Sentiment Analysis Report for WE 130712 - NSE

7/31/2019 Sentiment Analysis Report for WE 130712 - NSE

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 130712

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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E July 13, 2012Sunday, July 15, 2012/ Proshare Research

The Diagnosis

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended July 13, 2012 technically revealeadcontinued bargain tendency and firm optimistic activities with weak speculative actionsin the investors trading pattern as against active bargain and sustained speculative

propensity observed in the previous weeks performance.

Further analysis revealed weakness in bargain appetite as we had observed weakmomemtum in the mid-week http://www.proshareng.com/news/17701 . meanwhile, theincreased patronage towards value and big Cap stocks further suggests decline ininvestors risk appetite

In the week just ended, sustained low speculative tendency was observed across themajor sectors while improved active bargain activities gained moemetum, mainlytowards value stocks.- a sustained value and cautious trading approach observed.However, continued mild sell tendency was observed mainly towards few active pennystocks in most active and majorsectors.

Nevertheless, the sustained improved bargain drive outweighed the mild sell posture,taking support from blue chip and value stocks while the value investors dictate

market direction - a major reason for less speculative activities in the market.

To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside waningactivity

levelas sideline attendants appeared to take positions subtly, yet remain a significantfeature.

Prescription and the likely expectation in the coming periods: considering the

maket RSI at its top, market may experience short term retracement soon as we haveobserved slight weakness in market optmism level (frail bargain appetite observed in theweek)- the strong gain recorded in few big caps saved the week as subtle profit taking is

brewing.

Notwithstanding, the sustained bargain trend is not in doubt as investors may maintainhold positions towards half-year interim benefits while impressive Q2 results may spur

moderate bargain trend.

Market Diagnostic Score Card

Market Gauges Scores Remarks

ASI +2.85%

The positive posture was significantly impacted byactivities towards value stocks and few heavycounters across the sectors. Sustained strong

bargain drive was observed when compared to+2.37% gained recorded in the previous week.

Market BreadthPositive(Healthy)

This confirms the growing bargain witnessed in theweek which further reflects the sustained

speculative trading is some sectors.

Market RSI

75.98(gaininguptrend

momentum)

The market RSI shows that market is gaininguptrend momentum. Market RSI closed higher asagainst previous week of66.77.

More importantly, this indicates market is at its topand possible price correction is not in doubt any timesoon

Indecision level (%) 61.18%

Illiquidity of some stocks, low purchasing power, lowrisk appetite, feeble confidence and wary posture ofinvestors reflected here significantly- This isconsidered too high- an unimproved postureagainst 56.08% observed in the previous week.


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Optimism Level (%) 19.74%

There is weakness in the optimism level of the marketagainst the previous outlook of26.35%.

More so, there was increased accumulation as theoptimistic activity on the bourse closed higher at66.05%, against total market activity, from 62.4%recorded in the previous week.

Pessimism Level (%) 19.08%

There is slight increase in pessimism level in the

market - an unimpressive posture over the previousoutlook of 17.57%. This shows that 19.08% ofmarket participants in the week were pessimisticabout the market.

Proshare Research

Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured liquid and active stocks of

Medium and Large CAP categories in Agriculture, Conglomerates, Healthcare,Financial Services and Construction/Real Estate sector(s) in that order whichfurther revealed the sectors investors patronised in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the

Industrial Goods, Services, Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas sector(s) as sellsentiments was stronger in the sector(s).

