Sergey Pulinets 1,2 1 Space Research Institute, RAS 2 Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics,...
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Transcript of Sergey Pulinets 1,2 1 Space Research Institute, RAS 2 Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics,...
Sergey PulinetsSergey Pulinets1,21,2
11Space Research Institute, RASSpace Research Institute, RAS22Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, RoshydrometFiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Roshydromet
RussiaRussia
*What experimental data and physical hypothesis What experimental data and physical hypothesis stimulated researchstimulated research
*Natural phenomena and anthropogenic effects – Natural phenomena and anthropogenic effects – main contributors to the conceptionmain contributors to the conception
*LAIC model as a wholeLAIC model as a whole
*Coupling with seismologyCoupling with seismology
*Multiparameter synergy – is the main precursorMultiparameter synergy – is the main precursor
*What we lack and what we expect from futureWhat we lack and what we expect from future
Hoppel et al., 1986
King et al., King et al., 19931993 Spivak, Spivak, 20020099
S.A. Pulinets, V.V. Khegai, K.A. Boyarchuk, A.M. Lomonosov, Atmospheric Electric field as a Source of Ionospheric Variability, Physics-Uspekhi, 41, 19981998, No 5, pp. 515-522
Pulinets S. A., K.A.Boyarchuk, V.V.Hegai, V.P.Kim and A.M.Lomonosov, Quasielectrostatic Model of Atmosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, Adv. Space Res., 20002000, 26, No 8, pp.1209-1218
Eresmaa, 2006
Mareev, 2010
Kirkby, 2008
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
170000
180000
190000
200000
IGRF-2005
http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap060814.html
Osprey et al., 2009
Hoppel et al., 1986
Fastrup et al., 2000
Fastrup et al., CLOUD proposal, 2000
Faults activation – permeability changesFaults activation – permeability changesGas discharges including radonGas discharges including radon
emanationemanation
Air ionization by Air ionization by -particles –-particles –product of radon decayproduct of radon decay
Ion-Induced NucleationIon-Induced NucleationHumidity dropHumidity drop
Latent heat releaseLatent heat release
Air temperature growthAir temperature growth
Air conductivity changeAir conductivity change
Atmospheric electricAtmospheric electricfield growthfield growth
Electric field effects Electric field effects within the ionospherewithin the ionosphereEarthquake clouds formationEarthquake clouds formation
Convective ions uplift, charge Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EFseparation, drift in anomalous EF
OLR anomaliesOLR anomalies
Air pressure dropAir pressure drop
Jet-streamsJet-streams
Field-aligned irregularitiesField-aligned irregularities in magnetospherein magnetosphere
VLF noises trapping, VLF noises trapping, cyclotron interactioncyclotron interactionParticle precipitationParticle precipitation
Кобе, ЯпонияКобе, Япония10 янв. 199510 янв. 1995
Копала, МексикаКопала, Мексика14 сент. 199514 сент. 1995
Typical radon variations TurkeyTypical radon variations Turkey
L'Aquila, ItalyL'Aquila, ItalyApril 6, 2009April 6, 2009
Jan 18, 2001
Jan 19, 2001 Jan 20, 2001 Jan 21, 2001 Jan 22, 2001
Jan 17, 2001Gujarat Earthquake (India); Date-Time 2001 01 26
23:40:30 UTC, Location 23.40N 70.32E; Depth 23.6.0 Km; Magnitude 7.7 (USGS NEIC)
Ouzounov and Freund, 2004
Anomalous latent heatDynamics around the time ofM8.8 Southern SumatraEarthquake Sept. 12 2007
Latent heat constant is 2400 J/gAt the same time to increase the temperature of 1 m3 of airby 1 C is necessary only 200 J. It means that condensationcan significantly to increase the air temperature.
Ionization + hydration effectiveness depends on the number of water molecules whichare attached to one ion. For the particle of 3 μ size the relationship of thermal energy released to energy necessary to ionize the air gas molecule (15-20 eV) is near 101088
Basing on 3 different sources: Segovia et al, 2005; Inan et al., 2008, and Spivak, 2008 the mean radon activity can be estimated as 2000 Bq/m3. Each -particle emitted by 222Rn with the average energy of E=5.46 MeV can produce ~ 3105 electron-ion pairs what gives the ions production rate ~6108 m-3s-1.
