September09

Most people hang ART on their wall

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ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009

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Elections in Japan and Afghanistan. No contracts between Indonesia and drug companies for HINI vaccine. Catastrophic disaster from the typhoon in Taiwan. Major opposition to President Obama’s healthcare plan. Continuing demonstrations in Iran over election results. Uproar in the UK and US over the release of the Lockerbie bomber.

One wonders what effect this all has on our lives. One can never be sure. However, one thing I have learnt over the years is that you have to look at things positively and be well informed on current issues. Reading through the pages of Asian Tigers magazine, is not only refreshing, its informative and gives expert commentary on what’s happening around the world. Please be sure to visit our website and feel free to send us any relevant questions to our articles that you may have.

Charlie GreeneEditor in Chief

Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Managing EditorMark Wayne

ContributorsChris Champion David Bowden Steve Lunt Jack Dixon Bert Olbes Bruce Curran Michael Wilson Bernardo Villegas

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All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co.

Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

From the Editors Desk

日本和阿富汗大選；印尼與製藥公司的H1N1疫苗談判無果而終；超級颱風重創台灣；奧巴馬總統的醫改計劃遭遇嚴峻挑戰；伊朗大選過後示威不斷；洛克比空難主犯獲釋引發英美社會一片不滿。

這一切對我們的生活影響幾何？答案不得而知。不過，多年來我的一個感觸是，凡事要向好的一面看，與時俱進的精神不可少。閱讀亞洲虎雜誌，不單令人耳目一新，更有專家點評環球時事，讓人增廣見聞，大開眼界。敬候蒞臨亞洲虎網站，歡迎您對我們的文章發表感想與意見。

主編 Charlie Greene 謹啟

編輯寄語

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Contents

The Philippines’ Triadof Dollar Earning Industries - Part 1/3菲律賓創匯三駕馬車-第1/3部作者 / by Bert Olbes

Australia’s EconomicMaster Class澳洲，經濟專業碩士生作者 / by Chris Champion

The Goldman Sach’sSyndrome: Breaking through the BRIC Wall高盛現象: 打破「金磚四國」壁壘作者 / by Jack Dixon

Economic Development for Malaysia’s East Coast馬來西亞東海岸的經濟發展作者/by David Bowden

Features

MalaysiaEconomic Development for the country’s East Coast 24

The Korean Wave「韓流」作者/by Bruce Curran

What Drives the Oil Price?誰動了油價？作者 / by John Dizon

The World’s BiggestCompany Spreads its Wings企業巨無霸再展宏圖作者 / by Michael Wilson

Typhoons & Telecoms颱風與電訊作者 / by Michael Wilson

Visual Decision Making:An Introduction

Indonesia as aModelEmerging Market馬來西亞作者 / by Bernardo Villegas

9

14

16

24

28

33

37

40

20

Departments6

50

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者 / by Chris Champion

Technical Overview of Markets

ATIR Market Report

45

47

On the Cover:

Jakarta

9 Philippine Tourism 28 14The Korean Wave Australia 40 Typhoons & Telecoms

Jakarta

GameNumbersThe

專欄作者/by Chris Champion

Drink Central 酒之都Talk about full circle. For years Hong Kong was the world’s greatest example of laissez-faire economics, a big component of which was its duty free status. Who needs high taxes and who needs import duties when you can just fill in your harbour, foot by foot, and create the world’s most expensive real estate? Not for nothing has Hong Kong been voted number one on the Index of Economic Freedom ever since the index was created in 1995.

談一個有關「周而復始」的話題。多年以來，香港一直是自由經濟的世界典範，這其中免稅制度功不可沒。試想，若能一片片填海造地，不斷造出世界上最昂貴的房地產，誰還需要高稅收，誰還稀罕進口關稅？自從1995年經濟自由度指數誕生以來，香港的經濟自由度始終獨佔鰲頭，這番成績絕非浪得虛名。

It still sits atop the index, but it is no longer a duty free port. Once the British handed back their borrowed place, the reinstalled owners decided such a wealthy community without duty on alcohol and tobacco was just too much of a wasted opportunity. They started small, but you know what bureaucratic bean counters are like. From zero in the 1990s, the duty on wine had leapt to 80 per cent in 2006.


� Asian Tiger News

數字的遊戲

“The last stage of fitting the product to the market is fitting the market to the product.” — Clive James

名人名言 ...

如今香港仍在這個指數上高居榜首，但已難符免稅港之名。英國交還香港主權後，新政府覺得不對如此富裕之地徵收煙酒稅未免可惜。起初不過是小額徵稅，但官僚們自有小算盤，結果酒稅從九十年代的零稅率，一路飆升到2006年的80%。

Then something strange happened. The duty was cut to 40 percent in 2007. And in February 2008, it was abolished. Back to zero.

後來的發展有些匪夷所思：2007年稅率降至40%，2008年2月徹底廢除，一切恢復如初。

There was method in this madness – Hong Kong has just been named the world’s third-biggest trading hub for wine. It’s an industry worth about US$130 million and the now-regular Christie’s International auctions in Hong Kong are where the great wine snobs of the world gather.

此舉背後另有深意 – 不久前香港當選世界第三大葡萄酒貿易中心。這是一個價值1.3億美元的產業，如今經常在香港舉行的佳士得國際拍賣會上，雲集了來自世界各地的葡萄酒擁躉。

How do you beat that? The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has

plans to beat the wine success story with a commodity closer to the Chinese heart, tea. It is talking with tea sellers and buyers to use the city as a hub, citing its port facilities and proximity to China. The global tea industry is worth US$6 billion a year.

China is the world’s biggest tea producer, Russia is the largest importer and Sri Lanka is the top exporter.

不知你有何感想？香港貿易發展局準備把葡萄酒的成功經驗移植到茶葉上，因為飲茶才是中國人的最愛。貿發局正在不遺餘力宣傳香港的港口設施和毗鄰中國的地理優勢，希望憑藉香港的樞紐地位吸引茶商和買家。全球茶產業每年價值高達60億美元，中國是世界頭號產茶國，俄國是最大進口國，斯里蘭卡則是最大出口國。

“We have the infrastructure and cultural sophistication to become a tea hub,” said Raymond Yip, assistant executive director of the Trade Development Council. The Hong Kong plan means a competitive battle with the likes of Dubai, which opened a tea trading hub in 2004, and targets the Indian, Sri Lankan and East African markets.

貿發局助理總裁葉澤恩說：「本港擁有一流基礎設施

和深厚文化氛圍，完全有能力成為茶葉之都。」香港的藍圖可謂與杜拜針鋒相對，後者於2004年開設茶葉貿易中心，把目標鎖定在印度，斯里蘭卡及東非市場。

Tea is central to the Hong Kong diet. The city’s seven million people consumed 1.36 kilograms per head in 2004, almost triple the world average. Across the border, the mainlanders are only drinking 420 grams a year, but this is expected to rise quickly in line with consumer wealth, spelling opportunity for Hong Kong.

茶在港人的飲食中佔據重要地位。2004年，七百萬港人之中，人均飲茶1.36千克，幾近世界平均水平的三倍。反觀中國內地，人均年飲茶量僅420克，不過隨著

國民財富的增長，茶葉消費有望迅速提升，這正是香港的商機所在。

Can it rival wine for elitism, snobbery and prestige? The Sun Sing Tea company in Hong Kong charges US$1,000 for 10 grams of a rare 1900 Pu’er, and such teas are prized both by collectors and

as traditional gifts to important business clients.

A good tea even mellows with age and rises in value.

茶能如紅酒一般成為精英文化，高尚生活和尊貴地位的象徵嗎？香港新星茶莊珍藏的1900年普洱茶，10克就能賣到上千美元，此茶頗受收藏家追捧，亦作為傳統禮品饋贈商業貴客。上等好茶曆久彌香，價格自然水漲船高。

Hone Kong may remain top of the Index of Economic Freedom for a

while yet.看來香港的經濟自由桂

冠還能再戴一陣子。

「讓產品適應市場的最高境界是找到和產品相匹配的市場。」—克里夫·詹姆士

SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Asian Tiger News �

They said...

JOhN MAyNARD KEyNES hAD A WAy Of PuTTING REAL LIfE INTO ECONOMIC

perspective, even early in his career. When in his 20s, he went to Africa, travelling with a friend from Cambridge named Walter Sprott. Keynes and Sprott one day had their shoes cleaned by some native boys, after which Keynes offered a small tip. Sprott protested, suggesting something more generous. Keynes reportedly declined, saying, “I will not be a party to debasing the currency.”

凱恩斯年輕的時候就愛把經濟理論套用到現實生活中。二十多歲時，有次他跟劍橋大學的朋友史普魯特結伴遊歷非洲。一日，二人找當地幾個小童擦鞋，過後凱恩斯付了幾文小費，史普魯特看不過去，覺得該大方一些。不料凱恩斯振振有詞道：「本人不想做貨幣貶值的幫兇。」

Worthless Opinions毫無意義的「民意」

Where would we be without reliable economic modelling based on objective and scientifically managed surveys? According to an American economics professor, it’s a moot point. The question should actually be: where would we be with reliable economic modelling based on objective and scientifically collected data?

若是沒有建立在客觀科學的調查基礎之上的可靠經濟模型，我們將會怎樣？一位美國經濟學教授覺得這是一個偽命題，其實應該這樣問：若是有建立在客觀科學地收集資料基礎之上的可靠經濟模型，我們將會怎樣？

The Guitar Man吉他宗師

Les Paul, who was to the guitar what Yehudi Menuhin and Antonio Stradivari – combined – were to the violin, has died in New York at the age of 94.

It is sad news for all lovers of electronic and jazz guitar music, but it is interesting news for all those involved in an industry which Les Paul created – collecting the guitars he made.

The great Les Paul “standard flame top” instruments from the 1950s have changed hands for more than US$400,000, but now the great man is gone, what will happen to their value? There is only one way their value can go. Hurry.

利斯·保羅之於吉他，正如耶胡迪·梅紐因和安東尼奧·斯特拉蒂瓦里之於小提琴。近日保羅於紐約去世，享年94歲，這對所有電吉他和爵士吉他樂迷不啻是個噩耗，然而有些人卻從中覓得商機 – 收藏保羅所作的吉他。創作於五十年代的那款經典火焰頭吉他，幾經易手，身價已逾40萬美元，而今大師駕鶴西去，傳世遺作又該價值幾何？答案是只漲不跌。欲購從速。|AT|

The unnamed professor doesn’t trust surveys. He reportedly told a colleague, “Economists pay no attention to what people say, only to what they do.”

這位不願透露姓名的教授根本不相信民意調查。據說他曾跟同事講道：「經濟學家不關心人們說什麼，只關心人們做什麼。」

It’s a view shared by the UK’s Royal Statistical Society, which believes that a survey is unreliable unless it has a response rate of more than 65%. This rules out pretty much every survey in the world. It also invalidates the result of every American election.

英國皇家統計學會也是這麼看，其認為民意調查的回應率要超過65%才算可靠。世界上沒有幾個調查能做到這一點。照此衡量，歷屆美國大選的結果都是無效的。

Senior lady using headphones for hearing impaired and voting on touch screen machine

Asian Tiger News�


史上一刻A MOMENT IN hISTORy

菲律賓創匯三駕馬車

作者/by Bert Olbes

There are Three shining, dollar-earning industry stars in the Philippines – and their pronounced, collective existence is deterrence to what might otherwise result in economic contraction, if not the country’s downright financial downfall. The collective triad, broken down, specifically points to the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO – i.e. call centers, medical and legal transcription services, architectural and engineering plans, animation, etc) arena, the Overseas Foreign Workers (OFW) phenomenon and the “boon” in Tourism. In this first part of a three-part series, it is the Tourism industry that will be analyzed, while the next two issues will include analyses of the other two aforementioned sources of valuable and indispensable greenbacks.

菲律賓有三大金光閃閃的創匯產業—三足

鼎立，齊頭並進，即便沒能徹底阻止菲國經濟滑坡，亦有效抵擋了可能出現的經濟

萎縮。「三駕馬車」具體是指業務流程外判（BPO — 即呼叫中心，醫療及法律服務，建築與工程規劃，動漫等），海外勞工（下稱「外勞」）及「大步流星」的旅遊業。本文乃是三部曲中的第一部，將著重分析旅遊業，下兩個系列將分析另外兩個產業，討論他們是如何吸引不可或缺的寶貴美鈔。

The notable increases in recent years (figures to be revealed later in this write-up) of the influx of foreign tourists are impressive indeed, being that for a decade or two before the mid-2000s, the country had been all but mired in a foreign tourism annual influx of a mere million visitors, even dipping to as low as eight to nine hundred thousand. Admittedly, there had been attributable problems relating to less than ideal security conditions accompanied by intermittent travel advisories from Western foreign governments, basic lack of infrastructure in potentially attractive areas outside of major cities – including, but not limited to, good highways, adequate airport

terminals and runways, medical facilities, etc. Such revelations and the year-after-year anemic tourism results were, rightfully so, no less than regrettable.

回望二十世紀中葉前的一二十年，每年到菲律賓的外國旅遊人數僅為百萬人，最低的時候甚至只有八九十萬人，近幾年來菲外國遊客增長明顯（數據詳見後文），令人刮目相看。不可否認，個中原因在於安全狀況不盡人意，外加西方國家政府間或發出的旅行建議，主要城市以外的潛力景點缺乏基本的基礎設施（包括但不限於路況良好的高速公路，足夠的機場候機樓及跑道，醫療設施等）。此等條件之下，旅遊業連年欠收，雖相當遺憾，但情有可原。

Considering that neighboring countries such as Thailand during the same period were already taking in millions of visitors a year, something had to be done. The land formerly known as Siam had been already reaching between eight and 10 million foreign entrants in recent years.

同期泰國等鄰國的年接待遊客量已達數百萬，是時候有所動作了。泰國這片舊稱


Economy �

The Philippines’ Triad of

Dollar EarningIndustriesPart 1: Tourism 第1/3部

Countless malls in the country make the Philippines also a destination for shopping

暹羅的土地，近幾年入境外國人數已達800到1000萬之間。

Action Warranted採取行動

Something had to be done about the Philippines’ dismal shortfall in tourism numbers. What with its 7,107 islands, its more than 36,000 kilometers of coastline and a myriad of other attractions, foreign visitors arriving in the Philippines quickly grasp the natural beauty and endless tropical paradise of sand, sea and lush vegetation; a genuinely warm, hospitable and always smiling people; a literacy rate of over 92 percent (which is among the highest in Asia) the world’s third largest English-speaking country. They see the nation’s convenient and strategic location of less than four hours flying time to and from most regional capitals, as well as international blend of people making a visitor’s experience

an extra special one for every type of foreign visitor or resident – history buffs, shopping aficionados, sports enthusiasts and those who enjoy fine dining and superb nocturnal life and entertainment. Within the city and outside Manila are picturesque provinces that offer rural or secluded options, including action-packed activities of every sort to avail of.

到菲旅遊人數寥寥的慘淡狀況必須採取行動加以改善。菲律賓擁有7,107座島嶼，逾36,000千米的海岸線，數不盡的優美景勝，碧海銀沙，郁樹叢林，讓外國遊客立即感受到秀色天成，廣袤無垠的熱帶天堂氣息；還有笑容滿面的民眾，讓你感受到國民識字率逾92%（亞洲最高），世界第三大英語國家的熱情好客。菲律賓地處戰略要塞，交通便利，乘飛機不到四小時便能往返區內多國首府，來自世界各地的人口相互融合，不論是歷史迷，購物迷，體育迷，抑或是美食饕客，高品質夜生活及娛樂愛好者，每一位遊客或居民都會獲得超凡體驗。走出馬尼拉，之外的省份風景如畫，是體驗鄉村之樂或逃離煩囂的不錯選擇，可在此暢享各類驚險刺激的活動。

Lightning-quick internet facilities, super-developed jet travel and word-of-mouth communications has influenced more and more foreigners into visiting the Philippines. Credit must also be given to aggressive and successful Department of

Tourism (DOT) efforts, with all factors having resulted in the number of tourist arrivals in the Philippines reaching 3.1 million in 2008, bringing in an estimated dollar income of US$4.5 billion. This year’s influx is likely to reach a scaled-down but still respectable estimate of 3.3 million, while 2010’s target is an achievable 3.5 million. Considering that the latter two figures have been revised downwards because of the ongoing global financial crisis (showing signs of reversal?), the preceding figures can be viewed as being even more remarkable.

快如閃電的上網設備，超級發達的飛機航線和良好的口碑吸引越來越多的外國人到菲律賓旅遊。旅遊部（DOT）當然也功不可沒，他們敢作敢為，成績斐然。在所有因素的共同作用下，2008年來菲旅遊人數增至310萬人，預計創收45億美元。今年的遊客入境人數可能減少，但仍會相當可

觀，預計可達330萬人，而2010年的目標是達到350萬人。後兩項數據因持續

的全球金融危機已被調低（拐點跡象已現？），因此上述數據顯得更加可圈可點。

A major component of this is Medical tourism. By 2010, US residents alone seeking various medical services procedures outside the US, from heart procedures to plastic surgery and hip, knee and other bone replacements

and even to fertility difficulties are projected to reach as many as 5 million. And most of these Americans head for Asia for such procedures. Other than the natural caring ways of Filipinos, the

Foreign visitors arriving in the Philippines quickly grasp the natural beauty and endless tropical paradise of sand, sea and lush vegetation...

SEPTEMBER 2009ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

Economy10

Passengers waiting for a domestic flight to Boracay

attraction of having a procedure done here is cost-related. Momentarily, a facelift costs $20,000 plus in the US versus less than $4,000 over here so even with related travel expenses, the cost is considerably less. The wide availability of high-tech facilities and board-certified doctors capable of delivering the same quality procedure as those done in the US is another factor, not to mention packaged holidays to local destinations suited to the patients’ respective recovery periods and conditions.

醫療旅遊是旅遊業的一大組成部份。單就美國居民而言，截至2010年出國就醫的人數預計可達500萬人之多，這些醫療服務包括心臟手術，整形手術，臀部，膝蓋與其他骨骼更換，乃至不孕不育。這些美國人多會前往亞洲進行此類手術。除菲律賓人崇尚自然的護理方式之外，吸引人們到菲律賓做手術的一大原因就是費用。時下在美國做一個整容手術要花費20,000美元以上，而在菲律賓只要不到4,000美元，即使加上相關路費開支，費用也要低出很多。另一個原因則是，醫療機構廣泛配備高科技設備，持證醫生的手術水平與美國並無二致，而適合病患具體康復時間和狀況的當地包價旅遊就自不待言了。

Execution and Implementation落到實處

Concurrently, the Department of Tourism (DOT), led by its dynamo Secretary Ace Durano and in conjunction

with provincial governments and Congressmen, has been placing heavy emphasis in developing required infrastructure in what in the past had been considered far-flung or forgotten destinations. In Central Philippines, Iloilo opened its brand-spanking new airport in 2007, followed by Bacolod in 2008. Zamboanga in Mindanao and Puerto Princesa in Palawan are both lengthening their runways and re-furbishing their terminals, Coron island where the famous and much traveled to El Nido Resort is, will be opening its own airport very shortly, as well San Fernando, La Union. The now-familiar Clark Diosdado Macapagal Airport with its twin, parallel 15,000-foot long runways and modern terminal, is a haven for no-frill airlines with the cheapest fares this side of the universe. Correspondingly, the traffic in the number of arriving and departing flights are steadily increasing.

