SESAME 2000 -2010
description
Transcript of SESAME 2000 -2010
SESAME2000-2010
Cindy Bae (18214072)Elly Jang (25693094)Vicky Wu (15039076)
Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123) Amelia Zhu (37438090)
SURVIVALSEEDS
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OUTLINEOFSESAME• Introduction• Sesame World Market Trend - Production, Supply, Demand - Price Pattern - Market Concentration and Thickness of the Market • Market Analysis - Supply and Demand Shock - Case Study Countries: Ethiopia, China, Japan • Conclusion
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
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Calendar
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Activity Sep Oct Nov Dec MarFebJan Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Land clearing & Preparation
Seeding/Sawing
Weed and Pest Control
Harvesting
Threshing
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SESAMEPROFILE
Growing Condition: sandy loam soil with pH 5.5 – 8.0 area below 1,250 meters above sea leveltemperature above 20 C rainfall from 500 – 650 mms
Growing Distribution:Developing countries produce 98% of world sesame seed, because harvesting sesame is labor intensive
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
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WHERESESAMEGROWS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
EthiopiaSudan
Uganda
ChinaIndia
Burma
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SESAMEPROFILESesame Usage:Food (oil, seasoning), Pharmaceutical and Cosmetics
Health effect: High in Vitamin E & B and Low in Cholesterol High Anti-OxidantLowering Blood PressureBone and Respiratory HealthCancer Prevention
Different type: Oil Grade Sesame (White)Food Grade Sesame (Black)Sesame with higher oil content is considered of higher grade
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
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SESAMEMARKET
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
World Production VS Supply VS Demand
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
Production
Supply
Demand
Growth Ratio, 2000-2010Production 1.075 = 8%
Supply 1.114 = 11%
Demand 1.117 = 12%
Demand grows more rapidly than supply and production
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Top 5 Exporters Sesame Seed Real Price PatternSESAMEMARKET2000-2010
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Real Price - Main ExportersIndia
Sudan (former)
Ethiopia
Nigeria
China
Year
$/tonne
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
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Top 5 Importers Sesame Seed Real Price PatternSESAMEMARKET2000-2010
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Real Price - Main Importers China
Japan
Turkey
Republic of Korea
Syrian Arab Republic
Year
$/tonne
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BASELINERATIO2000-2010
Top 5 Exporters Price Growth Ratio Food Price Index Growth RatioIndia 1.199429 = 20%
1.131868059 = 13%Sudan (former) 1.211999 = 21%Ethiopia 1.12072 = 12%Nigeria 1.13141 = 13%China 1.197077 = 20%
Top 5 Importers Price Growth Ratio Food Price Index Growth Ratio China 1.19384 = 20%
1.131868059 = 13%Japan 1.175218 = 18%Turkey 1.257159 = 26%
Republic of Korea 1.191829 = 19%Syrian Arab Republic 1.11697 = 12%
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Sesame price had the same pattern with food price index, but increased rapidly
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SESAMESEED2000
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Main producers
Tonne Main Exporters
Tonne MainImporters
Tonne
China 811819 Sudan (former) 209949 Japan 164713
India 517800 India 183306 Egypt 85919
Myanmar 295515 China 103326 Republic of Korea 70118
Sudan (former) 282000 Myanmar 34400 United States of America 49062
Uganda 97000 Nigeria 30200 China 37149
%top producers/world 79%
%top exporters/world 76%
%top importers/world 62%
World 2535731 World 736800 World 658917
%production traded: 736800 / 2535731 = 29%
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SESAMESEED2008
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
%production traded: 906549 / 3465615 = 29%
Main producers
Tonne Main Exporters
Tonne MainImporters
Tonne
Myanmar 853390 India 194365 China 234044
India 640000 Ethiopia 130977 Japan 185105
China 586701 Myanmar 110000 Turkey 80194
Sudan (former) 350000 Sudan (former) 105541 Republic of Korea 63949
Ethiopia 186772 Nigeria 91400 Syrian Arab Republic 43456
%top producers/world 76%
%top exporters/world 70%
%top importers/world 66%