Sector Performance Sector Movers Direction & Trading Psychology

Agriculture 3.88% LIVESTOCK

Sustained active bargain tendencyobserved in the sector(s), indicatingattractive posture of stock(s)within

the sector(s)

Conglomerates 2.23%TRANSCORP,AGLEVENT

Renewed bargain sentimentsobserved in the sector(s) due to

depressed and attractive prices thatfollowed the recent heavy sell

tendency observed in the sector(s)

Healthcare 0.97% EVANSMED

Sustained moderate bargaintendency observed in the sector(s),

indicating profit taking within thesector(s)

Financial Services 0.74%

UBN, GTASSURE,FIDELITYBK,

DIAMONDBNK, UBA,WAPIC, PRESTIGE

Sustained but weak bargaintendency observed in the sector(s),

indicating profit taking within thesector(s)

Construction/RealEstate

0.59% UAC-PROP

Renewed but mild bargainsentiments observed in the sector(s)due to depressed and attractive prices

that followed the recent heavy sell

tendency observed in the sector(s)

ICT 0.00%

Natural Resources 0.00%

No active transaction in thesector(s)

Industrial Goods -0.19% CAP, BAGCO, CCNNFresh mild sell tendency observed

in the sector(s) as profiteeringdominates

Services -0.32%

NAHCO, REDSTAREX,LONGMAN,

RTBRISCOE,IKEJAHOTEL

Continued but waning selltendency observed in the sector(s)

as profiteering dominates

Consumer Goods -0.79%

PZ, NASCON,

CADBURY, VITAFOAM,HONYFLOUR,FLOURMILL,

Fresh mild sell tendency observedin the sector(s) as profiteeringdominates


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DANGFLOUR

Oil & Gas -1.33%FO, JAPAULOIL,

ETERNA

Continued and growing selltendency observed in the sector(s)

as profiteering dominates

Proshare Research

Stock Trend & Direction

We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performancein the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK,

MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

UBA experienced continued bargain tendency and sustained positive sentiments in the

week to record 5.6% gain as against 12.0% gain recorded in the previous week- the

outlook revealed weak bargain posture while the stock experienced mixed sentimentsamid price volatility. Meanwhile, the stock performance came in line with our position as

envisaged in previous report while the stock recorded 18.31% price appreciation in

the last two weeks.

However, the stock may experience profiteering soon as we have observed weakness in

bargain momentum while the stock appeared overbought, buttressed by overbought

posture of MACD. Also, the full black candlestick pattern (Black Marubozu) formed in

the last trading day indicates incoming negative sentiments.

Similarly, the sharp fall in RSI further signifies weakness in the uptrend momentum with

similar trend in money flow index and accumulation pattern amid bearish volume

recorded in the last session.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The incoming sentiments appeared mixed while

the chance of possible price retracement in the coming periods has increased,

considering the weak bargain posture and the weakness observed in the uptrend

momentum. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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Diamond bank experienced continued bargain trend and sustained positive sentiments

in the week to record 8.3% gain as against 6.0% recorded in the previous week- the

outlook revealed low bargain sentiments and lacklustre trading pattern towards the stock

to record 14.88% price appreciation in the last 4weeks.

The stock appeared bearish in both short and mid-long term as revealed by price moving

average, indicating weak investors' appetite towards the stock in the recent time while

this buttressed the low bargain sentiments mentioned above.

More so, the candlestick pattern formed in the last trading day, revealed overwhelming

sell position during the session while the price lost uptrend momentum as revealed by

RSI.

Also, the divergent position of MACD suggests weakness in bargain drive as the stocks

could not sustain the new high of N2.6kobo recorded during the last session. The hugebearish volume recorded in the last session buttressed the weak bargain posture while

the southward trend in Money flow index and accumulation trend buttressed this further.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The incoming sentiments appeared negative as

the stock witnessed overwhelming sell position in the last session while bargain drive

appeared vanished accordingly, suggesting possible price retracement as revealed by

last candlestick formation. However, the uptrend may continue if the bulls could regain

consciousness. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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THE GAINERSLIVESTOCK experienced continued active bargain drive and sustained positive

sentiments in the week to record 21.1% gain as against 24.2% gain recorded in the

previous week- the outlook came in line with our position as envisaged in the previousreport while the trend revealed growing bargain tendency towards the stock with

104.21% price appreciation in the last three weeks.

The stock remained in overbought range as we had observed in the previous week,

closing above upper Bollinger band by 27.1% amid bullish mode in both mid-term and

long term period as revealed by price moving average. This further suggests good

chance of sustaining the uptrend. Also, the overbought posture of MACD further reveals

the stock trading at its top as noted above.

