Session Analysis Techniques. Session Outline Analysis Techniques Problem Solving Monitoring Progress...

Session

Analysis Techniques

Session Outline

Analysis Techniques Problem Solving Monitoring Progress 6 Hats Thinking Pareto Charts SPC Charts Histograms Fish Bone Diagrams

Task 1: Undertake Chapter Review: Heizer & Render –

Managing Quality Ch. 6. http://wps.prenhall.com/bp_heizer_opsmgmt_9/77/19791/5066729.cw/inde

x.html

Task 2: Undertake Chapter Self-study Quizz: Heizer &

Render – Managing Quality Ch. 6. http://wps.prenhall.com/bp_heizer_opsmgmt_9/77/19791/5066729.cw/inde

x.html

Task 3: Undertake Case Study – Westover Electric Inc. http://wps.prenhall.com/wps/media/objects/4947/5066500/Inter_cases/ch0

6/Westover.html

Discuss the questions outlined in the case study.

This Session

The Search

‘A problem well stated is a problem half solved.’ (Charles F Kettering)

‘Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.’ (Japanese Proverb)

‘Nothing is more dangerous than an idea when it’s the only one you have.’

‘The problems we face cannot be resolved by the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.’ (Albert Einstein)

Analysis Techniques

Problem Solving What is the difference between a cause and a

symptom? Symptoms are the results of problems. They flag the existence of problems but they don’t create them. The way to fix a problem is to remove it’s cause.

Monitoring Progress Using charts and diagrams converts written

information into a visual format. What is actually happening is revealed which aids in locating problems, revealing relationships, determining cause and effects and highlighting flaws in the workflow processes.

Analysis Tools Tools for generating ideas

Check sheet Scatter diagram Cause and effect diagram

Tools to organize data Pareto charts Process charts (Flow diagrams)

Tools for identifying problems Histograms Statistical process control chart

Seven Tools for Analysis

The 80:20 Principle

A late 19th-century Italian mathematical economist and sociologist named Vilfredo Pareto developed the 80:20 principle. Sometimes called the Pareto principle, it states that a small proportion of people/effort/time (20%) accounts for a large proportion of the results (80%).

Additionally, a reasonable proportion of people/effort/time (30%) accounts for a small proportion of the results (15%).

Finally, a significant proportion of people/effort/time (50%) accounts for a minimal proportion of the results (5%).

Topic Example Video

The following video explains the 80/20 rule as it’s otherwise known by, the Pareto Principle.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu1oGBzAc

W0

Pareto Chart

NUMBER OFNUMBER OFCAUSECAUSE DEFECTSDEFECTS PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGE

Poor designPoor design 8080 6464 %%Wrong part dimensionsWrong part dimensions 1616 1313Defective partsDefective parts 1212 1010Incorrect machine calibrationIncorrect machine calibration 77 66Operator errorsOperator errors 44 33Defective materialDefective material 33 22Surface abrasionsSurface abrasions 33 22

125125 100100 %%

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what is a pareto chart.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcVJ2Ruuv

Hw

Pareto Chart

Per

cen

t fr

om

eac

h c

ause

Per

cen

t fr

om

eac

h c

ause

Causes of poor qualityCauses of poor quality

Mac

hine

cal

ibra

tions

Mac

hine

cal

ibra

tions

Defec

tive

parts

Defec

tive

parts

Wro

ng d

imen

sion

s

Wro

ng d

imen

sion

s

Poor D

esig

n

Poor D

esig

n

Ope

rato

r err

ors

Ope

rato

r err

ors

Defec

tive

mat

eria

ls

Defec

tive

mat

eria

ls

Surfa

ce a

bras

ions

Surfa

ce a

bras

ions00

1010

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070(64)(64)

(13)(13)(10)(10)

(6)(6)(3)(3) (2)(2) (2)(2)

Cause & Effect Diagrams

Also referred to as Fishbone or Ishikawa diagrams.

Used to find problem sources/solutions A technique which uses causes

differentiation to enable problems to be solved or effects to be gained.

Looks to address causes of problems by looking at it from all angles.

This is critical for sound problem analysis.

