Setting the scene - PwC · Beware of optimistic economists 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12...
Transcript of Setting the scene - PwC · Beware of optimistic economists 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12...
Speakers
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Economic update Austin Hughes – KBC
Business taxes Liam Diamond
Employment taxes Doone O’Doherty
Tax strategy Joe Tynan
Beware of optimistic economists
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Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
• Global growth has repeatedly
disappointed
• Uncertainty the new economic
watch word
• Facing up to risks and realities
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Brexit has already begun for many Irish exporters
• Brexit in three parts:
• Exchange rate
pain
• Uncertainty
affecting
investment
• How distorted
will the new
order be?
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Domestic demand improving unevenly
• Recovery now
broadening
• Pent-up demand
and legacy
problems
• Still lacking a ‘feel-
good’
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Income taxes have surged while incomes have struggled
• Average earnings
only now returning to
pre-crisis levels
• Income tax increases
leading to suffering or
stability?
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Public finances steadily approaching the promised (prudent) land
-8.9
-7.5
-6.2
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-2.7
-2.2-2.0
-1.1 -0.5
0.0
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0.20.7 1.1
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0.0
2.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Ireland, Structural budget deficit (percentage of potential GDP at current prices)
Ireland, General Government Balance less Financial Transfers (% GDP)
• Only 3 of 28 EU
countries expected to
have a lower public
deficit in 2017
• Headline and
underlying government
deficit now close to
balance
• Promised land reached
in 2018, implying
greater scope for
‘giveaways’
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Making a little go a long way
• Public spending and tax
adjustments altogether
smaller than the norm in
either good or bad times
• Budget broadly ‘indexes’ to
keep real value of spending
and effective tax burden
broadly unchanged—but
proportion of workforce
paying higher tax rate to
rise in 2017
• Will spreading the benefits
so thin be sustainable?
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Fiscal space: the twilight zone
1.9
3.33.1
3.3 3.4 3.3
1.9
3.3 3.43.6 3.7 3.7
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reference rate of potential growth (New) Reference rate of potential growth (Previous)
1.21.6
1.8
3.23.5 3.6
1.2
1.7 1.8
3.43.6
5.6
0
1
2
3
4
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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Implied gross fiscal space now available (New)
Implied gross fiscal space now available (Previous)
• In spite of much stronger growth,
potential has declined?
• Revisions likely to boost fiscal space
in time for election 20??
• Fiscal space slightly exceeded in
Budget 2017
• Spending commitments limit scope
for tax adjustments
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A shared view of a modest slowdown
Macroeconomic Forecasts for Ireland
2016 2017
KBCI DOF KBCI DOF
Consumer spending 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9
Government consumption 6.0 5.9 3.0 2.4
Investment 16.7 15.8 11.3 6.0
Exports 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.5
Imports 7.5 5.9 6.0 5.1
GDP (f) 4.0 4.2 3.0 3.5
GNP (f) 3.7 2.8 2.5 4.5
General government balance (% GDP) -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4
BOP current account (% GDP) 10.5 9.4 8.0 8.2
General government debt 75.7 78.6 72.0 76.0
Employment (% change) 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.2
Unemployment rate 8.2 8.3 7.5 7.7
HICP 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.3
• Department of Finance
and KBCI views broadly
similar
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Higher house prices or more homes?
€100,000
€120,000
€140,000
€160,000
€180,000
€200,000
€220,000
€240,000
€260,000
€280,000
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First-Time Buyer, New Houses Bought (3mma) First-Time Buyer, Average Price, New Houses (3mma)
• A year later, a possible
error
• Spending on new homes
has roughly doubled in
past 3 years
• Will supply or prices
respond?
• Have lessons been
learned?
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Summary
Passing a budget must count for something.
Public finances improving while economy gets a
little lift.
2017 likely to be a bumpy rather than a bumper
year.
The giveaways may not have not gone away for
good. 20
Budget 17 – Business taxes
• 12.5% rate “will not be changed”
• Update on Ireland’s International Tax Strategy published
• Independent review of corporate tax regime – Seamus Coffey
• Fair, competitive, certain, transparent regime which meets international standards
• Sugar tax – consultation, aligned with UK/2018
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Budget 17 – “Getting Ireland Brexit Ready”
• “Safety nets”, “economic shock absorbers”….
• All positive tax changes = Brexit readiness
12.5% rate
6.25% KDB – “additional benefit” for SMEs
Retention of reduced 9% VAT rate (tourism/hospitality)
“Mobility” tax changes (SARP/FED)
Agri/marine sector, self employed, entrepreneurs etc.
• Review of 1% stamp duty on shares
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Budget 17 – Financial Services
• S.110 changes (announced 6 Sept 2016)
• Considering further funds measures
• Estimated €50m tax yield for 2017
• Changes only applicable to Irish property investments
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2016 – lots going on!
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Ireland’s progress
EU ATAD
Inversions
US treaty
Apple & State Aid
US elections
BEPS
UK & Brexit
CCCTB
Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (“CCCTB”)
• Overall context for ATAD
• Unanimity required
• Impact of Apple case / Brexit
• Repeat of last time?
