Security and Stability in Uganda

Security and Stability in Uganda

UNLocK Update Report 11 August-December 2010

UNLOCK | THE FUND FOR PEACE

Copyright © 2011 The Fund for Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace Publication CR-11-08-UL (11-03C)

data and perspectives from civil society networks in

conflict-affected zones into CAST, The Fund for Peace’s

conflict assessment early warning methodology. The

project, the Early Warning and State Building Initiative,

is made possible with funding from Carnegie

Corporation of New York, Humanity United, and

National Endowment for Democracy. The statements

made and views expressed are solely the responsibility

of The Fund for Peace.

T his report was compiled by Kendall Lawrence and Melody Knight, under

the supervision of Nate Haken, Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace.

It is the eleventh in a series that is part of a pilot project to integrate

Comparative Analysis 4 Election Security and Stability 5 Analysis by Select Indicators 7 Sub-regional Analysis 11 Looking Ahead 13 About The Fund for Peace 15

www.fundforpeace.org 3 UNLocK | Uganda

Contents

Comparative Periodic Analysis: Percentage of Reports by Indicator

32

24

16

8

0

March—July, 2010

August—December, 2010

Demographic Pressures

Refugees and ID

Ps

Group Grie

vance

Human Flight a

nd Brain Drain

Uneven Economic Development

Economic Pressures

State Legitim

acy

Public Services

Human Rights and Rule of Law

Security

Apparatus

Factio

nalized Elite

s

External In

terventio

n

Numbers represent a percentage of documents by period.


Comparative Analysis

by the beginning of the campaigns for the February

2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a

sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK

participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the

previous five months there were relatively few reports

relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly

incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were

reported frequently by participants from August to

December. There were fears expressed about the

potential for election violence, especially considering

the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt

could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However,

although there were a few reports of violence and

intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to

the election than many had anticipated, especially as

compared with previous Ugandan elections.

Apart from election issues, during this period there

were reports relating to public services, factionalized

elites, security issues, and external intervention with

pastoralist raids from across the Kenyan border.

Corruption and limited resources have continued to

undermine public service delivery, namely in

education, healthcare, and sanitation projects. Land

competition continued to be a major issue, especially in

the Acholi sub-region, often leading to violence.

Politicians were criticized for leaving their districts for

urban areas and becoming disconnected from their

constituencies, further dividing the activity in the

center from the problems in the periphery.

Reports of non-state armed actors were received from

various districts in the northern region, including

reports of cross-border issues in Karamoja. Some

weapons were recovered, and a number of shootings

T he period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in

Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in

August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed


Election Security and Stability

Economy

Demographic Pressures

Human Flight/Brain Drain

Refugees or Displaced Persons

Group Grievance

Uneven Development

Legitimacy of the State

Public Services

Human Rights

Security Apparatus

Factionalized Elites

External Intervention

Social

Political

Economic

The Indicators

The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought

include social, economic, and political/military

pressures on the state:

occurred throughout Uganda between August and

December.

This report provides an overview of incidents and

issues across the country, as reported by the UNLocK

participants during the five months of August to

December 2010. This report does not presume to be

comprehensive or evenly distributed from one district

to the other. However, it provides a glimpse into the

concerns and perspectives of a particular network of

civil society organizations, trained in conflict

assessment.

Findings

This is a summary of the civil society field reports from

the five month period of August to December, 2010. It

is organized by indicator, with maps showing affected

regions and districts. Those outlined in red are districts

that have field reports associated with them. A red

outline does not necessarily mean that it is worse off

than the districts lacking in data, though it does

highlight problems that need to be addressed in that

particular district or sub-county, as reported by local

civil society. The maps do not reflect the most recent

changes to the administrative borders of some districts.

Broken out by indicator and district, 198 reports were

logged during the period in question. Of the 12 CAST

indicators, issues relating to State Legitimacy (47

reports) were of greatest concern to civil society,

followed by Public Services (27 reports), Demographic

Pressures (22 reports), Factionalized Elites (22 reports),

Security Apparatus (22 reports), External Intervention

(15 reports), Human Rights (13 reports), Group

Grievances (11 reports), Economic Decline (9 reports),

Refugees/IDPs (6 reports), Uneven Development (2

reports) and Human Flight (1 report).

Geographically, 39% of the reports came from the

Acholi sub-region in the North (77 reports). It was

followed by Buganda in the Center (27 reports), West

Nile (26 reports), Karamoja (18 reports), and Teso (18

reports). In total, 62% of the reports came from the

northern region of the country.

