Securing Energy Supply for Southern Africa Considering the ... · energy technology in South...

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1 brightsourceenergy.com Securing Energy Supply for Southern Africa Considering the Solar Thermal Power Option April, 2013

Transcript of Securing Energy Supply for Southern Africa Considering the ... · energy technology in South...

Page 1: Securing Energy Supply for Southern Africa Considering the ... · energy technology in South Africa.” ... Note: CA utility time-of-use factors based on PG&E and SCE data Load shape

1 brightsourceenergy.com

Securing Energy

Supply for Southern

Africa – Considering

the Solar Thermal

Power Option

April, 2013

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BrightSource Technology

Affordable Clean Energy in Southern Africa

CSP Value Proposition

Projects

Company Overview

Agenda

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BrightSource

Technology

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Integrating a Proprietary Technology with Conventional

Components to Deliver Highly Reliable, Renewable Power

HELIOSTATS Software-controlled field of

mirrors concentrate sunlight

on a boiler mounted on a

central tower.

OPTIMIZATION / CONTROL

SOFTWARE Proprietary optimization software and Solar Field

Integrated Control System manage heliostat

positioning to optimize concentrated sunlight on

the boiler.

STORAGE When integrated, cost-effective thermal energy

storage extends solar electricity production into

later parts of the day after the sun goes down.

AIR-COOLED

CONDENSER Low-impact design, using

over 90% less water than

competing solar thermal

technologies that use

conventional wet-cooling.

AUXILIARY GAS-

FIRED BOILER Allows for hybridization,

increased output and the

enabling of more reliable

electricity production.

TURBINE Steam powers turbine to produce

electricity – then is converted back to

water through an air-cooled condenser.

4

SOLAR RECEIVER / BOILER Concentrated sunlight converts water

in a boiler to high-temperature steam.1

1Jointly developed; includes both BrightSource and 3rd party intellectual property

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The Drivers for BrightSource CSP

Renewables to comprise an increasing share of

South Africa‟s future generation mix

Near-term, economic and environmental pressures

increase the need for reliable, cost-effective power

generation options

When able to leverage existing assets, BrightSource

can generate electricity with Concentrated Solar Power

(CSP) price-competitive with coal and natural gas

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BrightSource Advantages

Direct Steam at High

Temps & Pressures

Full Integration with Power Block

Higher efficiency, lower cost

Proven Integration

with Conventional Tech

Mature, bankable

technology

Large Operational

Flexibility

Greater scalability within existing South

African power base

Low technical and financial risk

Significant reduction in coal required and

emissions per kWh

Power Block and

Equipment Sharing Lower LCOE and CapEx

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Fuel Saver

- High-pressure solar steam feeds turbine to

reduce fuel consumption at constant power

Power Boost

- High-pressure steam injected into steam

turbine for overpressure conditions for

additional boost during peaks

while maintaining constant fuel

consumption

Focus: Power Block Sharing

Solar and hybrid configurations allow for dispatchable solar power

with hydrocarbon backup, resulting in lower costs for solar electricity

OPERATIONAL MODES

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De-couples fuel from price volatility

Decreases project-development cycle

Reduces dependence on fuel and water

Reduces emissions and fuel usage on KWh basis

Avoids fuel import costs

Increases plant output with minimal CapEx

Delivers dispatchable, renewable solar power

Financial Benefits

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Logistical suitability

- Proximity to coal mine & transportation

Land availability near power plant (100-150 acres)

Space within facility for additional equipment

Solar resource availability (DNI 2000 kWh/m2-y+)

Site Pre-Conditions

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Solar-only CSP

- Stand-alone CSP plant with

minimal fossil-fuel backup

- Provides power during the

solar day only

Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)

- Offers full range of operational flexibility for Fuel Saver

or Power Boost

- Capable of running in solar-only mode to maximize fuel savings

Solar Boost / Add-on

- Designed to integrate with existing coal plants within South Africa‟s grid

- Capable of operating as ISCC plant (depending upon configuration)

- Offers lower Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) without storage

Flexible Configurations for Integrating CSP

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Configurations: A Closer Look

MAIN OFFERING

FUEL REC. STEAM

STORAGE OPTION

SO

LA

R O

NL

Y

GA

S

CO

AL

MS

R

SR

SG

SU

B-C

R

SU

PE

R-C

R

NEW

BUILD

Solar-Only CSP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

CSP Power Block Lease ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2-4 hours