EU – 2 major tax initiatives
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Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive (“ATAD”)
• CFC – 2019
• GAAR – 2019
• Hybrids – 2019
• Exit taxes – 2020
• Interest deductions – 2024
UK & Brexit
Ireland offers stability
Access to EU labour market critical
Ireland well placed for new FDI
There will be some relocations
Financial Services especially
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Hard exit no later than March 2019: immigration control vs. free trade
Opportunities
UK & Brexit
x Uncertainty for Irish business
x Especially £ and Irish exports to UK
x Supply chain / border controls
x (New) UK competitive advantages?
x UK CT rate reduction aspirations
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Hard exit no later than March 2019: immigration control vs. free trade
Risks
Apple & State Aid – competition law
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Advantage
State resources
Selective
Distorts competition
Affects trade
€13bnplus
interest
Pre-Transfer Pricing
Pre-“Stateless” changes
A novel approach: “free for all”
Does it remind you of something?
Strong US reactions
Appeals x 2
US – a more (re)active IRS / Treasury
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Election / reform?
Inversions
S.385 debt rulesState Aid
reactions
US/Ireland treaty
What happened to BEPS?
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Transparency
Coherence
Substance
Transfer Pricing
Profits & “substance”
IP & DEMPE
Country by Country Reporting / +EU
OECD/EU “ruling” disclosures
EU accounts disclosures
Hybrids, mismatches, double non-taxation, etc.
Have we seen much coherence yet?
Ireland’s “BEPS” influenced journey
1990s
10% rate
2003
12.5% rate
2004
R&D tax credits
2009
IP tax depreciation
2014/2015
“Stateless”
removed
2015/2021
“IRNRs”
2004
HoldCo regime
2011
Transfer Pricing
2016
6.25% KDB
CbCR commences
OECD & EU disclosure regimes
2017
Strategy + “Independent review”
Accounts disclosure (EU)
Some more to come….
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Areas of focus
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Financial Services
• Brexit opportunities
• Regulatory regime
• US treaty qualification
• Irish property / S110s
• Funds / tax exempts
• Brexit challenges
• US treaty qualification
• EU ATAD
• Interest deductibility
• CFC / dividend taxation
PLCs / Domestic FDI
• Brexit risks & opps
• Apple / State Aid
• “Diverted Profits Tax”
• Phasing out IRNRs
• EU ATAD
So where does this position Ireland?
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Affects trade
Attractive HoldCo regime
25% R&D tax credits
12.5% statutory rate
BEPS compliant regime
EU / Eurozone / OECD
Good treaty network (70)
IP tax depreciation
6.25% KDB
Not a ‘rulings’ regime
Access to talent pool
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But the future is bright!
Uncertain times
Lots done, (some) more
to do
Ireland’s corporate tax future?
Universal Social Charge changes
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Salary Before Budget
Salary After Budget
% Change
First €12,012 1% First
€12,012
0.5% 0.5%
Next €6,656 3% Next
€6,760
2.5% 0.5%
Next €51,376 5.5% Next
€51,272
5% 0.5%
Balance 8% Balance 8% -
Surcharge 3% Surcharge 3% -
International standing
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IMD World Competitiveness Report 2016
World Economic Forum Report 2016
7th23rd
International comparisonSalary €55,000 (single)
Total effective tax rate (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CH SGP UK US - NY IRL LUX NLD FRA GER
CH
SGP
UK
US - NY
IRL
LUX
NLD
FRA
GER
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Effective Tax Rate
International comparisonSalary €95,000 (single)
Total effective tax rate (%)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
SGP CH US-NY UK FRA LUX IRL GER NLD
SGP
CH
US-NY
UK
FRA
LUX
IRL
GER
NLD
Effective Tax Rate
International comparisonSalary €200,000 (single)
Total effective tax rate (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
SGP CH US - NY UK LUX GER FRA IRL NLD
SGP
CH
US - NY
UK
LUX
GER
FRA
IRL
NLD
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Effective Tax Rate
What else is out there?
Share based remuneration
CGT relief
Gifts / inheritances
Work, travel & mobility
Revenue audits
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Other changes
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Climate change and carbon tax09
Landlords and interest deductibility 02
Rent a room 03
Mortgage interest relief 04Home carers’
credit05
DIRT06
Earned income tax credit07
Home renovation incentive scheme 08
Help to Buy Scheme01
Three key factors
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Increased
Transparency
International competition
Increased transparency
Demand for a fair share
UK anti-hybrid rules
CCCTB
Brexit
US election
From strategy to execution
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Public CbCR
State Aid
CbCR
ATAD
International factors
BEPS
US/Ireland treaty
From strategy to execution
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Domestic factors
Finance Bill #1
Property funds
Disclosure of accounts
Innovation R&D, KDB, IP
Interaction with Revenue
New Appeals process
Corporation tax review
Finance Bill #2
Directors’ Compliance Statement
Domestic political environment
Find out more @ pwc.ie
Budget 17 website
Brexit website
Graduate recruitment website
Alumni website
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