Estimation of Life Expectancy and Health- Adjusted Life Expectancy ...
Session no. 1, 2011: Estimating Life Expectancy in Archaeological Populations, by
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Transcript of Session no. 1, 2011: Estimating Life Expectancy in Archaeological Populations, by
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Estimating Life Expectancy in Archaeological Populations
Palaeodemography And Palaeoepidemiology
Joseph R. Krecioch Cave & Necropolis
Session 1 2011
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Demography
• “the study of population statistics” (White and Folkens 2005)
(mortality and birth rates; population size, growth, and density; life expectancy, etc)
• Palaeodemography: “vital statistics of past populations” (Brothwell 1981)
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Epidemiology
• “concerned with the distribution of disease and death, and with their determinants and consequences in population groups” (Omran 1971)
• Palaeoepidemiology not only attempts to describe disease and mortality in prehistoric populations, but also informs future trends. Depends upon osteoarchaeology and palaeopathology.
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Estimating Life Expectancy
• Even in modern populations, LE is fraught with inconsistencies and uncertainties.
• High infant mortality significantly reduces life expectancy, so LE changes according to age
• Famines, wars, epidemics also contribute to misleading LEs
• If LE is ’38’, it doesn’t mean 19 year-olds were ‘middle-aged’
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LE in Archaeology
• Age estimation of human remains would ideally provide LE of a population.
• Age estimation has been thought unreliable for ages above 50 or 60 years
• Archaeological sample or site does not imply a once living ‘community’ or population
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Methods
• First, determine ages osteologically
• Drop individuals under 20-23yo
• Apply statistics: Bayesian methods
• Newer statistical methods give different LEs
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Ageing Skeletal Remains
• Until Old Adult stage, ageing is based upon generation; after Adult stage, bone degeneration gives clues to age.
• Most important for older age estimation is the pubic symphysis and auricular surfaces
(Lovejoy et al 1985; Buckberry and Chamberlain 2002)
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Auricular Surface
• Surface Texture• Fine• Coarse• Dense
• Microporosity• Surface pores <1mm
• Macroporosity• Surface pores >1mm
• Apical Changes• lipping
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Storey’s comparison of Statistical
methods
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Epidemiological Transitions• Post-Neolithic: Agriculture and Sedentarism
– Big drop from Mesolithic to Neolithic– Large increase Neolithic to Copper Age– Smaller increases Copper to Bronze/Iron
• European Industrialization and urbanization– 17th to 18th Centuries: Drastic declines in LE
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Transitions in the Balearics
• Pre-Talaiotic– Epipalaeolithic– Chalcolithic
• Talaiotic• Roman• Pre-Arab Transition• Arab…
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Further Reading
Gage, Timothy (2005) Are Modern Environments Really Bad for Us?: Revisiting the Demographic and Epidemiologic Transitions. A JP A 48:96-117
Konigsberg ande Frankenberg (2002) Deconstructing Death in Palaeodemography. A JP A 117:297-309
Roksandic and Armstrong (2011), Using the Life History Model to Set the Stage(s) of Growth and Senescence in Bioarchaeology and Paleodemography. AJPA (online Perspective)