同時，在精力充沛的部長杜拉瑙（Ace Durano）的帶領下，旅遊部（DOT）聯

合各省政府和國會議員大力推進必要基礎設施的建設，開發先前被認為是偏遠或被遺忘的地區。菲律賓中部的伊洛伊洛於2007年啟用嶄新的機場，2008年巴克洛德緊隨其後。棉蘭老島的三寶顏和巴拉望島的公主港都在加修高速公路並翻新候機樓，聞名遐邇，遊人如織的El Nido Resort所在地科隆島以及拉烏尼翁的聖費爾南多也將很快擁有自己的機場。如今我們所熟悉的克拉克•狄奧斯達多•馬卡帕加爾機場，擁有15,000英呎長的雙平行跑道和現代化的候機樓，這裏是廉價航空公司的大本營，可以享受到最便宜的票價，所以進出港航班也越來越多。

Local Tourism本地旅遊業

In the first six months of 2009, an estimated 3.9 million local tourists made their impact on the industry. Multiply the figure by two to account for all 12 months of the year, and one gets a little less than 8 million local tourists joining the 3.3 million foreign ones expected. And then take into consideration that even local tourists spend pesos derived from a certain percentage of remitted U.S. dollars (official OFW remittances into the Philippines this year are expected to exceed U.S. $17 billion, and this is not even taking into account the unofficial dollars brought into the country in cash and on the persons of arriving passengers). Then factor in the fact that Filipinos are not the greatest of savers for the proverbial “rainy days” (the estimate is that 91 cents of every US$ received in the Philippines is spent, not saved), and one can register justification for the proposition that a certain portion of incoming dollars is being spent by the supposed “local” tourist.

2009年前六個月，本地遊客預計已達390萬人。用這一數據乘以2得出全年12個月的本地遊客人數，其結果略低於800萬，預計還有330萬外國遊客加入進來。考慮到本地遊客所用的比索也有相當一部份來自美元匯款（今年官方菲律賓外勞匯款預計

In the first six months of 2009, an estimated 3.9 million local tourists made their impact on the industry


Economy 11

Local tourists are able to take vacations firstly, because of the proliferation of competition between local airlines

Cebu-Pacific airlines which was first to slash its prices to ridiculously low levels, such that ordinary folk and the moderately growing middle class really began to fly

超過170億美元，這甚至還未計入以現金方式流入或由旅客帶入國內，而未計入官方數據的美元），天性豪爽的菲律賓人似並不屑於「未雨綢繆」這句諺語（據預計，匯入菲國的每一美元中有91美分被花出去，而不是存下來），我們可以認為流入菲律賓的一部份美元是被所謂的「本地」遊客花費了。

Airline and Accommodations Competition航空業和賓館業的競爭

It also operative to bear in mind that many of these local tourists are able to take vacations firstly, because of the proliferation of competition between local airlines that is merely reaching its stride following the de-regulation of the industry by then Pres. Fidel Ramos in the mid-90s. And to give credit where it is due, it was Cebu-Pacific airlines which was first to slash its prices to ridiculously low levels, such that ordinary folk and the moderately growing middle class (in terms of sheer numbers, the growing middle class is really not so “moderate” considering the country’s annual population growth of two percent plus) really began to fly. The age of luxury flying in the Philippines is, in earnest, a thing of the past. People – foreigners and locals alike – flying within the country – want to fly and get to their respective

destinations quickly. Period. “I don’t need a sandwich, and I’ll bring my own bottle water.” After all, the longest flight within the Philippines in a modern jetliner takes less than two hours, and who is going to starve within a scant 120 minutes? Meanwhile, competition within the hotel and hospitality industry has likewise been burgeoning, keeping the price of accommodations and daily sustenance while vacationing at reasonable levels.

航空公司當然記得本地許多遊客首先也要旅遊，由於九十年代中期時任總統的費德爾·拉莫斯取消管治，本地航空公司大

舉發展，競爭加劇。宿務太平洋航空公司亦應記上一功，是他首先將票價降至近乎荒謬的水平，從而使尋常百姓及緩慢壯大的中產階級（就數量而言，鑒於菲國人口年增長率僅為2%出頭，中產階級的壯大速度並不算「緩慢」）亦能坐得起飛機。事實上菲律賓的豪華航班時代已成過往。這些在菲國打「空的」的國內外遊客希望儘快達到目的地，但中途「不需要三明治，我會自己帶瓶水。」畢竟乘坐新式噴氣式客機，國內的最長航班也只需不到兩小時，誰會在短短120分鐘內就饑餓難耐呢？同時，酒店旅館業也蓬勃發展，激烈的競爭將度假的食宿價格維持在合理水平。

As a matter of interest, the number one provincial tourist destination in the Philippines today is Camarines Sur, one of the six Bicol provinces, with 900,000 tourists in the first half of 2009. It boasts of two big draws; the Camarines Sur Watersports Complex (CWC); and, Caramoan, a hilly peninsula in the north-eastern part of the province with deep gorges and a rough, rocky terrain featuring caves, limestone formations, white sandy beaches, an islet lake, a subterranean river and a national park. The last is accessible by public transport

from the town of Caramoan, and local people have established trails in the park for visitors. And number two goes to Cebu, the de facto capital of Central Philippines in the Visayas, with 800,000 visitors for the first six months of this year.

有趣的是，菲律賓如今的頭號省級旅遊目的地是比科爾六省之一南甘馬粦省，2009年上半年遊客人數即達900,000。此地有兩大吸引遊客的景點：南甘馬粦省滑水運動中心（CWC）及該省東北部的多山半島卡拉蒙，這裏有幽深峽谷，疊石岩洞，鐘乳奇峰，銀灘島湖，地下清池與國家公園。從克拉蒙鎮乘坐公共交通工具便能到達國家公園，當地人已在園內修建了遊園小徑。榜眼當屬米沙鄢的宿務，他是菲律賓中部的實際中心，今年前六個月已接待800,000名遊客。

The conclusion is luminous: tourism in the Philippines is here to stay… in fact, to be developed exponentially. Its irresistible compatibility with the country is plain to see, and so are the dollars that increasing numbers of tourist will be bringing in with them. In the next issue, the Overseas Foreign Workers (OFWs) factor, the biggest dollar earner of the three will be the topic of interest

結論顯而易見：菲律賓的旅遊業實際上是在成指數增長。菲國兼容並包的精神和與日俱增的遊客帶來的外匯收益均有目共睹。下一系列將要重點討論的是「三駕馬車」之中最大的創匯來源—海外勞工（外勞）。|AT|


Economy12

SEPTEMBER 2009

14 Economy

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

ausTralia, The land of sun, beaches, beer, sport and economic master classes. The global financial crisis caused little other than some early anxiety in Australia. While the rest of the world plunged into recession, Australia avoided two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

澳洲，是陽光、海灘、啤酒、運動與經濟

課程碩士班的國度。席捲全球的金融危機在澳洲雷聲大、雨點小。當世界各地陷入衰退困境，澳洲卻風景這邊獨好，就連接連兩季負增長的滋味也從未舔嘗。

Australian political leaders initially warned the country to expect the worst recession in history. They got that wrong. They warned Australians to batten the hatches and prepare for economic mayhem. That didn’t happen. Well, we might escape recession and disaster and mayhem, they said, but we can’t escape a big rise in unemployment and all the terrible consequences of that. The latest unemployment figures suggest Australia might escape there too.

澳洲的政治領袖早已警告國民，歷史上最糟糕的衰退時期即將來臨。誰知沒有。他們警告國民嚴防危機並準備應對亂成一鍋粥的經濟局面。這也沒發生。他們說，好吧，就算我們沒有遭遇危機、災難以及大混亂，也肯定難逃失業率激升及其連串

惡劣後果的定數。而最新的失業數據顯示，澳洲還真可能逃過了這一劫。

It has taken until mid-August for the first positive news to emerge elsewhere — Japan, Hong Kong and France have emerged from recession — but Australia has been hearing good news all along, mainly in the form of catastrophes that didn’t happen.

其他地方直到8月中才微露曙光—日本、香港和法國總算可在衰退中歇口氣，但澳洲的好消息卻接連不斷，最重要的是，那些原以為不可避免的災難並未發生。

So how did this mid-sized economy, well-regulated perhaps but no better so than other developed countries, keep its head while all others were losing theirs?

那麼，這個監管較好、但也不優於其他發達國家的中型經濟體，到底為何在到處風雨飄搖之時仍能昂首前行？

For the answer, we’d like you to imagine a classroom of children. Some are naturally smart, most are naturally competitive, and all seek the favour of the One Boy who is bigger than any of them in every way. He is taller, stronger and faster. He behaves like the headmaster’s son. He doesn’t just enforce the playground rules, he creates them. He gets to choose his friends, and discard them as he sees fit. Everyone wants to be his friend.

為探尋這個答案，請你先想像出一間兒童課堂。有些孩子天生機靈，多數則天生好競爭，而他們全體努力取悅一個體魄最大的男孩。他又高又壯，行動迅速。舉手投足有校長公子的派頭。遊戲規則由他制訂執行，友伴任憑他呼來喝去。人人都想做他的朋友。

He has one weakness. Apples. He loves apples and has a limitless appetite for them. High-quality apples aren’t always easy to find, but all the children are constantly looking out for one so they can offer them to the Big One in return for friendship and favours.

但他有一個弱點。蘋果。他喜歡蘋果且對蘋果胃口無限。最優質的蘋果並非隨處可得，而他所有的友伴都不停尋找好的蘋果，以作為對他友誼和恩惠的回贈。

But they know they are all fighting for scraps and second-best status. The best friend of the One Boy is the Little Guy. This guy is not particularly big or rich or even the smartest kid in school. It’s just that his dad owns an orchard. The Little Guy has a lock on all the best apples in the neighbourhood, and the Big One, who has everything else, has to be best friends with the Little Guy because he needs those apples.

但他們心知自己只不過在爭些殘羹剩飯和次要地位。這大個子最好的朋友是一個小傢伙。這傢伙身材不壯，甚至在學校中

AusTrALIA’s Economic Master Class澳洲，經濟專業碩士生

By Chris Champion


Economy 15

也算不上頭等聰明。但他父親擁有一個果場。這個小傢伙把社區中所有最好的蘋果鎖起來，這樣一來，即便那個大個子、以及所有其他人，都不得不成為這個小傢伙的最好朋友，因為他們需要蘋果。

China is the Big One, Australia the Little Guy, and the apples are natural resources, especially from the vast iron ore orchards in the Pilbara region in Australia’s north-west.

中國好比那個大個子，而澳洲就好比小傢伙。蘋果象徵天然資源，尤其是來自澳洲西北部Pilbara地區幅員廣闊的鐵礦石場。

Sir Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics, visited Australia in mid-August and was asked by an Australian Broadcasting Commission journalist to what he ascribed Australia’s success in fighting off recession. Sir Howard hesitated a moment before finding a diplomatic way of giving what was essentially a one-word response: “China.”

倫敦政治經濟學院院長Howard Davies爵士8月中訪問澳洲時曾接受一家澳洲廣播代表團記者的訪問，被問到怎樣描述澳洲擊退危機的成功時，Howard爵士略微遲疑後，便以外交風格提供了言簡意賅到只有一個詞的答案：「中國。」

He was much more flattering in describing Australia’s economy,

contradicting the journalist’s description of “mid-size” by calling it a “leading world economy”. According to the 2008 International Monetary Fund rankings of global economies by GDP, Australia was 14th, barely one-fifth the size of second-ranked Japan. It is part of the G20, but it is a long way from being invited into the G8 or the inner sanctum of the UN Security Council. Why, then would the head of the London School of Economics label the Australian economy as a leading one?

The answer is the same. China.談及澳洲經濟，他絕不乏溢美之辭，相

對於記者稱澳洲為「中型」，他用上「世界領先的經濟體」，體現出極大的反差。根據2009年國際貨幣基金組織對全球經濟體按GDP所作排名，澳洲佔第14位，其經濟總量勉強佔到第二位日本的1/5。它雖是G20的一員，但距離獲邀加入G8或聯合國安理會常任理事國尚路途遙遠。既然如此，倫敦經濟政治學院的領頭人又為何將澳洲經濟視為世界領先之一呢？

答案仍然是—中國。Australia has a giant presence in the

global resources market. In fact, it has two of them: BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. And when the representatives of these global mining titans sit down across the table from Chinese negotiators to discuss

forward iron ore and other raw materials contracts, it is a true meeting of equals. Two Goliaths and no David in sight.

澳洲在世界資源市場上舉足輕重。事實上，它擁有兩個能源巨頭必和必拓（BHP BILLITON）和力拓（Rio Tinto）。當這些世界級採礦巨頭的代表與中國談判者開始談判遠期鐵礦石或其他原材料合約，雙方委實勢均力敵。猶如歌利亞對壘歌利亞，卻不是對壘戴維。

If you had been listening to Australian politicians over the past several months, however, you could be forgiven for failing to recognise any of the above. According to the elected government, Australia has sailed buoyantly through troubled economic waters because of the firm leadership which the government has provided and the strong financial system which the government has overseen.

若你有關注澳洲政治領袖過去幾個月來的言論，而注意不到上面提及的蛛絲馬跡，其實情有可原。民選政府說，澳洲已經從金融海嘯的巨浪中穩定前行，原因是政府提供的堅強領導力和政府監管下穩健的金融體系。

According to the main opposition party, the government’s wasteful spending of billions of dollars in economic stimulus programs has left the country with a mountain of debt which is going to keep everyone poor and miserable for eons. The opposition parties don’t say what they might have done differently.

但主要的反對黨人士說，政府在所謂的經濟刺激計劃上大撒數十億金錢，以致負債累累，使得人民窮困，苦日綿綿。反對黨並未指出除此之外，澳洲政府尚有何可行之策。

It goes on every evening on the main television news programs and talkback forums, the cut and thrust of political point-scoring. We delivered an economic miracle, says the government. You spent money like a mad man with no arms says the opposition.

各大電視新聞節目和對話論壇每晚少不了提及的，是為贏得政治分數而進行的唇槍舌劍。政府說，是我們創造了經濟奇跡。反對黨說，政府打撒金錢，浪費無度。

We have one word for all of them. China.

而無論怎樣，對他們來說，關鍵因素還在於：中國。|AT|

AusTrALIA’s Economic Master Class

like breaking Through a brick wall, South Korea jumped the gun on its Asian trade rivals – most notably Japan – when it recently sealed a comprehensive trade pact with India, one of the four countries comprising the much-touted BRIC Group (the world’s fastest developing economies). Commencing early next year upon The South Korean parliament’s ratification, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will cover tariff reductions, goods and services, investments and competition issues, providing Seoul an advantage in tapping the sub-continent’s market of 1.1 billion people.

如同打破磚牆，韓國最近與名聲響亮的

金磚四國（世界發展速度最快的發展中經濟體）之一的印度達成一份全面貿易協定，搶在了亞洲貿易競爭對手，特別是日本的前頭。經韓國國會批准後，《全面經濟夥伴協定》（CEPA）將於明年初生效，涵蓋減稅，貨物及服務，投資和

競爭等事務，為首爾提供了搶佔11億人口次大陸市場的先機。

After three years of intense negotiations, Indian Commerce Minister Anand Sharma and his Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-Hoon inked the trade deal that will further boost the two-way trade between these economic powerhouses of Asia, which currently stands at a mammoth US$16 billion annually. Under the CEPA, they will have reciprocal reductions in tariffs – 85 percent of Korean exports and 90 percent of India’s overseas sales, within the next decade. In the service sector, India agreed to open its telecom, accounting, medical and advertising markets to South Korean companies, and South Korean banks will also be allowed to open branches in India.

經過三年的激烈談判，印度商務部長Anand Sharma和韓國貿易部長金勇宏簽署此項貿易協定，旨在進一步推動兩大亞洲經濟強國的雙向貿易。印韓年貿易現已達到160億美元的巨額水平。根據CEPA，兩國將在未來10年內實現減免關稅互惠，相

當於韓國出口額的85%和印度境外銷售額的90%。在服務領域，印度承諾向韓國公司開放其電信，審計，醫藥和廣告市場，韓國銀行也將獲准在印度開設分行。

This latest one-upmanship from South Korea comes as no surprise to many business analysts, who already view the aggressive, emerging economic power as a developed country growing at a speed comparable to that of Brazil and Mexico. Moreover, economists are predicting it will overtake Canada by 2025 and Italy by 2035. By 2050, South Korea is expected to equal USA’s GDP per capita of over $90,000, become the second highest among all other economies, and will attain a credit rating of AAA even sooner. And cutting a deal with a member of the BRIC Group certainly points it right smack into that direction.

對眾多商業分析師而言，韓國近來搶佔先機的舉動並不出人意表，他們早已將這個力爭上游的新興經濟強國視為一個發展速度可與巴西和墨西哥媲美的國家。此外，經濟學家預測，韓國將在2025年趕

SEPTEMBER 2009

1� Economy


高盛現象打破「金磚四國」壁壘Breaking through the

BrICWALLWALLWALLTHE GOLDMAN SACHS SYNDROME

作者/ by Jack Dixon

超加拿大，並在2035年趕超意大利。到2050年，韓國有望和美國比肩，實現人均90,000美元的GDP，成為世界排名第二的經濟強國，並可能更早獲得AAA的信用評級。而與金磚國家之一達成協定的確是朝著上述方向努力的明確之舉。

BRIC Unraveled金磚列強But what is the BRIC Group? BRIC is an acronym used in economics to refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China coined in 2001 by the Goldman Sachs Group (GS), a 130-year-old bank holding company based in New York City’s Lower Manhattan area that deals in investment banking, securities services and investment management with its global centers acting as financial advisors and money managers for corporations, governments and wealthy families around the world. A primary dealer in the US Treasury securities market, Goldman Sachs offers its clients mergers and acquisitions advice, underwriting services and asset management, as well as engaging in proprietary trading and private equity deals.

然而金磚組織又是什麼？「金磚四國」是經濟學裏指巴西，俄羅斯，印度和中國的首字母縮拼詞，由130年歷史的老牌金融控股公司高盛集團首次使用。該集團位於紐約下曼哈頓區，從事投行業務，證券服務和投資管理，其全球中心扮演為全球

公司，政府和富裕家族提供金融諮詢和資金管理服務的角色。高盛同時也是美國財政部證券市場的一級自營商，為其客戶提供收購與兼併建議，承銷服務以及資產管理，並參與自營交易和私募交易。

Goldman Sachs has since prominently used the BRIC acronym in its economic forecasts, saying that the four countries are developing so rapidly that their combined economies could eclipse that of the current richest countries of the world all together by 2050, with the four countries already accounting for more than a quarter of the world’s land area and more than 40 percent of the world’s population and holding a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 15.435 trillion dollars – on all counts among the biggest and fastest-

growing emerging markets and would be the largest entity on the global stage. However, Goldman Sachs at the time stopped short of contending that the BRIC Group would organize into an economic bloc or a formal trading association like the European Union, only suggesting strong indications of a “political club or alliance” that will turn “their growing economic power into greater geopolitical clout” mainly to influence the US position on major trade accords or derive political concessions from the US, such as the proposed nuclear cooperation with India. Its prognostication did not come undone.

