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Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
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Transcript of Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
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SEEING BEYOND CARBON: OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL COMPARATIVE
RESEARCH IN DRY FORESTS
First Conference on NWFP for Sustained Livelihood in Bhopal, India, 17–19 December 2011.
Dr A.B (Tony) Cunningham, Principal ScienVst, Forests & Livelihoods
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• Background;
• Context & dry forests;
• Research themes “beyond carbon”
• Conclusions.
OVERVIEW
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WET TROPICAL FORESTS ARE THE “POSTER CHILD”……
….& tropical dry forests a somewhat neglected orphan….
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• Reduced carbon storage above & below ground (total 1Pg C/yr – if half of miombo cleared in 30 yrs – 0.2 Pg C/yr) (Scholes, 1996);
• Biodiversity loss.
IMPACTS OF DRY FOREST LOSS
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• In many African dry forests, we know liLle about what’s ”in the bank” ‐ parQcularly the underground vaults (ie: below ground biomass) – or interest rates (producQvity);
• Basic management plans oSen outdated;
• Opportunity to learn from “carbon accounQng” & management in South Asian dry forests (e.g: Gunimedia et al., 2007)
LEARNING FROM INDIA: CARBON
Ref: Gundimeda, H., P. Sukhdev, R. K. Sinha and S. Sanyal. 2007. Natural resource accounQng for Indian states — IllustraQng the case of forest resources. Ecological Economics 61: 635‐649
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BACKTO THE FUTURE….
MulVple‐use management in a globalized world…
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Many ecological & taxonomic similariVes: for example, Boswellia & Commiphora in India and Africa
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WHAT ARE DRY FORESTS?
• Africa is widely considered to have the largest area of tropical dry forest (Murphy & Lugo, 1986);
• Important forest type in South Asia (eg: sal forests);
• but different interpretaQon over what “dry forests” are can lead to very different conclusions;
• Miles et al (2006) concluded that “more than half of the forest area (54.2%) is located within South America” (by leaving out miombo woodland).
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9 Scholes, RJ and BH Walker (1993) An African Savanna: Synthesis of the Nylsvley Study. Cambridge University Press.
SHOULD DRY FOREST DEFINITIONS BE POLITICALLY OR ECOLOGICALLY DRIVEN?
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Research themes beyond carbon..
• 1. Understanding impacts spatially & over time;
• 2. Landscape level conservation & incentives;
• 3. Livelihoods, resilience & vulnerabilities;
• 4. Citizen science: monitoring & implementation;
• 5. Understanding “hidden economies”;
• 6. Looking after the bank: governance & dry forests;
• 7. Values, value-adding & market integration;
• 8. The need for an integrated approach to sustainable resource use.
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1. UNDERSTANDING
IMPACTS SPATIALLY & OVER TIME
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WHAT FACTORS AFFECT DRY FORESTS & WOODLANDS?�
Elephant impacts (in some African protected areas)
Mean annual rainfall (influencing fire)�
Frost�
Unmanaged
logging�
Subtle, species specific impacts (eg: bark removal)�
Loss of large mammals due to hunVng
Grazing (caele, goats, wild animals)�
Commercial charcoal & fuelwood producVon�
Conversion to farmland�
LARGE SCALE IMPACTS
SPECIES SPECIFIC IMPACTS
PREDICTABLE EFFECTS ON PREDICTABLE PARTS OF THE LANDSCAPE & PARTICULAR SPECIES?
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Bolago, Ethiopia Nyssen, J et al. 2009. DeserQficaQon? Northern Ethiopia re‐photographed aSer 140 years. Science of the Total Environment 407:2749‐2755.
REPEAT PHOTOGRAPHY AS A TOOL TO GET “TIME‐DEPTH”
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REPEAT PHOTOS: POPULATIONS
• Cost effecVve;
• Slow, subtle changes visible;
• Finding historical photos & relocaVon can give Vme depth;
• Scale, measurements & “digital calipers”
1950
1995
2004
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c. 1970
2011
Great opportuniVes for parVcipatory methods in photo interpretaVon that link to local knowledge.
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c.1970
2011Detail of terraced !elds from photograph taken by B. Clamagirand, c. 1970 (CL-TIM 0283) showing Ficus tree on grassy hill
Same hill, with the Ficus tree, taken from a slightly di"erent angle due to trees & houses in the foreground.
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2. LANDSCAPE LEVEL CONSERVATION &
INCENTIVES
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Conventional Research Process: “disconnect” between research solution
& outcome
Basic Strategic Adaptive
Outcome Research solution
….a key challenge in conservaVon of species & at the landscape level.
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KNOWING BUT NOT DOING….
