SEED SYSTEM SECURITY ASSESSMENT (SSSA)ESTUDU SISTEMA SEGURANSA FINI (ESSF)

TIMOR-LESTE

October 2013

Contribute to vision of Sustainable Seed System Development

Sharpen strategies for :

Emergency aid

Chronic stress (most vulnerable)

Developmental/commercial opportunities

Genebanks

Cultivation

Harvesting

SEED

Storage

Consumption

BreedersSeed

production

Planting

Other local Markets

Channels through which Farmers Source Seed

Govt Comm Relief

Own Exch Markets

Repeated Seed Aid Delivery in Many CountriesSite Extent of Seed Aid

Burundi 28 seasons: since 1995

Eastern Kenya 92-93; 95-97; 2000-2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011

Zimbabwe Near continuous since 1991 (food aid, seed aid or both)

Malawi 15 seasons or more, since 1992

Timor Leste Since 2000 ? (+ ongoing)

Ethiopia Since 1974 : 34 years

Seed Security : matching responses to specific problems

Seed Security Framework

Parameter Seed security

Availability Sufficient quantity of seed of appropriate crops available within reasonable proximity, and in time for planting

Access People have adequate income or other resources to purchase or barter for seed

Quality Seed is of acceptable quality • ‘healthy’ (physiological, analytical, +sanitary quality• adapted and farmer-acceptable varieties

Remington/CRS, 1998, 2002

Parameter Acute ….Chronic

Unavailability of seed

Direct distribution of seed

-(rarely happens)

(except for new varieties)+ seed production capacity

Farmers do not have access to seed

Vouchers and cash

(w/seed fairs)

Income generation activity;

Agro-enterprise development- value chains

Seed System Problems– and appropriate responses

Sperling et al 2008

Parameter Acute …Chronic/Dev

Seed of poor quality

Seed fairs with quality controls

Direct distribution of test samples of quality seed

Programs to improve seed quality

•Seed companies•on-farm•in local markets

Lack of appropriate varieties/crops

Limited introductions new varieties

Introduce existing new varieties

Participatory variety selection/breeding

Seed System Problems– and appropriate responses

Problem X

Strategic Goal Setting• Focus short-term (stop gap)- or link relief to development?

• Support formal or informal systems- both- and why?

• Crops for the commercial sector ONLY – and why?

• Single crop focus or real basket of crops?

• Crops to deal with problems of flood/drought-prone areas/resilience?

• Crops/varieties to address nutritional issues?

• Crops for most vulnerable (e.g. women) ?

• Seed issues only-- other inputs? Insurance vouchers? Agro-enterprise?

SSSA in Timor Leste October 2013

SITES

Aileu (Fahiria)

Baucau (Baguia)

Ainaro (Cassa)

ALIEU- Fahiria

BAUCAU—BAGUIA

Ainaro- Cassa

In all sites: horticultural crops are increasingly important

Guide: Seed System Security Assessment

7-step guide

Chronic + acute stress

Development opportunities

seedsystem.org

Timor Leste: 2013 Assessment Methods

Type of Investigation Commentary Background information analysis

Commissioning of specific documents (MAF/SoL): formal sector breeding + sector seed supply trends Decentralized seed production inventories

Key informant interviews MAF /project personnel Seed Producer Groups

Focus group discussions --- Community-based --- Women’s groups

Separate community + women- only focus groups

agricultural and variety use and trends seed source strategies, by crop community seed security assessment women’s crop/seed constraints/opportunities

Farmer interviews (N=191) Agricultural trends – acute/chronic seed source patterns/input use

Seed/grain market analysis (N=62 traders+ veg sellers)

crops and varieties supplies on market pricing patterns/ sourcing areas seed quality management procedures

Agro-dealer shops /kiosks (N=4)

Dili, Baucau , Ainaro, Cassa

Household sample (N=191)

Gender of HH Head

HH Head N %Male 172 90.1%Female 19 9.9%total 191 100.0%

Area cultivated by household

Area cultivated N %< 0.5 ha 40 21.1%0.5 - 1.0 ha 92 48.4%>1.0-2.0 ha 45 23.7%> 2.0 ha 13 6.8%total 190 100.0%

HH size (resident)

Mean size Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum

6.9 2.7 1 15

SELECT FINDINGS

Acute stress- 2012-2014 Chronic stresses + developmental opportunities

72% Own stocks 12% markets 8% govt/NGO 7% friends

Seed sources – Last Season (2012-13)

