Senior University Fall 2008 The Phantom Science Session 6
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Transcript of Senior University Fall 2008 The Phantom Science Session 6
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Senior University Fall 2008
The Phantom Science Session 6
The Rise & Fall(?) of the West
The Fat Lady Sings
Set Your Watch on Mountain Time
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““History is so indifferently rich that a case History is so indifferently rich that a case
for almost an conclusion from it can be for almost an conclusion from it can be
made by a selection of instancesmade by a selection of instances””
Will and Ariel Durant, “The Lessons of History”Will and Ariel Durant, “The Lessons of History”
Early Humans
Early to Class, that is.It’s a No, No when there’s a camera
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Never get to Class Early
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Now back to business
Remember the diamonds in Arkansas?
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Diamonds
Crater of Diamonds State Park Arkansas
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Diamonds
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Geologic Map USA
Diamonds
Diamonds
TexasVolcanics
DiamondVolcano
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Diamonds No DiamondsNo Diamonds
Now for Session 6
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At the close of the 1700’sNatural Philosophy (geology) was inharmony with the Western Ecclesiastical,Political, & Economic Power Structure of the Time!
THIS HARMONY WOULD NOT LAST LONG!!
Where we are in World History
Remember from Last Week
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The Great Nations and Empires ran on Their access to Iron and Coal
Transportation: by Foot or “Horse”Iron & Coal provided tools & Weapons
Remember from Last Week
Everything changes with the invention of the Steam Engine
Now Coal is truly KING!
Then, it was the Internal Combustion Engine
Now Great Nations run on Oil
Only the USA and Russia have large DOMESTIC Oil reserves
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Civilizations Time Lines 1700 TO 2008
Our focus today:1. Europe & USA: 19th & 20th Centuries
The Principal Players
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Iron and Coal Oil
Foot & “Horse” Steam Internal CombustionEngine
Essential Natural Resources Now
ElectricMotor
Coal or Nuclear
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Our focus today:1. Europe & USA: 19th & 20th Centuries
3. USA, Russia, & China: 21st Century
If you’ve got it flaunt it
Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting
2. Phantom Science comes Center StageYou ain’t seen nothing yet!
First: Europe & the USA in 19th & 20th Centuries Background
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The World 1500 – 1800 ADThe Rush for the Resources of the New World
Next: the Struggle in Europe
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Europe and theEastern Hemisphere
Conflicts for Iron & Coal 19th & 20th centuries
Wars & Concessions to Reallocate and Augment the Natural Resources of Europe
Oil
Oil for Engines 20th century
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The Scramble for Oil: 20th Century
USA48 states
USA: Only country in the world with abundant, DEVELOPED Iron, Coal, & Oil
Middle EastUSA, Shell Saudi ArabiaFrance, Britain, Shell,USA Iraq ,Iran, etc
USA VenezuelaUSA Libya
USA Indonesia
Lacked Oil
Oil joins Iron and Coal as essential to being World Class Nation
Energy in the USA Today
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Uses of all PetroleumSupply of all US Energy
by Source
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Daily Oil Production Worldwide(?)30 mm b/d
Daily Oil Production USA ‘50 – ‘08
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Worldwide Oil & Gas reserves Estimated 2030 (dbeau)
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Now: The Phantom Science takes Center Stage!
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RockSequences
GeneralGeologyGeologic
Maps
Europe 19th Century Pioneers of the Science of Geology
Mining
James Hutton: Father of Modern Geology
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00
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Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD Sun center of our universe
Tour
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James Hutton: Father of Modern Geology
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James Hutton: (1726-1797) Scottish gentleman farmer & physician
“The past history of our globe must be explained by what can be seen to be happening now”
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Geology’s MostFamous RockOutcrop:
Siccar Point:Eastern Scotland on the North Sea
What did Hutton learn here?
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James Hutton: (1726-1797)1.Rise & Fall of sea level = erosion & deposition2.Subterranean heat =
1. volcanoes & lavas 2. Veins of metal ores,3. Uplifts (mountains)4. rock folding, and faults
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James Hutton: Scottish gentleman farmer Complex Sequence of Geological Events
Can you figure out the geologic history of this rock outcrop?
1. 2.3.4. 5.5.
6.
7.
8.
