Several examples on the preparation of SUAs commodities

James Geehan,Statistician, FAO Rome

Example 1 Wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. Area, production, imports and exports are official data. There is no stock change.

Example 1 Wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. Area, production, imports and exports are official data. There is no stock change.2. Yield is calculated by dividing production by area:

Yield (Kg/Ha) = Production / Area = 4,200,000 / 1,645,000 * 1000 = 2,533 Kg/Ha

Example 1 Wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. Area, production, imports and exports are official data. There is no stock change.2. Yield is calculated by dividing production by area.3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of information available from the Ministry of Agriculture.

Example 1 Wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. Area, production, imports and exports are official data. There is no stock change.2. Yield is calculated by dividing production by area.3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of information available from the Ministry of Agriculture.4. The quantity of wheat used for seeding has been calculated by multiplying the estimated seeding rate with the area harvested in the subsequent year. The seeding rate is known to be around 150Kg/Ha:

Area harvested in year t+1 = 1,750,000 HaSeeding rate = 150 Kg/Ha

Seeding quantity (Mt) = (1,750,000 * 150) / 1000 = 262,500 Mt

Example 1 Wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. Area, production, imports and exports are official data. There is no stock change.2. Yield is calculated by dividing production by area.3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of information available from the Ministry of Agriculture.4. The quantity of wheat used for seeding has been calculated by multiplying the estimated seeding rate with the area harvested in the subsequent year. The seeding rate is known to be around 150Kg/Ha.6. Waste has been estimated by industry experts to be around 5%:

Waste = Supply (Production + Imports + Stock change) * 0.05 = (4,200,000 + 50,000) * 0.05 = 212,500 Mt

Example 1 Wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. Area, production, imports and exports are official data. There is no stock change.2. Yield is calculated by dividing production by area.3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of information available from the Ministry of Agriculture.4. The quantity of wheat used for seeding has been calculated by multiplying the estimated seeding rate with the area harvested in the subsequent year. The seeding rate is known to be around 150Kg/Ha.5. Waste has been estimated by industry experts to be around 5%.6. There is no information as to the direct food use of wheat or other use. The SUA is completed by allocating the balance of the account to processing:

Residual balance (Processing) = (Production + Imports + Stock Change) – (Exports + Feed + Seed + Waste + Food + Other use)

Example 2 Flour of wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1. The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the input for the production of Flour of Wheat.

Wheat

Flour of Wheat

Example 2 Flour of wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1.The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the input for the production of Flour of Wheat.2.The production is estimated by applying an extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of 80% as reported by industry agencies.

Flour of Wheat

Example 2 Flour of wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1.The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the input for the production of Flour of Wheat.2.The production is estimated by applying an extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of 80% as reported by industry agencies.3.Import and export data are reported officially and entered into the SUA.

Flour of Wheat

Example 2 Flour of wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1.The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the input for the production of Flour of Wheat.2.The production is estimated by applying an extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of 80% as reported by industry agencies.3.Import and export data are reported officially and entered into the SUA.4.Waste is estimated at 3% by industry experts.

Flour of Wheat

Example 2 Flour of wheat: steps to completing the SUA account1.The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the input for the production of Flour of Wheat.2.The production is estimated by applying an extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of 80% as reported by industry agencies.3.Import and export data are reported officially and entered into the SUA.4.Waste is estimated at 3% by industry experts.5.There is no information on processing, stock change or other use. Food is left as the residual balancing element.

Flour of Wheat

Example 3 Cow Milk: steps to completing the SUA account1.The SUA for Cow Milk has already been completed. We know that there are two derived products: Cream, and Butter.

Cow Milk

Cream

Butter

Example 3 Cow Milk: steps to completing the SUA account1.The SUA for Cow Milk has already been completed. We know that there are two derived products: Cream, and Butter.2.Cream production and extraction rate are known, so the Input can be calculated. Waste is estimated at 2%. The residual balance is sent to food.

Cow Milk

Cream

Butter

Example 3 Cow Milk: steps to completing the SUA account1.The SUA for Cow Milk has already been completed. We know that there are two derived products: Cream, and Butter.2.Cream production and extraction rate are known, so the Input can be calculated. Waste is estimated at 2%. The residual balance is sent to food.3.The remaining processing can be assigned as input to Butter. Production can then be calculated, and waste is the residual balancing element.

Cow Milk

Cream

Butter

Common problems in constructing SUAs

1.1.Inconsistencies between data sourcesInconsistencies between data sources, particularly between , particularly between official and non-official sources.official and non-official sources.

2.2.Unrealistic increases / decreases in food Unrealistic increases / decreases in food and calorie/fat/protein and calorie/fat/protein per caput intake.per caput intake.

3.3.Statistical discrepancies Statistical discrepancies – (positive or negative) imbalances in – (positive or negative) imbalances in the Supply and Utilization elements. Generally due to either the Supply and Utilization elements. Generally due to either missing data or inconsistencies in the data input.missing data or inconsistencies in the data input.

4.4.Lack of data or information to be able to accurately estimate Lack of data or information to be able to accurately estimate SUA elements for individual commodities.SUA elements for individual commodities.

Problem 1: Inconsistencies in the data sources• Yield of Barley is too high, but is derived from area and production.

• Production is taken from official data; area harvested from non-official data.

• The extraction of rate (yield) of Barley is also known at 8,550 hg/Mt.

Possible solution?• Reject the non-official figure for area harvested. The production is official and the yield rate is known, so the area harvested can be estimated.

• Barley yield can then be adjusted automatically to more realistic levels.

Recall that:

Yield = Production / Area Harvested

If rate of Yield is known, then :

Area Harvested = Production / Yield

Possible solution?• Modify the official Trade Data – although this is avoided whenever possible.

• Assign the export deficit to ‘Other Uses’ to match the published level of exports.

• Food will automatically be reduced as it is the balancing element.

Problem 2: Unrealistic increases/decreases in food• There appears to be an inconsistency in the official export data for Tomatoes, and the level of food available for consumption.

• Food is the balancing element in the commodity. Unless the level of food is reduced, food consumption will be too high and calorie intake over-estimated for Tomatoes.

Possible solutions?• The problem may be related to the data (e.g., imports for re-export may only be counted in the export field. Or an export quantity may have been incorrectly assigned to the wrong commodity).

• The export or import figures could be adjusted if we have more information on the quality of the data, or how they coded in the trade commodity classification.

• If the discrepancy is not too large, it can be ignored. There will be no effect on per caput intake as the commodity is not sent to food.

Problem 3: Statistical Discrepencies • There is a statistical discrepancy in trade data of Dry Beet Pulp as a result of an imbalance between import and export figures.

• There is an imbalance of -8(Mt) and there is no domestic production to cover the shortfall in exports.

Possible solutions?

• Take from stocks to cover food levels.

• However, note whether there is trend in stocks. Continually taking from stocks suggests there is a problem with the Supply elements data.

Problem 4:

• Production and Imports cannot cover official levels of food. How do we meet the level of utilization?

Thank you for your attention