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what is a cause and effect diagram.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNDlg1h-za

0

Cause and Effect Diagram Identify problem to correct Formulate problem and locate at the fish

head Decide on possible main causes and show

as bones off fish spine Along each fish bone, list all possible issues

that relate to each cause Ask ‘What could have caused problems in

these areas?’ Repeat for each sub-area. Think about order of tasks that need to be

performed

Too many defects

Too many defects

Problem

Cause & Effect Diagram Example

Method Manpower

Material Machinery

Too many defects

Too many defects

Main Cause

Main Cause


Method Manpower

Material Machinery

DrillDrillDrillDrillOvertimeOvertimeOvertimeOvertime

SteelSteelSteelSteelWoodWoodWoodWood

LatheLatheLatheLathe

Too many defects

Too many defects

Sub-Cause


Method Manpower

Material Machinery

DrillDrillDrillDrillOvertimeOvertimeOvertimeOvertime

SteelSteelSteelSteelWoodWoodWoodWood

LatheLatheLatheLathe

Too many defects

Too many defects

TiredTiredTiredTired

OldOldOldOld

SlowSlowSlowSlow


Fishbone Chart - Problems with Airline Customer Service

Topic Example Video

The following video explains how multiple why charts work.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvkYFZUsB

nw

Multiple Why Charts

This is a great technique for tunneling to the cause of a problem. It works like this:

1. Define your problem clearly. 2. Brainstorm possible causes. 3. Decide the most likely cause(s). 4. Ask 'Why?' as many times as

needed to arrive at the most likely causes. (Five times is usually enough for the most likely causes.)

Forcefield Analysis

Developed by Kurt Lewin in 1951 as a technique for analysing all the for and against forces.

Forces for are referred to as “driving forces”. These are the positive forces necessary to reach

the desired state. Forces against are referred to as “restraining

forces”. These are the negative forces which prevents

reaching the desired state. Helps to weigh up the importance of the “pros

and cons”.

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what is a Forcefield Analysis.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBdq7cL5n

O8

Forcefield Analysis

List all the forces for the decision, objective or priority in one column and all those against in another column.

You may need to brainstorm to identify them all.

Draw a diagram showing the forces for and against the decision, objective or priority.

Having carried out an analysis and decided it is worthwhile proceeding, you then need to either reduce the strength of the forces opposing or increase the strength of the forces supporting.

Forcefield Analysis

In groups of 3 – 4, select a problem or issue to discuss.Create a chart with two headings: driving forces and forces of resistance.

1. Have the group brainstorm which forces belong in each column. Driving forces are characteristics of the issue that make it easy to take place; resistant forces are characteristics of the issue that make it difficult to take place.

2. Evaluate the chart together.

Forcefield Analysis

Mind Map Mind maps are used to visually represent a

thought pattern. It begins with the main idea at the centre with

the key concepts projecting from this. The maps prompts connections or associations

between concepts. Advantages are:

Focus on main theme Identification of key concepts Links between concpts Organisation Structure.

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what is a Mind Map.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=4wZ5wV5dPZc

Mind Map

Decision Trees A graphic model which displays the sequence of

alternative courses of action. It shows the payoffs associated with the various paths,

and The probabilities associated with potential future

conditions. Allows decision makers to consider more complex

alternatives. Decision possibilities can be considered and their

expected values calculated involving multiple decision points

Can help managers identify different options as well as consider impacts of likely alternatives.

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what are Decision Trees.


v=BB6gjBgC6uM

Decision Criteria Maximax

An optimistic decision criteria Maximin

A pessimistic decision criteria Expected Monetary Value (EMV(j))

The expected profit for taking action j Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL(j))

The expected opportunity loss for taking action j Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)

The expected opportunity loss from the best decision Return to Risk Ratio

Takes into account the variability in payoffs

Sample Decision Tree

Large factory

Small factory

Average factory

Strong EconomyStable EconomyWeak Economy



Payoffs

200

50-120

40

30

20

90

120

-30

Add Probabilities and Payoffs

Large factory

Small factory

Decision

Average factory

Uncertain Events




PayoffsProbabilities

200

50-120

40

30

20

90

120

-30

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

Fold Back the Tree

Large factory

Small factory

Average factory




200

50-120

40

30

20

90

120

-30

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

EMV=200(.3)+50(.5)+(-120)(.2)=61

EMV=90(.3)+120(.5)+(-30)(.2)=81

EMV=40(.3)+30(.5)+20(.2)=31

Make the Decision

Large factory

Small factory

Average factory




200

50-120

40

30

20

90

120

-30

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

(.3)

(.5)

(.2)

EV=61

EV=81

EV=31

Maximum

EMV=81

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what are decision trees.


v=lEQrZvYfGWw

Six Hat Thinking

Developed by Edward De Bono. Assists managers to become better thinkers and

problem solvers. Technique essentially involves a form of role

playing. Each different coloured hat represents a different

role and type of thinking about a situation. The colour of the hat relates to its purpose. Enables managers to think “outside the square” to

obtain a more rounded perspective.

Topic Example Video

The following video explanation by Edward de Bono on what is a Six Hats Thinking.


v=o3ew6h5nHcc

White Hat This hat speaks of a thinking approach that

focuses on available data. The focus is on gathering good information, facts, figures and statistics about the problem. It questions the amount and quality of information.