Charles Lyell: Geological Pioneer1.Documented James Hutton’s work2.Defined “Uniformitarianism”
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00
50050010001000 2000200015001500500500 10001000
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD Sun center of our universe
Tour
s
Crusades
Greece Rome
Mar
co P
olo
Da V
inci
De R
e M
etal
ica
Kin
g Ja
mes
Bib
le
Jam
es H
utton
: (17
26-1
797)
Char
les L
yell:
Prin
ciple
s 183
0
Colu
mbu
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Charles Lyell: “Principles of Geology”, 1830Hutton’s Geology & “Uniformitarianism”
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Sir Charles Lyell, British Geology Compiler Principles of Geology, 1830
Uniformitarianism: Today’s Processes and rates of change define the past
William “Strata” Smith: Pioneer Geologic Map Maker
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00
50050010001000 2000200015001500500500 10001000
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD Sun center of our universe
Tour
s
Crusades
Greece Rome
Mar
co P
olo
Da V
inci
De R
e M
etal
ica
Kin
g Ja
mes
Bib
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Bish
op U
sshe
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Jam
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utton
: (17
26-1
797)
Char
les L
yell:
Colu
mbu
s 149
2
William “Strata” Smith: English Surveyor Father of the Geological Map
Will
iam
Sm
ith
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William “Strata” Smith, English Engineer
Smith created a Geologic Map of England while surveying construction of Canals
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William “Strata” Smith, English Engineer
Used fossils to Identify Rock Layers of the Same Age and Engineering Significance
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William “Strata” Smith’s Geologic Map of Great Britain
Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”The Book that changed the “world”: 1858
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00
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ChristianityChristianity
IslamIslam
10001000
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD Sun center of our universe
Tour
s
Crusades
Greece Rome
Mar
co P
olo
Da V
inci
De R
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etal
ica
Kin
g Ja
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Bib
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op U
sshe
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Jam
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utton
: (17
26-1
797)
Char
les L
yell:
Colu
mbu
s 149
2
Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”The Book that changed the “world”: 1858
Will
iam
Sm
ith
Char
les D
arw
in
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Charles Darwin (1809-1892)“Field Biologist and Geologist
Origin of Species: Natural Selection “The Survival of the Fittest”
Charles Darwin, age 32
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Two Hypotheses on the Origin of Species
PunctuatedEquilibriumNiles Eldredge & Steven Jay Gould, 1972
Gradual“Equilibrium”
Continental DriftAlfred Wegener, 1880 to 1930
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Alfred Wegener, 1880 to 1930 German Meteorologist Continental Drift Proposal
290 Million Years Ago 37 Million Years Ago
An Example: North America
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Continental Drift:North America drifts from Africa-South America
And then
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Continental Drift:North America drifts from South America& Eurasia from Africa from South America
An Example: North America & Texas
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Continental DriftNorth America through the Ages
Continental Drift Theory:Embraced in Europe in the 20’s & 30’sAccepted in USA in the 50’s & 60’s
Absolute Age Dating: The Giant Step of the 1950 & 60’s
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“How old is our earth?”1658 Bishop Ussher: 6000 years
1785 James Hutton: 30 to 50 million years1830 Sir Charles Lyell: 80 million years
1899 John Joly, 90 million years (sea salts)
Lord Kelvin, 24 to 40 million yearsHeat flow
1947 to 1960 Radioactivity, 4.8 BILLION YEARS OLD!!
Future ??????
