Seneca Global Income & Growth ( LSE : SIGT LN) · Competitive risk-return profile since adopting...

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More of the same please! Seneca Global Income & Growth Trust plc (SIGT) has continued to deliver on expectations: an equity-competitive return alongside an attractive dividend yield, achieved with a lower volatility than equity markets. This has helped SIGT to sustain its premium and share issuance, with a visible pathway to reaching the £100m market cap threshold. The tactical asset allocation has been shifting away from equities, particularly within developed markets, as the managers grow cautious of the maturing economic cycle. This is consistent with the team’s systematic approach to portfolio management and should help mitigate future market downturns. Further, the potential IPO of unquoted AJ Bell presents an opportunity for significant upside in our view.

Delivering on expectations: strong track record supporting growth of asset base We note that on its current trajectory SIGT should cross the £100m market cap threshold in the near future, barring a substantial pull-back in markets. This will this help broaden the appeal of the Company to a wider investor base.

Tactical asset allocation: continuing to trim equity exposure The managers continue to trim equity exposure as they see the economic cycle progressing, particularly in developed markets, which has resulted in a notable zero weighting to US equities. This is a material position to take given that US equities represent c. 53% of the MSCI AC World index (source: MSCI as at 31 May 2018).

AJ Bell (unquoted, c. 3.2% of gross assets): exploring an IPO for late 2018/early 2019 In March 2018 AJ Bell began publicly exploring a potential IPO with a view to list in late 2018 or early 2019. This would likely see substantial value crystallised for SIGT: the holding was last re-valued in February 2018 at 830pps (which translates into a 19.5x historic P/E and 3.4% yield – see p.4). This compares favourably to the main quoted comparator, Hargreaves Lansdown, which was trading at a historic P/E of 42.7x and yield of 1.5% as of 18 June 2018 (source: Bloomberg).

Competitive risk-return profile since adopting revised investment policy

We examined the AIC Flexible Investment sector and created a narrower subset of peers based on key characteristics (see p.6). From thisnarrowed peer group we observe that SIGT has the highest Sharpe ratio of (1.02) compared to the closest peers with measurable track records.

Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Companies, CFE Research. Chart refers to data from table on page 6. Annualised NAV total

Return and volatility calculated using daily returns from 18/01/2012 to 15/06/2018.

SIGT

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Betterrisk:return

Worserisk:return

19 June 2018 | Corporate Company Note | Investment Companies: Flexible Investment

Equity Research | UK

Seneca Global Income & Growth ( LSE : SIGT LN)

Positive

Price / NAV (cum-fair) 174.0p / 170.7p

Discount (-) / Premium (+) +1.9%

Yield 3.7%

Market cap £84m

Net gearing (31 May 2018) 8.6% (max 25%)

Objective Over a typical investment cycle, to achieve a total return of at least CPI +6% pa after costs with low volatility, with the aim of and growing aggregate dividends at least in line with inflation, through the application of Multi-Asset Value Investment Policy.

www.senecaim.com/investment-trust

Benchmark CPI +6% pa, after costs1

Listing / Domicile Main Market / UK

Fund inception 19 March 1996

Revised investment policy 18 January 2012

Fund mgrs. Seneca Investment Managers

Discount control Zero discount policy

Mgmt. fee 0.90% pa of mkt. cap up to £50m,

0.65% pa of mkt. cap above £50m

Performance fee None

Ongoing charges (YE 30 Apr 2018) 1.45%

GBP TR (%)

0m- 12m

12m- 24m

24m- 36m

36m- 48m

48m- 60m

Since 18 Jan 2012

SIGT NAV 3.6 25.5 -0.6 8.3 9.1 87.2

SIGT Price 3.8 24.9 1.6 13.7 13.0 120.5

Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg. Data as of 19/06/2017. 1Over the course of a typical investment cycle (see p.7). Prior to 06/07/2017 was LIBOR GBP +3% after costs.

Markuz Jaffe, CFA Investment Companies Analyst +44 (0) 20 7894 8623 [email protected]

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Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18

GBP Total Returns, rebased SIGT cum-fair NAVSIGT Price

-20-15-10-505

10


Discount (cum-fair) and average (%)

2 Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research

Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Table of contents

Table of contents

Table of contents 2

Past performance 3

Portfolio analysis 4

Peer group comparison 6

Company details 7 Investment objective 7

Investment policy 8

Investment philosophy 8

Typical portfolio characteristics 8

The Investment Manager 8

Investment Manager: key personnel 9

Management fees 10

Dividend policy 10

Gearing 10

Discount management 10

Capital structure 11

The Board 11

Top shareholders 11

Investment process 12 Investment strategy and process 12

Risk management 13

Risks 14

Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research 3

Past performance Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018

Past performance

SIGT has successfully delivered on its objective since revising its investment policy Since adopting its revised investment policy on 18 January 2012, SIGT has achieved returns comparable with global equity markets, whilst successfully diversifying away much of the risk to result in a much lower volatility (see charts below). Further, this has been accomplished whilst paying an attractive dividend yield.