Methodology

Since 2008, The Fund for Peace (FfP) has conducted

four training workshops in conflict early warning,

based on our conflict assessment methodology (CAST)

in Uganda. Participants included a broad range of civil

society representatives from the country, the goals

being to enable them to recognize potential danger

signs, document events, gather data from across the

country and communicate it to each other and the FfP

for processing and analysis. This information is to be

used both for the identification of immediate concerns

as well as to inform conflict-sensitive approaches to

development and policy for the long term.

Since the UNLocK Uganda early warning system was

established in 2008, over 960 reports (broken out by

indicator and district) have been entered into the

database. The data generated by the participants has

been saved on a password-protected website, which is

accessible by the participants for their own analysis

and for the corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.

Election Security and Stability


Reported Demographic Pressures

Land continues to be a primary source of conflict

within the country. Competition over land has led to

violence and death. There were also a number of

reports of disease outbreaks in the northern districts.

Natural disasters in the form of fire and flooding have

led to problems with food supply.

• Flooding in Pader (District 68) and Soroti (District

74) has led to food scarcity.

• Fires in Gulu (District 17) reportedly destroyed 40

huts, leaving people homeless.

• Reported health issues included jiggers in Kitgum

(District 42), which caused school closures. Red-eye

was reported in Adjumani and Moyo (Districts 2

and 58). Yellow fever was reported in Pader

(District 68).

• Land competition continues to be a major issue. For

instance, it was reported that in Gulu and Amuru

(Districts 17 and 39) there was a border dispute

between people of Atiak and Palaro sub-counties.

Within Amuru (District 39) a land dispute was

reported between the people of Pabbo and Amuru

sub-counties.

• Concerns about land competition between nomadic

Balalo herdsman and the communities in Amuru

(District 39) were expressed in the reports.

29

6

58

2

39

17

42

68

4

35

74

30

Uganda


Analysis by Select Indicators


Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy

During this five-month period, government corruption

and election irregularities were the largest concern

with respect to state legitimacy. With the 2011

elections approaching, election irregularities and voter

intimidation were concerns in some areas. Doubts

were expressed about the independence of the

Electoral Commission.

• There was political violence reported during the

NRM primaries.

• It was reported that there were problems with the

voter registry in Kaabong (District 22).

• The Inter-Party Cooperation accused the military of

intimidating supporters of the opposition.

• In Adjumani (District 2) there were reports of severe

tension between incumbent MP, Santos Eruaga and

Moses Ali. This tension has included allegations of

rigging and ethnic polarization.

• Government corruption was reported by UNLocK

participants, including embezzlement and inflating

payrolls with “ghost workers.” For example, it was

reported that there were 300 ghost workers on the

Mulago National Referral Hospital payroll in

Kampala (District 29).

• In Pader (District 68) the District Water Officer was

arrested for failure to account for money used for

drilling boreholes.

• The Chief Administrative Officer and Chief Finance

Officer were arrested for embezzling 80 million

Ugandan Shillings which were meant for teachers'

salaries in Koboko (District 43).

Reported Pressures on Public Services

Reported pressures on public services related mostly to

education and health care. There were a few reports of

inadequate policing, relating to electoral violence and

some concern about the supply of water and electricity.

• It was reported that in Gulu (District 17) there was a

shortage of government subsidized drugs in the free

clinics, especially in the rural areas.

• Problems with maternal healthcare were reported in

Kitgum (District 42).

• People were reportedly angry in Arua (District 6)

because of problems with electricity supply.

• In Arua, maternal mortality has reportedly increased.

• Inadequacies in the education system were reported

in Gulu (District 17) and Kampala (District 29).

• A water shortage was reported in Soroti (District

74).

29

6

58

2

39

17

42

68

4

35

74

69

77

43 22

47

16

64

29

6

58

17

42

68

74

77

Uganda

Uganda



Reported Human Rights Violations

Violent crime dominated this indicator, comprising

three-quarters of reports from August to December,

2010. These included reports of murder, shootings,

arson, and violent revenge for adultery and land

disputes.

• Two UPDF soldiers were reportedly arrested in

connection to robbery in Koboko (District 43).

Koboko, which borders DR Congo and South Sudan,

reportedly experiences high levels of smuggling and

armed robberies, with criminals hiding in the three

countries.

• In Gulu (District 17) Simon Komakech, the brother

of Denis Okema, the UPC MP candidate for Gulu

municipality, was stabbed to death at his home the

day after Christmas.

• In Abim (District 1) it was reported that a man was strangled to death by a gang. On the day of his

burial, one person was lynched in revenge.

29

2

39

17 68

1

43

Reported External Intervention

When the state is dependent on outside donors to meet

its development needs and provide basic public

services, it indicates a lack of capacity on the part of

the state to meet its obligations to its people. In

addition, when the state cannot control its borders,

external intervention can occur by armed groups.