%

Maize Common beans

Irish Potato Peanut Rice Cassava0

20

40

60

80

100

Home saved / Own stock

Local market

Friends & relatives

Govt/NGO

Peanut Common beans

Long Beans Mung beans Black beans0

10

20

30

40

50

60%

see

d fr

om m

arke

tMarket seed, Legumes– Last Season (2012 -13)

Quantity of seed sown, recent season 2012-2013: more/ same/ less than normal

Alieu : + 0.3 %

Baucau: - 1.4 %

Ainaro: + 0.2 %

Crop N % of HHs

Change in sowing amounts (%)

MORE SAME LESS

Maize 65 24.6 64.6 10.8 8.32Cassava 56 10.7 76.8 12.5 0.76Rice 48 4.2 70.8 25.0 -12.23Sweet potato 13 7.7 69.2 23.1 1.90

Crop N % of HHs

Change in sowing amounts (%)

MORE SAME LESS

Maize 54 13.0 59.3 27.8 -5.07Common beans 50 16.0 52.0 32.0 8.87Cassava 33 6.1 63.6 30.3 -4.05Sweet potato 14 0.0 78.6 21.4 -9.52Taro 14 7.1 85.7 7.1 4.46Irish Potato 5 20.0 40.0 40.0 -28.33

in most recent season (ALL SITES)

Reasons N% of

responses

SEED- RELATED (or indirectly linked to seeds)Seed availabilityNo seed available in market 1 1.0%No seed/cuttings available from neighbors 3 3.0%Seed accessNo money to buy seed/poor finances or seed too high 12 12.1%Seed qualitySeed available is not good quality or the variety is not liked 2 2.0%

Sub-total: seed-related 18 18.2%

NON-SEED FACTORS OF PRODUCTION (limits)No/insuffi cient labor 35 35.4%Illness/health problems 0 0.0%No/insuffi cient land or land not appropriate/suffi ciently fertile 8 8.1%Lack of tools/tractor/ other machinery to farm 0 0.0%Plant pests/diseases make production not possible 2 2.0%Animals/predator make production not possible 3 3.0%Lack of other inputs: controlled water supply/irrigation or fertilizer 0 0.0%Poor weather/rainfall 15 15.2%Insecurity (e.g. theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total: Factors of Production 63 63.6%

OTHER PRIORITIES/STRATEGIESMarkets for crop or crop products not well-developed 0 0.0%Other priorities than agriculture (e.g. have shop) 0 0.0%Changing Crop priorities or changing agricultural practices 1 1.0%New Farming methods allow lower seeding rate 16 16.2%Other 0 0.0%

TOTAL 99 99.0%

Reasons farmers gave for planting LESS than normal

Reasons farmers gave for planting MORE than normal in most recent season (ALL SITES)

Reasons N % of responses

SEED- RELATED (or indirectly linked to seeds)Seed availabilityMore seed available due to good harvest 6 10.2%More seed available due to free seed 14 23.7%Seed accessMore money to buy seed or seed price low 0 0.0%Got credit to buy seed 0 0.0%Seed qualityHave especially good seed or good variety 4 6.8%

Sub-total: seed-related 24 40.7%

NON-SEED FACTORS OF PRODUCTION (opportunities)Good/increased labor 4 6.8%Feeling strong/healthy 1 1.7%Have more land/more fertile land 10 16.9%Have tools/tractor, other machinery to help farm 3 5.1%Have access to irrigation, fertilizer or other inputs (for example, stakes) 0 0.0%Good weather/rainfall 2 3.4%Good security (peace has arrived; less theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total: Factors of Production 20 33.9%

OTHER PRIORITIES/STRATEGIESWell-developed /new markets for crop or crop products 1 1.7%Have decided to give more priority to agriculture 7 11.9%Changed crop profiles or priority to certain crops 1 1.7%Re-sowing due to stress (e.g. poor soils, germination, rain) 3 5.1%Other 1 1.7%

TOTAL 59 96.6%

Sources of seed for main season 2013-14and quantities to be sown

Sources 2013-14: same trends as 2012-13

Quantities 2013-14:

Alieu : + 6.1 % (+ maize, cassava)

Baucau : - 6.7 (- maize, potatoes)

Ainaro + 11.2 (RICE! Tractors)

Hence, a stable situation-

Can seed markets deliver: 2013-2014?