此後，高盛開始在經濟預報中使用引人矚目的「金磚四國」縮寫，稱這四個國家的經濟發展極為迅速，到2050年，其經濟


Economy 1�

WALLWALLWALLINDIA: Cheap & quality labor India has one of the fastest growing cities

ChINA: producer of manufactured goods

Shanghai World finance Center

總和可令當今世界所有最富裕的國家黯然失色。四國現佔有全世界四分之一土地面積和40%的人口，GDP總和達154,350萬億美元，從任何角度看，都是最大和發展最快的新興市場，並將成為國際舞台上最大的實體。然而，當時高盛並沒有聲稱四國集團將組成一個經濟集團，或類似於歐盟的正式貿易集團，而是強烈暗示這個「政治俱樂部或聯盟」將會把不斷增長的經濟實力轉變成為更大的政治影響，主要是在重要貿易協定上影響美方立場，或從擬議的美印核合作等方面獲得美方的政治妥協。這一預言果然成真。

Pre-GS Forecasts先高盛預測Predating the original Goldman Sachs BRIC thesis, some sources had claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin of Russia spearheaded the initiative for a cooperative coalition among the developing BRIC countries, but offered no evidence to the public of any formal agreement to which all four states are signatories. There are, however, an abundance of proofs on the countries reaching a multitude of bilateral or trilateral agreements such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (member states include Russia and China, associate members include India) and the IBSA Trilateral Forum, which unites Brazil, India, and South Africa in annual dialogues.

巴西總統盧拉，俄羅斯總統普京，中國國家主席胡錦濤以及印度總理辛格均出席峰會，峰會聚焦「改善當前世界經濟環境，討論四國在未來如何更好合作，以及改革金融機構的總體努力」，並進行有關發展中國家如何更好參與全球事務的討論。峰會的聯合公報建議建立一個「多樣化，穩定的和可預測的」新型的全球儲備貨幣，暗示改變美元的「統治地位」，其中俄羅斯對美元的「統治地位」頗有微詞。隨著第二屆峰會明年有望在巴西舉辦，四國集團峰會有可能形成固定機制。

Last May, the ball started to roll. Foreign ministers of the BRIC countries met in Yekaterinburg, Russia, to iron out plans for a historic summit meeting. A week before the scheduled summit, Brazil offered US$10 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the first time it had ever made such a loan, boldly showing that its economic position had changed dramatically since receiving IMF loans itself in the past. Then China and Russia followed suit, announcing plans to invest with the IMF $50 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Finally, last June 16, the BRIC Group held its first summit in Yekaterinburg, jointly calling for the establishment of a “multi-polar world order.” Attended by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, President Hu Jintao of China and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India, the summit focused on “improving the current global economic situation and discussing how the four countries can better work together in the future, as well as a more general push to reform financial institutions,” plus discussions on how developing nations could be better involved in global

affairs. The summit’s joint communiqué recommended the establishment of a new, global reserve currency that is “diversified, stable and predictable,” hinting at a re-direction from the “dominance” of the US dollar, of which Russians have been critical. And it seems that BRIC meetings will become regular affairs as a second summit is expected to be held in Brazil next year.

去年5月，有關行動開始展開。金磚四國外長們在俄羅斯葉卡捷琳堡會面，以策劃一場歷史性的峰會。在峰會前一週，巴西向國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）提供100億美元，作為它首次提供的貸款，大膽顯示它已不再是昔日需要IMF貸款援助的那個巴西。之後中俄分別仿效，宣佈向IMF分別投資500億和100億美元的計劃。2008年6月16日，金磚四國集團在葉卡捷琳堡舉辦第一屆峰會，聯合呼籲建立「多極世界秩序」。在高盛發表原金磚四國論文之前，有消息稱俄羅斯總統普京帶頭提議在發展中的金磚國家之間形成合作聯盟，但並沒有對外提供四國都簽署正式協定的證據。然而已有充足證據說明一些國家正尋求大量雙邊或三邊協定，如上海合作組織（成員國包括俄羅斯和中國，准會員國包括印度）以及團結巴西，印度和南非的年度對話—IBSA三方論壇。

You Scratch My Back…互惠互利，禮尚往來With the BRIC countries, it’s simply a matter of “You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours,” an economic cooperation based on complementary individual strengths that further boost each nation’s

prominence in the world stage. The GS-BRIC thesis entitled

“Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050,” while


Economy1�

Soy farms in Brazil

BRAZIL: Supplier of raw materials such as iron ore and soy

The “Next Eleven (N11)” list of countries – using as criteria macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies and quality of education – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam「11國集團」名單—以宏觀經濟穩定性，政治成熟性，貿易及投資政策開放性和教育質量為標準 —孟加拉國，埃及，印度尼

} 西亞，伊朗，韓國，墨西國，尼日利亞，巴基斯坦，菲律賓，土耳其及越南。

Possessing a significantly higher Growth Environment Score (the GS parameter for long-term sustainability of growth) than all of the BRIC or N-11 countries, a re-unified Korea before 2050, which would raise the country’s population to over 75 million, larger than the UK and France from the

}

recognizing that the four “have changed their political systems to embrace global capitalism,” predicted “China and India, respectively, to be the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services, while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials… a logical next step among the BRICs because Brazil and Russia together form the logical commodity suppliers to India and China.” There is a clear potential for the BRIC to form a powerful economic bloc exclusive of the current membership in such collaborations as the “Group of Eight.” Brazil is outstanding as a supplier of soy and iron ore, while Russia has vast oil and natural gas supplies; India and China, meanwhile, have already started creating prime niches in the services and manufacturing sectors, respectively, in the global arena.

對於金磚國家，用一個建立在個體實力互補基礎上的經濟合作組織進一步提高各國在世界舞台上的聲望，僅僅是一種「互惠互利，禮尚往來」的表現。高盛題為《與金磚四國一起夢想：通往2050年之路》（Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050）的金磚四國論文在認識到四國「改變政治體制以擁抱全球資本主義」的同時，預測「中國和印度將分別成為製成品和服務的全球主要供應國，而巴西與俄羅斯將成為同樣重要的原材料供應國…是金磚四國符合邏輯的下一步，因為巴西和俄羅斯將聯合形成印度和中國邏輯上的商品供應國。」金磚四國具備形成將「八國集團」當前成員國排除在外的強大經濟體的明顯潛力。巴西在供應大豆和鐵礦方面地位顯赫；俄羅斯擁有豐富的石油和天然氣資源；同時印度和中國已分別開始在全球舞台上創建服務和生產領域的主要地位。

The GS thesis documented “how commodities, work, technology, and companies have diffused outward from

the United States across the world.” It noted that, even before the end of the Cold War, the BRIC governments all instituted economic or political reforms to enable themselves viable entries into the world economic scene by simultaneously focusing on education, foreign investment and domestic consumption in order to compete. According to the study, India has the potential to grow the fastest over the next 30 to 50 years because the decline in working age population will happen later for India and Brazil than for Russia and China. In a follow-up report, GS said, “India has 10 of the 30 fastest-growing urban areas in the world and, based on current trends, we estimate a massive 700 million people will move to cities by 2050. This will have significant implications for demand for urban infrastructure, real estate and services.” Thus, South Korea’s trade pact assumes the magnitude of a major coup in economic terms.

高盛的文章記錄了「商品，工作，技術和公司如何從美國向世界各國擴散」。它注意到，即使在冷戰末期，金磚四國政府都著手經濟或政治改革，通過同時重視教育，外商投資和國內消費，參與世界經濟舞台上的競爭。根據該項研究，印度在未來30至50年裏具有最快的發展潛力，原因是印度和巴西的勞動年齡人口減少現象將會遲於俄羅斯和中國而產生。在後續報告中，高盛指出，「在世界發展最快的30個城市地區中，印度占到10個。按照當前趨勢，我們預計，到2050年將會有7億人口遷入城市。這將對城市基礎建設，房地產和服務需求產生深遠影響。」韓國貿易協定的確充分意識到這次經濟大事件的重要性。|AT|

G7. Cheap, skilled labor from the North combined with advanced technology and infrastructure in the South, as well as Korea’s strategic location connecting three economic powers to create an economy larger than the bulk of the G7. 2050之前統一的朝鮮半島將擁有比金磚四國或11四集團國家顯著較高的增長環境分數（高盛長期增長穩定參數）。合併後的國家人口將超過7500萬，高於七國集團中的英國與法國。朝鮮的技術工人與韓國先進的技術和基礎設施相結合，再加上朝鮮半島連接三大經濟強國的戰略地位，將催生一個超過七國集團經濟總體的經濟體。

Post Script 附言Watch out for these Goldman Sachs predictions four years after its 2005 report on the emerging BRIC economies: 請注意高盛在2005年關於新興金磚經濟體報告後的四年內的有關預測：


Economy 19

RuSSIA: Source of oil and natural gas

Natural Gas Plant, Sakharin, Russia

作者/by Bernardo M. Villegas, Ph.D.

SEPTEMBER 2009

20 Economy


馬來西亞

When us PresidenT barack obama visits Indonesia, he will find a country that is increasingly becoming a model for democratic reforms and sustainable human development in Southeast Asia. Indonesia’s economy will register the highest growth in Asia, with the exception of China and India. In fact, in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), it will be the fastest growing at 5 percent in 2009 and 6 percent or even more in 2010 and beyond.

當美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬到訪印尼時，他會發現該國在東南亞的民主改革和可持續人類發展中起著日益重要的模範作用。在亞洲，印尼的經濟增長僅次於中國和印度。印尼將於2009年以5%，於2010年及以後以6%甚至更高的經濟增長率，位居東南亞國家聯盟（簡稱東盟）眾國之首。

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, elected for a second five-year term in early July 2009, recently announced that the budget shortfall will be a very manageable 1.6 percent of GDP in 2010 from 2.5 percent this year. President SBY spent his first term putting Indonesia’s macroeconomic house in order with the help of a very able team of technocrats.

The improvement in the fiscal sector has been accompanied by an equally outstanding performance in infrastructure spending, which has become a prime mover for the economy as a whole.

2009年7月初，總統蘇西洛（Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono）在選舉中獲勝連任，開始為期五年的第二屆任期。他最近宣佈，他極有把握將財政赤字從09年GDP（國內生產總值）的2.5%，減少到2010年GDP的1.6%。在其第一屆任期內，憑藉一個本領高強的技術治國論者團隊，蘇西洛致力整頓印尼的宏觀經濟，改善了國家財政狀況，並在基礎設施建設上交出了同樣驕人的成績，成為國家整體經濟的主要推動力。

The large domestic market of close to 250 million consumers has partly insulated the Indonesian economy from the global meltdown. Although exports have plummeted at double digit rates, consumer spending, which accounts for some two-thirds of the US$433 billion economy, has become the engine of

growth. The July 2009 inflation of 2.71% was a historical low, boosting consumer confidence whose indicator according to Nielsen Company Indonesia is the highest among 28 countries surveyed by the company, as well as being higher than China’s – the world’s fastest growing economy – at 94.4 points in the second quarter of 2009.

印尼擁有近2.5億消費者的龐大國內市場，在某種程度上使得印尼經濟免受全球經濟衰退的影響。儘管出口以超過10%的速率下跌，但在4,330億美元的國家經濟總量中，佔比三分之二的國內消費成為經濟增長的推動引擎。2009年7月，印尼通脹率達到2.71%的歷史最低水平，增強了消

費者的信心，尼爾森印尼公司指出，09年第二季度，在該公司調查的28個國家中，印尼的消費者信心指數為最高的94.4分，比世界上經濟增長最快的國家 — 中國還要更高一籌。

Indonesia as aModel Emerging Market

Indonesia’s economy will register the highest growth in Asia, with the exception of China and India.

A huge domestic market of close to 250 million consumers can enable a reasonably well-run country like Indonesia to attain a GDP growth of � or more percent annually.


Economy 21

It is no surprise then that barely two weeks after the deadly bombings of July 17, 2009, security conditions in Jakarta have returned to normal. The number of visitors that were bombed have re-opened signifying the “back to normal status,” Jakarta Governor Fauzi-Bowo closed the Jakarta Media Crisis Center, the temporary information center used to provide information about the bomb attacks. I can personally attest to the “business as usual” atmosphere in Jakarta and in the entire country. I missed the two bombings by a day.

在2009年7月17日的自殺式炸彈襲擊後不到兩個星期，雅加達的治安不出所料地恢復正常。事件後這裏的遊客人數顯示一切「恢復正常」，而雅加達省長Fauzi-Bowo關閉了為提供炸彈襲擊消息而設立的雅加達媒體危機處理中心。我於兩起炸彈襲擊之後的一天到達雅加達。我本人可以證明，雅加達和印尼全國「照常營業」。

As I started my business trip to Indonesia last July 18, 2009, just a day after the deadly bombings of the Ritz Carlton and Marriott Hotels in Jakarta, I felt a kind of dejavu. Some eight years ago when the World Trade Center was demolished by terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, I saw live on TV the second plane crashing on one of the twin towers. I felt shivers in my spine remembering the two occasions I had given economic briefings in the Windows on the World Restaurant on top of the WTC. Seeing pictures of the results of the blasts in the two Jakarta hotels, I felt history repeating itself. Over the last year or so, I had given economic briefings and joined CEO breakfast forums several times in both the Ritz Carlton and Marriott in Jakarta. I actually had breakfast several times in the Air Langga Restaurant in which several people died during the bombing of July 17, 2009.

2009年7月18日，在雅加達麗嘉酒店和萬豪酒店發生炸彈襲擊之後的一天，我來到印尼公幹，竟然有一種似曾相識的感覺。

大約八年前，2001年9月11日，世貿中心遭到恐怖襲擊而倒塌，我從電視現場直播看到第二架飛機撞擊其中一座雙子塔。想到我曾經兩度在世貿中心頂樓的世界之窗餐廳做經濟簡報，我感到不寒而慄。看到雅加達兩家酒店爆炸後的圖片，我感到歷史在重演。在過去一年左右的時間裏，我在雅加達的麗嘉酒店和萬豪酒店做過經濟簡報，還參加過幾次CEO早餐會。我在Air Langga餐廳吃過幾次早餐，在2009年7月17日的爆炸事件中，有數人在該餐廳喪生。

I never thought even for a moment of canceling the business trip to Jakarta. I was convinced that Indonesia would quickly recover from the bad publicity occasioned by these dastardly acts of some terrorists. Providentially, in the Singapore Air Lines flight I took to

Indonesia, I read an eyewitness account of the bombings in The Straits Times of July 18, 2009. A certain Erik Stern, who was having breakfast at the Air Langga restaurant in Ritz Carlton at the time the second bomb exploded described his harrowing experience. I immediately identified with his very positive attitude towards Indonesia. At the conclusion of his account, he famously remarked: “My second day here – may have been overwhelming but I will definitely come

back for my 41st visit to the city, and especially to Ritz-Carlton. I love the staff here. I urge everyone not to discriminate against Jakarta because those who will lose are those who really lost today, the people of Jakarta.”

但我一刻也沒有考慮過取消雅加達之行。我堅信，印尼能很快地從恐怖分子的卑鄙行徑所造成的負面消息中恢復過來。像是天意安排，在新加坡航空公司的開往雅加達的航班上，我讀到了2009年7月18日的《海峽時報》裏對於爆炸事件的一篇目擊文章。一個叫Erik Stern的人在第二個炸彈爆炸時，正在麗嘉酒店的Air Langga餐廳吃早餐，他在文中描述了自己的慘痛經歷。我立即與他對印尼積極的態度產生了共鳴。在文章的結尾，他寫得相當精彩：「這是我來到這裏的第二天。這一天可能發生了很多事情，但是我肯定會再回來，第41次來到雅加達，特別是麗嘉酒店。我很喜歡這裏的員工。我懇請大家不要排斥雅加達，因為損失的人是今天那些痛失親人的人們，也就是雅加達的人民。」

Model Emerging Market

No terrorist bombings can derail the strong economic growth in the most populous Muslim country in the world.

PHOTOGRAPH © DAVE LUMENTA

PHOTOGRAPH © DOOLE


Economy22

Echoing the words of Mr. Stern I will go back to Jakarta many more times in the future, even daring to stay at the Ritz Carlton, because Indonesia under the leadership of President Yudhoyono (called SBY by Indonesians) has put together some outstanding economic and political reforms that will make sustainable economic development possible in the coming twenty years. No terrorist bombings can derail the strong economic growth in the most populous Muslim country in the world. As I went around in heavy traffic in both Jakarta and Surabaya, visiting some of the shopping complexes in both cities, I reconfirmed what I had seen in previous visits: that the huge domestic market of close to 250 million consumers can enable a reasonably well-run country like Indonesia to attain a GDP growth of 6 or more percent annually. Already, Indonesia has demonstrated during this ongoing global economic crisis that it should be grouped together with such emerging markets such as China, India, and Vietnam that have managed to grow at anywhere from 4 to 8 percent while the tiger economies of the past in the region, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, are experiencing precipitous declines in their GDPs.

Stern的話在我腦際迴響，將來我也會多次重返雅加達，甚至敢於下榻麗嘉酒店，因為在蘇西洛（印尼人稱他為SBY）的領導下，印尼進行了卓越的經濟和政治改革，能夠在未來20年裏保持經濟的可持續發展。任何恐怖炸彈襲擊也不能破壞這個世界上穆斯林人口最多的國家強勁的經濟增長勢頭。行走在雅加達和泗水車水馬龍的街道上，經過這兩座城市的一些購物中心後，令我對自己前幾次到訪的所見所聞更加肯定：擁有2.5億消費者的龐大國內市場能促使像印尼這樣管理有序的國家獲得每年6%，甚或更高的GDP增長。在當前的全球經濟危機當中，印尼已經顯示其應當被歸入中國，印度和越南等新興市場之一員，它們在困境中仍創造出4%到8%的經濟增長，而該地區過去的經濟四小龍如新加坡，台灣和香港的GDP均已大幅度下降。

Just a day before the bombings, Bloomberg came out with a column of William Pesek reporting on the new acronym that may take the place of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which was coined by Jim

O’Neill of Goldman Sachs eight years ago. Nicholas Cashmore, Jakarta-based CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets economist, has contributed a new phrase to describe the emerging markets that are taking the lead as the world emerges from the worst global recession since the Second World War. Brazil and Russia have not avoided large declines in their GDPs this year. Indonesia’s growth of at least 5 percent this year may warrant its being grouped with China and India into what Cashmore calls “Chindonesia.” As Pesek remarked, there is a compelling logic to expand the “Chindia” concept to the Southeast Asian giant, Indonesia. The three countries together generated economic activity equal to 44 percent of the US economy. As Cashmore computed, “Chindonesia” will have a total GDP that will surpass $10 trillion by 2020, even assuming modest growth rates of just 5 to 6 percent.