Molten Salt

ISCC-Integrated Solar Combined Cycle ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2-4 hours

Molten Salt

RETRO-

FIT

Solar Boost ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Solar Add-On ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2-4 hours

Molten Salt

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BrightSource Solar Plant with Thermal Energy Storage

Extends electricity production into later parts of the day and after sundown,

when valued most by utilities

Reduces the cost of renewable power: - Increases a plant‟s capacity factor / higher asset utilization

- Offers higher efficiencies than competing solar thermal power plants

Provides utilities with greater operational flexibility to shape production to account

for variable production of other intermittent resources

Offers utilities and grid operators additional operational and market value: - Balancing and shaping capabilities

- Ancillary services to support a reliable grid

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BrightSource’s Technology Advantages

Solar Receiver

Superheater

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Water Consumption

Technology Litres/MWhr

Estimate for Ivanpah solar-thermal (air cooled) 60

Solar photovoltaic (with panel washing) 113

Solar parabolic trough (air cooled) 295

Combined Cycle Gas (evaporative) 757

Coal (evaporative) 1,892

Solar power tower (evaporative) 2,271

Solar parabolic trough (evaporative) 3,028

Source: Estimate for Ivanpah based on calculations from public data; other data from “Concentrating Solar Power Commercial Application Study: Reducing Water

Consumption of Concentrating Solar Power Electricity Generation,” Report to Congress, U.S. Department of Energy. Accessed 7/26/10.

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Land Required

Sizes Est. Square Km Est. Hectares Est. Acres

1 MWp without

storage 0.03 3 7.4

1MWp with

storage 0.1 10 24.7

100MWp without

storage 3 or 1km by 3km 300 741

100MWp with

storage 10 or 5km by 2km 1,000 2,471

1GWp with

storage

100 or 10km by

10km 10,000 24,710

5GWp with

storage

500 or 20km by

25km 50,000 123,553

5GWp without

storage 150 10km by 15km 15,000 37,065

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* Capital Costs for Energy Output = Total Installed Costs ($) divided by Annual Expected Energy Output (MWh)

Note: Technology-related cost saving targets are based on current management estimates. Actual cost savings may not be achieved.

Industry-Leading Technology Roadmap:

Targeting Increased Efficiency, Lowered Costs

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Utility-Scale

Solar Solutions

for South Africa

“Concentrating Solar Power on

its own is deemed to be the most

promising large-scale renewable

energy technology in South Africa.”

ABN‟s David Williams speaks with Kadri Nassiep,

CEO of SANEDI, about CSP integration with South

Africa‟s coal-fired power plants.

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Future Electricity Mix in South Africa

There is a clear opportunity for the development of CSP systems in South Africa. The current allocation

is small compared to PV and wind allocation. The IRP will be reviewed biennially and will be possible

for CSP to receive further allocations especially considering hybridization potential with gas and coal

The South African electricity industry is presently at a cross road in its development.

Deregulation and attractive RE feed-in tariffs have opened the door for IPP’s

Baseload Coal, 88%

Baseload Nuclear, 5%

Pumped Storage, 4%

OCGT, 1%

Hydro, 2%

2000 Energy Mix

Baseload Coal, 45%

Baseload Nuclear,

13%

Pumped Storage, 3%

OCGT, 11%

CCGT, 2%

Imports, 8%

Renewables, 17% Hydro, 1%

2030 Expected Energy Mix (IRP Based)

Planned RE Capacity by 2030:

17.8 GW = 8.4GW

Solar PV

8.4GW

Wind

1GW

CSP + +

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Electricity Pricing Outlook in South Africa

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ZA

Rc

/kW

h (

20

12

R

ea

l)

Eskom's MYPD3 Tariff Increase Options (6% inflation; ZAR 2012 Real)

Corporate Plan Price Path Base Case Intermediate Case Zero Headroom Case Full

CSP Offers a Competitive option given the projected prices from 2017 onwards

Average electricity prices are expected to increase to 90c per kWh (real 2012) by 2017 rapidly decreasing the gap

with coal fired base load power. Should carbon taxation be included average costs will increase further.

These four options exclude a full IRP implementation, but

offer Eskom some “headroom” or retained earnings in

order to manage fundability depending on DoE‟s

decisions about future new build.

The MYPD application supersedes the long term tariff as it represents

the more accurate short term view of Eskom‟s funding requirements.

