SEMI Equipment and Materials Outlook Equipment and Materials Outlook Dan Tracy Sr. Director,...
Transcript of SEMI Equipment and Materials Outlook Equipment and Materials Outlook Dan Tracy Sr. Director,...
SEMI Equipment and Materials Outlook
Dan Tracy
Sr. Director, Industry Research & Statistics
SEMI
8 September 2016
Outline
Industry Stats Update
SEMI Equipment Outlook
Fab Materials Market
Packaging Materials Market
Summary
Year-to-Date “Snapshot”-
Y-o-Y trends are moving into positive territory
-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%
IC Units (July)
Equipment Billings (July)
Equipment Bookings (July)
Leadframe Units (July)
Silicon Wafer Shipments (July)
Litho Chemicals (June)
Process Gases (June)
MFC Units (June)
MFC Billings (June)
% Y-o-Y Change
Year-over-Year Growth Comparison
Source: SEMI and SIA/WSTS
Fab Equipment Spending Outlook: Maintained positive outlook for 2016
Forecast Date
2016 Growth
Estimate
2017 Growth
Estimate
Aug 2015 ~7% n/a
Nov 2015 ~3% n/a
Feb 2016 ~4% ~13%
May 2016 ~2% ~13%
Aug 2016
(current)
~4% ~11%
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
Some Key Fab Projects
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
NAND Foundry China SEA
US
$ B
illio
ns
Fab Investments (including construction and equipping)
2015 2016F 2017F
NAND
• Micron Fab 10X in Singapore
• Flash Alliance Fab 2
• Intel Fab 68 in China
• Samsung NAND fab in Xian and Line 18
• SK Hynix M14
• XMC’s new 3D NAND fab in China
Foundry
• GLOBALFOUNDRIES Fab 8 phase 2
• Samsung S2 and S3
• SMIC Beijing B2 and B3.
• TSMC Fab 12, Fab 14 and Fab 15
• UMC Fab 12A P5 and Xiamen fab.
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, August 2016
SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio-
Highest 3-mma Bookings Since 2010
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Ja
n-1
4
Feb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Feb-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
n-1
6 (
f)
Ju
l-1
6 (
p)U
S$
Mill
ion
s
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages)
Bookings Billings
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Ja
n-1
4
Feb-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Sep-1
4
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Apr-
15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jun-1
6 (
f)
Ju
l-1
6 (
p)
Book-t
o-B
ill R
atio
Source: SEMI August 2016
Total Semiconductor Equipment Spending-
Recent Order Activity has Improved
Source: SEMI/SEAJ
2016 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings
(U.S. Dollars in Millions)
Region 2016 Year-to-
Date (July)
2015 Year-to-
Date (July)
Y/Y %
Change
Europe $849 $1,323 -35.6%
Japan $2,649 $3,115 -15.0%
North America $2,499 $3,472 -28.0%
Korea $3,771 $5,416 -30.4%
Taiwan $5,542 $5,332 3.9%
China $4,438 $2,642 68.0%
SEA/ROW $2,248 $1,139 97.3%
Total $21,996 $22,439 -2.0%
Bookings (US$ M)
Y/Y %
88.9%
-38.8%
-30.5%
-16.5%
43.5%
33.4%
90.4%
8.9%
Year-over-Year Bookings Comparison-
Etch/Clean, CVD, Insp/Mtrlgy Up; Litho down
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000
Lithography
Etch/Clean
CVD
Other Dep.
Insp./Metrology
Test
A&P
US$ Millions
YTD Bookings (through July)
2015 2016
Source: SEMI/SEAJ
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
China 3.38 4.37 4.90 7.22 7.05
Europe 1.92 2.38 1.95 1.74 2.64
Japan 3.38 4.18 5.49 4.60 5.14
Korea 5.22 6.84 7.46 6.30 8.29
North America 5.27 8.16 5.12 4.74 5.07
SEA/ROW 2.08 2.15 1.97 3.33 3.35
Taiwan 10.57 9.41 9.63 9.94 9.98
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
US
$ B
illio
ns
Taiwan SEA/ROW North America Korea Japan Europe China
$31.82
$36.52 $37.87
$41.52
$37.50
SEMI® 2016 Equipment Forecast-
By Market Region
Source: SEMI September 1st Update Totals may not add due to rounding
SEMI® 2016 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast-
By Equipment Segment
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Other 1.42 1.63 1.90 1.86 2.04
Test 2.72 3.55 3.33 3.53 3.64
Assembly & Pack. 2.32 3.06 2.51 2.51 2.60
Wafer Process 25.36 29.26 28.78 29.97 33.24
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
US
$ B
illio
ns
Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other
$31.82
$37.87 $36.52
$41.52
$37.50
Source: SEMI September 1st Update
Totals may not add due to rounding
Silicon Shipment Index-
Steady Growth in 200mm over Previous 3-Years
Source: SEMI
% Annual
Growth
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD July
200mm -1.8% 1.6% 5.3% 3.0% -2.6%
300mm 5.5% -0.7% 16.3% 7.1% 1.2%
Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
F
20
17
F
Mill
ion
s o
f S
qu
are
In
ch
es
Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2015; Forecast SEMI March 2016
Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI.