爆炸事件的前一天，彭博財經刊出一個由William Pesek執筆的專欄。他寫道，八年前，高盛的Jim O’Neill創造了「金磚四國」BRIC這個新詞，它由是巴西，俄羅斯，印度和中國的英文首字母組合而成。如今一個新的首字母縮略詞有可能取而代之。總部在雅加達的里昂證券亞太

It has a large and young population, an increasingly educated labor force, vast natural resources, and an enlightened leadership...

市場經濟學家Nicholas Cashmore創造了一個新詞，用於形容那些自二戰後從最嚴重的全球經濟衰退中先行復甦的新興市場。今年，巴西和俄羅斯也逃脫不了GDP大幅減少的厄運。而今年印尼至少5%的增長率確保它與中國和印度並肩，形成Cashmore所謂的「中國 – 印度 – 印尼鐵三角（Chindonesia）」。正如Pesek所說，將「中印大同（Chindia）」這個概念延伸到印尼這個東南亞巨人其實極有道理。這三個國家的經濟活動總量相當於美國經濟的44%。正如Cashmore所計算的，即使僅按5%到6%的保守增長率計算，「中國 – 印度 – 印尼鐵三角」的GDP總和都將於2020年超過10萬億美元。

Indonesia is a perfect example of the emerging markets that will dominate the global economy in the coming twenty years. It has a large and young population, an increasingly educated labor force, vast natural resources, and an enlightened leadership under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose creditable performance in his first term won for him a resounding victory of about 60 percent in the recent elections. Newsweek in its July 20, 2009 issue had very positive words for President SBY: “When he first took office five years ago, violent separatists threatened Indonesia’s

PHOTOGRAPH © NESTLE CSV

The President, especially with the help of his Minister of Finance, was able to successfully prosecute some very high officials, including the father of his son-in-law.

integrity, homegrown terrorists sowed chaos, piracy thrived in the Strait of Malacca, and the economy was still reeling from the devastating 1998 Asian crisis. Today, Indonesia is the most vibrant and stable democracy in the region and one of the few economies predicted to grow by more than 4 percent in 2009.”

印尼是即將於未來20年支配新興市場的一個完美例子。印尼擁有龐大的年青人口，勞動力受教育程度越來越高，自然資源豐富，蘇西洛總統的領導班子也非常開明。蘇西洛在其第一屆任期內成績傑出，令他在近期的選舉中以60%的選票大獲全勝。2009年7月20日的《新聞週刊》對蘇西洛總統作出了很高的評價：「五年前他接任時，分裂分子威脅破壞印尼的完整，國內的恐怖分子製造事端，馬六甲海峽的海盜猖獗，而國家經濟還未從1998年破壞力強大的亞洲經濟危機中完全恢復。而今天，印尼是東南亞最生機勃勃，最穩定的民主國家，也是為數不多的，預計在2009年經濟增長仍能超過4%的國家之一。」

As a citizen of a country still struggling to fight corruption at the highest levels of Government, I am impressed with the accomplishments of SBY in cleaning up what used to be one of the most corrupt governments in the world

as regularly tracked by Transparency International. The President, especially with the help of his Minister of Finance, was able to successfully prosecute some very high officials, including the father of his son-in-law. In the many private briefings and CEO forums in which I have participated, I have heard nothing but praises for the improving governance under President SBY. Indonesian entrepreneurs and corporate executives are the ones most bullish about the future of the economy, especially in such sectors as real estate, mining, infrastructure, consumer products, telecommunications, energy, finance, education and information technology.

印尼曾是世界上政府最腐敗的國家之一，定期接受「透明國際」的追蹤調查，至今仍在打擊最高層政府的腐敗現象。作為一個印尼公民，我對蘇西洛總統在打擊腐敗方面所取得的驕人成績印象深刻。蘇西洛總統在財政部長等人的幫助下，成功檢控了一些政府高層人士，包括他女婿的父親。在我參加的多個私人簡報會和CEO論壇上，我聽到的都是對蘇西洛總統領導下，印尼管治大有進步的讚揚。印尼的企業家和公司主管對未來的經濟最為看好，尤其在房地產，採礦，基礎設施，消費產品，電信，能源，金融，教育和信息技術方面。

Indonesia is very well positioned in two possible growth triangles that can evolve among the emerging markets of Asia. First, there is Chindonesia. These three countries will add more than 170 million people to their work forces over the next decade in contrast with the declining populations of the European Union, Japan and Russia. The other growth triangle to which Indonesia can belong is what Jesus Zulueta of Asia Select, an executive search firm operating in Southeast Asia, calls the V.I.P. of the ASEAN--Vietnam, Indonesia and the

Philippines. These three countries have more than 400 million consumers among themselves and are very rich in natural resources. They can be the food basket for resource-poor countries like China and its Northeast Asian neighbors of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. All three VIP countries are also growing from levels of per capita incomes of about U.S. $3,000 in purchasing power terms to about $5,000 in the next twenty years. This is the range of per capita income at which demand for consumer goods and services grow exponentially at double-digit rates. As Pesek remarked: “Talk about a no-brainer for investors.” Despite some turbulence that is inevitable in a fledgling democracy, I am sure that it will be business as usual in Indonesia for those who want to take advantage of the many investment opportunities in this young and populous Archipelago of 14,000 islands. For comments, my email address is [email protected].

印尼的地理位置得天獨厚，位於能夠從亞洲新興市場中崛起的兩個增長三角中。首先是「中國 – 印度 – 印尼鐵三角」。相較歐盟，日本和俄羅斯不斷縮減的人口，這三個國家將於未來十年增加1.7億的勞動人口。東南亞一家獵頭公司Asia Select的Jesus Zulueta將越南，印尼和菲律賓稱為東盟的VIP，而印尼另一個可歸屬的增長三角正是東盟的VIP。這三個國家擁有超過4億的消費者，天然資源豐富，可能成為資源匱乏國家，包括中國及其東北亞鄰國及地區日本，韓國和台灣的資源籃子。從購買力角度看，未來的20年，這三個國家都將從3,000美元人均收入水平發展到5,000美元水平，帶動消費品和服務需求的雙位數增長。正如Pesek所說：「投資者根本不用動腦」。儘管這個民主國家才剛起步，一些動盪在所難免，但我堅信，對於想在這個人口稠密，由14,000個島嶼組成的年輕群島國家獲利的人，印尼將一切如常。對本文如有評論，請發電郵至：[email protected]. |AT|


Economy 23

While malaysia’s Prime minisTer and Finance Minister Dato’ Sri Najib Razak has set his economic sights on 6% growth this year, the nation’s sleepy East Coast is destined for a little catch up with the more industrially advanced West Coast.

儘管馬來西亞總理和財政部長納吉布

（Najib）將今年國家經濟發展目標設定在6%的水平，但該國不活躍的東海岸地區還是註定要落後於工業較發達的西海岸地區。

While the East Coast has been the centre for Malaysia’s petroleum industry for several decades, it is also considered the cultural heartland of the nation. The East Coast has lagged behind the West Coast in its industrial and infrastructure development. Despite the pace of life in the east being much slower and a place where traditional values reign supreme, the government has earmarked several major economic projects for the area with a vision to make the East Coast a developed region by 2020.

過去數十年來，東海岸不僅是馬來西亞石油工業的中心，也被視為國家的文化中心地帶。它在工業和基礎設施發展方面落後於西海岸。東部的生活節奏相對較慢且傳統觀念至上，而政府已在該地區啟動了幾個大型經濟項目，希望將東岸在2020年之前發展成為發達地區。

Planned development is to be introduced under the East Coast

Economic Region (ECER). This region covers an area of almost 67,000km2

and comprises the states of Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan and the district of Mersing in the state of Johor. This represents 50% of Peninsular or West Malaysia and extends along the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) nucleus of the ECER; a strip 25km wide by 140km long from Pekan in the south to Kertih in the north.

根據「東海岸經濟區」（ECER）安排，東岸將引入規劃式發展。該地區佔地67,000平方公里，包括彭亨，丁加奴，吉蘭丹以及柔佛州的豐盛港區，占半島或西馬

50%的人口，並延伸至東海岸經濟特區的中心；是一塊從南至北，自根北到克特長140公里，寬25公里的帶狀區域。

The ECER has set out to move the East Coast economy up the value change, to raise the capacity for knowledge and innovation, to improve the standard and sustainability of life and, to address persistent socio-economic inequalities, constructively and positively. To achieve this the government has earmarked RM112 (US$28) billion for expenditure under the ECER plan until 2020. In all there are 189 projects that could generate an additional 550,000 jobs and benefit

Economic Development for

SEPTEMBER 2009

24 Economy


the four million Malaysians who live in the area.

東海岸經濟區旨在提升東岸經濟在產業鏈上的位置，提高其知識與創新能力，改善生活標準和可持續性，並以建設性和積極的態度解決由來已久的社會經濟不平等問題。為達到這一目的，政府已啟動東海岸經濟區計劃，在2020年前斥資1120億馬幣（280億美元），投入189個項目，創造55萬個就業機會，令生活在該地區的400萬馬來西亞人受益。

Based upon a Master Plan developed in October 2007 by the Malaysian national oil company, PETRONAS the major clusters of economic development

are tourism, manufacturing, oil, gas and petrochemicals, agriculture and education. The area is seen as a strategic gateway to the markets of Asia Pacific with direct access to Thailand, China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines.

在馬亞西亞國家石油公司PETRONAS於2007年10月制定的《總體規劃》基礎上，經濟發展的主要領域為旅遊業，製造業，石油，天然氣，化工，農業與教育。它們被視為直接通往亞太市場，包括泰國，中國，日本，韓國和菲律賓的戰略要道。

Special privileges will be provided within the SEZ of the ECER to accelerate development. Unique privileges

and exclusive incentives will be accorded to high-impact projects within the integrated free zone of the SEZ. The economy here will move from labour-intensive industries to high technology, knowledge-based activities and the service sector and, it is planned, to create 50% of all employment and 80% of the total economic output for the ECER.

東海岸經濟區內的經濟特區將被賦予特權以促進發展。經濟特區內集成自由區的重量級項目將獲得特殊權利和專門優惠。該地區經濟將從勞動密集型產業向高科技，知識導向型活動以及服務領域轉變，這些領域預計將創造東海岸經濟區50%的就業和80%的經濟產出。

While tourism is reasonably well-established in the area the destination depends a lot on its natural assets of tranquil islands, coral reefs, mangrove estuaries and long stretches of mostly untouched beaches. The lifestyle is laidback and while this appeals to some sectors of the tourism industry, other tourists require sophisticated tourism facilities and infrastructure. The Master Plan has identified six distinct tourism sectors of coastal tourism, urban tourism, cultural and heritage tourism, ecotourism, cross-border tourism (with neighbouring southern Thailand) and sustainable island tourism. One of the major integrated resort developments will focus on Mersing and the offshore islands including the best known and most popular island of Tioman.

當地旅遊業發展較好，主要依託於寧靜的島嶼，珊瑚礁，海欖雌河口和漫長而保存完好的海灘，人民生活悠游自在。這裏的生活方式或許適合旅遊業的部分領域，但其他遊客要求當地具備成熟的旅遊設施和基礎建設。《總體規劃》列出了六大重要的旅遊領域：海岸旅遊，城市旅遊，文化和遺產旅遊，生態旅遊，邊界旅遊（與泰國南部交界地區）以及可持續島嶼旅遊。主要的旅遊勝地綜合開發項目之一，將會集中於柔佛州和近海島嶼，包括著名且最受歡迎的刁曼島。

There is more talk of limiting carrying capacity for some of the pristine islands and their surrounding coral reefs. Homestay programmes to experience authentic village life are important as is the creation of hallmark events to lure high-end tourists. Heritage has always been important on the East Coast as it

經濟發展

馬來西亞東海岸的


Economy 25

作者/by: David Bowden

Coast Expressway. Kuala Terengganu Airport has attained international status while Kuantan and Kota Bharu will be upgraded to regional airports. Seaports in Kemaman, Kuantan and Kertih will be enhanced to cater to the needs of future investors and studies will be carried out to investigate the potential of linking the West Coast rail network to the East Coast. The Kuantan Port City integrated development for example, is expected to increase port tonnage by more than threefold from currently 9.4 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes by 2020.

交通基礎設施對任何發展地區都至關重要，政府已承諾升級中央樞紐道路（連接最北部吉蘭丹州瓜拉吉賴與穿越西海岸的南北高速路）和東海岸高速路。丁加奴機場已獲得國際地位，而關丹和哥打巴魯機場將被升級為地區機場。甘馬挽，關丹和克特海港也將進一步升級，以滿足未來的投資者需求。對連接西海岸鐵路網絡和新海岸潛力的研究即將啟動。其中關丹港城市綜合發展有望將港口噸位提升三倍以上，即從現在的940萬噸提升至2020年的3,000萬噸。

Already RM24 (US$6.6) billion of investment have been committed to the ECER. It is the government’s hope that this investment will give the region a competitive edge in becoming a regional, world-class investment opportunity.

器，木雕和宋革（songket）編織等全國手工業的故鄉。政府將在促進發展和保護東岸文化特徵和脆弱的生態體統之間尋求一條獨特的道路。

Transportation infrastructure is important in any growth area and already the government has committed to the upgrading of the Central Spine Road (connecting Kuala Krai in the northernmost state of Kelantan to the North South Expressway running the length of the West Coast) and, the East

is the home of the nation’s handicraft industries such as batik, silverware, wood-carving and songket weaving. The government will have to follow a delicate path that promotes development while preserving the East Coast’s unique culture identity and its fragile ecosystems.

當前，關於限制一些原始島嶼及周邊珊瑚礁接待能力的討論越來越多。體驗真正鄉村生活的民居接待節目成為吸引高端遊客的招牌活動。文化遺產對東岸地區向來非常重要，因為當地是蠟紡印花布，銀

Kota Bahru

Pengkalan Kubor

Kuala Lipis

Kuala Rompin

PekanTemerloh/Mentakab

Kuantan

Chukai

Kertih

Dungun

Kuala Terengganu

Bukit Bunga

Kota Bharu

Kuala BesutRantau Panjang

Pengkalan Kubor

PAHANG

TERENGGANU

KELANTAN

Kuala Lipis

Bentong

Gua Musang

Mersing


Economy26

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Strong Basic Education and Training

Conducive Working and Living Environment

Stable Political & Social Environment

Supporting Institutions (Education, R&D, Government, Private and Social Institutions,Trade Associations, Communication and Coordination System)

By 2020, Gross Domestic Product is projected to grow by an average annual rate of 7.2 per cent in the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) with a per capita GDP in the region expected to more than double to RM13,510 in 2020, indicating the move toward a more knowledge and technology driven economy. Source: ECER Master Plan & ECER Investor Guide

東海岸經濟區已獲得240億馬幣（66億美元）的投資。政府希望這筆投資能令該地區獲得競爭優勢，成為一個區域性，世界級的投資機會。

Increasing foreign investment into the country is one of the government’s priorities. Following the announcement of liberalisation of the economy since becoming Prime Minister, Najib’s popularity amongst the electorate has rapidly increased. The country has also received positive feedback from the international business community who, it would appear, are more favourably disposed to investing in the country.

增加外商投資向來是政府的要務之一。自當選總理並宣佈經濟自由化後，納吉布在選區的支持率迅速上升。馬來西亞也獲得國際商業社會的積極反饋，商界人士看來更加樂於到馬來投資。

Deputy Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir has been reported as saying many foreign companies have contacted his department to express interest in investing in Malaysia since the Prime Minister recently made the announcement to open up the economy.

據報道，國際貿易和工業副部長Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir表示，自從總理近期宣佈開放經濟後，眾多外國公司已與國際貿

易和工業部接觸，表示有興趣到馬來西亞投資。

While it is still early days, there are signs that the economy is improving slowly. Industrial output in June showed a slower decline due to improved exports for electrical and electronic products. However, it was still a decline and year-on-year the Industrial Production Index decreased 9.6 % compared to June 2008 figures. Reporting these figures, the Statistics Department stated that in June, manufacturing dropped 13.1% while the electrical and electronics products posted a 2.5% increase.

復甦儘管仍處初期階段，但已有跡象表明經濟正緩慢好轉。6月工業產出顯示由於電器和電子產品出口情況改善，經濟下降放緩。但工業產出指數與2008年6月相比仍下降9.6%。統計部6月表示，生產總值下降13.1%，而電器和電子產品生產增加2.5%.。

The minister along with his government hope that the liberalisation of the economy will assist local companies to become more competitive. At the same time, the people of the East Coast are looking to the development of the ECER to ensure that an equitable share of the national economic development comes their way.

總理和政府均希望經濟自由化能幫助公

司更具競爭力。同時，東海岸人民期待東海岸經濟區發展，以確保他們能夠分享到國家經濟發展成果的應有份額。|AT|

For More Information Contact: A one-stop centre has been established by the East Coast Region Development Council (www.acerdc.com.my) to fast-track investment applications and approvals. 如需瞭解更多資料，請聯繫提供快速投資申請和批准服務的一站式服務中心——東海岸地區發展委員會（www.acerdc.com.my）。


Economy 2�

Kuala Terengganu City Project

JuTTing ouT like a gianT claW from mainland Asia, with the Yellow Sea to its left, Korea lies due west of Japan. Sitting some 35 degrees north of the equator the country enjoys a climate tuned to a long chilly winter. If its snow sports one is after then this is a good place to go.

韓國地處朝鮮半島南端，西臨黃海，東望

日本，猶如一支巨爪從亞洲大陸伸向海洋。它的大部份國土位於北緯35度上下，冬季寒冷漫長。對於喜好雪地運動的人們來說，這裏是個不錯的地方。

On the economic front Korea is a powerhouse in several major industries, including steel, electronics, car manufacturing, construction, textiles and footwear, armaments, chemicals and shipbuilding. Standards of living are high relative to most surrounding Asian countries. The price of good infrastructure and a highly developed economy is counter-balanced by a high cost of living.

經濟方面，韓國在鋼鐵，電子，汽車製造，建築，紡織及鞋類，軍備，化工及造船業等許多

重要行業實力不凡。較之於大多數亞洲鄰國，韓國的生活水準相對優越。雖然有完善的基建設施和高度發達的經濟，但這些優勢卻被高昂的生活成本所抵銷。

Going South 南方的樂土In the past decade, the middle group in Korean society, modestly wealthy and prone to warmer climes, have discovered another land that offers them some of the answers for their insatiable tastes and suits their pocket books. Not only are

they attracted to a much more affordable cost of living, but the very low price of labour relative to their homeland has been a deciding factor for many. Throw in cheaper property rental

levels, a tropical climate, beaches galore, and a 4 hour flight home and you have a paradise on tap – the Philippines.

