September 17, 2019 Jeffrey D. Stern, Ph.D.

State Coordinator of Emergency Management

Virginia’s Evolving Risk Environment Since 9/11 Declining Federal Grant Support for Local and State

Emergency Management in Virginia FEMA Disaster Aid Including Shelter Information APA Audit Corrective Actions

Virginia’s Evolving Risk Environment Since 9/11

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Mt. Carmel Baptist Church – Danville, VA

Virginia Tech – 32 dead Alexandria – 6 shot

Virginia Beach – 12 dead Charlottesville – 3 dead

Population Impacted: ZONE A = 287,116 ZONE B = 333,339 ZONE C = 433,415 ZONE D = 268,487 Inland = 540,424

Cumulative Totals:

ZONE A = 287,116 ZONE A+B = 620,455 ZONE A+B+C = 1,053,870 ZONE A+B+C+D = 1,322,387 ZONE A+B+C+D+Inland = 1,862,781

Source: NOAA https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

Declining Federal Grant Support for Local and State Emergency Management in Virginia

The emergency management system consists of emergency

management and homeland security programs at the state and local level. The majority of federal funds are

passed through VDEM to support local fire, law enforcement, emergency management, and homeland security programs.

Local and State Emergency Management Declining Federal Grant Revenue (Non General Fund)

$51,245,538

$61,218,625

$41,730,929

$23,403,175

$69,252,080

$57,506,135

$55,311,181

$49,757,821

$32,146,441

$17,322,807

$20,990,328

$19,306,167

$18,713,714

$18,504,235

$19,510,360

$18,164,774

$-

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Federal Grant Revenues (Non General Funds)

Award Amount Pass Through Funding VDEM Operating Linear (Award Amount)

Federal grants down 70% since 2007

Local Funds VDEM Funds Trend

Local and State Emergency Management Declining Federal Grant Revenue (Non General Fund)

$51,245,538

$61,218,625

$41,730,929

$23,403,175

$69,252,080

$57,506,135

$55,311,181

$49,757,821

$32,146,441

$17,322,807

$20,990,328

$19,306,167

$18,713,714

$18,504,235

$19,510,360

$18,164,774

$-

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Includes EMPG, SHSP, UASI, Port, and Other Discontinued Grants

Award Amount

$30 million less per year $276 million less 2003-11 vs. 2012-18

Average $48M/year 2003-11

Average $18M/year 2012-18

$158,144

$3,050,047

$- $500,000

$1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000

VITA/Computer Systems (up 1,830%)

$290,916

$1,012,189

$- $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000

$1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000

VITA/IT Telecom (up 248%)

$51,708

$70,891

$40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000

Insurance (up 37%)

$368,638

$665,393

$300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000

Headquarters Rent (up 82%)

Source: Department of Planning and Budget

VDEM closed last year on budget after aggressively closing $5 million gap for FY19.

• 20% vacancy management/strategic tired hiring $1,828,462 • Information technology efficiencies $1,150,568 • Reduction in training & exercises $378,118

• Special operations teams in Virginia used only under

Governor's emergency declaration $325,000

• Unspent grant retention $1,000,000 • Replace contractors with VDEM staff $281,000

Total FY19 budget adjustments

_____________

$4,963,148

FEMA Disaster Aid Including Shelter Information

2018-19 est. disaster damages and costs

$187,654,725

*Note: Reflects $17,211,122 drawdown from FEMA will be received in the state treasury week of 9/16/2019

Legend: Green: Disaster Closed Yellow: Mitigation Ongoing Orange: Disaster Open

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Emergency Declaration

Date Disaster Project Status

in Virginia Project Status

with FEMA

Authorized Sum Sufficient Estimate

Actual Disaster Damages & Costs

FEMA Aid to Localities and State

Agencies FEMA Obligated

State Match (Cost Share for FEMA Aid

to Localities)

State Missions Eligible for 75%

FEMA Reimbursement

FEMA Reimbursment for

State Missions

Sum Sufficient Repaid by FEMA

to Date

Additional FEMA Aid for Mitigation

2009 Flooding Closed Closed $ 2,450,893 $ 10,155,372 $ 7,711,083 $ 7,711,083 $ 1,932,947 $ 526,171 $ 472,864 $ 472,864 $ 1,409,603

2009 Snow Storm Closed Closed $ 6,004,064 $ 30,256,783 $ 22,897,912 $ 22,897,912 $ 1,647,786 $ 1,592,347 $ 1,336,017 $ 1,336,017 $ 4,433,630

2010 Snow Storm Closed Closed $ 4,407,782 $ 36,957,373 $ 28,931,682 $ 28,931,682 $ 2,055,820 $ 1,018,841 $ 927,944 $ 927,944 $ 4,181,065