1. Is there acceptable supply ?

Agro dealers Local markets

2. Can farmers afford needed purchases:(What are the cash needs?)

Agro-dealers-is there acceptable supply ?Small amounts– and ONLY for horticultural crops

Seeds EVERYWHERE!

Local markets : is there acceptable supply?

Seed Flows : is the supply acceptable ?

Beans

Maize (corn)

Can Farmers meet cash needs for seed purchase ?

Average Expenses per farmer, last Season 2013

Ainaro

Next season:$11.09

Baucau

Next season:$19.23

key crops

N growing this crop

Spending ($)Local

marketNeighbors Ag-input

shopsall

purchases% of total

Maize 58 2.55 0.42 0.00 2.97 32.5%

Rice 36 1.92 0.73 0.00 2.65 29.0%

Peanuts 11 3.24 0.28 0.00 3.52 38.5%

Total $ 7.71 $ 1.44 $ 0.00 $ 9.15 100.0%

key crops

N growing this crop

Spending ($)Local

marketNeighbors Ag-input

shopsall

purchases% of total

Maize 54 1.47 0.74 0.00 2.21 12.2%

Beans 50 11.00 4.90 0.00 15.90 87.8%

Total $ 12.47 $ 5.64 $ 0.00 $ 18.11 100.0%

Community assessment of seed security: 2013-14% SEED SECURE

CROP ALIEU AINARO

Maize 100 100

Rice 100 100

Cassava 100

Vegetables 100

Mungbean 100

Pigeonpea 100

Select Summary : 2012-2014 Generally, 2012-13 normal season (viz. maize, s- potato in select sites)

Seed use has been generally stable : recent season: c. 0% change upcoming -6 to +11 %

Why some planting less: labor, weather, money constraints in no site was lack of seed a key issue

Agro-dealer supply at very small scale (horticultural crops) Informal horticultural supply booming!

Local market supply: okay in terms of quality and volume- in and between regions

Seed expenses- $ 9-18 (affordable?)

STABLE SEED SECURITY SITUATION IN THE SHORT-TERM

Broader trends

Chronic stresses Developmental opportunities

Alieu: Diversity of crops -- but little transformation!

Crop Importance for food

Importance for income

Transformation?

Maize +++ ++ meal, animal feed

Rice +++ ++ meal, animal feed

Cassava +++ ++ Bread, sweets, chips

Arrowroot +++ ---- animal feed

Taro +++ ---- bread

Sweet potato ++ ++ chips

Banana + +++ Bread, chips

Tomato + +++ -----

Mustard greens + +++ -----

Cabbage + +++ -----

Green beans + +++ -----

Peanut + ++

Seed sources – Peanut (Aileu)

2013

2008

Peanut(1)Market

(1)Stocks

NGO

MAF

Peanut(2)Market

(1)Stocks Neighbors

Seed sources – Vegetables (Aileu)

2013

2008

Vegetables(1)NGO

(2)Stocks

Input shop Dili

(3)Market

MAF

Church

(1)Stocks

Vegetables (2)MAF

(3)Market

Access to new varieties: last 5 years

43 % obtained a new variety

CropN

%

Maize 67 59.8%Rice 28 25.0%Sweet potato 4 3.6%Common beans 2 1.8%Cassava 2 1.8%Peanut 2 1.8%Cabbage 2 1.8%Green Veg 2 1.8%Irish Potato 1 0.9%Long Beans 1 0.9%Taro 0 0.0%Mustard 0 0.0%Soya Beans 0 0.0%Arrowroot 0 0.0%Mung beans 0 0.0%Carrots 0 0.0%TOTAL-all crops 111 100.0%

Source

Friends, rela-tives

Local market

Govt

NGO / FAO

Special initiatives for Vegetatively-progagated crops (esp. Sweet potato + cassava)

Sweet potato

SoL– underway in 2013-14

Each district (as a source center)

Sub-district- satellite center

Also- linking Loja Agrikultura to producer nurseries

Cassava??

constraints reported are more:

Labor

Land

-- and no access to new varieties

Seed Producers- : which models?

Only SoL (very important!)

Tied contracts/ sharing …….not yet marketing

Scale? Speed? breadth of diffusion?

Value addition? Agro-enterprise?

Almost none !

Milling of maize

Use of inputs (non-seed)

Storage losses : 20-45 %Maize 35%

Beans 37% Rice 27%

Mineral fertilizer?

YesNo

Storage chemicals?