過去十年，韓國社會中那些手頭寬裕又愛溫暖氣候的中產階層，發現了一方既適合他們的興致，又適合他們的銀包的樂土。在那裏，吸引他們的不僅是較低的生活費用，還有遠比本土低廉的勞工成本，這正是促使韓國人南遷的決定因素。便宜的房租，宜人的熱帶氣候，風景如畫的海灘，加上離家不過4個小時的航程，一個夢幻天堂近在眼前—菲律賓。

The Courting Game 島國的殷勤The Philippines has leapt lock stock and two smoking barrels into enticing foreign visitors, and has had massive success in drawing in tourists from around the world, and has increasingly focused on visitors from Asia. The Korean fraternity have picked up the ball and bought in wholeheartedly to the Philippine game. In fact they have taken the package several steps further, seen opportunity

SEPTEMBER 2009

28 Economy


KoreanThe

Wave「韓流」

作者/by Bruce Curran

A group of Korean ladies spending holidays in the Philippines

and set up shop. They have flexed their influence, and enthusiastically laid down roots and set up home all over these tropical islands. The Korean population in the Philippines now has a significant influence in a surprising number of places.

菲律賓一直不遺餘力地招徠外國遊客，成功吸引了全世界的旅行者前來觀光，現在她正加大力度吸引來自亞洲的遊客。韓國聯誼會領受了這份好意，決心情定菲律賓。實際上，他們已捷足先登，四處尋找機遇，開設店鋪。他們的影響力不斷滲透，並滿懷熱情地在這片熱帶島嶼上落地生根，安家落戶。如今，旅居菲律賓的韓國人正顯著影響著這裏的大部份地區。

Economic Enticements 經濟的誘餌Like many countries, the Philippines is keen to attract overseas investment. Employment in the country is lean for the masses. The Philippines have wound themselves into the “Overseas Filipino Worker” (OFW) syndrome, with more than a total of 11 million of its people working and living abroad, and underpinning a healthy economy by sending in cash remittances for families, home purchase and operating businesses. This is all very well for bringing in some

16 billion dollars annually, but does not exactly support their Christian motto of “families that pray together stay together”- in fact the system in some ways undermines the unity of family obligations.

同許多國家一樣，菲律賓亦熱衷於吸引外資。國內就業機會匱乏，令其身陷「菲律賓海外勞工」（菲律賓外勞）綜合症，該國共有逾1100萬人在國外工作生活，勞工寄往家中的匯款用於生活開支，購房置業和經營業務，支撐菲律賓的經濟健康運行。每年從海外寄回約160億美元固然可喜，但這與「一家人共同祈禱，共同生活」（families that pray together stay together）的基督教箴言卻背道而馳—實際上，這種體制在一定程度上破壞了不離不棄，相互扶持的家庭氛圍。

The Business Outsourcing Processing (BPO) industry is creating millions of jobs in the new world order, but there is plenty of room for other businesses on home soil.

在新的世界秩序中，業務流程外判(BPO)產業創造了數之不盡的就業機會，其他業務在國內亦有充份的發展潛力。

For one, The Philippine Retirement

Authority has a massive machine for attracting foreigners to reside here, spend their money here, and also encourages these migrants to set up businesses here. In fact there is a whole web of supportive immigration packages that bring in the alien masses.

菲律賓退休署設有龐大的機構，專門吸引海外人士來此定居消費，同時鼓勵移民創業。實際上，菲律賓有一整套吸引外籍人士的鼓勵移民計劃。

The Korean factor 韓國人的因素The Koreans have taken all these packages and utilised them to their advantage, and cleverly woven them together to suit their own ends. The result is a quoted figure of 1.2 million Koreans

now living in the Philippines. This is more than 1% of the total population in the country, and its influence is quite remarkable in a surprising number of places around the country.

韓國人將這些計劃照單全收，為其所用，並將這些計劃巧妙地組織在一起，滿足自身的需求。菲律賓現居住著120萬韓國人，佔該國總人口的1%以上，深深地影

響著菲律賓的大部份地區。

The Korean Trail韓國人的足跡The language barrier has an overriding effect. The Koreans

are not versed in the English language and must rely on those they meet.

But their formula is a simple one – stick to your own Kind.

語言不通是最大的障礙。韓國人並不精通英語，只能依賴自己所碰到的人。

他們解決之道卻非常簡單—與韓國人為伍。

In Seoul a family hops on a Korean plane, arrives in Manila to be picked up by a Korean travel agent, stays in a Korean hotel, eats at a Korean restaurant, and goes diving with Korean scuba instructors.

一家人在首爾登上韓國飛機，抵達馬尼拉時由韓國旅行社接機，在韓國酒店住宿，去韓國餐廳用餐，潛水時由韓國教練指導。

PHOTOGRAPH © LEALEx


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The result is a quoted figure of 1.2 million Koreans now living in the Philippines. This is more than 1% of the total population in the country, and its influence is quite remarkable...

Koreans love the warm climate in the country. They find the cost of vacation trips in the Philippines quite cheap.

Korean students in St. Paul College, Pasig city


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It may be a perfect formula for them, but it has its pitfalls. In fact it has created an undercurrent of uneasiness within the local population. The Filipinos are a people friendly beyond compare, and love to mix with foreigners at any opportunity. Their americanised twang slang Phil-speak-English, gives them opportunity to talk in an understood version of a widely spoken language, and they warm to the simplest communication. However, the Koreans, even though they have had a long standing bond with the USA, have not had the need (till now) to master English.

這對他們可能是種完美的解決之道，但並非萬事大吉。事實上，這已引起本地居民的不安情緒。菲律賓人十分熱情好客，一有機會就喜歡跟外國人打交道。他們能說一口帶有菲律賓口音的美式英語，這使他們有機會使用一種廣泛通用語言進行溝通。他們對這種最簡單的交流亦樂此不疲。儘管韓國人與美國之間的聯繫由來已久，但他們（迄今為止）並沒有要掌握英語的需求。

English Speak 說英語In order to ‘fit-in’ and ‘to be accepted’ by the Filipinos, the Koreans are grasping the bull by the horns, and everywhere you go, the younger generation are learning English. English language schools are popping up everywhere, and internet lessons are a popular way of getting in on the act.

為了「融入菲律賓」並受到菲律賓人的「接納」，韓國人迎難而上，不論去往何處，你都能見到年輕的一代正在學習英語。英語學校如雨後春筍般地興起，互聯網教程作為一種學習英語的手段亦頗受歡迎。

There has been a whole new wave of Korean migration, all on the back of speaking the English.

有了英語作為後盾，韓國湧現出一股全新的移民潮。

Major Projects 大型項目Speaking in Seoul earlier this year the President Macapagal Arroyo pushed

the Philippines as “the best value for investment in the region” and urged Korean businessmen to invest in the country. She particularly pointed at the opportunities in mining, energy, bio-fuels, technology, tourism and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO).

今年年初，阿羅約總統在首爾講話時表示，菲律賓將力爭成為「本地區最具投資價值」的國家，並鼓勵韓國企業家到菲律賓投資。她特別指出採礦，能源，生物燃料，科技，旅遊及業務流程外判(BPO)領域蘊藏著巨大機遇。

Korea’s Hanjin Heavy Industries and Samsung have both already heavily invested in the Philippines. Last May 30th, two Korean electric companies pledged to invest US$200 million in wind power projects in the Philippine islands. These serious intentions bode well for the economy of the future.

韓國的韓進重工及三星均已大力投資菲律賓。去年5月30日，兩家韓國電子公司承諾對菲律賓群島的風力項目投資2億美元。這些鄭重的投資意向預示著良好的經濟前景。

On the Ground: Subic Bay, Zambales Province 建設: 三描禮示省蘇比克灣This major centre of commerce lies a 2 hour drive north of Manila, with good roads all the way.

這個主要的商務中心距馬尼拉北部兩小時的車程，沿途公路設施完善發達。

In Subic Bay, over the past few years the Koreans have set up a major shipyard.


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PHOTOGRAPH © NIKKOLIM01

hanjin Shipyard in Subic Bay has produced the biggest ship ever built in the Philippines consigned by a Greek Logistics company

M/V Argolikos built by hanjin Shipyard Subic displaces 41,000 tons and was built at a cost of $�0 million uS.

In their early days in the Philippines the Korean company ‘Hanjin’ built roads and bridges in the deep south, in Mindanao. They liked what they saw, and Subic Bay was a major attraction.

過去幾年，韓國人已在蘇比克灣設立大型船廠。韓國公司「韓進」在進駐菲律賓的早期，就在南方腹地棉蘭老島修路建橋。他們喜愛那裏的景致，而蘇比克灣正是一個主要的旅遊勝地。

The story begins with Shell. They previously set up a yard in Subic to build part of the platform for the Malampaya Gas Field that lies to the west of Palawan Island. This gas field is now a major contributor to the future fuel supplies of the Philippines.

殼牌公司在此首開先河。該公司先在蘇比克開闢了一塊場地，以便在巴拉望島西面建設平台開發Malampaya天然氣田。如今這個天然氣田已成為菲律賓未來燃料供給的主要來源。

When they left, Hanjin Heavy Industries Inc. (ShipBuilding) seized the opportunity and took their space, and after building a sophisticated shipyard, they have been building world class large ships. They ultimately intend to employ 15,000 in and around the shipyard operation, which brings in a lot of peripheral benefits to the local community.

殼牌公司前腳離開，韓進重工（造船）便抓住機會，緊跟而上，在此建好一個精良的造船廠之後，他們便開始製造世界級的大型船隻。他們最終打算聘用15,000名員工，在船廠及附近工作，這將為當地社

區帶來許多周邊效益。It may well become the 3rd largest

shipyard in Asia, but its quick rise to operation has caused concerns about safety standards, and this element is still very much a critical issue.

該公司有望躋身於亞洲第三大造船廠，但規模的快速擴張亦引發對安全標準的憂慮，而安全是一個極其重要的問題。

Busuanga Island, Palawan Province巴拉望省布蘇安加島The 128 islands of the Calamian Group lie well north of Palawan Island. The main islands of Busuanga, Coron and Culion are surrounded by islands of great beauty, and great tourist potential. There is a major project underway to reconstruct and redevelop the primary town of Coron.

擁有128個島嶼的卡拉綿群島位於巴拉望島以北。布桑加，科隆島及卡裏奧等主要島嶼被美輪美奐的潛在旅遊勝地所圍繞。現已展開大型項目對科隆鎮進行重建及開發。

Korean money has been pouring in to develop the airport facilities, with the intention for international jet aircraft to land directly from overseas, and avoid the laborious turnaround in Manila. Needless to say, Korean resort consortiums are in on the act, and flights from Korea will fill their rooms.

韓國已投入大量資金建造機場設施，以便海外的國際噴氣式飛機可直接抵達，而避免在馬尼拉轉機。當然，韓國度假財團

肯定會紛紛參與，韓國的航班因此會佔有一席之地。

Cebu City, Cebu Province 宿務省宿務市 Known as the central capital of the Philippines, international flights have been landing here for decades, and around specific enclaves of the city Korean businesses thrive, providing all levels of consumerism from food to karaoke bars and places to rest Korean heads.

宿務市是菲律賓中部的首府，國際航班往來於此已有數十年之久，毗鄰之處韓國人的生意十分紅火，從餐飲到KTV會所，酒吧以及其他款待韓國人的設施，應有盡有。

And the Rest 其他方面Baguio is brim full of thriving Korean groups. High school graduations have been known to have as many as three quarters of the students as Koreans. Bacolod has a burgeoning Korean student population. Several other thriving centres are absorbing this Korean Wave.

碧瑤市的韓國人口激增。高中畢業生有四分之三是韓國學生。巴科洛市的韓國學生人數亦節節攀升。許多其他繁華的中心城市亦積極吸納這股「韓流」。

The Capital 首都Makati City, in the heart of Manila, has well established Korean communities, with grocery stores, health spas, churches, Karaoke outlets, eateries, banks, and a weekly 20-page magazine entirely written in Korean.


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馬卡迪市位於馬尼拉的中心，建有設備完善的韓式社區，雜貨店，健康水療中心，教堂，KTV會所，食肆，銀行等一應俱全，還出版有20頁的韓文週刊。

Malate is a known and well established yuppie and trendy area, and now has a significant Korean enclave serving its people with all the delights of a night out on the town.

Malate設施完善，是深受雅皮士青睞的時尚地區，此處現成為鎮上民眾夜晚消遣娛樂的主要聚集地。

Billiards is the number one game amongst Filipinos, with more world champions than any other sport. Korean owned billiard halls are even on tap these days.

檯球是菲國人最熱衷的一項體育運動，為該國贏得最多的世界冠軍頭銜。如今，韓國人開設的檯球館隨處可見。

The Wave「韓流」If its Kimshi based food products you are after, Korean barbeque, a Korean song on karaoke, or just a night out in mini-Korea, there are several places you can go here in the Philippines, especially if you can’t spare the time or money to fly to Seoul, the true heart of Korea.

如果想品嘗泡菜，韓國燒烤，或在卡拉OK點唱韓國歌曲，或是夜遊迷你韓國城，菲律賓有很多好去處，尤其是倘無時間或財力前往真正的韓國首都首爾，菲律

賓絕對是不二之選。Add in the Korean tourist numbers,

tack on expatriate immigration, students and businessmen and over 700,000 Koreans trooped into the Philippines in the last 12 months. Definitively here are a people committed to these lush tropical island; a people who are on the crest of a new wave cutting swathes in the economy; in many ways living somewhat isolated within their own fringe as an alien society; a people nevertheless very much here to stay.

過去 1 2 個月共有逾 7 0 0 , 0 0 0 韓國人進入菲律賓，其中包括遊客，外籍移民，學生及商人。他們儼然成了這片熱帶島嶼上的一個族群；一個將在新一輪浪潮中大顯身手的族群；一個生活範圍相對隔絕的外來族群；一個勢必在此紮根的族群。

There must be sense in this Korean Wave, and the rest of the world should take note. The Philippines is riding on the crest of a mild but vibrant economy, which has recently caught up, somehow, with the rest of Asia during these murky times. The tide might be out, but waves of opportunity are still rolling along within the Republic of the Philippines.

「韓流」湧動必有原因，世界其他國家也該有所察覺。事實上，菲律賓的經濟發展溫和平穩，充滿生機，在亞洲其他各國深陷泥潭之際，菲律賓在某種程度上已有迎頭趕上之勢。這股「韓潮」或將退卻，但菲律賓仍將處處湧現機遇。 |AT|

Korean stores are common in the Philippines specially where there are a lot of other Korean establishments such as restaurants

Economy 33


donald rumsfeld, The haPless organiser of George W Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, won’t go down in history for many successes. But he hit the spot with his sharp observation that the trickiest things in life were the “unknown unknowns” - the things we don’t even know that we don’t know. Those are the things, he said, that make the “known knowns” and the “known unknowns” seem simple by comparison.

曾幫助喬治布殊於2003年發動伊拉克戰爭的拉姆斯菲爾德

（Donald Rumsfeld）雖然略欠運氣，也不大可能流芳青史，但他對「未知的未知」—我們甚至不知道自己不知的事情，卻觀察入微，並認為，這「未知的未知」，便是我們生活中最難以捉摸的部分。他指出，相較這一部分，「已知的已知」和「已知的未知」顯然簡單得多。

Nowhere is this more true today than in the oil market. ‘Expert bodies’ like the International Energy Agency have been getting it all quite hideously wrong in the last year or so. And there is no sign yet that they have learned anything from their mistakes.

對於時下的原油市場，這句話再正確不過。國際能源機構（IEA）等「專家團體」在過去一年來對油價的預測錯誤百出，

並且沒有跡象顯示他們已經吃一塹，長一智。

Ghastly forecasts預測失准

Is that too cruel? Let’s consider, for instance, the time in June 2008 when the IEA declared that the abnormally high oil price of US$139 per barrel was “entirely justified” by the market fundamentals of the day. Oil producers’ output had slowed sharply, the IEA said, and nobody was investing enough in new facilities to ease the supply squeeze. At the same time, the unstoppable demand from Asia was making sky-high oil prices essential “to choke off demand [and] to balance the market”.

這是否太過殘酷？想想看，一個例子是，2008年7月，IEA宣佈高達139美元每桶的油價是當時的市場基本面「完全合理」的決

作者/by Michael Wilson

What DrivestheOil Price

Donald Rumsfeld

誰動了油價？

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定，並聲言，油產量已大幅下降，對新設施的投資嚴重不足，因此未能緩解供應的緊張。同時，亞洲勢不可擋的需求使得高油價成為「遏制需求（及）平衡市場的關鍵。」

Bankers Goldman Sachs went further. Oil prices would reach $200 by December, they said, and we had better get used to the coming “super-spike”. Meanwhile Gazprom, the Russian oil and gas giant, opted for $250. Soaring oil prices would plunge the world into an inflationary spiral, they insisted. We were all doomed.

高盛更加離譜。他們預測，2008年12月，油價將會升到每桶200美元，我們最好習慣即將到來的「超高油價」。同時，俄羅斯石油及燃氣巨頭Gazprom提出了每桶250美元的價格預期。他們堅稱，持續攀升的油價會將全世界拖入通貨膨脹的循環。大家命該如此。

So what actually happened? Well, the subprime banking crisis struck, the global economy slumped, and the oil price plummeted to end 2008 at just $38 - less than a fifth of what the “experts” had forecast six months earlier. Oops.

但事實呢？銀行次貸危機出現，全球經濟下滑，2008年底的油價低至每桶38美元，不到6個月前「專家」們所預測價格的1/5。

And after that? In January this year, as West Texas Intermediate crude hit $30 a barrel, the IEA declared that it would drop to $25 or even $20 before recovering. Bankers Merrill Lynch agreed, insisting that China’s economy was likely to go into recession during early 2009 as it cut its oil imports. But instead, as we now know, China carried on growing by 7-8% a year, inflation turned into deflation, and WTI soared

to $70 by early June, where it was still looking firm by the end of July.

再以後呢？09年1月，西德州中質油（West Texas Intermediate crude）甚至探底至每桶30美元。IEA宣佈，在復蘇前，價格可能下降到每桶25美元甚至20美元。美林銀行對此表示同意，認為隨著中國減少原油進口，其經濟將會於2009年初轉入衰退。但事實上，眾所周之，中國經濟的年增長率仍保持在7%-8%，通脹轉為通縮，WTI價格於6月初回升至每桶70美元，直至7月底仍然堅挺。

There, then, is the evidence for the prosecution. Neither the IEA nor the world’s finest analysts have even the slightest clue about oil prices or which way they’re heading. To find out why, let’s go back to Mr Rumsfeld.

結果證明機構預測自打嘴巴。IEA也好，全世界最出色的分析師也罷，都對油價摸不著頭腦，更別提預測走勢。為瞭解原因，讓我們回到拉姆斯菲爾德這裏。

Rumsfeld’s unfathomables 拉姆斯菲爾德之惑

There are, of course, “known unknowns” as well as “unknown unknowns” in play here. And the first, obviously, is the level and direction of future demand.

既然有「未知的未知」，必定有「已知的未知」。很明顯地，我們首要的「已知的未知」，就是未來需求的水平和方向。

It’s easy enough to take a view on where the Western world’s oil needs are heading, now that so many countries are trying to reduce their consumption. But when it comes to China and India - two countries which are largely outside the IEA’s experience - we simply don’t have the metrics to assess the situation. We have no idea, for instance, how many cars will be sold in Asia, or whether price resistance will set in as oil prices rise - or, if so, when and where?

