Session 6.2 small scale rubber farming, china
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Transcript of Session 6.2 small scale rubber farming, china
Small scale rubber farming and income risk in Xishuangbanna, China
Hermann Waibel, Shi Min
Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, School of Economics and Management, Leibniz University Hannover
Jikun Huang
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Outline
1. Background
2. Objectives
3. Data
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Background
Conditions of Xishuangbanna Dai autonomous prefecture • Located in the southern of China, bordering Laos, Myanmar• 95% of area is mountain• Diversity of Ethnic Minorities
• Development of rubber economy• 1950-60s: Introduction of rubber• 1970-80s: Rubber expansion by state-own farms• Since 1990s: Expansion of rubber plantation by Small scale farmers
• Consequences of rubber for smallholders• Increase in household income and changes in livelihoods• Potential environmental and food security risks Current researches status• Most previous studies are qualitative analysis or smaller case studies• Poor representation of smallholder rubber farming in Xishuangbanna• Insufficient quantitative information on rubber farming (e.g. yield, input use)
Objectives
Survey and analyze the status quo of smallholder rubber farming• e.g. Land use, Input, Yield, Productivity, Revenue
Identify and discuss the critical values for rubber yield and price by breakeven analysis
Assess the contribution of rubber to household income
Explore the potential income riskiness of small rubber farmers using appropriate income diversification indices
Data
Baseline survey of SURUMER-SP9 on March 2013• Questionnaire design
Pre-survey: July 2012 Pre-test: December 2012
• SamplingStratified random sampling design(Based on population, rubber area and geographic location)8 townships; 42 villages
• Enumerators training5 days training:
3 days class room lectures and exercises 2 days field training
• Household survey Compensation 30 Yuan /per household 612 households Response rate 84 % (of sample drawn)
Results
Rubber farming • Land use for rubber farming
Categories Total land area Rubber land area Share of rubber land area
in total land areaPercent in total rubber
land(mu/person) (mu/person) (%)
All sample (612 households) 13.36 10.57 81% 100%
EthnicHan 10.46 6.47 75% 2.7%Dai 10.11 8.58 85% 47.5%
Hani 18.30 16.69 88% 17.7%Yi 24.04 15.63 69% 15.2%
Bulang 15.18 10.52 72% 8.5%Jinuo 18.20 14.84 79% 6.0%
Yao 15.91 10.16 58% 2.3%Others 5.29 4.33 82% 0.1%
Altitude
Altitude≤800 meters 12.74 10.53 85% 68.1%800<Altitude≤1000
meters 12.93 9.75 74% 27.0%
Altitude>1000 meters 35.39 21.81 62% 5.0%County
Menghai 10.71 7.46 77% 8.9%Jinghong 9.80 8.35 84% 36.6%
Mengla 18.23 14.12 79% 54.5%
Results
Contribution of rubber to household income by category
Categories Total net income
Yuan/person/yearRubber net incomeYuan/person/year
Percentage of rubber income in total
Total 16515.72 6842.24 41%Education of household head
0 year 14262.97 6692.15 47%1-6 years 15570.10 6985.37 45%
7- 16 years 21555.41 6729.40 31%Ethnic groups
Han 18150.01 3336.54 18%Dai 12845.30 7024.08 55%
Hani 22805.97 13372.22 59%Yi 22783.56 1179.63 5%
Bulang 16674.77 6493.13 39%Jinuo 39343.31 8791.59 22%
Yao 5313.97 -1228.05 -23%
Results
Contribution of rubber to households income by category
Categories Total net income
Yuan/person/yearRubber net incomeYuan/person/year
Percentage of rubber income in total
AltitudeAltitude≤800 meters 16890.27 8537.672 51%
800<Altitude≤1000 meters 12850.11 3768.178 29%Altitude>1000 meters 51437.13 -1812.035 -4%
County Menghai 10195.23 2686.73 26%Jinghong 14944.51 7177 48%
Mengla 20408.45 7869 39%
Results Cost of rubber farming input in 2012 (Yuan/mu)
Categories Total expensesExpense items
Fertilizer Pesticide Hiring laborAll samples (1667 plots) 164.72 134.90 24.87 4.94Education of household head
0 year 168.59 137.26 29.95 1.391-6 years 156.82 131.71 23.06 2.05
7- 16 years 177.60 139.05 22.24 16.31Ethnic groups
Han 262.56 220.64 34.99 6.93Dai 185.13 157.24 26.19 1.70
Hani 151.98 101.00 25.27 25.71Yi 89.28 70.28 16.25 2.74
Bulang 110.57 86.53 23.23 0.80Jinuo 126.28 96.92 22.31 7.04
Yao 106.34 90.36 15.98 0.00
Results Cost of rubber farming input in 2012 (Yuan/mu) cont.