YesNo

Compost/Manure?

Ainaro

Aileu

Seed Storage options Seed storage bin use increasing (e.g. 1300 sold in Ainaro alone,

40% unsubsidized!)

Farmers need more information on:

selection in fielddrying…..

Summary : chronic seed stress/ developmental opportunities Some seed system dynamism- MAF + vegetable seed (informal markets)

Some good variety use (43%) , solely through MAF/NGOs Diversity very limited (maize and rice)

Seed multiplication but not marketed to farmers. (??)

Very little (no) ‘added value’ (transformation) Little use of inputs– except for manure compost in Alieu (hort. Projects)

Heavy storage losses; 20 to 45%, but increasing use of storage bins

Special attention needed : cassava? (VPCs)

MAJOR STRESSES ARE CHRONIC: SOME ADVANCES (but not necessarily sustainable)

Gender differencesMale + Female-headed households

Question Differences?

# new varieties No

Seed aid No

Quantities sown No

Field sizes YES – Female-headed farms smaller

Family size YES – Female-headed families smaller

Chemical input use No

Compost/Manure use YES – Female-headed farms use less

Select Recommendations Short-term: ‘urgent’

NO EMERGENCY INTERVENTIONS NEEDED

Select Recommendations

Focus: Developmentalshort to medium-term

1. Add value to SEED PRODUCTION strategy

All programs should contain explicit marketing + delivery component

Programs oriented to smallholder farmers ( not only institutional clients: MAF, NGOs…)

Limit (no??) free seed !

Explicit modeling of production optionsCost efficiency, speed, coverage ( 20,000 small packs versus CSPGs)

2. Make new varieties accessible !

Multiple innovative outlets

Test small pack sale through:

• Lojas (agro-dealers)• General good shops (Mercy Corps)• Vendors at open markets• Faith-based groups

Small packs

3. Leverage key existing seed supply processes

Vegetable seed supply (informal market)

Seed flows among regions (stability of supply!)

refine understanding how each operates build on their strengths

4. Reduce Storage Losses

Expand seed storage bin supply

Increased emphasis on skill building:

• Selection in field• Drying methods

5. BIG PUSH: Information to farmers + feedback

Varieties (as example) awareness of varieties Their suitability for stress Where material can be accessed Conduits for sharing information with other farmers …..

Mechanisms : Use of Mass MediaRadioSchoolsLaFaek MagazineSISCASocial events in evenings

6. Widen vision A : SEED SECURITY FOR NUTRITION Put in place a series of innovative options at the community

level New and local varieties, especially legumes Access to range of horticultural crops Fruits/melons Small-scale livestock and fish Tofu/tempeh

Purchase- with cash or coupons

Fairs: Diversity and Nutrition fairs for Environmental Resilience (‘DiNER’)

7. Widen vision B : SEED SECURITY FOR RESILENCE • Widen portfolio of crops on offer (speed process up?)

• Screen local as well as improved varieties for ‘best bets’

• Develop/identify varieties tolerant to stress (flood, drought, wind, pests)

• Identify ongoing and diverse delivery channels

• (Focused) Information: suitability, sourcing, options to address constraint

• Choice: farmers need room to strategize in stress periods

8. NON- SEED Issues drive seed sector Agro-enterprise development

(still to develop: needs to be demand-driven)

Linking farmers to markets has to be done in ways which reduces risks farmers face and increase revenue (transparent pricing and payment mechanisms)

Developing of market information systems which are trustworthy for farmers.

Testing of diverse business/organization models

Team membersMAF/SoL Marcelino da Costa FAO Maria Filomena Garnadeiro

Rui A. Pereira Dorilanda d. c. Lopes Mercy Corps

Marcelino Pinto Goretti OliveiraCipriano Martins Albino Amaral Simao M. Belo Augusto PintoBuddhi Kunwar Joanna WalshBenedito Correia Ribeiro

CARE Tome GuterresCRS Joshua Kyller Diana d. c. Marques

Leovogildo Belarmino Maunel da Costa Jose M. D C. Ximenes Augusto Maubuti

Alipio Soares da Cruz Giacomo MencariLeonardo Soares BeluHenrique Ferreira de Araujo CIAT Louise SperlingLucio VerdialJose Maria A. Ornai UEA Shawn McGuire

WEBSITES

• http://seedsystem.org

• www.crsprogramquality.org

• http://www.apxc.org/#!scaling-seed