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WTI Crude Oil - Daily Posted Price from Aug’08 to Aug’09

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要預測西方國家石油需求的趨勢相當簡單，眼見這許多國家已經開始減少石油消耗。但說到中國和印度—這兩個IEA並無太多經驗的國家，我們委實難以得知IEA怎樣能夠評估它們的現狀。我們不知道的事情包括亞洲的轎車銷量，或價格阻力會否在油價升高時出現，以及，如果這真的發生，它會發生在何時？何地？

The second “known unknown” is the amount of recoverable petroleum still left in the earth, and how long it will last. Every time we think we’ve finally located the last of the world’s reserves, somebody invents a way of extracting oil from old and supposedly exhausted wells. And every time the petroleum price rises, it becomes more financially viable to squeeze oil from alternatives like oil shale or tar sands, or even from plants like the jatropha bush, which yields something like kerosene when you crush it. Those reserves just keep on growing…

第二個「已知的未知」是地球上可開採汽油的數量，以及能夠持續多久。每次我們認為，我們終於能找到世界最後的儲藏，總有人會發明從老舊或已經乾枯的油井中找到油的方法。而且每次油價攀升

時，從油葉岩或油砂，甚至青桐木等其他途徑採油的方式就顯得更加經濟。青桐木，當你擠壓它的時候，它會分泌出煤油一樣的物質。這些另類的儲量持續上升…

For what it’s worth, The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 declared in June that proven worldwide oil reserves totalled 1,258 billion barrels, excluding Canada’s oil sands - which was enough, it said, to supply the world for 42 years at 2008 production rates. At 2008 production rates? How likely is that?

對於油價，《BP世界能源統計回顧》（BP Statistical

The second “known unknown” is the amount of recoverable

petroleum still left in the earth, and how long it will last.

Economy36


Review of World Energy）於2009 年6月宣稱已探明除加拿大油砂以外的全球油儲量共為12,580億桶。同時稱，按照2008年的生產率，加拿大油砂足以供給全世界42年的需求。按照2008年的生產率？可能性到底有多大？

The third unknown - a proper “unknown unknown” - is fear. In mid-2008, when the IEA made its shocking price forecast, it said that the OPEC producing nations had barely 5% spare capacity left - equivalent to about 2 million barrels per day. This meant that the loss of even a small production capacity like Iraq’s would plunge the global supply/demand balance into crisis. And if a giant like Iran ever stopped selling, it would be utterly catastrophic.

第三個未知—一個理所當然的「未知的未知」是恐懼。2008年中，當IEA作出令人稱奇的價格預測時，它表示OPEC產油國僅有5%的產能剩餘—約等於每天200萬桶。這意味著，即便少了小到像伊拉克那麼小的油產量，都會令全球供需平衡陷入危機。如果像伊朗這樣的巨頭停止賣油，那便絕對是大難臨頭。

That threat has not gone away in 2009. But probably a more terrifying “unknown unknown” is the derivatives trade. Never believe that current supply

and demand are the only factors driving the oil price. Instead, accept that volatile oil prices are down to the oil trader’s simple fear of not being able to meet his essential needs on a fixed future date. He simply has to weigh up what others are offering at the time, and pay the same.

這個威脅的烏雲直到2009年方才散去。但，另一個更加可怖的「未知的未知」，可能是衍生貿易。千萬別相信現在的供需是推動油價的唯一因素。事實上，我們要接受的是：油價之所以起落無常，是由於原油交易商對不能在一個固定的未來日期達到其關鍵需要而產生的簡單恐懼。他只需要衡量其他人到時會開出的價格，然後付出同樣的價格。

But who are those ‘others’? Increasingly, the market players include hedge fund managers who trade futures contracts short-term with no intention of ever taking physical delivery. Instead, they view the contracts as pure speculative instruments. They are allowed to use either long or short strategies - and in near-total secrecy, because many report to nobody at all. They currently control maybe a trillion dollars of investments - a lot of it in commodities. And they are incredibly fickle, often pulling out at a moment’s notice...

但，誰又是「其他人」？市場的推動因素中包括短線交易石油期貨的對沖基金經理，他們並無獲得實際貨物的任何意向，只是將這些合約當成最純粹的投機工具。他們獲准利用長期或短期策略—並且幾乎完全保密，因為許多基金經理並不需要向任何人報告。他們現在控制著約有10,000億美元的投資，其中許多是商品。這些人反復無常，時常在一眨眼間離開牌桌。

This abstract game-playing wouldn’t be a problem if the real world of oil trading could somehow distance itself from it. The problem is that, because a derivatives contract really can turn into an order for a physical shipment of oil, the distorted price it may command will effectively determine the price that real people pay for real shipments of oil, and so everybody has to work with it. Even though the hedgies could liquidate their positions and disappear without warning! Last year’s panicky projections of $149 oil, $200 oil and $20 oil probably owe more to the hedgies’ short-termism than to anything else.

如果石油交易的真實世界能與期貨市場保持一點距離，這個抽象的遊戲就不成問題。問題是，由於衍生合約能夠變成一張石油的提貨訂單，其要求的離譜價格就能有效地決定真實人群為真實貨物付出的價格，因此每個人都不得不跟上節拍。即使如此，這些對沖基金還是可能連吭都不吭一聲便清空頭吋，然後人間蒸發！去年每桶149美元，200美元，20美元的恐怖預測可能主要是由於對沖基金的短期行為，而非任何其他因素而造成。

That’s the bad news. But the hedge funds have had a lousy time of it in the last year, and their influence is waning. Many have lost enormous sums on the boom-and-bust pattern of last summer’s commodities market, and some have gone bust. America’s banking “stress tests” have forced many funds to repatriate their cash to the US - and the general effect has been a lessening of the stressful hype around commodity prices. Will it stay that way? Let’s hope so.

以上是壞消息。但對沖基金08年的日子也不好過，他們的影響力也在減小，其中許多已經在08年夏天期貨市場的泡沫升騰與破碎中損失慘重。美國金融業的「壓力測試」已經迫使眾多基金將現金重新帶入美國，而整體的影響令商品價格抽筋般沖高的情況已經減少。現狀能維持嗎？但願如此。|AT|

china is already Well uP on the world’s top podium of leading corporations. Industrial Bank of China, China Mobile, Petrochina and China Petroleum have all been firmly established in the global top ten companies for some years now, where they rub shoulders with Microsoft, Wal-Mart, Shell and Gazprom. But Petrochina secured the biggest prize of all in May when its shares were listed for the first time in Shanghai. Thanks to a huge rush of new interest from investors who had previously been

unable to buy the shares in Hong Kong or in New York, the company’s market capitalisation soared past Exxon Mobil to reach US$336 billion. Petrochina was finally the world’s biggest company. And it still is.

中國，早已在世界領先企業的大舞台上佔

據一席之地。近年的全球十大企業排名中，工商銀行，中移動，中石油和中石化總能穩佔鼇頭，與微軟，沃爾瑪，殼牌和俄羅斯天然氣公司平起平坐。以上中國公司中，中石油於09年5月在上海交易所上

市，市值高居首位。之前無法在香港或紐約交易所購買其股票的眾多投資者蜂擁而上，將中石油市值推高至3,360美元，遠超埃克森美孚，成為全球第一大公司，並穩坐頭把交椅至今。

That isn’t so surprising, perhaps, given that China is now the world’s third largest economy. Having overtaken Germany earlier this year, and with a growth rate of 7% or more, the general expectation is that China will outgrow even Japan by next year. Petrochina and its domestic rivals, including CNOOC

The World’s Biggest Company

sPrEADs ITs WINGs

PHOTOGRAPH © KAJ17

作者/ by Michael Wilson


Economy 37

企業巨無霸再展宏圖

and Sinopec, are working to supply a national petroleum requirement for around 7 million barrels per day (b/d) - which is roughly three times as much as in 1990, according to the International Energy Agency. By 2030, the Agency adds, demand will rise to 16.5 million b/d of crude oil. That will be more than the entire national output of Saudi Arabia.

由於中國經濟現居世界第三，中石油成為世界第一大企業也就不足為奇。09年初，中國以7％，乃至更高的增長率超越德國，因此普遍預期中國將會在2010年超過日本。中石油和中海油，中石化等國內對手正努力滿足中國的石油需求。根據國際能源機構（IEA）數據，中國國內的石油需求高達每天700萬桶，約為1990年的三倍。IEA預計，2030年的原油需求將達每天1,650萬桶，沙特全國的產量也還不敷使用。

That’s all well and good. But there are still some important hurdles for China’s oil refiners to clear. They are hamstrung by government price controls which mean, in effect, that any sharp rise in the oil price can tip them into sudden deficit. Petrochina’s turnover rose by an impressive 28% during calendar 2008, reaching RMB 1.07 trillion - but its net profits actually fell by 22% to RMB 114 billion (when measured according to international accounting standards), because the mid-year peak of US$150 per barrel had left its refinery revenues unable to keep pace with the soaring cost of feedstocks.

情況看來不錯，但中國油企仍有一些關鍵難題需要解決。石油價格依然牢牢控制在政府手中，這意味著，油價一個急升，就可能令油企出現赤字。08年，中石油銷售額激增28％，高達10,700億元，而淨利潤卻下滑22％至1,140億元（根據國際會計標準計算）。原因是08年年中油價曾飆升至每桶150美元，導致油企的煉油收入無法跟上原油價格高漲的步伐。

Things have been looking rather better this year. The oil price has risen only to US$70, and the authorities had allowed three retail price increases by the end of July. The company announced in mid-July that its first-half profits had been ‘at record levels’ - although its media office declined to give precise figures - and we know that the refining budget for 2009 has been increased by 6%. But Petrochina still needs to find new resources - and fast. Most of them will have to come from abroad.

今年形式已經有所好轉。油價僅上升到70美元，政府也允許在7月底之前調高三種油品的零售價格。中石油在7月中旬宣佈上半年利潤「創紀錄」，但其發言人卻拒絕提供準確數字。據我們所知，2009年的煉油預算上升6％。但中石油短期內仍需發現

新的資源，而這些資源的大部分只能從海外補充。

The Push for New Capacity 產能告急

In theory, that isn’t a problem. Petrochina has a vast US$13 billion cash pile at present, and relatively few debts, and its management rightly reckons

that this is an excellent time to seize what Chairman Jiang Jiemin has called “the historic opportunities” presented by the global economic downturn.

理論上這不成問題。中石油手握多達130億美元的現金儲備，負債極少，管理層也明智地認為，當前全球經濟低迷，正是抓住前任主席江澤民稱為「歷史機會」的大好時機。

In May, PetroChina agreed to buy a 45% stake in the Singapore Petroleum Company, for a reputed $2.2 billion. In June it was revealed that the company was interested in a Scottish chemicals

Petrochina and its domestic rivals, including CNOOC and Sinopec, are working to supply a national petroleum requirement for around 7 million barrels per day (b/d)


Economy3�

PetroChina CEO Chairman Jiang Jiemin has called “the historic opportunities” presented by the global economic downturn.

refinery at Grangemouth. And it has also restarted the RMB 40 billion construction of a vast catalytic cracker and ethylene project in Sichuan, which was suspended after last year’s earthquakes. The cracker alone will be big enough to handle a third of China’s current needs.

今年5月，中石油同意以22億美元收購新加坡石油公司45％的股份。6月，有消息稱，中石油有意收購位於Grangemouth的一家蘇格蘭化工廠，同時開始重啟一座位於四川省的大型催化裂化及乙烯項目。該項目投資高達400億人民幣，由於去年發生的地震，曾一度暫停。預計該裂化廠的產能將足以滿足中國國內現時三分之一的需求。

The trouble is that most of these new operations are upstream refinery businesses, whereas China’s most basic need is for crude oil. The IEA reckons that the country’s overall domestic petroleum production is likely to peak at 3.9 million b/d in 2012 - of which less than 800,000 b/d will come from the historic Daqing oil reserves, which are now in steep decline. In effect, half of China’s oil already needs to be imported, and before long it’ll be 70% or more. Unless companies like Petrochina can own and control their own crude oil resources, they will continue to get squeezed whenever the crude price rises.

問題是，這些新項目多數屬於上游的煉油業務，而中國最基本的需求在於原油。IEA認為，2012年，中國國內石油產量有望達到頂峰，即每天390萬桶，其中只有不到80萬桶是來自歷史上舉足輕重的大慶油田，但該油田的儲量現正直線下降。事實上，中國早已有一半以上的原油依賴進口，不久的將來，這個比重將超過70％。對於油企，除非它們能夠像中石油一樣擁有並控制石油資源，否則，一旦原油價格上漲，它們必將受到極大的衝擊。

Unfortunately, getting hold of new mineral resources has not been easy. In 2005 Petrochina’s rival CNOOC was thwarted by the US government, on largely political grounds, when it tried to buy into the Unocal oil company. This year’s strained relations with Australia

over Chinalco’s attempt to buy Tio Tinto have shown that it is not enough for China simply to have the money and the determination to buy overseas rights.

只可惜搶佔新的礦產資源殊不容易。2005年，中石油的對手中海油在企圖收購優尼科石油時，主要由於政治原因而遭到美國政府的掣肘。今年中國鋁業企圖收購力拓，亦導致中國與澳大利亞關係緊張。以上事實說明，只有金錢和收購海外權益的決心，並不足夠。

So Petrochina, CNOOC and the rest have been adopting different strategies. In June, a subsidiary of the rival Sinopec announced a US$9 billion plan to buy Addax Petroleum, a Swiss company with drilling rights in Nigeria, Iraq and Gabon. Last December, another Sinopec subsidiary paid $2 billion for Tanganyika Oil, an African producer with a mere 23,000 b/d of output. The challenge for Petrochina will be to acquire more of its own resources from abroad - and, ideally,

without raising too much of an outcry from the Western powers.

因此，中石油，中海油以及其他同行開始採取不同的策略。今年6月，中石化的一家子公司宣佈，它正計劃用90億美元收購瑞士公司Addax Petroleum，從而取得後者在尼日利亞，伊拉克和加蓬的開採權。08年12月，中石化的另一家子公司用20億美元購入非洲採油商Tanganyika Oil，其日產量僅23,000桶。中石油面臨的挑戰，

就是將更多的海外資源納入囊中，同時盡可能不因此而引起西方國家過多的反對聲音。

Will that be easy? Perhaps not. China’s bids for other African mineral resources, such as copper and cobalt interests in Congo, have already ruffled government feathers in Washington. Plans to buy more copper rights in Zambia are reminding the West of how badly it has neglected Africa itself in the past. It will take all of China’s new-found confidence to stand up to entrenched opposition over oil. But the stakes are too high to risk failure.

過程能否順利？很難說。在剛果，中國計劃收購黃銅和鈷等其他非洲礦產資源，已經引起華盛頓的關注。而在贊比亞，中國取得更多黃銅開採權的計劃，更給予西方國家一個提醒：他們對非洲資源太過疏忽。中國需要全力以赴，才能抗衡阻擋其爭奪石油的頑固力量。中國對此押上重注，不容有失。|AT|


Economy 39

Addax Petroleum refinery in Obangue, Gabon (West Africa)

unfortunately, getting hold of new mineral resources has not been easy. In 2005 Petrochina’s rival CNOOC was thwarted by the us government, on largely political grounds...

SEPTEMBER 2009

40 Economy


TyPhoon morakoT has Wreaked havoc across Southeast Asia, killing hundreds of people in Taiwan, China and the Philippines. And as the world’s worst typhoon in half a century claimed so many lives and destroyed countless homes, its violence was also causing serious unseen problems out at sea. Underwater landslides damaged seven underwater fiber-optic cables linking several Asian nations, so Internet connections and international voice calls were disrupted across the region and telecommunications operators scrambled to restore their services.

颱風莫拉克在東南亞造成了巨大破壞，台灣，中國和菲律賓有數百人喪生。這一場半個世紀以來世界上最嚴重的颱風吞噬了如此多的生命，破壞的房屋不計其數，它的肆虐同時也在海岸線以外造成了嚴重問題。海底泥石流毀壞了七條連接亞洲數國的海底光纖電纜，令該區域的網絡連接和國際語音通話中斷，電訊工作人員忙於恢復服務。

Telecoms

Many web users in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and the Philippines experienced painfully slow, stalled or frustrated Internet connections as the typhoon’s shockwaves compromised underwater cables connecting them to websites hosted in the United States. The

SWM-3 (Southeast Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 3) cable was first hit by the landslides; then further seabed movements caused by the typhoon over the following days severed more cables, including the APCN (Asia Pacific Cable Network) and APCN2.

&Typhoons

Taiwan after typhoon Morakot

颱風與電訊

作者/by Steve Lunt


Economy 41

颱風的衝擊波損害了連接美國網站的海纜，令台灣，香港，新加坡和菲律賓的許多用戶在上網時網速緩慢，甚至頻繁中斷。法新歐亞三號電纜（SWM-3：東南亞—中東—西歐三號電纜）首先遭到泥石流毀壞，隨後幾天的颱風引起的進一步海床面振動造成更多的海纜斷裂，包括亞太光纖網絡APCN和亞太光纖網絡二號APCN2。

Network traffic across the region was severely affected by these multiple cable cuts, and three of the Philippines’ largest telecommunications providers said their international call and broadband

services suffered partial disruptions for two days because of damaged cables connecting so many countries: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines - where Globe Telecom and Philippine Long Distance Telephone said they had to re-route Internet traffic and some international business circuits to two other cable networks; while Smart Communications customers also experienced problems with their international voice and text services.

該區域的網絡流量受到多條海纜斷裂的嚴重影響，菲律賓三大電訊供應商稱，其國際長途和寬帶服務局部中斷兩天，因為連接多個國家和地區的海纜遭到毀壞，波及的國家和地區包括中國，香港，日本，韓國，台灣，馬來西亞，新加坡和菲律賓。全球電訊公司（Globe Telecom）和菲律賓長途電話公司（Philippine Long Distance Telephone）表示，他們必須將網絡流量和一些國際商業線路繞行連接到其他兩個海纜網絡，而Smart Communications的客戶也在使用國際語音和短信服務時遇到問題。

Other Asian companies reporting service disruptions included Southeast Asia’s biggest telephone company Singapore Telecommunications and Taiwan’s largest player in the industry, Chunghwa Telecom - a former state-owned monopoly which jointly operates

four cables in the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. Several operators in Japan, Indonesia and South Korea were also adversely affected by the abnormally heavy weather.

其他報告服務中斷的亞洲公司包括東南亞最大的電訊公司新加坡電訊和台灣電訊行業的龍頭老大中華電訊。中華電訊的前身是國有壟斷企業，聯合運作台灣和菲律賓之間的巴士海峽的四條海纜。日本，印尼和韓國的幾大運營商也受到反常天氣災難的嚴重影響。

Nature’s rough interference with Asia’s telecommunications network is a reminder of the global dependence on cables lying on or just above the ocean floor. Most international Internet data and voice telephone calls are transmitted as pulses of light via hundreds of underwater fiber-optic lines weaving around the globe. These cables - costing hundreds of millions of dollars - are typically owned by specialized operators or telecom consortia, sharing costs and capacity.