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1800 1900 2000
1788 Hutton, Theory of the Earth 1815 William Smith, Fossil correlation maps
1830 Charles Lyell, Principles of Geology 1859 Charles Darwin, Origin of Species
“Absolute” Age Dating of Rocks
Absolute Age Continental Drift
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J. Laurence Kulp: Columbia University Geochemist research in radiometric dating included :-- Potassium-argon dating[6] [7]
- Rubidium-strontium dating [8]
- Uranium-lead dating [9]
- Carbon-14 [10]
The Currently Accepted Geologic Ages
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Geochemistry: Absolute Age Dating
Absolute Age DatingMeasuring the Decay of Radio Active Minerals
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Age Dating using Uranium 238Radioactive Decay of Uranium 238
Decay products
Method Assumes: Today’s rate of Decay is the same as it was in the pastMapping the Rocks under the Oceans
End ProductLead 206
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Plate Tectonics: Deep Sea Rock Cores & Rock Structures
Three American Oceanographic InstitutionsColumbia University/Lamont, New YorkWoods Hole, MassachusettsScripps, San Diego, California
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Lamont Geological Observatory, 1949
Maurice Ewing1906 – 1974
Ocean Surveys:Bottom CoresRock layers & structure (seismic)Gravity & Magnetic readings
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Tracks of Deep Sea Ships collectingBottom Cores & Imaging Rocks below Sea Bed
Deep Sea Data: Bases for Plate Tectonics: The Deformation caused by the Collision of Continents
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Seafloor Rocks & Ocean Crust Ocean Margin Deformation
Mountain Building
New Oceanic Crust
And all this lead to the theory of Plate Tectonics
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Plate TectonicsCollision of Continents
Appalachian MountainsAppalachian Mountains
Mountain BuildingMountain Building
Collision Ancient ContinentsCollision Ancient Continents
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ScandinaviaScandinavia
FranceFrance
Spain
Crushed & Melted into mountain range
Mountain Range due to Plate Collisions
Mississippian Time340 million years ago
England
Plate Tectonic Reconstruction: 340 myp
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North America: North America: Northward Drift during Pennsylvanian Time Northward Drift during Pennsylvanian Time
Mississippian TimeMississippian Time 340 million years ago340 million years ago
Pennsylvanian Time Pennsylvanian Time 300 million years ago300 million years ago
Texas at equatorTexas at equator
Greenland rotating counter clockwiseGreenland rotating counter clockwise
Geophysics: Reflection Seismic Imaging the Earth’s Crust
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1800 1900 2000
1788 Hutton, Theory of the Earth 1815 William Smith, Fossil correlation maps
1830 Charles Lyell, Principles of Geology 1859 Charles Darwin, Origin of Species
Petrography (classification of rocks): from early times
Mining geology: from the beginning of time to the present Crystallography: gem stones: from the beginning of human history to the present Geophysical Subsurface Imaging
Petrology: Origin of Rocks
Mineralogy: Components of rocks: Microscopes, X-ray diffractionStratigraphy : Stratigraphic Column, paleo-geol ogic Maps
Geochemistry : Radio age dating Geophysics: Subsurface imaging
Continental Drift
Exploring for water, petroleum, and oresGeophysics: Subsurface Imaging: 1930 -Present
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Geophysics: Subsurface Imaging
Sea Level
20,000 feet
Layers of rock
Deformed and faulted layers of rock
Possible oil & gas accumulations
How might subsurface imaging be used here in Williamson County?
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The Oil & Gas Potential Williamson County
Oil in Ancient Volcanic & Chalk Rocks
Volcanic Reservoirs in Williamson Co.
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ThrallField
CoplandField
City of
Taylor
Round Rock
Georgetown
Sun City
Route 79
ChapmanAbbott Field
Volcanic Reservoirs in Williamson Co.
Example: Thrall Field: Oil in Volcanic Rock
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Pilot Knob Volcano Austin Area, TX
How the Thrall Volcano might have looked
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Taylor Marl (cap rock)
Hypothetical Cross Section: Thrall Oil Field
Thrall Field: Depleted in 1030’sIs there any oil left in the ground at Thrall Field?
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Route 79Thrall
Thrall
Oil Field
ThrallOil FieldFeb. 22, 1915
Thrall Field: produced 2 million barrels of oilEst. remaining oil = 8 million barrels
How might we recover some of those 8 million barrels of oil?
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SurfaceSh
ot
Receive
r
Subsurface Imaging
Selecting the Drill Site
Target Reservoir Beds
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Route 79Thrall
Thrall
Oil Field
Defining the Shapeof the Volcanic Trapat the Thrall Field
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Subsurface Image
How might we recover some of those 8 million barrels of oil?
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Surface
Drilling Rig
Drill Hole
Oil
Prospective Formation
“Horizontal” Drilling looking for Old OilConventional Drill Hole
DirectionalDrill Hole
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Thrall
Oil Field
Re-drilling theThrall Oil Field
Surface Drill Site
Exploring for New Fields
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New Oil in the Thrall Area Seismic Lines
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New Oil in the Thrall Area Drilling the Prospects
Thrall Northeast
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Chapman Abbott FieldJan. 18, 1930
Seismic Evaluation Chapman-Abbott Field Area
Why is this oil activity economical now?