SIGT NAV returns sit between Global and UK equities... ...whilst volatility substantially lower than both

Source: Morningstar, CFE Research. Total returns in GBP rebased to 100 as at 18 January 2012. Source: Morningstar, CFE Research. Returns cover period 18/01/2012 to 15/06/2018, annualised

volatility calculated using daily return figures.

Zero discount policy plus modest premium helping to grow the asset base Since introducing the zero discount policy on 1 August 2016 SIGT’s shares have traded in a narrow band around NAV. When combined with the strong performance track record this has resulted in the Company sustaining a modest premium and being able to steadily issue shares.

We highlight how the tiered management fee (see p.9) should deliver cost savings for investors as the asset base grows further, as the proportion of assets being charged at the lower 0.65% management fee level increases. This is well demonstrated in the ongoing charges for the year to 30 April 2018 being 1.45%, versus 1.61% for the previous financial year.

Successful introduction of zero discount policy plus a small premium... ...has led to a stable share issuance, helping to grow the asset base

Source: Morningstar, CFE Research Source: Morningstar, CFE Research

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MSCI AC WorldSIGT NAVFTSE All-ShareFTSE Gilts All Stocks

SIGT NAVFTSE All-Share

FTSE Gilts All Stocks

MSCI AC World

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12.0%

14.0%

5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5%

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Ann. Volatiltiy

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Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Portfolio analysis

Portfolio analysis

Strategic asset allocation: Four asset classes, combination of direct and funds The managers actively allocate across four asset classes through a combination of direct investments (UK Equities) and third party open- and closed-end funds for all other asset classes, including Fixed Income and Specialist Assets (incl. Property).

Tactical asset allocation: trimming equities progressively In-line with recent trends, the managers continue to trim equity exposure as they see the economic cycle progressing. This is particularly the case in developed markets, and has manifested itself in a notable zero weighting to US equities. Additionally, the managers are avoiding ‘safe haven’ bonds (e.g. US Treasuries, Gilts) where the low yields on offer do not compensate for the risk of rising interest rates.

SIGT strategic and tactical allocation as at 31 May 2018, including permitted ranges

Source: Seneca Investment Management. Specialist Assets and Property have a combinbed asset allocation range of 0-50%.

Unquoted holding AJ Bell: IPO plan underway AJ Bell remains the only unquoted holding and is one of the portfolio’s largest positions being 3.2% of gross assets as at 31 May 2018. In March 2018 AJ Bell began exploring a potential IPO and has appointed advisers with a view to list in late 2018 or early 2019. In our view this would likely see substantial value crystallised for SIGT (see pricing below) and perhaps move across to the UK equity portfolio.

The holding was last re-valued in February 2018 at 830pps (which translates into a 19.5x historic P/E and 3.4% yield*) following Woodford Investment Management’s sale of AJ Bell shares to Invesco Perpetual, from the previous 700pps and 600pps set in June 2017 and May 2015 respectively. The managers believe this valuation is prudent and compares favourably to the main quoted comparator, Hargreaves Lansdown, which was trading at a historic P/E of 42.7x and yield of 1.5% as of 18 June 2018 (source: Bloomberg).

*based on FY ending 30 September 2017 fully diluted EPS and dividends declared. Source: AJ Bell Holdings.

About AJ Bell: AJ Bell is one of the UK’s primary providers of self–invested personal pensions (SIPPs) and one of the UK’s largest investment platforms and retail stockbrokers. More than 200% of SIGT’s initial investment has already been returned via income distributions and partial disposals.

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UK Equities Overseas Equities Fixed Income Specialist Assets Cash

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T al

loca

tion

, % o

f tot

al a

sset

s

SAA Upper range Lower range Current

TAA in summary: UK Equities: (underweight) despite being

sanguine on the UK equity sub-portfolio’s

valuation v. the wider market, exposure here has

been falling as the managers see the economy as

having recovered substantially, alongside the

background risk of Brexit negotiations.

Overseas Equities: (neutral) the managers see

the structural growth in emerging markets as

promising relative to developed markets, and

like ‘enhanced income’ strategies writing call

options to support income generation.

Specialist Assets, incl. Property: (overweight) this is seen as a great area to pick

up higher yielding alternatives to traditional

fixed income, that have low correlations to

equity markets whilst also benefitting from

inflation-linkage in some cases (e.g. real estate

and infrastructure).

Fixed Income: (underweight) exposure is

reduced as a result of the low yields on offer

from risk-free and investment grade bonds, with

holdings been focused on shorter-duration high-

yield bond strategies.

Unlisted investments are permitted up to 7.5% of

the portfolio by value, measured at the time of

investment.

However, the managers do not envisage holding

direct private equity / unlisted equity in general

and note that AJ Bell was very much an

exceptional investment, unlikely to be repeated

in the near future.


Portfolio analysis Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018

Asset allocation and income generation as at 31 May 2018, % of total assets

Source: Seneca Investment Management

Income generation diversified across asset classes Each asset class meaningfully contributes to income generation, which helps SIGT to pay a healthy fully covered dividend (see p.9) whilst also having some ‘dry powder’ available to take advantage of market corrections, with a cash balance of 6.6% as at 31 May 2018.