Consider current information and what can be learnt from it. These exclude opinions and beliefs and hence are seen as neutral and objective. Consider any knowledge gaps you may have, try to correct them or at least take account of them.

Red Hat

Emotion, intuition and gut reaction is the thinking approach this hat represents. It uses emotions, feelings and hunches or gut feelings.

This hat allows the emotive concerns to be raised and discussed without justification.

It is also affected by perceptions on how other people will react emotionally and the possible responses of people who are ignorant of your reasoning.

The use of such emotions in business is often considered inappropriate because business decisions are logical.

Black Hat This hat reflects negativity. It is pessimistic and

looks for problems and difficulties that can go wrong, but in a logical way.

Black Hat thinking is of real value as this technique looks for weak points in a plan.

It allows you to consider them, review them, alter them or take steps to counter or eliminate them.

It is the balance to the super positive approach that often cannot see problems in advance.

Black Hat thinking can help make plans tougher and more resilient.

Yellow Hat Almost the opposite to the Black Hat, Yellow

Hat thinking is positive and optimistic. This role uses an optimistic approach and

seeks positive benefits and opportunities provided they are logically based.

It seeks constructive solutions that can be seen in the form of visions, ideals or optimum solutions.

It helps you to see the benefits in a plan or decision and encourages you to press on and persevere when things become difficult.

Green Hat

This hat focuses on growth through creativity, alternative views, and the generation of ideas. Creativity is what Green Hat thinking is all about.

Green Hat thinking is valuable, for example, when brainstorming for plans and ideas, where the focus is on ideas with little or no criticism.

It uses questions that encourage new concepts, lateral thinking and, perhaps, ignores errors.

Blue Hat

Process and control best describe Blue Hat thinking. The last of the thinking hats provides a control or monitoring focus. It directs or determines the type of thinking required.

Blue will use questions that set the agenda, resolves arguments and ensure the group follows the rules.

People who chair projects and meetings may well wear this hat. Understanding difficulties and developing contingency plans often flow out of Blue Hat thinking.

Activity: 6 Hats Thinking In groups of 3-4, consider an issue or topic to explore,

ie, the influence of JJJ on its listening audience. Each student to wear a different hat to answer the questions

White hat - what are the facts about JJJ? Black hat - what are some of the negatives about JJJ? Yellow hat - what do people gain from listening to JJJ? Red hat - how does listening to JJJ make us feel? Green hat - what could be changed to make the station more accessible or more appealing?Blue hat - how do the mass media in general affect our youth culture?

Each group to report findings. Time: 15 – 20 minutes.

Appreciation Technique

Appreciation is a technique that has been used in the military forces over a long period of time.

It seeks to extract the maximum information from the known facts.

All factors that are likely to have an influence on the end result are identified and examined in detail.

Starting with a fact, the idea is to keep asking the question “What are the implications of this” until all possible inferences have been made.

Appreciation Technique Checklist

Starting with a fact, list all the relevant facts and keep asking the question, 'So what?' to extract the maximum amount of important information from a given fact.

In other words, what are the implications of the fact?

The idea is to keep asking that question until all possible inferences have been made.

PMI Technique

PMI stands for 'plus, minus, implications'. PMI is a valuable improvement to the centuries old 'weighing pros and cons' approach.

The technique is valuable when considering a course of action to improve the situation.

Sometimes, doing nothing and letting things run their course may be the correct approach.

PMI Technique Checklist

Draw up a table with columns headed 'Plus', 'Minus' and 'Implications'.

Write down all the positive points under the “Plus” heading.

Write down all the negative points under the “Minus” heading.

Write down interesting implications and possible outcomes of any proposed course of action.

Assign a score to each point and total. Add totals to assess the worth of your decision.

Close scores indicate further evaluation.

Topic Example Video

The following video explains what is a network diagram and a PERT chart.

Take note of the key points. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUpttiICcVE

Network Diagram

Next Session Task 1: Undertake Chapter Review: Robbins – Management

9th Canadian Ed. Ch. 8. http://wps.pearsoned.ca/ca_ph_robbins_mmgt_8_9/87/22467/5751682.cw/index.html

Task 2: Undertake Chapter Quiz: Robbins – Management 9th

Canadian Ed. Ch. 8. http://wps.pearsoned.ca/ca_ph_robbins_mmgt_8_9/87/22467/5751682.cw/index.html

Task 3: Undertake Case Study – npower Managing Risk http://businesscasestudies.co.uk/npower/managing-risk-through-effective-team-based-decision-making/

introduction.html#axzz2bNrs9lxr

Question: How did npower effectively manage it’s risks?

Session Analysis Techniques. Session Outline Analysis Techniques Problem Solving Monitoring Progress...

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