Just do the Math
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Just do the MathUsing the early 1950’s as a base line:
Gasoline: $0.30/gallon
Oil: $3.00/barrel
Investment Profitability: $500/daily barrel
Base: $0.30/gal; $3.00/bbl; $500/ daily bbl
What’s the situation today?
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Today: Adjust for Inflation
Adjusting for Inflation: X 10
Gasoline: $0.30/gal X 10= $3.00/gallon
Oil: $3.00/barrel X10= $30.00/barrel
Investment Profitability: $500/daily bbl X 10= $5000/daily bbl
$3.00/gal; $30.00/bbl; $5000/ daily bbl
But why is gas $4.00/gallonand oil over $100.00/barrel?
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Today: Adjusting for the Cost of Finding New Oil
Today Investment Profitabilities go as high as:
$3.00/gal; $30.00/bbl; $5000/ daily bbl
$15,000 to $25,000/daily barrelThis is 3 to 5 X’s the cost of “old” Oil
What can we expect to pay for gasoline as the “old” oil is depleted and we must use only “new” oil?
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In the next 15 years:Gasoline: $3.00 X 3 to 5$9.00 to $15.00/gallon
Oil: $90.00 to $150.00/bbl
How does all this impact the rise and fall of nations?
Nations having their own oil, iron, and coal have a huge advantage over those who must buy oil, iron, and coal
Let’s look at the national distribution of iron, coal, and oil
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Major Iron Ore Producing Countries
Note: England, Germany & FranceIron Ore largely depleted
USA: Iron Ore Reserves greatly depleted
Putin’s Russia:Substantial Reserves
Let’s look at the worlds leading Nationstheir Iron, Coal, Oil in the last 100 years
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USA: Iron, Coal, Oil: 1950The beginning of the Cold War
We had huge, developed domestic resources of Fe, Coal, and Iron
What about Europe just after WW II
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Europe: Iron, Coal, Oil: 1950
Western USSR
NowEngland, German, & FranceResources almost depleted!
Who will have competitive domestic resources in the 21st century?
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USA: Iron, Coal, Oil: 2050
We will be importing almost all of the Fe, Coal, Oil & Gas we need
This will make it very difficult to maintain our world leadership
Now look at Putin’s Russia
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Europe: Iron, Coal, Oil: 2050
Putin’s Russia
And this doesn’t include Asiatic or Arctic Russia
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Alaska
Canada
Norway
Russia
High Arctic #1 Area forNew Oil & Gas
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Ring of Mountains
Internal
Mountai
ns
Rivers &Deltas
Russia #2 Area forNew Oil & Gas
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The Mountain Foothills Play
Russia #2 Area forNew Oil & Gas
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Canada
Alaska
Greenland
Norway
Russia
Possible Arctic Shipping Route
“Melted” Ice Cap
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Various Schemes to divide the Arctic Ocean
Out to the edge of the continents
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Various Schemes to divide the Arctic Ocean
Centered on the North Pole
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Various Schemes to divide the Arctic Ocean
Proportionate to “Land Area”
Canada
Alaska
Russia
The USA and Western Europe may be,Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting!
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Ring of Mountains
Internal
Mountai
ns
Rivers &Deltas
RussiaNew Oil & GasRussia:
Plus more than half of the Arctic!What can we do?
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Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting
USA
Western Europe
Putin’s
Russia
What can we do?
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Go Electric!
Develop our vast lignite coal deposits
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Our untapped lignite coal deposits
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This Belongs to You
The Fat Lady’s Song:
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The Fat Lady’s Song:Principle Energy: Lignite not Petroleum
Go Electric: Transportation & Heating
Maintain Friendly Sources for Iron
Petroleum: Use only Domestic Production
Supplemental Energy: Nuclear, Wind, Solar Set your watch on Mountain Time
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Set Your Watch onSet Your Watch on Mountain TimeMountain Time
It’s your choice!It’s your choice!
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A Future Worth Leaving for our Grandchildren
Mohonk Mountain House, New Pultz, NY
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Coming Next Spring at Senior University
You Want to Invest in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production?
This is What You Should Know about Geological Risk & Production Profitability
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Thanks for the Memories!!
The Best is Yet to Come!