September 2013 Eco Dev
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Economic Indicators for
Economic Developers: Where
is our Economy Going?
Taggert J. Brooks, PhDAssociate Professor of Economics
University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
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I HAVE NO IDEAREALLY
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Reference Points MatterANCHORS AWAY
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80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
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0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
Unemployment Rates
La Crosse
MSA
WI
US
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0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
Unemployment Rates
MN
WI
US
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATESBY COUNTY
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EMPLOYMENT GROWTHBY STATE
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2450.0
2500.0
2550.0
2600.0
2650.0
2700.0
2750.0
2800.0
2850.0
2900.0
2950.0
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Min
neso
ta N
on-F
arm
Em
plo
yment:
Thousa
nds
The Dayton Promise: 240,000 Jobs
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
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2550.0
2600.0
2650.0
2700.0
2750.0
2800.0
2850.0
2900.0
2950.0
3000.0
3050.0
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Wis
consi
n N
on-F
arm
Em
plo
yment:
Thousa
nds
The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
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UncertaintyELIMINATING POLICY UNCERTAINTY
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FISCAL DRAGPOLICY UNCERTAINTY
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The Fiscal Cliff
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THE FEDERAL RESERVEMONETARY POLICY UNCERTAINTY
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$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
1/3/2007 1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Traditional Security Holdings
Tri
llions
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Bernanke decides to talk “taper”
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Number of Building Permits in La Crosse MSA
Total Permits
Single Unit Permits
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THANKS.
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$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
1/3/2007 1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Traditional Security Holdings
Tri
llions
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Explicit 2% Target
Announced
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40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
April
2002
October
2003
March
2006
February
2008***
February
2009***
August
2010***
Febraury
2012***
August
2013***
7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment
*** Survey moves to web
7 Rivers
National
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-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2008Q1 2009Q4 2011Q3 2013Q2
Change in GDP since Q1 2008US
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
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“
”
If employment & prices are strong,
We can give up QE before long,
So we're tapering it,
But just by a bit,
In case we turn out to be wrong.
FRIDAY, AUGUST 16, 2013
Advance Draft of Next FOMC Statement from:
Dr. Goose (www.limericksecon.com)