However, the price movement experienced slight weakness in uptrend momentum,

indicating weakness in bargain drive while the last candlestick pattern revealed presenceof profit takers during the session. RSI (momentum indicator) and money flow index also

recorded slight weakness, though yet to trend southward while volume trend remained

positive amid sustained accumulation.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the stock is overdue for price correction with

104.21% appreciation while trading at its top- overbought range. However, the uptrend

may extend in the next few sessions, considering the strong bargain drive and

accumulation trend observed during the week.

Note: a cautious bargain approach is advised as buying at the top is not usually

profitable. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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UBN experienced improved bargain trend and sustained positive sentiments in the week

to record 22.0% gain against 2.1% gain recorded in the previous week- The outlook

revealed sustained trend reversal in the last 5weeks with 46.69% price

appreciation, following the new support level at N3.17kobo recorded on 15th June2012.

The stock is currently trading within overbought range, trading above upper Bollinger

bands by 9.9% amid short term bullish posture- indicating improved chance to extend

uptrend.

Also, the position of RSI further revealed the stock trading at its top while similar trend

was revealed by MACD in the face of weak accumulation trend while volume traded

appeared significantly low far below volume moving average. More so, the price

experienced slight weakness while the last candlestick pattern revealed presence of the

bears.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: there is moderate chance for the stock to

sustain the uptrend in coming periods. Nevertheless, the stock may succumb to profit

taking tendency sooner, considering its overbought posture and weakness in

accumulation trend. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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THE LOSERS

ROADS experienced continued sell tendency and sustained negative sentiments in the

week to recorded -12.7% loss as against -4.9% loss recorded- the outlook revealedheavy sell tendency and strong bearish sentiments towards the stock, following the

prolonged flat posture while the stock dipped by -19.53% in the last two weeks.

The stock closed below its bottom Bollinger bands by 13.3% while remained bearish in

short term period as revealed by price moving average, suggesting increased possibility

to extend downtrend. The RSI further revealed depressed posture as the stock closed far

below its oversold region.

Also, continued and persistent distribution tendency was observed as revealed by

volume trend, indicating growing sell pressure towards the stock while money continued

to flow out of the stock as revealed by money flow index.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the stock may continue the downtrend due to

incoming and continued sell pressure towards the stock while incoming sentiments

remained negative. However, trend reversal is not in doubt as the oversold and

depressed posture of the stock may attract moderate bargain. The chart below showsMACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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ROE (%) 13.56% 11.35% 26.03% 1.86% 8.41% -48.27%

PAT Margin (%) 24.38% 15.43% 2.85% 1.25% 3.55% -117.49%

PBT Margin (%) 28.69% 23.74% 4.14% 1.83% 5.60% -151.58%

Revenue Growth 21.63% 48.50% -7.69% 19.00% 115.84% -38.08%

Proshare Research

Price Trend

Price Performance UBA DIAMONDBNK ROADS RTBRISCOE LIVESTOCK UBN

52 Weeks High 5.60 5.25 8.69 2.21 1.49 11.15

52 weeks Low 1.64 1.92 3.32 1.00 0.50 2.09

3 Month's (%) 64.64% -1.20% -17.03% 67.00% 79.52% 57.09%

6 Month's (%)87.45% 21.67% -17.03% 30.47% 75.29%

-53.82%

12 Month's (%)-

17.52%-50.60% 107.78% -20.10% 198.00% 97.87%

Price Trend

Current Price 4.33 2.47 7.21 1.67 1.49 4.65

15 Days MA 3.96 2.27 8.3 1.91 1.18 3.95

30 Days MA 3.88 2.28 8.5 1.69 1.08 3.70

50 Days MA 3.92 2.49 8.6 1.56 1.05 3.89

200 Days MA 3.03 2.63 8.03 1.38 0.82 4.53

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements

here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are

responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we makeany claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for

your guidance purpose only.

Sentiment Analysis Report for WE 130712 - NSE

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