World 3465615 World 906549 World 923229
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SESAMESEED2010
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Main producers
Tonne Main Exporters
Tonne MainImporters
Tonne
India 893000 India 321771 China 420635
Myanmar 880000 Ethiopia 228039 Japan 161433
China 587947 Nigeria 140800 Turkey 102058
Ethiopia 260534 Sudan (former) 138000 Republic of Korea 77747
Sudan (former) 248000 United Republic of Tanzania 65708 Syrian Arab
Republic 52028
%top producers/world 73%
%top exporters/world 73%
%top importers/world 70%
World 3931636 World 1231737 World 1166448
%production traded: = 1231737 / 3931636 = 31%
RATIO2000-2010
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
2000 2008 2010
Producer CR(%top producers/world)
79% 76% 73%
Exporter CR(%top producers/world)
76% 70% 73%
Importer CR (%top producers/world)
62% 66% 70%
%production traded 29% 29% 31%
• Neither perfect thin nor thick market Thin (10%) < Sesame (30%) < Thick (50%) Moderate well traded; main producers are also main exporters ;market is concentrated; less price volatility
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MARKETANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
World Price ↑
World Supply (Quantity) ↑
Technology
Land Use
Policy
Oil Price
(2008)
World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑
Income Econom
ical Crisis
Awareness of
Health
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OILPRICE
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
IndiaSudan (former)EthiopiaNigeriaChina
Year
$/tonne
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
China
Japan
Turkey
Republic of Korea
Syrian Arab Republic
Year
$/tonne
High oil price in 2008 affected the high price in world sesame price.
Real Price - Main Exporters
Real Price - Main Importers
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CHANGEINGDP
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
World Demand for Sesame
Sesame
YEAR
TON
As the income increased, food demand including sesame increase.
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BYPRODUCTEFFECT
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
The sesame seed world demand shows a similar pattern with sesame oil demand
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EXPORTERS
• MAJOR CHANGE • COUNTRIES
ETHIOPIA
IMPORTERS
• MAJOR CHANGE • COUNTRIES
CHINA• JAPAN
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MAJOREXPORTERS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
SESAME SEEDSMAJOR EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS
2000 2008 2010
Ranked in Order by Countries
Exported Market Share
(%)
Ranked in Order by Countries
Exported Market Share
(%)
Ranked in Order by Countries
Exported Market Share
(%)
Sudan (Former) 28.49% India 21.44% India 26.12%India 24.88% Ethiopia 14.45% Ethiopia 18.51%China 14.02% Burma 12.13% Nigeria 11.43%
Myanmar 4.67% Sudan (Former) 11.64% Sudan (Former) 11.20%Nigeria 4.10% Nigeria 10.08% United Republic of
Tanzania 5.33%
Top 3 67.40% Top 3 48.02% Top 3 56.07%
Top 5 76.16% Top 5 69.75% Top 5 72.61%
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MAJOR CHANGE ON EXPORTERS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
WORLDMARKET
India (Stable) Large Land Usage + Low Productivity
Sudan (Decreased) Reduced Land Usage + Low Productivity; Market Share: 28.49% 11.20% Ethiopia (Increased) Market Share: 18.51%
China (Decreased) Market Share: 14.02%
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IMPORTERSOFETHIOPIA
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
SESAME SEEDS2005 2011
Ranked in Order by Countries
Exported Market Share (%)
Ranked in Order by Countries
Exported Market Share (%)
Japan 26.11 China 41.22United States 25.92 Turkey 21.59
Egypt 19.53 Israel 13.22Jordan 10.68 Jordan 7.75Greece 8.45 Greece 6.50
Saudi Arabia 2.63 Saudi Arabia 4.28Lebanon 1.91 Yemen 2.22
Netherland 1.39 United States 1.47Switzerland 1.32 Other 1.75
Other 2.07 TOTAL 100TOTAL 100
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REASONS FOR CHANGE
1. Target Market: Low Value Export Markets a. Japan: strict standard on quality and food safetyb. USA & Europe: high food safety standards (organic certification) for
bakery applicationsc. Substitute effect of Cotton seed (Profitable for farmers, 90% oil)
2. Strategic Policy: d. ECX (Ethiopia Commodity Exchange from 2008) e. Currency Depreciation (Positive correlation between export volume and
nominal exchange rate)3. Competitor: Sudan
f. Access to sea portg. Policy reason: Sudan benefits further from membership in the Pan-Arab
free trade area.