• Concern about the lack of government capacity as

reflected by a dependence on external donors in the

areas of infrastructure development and governance

programs was highlighted in Amuru (District 39),

Gulu (District 17), Kitgum (District 42), and Oyam

(District 67).

• In Moyo (District 58) a Sudanese game ranger

reportedly shot a Ugandan boy dead for poaching.

This is the second time this game ranger has

allegedly killed a Ugandan and people are

reportedly calling for revenge.

• In Kotido (District 44), pastoralists from Kenya

reportedly attacked and injured a local political

leader and killed one UPDF soldier. Ten animals

were stolen but were later recovered by the UPDF.

76

58

39

17

42

68 44

67

Uganda

Uganda



Reported Pressures from Factionalized Elites

Prior to elections, factionalization of the elites is

expected. Such factionalization is important to

moderate so that after the election there can be a

smooth transition from campaigning to governance.

• There was political violence during the NRM

primaries. Reports included incidents in Kampala

(District 29) and Sembabule (District 72).

• In Gulu (District 17) it was reported that radio

stations at times allowed political groups to air

threatening messages.

• In Kampala (District 29), the Kabaka of Buganda

was widely perceived to be encouraging his people

to vote for the opposition FDC candidate, despite

the constitutional prohibition against traditional

leaders engaging in “partisan politics.” There has

been a recent history of violent protest by his

supporters, and crackdowns by the security forces.

• In Adjumani (District 2) there were reports of severe

tension between incumbent MP, Santos Eruaga and

Moses Ali. This tension has included allegations of

rigging and ethnic polarization.

• In Kabarole (District 24), there was tension when the

Toro Kingdom prime minister was dismissed by the

king, who was abroad at the time. Some clan

leaders and elders resisted his dismissal. Police

intervened to restore order.

• Tension was reported in Arua (District 6) over the

proposed new Maracha District and the location of

its headquarters.

Reported Pressures on Security Apparatus

Violence perpetrated by non-state armed groups was

most problematic in the Karamoja region, as reported

by the UNLocK participants. Additional pressures

were reported in other parts of the country.

• Clashes reportedly occurred at political rallies in

Gulu (District 17) and Sembambule (District 72).

• In Pader (District 68), a couple was reportedly

murdered by a gunman over a land dispute. In a

separate Pader incident, one looter, armed with an

AK47, was apprehended.

• As in previous UNLocK reports, during this period

there were reports of mob/vigilante justice. In

Abim (District 1) one man was killed by a gang and

on the day of his funeral another was lynched in

revenge.

29

6

2

17 68

24

72

75

64

29

6 1

17 68

62 74

72

44

22

64

Uganda

Uganda


Acholi Sub-region

During this period the Acholi subregion generated

the most reports, with 76 out of 198. As illustrated in

the bar chart below, reports dealt primarily with

concerns about state legitimacy, given the election

season.

However, apart from the election issues, land

competition continued to be a major pressure in the

region. Land competition was reported in Palaro

(Subcounty 8), Atiak (Subcounty 1), Pabbo

(Subcounty 2), Amuru (Subcounty 3), Kilak

(Subcounty 49), and Pajule (Subcountry 48).

Land competition continued to be a major issue in the

Acholi sub-region in part due to the recent return of

many people who had been displaced. Now that

there is relative peace throughout the north, people

are returning to their ancestral lands, which often

leads to disputes over land ownership.

The subcounty in the Acholi sub-region that

generated the most reports was Pajule (subcounty

48). Reported incidents included several unrelated

killings and a land dispute.

20

16

12

8

4

0

Acholi Sub-region Reports by Indicator: Aug-Dec 2010

See page 5 for a key to indicators

49

48

19

7

8

1

2

3

Acholi


Sub-regional Analysis

Sub-regional Analysis

Karamoja Sub-region

One of the least developed subregions of Uganda,

Karamoja, has historically had problems with cattle

rustling and corruption. With security forces spread

thinly, it is a difficult area to police. The

government has begun installing more security

measures like Anti-Stock Theft squads and other

Local Defense Units. The degree of cattle rustling

has reportedly gone down over the course of the

year. During this period there were some clashes

reported between pastoralists and UPDF soldiers.

Karamoja generated 18 reports this period (down

from 50 in the previous period), the majority of

which came from the Kaabong district and were

related to the security apparatus indicator.