Nersa has been given a number of options from Eskom, due to the

uncertainty regarding allocation of future new build generation and the

need to manage their fundability.

The “Full” price path here, represents the tariff required for a full IRP

build – this is in line with the longer term view presented above.

Eskom’s MYPD3 Tariff Increase Options (Inflation at 6%; ZAR 2012 Real)

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Loads and Tariffs in South Africa

BSE’s technology would potentially be well suited to replace the fuel used to run SA’s fleet of peaking OCGT

plants; further analysis would need to be conducted with Eskom’s SO to determine the cost of saving fuel from

the peaking OCGT’s. CSP generation costs as peaking solutions may be a valid alternative

With little or no reserve margin, Eskom has been unable to comply with

maintenance schedules, leading to growing daily unplanned outages.

Technology

LCOE Benchmark for

SA (2012)

(c/kWh)

Eskom Existing Coal Fleet

35

Return to Service 108

Existing Nuclear 60

New Nuclear China* 40-50

New Nuclear France/USA*

64-100

Wind 85

PV 150

OCGT 350-450

New Build Coal (Medupi)

90-95

* Refers to country of origin

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The CSP

Value Proposition

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Solar Thermal Technology Has Large Addressable Markets

1 Estimated cumulative amount of solar thermal technology sales (e.g., solar field & boiler) and related services into the electricity generation market by 2020 (BrightSource

management estimate) 2 IEA estimate of cumulative solar thermal electricity generation market size by 2020 3 Estimated cumulative amount of solar thermal technology sales (e.g., solar field & boiler) and related services into the thermal enhanced oil recovery market by 2020 (BrightSource

management estimate) 4 CERA estimate of cumulative solar thermal penetration in thermal enhanced oil recovery market by 2020

Other Markets: Industrial Steam & Desalination

Thermal Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): $16 billion market by 20203 (27 GWth market4)

Electricity Generation: $200+ billion market by 20201 (147+ GW market2)

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Utilities Must Balance Reliability, Affordability and Environmental Goals

Solar Thermal:

A Clean, Reliable and Cost Competitive Energy Source

INTERMITTENT RELIABLE

DIR

TY

C

LE

AN

photo voltaic

wind

nuclear

natural gas

coal

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Chart Source: NERC – Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation

Load shape source: California‟s Electricity System Supply and Demand Overview, presentation by Jeffrey Byron, Commissioner, State Energy Resources Conservation

and Development Commission (energy commission), to the California State Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee, Informational Hearing, March 29, 2007.

PV Output Variability

… Requiring additional flexible generation to maintain reliability

Output Variability Impacts Grid Reliability

and Increases Costs …

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Wind and PV have Lower Reliability Due to Poor Alignment with System Peak Demand

Additional resources are needed to meet reliability requirements

Load shape source: California‟s Electricity System Supply and Demand Overview, presentation by Jeffrey Byron, Commissioner, State Energy Resources Conservation and

Development Commission (energy commission), to the California State Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee, Informational Hearing, March 29, 2007.

Production output of wind and PV are illustrative. Not drawn to scale with load shape curve.

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Note: CA utility time-of-use factors based on PG&E and SCE data

Load shape source: California‟s Electricity System Supply and Demand Overview, presentation by Jeffrey Byron, Commissioner, S tate Energy Resources Conservation

and Development Commission (energy commission), to the California State Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee, Informational Hearing, March 29, 2007.

Production output of PV and BrightSource Power Tower are illustrative. Not drawn to scale with load shape curve

Net System Cost is Used by Utilities to Evaluate Cost Competitiveness

Energy storage increases asset utilization and transforms

solar thermal into a high-value, flexible resource

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Net System Cost is Used by Utilities to Evaluate Cost Competitiveness Between Resource Alternatives

Number of panels /

mirrors / equipment

Cost to make it

Installed cost adds labor

and materials

LCOE

Integration costs

Market value of energy

(and ancillary services)

Availability at peak

demand

Capital costs

Capacity factor

Degradation

Operating costs

Basic financing

Energy Cost

Levelized Cost of Energy

(LCOE)

Net System Cost

Least-Cost, Best-Fit

(LCBF)

What it takes to

generate electricity

What it takes to

keep the lights on

Considers only

hardware

Considers

utility value

Considers additional

costs and energy

produced

Capital Cost

$ / W

What it takes to

make the hardware

Unlike other methodologies, Net System Cost

accounts for both costs and benefits

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“It [is] important for Edison to keep its customers’ total costs in mind going forward, which include

the integration costs of solar panels. We know those costs are real, and we’re trying to mitigate

those by having a balanced portfolio.” - - Marc Ulrich, Southern California Edison, VP of Alternative and Renewable Power (Bloomberg, November 2011)

The comparison of Net System Cost above is for illustrative purposes only and is not based on actual values.