Top holdings demonstrate flexibility between uses of closed- and open-end funds It is noteworthy that all of the asset classes, aside from UK equities which are mostly held directly, contain examples of both closed- and open-end fund investments. This plays well to SIGT itself being a closed-end fund, as positions can be built in less liquid funds, particularly within Specialist Assets, without having to worry about meeting daily redemptions at the SIGT level, unlike open-end multi-asset funds.

SIGT top 5 holdings by asset class as at 31 May 2018, % of total assets

Asset class Holding Weight (%) Description

UK Equity (direct) Babcock International Group 1.7 Provider of support services to public sector institutions

Ultra Electronics Holdings 1.6 Designer and manufacturer of electronic and electric systems for multiple end user sectors

Marks & Spencer 1.5 Retailer with c. 90% of sales being made in the UK

Britvic 1.5 A leading supplier and manufacturer of soft drinks

Marston’s 1.4 Independent brewing and pub retailing company operating across the UK

Overseas Equity CC Japan Income & Growth Trust 3.0 Closed-end Japanese equity fund paying a c. 2% dividend yield

HMG Global Emerging Markets Equity 2.8 Open-end Emerging Market equity fund with a value style and small-cap bias

Samarang Asian Prosperity 2.8 Open-end Asian equity fund with value style focus

Schroder Asian Income Maximiser 2.8 Open-end Asian equity fund using derivatives to enhance portfolio income

European Assets Trust 2.6 Closed-end European equity fund focusing on small- and medium-sized companies

Fixed Income Royal London Short Duration Global HY Bond 4.2 Open-end fund focusing on global short maturity sub-investment grade bonds

TwentyFour Select Monthly Income 2.0 Closed-end fund investing in less liquid areas of the credit market including ABS and HY

Templeton Emerging Markets Bond 1.9 Open-end fund investing in USD and local currency denominated emerging market bonds

Royal London Sterling Extra Yield Bond 1.0 Open-end fund investing in a broad range of global securities including unrated credits

N/A N/A

Specialist Assets AJ Bell Holdings 3.2 Unquoted financial services firm, a leading UK investment platform and SIPP provider

International Public Partnership 2.4 Closed-end infrastructure fund investing in global public or social infrastructure assets

Doric Nimrod Air Two 2.1 Closed-end aircraft leasing fund with each aircraft leased to Emirates Airline

Fair Oaks Income Fund 2.1 Closed-end fund investing in USD denominated CLO positions

DP Aircraft 1.9 Closed-end aircraft leasing fund with aircraft leased to Norweigan Air and Thai Airways

Total 42.5

Source: Seneca Investment Managers

30.1

24.0

30.3

9.16.6

25.3

20.2

40.6

13.2

0.70

10

20

30

40

50

UK Equities Overseas Equities Specialist Assets Fixed Income Cash

Asset Allocation Income Generation


Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Peer group comparison

Peer group comparison

Low number of multi-asset closed-end funds presents a classification challenge It is no secret that the Association of Investment Companies (“AIC”) Flexible Investment sector contains an eclectic mix of closed-end funds. Unlike in the open-end universe, the low number of multi-asset funds within the closed-end fund universe makes it harder to classify them into representative peer groups

AIC Flexible Investment sector: 18 peers, not all directly comparable to SIGT To find a suitable peer group for SIGT we first started by eliminating significant mismatches to the diversified multi-asset approach followed by SIGT within the AIC Flexible Investment sector’s 18 peers. These high level differences can be summarised as follows: Hansa Trust [HAN/HANA]: a single direct equity position represents c. 30% of NAV JZ Capital Partners [JZCP]: mainly private equity and real estate Miton Global Opps. [MIGO]: fund of closed-end funds seeking discounted assets Tetragon Financial Group [TFG]: mainly CLOs, hedge funds and private equity UIL [UTL]: highly levered equity fund focusing on a handful of sectors

Ranking by equity allocation: somewhat useful, not the full story By ranking the remaining peers by their equity allocation and then looking at volatility we can see a rough relationship. However outliers exist, such as RIT Capital Partners, Henderson Alternative Strategies, and Aberdeen Diversified Income & Growth; each makes substantial use of ‘alternatives’ that are not necessarily defensive (e.g. hedge funds). Therefore, even the equity-allocation driven approach taken by the Investment Association (“IA”) does not help to create distinct sub-groups. Also, the wide range of benchmarks / target returns used reduces the ease of drawing commonalities by using a common objective.

Those closest to SIGT in our view: FMPI, MATE, ADIG Looking for those with similar characteristics to SIGT across some key metrics (dividend yield, return objective, and volatility) a smaller number of peers emerge, namely: F&C Managed Portfolio Income, JPMorgan Multi-Asset, and Aberdeen Diversified Income & Growth. We note that SIGT has the highest Sharpe ratio at 1.02 (see table). However, it is also worth highlighting that ADIG’s was under different investment managers prior to Aberdeen’s appointment on 11 February 2017.

AIC Flexible Investment sector: ranking eligible peers by equity allocation*

Name Ticker

Mkt. cap.