2011 Hurricane Irene Open Closed $ 12,750,530 $ 76,424,760 $ 57,752,705 $ 57,752,705 $ 9,170,551 $ 3,718,209 $ 3,237,421 $ 3,237,421 $ 6,324,376

2011 Earthquake Open Closed $ 10,133,566 $ 57,768,615 $ 43,561,725 $ 43,561,725 $ 9,136,605 $ 897,959 $ 897,479 $ 897,479 $ 6,552,138

2011 Tropical Storm Lee Open Closed $ 1,228,787 $ 6,812,062 $ 5,135,398 $ 5,135,398 $ 354,604 $ 159,710 $ 146,134 $ 146,134 $ 842,149

2012 Derecho Open Closed $ 3,855,006 $ 28,572,723 $ 21,677,344 $ 21,677,344 $ 1,976,281 $ 2,071,377 $ 1,847,958 $ 1,847,958 $ 2,329,986

2012 Hurricane Sandy Open Closed $ 2,618,294 $ 13,849,190 $ 10,459,122 $ 10,459,122 $ 1,011,838 $ 636,042 $ 559,803 $ 559,803 $ 1,483,218

2016 Snow Storm Open Open $ 4,824,127 $ 62,518,133 $ 47,119,236 $ 47,119,236 $ 2,648,979 $ 1,519,349 $ 1,344,245 $ 1,344,245 $ 7,440,330

2016 Hurricane Matthew Open Open $ 5,043,878 $ 20,333,636 $ 16,043,678 $ 16,043,678 $ 3,546,991 $ 303,113 $ 193,519 $ 32,275 $ 1,947,234

2018 Hurricane Florence * Open Open $ 41,986,097 $ 45,029,856 $ 33,772,392 $ 21,087,627 $ 7,655,076 $ 34,209,413 $ 24,756,298 $ 17,211,122 $ 5,170,961

2018 Hurricane Michael Open Open $ 724,015 $ 49,768,156 $ 37,326,117 $ 12,247,849 $ 8,460,587 $ 20,235 $ 15,177 $ 15,177 $ 4,784,944

TOTALS $ 96,027,039 $ 438,446,659 $ 332,388,394 $ 294,625,361 $ 49,598,065 $ 46,672,766 $ 35,734,859 $ 28,028,439 $ 46,899,634

Forecast: Catastrophic Major CAT 4 Hurricane

Forecast: Tropical Force Winds

Forecast: Catastrophic Inland Flooding

Presidential Pre-Landfall Disaster Declaration on Sept. 11, 2018.

Evacuation using Regional Tiered Evacuation System (Zone A, 245,000 people).

Implementation of the 2006 State Managed Shelter program (CNU, WM, VCU) for 5,775.

Estimated evacuee shelter requirements 12,250-24,500

Presidential Major Disaster Declaration approved for:

Botetourt County Charles City County Chesterfield County Craig County Floyd County Franklin County Grayson County Halifax County Henry County Isle of Wight County King and Queen County King William County Lancaster County Lunenburg County Mathews County Mecklenburg County

US Navy sortie fleet US Coast Guard closed Port of Virginia 4 fatalities 10 tornadoes Damages & costs: $55+ million Red Cross estimates 100,000+ shelter

requirements at 5 days post storm

Nelson County Northumberland County Nottoway County Patrick County Pittsylvania County Pulaski County Roanoke County Russell County Bristol City Danville City Franklin City Hampton City Martinsville City Newport News City Richmond City Williamsburg City

State Action

Florida Evacuation

Georgia Evacuation

South Carolina Evacuation

North Carolina Evacuation

Virginia Evacuation

Sheltering Cost Comparison - Shelter Delivered as a Service Contract

Year 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019

State Texas Texas Texas Florida Florida Massachusetts Virginia Texas Washington

Event Harvey Harvey Harvey Michael Pre-disaster contract Pipeline Florence Pre-disaster

contract Pre-disaster

contract

Source DRC Texas TDEM

Texas TDOT DRC Florida DRC & Hagerty DRC & VDEM DRC DRC

Sites 5 1 NA 1 1 1 3 NA NA

Est. Population 700 6,325 NA 150 500 1,000 5,775 NA NA

Duration 5 Days NA NA 30 Days 30 Days 30 Days 7 Days NA NA

Total Cost $7,000,000 NA NA NA $10,414,304 $30,000,000 $31,151,250 NA NA

MOB/DEMOB $1,959,531 NA $391,000 $175,625 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 $4,875,000 $1,570,000 NA

Cost/Person/Day $395-904 $974 $740-997 $815 $611 $600-795 $650 $600-996 $613

2006 post-Katrina Department of Social Services plan

Costs correctly predicted (2013 JLARC study, 2014 Witt-O’Brien’s Study, 2015, 2016, 2017 VDEM State Sheltering Reports to General Assembly)

Private sector “services” contract to establish sheltering for 5,775. Emergency services contract has been reviewed by DGS, APA, OSIG, FEMA, LA GOHSEP.