~ 8 W/m~ 8 W/m22
Param Magnitude Comments
EQ 4.3 x 1018 J - 5.5 x 1017 J M ~ 9.3 earthquake, and 8.7, respectivelyM ~ 9.3 earthquake, and 8.7, respectively
ELH
3.1 x 103.1 x 1019 19 - 8 x 10- 8 x 1018 18 JJ
Latent heat anomalies of ~ 80 WmLatent heat anomalies of ~ 80 Wm-2 -2
persisting for 5 days, over six, 200 km x 200 persisting for 5 days, over six, 200 km x 200 km grids; and ~ 100 Wmkm grids; and ~ 100 Wm-2 -2 persisting for 10 persisting for 10 days, over nine, 200 km x 200 km grids, days, over nine, 200 km x 200 km grids, respectively for the 8.7 and 9.3 associated respectively for the 8.7 and 9.3 associated
anomalies, respectivelyanomalies, respectively
ETS <1.5 x 1017 - 5 x 1017 JKE of tsunami for 30-100 kmKE of tsunami for 30-100 km3 3 displaced displaced water (probably an upper limit)water (probably an upper limit)
EM < 5 x 1019 JFrom yield strength & molecular binding From yield strength & molecular binding forces involved in rupture of landforces involved in rupture of land
ER 6x 1018 J
From change of rotational energy of the From change of rotational energy of the EarthEarth
1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0S e p t e m b e r - O c t o b e r 2 0 0 5
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Dai
ly m
inim
um
rel
ativ
e h
um
idit
yIs
lam
abad
(%
)
M7.6, Oct 8 2005
(a)(a)Relative humidity drop; Relative humidity drop; (b)(b)Surface temperature by the MODIS dataSurface temperature by the MODIS data, , AQUA satelliteAQUA satellite;; (c)(c) Anomalous latent heat fluxAnomalous latent heat flux;;(d)(d)OLR anomaly one week before the seismic shock; OLR anomaly one week before the seismic shock; (e)(e)GPS/TEC GPS/TEC anomalyanomaly
Bondur,2006
Kashmir earthquake October 8, 2005Kashmir earthquake October 8, 2005
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26
0
4
8
Mag
nitu
de
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Rn
[co
unts
]
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1
-0 .2
0
0.2
0.4
Te
mp
chan
ge [C
]
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1
-2
0
2
OLR
cha
nge
, W
/m^2
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1D ays, Jan 1- A pril 30, 2009
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
15000020
0
F ig.2C LR O LR _daytim e
N C E P_A ir_Tem p
R n_Stat_trend_C oppito
R aw _R n_C oppito
S eism ic itty
A ir_Tem p_R ange_R ie ti
+2s igm a_C LR O LR
-2sigm a_C LR O LR
+2sigm a_N C EP _A ir_Tem p
-2sigm a_N C EP_A ir_Tem p
O LR anom aly
N CEP A ir Tem perature
R aw Rn data
S tatistica l trend
Seism icity
A ir Tem p R ange (M AX-M IN )
+2sigma
+2sigma
-2sigma
-2sigma
L’Aquila, ItalyL’Aquila, Italy, 06.04.2009, 06.04.2009
Tertyshnikov et al. 2009
Geophysical Parameter SensorSensor name Spatial Temporal Advantages - DaysSurface temperature (land and
sea)Sat Polar orbit: AVHRR ,
EOS MODIS, ASTER
90 m-5km1-2days long historic record, high spatial resolution
5-10
Meteorological information Geosynchronous: GOES, METEOSAT
1-4km 20min-1h high temporal resolution
4-7
Long Wave Radiation Sat NOAA AVHRR14,14,15,17,18
1 degree Twice per day
Global pre seismic indicator for major events
30-5
Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF)
Sat NCEP 2 degree Once per day
coastal strong earthquakes
15-4
Ionospheric perturbations EM waves (VLF) and plasma
parameters
Sat DEMETER -- 1 day Low atmospheric disturbances
6-2
Space weather Sat NOAA - - Kp DstEQ catalog, Deformation maps
Grd USGS - EQ catalog stress maps
Aerosol contents Grd AERONET Vary Hourly High temporal resolution
7-4
GPS/ Total Electron Content Grd GPS Vary Hourly 5-3 Radon concentrations Grd Turkey, Israel Vary Hourly 14-3Air Temperate/ Relative
HumidityGrd Meteorological networkVary Hourly 14-3
Atmospheric & Ground E field Grd Taiwan, CA, Mexico Vary Hourly 5-2Magnetic filed Grd CA, Israel, Taiwan Vary Hourly 4-2
Courtesy of Anagnastopulos, 2011
OLR anomalyOLR anomaly GPS TEC anomalyGPS TEC anomaly
a = 100.414M – 1.696 km Dobrovolsky et al., 1989 = 100.43M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979
l(M0) = exp(M0 – c) + 2 Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990
= 10 AE1/2 Bowman et al., 1998
Magnitude 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Earthquake preparation zone radius (km)
19.5 52.5 141 380 1022 2754 7413
M7.1- 19M7.1- 19 Oct, 2008; M6.3 – 22Oct, 2008; M6.3 – 22 Oct, 2008Oct, 20081-4 October 2008 5-8 October 2008
M Rand1
Rand2
> 4.8 > 5. > 5.5 > 6.
All 21.3(15498)
23.8(5954)
24.2(6026)
24.7(3502)
25.2(943)
25.7(279)
Sea 23.9(4114)
25.4(2666)
30.5(1797)
30.4(1097)
30.9(301)
31.4(76)
Land 18.7(4956)
21.5(2551)
20.0(2001)
20.5(1157)
21.6(314)
22.7(98)
Ratio between the number of perturbations with T > 2 and the total
number of cases for the 15 days before an EQ
Scholz et al., Science, 1973
PhenomenologyPhenomenology Physical modelPhysical model
Specific Specific featuresfeatures
Precursor maskPrecursor mask
Statistic Statistic validationvalidation
Practical Practical applicationapplication
NCEP surfaceNCEP surface temperaturetemperature
Latent heatLatent heat
OLR AnomalyOLR Anomaly
Ionospheric anomalyIonospheric anomaly
Epicenter positionEpicenter position
Time of earthquake determinationTime of earthquake determination
MM=[log(900)]/0.43 = 6.9=[log(900)]/0.43 = 6.9
Irpinia, ItalyIrpinia, Italy, 23 , 23 Nov. 1980, M6.9Nov. 1980, M6.9
Magnitude estimationMagnitude estimation
= 100.43M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979
*Atmospheric and ionospheric effects are intrinsic factors of earthquake preparation process together with activation of tectonic processes
*LAIC can be used as a foundation for the complex multiparameter technique for the short-term earthquake warning
*Special service should be organized for the global multiparameter monitoring