(£m) Benchmark / target return

Equity alloc. (%)

Net gearing

(%)

5y ann. NAV

total return

5y ann. NAV

volatility Sharpe

ratio

Continuous discount control policy / target

Discount (%)

Dividend yield

(trailing, %)

Establishment IT ET/ 41 Abs. returns 98 0 6.1 11.9 0.34 None -14.7 5.1 New Star NSI 78 None 88 0 7.4 10.2 0.54 None -27.6 0.7 F&C Mgd. Port. Growth FMPG 75 FTSE All-Share 82 0 13.1 9.6 1.16 Max. 5% 0.4 2.7 F&C Mgd. Port. Income FMPI 60 FTSE All-Share 67 0 10.5 8.6 0.99 Max. 5% 1.5 4.0 JPMorgan Multi-Asset MATE 89 6% pa. 67 11 Insufficient track record Near Zero -6.1 4% target Seneca Global Inc. & Gr. SIGT 84 CPI +6% 54 9 10.2 8.0 1.02 Zero 2.0 3.7 Ruffer Investment Co. RICA 414 2x BoE rate 41 0 4.0 5.9 0.35 Max. 5% 0.8 0.8 Personal Assets PNL 883 None 39 0 4.2 5.6 0.39 Zero 0.8 1.4 Inv. Perp. Select Bal. IVPB 10 LIBOR +5% 38 45 Insufficient track record +/-2% of NAV -3.0 N/A RIT Capital Partners RCP 3,224 RPI +3% 36 10 9.6 11.5 0.67 None 7.6 1.6 Henderson Alt. Strategies HAST 108 FTSE World 20 0 1.7 7.8 N/A** None -18.8 1.7 Aberdeen Div. Inc. & Gr. ADIG 401 LIBOR +5.5% 18 11 4.8 10.7 0.26 Max. 5% 0.6 3.2 Capital Gearing CGT 240 RPI 13 0 5.5 3.4 1.03 Near Zero 0.7 0.7

Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Companies, CFE Research. *Equity allocation is listed equity, not including private equity; CFE Research estimates used where clear disclosure not made. Annualised NAV

total Return and volatility calculated using weekly returns from 18/01/2012 to 15/06/2018. Discount is cum-fair. Sharpe ratio uses a risk free rate of 2.0%. **N/A shown since negative figure.

The Association of Investment Companies

provides the sector classification for closed-end

funds, including SIGT.

(www.theaic.co.uk)

The Investment Association provides the sector

classifications for open-end funds. This is driven

by the allocation to equity (IA Mixed Investment

0-35% / 20-60% / 40-85% Shares) or otherwise

being placed in the IA Flexible Investment

sector.

(www.theinvestmentassociation.org)

Each have a comparable dividend yield (c. 4%),

return target (c. 6%, or the c. 8% average equity

return in the case of FMPI), and volatility (c. 8-

10%; we note that MATE will target 2/3 the

volatility of equity markets, and ADIG’s revised

mandate will target a volatility lower than equity

markets: the MSCI AC World’s is c. 10%).


Company details Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018

Company details

Seneca Global Income & Growth Trust plc (SIGT – the “Company”) was launched on 19 March 1996 as The Taverners Trust, and on 19 August 2005 the name was changed to Midas Income and Growth Trust following Midas Capital Partners being appointed manager. Following the acquisition of Midas Capital Partners (which in the interim had become part of Miton plc) by Seneca Asset Managers in 2014, the Company changed its name to Seneca Global Income & Growth Trust plc on 1 October 2014.

A change to the investment objective, investment policy, and other terms took place on 18 January 2012. In summary:

Benchmark changed from 8.0% p.a. hurdle to LIBOR +3%. This was subsequently revised to be CPI +6% pa after costs, following the 6 July 2017 AGM.

Core allocation to overseas equities increased to 25% from 15% Core allocation to fixed income reduced to 15% from 25% AMC reduced to 0.9% from 1.0% and on market cap rather than net assets. A tiered

fee of 0.65% on market cap above £50m was introduced from 1 July 2014. Dividend rebased to 5.20p from 6.52p Annual continuation vote introduced, starting at the 2013 AGM

We highlight that the new benchmark introduced (UK CPI +6% after costs) following the 6 July 2017 AGM is a higher return target than the previous (3m LIBOR +3%). Thus the change in benchmark was not an attempt to flatter relative returns, but to better reflect the long-term return objective.

CPI +6% benchmark compared to LIBOR +3%

Source: Morningstar, CFE Research

Investment objective

Over a typical investment cycle, the Company will seek to achieve a total return of at least CPI plus 6 per cent per annum after costs with low volatility, and with the aim of growing aggregate annual dividends at least in line with inflation, through the application of Multi-Asset Value Investment Policy.

The Board believes that real returns are best measured over a typical investment cycle, which tend to last anywhere between 5-10 years and are in sync with business cycles. According to the Bank of England, the typical cycle length in the UK since 1701 has ranged from 5.1 to 8.5 years. A "typical" investment cycle is defined as one in which various asset classes produce total real returns over the entire cycle that are broadly in line with their historic long-term average real returns.