大自然對亞洲電訊網絡的粗暴干預影響提醒我們，全世界都依賴著鋪設在海床上或海床上方的海纜。大多數國際網絡數據和語音電話服務都需要通過數百條交織全球的海底光纖電纜，以光波傳輸。這些價值數百美元的海纜，通常屬專業的運營商或電訊財團所有，共同承擔成本和流量。

There were no reports of seismic activity with Typhoon Morakot, and industry experts said the severity of these disruptions appeared to be far more benign than the pan-regional brown-out caused by the earthquake off the coast of southern Taiwan in December 2006, which damaged a number of cables in East Asia and brought days of disruption to Internet and data services in its wake.

並無報告指出颱風莫拉克引發了地震活動，業內專家指出，本次通訊中斷的嚴重程度遠較2006年12月由台南海域地震造成的全區電訊中斷溫和。那次地震毀壞了東亞的多條海纜，隨後造成網絡和數據服務中斷數日。

“The real story here may be how much progress Asia’s international network connectivity has made in just the last few years,” says Matt Walker, a telecoms analyst at consulting firm Ovum Walker.

Ovum Walker顧問公司的電訊分析員Matt Walker說：「這次天災真正顯示了在過去幾年來，亞洲的國際網絡連接取得了長足的發展。」

APCN2APCNSWM-3

Path ofTyphoon Mekong

August 6, 2009

August 9, 2009

Shanghai / Chongming

Shantou

Batangas

Katong

Oxford Falls

Sydney/ Paddington, Belrose

Shima

Tumon Bay /Tanguisson

Bandon

San Luis Obispo / Morro Bay

Lantau Island

Manchester

Kuantan

Pusan

Chikura / Maruyama

Kitaibaraki

Okinaw a

anshuingshan

SINGAPORE

INDONESIA

CHINA

Beijing

Seoul

Xiamen

PHILIPPINES

AUSTRALIA

Manila

Canberra

Melbourne

Adelaide

Brisbane

Cairns

Darwin

Tianjing

Suzhou

Wuxi

SOUTHKOREA

JAPAN

Sapporo

Hokkaido

U.S.A.

Los Angeles

San Francisco

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

VIETNAM

THAILAND

TAIWAN

KualaLumpur

GUAM

HAWAIIHONG KONG

Mersing

Tungku

Da Nang

Medan

Penang

Satun

Ancol

Miyazaki

Nedona Beach

Keoj

颱風與電訊

Network traffic across the region was severely affected by these multiple cable cuts

Typhoon Mekong caused underwater landslides affecting 3 submarine cable networks


Economy42

Since the 2006 earthquake, companies have spent millions of dollars laying new cable networks connecting the U.S. via India and Southeast Asia. This has reduced the reliance on a few key networks of cables linking Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong to the U.S.

自2006年地震後，各企業投入數以百萬美元計的資金，鋪設新的海纜網絡，通過印度和東南亞接連美國，減少了對連接日本，台灣，香港到美國的幾個主要網絡的依賴。

Walker says: “With the installation of the Transpacific Express, the Asia

America Gateway, several smaller intra-Asia projects and cables linking Europe and Asia through India and the Middle East, the region’s cable systems are now much more meshed and resilient, and less prone to catastrophic failures.”

Walker說：「借道印度和中東連接歐洲，亞洲的跨太平洋高速電纜，亞美海底電纜和幾個小型的亞洲內部光纜鋪設成功之後，該區域的光纜系統現在更為完善，抵抗力更強，受自然災害的影響更小。」

Walker believes further investment in underwater cables – which are laid in different locations to avoid concentration

of lines in known trouble spots, as well as reducing reliance on the U.S. as a traffic hub - will also help companies against similar outages in the future.

他相信，在不同地點鋪設光纜，避免線路集中於問題地帶，也降低了對於美國這個網絡通訊樞紐的依賴。而對海底光纜的進一步投資，應能幫助企業應對未來類似的通訊中斷。

“The more capacity, the better,” he says.Walker說：「流量越大越好。」Indeed global telecom operators are

about to gain further access to still more cable facilities in the region. Bharti Airtel

APCN2APCNSWM-3

AJC

Trans-Paci�c Express China-US CN

Japan-US CNAsia-America Gateway

Submarine Telecommunications

Cable Networks

Shanghai / Chongming

Shantou

Batangas

Katong

Oxford Falls

Sydney/ Paddington, Belrose

Shima

Tumon Bay /Tanguisson

Bandon

San Luis Obispo / Morro Bay

Lantau Island

Manchester

Kuantan

Pusan

Chikura / Maruyama

Kitaibaraki

Okinaw a

TanshuiFangshan

SINGAPORE

INDONESIA

CHINA

Beijing

Seoul

Xiamen

PHILIPPINES

AUSTRALIA

Manila

Canberra

Melbourne

Adelaide

Brisbane

Cairns

Darwin

Tianjing

Suzhou

Wuxi

SOUTHKOREA

JAPAN

Sapporo

Hokkaido

U.S.A.

Los Angeles

San Francisco

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

VIETNAM

THAILAND

TAIWAN

KualaLumpur

GUAM

HAWAIIHONG KONG

Mersing

Tungku

Da Nang

Medan

Penang

Satun

Ancol

Miyazaki

Nedona Beach

Keoj


Economy 43

is the largest mobile-service provider in India, with more than 100 million domestic customers. Over the past two years, the company has spent around 500 million US dollars expanding its network. It will soon launch a “global wholesale service” in Singapore, opening its approximately 200,000 kilometers of international fiber-optic cables to carriers around the world.

的確，全球電訊運營商都準備在該區域掌握更多的光纜設施。Bharti Airtel是印度最大的移動服務供應商，國內用戶超過一億。在過去兩年來，該公司投資約五億美金拓展網絡。它即將在新加坡展開「全球批發服務」活動，向全世界運營商開放約20萬公里的國際光纖電纜。

Bharti Airtel believes the global economic downturn will drive more carriers to consider using wholesale services, and the company says they’ve already signed up clients including Saudi Telecom, PCCW of Hong Kong, and Oman Telecom.

Bharti Airtel相信，全球經濟衰退將使得更多的運營商考慮使用批發服務。公司稱，他們已與沙特電訊，香港的電訊盈科和阿曼電訊等客戶簽訂合約。

Cable operators in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and

Taiwan confirmed they were able to limit Morakot’s destructive impact through various workaround solutions, thanks to extra capacity and back-up alternatives. Internet connectivity issues and problems with phone services in Taiwan and the Philippines were resolved in less than 48 hours; and built-in ‘redundancies’ allowed service providers to re-route traffic through unaffected networks, with back-up cables taking over if main lines were damaged.

印尼，日本，菲律賓，新加坡，韓國和台灣的光纜運營商確認，全賴有額外的運營能力和後備選擇，他們才能通過各種迂回的解決方案，限制莫拉克的破壞力。台灣和菲律賓的網絡連接和電話服務中斷問題在風災後不到48個小時就得到解決，而固有的剩餘運營能力使得服務供應商能借助不受影響的網絡，改道網絡交通，以後備光纜取代斷裂的主要線路。

Chunghwa Telecom’s Leng Tai-feing said: “The typhoon didn’t destroy the cables all in one go, which would have led to a sudden outage of services. It slowly destroyed some of the cables, which is why it took a few days before some users were affected.”

中華電訊的Leng Tai-feing說：「颱風並沒有一口氣摧毀能造成服務驟然中斷的所有海纜，而是逐漸破壞某些海纜，這就是為什麼一些用戶在數日之後才受到影響。」

According to Chunghwa, up to 90 percent of all disrupted voice call and Internet services from parts of East Asia were resumed within a day of the disruption; and that although it might typically take their engineers one or two months to repair the more seriously damaged cables, any disruptions to customers’ services were only limited due to their additional network capacity. The company did however warn that unaffected cables carrying additional Internet and telecommunications traffic might not be able to handle all normal traffic flow, which would therefore slow their service at times.

根據中華電訊的資料，在所有東亞地區中斷的語音來電和網絡服務中，多達90%都在一天內修復。儘管他們的工程師通常需要一兩個月才能修復損壞更嚴重的海纜，但由於公司擁有額外的網絡能力，對客戶服務的中斷都是有限的。然而，公司也警告說，未受影響的海纜可能因為要傳輸額外的網絡和電訊流量，而不能處理

日常流量，因此服務有時會較為緩慢。Indonesia’s Bakrie Telecom confirmed

their voice and data services were also disrupted for only about 30 minutes, as the company was able to restore connectivity by switching to satellite and other cable routes.

印尼的Bakrie Telecom電訊公司證實，由於公司能轉用衛星傳輸和其他海纜線路恢復網絡連接，他們的語音和數據服務僅中斷了大約30分鐘。

And UK-based Cable & Wireless, which has a big presence in Asia, said traffic on its network was re-routed automatically, so its customers were not affected by the region’s cable problems.

總部位於英國的Cable & Wireless公司在亞洲擁有龐大的市場佔有率。公司稱其網絡流量自動繞行，因此客戶並未受到區域海纜斷裂問題的影響。

Analysts said it was hard to quantify exactly the extent to which traffic between Asia and Australia was affected because the undersea networks are an inter-connected web, but the effects were far more pronounced for Asian users. Walker explained:

“Fortunately Australia has its own direct links to the US - which is still the de facto hubbing point for most international Internet traffic - and across the Pacific through Japan, so the impact will be much less so than for Asia.”

分析家表示，難以計算亞洲和澳洲之間的通訊受到了多大程度的影響，因為海底網絡是一個相互連接的網絡，但是亞洲用戶受到的影響更為顯著。Walker解釋道：

「幸運的是，澳洲自己有連接美國的直通線路，而美國至今仍是大多數國際互聯網流量的樞紐。此外，澳洲還擁有跨太平洋通往日本的光纜，所以受到的影響要比亞洲小得多。」

Overall, the telecom companies seem to have handled the challenges posed by this formidable natural disaster rather more successfully than Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou: the leader’s political career may also suffer from the force of Morakot, as he faces growing criticism over his government’s response to the typhoon.

總而言之，在應對這次嚴重天災的考驗上，電訊公司似乎比台灣「總統」馬英九成功得多。由於台灣民眾紛紛批評政府在災後的救災反應，馬英九的政治生涯可能因為颱風莫拉克而受挫。|AT|

The comPlexiTy of decisions faced in many organizations today has exceeded the ability of current tools and methodologies to make the analysis associated with those decisions clearly accessible to all stakeholders. Decision makers lack a language that unifies quantitative information, “softer” elements like human judgment, and which helps them to reason effectively about uncertainty and risk in the midst of complex financial systems. Those are some of the conclusions in an upcoming book by Dr. Lorien Pratt and Mark Zangari, called Effective Decision Making. Based on a global study of decision makers in the private and public sectors, the book explains how a rich, dynamic, visual presentation of the elements of a decision can, like a blueprint for construction engineering, unify multiple decision stakeholders.

“Banks and other financial institutions are seeking improved transparency, traceability, and auditability of models and analysis underlying many decisions, including a much clearer, more transparent assessment of the real risks associated with a given strategy,” says Pratt, a former senior analyst with research firm Frost & Sullivan. To protect institutions and their customers, measures of risk in particular need to include not only traditional notions of the likelihood of a default, but also the exposure the institution faces due to the uncertainty of the information entered into models, and imperfections in the models themselves. By creating a clear visual

Visual Decision Modeling: An Introduction

picture of the elements of a decision and deploying techniques for correctly propagating various measures of uncertainty, these risks can be effectively managed, while the visual nature of the tools also enhances alignment between analysts, decision makers and other stakeholders”

Consider the diagram, a simple example of “visual decision model” for a decision regarding how to price a capital loan for an iron ore mine. The diagram shows how choices like the interest rate and loan period – combined with external data sources, such as the borrower’s credit rating, the wholesale interest rate, and the price of iron ore – can be used to not only to determine the expected spread as might be used in a decision to provide a loan to an iron ore business, but to provide both institutional management and the customer with a clear and

complete picture of how this price was arrived at.

Says Pratt “A basic decision model shows how one set of data depends on another, and so is very simple from that point of view. However, this visual model creates a foundation for a number of additional elements, which are critical

to expanding the sophistication of decision making for financial institutions:1. A visual model can be understood by quantitative staff as well as management, providing a common language for discussion: most decisions consist

of one or more values to be achieved (green), choices (yellow), external values (orange), detrimental intermediate values (red), and beneficial internal values (blue). By breaking those decisions down into these parts, each can be discussed independently, and varied to determine the impact of differing assumptions and choices.

2. The “links” in a decision model, which represent dependencies between quantities, allow an iterative approach to model building – something almost all other techniques lack. A link can represent:

a relationship that the modeler }

A Shared Visual Language for Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis unifies Decision Makers


Management 45

By creating a clear visual picture of the elements of a decision and deploying techniques for correctly propagating various measures of uncertainty, these risks can be effectively managed...

wishes to capture, but knows little about,

a relationship whose qualitative shape is understood, but whose precise formula is not known (this can be sketched as a graph associated with the relationship, and from which samples can be taken during quantitative calculations)

A precise formula

A call to an external “black box” system that can calculate the result, but whose internal workings do not need to be understood

In each case, an appropriate “model-based uncertainty” can be derived and an associated risk assigned, and the model builder can refine the relationships during the model’s lifecycle as more and better information is obtained. The structure of a visual model can be collaboratively designed by a decision making team which unifies both quantitative and non-quantitative staff.

}

}

}

Simply by moving from the cells of a spreadsheet to a visual layout, Pratt says that “new brain cells, in the part of our minds that understand visual information, become involved”. This means that it takes less effort to understand a given level of complexity. Cost-effective software that is easy to deploy and manage exists today that can be used to create an “executable” model showing how values depend on each other over time, and which includes sophisticated mechanisms for representing and propagating uncertainty and risk. In addition, a software basis for a decision model can provide another powerful feature: creating multiple models with different structure, but the same semantics, as alternative approaches to a given problem. Common features

within these various alternative “worlds” only need to be defined once and are “inherited” by any alternative “world” that requires them.

The decision design in turn forms the core of a more rigorous decision making methodology, which includes agreeing to decision objectives, refining those into detailed decision requirements, clearly understanding constraints and risks, constructing the decision design, providing quality assurance, and monitoring the outcome of the decision. |AT|

Pratt and Zangari will be teaching their approach this October in Singapore and Malaysia. See www.effectivedecisionmaking.net for more information.


Management46

Simply by moving from the cells of a spreadsheet to a visual layout, Pratt says that “new brain cells, in the part of our minds that understand visual information, become involved”

Visual presentation of the elements of a decision can, like a blueprint for construction engineering, unify multiple decision stakeholders

Burrower’sCredit Rating

WholesaleInterest Rate

Price of Iron Ore

Cost

Expected Revenue

Expected Spread

Interest Rateto Change for

Iron Ore

Loan Period

Probability ofDefault

Value of Collateral on

Default

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug


2579.21

2372.34

2037.02

2241.76

3215.75

2761.39

3478.01

100% : 2,037.02

61.8% : 2,587.48

50% : 2,757.52

38.2% : 2,927.55

0% : 3,478.01 MA (32) 3206.56MA (65) 3021.07

MA (130) 2700.76MA (260) 2373.11

$SSEC (Daily) 2960.77

$SSEC (Shanghai Comp (EOD)) INDX21- Aug - 2009 Close 2960.77 Chg +49.19 (+1.69%)

RSI (14) 41.33

Oversold

3500340033003200310030002900280027002600250024002300220021002000

9070503010

Equity markets proceeded to run through the recovery wave into the third quarter, showing only minor corrective drives to offset overbought levels. Trend indications continue to line upwards but some indices have illustrated reactions that forced them back to the supportive levels of short term moving averages. As long as these short term support structures hold, then major corrective threats will be deferred as market punters use rotational action to keep funds intact and available for buy-backs. Only China’s Shanghai Index registered significant declines, given that it has earmarked a 91% rally from its lows near the end of 2008.

第三季度，股市延續反彈之勢，期間偶有輕微調整，以糾正超買狀態。趨勢指標持續向上，一些指數已有虛高跡象，不得不回落到短期均線尋求支撐。只要短線支撐不破，就不會有深度回調，因為炒家會通過板塊輪動來保護資金並擇機回補。放眼全球，唯有中國上證指數跌勢慘重，該指數從2008年底的低位啟動，迄今已反彈高達91%。

A Ghostly month for China中國：跌宕起伏的一個月

China’s Shanghai Index shifted into a corrective mode experiencing a harrowing pullback of almost 20% from its August 4, 2009 high of 3,478. This definitely sent

shivers down markets’ back as a number of global indices used this to sponsor a reactive consolidation. Shanghai has managed to bounce form this debacle but still needs to prove it has found a good support zone to engender a new demand shelf. Technically it has achieved a necessary correction as our estimated Fibonacci retracement levels projected

Trends continue to point Upwards... But China saw Red升勢不改惟中國股市見紅

超賣


Technical Overview of Markets 47World Market Performance (as of August 21, 2009)

Country國家

StockChart Code

StockChart代號

Current Price當前點位

1/4-Yr MA3個月移動平

均值

1-Yr MA 1年移動平

均值

Rally high from ‘09 base

從09年低位反彈幅度

YTD Performance年初至今表現

uSA 美國 $spx 1,026 944 934 54.2% 14%

Philippines 菲律賓 $psec 2,720 2,558 2,235 65.8% 45%

England英國 $ftse 4,850 4,445 4,386 40.4% 10%

Japan日本 $nikk 10,238 9,863 9,478 51.4% 16%

hong Kong香港 $hsi 20,199 18,959 16,355 86.8% 40%

China中國 $ssec 2,960 3,021* 2,373 91.7% 63%

(* Red colored Moving Average value presents that prices have fallen below it and may now act out as resistance)

(*紅色的均線值表示股指已經跌破該均線，此處現已成為阻力位)

support between 2,757 and 2,587, these being a 50% and 61.8% retracement pullback respectively. With the 50% retracement zone being triggered within 11 days since its August 4 high, such hasty declines have pushed its RSI to oversold levels (30%) providing for some recovery action into the short term. The recent recovery by markets may allow the Shanghai index try work in some support action that may induce prices to feel its way closer to 3,021 or 3,200. Thereafter a likely consolidation phase may be needed to generate a stronger support base... as it cannot afford to break below its recent support of 2,757 lest it threaten further declines towards 2,587 to 2,400.

中國上證指數進入調整期，大盤自8月4日觸及3,478點高位後調頭回落，重挫近20%。如此跌勢令人心驚膽寒，亦拖累全球許多股指跟隨回調。後來滬指從困境中奮力反彈，不過若要吸引買家入場，須得證明底部有良好支撐。技術上，滬指確有調整之需，我們用「神奇數字」計算支撐位在2,757 - 2,587之間，回調幅度為50% - 61.8%。由於股指自8月4日見頂後11天內就急跌到50%回調區域，RSI已呈超賣（30%），估計短線當有反彈。連月來積累的漲幅會給滬指提供支撐，大盤有望回漲到3,021 - 3,200，此後或需一段整固，以鞏固底部支撐。一旦跌破近期支撐位2,757，恐有下探2,587乃至2,400之虞。

Global Markets to still show some wobble and Range Trading市場仍不穩定振盪走勢可期

Although markets were able to fend off such corrective ripples from China, they have all shown some reactive moments

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

9070603010



1265.52

1484.98

1587.00 1664.19

1773.13

1753.70

1879.92 1861.62

MA (32) 1940.92MA (65) 1871.09

$ COMPQ (daily) 2020.90

$ COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) INDX21-Aug-2009 Close 2020.90 Volume 2.3B Chg +31.68 (+1.59%)

RSI (14) 62.33

given their weekly overbought structures and thus their susceptibility to profit taking. Weekly RSI studies shows that a good number of indices have RSI values of 64+ which means that its stands close to medium term overbought levels that may limit short term advances to contained upward jabs.