Estimated shelter need for Zone A is 12,250-24,500 people. Red Cross estimated need at 100,000 for Virginia and North Carolina.

At time of contract, 83% chance of catastrophic storm strike.

Cost-efficient alternatives being explored (State Supported Regional Shelters, warehouse shelters, different contract methods, local sheltering). All require significant acquisition of commodities and supplies.

Virginia share $7,787,813 FEMA share $23,363,437 ========= Total $31,151,250

Hurricane Florence - 103 projects $45 million FEMA EXPECTED PUBLIC ASSISTANCE DISASTER AID PROJECTS

Hurricane Michael - 291 projects $50 million

VirginiaPA.Org

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“The Louisiana Assessment Team based on numerous interviews and reports believes that State of Virginia performed well in the preparation and response to Hurricane Florence. The State

followed its Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) and reacted to the changing threat conditions in an appropriate manner by executing evacuation and sheltering based on their plans.”

“The Commonwealth of Virginia’s State Managed Shelter Plan is a well written plan.”

“As pertaining to contracting of services, again after reading all reports and conducting

interviews the plan and process was followed, DSS submitted request in WEBEOC for services, VEST followed the correct steps in acquiring the resources based on available contracts, the circumstances and timing of the incident. Contracts were fulfilled. Costly, however, within the preplanned prices. Those entities should be commended for making that happen within that

time period.”

“The State of Virginia made the correct call to order the mandatory evacuation and shelter openings when it did based on the NWS projections. The Louisiana Team,

having toured the Hampton Roads area during the visit, saw the potential for unimaginable catastrophic damage and flooding. The number of citizens who chose

not to evacuate to higher ground should be a concern.”

“Mother Nature does have a vote in how the scenario ultimately plays out.”

What if a CAT 3 (Major) storm hit Virginia? $40B in damages. 197,000 permanent lost jobs. 27,000 homes destroyed.

Who evacuated Zone A during Florence? Only 18 percent evacuated. Evacuation planning times based on 60-80 percent.

Conducted After Action Report and implementing recommendation from Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.

Issued executive orders to improve and streamline disaster operations. 1 page emergency declaration process. Revised Executive Order 41 on State Agency Preparedness.

Includes an emergency procurement working group.

Simplified and updated the Commonwealth of Virginia Emergency Operations Plan (COVEOP).

Conducted Cabinet Level Exercise simulating catastrophic hurricane striking Hampton Roads with NC Governor Roy Cooper and the Naval Postgraduate School.

Enhanced VDEM’s website to capture disaster-specific information such as waivers, evacuations, and local data.

Moved the KnowYourZoneVA.org website to an Amazon-based cloud provider. Provided DPB with real-time access to our logistics management system. Supporting Secretary Layne’s review of shelters and contracting (Budget Item 255.C). Reviewed disaster contracts with FEMA and the Office of the Attorney General. Pending: transfer one MEL (VDEM State Sheltering Coordinator) to Department of Social

Services (FY20).

APA Audit Corrective Actions

2018 Findings—5 issues: All 5 Now Compliant

Journal entry controls – documentation issue, completed. Response: Implemented a routing form that documents the correcting entry.

Payroll adjustments controls – documentation issue, completed. Response: When payroll is changed there is no audit control built into Cardinal system. VDEM has developed a process to ensure documentation supports the change.

Improve overhead costs allocation process – improve methodology, completed. Response: Allocation templates have been developed for overhead expenses.

Time and effort reporting - compliant. Response: VDEM revised our time reporting policy to include the grant-level time allocation in the Commonwealth’s time and leave reporting system (TAL) and monthly reconciliations (TAL to CIPPS to Cardinal) to begin in FY20. For FY19, VDEM will use the certification process in place with this budget cycle. (VDEM uses 5 payroll systems that do not interface; DoA and DHRM provides the systems.)

REPP fund management – compliant. Response: VDEM developed a written policy and procedures for managing and distributing the REPP funding. VDEM continues to work to improve all these processes on an ongoing basis.

VDEM authorized MEL 160. Current staff below MEL.

118 129 125 129 117 104

123 144

131

15 21

8 12 30 42

26

18

1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Personnel (Orange) vs Authorized MEL (Blue)

FTE Contractor Authorized MEL

END