Ref: Linklater, W. L. 2003. Science and management in a conservaQon crisis:a case study with rhinoceros. ConservaQon Biology 17:968–975
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SystemaVc ConservaVon Planning
ConservaVon assessment:
IdenQfying species & spaQal prioriQes for conservaQon acQon
ImplemenVng effecVve conservaVon
Development of an
implementaVon strategy and acVon
plan
The “planning‐acVon” gap
Needs stakeholder support: Controls, incenVves & development strategies
“Assessment‐ planning gap”
Knight, A.T et al. 2006. An OperaQonal Model for ImplemenQng ConservaQon AcQon. ConservaQon Biology 20: 408–419
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Site selecVon is the easy part…
Persistence over a century or more is harder to achieve.
Need to think laterally about threats to evoluVonary, ecological & cultural processes affecVng landscapes, species & geneVc diversity – current and future…..& the role for ethnoecology & natural product enterprises.
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CREATIVE STRATEGIES
Ref: Wunder, S. 2006. Are direct payments for environmental services spelling doom for sustainable forest management in the tropics? Ecology and Society 11(2): 23. [online] URL: h<p://www.ecologyandsociety.org/ vol11/iss2/art23/
DIRECTNESS
USE OF ECONOMIC
INCE
NTIVES
Economic incenQves
vital
No economic incenQves
Integrated conservaQon
Direct conservaQon
Pro‐conservaQon subsidies, taxes & off‐
sets Land
acquisiQon & private
conservaQon areas
ICDPs SFM & producQon
“Fences & fines”
PES
CERTIFICATION & BRANDING
CBFM & JFM
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WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PAST MANAGEMENT “EXPERIMENTS”?
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3. LIVELIHOODS,
VULNERABILITIES & RESILIENCE
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VULNERABILITY & LIVELIHOODS • Vulnerability = “the state of suscepQbility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental .... change and from the absence of capacity to adapt” (Adger 2006)
• Resources available to cope and adapt to shocks and stresses
• Level of reliance on ecosystem services for livelihoods
• Grazing, resource harvesQng, culQvaQon • For provisioning, savings, income ,and safety‐net
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MRA (mixed, rain‐fed, livestock & crop) & LGA (livestock only) systems projected to undergo >20% reducVon in length of growing period by 2050 ‐
Ref: Boko, M., I Niang, A Nyong and C Vogel. 2007. Chapter 9: Africa, IPCC WGII AR4.
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LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES: BUSHBUCKRIDGE, SOUTH AFRICA
Variable %
Own caLle 11.3
Earn income from caLle 26.6 (3.0)
Own goats 10.8
Earn income from goats 29.5 (3.1)
Planted crops 96.7
Sold crops 4.0
Use edible wild herbs 96.5
Use firewood 92.5
Use edible wild fruit 53.9
Use edible insects 51.9
Sold natural products 10.8
Ref: Twine & Hunter, in press)
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4. CITIZEN SCIENCE: MONITORING &
IMPLEMENTATION
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30
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE IN THE “DRY RUN” FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
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ETHNOECOLOGY & LOCAL WORLDVIEWS
WORLDVIEW Social institutions & tenure
Landscapes & resource management systems
Folk Taxonomy
(species, genotypes,
chemotypes)
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MONITORING: CAN WE BE MORE EFFECTIVE?
• scientist-executed monitoring:
– little impact at the village scale, where many natural resource management decisions are made;
– informed larger decisions (regions, nations & international conventions)…but took 3–9 years to be implemented;
• participatory monitoring: faster to implement, but smaller scale.
Danielsen, F et al. 2010. Environmental monitoring: the scale and speed of implementation varies according to the degree of peoples involvement. J Applied Ecology
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HOW RELIABLE IS THE DATA?
When entered into a computer database in Windhoek, it gets its own reality…or may not yield anything useful at all.
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GETTING SMART: TECHNOLOGY
FOR MONITORING & MANAGEMENT
• How can tracking technology be used for better impacts? (research, “citizen science” & policy in practice)?
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5. UNDERSTANDING
“HIDDEN ECONOMIES” & “DISTANT DRIVERS”
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DAYLIGHT ROBBERY?
• Global scale: illegal logging costs governments US$10 billion per year in lost revenue (World Bank 2002);
• What is the extent of lost revenue in dry forests?
• Why does crime pay? Benefits from illegal acQviQes oSen exceed costs to local people.
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• by 2030, 70% of urban dwellers will be in Africa or Asia;
• world wealth & political power concentrated in cities;
• simultaneously, centers of poverty for hundreds of millions.
URBANIZATION & FORESTS
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PRODUCTS & PREDICTABLE PLACES
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WHERE ARE THE INCENTIVES FOR VILLAGE LEVEL MGMT?
• incentives are often low;
• woodland tenure is weak;
• but are JFM or PFM workable if incentives increase?
World Bank, 2010
Kambewa et al, 2007
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6. LOOKING AFTER
“THE BANK”: GOVERNANCE & DRY FORESTS
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WHO SHOULD LOOK AFTER THE BANK?
• In many African cases, weak capacity of relevant government insQtuQons to effecQvely monitor, manage and control many dry forests & woodlands;
• Under‐development, poverty & widespread corrupQon;
• Need to deal with contradicQons: adding high value = increased incenQves to “rob the bank”.
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POLICY vs. PRACTICE….
