Seven Challenges of the Russian Protest Movement
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Transcript of Seven Challenges of the Russian Protest Movement
Oleg KozlovskyInstitute for European, Russian and Eurasian
StudiesGeorge Washington University
Moderates Radicals
Negotiated, limited reform, influencing the authorities
Gradual change Talks and seeking
compromise
Regime change and complete recreation of the state
Revolutionary change Open conflict, public
protests, maximizing pressure
Both negotiations and open conflict require a strong movement
Neither strategy can be effective in the short run
Window of opportunity for negotiations closed by March 2012
Split in the ruling elites, most importantly the police force and the army, is a necessary precondition for a peaceful political change
Confrontation is not only emotional, but also rational
Serbian and Ukrainian experience: “victims of the regime”
No coherent approach to regime defectors Defectors should be judged on a case-by-case
basis
Russian protest movement is remarkably non-violent
Internal crisis activates violent elements of the movement
Public opinion is ambivalent about political violence (see Primorye Guerillas)
May 6: succumbing to a provocation harmed the movement, opened way to government crackdown
Movement was chaotic and spontaneous from the beginning
Void was filled by self-appointed Organizing Committee and other similar structures
Lack of legitimate leadership undermined attempts of negotiations and impeded coordination
Election of Coordinating Council in October 2012 opened new page
CC still has a long way to go to prove its effectiveness
Concise message vs. broad public appeal Bringing in economic and social welfare
issues may be risky Scope of demands: from bicycle lanes to
“Russia without Putin” Too humble demands may be as damaging
as too radical It may be easier to radicalize masses than
to de-marginalize a radical movement
Apathy and pessimism are major obstacles to public participation
Identifying, publicizing, and celebrating even small achievements can raise morale and people’s interest in activism
Preventing ungrounded euphoria and elevated expectations just as important as fighting pessimism
Moscow has been the ground zero of protests 78% of CC members are from Moscow Moscow has 12% of voters, 22% of GDP,
most federal institutions If Russia voted like Moscow in 2012, there
would be 2nd round “Sorties” to Astrakhan, Gagarin, etc. had
mixed results Long-term capacity building and support is
required for sustainable development of civil society in “the regions”
[email protected]/kozlovskytwitter.com/kozlovsky_en