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UK CPI +6%

3m LIBOR +3%

SIGT NAV


Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Company details

Investment policy

The asset classes included in the Company's portfolio are UK and overseas equities, fixed income securities, and specialist assets. The Company's Investment Manager aims to add value through both strategic and tactical asset allocation within a range for each asset class.

The Company will not invest more than 7.5% of gross assets in any individual direct equity or fixed income investment or more that 10% of gross assets in any specialist collective investment scheme or product (in each case, measured at the time of investment). The Company will not invest more than 7.5% of gross assets in unquoted securities and will not hold more than 25% of its gross assets in cash. The Company does not intend to hedge currencies although some local currency exposure may be hedged within the individual holdings themselves.

Investment philosophy

Multi-asset value investing Seneca Investment Managers (“Seneca”) follows a value-based approach to multi-asset investing which is applied to all firm’s mandates. The managers believe this focus outperforms over the long-run and prevents overpaying for assets. They typically look to invest in assets that are undervalued and seek to deliver income and capital growth.

Typical portfolio characteristics

Blend of direct and indirect investments The Company classifies investments into five key categories: UK equities, overseas equities, fixed income, and specialist assets. Exposure is achieved via both direct investments (UK and overseas equities) and indirect investments (all other asset classes) in open- and closed-end funds. The portfolio typically comprises 50-60 positions at any one time.

The managers also have the ability to invest directly in overseas equities, and in UK equities via indirect third party or in-house managed funds. This flexibility was introduced at the 6 July 2017 AGM, but directly held overseas equities have not been introduced to-date.

The Investment Manager

Under the AIFMD regulatory framework PATAC Limited (which was already the Company’s Secretary and Administrator) was appointed as the AIFM in April 2018. PATAC has then delegated portfolio management back to Seneca, with Seneca absorbing the costs of the AIFM.

Seneca Investment Managers Seneca is a Liverpool-based asset manager established in 2002 and acquired by Seneca Asset Managers in 2014. Its directors and staff hold a substantial minority share in the firm’s parent company and its fund managers have significant personal investments in the funds they manage.

Assets under management as of 31 May 2018 were £568m and comprise the Company, two open-end funds, and a number of segregated mandates. This has grown substantially from £300m since the last time of our writing (February 2017) as a result of Seneca being awarded the contract to manage a ‘white label’ range of five funds for a third party.

The management agreement is terminable by either party on twelve months’ notice.

www.senecaim.com



Investment Manager: key personnel

The team comprises five fund managers each of whom is responsible for the research within their asset class, or tactical asset allocation in the case of Peter Elston. All buy and sell decisions are discussed by the whole team.

Following the retirement of Alan Borrows (previously senior fund manager and fixed income research specialist) on 31 December 2017, the team was joined by Gary Moglione on 30 April 2018. The team’s responsibilities are now as follows:

Peter Elston - asset allocation research and CIO Peter Elston joined Seneca in November 2014, was appointed CIO in April 2015 and has been involved directly with SIGT since March 2016. He maintains the lead oversight role on the Company and is responsible for Seneca’s investment process and management of the investment team. He is also responsible for macro research and asset allocation. He spent most of his career in Asia, first managing Asian small- and large-cap funds for Mercury Asset Management, and more recently at Aberdeen Asset Management where he was appointed head of its Asian multi-asset business in 2012. He graduated from Trinity College, Cambridge University with an MA in Oriental Studies and Maths.

Mark Wright - UK equity research Mark Wright is responsible for UK equity research across Seneca’s mandates, and also has oversight of the LF Seneca Diversified Growth Fund. He began his career at Seneca after graduating from University of York with a BSc degree in Economics, and is a CFA Charterholder.

Richard Parfect - specialist assets research Richard Parfect applies Seneca’s value driven approach to his focus on specialist assets, including property. He has oversight of the LF Seneca Diversified Income Fund. He is a Fellow of the CISI and was a founder of Seneca Investment Management in 2002. He previously worked as a UK equity analyst at Merseyside Pension Fund and started his career at Neilson Cobbold.

Tom Delic – emerging market third party fund research Tom Delic is responsible for emerging market equity and fixed income third party fund selection alongside Gary Moglione. He has worked in the investment industry since 2009 after graduating from the University of Liverpool with a first class degree in Mathematics with Finance. He began his career as an investment analyst for Royal Liver Asset Managers and later joined Seneca IM in October 2011.

Gary Moglione – developed market third party fund research Gary Moglione joined Seneca in April 2018 and is responsible for developed market overseas equity and fixed income third party fund selection alongside Tom Delic. He has worked in the investment industry since 1999 with a major portion of this specialising in fund selection both on a fund of funds and a multi-manager basis. He has previously worked as a fund manager for Royal Liver Asset Management where he managed two of their multi-manager funds (UK Equity and Global Equity). He then joined the multi-asset team at Pioneer Investment Management (later to be taken over by Amundi Asset Management) to manage equity assets in their fund of fund range.


Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Company details

Management fees

The management fee payable is calculated by reference to the Company’s market capitalisation, at a rate of 0.90% p.a. on market capitalisation up to £50m, and 0.65% above this. The fee is chargeable 50% to capital and 50% to revenue. There is no performance fee.

Dividend policy

The Company aims to grow aggregate annual dividends at least in line with inflation.

Fourth interim dividend sets the level for first three of following financial year The Company pays three interim dividends of an equal amount, with a fourth interim dividend announced after the end of the financial year (xd May, paid June) that sets the level for the first three interim dividends of the following financial year, barring unforeseen circumstances. In deciding the level of the fourth interim dividend the Board takes into account current year performance and future year prospects.

SIGT dividend history under current investment policy, since 18 January 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Company data. Dividends for FY2019 assume FY2018’s fourth dividend of 1.64pps is at least maintained, as

indicated in the FY2018 results.

Gearing

Tactical gearing: long-term 10% level, expected 5-15% range Gearing is used tactically to enhance returns where this is considered appropriate to do so; the current maximum limit set by the Board is 25% of net assets, however Seneca see 10% as a long-term average level, ranging from 5% to 15% throughout the investment cycle.

Provided via £14m three year rolling debt facility SIGT has in place a £14m three year rolling debt facility with the Royal Bank of Scotland (£7m drawn as at 31 May 2018). The margin on the facility is LIBOR +1.10% for drawn amounts and 0.30% fixed for undrawn amounts.

Discount management

Zero discount control policy On 1 August 2016 a Discount Control Mechanism (“DCM”) was introduced which aims to ensure the Company’s shares trade very close to NAV through a combination of share buybacks at a small discount when supply exceeds demand and the issue of new shares at a small premium when demand exceeds supply. The ultimate goal of the DCM is to help grow the Company’s size which, in turn, should increase the appeal and help improve liquidity of the shares.

1.30 1.34 1.40 1.47 1.52 1.58 1.64

1.30 1.34 1.40 1.47 1.52 1.58 1.64

1.30 1.34 1.40 1.47 1.52 1.58 1.641.35 1.40 1.47 1.52 1.58 1.64 1.64

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2013(5.25p)

2014(5.43p)

2015(5.67p)

2016(5.93p)

2017(6.14p)

2018(6.38p)

2019(min 6.56p)

penc

e pe

r sh

are

Financial years ending 30 April

4th

3rd

2nd

1st

Ongoing charges were 1.45% for the year ending

30 April 2018. We highlight that fees are

charged on market capitalisation, providing an

incentive for management to maintain a narrow

discount. Further, the substantial step-down in

fees as part of the tiering will provide substantial

cost savings to shareholders as assets rise.

Dividends are paid in Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec with

shares going ex-dividend in Feb/May/Aug/Nov

respectively.

For the financial year to 30 April 2018, the

Company paid a total dividend of 6.38p

representing an increase of 3.9% compared to

the previous financial year, whilst UK CPI

inflation as at 30 April 2018 stood at 2.4%.

Dividend cover for the year was 1.07x, whilst the

revenue reserve stood at c. 3.23pps as at 30

April 2018.

Net gearing stood at 8.6% as at 31 May 2018

7.34m shares were issued (including those re-

issued from treasury), and 1m shares were

bought back during the year to 30 April 2018.

This resulted in a net issuance of 6.34m shares

(c. £11.1m).



The Directors have authority (subject to yearly renewal) to buy back up to 14.99% and to issue up to 20% of the shares in issue at the beginning of the financial year. Under no circumstances should any issue of new shares result in a dilution of the NAV per share.

A further 10% of the issued share capital as at 1 March 2018 was permitted to be issued following approval at a General Meeting held on 28 March 2018. The Board are seeking to renew this additional issuance at the forthcoming AGM (to be held on 13 July 2018) for an aggregate 30% split across two resolutions (one for 10% and another extra for a further 20%).

Annual continuation vote – proposal to remove requirement following 2018 AGM The Company is required to propose an ordinary resolution at the AGM each year to continue as an investment trust. However, as noted in the Chairman’s statement in the annual results for the year to 30 April 2018, due to declining turnout at AGMs the Board are proposing a resolution at the 13 July 2018 AGM to remove this requirement. Should the DCM be suspended or withdrawn for any reason in the future, the Board would explore the possible re-instatement of a continuation vote.

Capital structure

48,096,361 ordinary shares as of 31 May 2018 (none held in treasury).

The Board

Richard Ramsay (Chairman, independent non-exec) Richard Ramsay was formerly an investment banker with considerable experience of the investment trust sector gained as a Managing Director at Barclays de Zoete Wedd and a director at Intelli Corporate Finance. His experience also covers the fund management sector as a director with Ivory & Sime, the leisure sector as finance director at Aberdeen Football Club, the energy sector as a managing director at Ofgem and the public sector as a director at the Shareholder Executive.

Ian Davis (Audit Committee Chairman, independent non-exec) Ian Davis was formerly a director of Corporate Finance with Hoare Govett Limited until 2002 having previously worked in Equity Capital Markets at De Zoete Bevan Limited and corporate finance at Baring Brothers & Co. Limited. Prior to this he qualified as a chartered accountant with Price Waterhouse.