Categories Total expensesExpense items
Fertilizer Pesticide Hired laborAltitude
Altitude≤800 meters 164.71 133.97 23.98 6.76800<Altitude≤1000 meters 170.43 141.68 27.83 0.92
altitude>1000 meters 98.16 81.64 15.20 1.33County
Menghai 169.16 141.08 26.51 1.57Jinghong 203.99 172.80 27.24 3.95
Mengla 118.56 89.70 21.62 7.23Harvest started
Yes 182.57 146.91 28.94 6.72No 146.51 122.65 20.72 3.13
Results Productivity and Revenue of rubber plantation in 2012 (Yuan/mu)
Categories Rubber cake Gross Revenue Net revenue
kg/mu Yuan/mu Yuan/muAll samples (842 harvested plots) 112.02 2341.30 2158.73Education of household head
0 year 126.28 2579.72 2383.421-6 years 109.40 2286.15 2114.28
7- 16 years 96.94 2118.48 1929.57Ethnic groups
Han 128.43 2011.68 1833.69Dai 113.13 2395.54 2197.85
Hani 105.00 2470.62 2294.80Yi 118.76 1929.84 1818.00
Bulang 95.76 2015.79 1945.95Jinuo 108.78 2072.36 1926.61
Yao 40.00 520.00 113.00
Results Productivity and Revenue of rubber plantation in 2012 (Yuan/mu) cont.
Categories Rubber cake Gross Revenue Net revenuekg/mu Yuan/mu Yuan/mu
Harvest phase 1-5 years 91.94 1788.59 1619.37
6-10 years 117.68 2527.47 2358.88More than 10 years 128.18 2760.83 2552.85
AltitudeAltitude≤800 meters 117.19 2536.95 2351.15
800<Altitude≤1000 meters 95.96 1716.16 1543.06altitude>1000 meters 43.33 1430.00 1346.00
County Menghai 82.11 2323.36 2106.61Jinghong 119.99 2480.51 2271.80
Mengla 107.95 2141.36 2005.94
Results
Breakeven analysis• Breakeven points - Formula of calculating the Breakeven points for each rubber plot( i ):
- Calculation results:
CountyBreakeven point (mean) Percent of below
Price (Yuan/kg) Yield (kg/mu)
Total samples 28.36 46.73 21.97%Menghai 55.08 66.24 31.65%Jinghong 35.80 56.06 27.31%Mengla 10.59 28.02 11.65%
Results • Distribution of distance between actual price and breakeven price Kernel density distribution Cumulative distribution
0.2
.4.6
.81
Tota
l
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100Price_minus_Breakevenprice
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4D
ensi
ty
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100Price_minus_Breakevenprice
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 2.5700
Total samples
Results • Cumulative distribution of distance between price and breakeven price for the three
counties.0
.2.4
.6.8
1
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100Price_minus_Breakevenprice
Menghai JinghongMengla
Results • Percent of Yield below Breakeven point by
harvest phase
• Percent of Yield below Breakeven point by
altitude
1-5 years 6-10 years More than 10 years
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
26.89%
16.05%
21.77%
Altitude≤600
600<Altitude≤700
700<Altitude≤800
Altitude>800
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
15.64%
19.33%
26.09%
29.50%
Results
Income diversification • Sources of Income
• Income diversification index- Formula of Shannon equitability index for each household:
Where n denote the number of income source,; represents the ratio of income source i in total income.Shannon Equitability Index, which states the percentage of actual income diversification in relation to the
maximal possible diversity of income. The value of Shannon equitability index is nearer 1 indicating the more diversification of income and the less income riskiness
Categories Source IncomeYuan/person/year
Net IncomeYuan/person/year
Total sample 612 19530.71 16515.72Rubber 607 8477.80 6842.24Crops except rubber 403 4811.86 4164.83Livestock 111 1317.05 600.44Off farm Employment 143 1790.61 1790.61Self-employment 66 2070.30 2070.30Natural resource extraction 444 169.77 153.98Cash gift 213 623.05 623.05Public transfers 409 270.27 270.27
Results • Calculation results of Shannon Equitability Index- Average: 0.48
• Shannon Equitability Index by Ethnicity- Highest: Yao 0.69- Lowest: Bulang 0.39
Bulang Hani Total samples
Yi Han Dai Jinuo Yao0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.390.45 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49
0.55
0.69
Results • Shannon Equitability Index by education level of household head
Categories SEI
AltitudeAltitude≤800 meters 0.45
800<Altitude≤1000 meters 0.57Altitude>1000 meters 0.27
County Menghai 0.51Jinghong 0.47
Mengla 0.49
Education of household head 0 year 1-6 years 7- 16 years
Shannon equitability index 0.47 0.49 0.49
Percent≤0.5 0.5<Percent≤0.8 0.8<Percent≤10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
• SEI by share of rubber land in total • SEI by household location
Results • Effect of income diversification on rubber farming riskiness
- Index of income diversification : Shannon Equitability Index(SEI)
- Index of farming riskiness: For the plots which actual yield below breakeven points: Riskiness=|yield minus Breakeven yield|
Conclusions
Rubber has taken over the rural economy in Xishunangbanna and other parts of Southern China (81% of the total land is used for rubber cultivation) and poverty has been reduced in the area.
Land usage, Input, productivity and revenue of smallholders rubber farming differ among ethnic groups, locations and the characteristics of household head.
Over 40 % of household income is now from rubber farming Over 20% of rubber plots (in harvest phase) are below the breakeven point
indicating riskiness of rubber farming which is affected by ethnic groups, harvest phase and altitude.
Diversity in income sources is 0.48 low on average (SEI = 0.48) but varies by ethnic minority groups (Yao = 0.69) and (Bulang =0.39).
There is some notion of a kind of “optimal diversity” based on our simple risk measure.
Econometric analysis can provide more insights into the opportunities and risks of rubber farming.
Thanks for your attention!