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
ETHIOPIA
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MAJORIMPORTERS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
SESAME SEEDSMAJOR IMPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS
2000 2008 2010
Ranked in Order by Countries
Imported Market
Share (%)
Ranked in Order by Countries
Imported Market
Share (%)
Ranked in Order by Countries
Imported Market
Share (%)
Japan 25.00% China 25.35% China 36.06%
Egypt 13.04% Japan 20.05% Japan 13.84%
South Korea 10.64% Turkey 8.69% Turkey 8.75%
United States 7.45% South Korea 6.93% South Korea 6.67%
China 5.64% Syrian Arab Republic
4.71% Syrian Arab Republic
4.46%
TOP 3 48.68% TOP 3 54.09% TOP 3 58.65%
TOP 5 61.76% TOP 5 65.72% TOP 5 69.78%
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MAJOR CHANGE ON IMPORTERS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Japan (Decreased) Market Share: 25.00% 13.84% China (Increased) Market Share: 5.64% 36.06%
WORLDMARKET
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CHINA
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
CHANGE IN IMPORT/EXPORT PATTERNS
27INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
1. Planting areaa) Poor Weather
2. Highest Productivitya) Increased R&Db) Improved Technologyc) Increased Labor Input
3. Different types of gradea) Import Oil Grade (White)b) Export Food Grade (Black)
CONSUMPTION >> PRODUCTION
CHINAECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL
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EXPORTERSOFCHINA
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
POLICY & REGULATION
Exporters 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Market Share (%)
World 124908 210873 168883 249375 387610 48.5
1 Ethiopia 66995 109601 65398 57241 188143 9.8
2 Tanzania 14129 9460 10107 12066 37931 9.6
3 Mozambique 2609 5181 9786 25085 37078 9.0
4 Myanmar 4288 2500 17457 66595 34714 7.2
5 Sudan 19398 54722 13944 14219 27842 4.2
6 India 8557 10097 35820 48138 16234 2.8
No Tariff for African countries
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EXPORTERSOFJAPAN
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
SESAME SEEDS2005 2009
Ranked in Order by Countries
Imported Market Share (%)
Ranked in Order by Countries
Imported Market Share (%)
China 26.23 Nigeria 22.28Nigeria 19.94 Paraguay 16.57
Guatemala 10.61 Burma 9.59Tanzania 7.09 Tanzania 9.10Paraguay 5.56 China 8.02
Burma 4.67 Bolivia 7.48Burkina Faso 4.56 Guatemala 6.56
Ethiopia 4.02 Burkina Faso 6.50Pakistan 3.08 Turkey 3.19Sudan 2.72 Sudan 3.17
30INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
1. No Local Production, but High Consumption of Sesame Seed
2. High quality oil for different usagesa. Food, Cosmetics, Pharmaceutical & Medication
Usage3. Main Exporter: Nigeria
a. High Quality & High Oil Contentb. Minimum Barriers to Trade between Japan & Nigeria
4. POLICY & REGULATIONa. No tariff on sesame seed imports
JAPANREASONS FOR CHANGE
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MARKETANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
World Price ↑
World Supply (Quantity) ↑
Technology
Land Use
Policy
Oil Price
(2008)
World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑
Income Economical Crisis
Awareness of Health
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Real Price - Main Exporters
IndiaSudan (former)EthiopiaNigeriaChina
$/tonne
Year2000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Real Price - Main Importers
ChinaJapanTurkeyRepublic of KoreaSyrian Arab Republic
$/tonne
Year
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TAKE AWAY MASSAGE
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Sesame market is filled with potential; it is definitely a market
that’s worth investing in.
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References
INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
• http://www.atfp.org.ae/English/studies/Sudan-tp/sdntp-sesame2011.pdf• http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx• http://www.ipms-ethiopia.org/content/files/Documents/publications/
MscTheses/FinalThesis_KindieAysheshm.pdf• http://www.unep-unctad.org/cbtf/events/kampala5/day2/23-Sesame
%20The%20under-exploited%20organic%20oil%20seed%20crop%20paper%20Ol.pdf
• http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6-436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=8&hid=119
• http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6-436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=14&hid=119
• http://www.tcboostproject.com/_resources/resource/NEEP%20Sesame%20Market%20Intelligence%20Report.pdf
• http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2012wesp_prerel.pdf