James McCulloch (Independent non-exec) James McCulloch was previously Executive Chairman of Speirs & Jeffrey Ltd with over 30 years’ experience in private client investment and portfolio management. He is a chartered FCSI having previously qualified as a Chartered Accountant with Coopers & Lybrand.

Top shareholders SIGT top 10 shareholders, 31 May 2018

Name Holding (%)

Hargreaves Lansdown 10.2 Alliance Trust Savings 9.0 Hedley 8.7 AJ Bell 8.0 Rathbones 5.6 Interactive Investor 5.0 Charles Stanley 4.6 EFG Harris Allday 4.5 Alington Ruthin 4.0 Brewin Dolphin 3.7

Source: RD:IR

As of 30 April 2018 Richard Ramsay held

133,014 ordinary shares, compared to a

remuneration of £24,500 pa.

As of 30 April 2018 Ian Davis held 92,796

ordinary shares, compared to a remuneration of

£22,000 pa.

As of 30 April 2018 James McCulloch held 95,000

ordinary shares, compared to a remuneration of

£20,000 pa.

Retail investors make up a significant portion of

the share register:


Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Investment process

Investment process

Investment strategy and process

The Company takes a value approach to multi-asset investing. Through a balanced portfolio that has both market and non-market correlated components, it aims to deliver a combination of:

Capital growth (real returns over the long-term) and Dividends growing ahead of inflation with an attractive yield While maintaining lower levels of volatility compared to equities This is done by using both: A top-down strategic and tactical approach to asset classes and markets within

defined ranges, and A bottom-up approach to selecting individual investments as the best ideas within

each asset class Strategic asset allocation (“SAA”): designed to meet long-term objectives The Company has a strategic asset allocation (see p.4) designed to ensure that it meets its long-term objectives both in terms of growth and income whilst also controlling risk and maintaining well-diversified sources of income.

Active management: five sources of value-add The managers seek to add value above and beyond the strategic asset allocation at five levels: Through tactical asset allocation And, via stock and fund selection within each asset class: UK Equities Overseas Equities Fixed Income Specialist Assets (including Property) However, over time they expect selection will be the bigger contributor to performance.

Tactical asset allocation (“TAA”): macro view drives weightings relative to SAA In addition to the SAA, a TAA is used to take advantage of medium-term value opportunities. Peter Elston is responsible for this, alongside having portfolio oversight responsibilities (process implementation, cash and cash flow management). Key macro indicators that Peter monitors include inflation and unemployment (as key central bank metrics) alongside watching for yield curve inversion as a recession signal; his view then drives the Company’s weightings of each asset class relative to the SAA base-case.

Majority vote required for a TAA change or a new investment Finally, each specialist is responsible for picking their best ideas within each asset class. A majority vote is required by the investment committee (consisting of the whole fund management team) for a TAA change or for a new investment to be bought. The team meet weekly to discuss research ideas, valuations, positions, and any other issues that have arisen. Also, each team member continuously uploads meeting and research notes onto Seneca’s shared internal platform and these are also discussed at the weekly meeting.


Investment process Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018

UK equities: direct and indirect exposure, quality mid-cap focus Mark Wright likes to run with c. 20 equal-weight holdings in the direct UK equity sub-portfolio. He has a bias for high quality mid-caps that are also paying an appealing level of dividends. A key driver behind this is the often under-researched nature of mid-caps, and this combination of factors often leads to buying high quality names that have fallen out of favour. Mark will endeavour to meet management before investing, and performs his own financial analysis and modelling to calculate an estimate of intrinsic value based on his own conservative forecasts.

Overseas equities: seeking value oriented, stock picking managers Tom Delic and Gary Moglione see c. 10 holdings as the optimal level for indirect overseas equity exposure and their analysis mainly focuses on qualitative factors: the manager should be using a high conviction, value driven approach with an understandable and repeatable process driven by stock selection and a long-term focus. They also prefer defensive managers that can deliver returns with lower risk than their benchmark indices. Quantitative factors such as a high active share and low turnover then make up the balance. They also prefer closed-end funds where available.

Fixed income: targeting a higher yield than warranted by risk taken The overriding objective for the fixed income allocation is to achieve a higher yield than is warranted by the risk taken. Tom Delic and Gary Moglione aim to find managers that benefit from large in-house credit analyst teams that can add value without having overly concentrated portfolios. As a result of the low yields on offer from risk-free and investment grade bonds, exposure has been focused on shorter-duration high-yield bond strategies. Further, the allocation can be made via either open- or closed-end funds, and as a cost-saving measure risk-free bonds such as UK Gilts can be held directly.

Specialist assets (including Property): searching for uncorrelated income Richard Parfect focuses on obtaining income that is uncorrelated with equity markets, preferably where the underlying asset value has some inflation-linkage and downside protection. Richard places an emphasis on being able to trust the fund manager, and sees the Seneca value style feeding in as the upside potential each specialist asset opportunity presents.

