning

• The operational threshold for severe weather regarding rainfall is daily rain fall of 30mm,where as the temperature threshold for the maximum temperature is 350C and for the minimum temperature, it is less than 50C(agro-meteorological threshold). There is no precise threshold for wind up to now. However, reported cases of dust-storms over the northeastern and the northwestern parts of the country, are indicating the importance of giving warning of these events.

• Most of the severe weather related with rainfall is associated with convective storms, where cloud top temperature and further information on the direction of the movement of the stormy clouds is used to give early warning through mass

media, with a lead time of 3 to 6 hours. • More-over, RSMC-Nairobi Guidance Forecast is also used to get more lead

time, for the early warning of extreme weather events. The problem is that the forecasted severe weather may miss the area actually affected as can be

inferred from the. (21st May 2012 Case Study for Gode zone (Somali region) flood due to heavy rainfall)

More-over, RSMC-Nairobi Guidance Forecast is also used to get more lead time, for the early warning of extreme weather events. The problem is that the forecasted severe weather may miss the area actually affected as can be inferred from the 21st May 2012 Case Study report for Gode zone (Somali region) flood due to heavy rainfall

The Event :- On 21st May 2012, a severe weather event occurred in the South-

eastern part of Ethiopia at place of Gode. The event was in the form of heavy precipitation. the rainfall amount of measurement was 50.1 mm.

The flash flooding result in loss of house, property and crop yield . More than 702 households were affected by flash flooding on 21 May

2012 in Gode zone (Somali region). The flooding caused significant damage, with numerous livestock deaths and damage to planted crops

and stored food reported in the affected areas.

Verification of day 1(Mon 21st )guidance forecast issued against the actual observed on 21st May 2012.

Relationship between the model forecast and local observed weather.

Satellite Imagery on 21st May 2012

The satellite picture indicates dense patches of cloud over the southeastern Ethiopia (affected areas)

Conclusion:-When the severe weather guidance forecast from RSMC Nairobi is used in combination with other remote sensing and numerical products, it can increase the lead time for the early waning, however, identifying the exact place will still be a challenge.

5.The status of the Verification work in the Agency

The importance of Verification work as greatly increased due to two major reasons.

To undertake calibration of NWP model products to the local condition. Here the major task is to undertake verification work for the numerical forecasting products from the Global centers.

To assess the skill of the Agency’s forecast, since customers usually enquire about the skill of our forecast products.

5.1 The Verification Process

• Some of the verification works done in the Agency include the following:-

• Verification work done for short term forecast on the WRF model run in the Agency, based on the model outputs and the observed values, in 2008.Verification.ppt

• Verification works undertaken on the assessment of the skill of the seasonal forecast issued by the Agency.

• Current work undertaken regarding verification on city forecasts

• Due to the representativeness error, the model sharpness is relatively poor over eastern half of the country.

• The models is missing the observed rainfall over

stations located in complex terrain

• The model predicts the dry event almost perfectly

over areas which are not receiving seasonal rainfall

• The model performance is generally high for the

first 24 hours

• The model is able to capture the natural variability of the rainfall

• The model performance is very high over western,

north-western and central parts of the country with

accuracy greater than 80%

• Generally, the model over-forecast the rainfall event

• The model performance is relatively poor over north

eastern, eastern and southern parts of the country.

5.2 Some of the findings

• The model is able to capture the natural variability of the rainfall

• The model performance is very high over western,

north-western and central parts of the country with

accuracy greater than 80%

• Generally, the model over-forecast the rainfall event

• The model performance is relatively poor over north

eastern, eastern and southern parts of the country.

…….Some of the findings

6. Out reach

• Dissemination techniques

• Radio, television• Leased line (RMC)• Printing media• Post• Fax, telephone• Website, e-mail• Workshop, briefing,

discussion

Users

General public

Intl community

Governmental & NGO’s

Policy makers

Aviation

Aid institutes

Media institutes

Disaster prevention orgs’

SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORIES

ON FOR

Prime Minister Office

D/Prime Minister OfficeMinistry of Agriculture , Ministry of Water and

Energy, Ministry of Federal Affairs, Ministry of

Defense, Health,

DRMFSS and EPPC

Regional States

Dam Administrations

Mass Media

Water dams operations

Lakes

Crop mnitoring

Drought Prone Areas

Flood prevention

7. Relations with the Media

• There is airtime to broadcast weather information two times daily through radio and once by ETV and OTV.

• During severe weather warning, we use our schedule airtime and also inform the media as we have warning and to give us extra airtime.

• If the need arises, Press releases are also used to put more emphasis on the warning, especially regarding un seasonal rainfall during the harvest season and cases of flash floods.

• There is a place on our web site on warnings of extreme weather events.

7.1 Consultations with the Media

• It has become a regular practice for media people to be represented in most of the consultative workshops organized by the Agency with stakeholders and customers.

• But recently it has be found important or organizing two major consultative workshops, where the invitees were media people.

7.2 Media Workshops

• Two Media workshops have been undertaken in Mach 2013, the first eing organized by the by the Ethiopian Meteorological Society and the second undertaken by the National Meteorological Agency through he support of ICPAC.

• The major objective of the two media workshops was second was undertaken by the National Meteorological Agency

7.3 Some of the outcomes of the two Media

workshops • Recommendations for the establishment of Users and

media forums and the preparation of a weather manual/handbook/guide to be used by producers and the Media including users of weather forecast in Ethiopia. Some of the constraints that need to be addressed include:-

• The meteorological information provided may not be presented in a friendly and usable format

• The terminology and language used in the provision of meteorological information may not be clear and not fully understood by the user

• Users of the information may make their own interpretation which may lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. Moreover, the importance of various types of educational and awareness raising programs have been stressed here.

8. New Developments

• The National Meteorological Agency is on the process of the procurement of a computing facility through the World Bank supported Flood early warning project of the Tana Beles Project. This computing facility is expected to improve the capacity of the Agency in NWP. Short term training on the COSMOS model has also been undertaken for two meteorologists in Germany.

..New Developments

• The Agency has also started procurement process for an upper air observation station, automatic weather station telemetry systems and a meteorological radar through different capacity building projects. These new activities can be very important for solving the problem data gaps in the early warning of extreme weather events.

• There has been a marked increase of projects dealing with community targeted agro-meteorological service in the country.

These include the Rockfeller agro-meteorology project supported by the WMO, Climate change adaptation pilot project over seven locations supported by the UNDP, and recently over the northern parts of the country in Tigray, with the support of Ireland and the WMO. These developments have made more important the improvement of forecast skills for the agricultural sector.

9. The Way Forward

• It is expected that with the newly acquisition of the computing facility, the NWP case team in the NMA will develop into a centre, so that it can contribute more to the strengthening of forecasting and early warning in the sub region.

Thank You