儘管環球市場抵住中國股市的動盪，但因週線指標呈現超買，加上獲利回吐打壓，環球股市全線調整。從RSI週線來看，許多股指的RSI都達到64以上，已接近中線超買，這將制約市場的短線漲勢。

This should sponsor the appearance of price channels and area patterns, allowing for some range trading – buying on support and selling into range highs or channel tops. The image of the

NASDAQ on above describes what type of channel zones will likely be seen in terms of a tradable range. Here, it shows the short term 32-day Moving Average to be a key support zone in holding on to recovery wave. Moreover it does show a short term upside potential of 2,100 or so after connecting the angle of recent tops. And given than there are no divergences yet showing, the upward cascade can still be said to be ongoing. This is what other indices may try to mimic as well as long as their 32-day or even 65-day (quarterly) Moving Averages can hold support well.

股指將形成運行通道和區域，呈現振盪市的走勢——在支撐位入貨，在區間高點或者通道上軌出貨。右側的納斯達克指數走勢圖展現出一個振盪市的通道區域。

Technical Overview of Markets4�


圖中可見，短期32天均線是維繫反彈行情的關鍵支撐位。由於尚未出現背離，可以說升勢仍在延續。就其他股指而言，只要32天甚至65天（季度）均線不破，大體亦會呈現這種走勢。

What’s to follow: Mania then Mayhem後市展望：狂熱過後是動盪

The recent call by the US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke stating that U.S. economy is nearing a recovery was taken in clear positive light, voting highly that the recession has likely come to an end. This has investors twiddling their thumbs on valuation numbers and earnings expectations – should they now price in an economic expansion or remain defensive into a recession’s reconsolidation... a decision that may bring out a short term gust of mania and thereafter mayhem once volatility then corrective swings tug on overbought conditions.

美聯儲主席伯南克近日表示美國經濟正在接近復甦，此言猶如一線曙光，讓人看到衰退就要結束。投資者都在盤算估值水平和業績預期—到底是現在就該消化經濟擴張這個利好，還是保持戒備心態，以防衰退捲土重來…也許這個決定將掀起一陣狂熱，緊接著是劇烈動盪，最後通過回調來糾正超買。

Markets may try to briefly move into overdrive after surviving another attempt to correct and especially after seeing the China index take a wallop. These may produce valiant investors who may recast their fishing rods to fast moving favorites, bringing down their defensiveness (which served as a hindrance to making more money.) But this is what gets the market carefree and careless – a condition that overextends markets even more and drawing away the supportive catch basket of pragmatic fundamentalists. The results of this eventual carefree bloatedness is likely a corrective sway of weighted proportions.

躲過又一次調整，尤其是中國股市的重挫後，各大市場一時間或會進入過度興奮的狀態。那些無畏的投資者將會放下戒備心（因為這是賺錢的障礙），重新放手一搏。市場的無所顧忌和肆意妄為正是因此而起，它令市場過度膨脹，

脫離基本面的支持，最後以深度調整告終。

Although the advances still look resilient the China example may serve as a prelude to what markets can expect into a possible correction... after achieving their long drawn out targets. Recall that China managed to climb ahead of other markets, and may thus similarly correct first given the extended condition of its extenuating advance. We are trend followers but also realistic. Follow present trends but do so with more cautious regard. And until a proper reaction/consolidation fronts can administer a dose of healthy profit taking, keep your defensive stand up and motion in only after proper corrective moves.

雖然上漲勢頭看似韌勁不減，但中國股市的前車之鑒已經吹響調整前奏，尤其是經歷過長期上漲之後。當初中國股市領先其他市場開始反彈，如今則在巨大漲幅之下率先進入回調。我們要做趨勢的跟隨者，也要有務實的心態，既要順勢而為，亦應加倍小心。除非有一輪充份的回調／整固能夠消化獲利回吐的沽壓，否則你應抱定防禦心態，唯有在適當調整過後方可相機而動。

Our Plan of Action: Follow the Game Plan till the End...行動計劃：恪守既定策略

We would like to maintain what we said into last month’s article, which favors the continuity of advancing but overbought trends that must be followed by key technical trading strategies. And these tactical insights are to be upheld so long as our major support zones, by way of the 32 to 65-day Moving averages and trendlines, have not been violated.

我們重申上月文章中提到的觀點，即反彈將會延續，但是在超買形勢下，必須遵循技術面的關鍵交易策略。只要32天和65天均線及趨勢線這些重要支撐位沒有失守，這些策略就一直有效。

Bargain hunt only with: 僅在以下時機趁低吸納：

Higher-lows offers (buying after reactions that show higher bases) 底部抬高（回調時底部抬高則可買進）

°

Retracements that close in on short term support (with preferred supportive platforms genrated by the 16 and 32-day Moving Averages) 回落至短期支撐位附近（最好是16天和32天均線形成的支撐平台）

Breakouts from consolidation patterns that do not show too much loss in momentum 回落至短期支撐位附近（最好是16天和32天均線形成的支撐平台）

Recall to:記住：

Avoid chasing prices with heavy volumes (especially when RSIs are greater than 70%) 放量時不追高（尤其是RSI高於70%）

Be watchful of bearish divergences (higher-high prices followed with lower-high RSIs) 警惕空頭背離（價格不斷上升，而RSI的高位不斷降低）

Raise your support stops to short term averages if you must – but keep the 32-day Moving Average as our base – as a break of this would likely engfender the creation of wider area patterns. 必要時提高止損點位，以32天均線為基礎，跌破此處將會打開下跌空間

In all we still acknowledge the position that markets have yet to see their tops and that the recovery wave, although stretched out, still has some muscle to provide necessary lift. The new highs seen in the US indices and recently the pitch up in Oil prices (now testing recent highs at $73/barrel) still shows some zeal and support of the fact that there may be more to the recovery swing...

最後我們亦應意識到，現在市場尚未到達頂部，反彈過程儘管一波三折但仍有力度，所以上升空間猶存。美國股市的新高和近期油價的回升（現正挑戰73美元/桶的近期高位），顯示市場仍有熱情和底氣支持反彈行情發展。

Ghost month or not... the ride continues but we play up the opportunity to tighten support stops given some advanced signs of wear and tear.

不管「鬼月」與否，漲勢仍在延續，但鑒於市場已初顯疲態，此時宜趁機收緊止損點位。|AT|

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Techinical Overview of Markets 49


Nikkei 225 (Japan)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

10,003 9,479 10,700 11,500

Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,700 2,587 3,021 3,200

Nikkei maintains its channel The Nikkei continues to move largely upwards but into a short term range as it looks to find a more stable level of demand. Support is now seen between 10,003 and 9,479 and its topside range still shows in the higher end of the channel closer to 11,500. Although the index shows one of the weaker performers into this reaction and rally, its recent push above the 1-Yr MA still offers the capacity to reach over recent highs if not slightly higher.

STRATEGy: Range trade this index up to its resistance or channel highs. Expect a consolidation pattern to draw out thereafter as momentum indicators do show residual selling pressure. Short term highs could be expected near 10,700 then at the channel high of 11,500.

Shanghai Index corrects back to 130-dayMA This Chinese index broke off its upward trend to correct back to its 130-day moving average. Also its Fibonacci retracement levels projected support between 2,757-2,587, the first has just been hit. The heavyset correction allowed the RSI to come down quite a bit - alleviating earlier signs of overbought conditions. Expect an initial bounce to be displayed followed by a new area pattern to work on the disparity between its recent highs and lows. Some resistance may be seen through short term Moving Averages.

STRATEGy: As the short-term trendline has recently been broken, a sell into strength or range trade is offered. Recent oversold levels will allow for a recovery and may flex upwards until resistance is found (estimated between 3,021 or 3,200). Look to lighten down into this resistance fronts.

50


ATIR Market Report

-38.8485

10284.029864.499479.079095.19

12000

137.8460

7000

100

Sept29 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 30 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 31

-500

13000

14000

15000

2008

RSI on Close (14) 53.73

MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

137.8460176.6945-38.8485

53.73

LastHigh on 08/29/08AverageLow on 10/28/08SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

10284.0213079.379257.456994.909864.484110003.38289479.07239095.1904

11000

8000

-19.9141-78.4277

2390.977

2700.351

3020.131

3205.023

2911.580

1500

100

100


50

2000

2500

3500

4000

2008



-78.4277-19.9141-58.5136

38.23

LastHigh on 08/04/09AverageLOw on 10/28/08SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

2911.5803478.0102380.1731664.9253020.31253205.02292390.97662700.3506

Set Index (Thailand)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

616 598 670 700

Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,227 2,107 2,411 2,500

ATIR Market Report 51


The Set maintains advance but diverges The Thai Set index has also set forth on an attempt to bounce back still above its short term moving averages. The recovery bounce however surfaced with some divergences and may not spell out too much upside power as many global indices may show. Nevertheless it should offer the capacity to reach between 670 to 700 and thereafter produce a more corrective range. So long as it can stand above its 32-day moving average, some decent support should be able to keep its trend upward bound.

STRATEGy: A Hold stands with attention given to the trendline and 32-day moving average as important levels of demand. A better buy would stem closer to 616 as long as support does not break.

The JCI pushes along its upward channel Jakarta’s Composite is proceeding with its advancing channel despite it correcting back near its 32-day moving average. Its present short term resistance shows at 2,411 followed by 2,500. Earlier overbought readings have eased and should allow the index to gradually progress as long as its higher low structures hold. It also shows some divergence signs and must be guarded against. The nearest support point is pegged at 2,227 and this also shows the presence of its up trendline – making it a good avenue to place a stop.

STRATEGy Hold and watch support carefully. As long as its higher low bases proceed to form then a buy in should present itself closer to short term moving averages. This buy range can be located nearer to 2,227.

Sept 30Aug 29 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 31 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 312008

800

700

600

500

400

-40

100

50

0


640.98691.51511.74380.05598.8937616.2700523.2743524.9902



11.360413.4392-2.0788

1800

1000

0

100


50

1200

2000

2200

2400

2008



59.728672.8171-13.0885


2328.6392411.8991654.9921089.3402107.14282227.02661695.38891797.1324

1600

1400

-100

Aug 29

KLSE Composite (Malaysia)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,150 1,107 1,200 1,250

PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,684 2,558 2,900 3,100

STRATEGy: A Range Trade or hold can be maintained for the KLSE but with some gradual lightening closer to levels of resistance. It would be preferred to look into buyback programs closer to its 32-day moving average currently placed near 1,150. If support is broken then some further reactions may be seen closer to 1,107.

The PSEi keeps to its ranges The Philippine Composite corrects back to the meeting place of its trendline and moving average. MACD readings continue to show some slowdown in momentum but support is allowing for some rebound and then consolidation time. Now near support (2,684), some range trading may be shown so long as no rupture in its support is shown. Short term overbought levels have narrowed which provide for some room for rebounds. There are also no signs of divergence into this index which means that some degree of sustainability can yet be offered. STRATEGy: Range Trade near support and then look to lighten near its recent highs of 2,900 or 3,100. Look to fish out

bargains closer to the 32-day moving average, around 2,684.

ATIR Market Report52


Malaysia also channels upwards The KLSE index corrects back to its short-term moving average, but keeps its advancing move intact. The RSI has also come down to blow off some overbought steam. With no divergences to speak off and a clear maintenance in the demand swing, the channel should be able to foster its advance into the short term after its support test. Resistance is seen at its recent high of 1,200 and possibly extending to its channel high of 1,250.

900

800

0

-40

100


1000

1100

1200

1300

2008

57.11

-5.9494

982.61

10119.89

1107.78

1150.41

116822

12.7162MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

12.716218.6656-5.9494



1168.221196.46976.52801.271107.77941150.4072982.61271019.8865


2000

1800

1600

0

-100

100


50

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200


50.908974.2633-23.3544

2008


2720.182894.512207.751684.752558.23322684.86382235.80962278.3748

Straits Times Index (Singapore)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,513 2,411 2,700 - 2,750 3,000

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

19,748 18,917 21,200 23,000

STRATEGy: A Range Trade is also recommended for the index looking for better buys near its 2,513 support. Some lightening may be advised closer to 2,700-2,750 given that some weakness in momentum may prevent too much of an extended upward action. Moreover this was a previous breakdown site (mid-2008) which may call in some overhang in supply.

STRATEGy: A Hold or range trade is advised into the HSI as the short and medium term trends are angling upwards. A support stop is placed at 19,748 this being the 32-day moving average. A break of this will be the only trigger to sell and oversee a wider pullback to 18,917 or 18,000

The STI looks to find support at trendline Singapore Straits Times Index showed a corrective swing after hitting a new recent high, but keeps to its ascending trend. Its corrective pullback to support may now offer yet another push that may enable the index to scale upwards closer to its recent highs or just off it at 2,700-2,750. This is because its RSI levels have come down from overbought levels and may allow for some room into a recovery.

Hang Seng retraces but holds on support The HSI has retraced back to major support level of the 32-day moving average after it’s significant up move in July. Prices have struggled to head up wards as overbought conditions have been hindering the move. But a possible rally to 21,200 may be seen in an attempt to make a recovery. Some volatility may continue as some pressure was initially seen because of the China drawback, but as long as support holds an opportunity to buy closer to support stands.



016.7632

10119.892000

1200

1500

-100

100


3000

2008

5424

2069.66

2411.91

2513.17

2569.26

34.1181MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

34.118150.8814-16.7632


LastHigh on 09/0208AverageLow on 03/10/09SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

2569.262763.422046.771455.472411.91192513.16972069.66092107.4412


10000

0

-1000

100


50

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000


341.8460491.7135-149.8675

2008


20328.8621546.9416061.4210676.2918917.179719748.503916364.809616604.0449

Aug 29

Kospi (South Korea) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,517 1,457 1,600 1,730

All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

4,174 4,025 4,600 5,000t

STRATEGy: A Hold and range trade is similarly raised in the Kospi. Major support at 1,517 can host a support stop to manage available risk. A break above resistance should offer better upsides into the short term.

STRATEGy: A Hold is offered looking at some lightening closer to resistance with the option of buybacks near short term moving averages or support of 4,174. Expect some strain closer to 4,600.

The Kospi consolidates waiting for supportThe Kospi has rallied back to the previous resistance and may possibly break through this obstacle. Although 1,600 still remains as the major resistance, its recent consolidation may allow for more upside. Major support is now seen at the 32-day moving average at 1,517 and this is not too far to provide some comfort for bargain hunters. In that event that 1,600 can be broken then the next resistance stands a wide distance away at 1,730. And as no divergences are shown, not too much risk is seen.

Australia begins to slow as it overly extends The All Ordinaries have demonstrated a strong push above its shorter term moving averages and remains as the stronger conditioned index. However its strength comes at a price of being overstretched and may need some consolidation time to fix this extendedness. A channel shows resistance closer to 4,600 and this puts some limit into short term potential. A pullback towards support also shows some risk as it highlights a possible pullback to 4,174… and with its MACD also showing some waning signs, could place some corrective threat into this index in the short term.



100

100

Sept 30--- Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 31 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 31

60

1000

1200

1400

1800

2008


1583.631594.461286.52892.161457.09221517.35251293.97571354.5767



26.589730.9829-4.4133

1517.35

1457.09

1354.58

1293.98

1583.63

26.5697-4.4133

66.29

-9.258498.3115

3787.443918.834025.94

4353.50

4174.77


4353.505250.403897.443090.804025.94464174.77493918.83083787.4407


3000

-200

100


50

3500

4500

5000

5500

6000


98.3115107.5698-9.2584

2008Aug 29

Dow Jones Industrials (US)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

8,994 8,751 9,653 10,000

NASDAQ (US) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,565 1,508 1,620 1,750 - 1,780

STRATEGy: The Dow rekindled a range trade offer and maintains an upward sweep into prices. A better buy-in would surface closer to support which presently stands at near to 9,000. Momentum has yet to gear up which means that its rise may be quite choppy. So track your support stops and strap in.

STRATEGy: A Hold or range trade is issued for the index as it proceeds to climb the staircase of its channel. A support stop is maintained at 1,565 in prospect for a rally move to 1,700 or 1,750.

The Dow holds on to its upward assault The Dow Industrials pushed back into a new recent high and took back its advance from its reactive drive. The recent up move shows some rekindling in momentum and may allow for a range trade window out of its short term correction. Short term overbought levels have narrowed which may pitch for new ranges and rebounds from support lows. Next short term support stop placed at 8,994; major support at 8,751. Resistance now calibrated to 9,653 then 10,000

NASDAQ bounces from support The NASDAQ managed to rally from its supportive zone breathing new life into it. Prices have found a support level on the 32-day moving average near 1,565. This bounce should allow the index to push back to new recent highs and try to mark itself back near 1,700 to 1,750. And as no divergences are spotted a good chance remains to allow the rally to widen. However it’s MACD does track some momentum loss which means that the upward track may be a bit choppy.




7000

0

-400

100


50

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000LastHigh on 09/02/08AverageLOw on 03/06/09SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

9350.0511790.178718.426469.958751.17978994.94638805.84578238.9316


142.2148168.2709-26.0561

2008


1000

0

-100

100


50

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


20.466127.4000-6.9339


1614.221937.761370.631018.861508.42661565.38121388.07911386.1487

2008

S&P 500 (US) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

968 942 1,044 1,100

STRATEGy: A Hold or range trade issued particularly that the recent pullback effected some narrowing off overbought levels. A buy back closer to support zones is established with short term support now carried at 968. Upside targets picture a potential swing to 1,044 and 1,100.



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The SP500 breaks resistance The SP500 has also shown some durability and has bounced above its 32-day moving average support. This keeps the upward tug open and available for further advances. Given however that it has come off a reactive phase, some slowdown in momentum may cause some choppiness. But as long as the channel holds and no divergence show, the capacity for the index to resume its advance is strong.

“Ever since I’ve been wearing this watch my stress

is mostly gone.”

www.PhilipStein.com

Visit our Philip Stein boutiques at:6750 Ayala Ave., The Podium Mall, SM City North Edsa

Also available at all Lucerne, Chronos, Swiss Gear and Wrist_pod stores




1007.3713003.0492461666.79942.8712968.8887935.7474879.9268


700

0

-50

100


50

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400


14.643717.6344-2.9907

2008

“Ever since I’ve been wearing this watch my stress

is mostly gone.”

www.PhilipStein.com

Visit our Philip Stein boutiques at:6750 Ayala Ave., The Podium Mall, SM City North Edsa

Also available at all Lucerne, Chronos, Swiss Gear and Wrist_pod stores

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