Risk management Controlling investment risk through asset allocation

Source: Seneca Investment Managers, April 2018

The flexibility to invest directly in overseas

equities was introduced at the 6 July 2017 AGM.

However, directly held overseas equities have

not been introduced to-date.

The non-equity investments seek to further

diversify the portfolio by reducing correlation

with equity markets, resulting in lower volatility

of returns, whilst also enhancing income

generation.

Specialist assets comprised 30.3% of assets and a

disproportionately higher 40.6% of income

generation as at 31 May 2018.

Controlled via stock selection and TAA

Risk is controlled both at the individual

equity/fund selection level as described above,

and via the TAA. The latter involves adjusting

the overall allocation to equity and the level of

gearing used at the company level. Both of these

are done in a progressive, countercyclical fashion

(as in the chart to the right) driven by Peter

Elston’s research and view on the business cycle.

Seneca sees equity allocation movements of a

few %pts every over a period of months as a

reasonable pace to adjust risk exposure. Over

time this can clearly lead to substantial

positioning against the SAA; for example

currently the TAA equity allocation is c. 54%

versus 60% for the SAA base-case. Further,

Seneca can see a case where the TAA moves

even lower to around 40-45% equity if the equity

market/economy continues to exhibit ‘peak-

cycle’ characteristics.


Seneca Global Income & Growth | 19 June 2018 Risks

Risks

The principal risks faced by the Company are set out below:

Investment and strategy

Inappropriate strategy, including country and sector allocation, stock selection and the use of gearing, could lead to poor returns for shareholders.

Market

The Company’s assets consist principally of listed equities and fixed income securities and its greatest risks are in consequence market-related. In addition to ordinary movements in the prices of the Company’s investments and the loss that the Company might suffer through holding investments in the face of negative market movements, the Company’s use of gearing necessarily amplifies this risk.

Financial

The Company’s investment activities expose it to a variety of financial risks that include market price risk, foreign currency risk, interest rate risk and liquidity and credit risk.

Earnings and dividend

The earnings that underpin the amount of dividends declared and future dividend growth are generated by the Company’s underlying portfolio. Fluctuations in earnings resulting from changes to the underlying portfolio or changes in the tax treatment of the dividends or interest received by the Company could reduce the level of dividends received by shareholders.

Operational

The Company relies upon the services provided by third parties and is reliant on the control systems of the Investment Manager and the Company’s other service providers. The security and/or maintenance of, inter alia, the Company’s assets, dealing and settlement procedures, and accounting records depend on the effective operation of these systems.

Regulatory

The breach of regulatory rules could lead to a suspension of the Company’s stock exchange listing or financial penalties. Breach of Sections 1158 to 1159 of the Corporation Tax Act 2010 could lead to the Company being subject to tax on chargeable gains.

Key man

In order to reduce key man risk, Seneca operates a team approach to fund management, with each member of the team contributing to the performance of the Company through their research specialisations.

Regulatory Disclaimer and Disclosures

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Market Abuse Regulation

The following tables set out conflicts of interest disclosable under the Market Abuse Regulation.

Company Name Disclosure reference (see Key below)

Seneca Global Income & Growth Fund (SIGT LN) A,H & J

Aberdeen Diversified Income (ADIG LN) H

Capital Gearing Trust (CGT LN) None

Establishment Investment Trust (ET/ LN) None

F&C Managed Portfolio Growth (FMFG LN) None

F&C Managed Portfolio Inc (FMPI LN) None

Hansa Trust (HAN LN) H

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN) None

Henderson Alternative Strate (HAST LN) H

Invesco Perp Select Trust (IVPB LN) None

JZ Capital Partners (JZCP LN) H

Miton Global Opportunities (MIGO LN) H

New Star Investment Trust (NSI LN) None

Personal Assets Trust Plc (PNL LN) H

RIT Capital Partners Plc (RCP LN) H

Ruffer Investment Company (RICA LN) H

Tetragon Financial Group (TFG LN) H

UIL Ltd (UTL LN) None

Where a recommendation has changed during last 12 months

Company Name Previous recommendation Date of change of recommendation

NA NA NA

Key

A This research report has been sent to the issuer and it has been amended. B Recommendation differs from previous recommendation made during preceding 12 months in relation to the same financial instrument. C The author(s) of this publication has a net long position of more than 0.5% in the issued share capital of the named company. D The author of this publication has a net short position of 0.5% or more in the issued share capital of the named company. E Cantor Fitzgerald Europe owns a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the named company. F Cantor Fitzgerald Europe owns a net short position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the named company. G The named company holds in excess of 5% of the total issued share capital of Cantor Fitzgerald Europe. H Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, is a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of the named I Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, has been a lead manager or co-lead manager over the previous 12 months in a publicly disclosed offer of financial

instruments of the named company J Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, is party to an agreement with the named company relating to the provision of services of investment firms, and this

agreement has been in effect over the past 12 months or has given rise during the same period to the obligation to pay or receive compensation K Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, or one of its affiliates, is party to an agreement with the named company relating to the production of this recommendation. Other disclosable conflicts of interest

Company Name Nature of conflict

NA NA

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