300 mm
200 mm
150 mm
Advanced Lithography Materials-
Revenue Recovery*
$USM 2014 2015 2016F
193 resists $622 $584 ~$630
ARC $512 $422 ~$430
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription August 2016
* Avg. Yen/$: ~120 in 2015 and ~110 1H 2016
Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast
Actual Forecast
2014 US$ M
2015 US$ M
2016 US$ M
2017 US$ M
Silicon Wafers1 $7,990 $7,580 $7,560 $7,648
Photomasks2 3,220 3,267 3,343 3,438
Photoresist 1,374 1,326 1,406 1,422
Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,711 1,796 1,871 1,884
Wet Chemicals4 1,422 1,416 1,446 1,484
Gases 3,481 3,497 3,551 3,578
Sputter Targets 629 628 639 671
CMP Slurry & Pads5 1,569 1,588 1,651 1,734
Other/New Materials 2,855 3,022 3,179 3,280
Total $24,250 $24,121 $24,646 $25,129
% Growth -0.5% 2.2% 2.0%
Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI August 2016
Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes
1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes
SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers
2. Includes captive market
3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective
coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers,
adhesion promoters, etc.
4. Source is Linx Consulting LLC, includes precious metals
5. Estimates for IC applications only
6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric
precursors, organometallic precursors, etc.
7. All forecasts in current dollars
8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated
Source: SEMI August 2016
Regional Fab Materials Markets-
~2% Growth in 2016
China 8%
Europe 10%
Japan 18%
Korea 19%
North America
18%
SEA/ROW 5%
Taiwan 22%
2015 = $24.1 billion
Region 2016F
$US B
2017F
$US B
%
Change
China $2.11 $2.24 6.3%
Europe 2.46 2.47 0.5%
Japan 4.41 4.42 0.3%
Korea 4.65 4.78 2.8%
North America 4.34 4.33 -0.2%
SEA/ROW 1.25 1.31 5.2%
Taiwan 5.43 5.58 2.8%
Total $24.6 $25.1 2.0%
Source: SEMI August 2016
Totals may not add due to rounding
Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast
Actual Forecast
2014 US$ M
2015 US$ M
2016 US$ M
2017 US$ M
Leadframes $3,206 $2,991 $3,017 $3,048
Organic Substrates1 7,694 7,779 7,841 7,658
Ceramic Packages 2,075 2,082 2,122 2,153
Encapsulation Resins 2,555 2,583 2,758 2,910
Bonding Wire2 3,364 2,924 2,771 2,775
Die Attach Materials3 664 679 700 720
Others 232 258 292 323
Total $19,790 $19,296 $19,501 $19,587
% Growth -2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: SEMI August 2016
Source: Amkor
Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast Notes
1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA,
PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminates
2. Assume gold value of $1,260/trz for 2014, $1,188/trz for
2015, $1,200/trz for 2016, $1,300/trz for 2017
3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials
4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package
dielectrics
5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated
6. All forecasts in current dollars
Source: SEMI August 2016
Regional Packaging Materials Markets
Region 2016F
$US B
2017F
$US B
%
Change
China $4.42 $4.60 4.2%
Europe 0.63 0.64 0.5%
Japan 2.38 2.34 -1.5%
Korea 2.48 2.48 -0.2%
North America 0.60 0.59 -1.5%
SEA/ROW 4.79 4.75 -0.8%
Taiwan 4.21 4.19 -0.4%
Total Regions $19.5 $19.6 0.4%
Source: SEMI August 2016
Totals may not add due to rounding
China 22%
Europe 3%
Japan 12%
Korea 13%
North America
3%
SEA/ROW
25%
Taiwan 22%
2015 = $19.3 billion
Packaging Material Market Trends
• CSP laminate substrates, CSP leadframes, and WLP are driven by mobile computing and communications
• Flip chip and copper pillar continue to expand the market for underfill materials. • Need more development for WLP dielectrics used in multi-layer structures
• Mold compounds- warpage control/package reliability (MSL1); withstand high flexing for wearable applications • QFN- cost optimization through design (including strip size) and reduced plating area (also improves MSL); higher lead counts (routable); improved power dissipation
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International- Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Laminate Substrates
• ~$7.8B market
• Stable supply base
• Good demand/supply balance in recent years
• Flip chip substrate suppliers
– Bump pitch trends drive finer features and higher substrate prices
– Previously, focused on MPU and graphics applications
– Now, the focus is on mobile applications- growth market but more cost sensitive and shorter development cycles
– Laminate CSP could be impacted by growth in FO-WLP
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International- Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Silicon versus Organic Substrates Revenues
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Reven
ue
s
(US
$ M
illio
ns)
Silicon Organic Substrates
Source: Techsearch & SEMI, August 2016 Silicon revenues do not include SOI or reclaimed silicon
Summary
Equipment
• Strong order activity so far this year
• Forecasting ~3% growth in 2016 and 10% to 11% in 2017
• 3D NAND and China investments key to spending
Materials
• Low-single digit unit growth
• $44.1 billion market in 2016; growing to $44.7 billion in
2017
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