Security Environment

U.S.

Japan

China

South Asia

U.S. in Asia-Pacific

• Begins with the annexation of Hawaii and the Philippines in 1898

• Strategic importance of Asia-Pacific has been rising to the U.S.

• Pacific War (1941-1945)

• Korean War (1950-1953)

• Vietnam War (1959-1975)

U.S. National Interest

• U.S. national interest in Asia

• Regional peace & stability– presence of 100,000 military personnel

• Expansion of democracy

• Market economy

• Individual rights

• Counter-terrorism

Japan

• One of the most important components of U.S. security policy in Asia-Pacific region

• U.S.-Japan alliance survived 4 decades thanks to the Cold War

• United States-Japan Security Treaty of 1951– did not oblige U.S. to protect Japan– revised in 1960 to add ``prior consultation”

U.S.-Japan

• Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in 1978– maintain a credible U.S. defense commitment

to Japan– ``the framework `to fight’ the new Cold War”

• Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in 1997

Self-Defense Forces

Obstacles

• Obstacles to Japan’s use of military forces overseas:

• domestic political opposition

• Asian neighbor’s wartime memories

• economic recession

• aging population

China’s Reemergence

• Largest population

• Largest army

• Second largest economy

• Open to foreign trade– trade volume $3.9 trillion in 2012

• Foreign direct investment– Stock of inward FDI $1.3 trillion (No. 2)– Stock of outward FDI $0.5 trillion (No. 13)

Taiwan

• Relationship between Taipei and Beijing– 1950s through 1970s:

• continuation of the GMD-CCP civil war (1927 - )• Beijing: ``to liberate Taiwan”• Taipei: ``to gloriously retake the mainland”

– 1980s:• Beijing: attracting investments from Taiwan• Taipei: allowing investment on mainland

U.S. Strategic Ambiguity

• 3 Joint Communiqués between PRC and US in 1972, 1979, and 1982

• Taiwan Relations Act of 1979

• Strategic Ambiguity:– ambiguous commitment to Taiwan’s defense– ambiguous policy on arms sale to Taiwan– ambiguity on the definition of ``One China”

Dual Deterrence

• No provocation on either side

• Maintain stability and status quo

South China Sea

South China Sea

India-Pakistan Wars

• 1947-1949, Kashmir

• 1965, Kashmir

• 1971, East Pakistan (Bangladesh)