Officially sancQoned commercial logging of a “protected” IUCN “red‐list” species in Namibia
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CORRUPTION & MARKET CHAINS: TANZANIA
• “culture of corrupQon” difficult to deal with; • different scales of corrupQon, from peLy corrupQon to poliQcal elites; • Overlapping forms (bribes, kick‐backs, fraud, favouraQsm and patronage)
Timber trade “bribery index” – a guide to beLer governance strategies?
Milledge, S. et al. 2007 Forestry, governance and naVonal development: lessons learned from a logging boom in southern Tanzania. TRAFFIC, Tanzania.
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BUT FOR LOCAL PEOPLE, ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING
• A low cost school build in exchange for illegal logging: Mozambique
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LEARNING FROM TANZANIA’S “RESOURCE MINING”
• Dry forests low market share of Chinese log imports, but significant impact
• Tanzania: ‐Up to 96% lost royalQes ‐Loss of $58M annually
‐1400% increase in value (’97‐’05)
‐ExporQng new species
‐Concealed transacQons
(Milledge 2007)
Mismatch in Qmber export & import figures (TZ)
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR
OVERLAYING DATA SETS
• supply chains, volumes & governance Asner et al. 2010.High-resolution forest carbon stocks and emissions in the Amazon. PNAS. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1004875107
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7. VALUES & VALUE-
ADDING
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• Dry forests in eastern India (Orissa) net present value of revenues from NTFP were US$1016 /ha (coastal DF) & US$ 1348/ha (inland DF);
• PotenQal Qmber revenue was US$ 268 /ha) & much higher than the returns from alternaQve land uses.
• Need to develop beLer valuaQon protocols that include Qmber & non‐Qmber products instead of conversion to other land‐uses.
VALUES, VARIATION, LIVELIHOODS & LAND-USE
Mahapatra, A K & Tewari. 2005. Importance of non‐Vmber forest products in the economic valuaVon of dry deciduous forests of India. Forest Policy and Economics 7: 455– 467
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LINK TO CARING & CREATIVE MARKETS
• CerQficaQon; • Value‐adding & “the future of music”;
• Traceability & “rules with teeth”.
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QUALITY, TRACEABILITY & LIVELIHOODS
• Bar & QR codes are everywhere & on everything in our urban lives….so is RF technology - but underused in linking rural enterprises & “green consumerism”;
• Powerful data collection tool (business & research)
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LIVELIHOODS & PRIVATE ENTERPRISE: risks & returns of “formalizing the
informal sector”
• long history of trade, but research on successful impacts for “scaling out & up” is an emerging opportunity
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ENTERPRISE LESSONS & THE TIME CRUNCH: “green business & the “adopVon curve”
NUMBE
R OF ADOPT
ERS
Time to adoptable results
Year of peak adopVon
TIME
Peak adopQon
Often problems in scaling up or
scaling out.
• Wrong products/partners; • Site specificity stops scaling out • Donor Qme vs. real Qme scales • Costs exceed benefits • Mismatch: producers vs. buyers • Poor supply chain mgmt • Equipment for demonstraQon vs. commercial scale • boLlenecks & barriers to trade
0 10 years
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8. THE NEED FOR AN
INTEGRATED APPROACH TO SUSTAINABLE
RESOURCE USE
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CRUCIAL TO HAVE AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE
PLANT USE BY PEOPLE
ANIMAL IMPACTS ON
TREES
FIRE
TIMBER EXTRACTION
GRAZERS
Focal areas & species
Social & cultural context
POLITICAL & POLICY CONTEXT
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FIRE: THE “MEGA‐HERBIVORE”
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center ScienQfic VisualizaQon Studio
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SINGLE PRODUCT, SUBTLE CHALLENGES
• Hive “doors” from Parinari in synergy with fire locally threaten a mulQ‐use species.
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CONCLUSIONS
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MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL COMPARATIVE RESEARCH
• Added value from comparisons & contrasts;
• …but a need for common methods.
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WHY? • Survey methods influence our understanding but it maLers: – how & where we collect data; – how widely we read in research papers – how we analyze and interpret data
• One soluQon is a “nested” method, hierarchical, cross‐disciplinary approach – but this adds cost & requires high levels of coordinaQon & cooperaQon among scienQsts;
• 3 examples.
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EXAMPLE 1: FOREST INVENTORIES & COMPARISONS
• Mean annual changes in basal area (13 forests, different management & ownership regimes) in Tanzania (Blomley, 2008)…but what about species?
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THINKING beyond the canopy
EXAMPLE 2: THE POVERTY & ENVIRONMENT NETWORK
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Methods from economic geography, social sciences, ecology & applied ethnobotany
EXAMPLE 3: ENCOURAGING QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN APPLIED ETHNOBOTANY
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BIOMASS & IMPACTS: LOCAL vs. TRAINED SCIENTISTS
• Danielsen et al. 2011. At the heart of REDD?: a role for local people in monitoring forests? Conserv LeL 4:158–167
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THANK YOU