The highlighted map shows which sub-counties

within the sub-region had specific reports. Violence

between government soldiers and non-state armed

groups was reported in Kaabong (Subcounty 5) and

Kacheri (Subcounty 9). Violence between a member

of a Local Defense Unit and a warrior was reported

in Loyoro (Subcounty 8). An ambush was reported

in Kalapata (Subcounty 3). Cattle raids were

reported in Sidok (Subcounty 7), Kalapata

(Subcounty 3), and Nakapelmoni (Subcounty 13). In

the latter two instances, it was reported that the

perpetrators were pastoralists from Kenya. The

authorities have been able to work with the Kenyan

security forces to coordinate the response to these

attacks. Cooperation between the two countries is

reportedly improving, which could have a positive

impact on this problem.

10

8

6

4

2

0

Karamoja Sub-region Reports by Indicator: Aug-Dec 2010

See page 5 for a key to indicators

8 7

5

3

9

13

15

Karamoja


Displaced people have returned home. People have

resumed their lives. However, in spite of

improvements on the security front, these summary

reports have consistently highlighted land competition,

corruption, vigilante justice, and problems with service

delivery. As of this writing, the 2011 presidential

election has taken place, with incumbent Yoweri

Museveni winning another five-year term. Based on

the field reports generated by this initiative, these

problem areas should be a priority to his

administration and other stakeholders, including the

international community.

This summary report, covering the period between

August and December, 2010, highlighted pressures

associated with the election campaign season. Issues

reported suggest that in future elections, greater care

must be taken with the electoral process to ensure that

there is no fraud or even perceived fraud. The

independence of the Electoral Commission should be

above question. Duplicate and missing names should

be avoided in the voter registry. Polling stations should

be legal and well run. Votes should not be bought with

cash or goods. Ethnically polarizing rhetoric should be

condemned. While security is important, security

forces should not be deployed in a way that is

perceived as intimidating. Monitoring of the process

by local civil society and outside groups should be

encouraged. Election violations must be promptly

investigated and prosecuted by the judiciary.

There was a lot of concern this time around that

protests could lead to violence if the election was not

perceived to be fair. Fortunately this has not taken

place, despite the call for protests by several opposition

candidates. Still, the potential for such violence

continues to be a risk.

As highlighted in these field reports, beyond the

election related concerns, broader issues of corruption

will need to be addressed over the course of President

Museveni’s next term of office. Corruption

undermines foreign investment. The embezzlement of

state and international aid funds has exacerbated

pressures on public service delivery. Greater

transparency, monitoring, and accountability are

necessary when allocating funds for education,

healthcare, and sanitation projects.

Land competition continues to be a major problem,

often leading to violence. The judicial system should

improve the grievance process, making it more timely

and accessible. People should be made aware of their

legal rights and the mechanisms that exist, so that they

will not resort to violence. State and local governments

should also focus more attention on the reintegration of

refugees and IDPs, especially in the northern region, as

their return exacerbates this problem.

Greater training, resourcing, and oversight of police

could decrease the level of vigilante justice, especially if

the police were to reach out to the communities more

effectively, building trust and lines of communication.

Though the situation in the North has undeniably

M uch has changed in Uganda during the last two years of this early

warning initiative. The Lord’s Resistance Army has been out of the

picture since 2006 and relative peace has taken hold in the North.


Looking Ahead


improved over the last two years, problems remain.

And now that neighboring South Sudan has chosen to

secede from Sudan, there is the potential that Northern

Uganda could be negatively affected if the move to

independence produces turbulence, refugees, or arms

smuggling. The West Nile and Karamoja sub-regions

would likely be the most directly affected by either

positive or negative developments in South Sudan.

This potential makes it all the more important that the

issues described in this report be dealt with as soon as

possible.

Looking Ahead

We promote sustainable security through research,

training and education, engagement of civil society,

building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing

innovative technologies and tools for policy makers.

A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning

field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of

weak and failing states. Our objective is to create

practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation

that are useful to decision-makers.

What Makes Us Unique

• The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to

the issues stemming from weak and failing states.

We work at both the grassroots level with civil

society actors and at policy levels with key

decision makers.

• The Fund for Peace has worked in over 50

countries with a wide range of partners in all

sectors: governments, international organizations,

t h e m i l i t a r y , n o n g o v e r n m e n t a l

organizations, academics, journalists, civil society

networks, and the private sector.

• Combining social science techniques with

information technology, we have produced the

patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST),

a content analysis software product that provides a

conceptual framework and a data gathering

technique for measuring conflict risk.

• We produce The Failed States Index, an annual

ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that

is published by Foreign Policy magazine.

Our Approach

The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives

focused on our central objective of promoting

sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its

own problems peacefully without an external military

or administrative presence. Our activities relate to six

interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early

warning and State Building; Peace and Stability

Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human

Rights; and Sustainable Development.

T he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit

research and educational organization that works to prevent violent

conflict and promote sustainable security.


About The Fund for Peace

CR-11-08-UL

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