BrightSource Offers Utilities a Superior Value Proposition Relative to Solar PV

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Western Cape Energy Market

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Western Cape – Current Situation

Population approx 5.0 million

Current Peak electricity demand – 5,200 Mega Watts

(between 17h00 & 20h00).

Average daily electricity demand – approx 4,000MW

Under normal daily

baseload conditions

between 2,090MW and

3,040MW has to be

imported via our 400kVA

transmission lines from „up

north‟ as it is cheaper than

operating local gas turbines;

power is not always

available! The transmission

line losses amount up to

20% of transmitted power.

Type Size Availability Cost

Koeberg (1984/5) – 2

nuclear reactors

(940MW & 970MW) – Total 1,910MW

one unit shuts down for 2 months every 18 months.

Gas turbines open cycle

9 at Atlantis (@147MW) =

1,323MW

5 @ Mossel Bay (@ 147MW) = 735MW -

Total 2,058MW

intended for only 10% load factor or 3 hrs/d!

Hydro-Pump Storage

Palmiet – 2 @ 200MW = Total

400MW

Only 78% of stored energy is recoverable maximum of 20 hours

generation per week from the

energy storage after 36 hrs pumping per week.

Electricity Supply

Total Electricity generating capacity in the Western

Cape is:- @ Baseload 1,910MW

Peak load 4,368MW

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Current Western Province network and CLNs

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Western Cape Province geographical network diagram

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Integration of Gas with CSTP

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The Western Cape Province development plan

expected peak demands by 2022 and the average

percentage load increase for the period for each CLN

are given in Table below

Peak Demand Forecast

TOTAL 4,637 5,288 5,718

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Switching from liquid transport fuel to electricity

represents a savings per kWh of energy of 80% in cost

- R3-6 per 100km using EV‟s vs. R60 per 100km for diesel at 2011

prices of oil

This allows for a premium to be charged for electricity

which is inline with the cost of generating cleaner energy

Health benefits – no emissions at the end user,

automatically reduces death caused by respiratory

diseases

However without switching from coal to renewables total

emissions will be the same or worse

Why Electric Vehicles

Source: Liu X, Hildebrandt D, Glasser D. Environmental impacts of electric vehicles in South Africa. S Afr J Sci. 2012;108(1/2), Art. #603,

6 pages. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajs. v108i1/2.603

Also Sasol website:

http://www.sasol.com/sasol_internet/frontend/navigation.jsp;jsessionid=JUZYYOFMAFZPHG5N4EZSFEQ?navid=22700008&rootid=2

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High Fuel Economy, Low Operating Cost

Flexible Fueling

High Performance

Low Emissions

Energy Security

Why Electric Vehicles

Source: Plug-In Electric Vehicle Handbook for Public Charging Station Hosts Plug-5

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All avenues need to be investigated:

- Solar PV

- Wind

- Solar Thermal Energy Power Plants with Molten Salt Storage

and Gas

- Nuclear

- Wave or Tidal

- Coal

- Gas

- Energy Efficiency (Solar Water Heaters, Heat Pumps etc…)

New Generation Options for Western Cape

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Evaluation of Generation Options

Technology Opportunity Weakness Cost Comments

Solar PV Roof top application at

demand

Variable output

requires backup

Total cost

including gas

backup is very

high

Small installations

doesn‟t support

large scale

economic

development

Concentrated Solar

Thermal with moteln

salt storage and gas

hybrid

Large scale baseload, high

local content, job creation

and skills transfer

High capital

requirements

(offset by low

operating costs)

Lowest lifecycle

net system cost

lowest carbon and

pollution footprint

Coal Cheap long term solution Long distance

transmission

Losses, Zero

security of supply

20% losses plus

carbon taxes,

rising coal and

water costs

Will always be

dependent on

Gauteng/Limpopo/

Mpumalanga

Wind Low cost , quick solution Very low capacity

factors and

unrealiable

Total cost

including gas

backup is high

Much higher visual

impact than any

other technology

Nuclear Large scale baseload Security threats Expensive when

including water

disalination, spent

fuel disposal and

decommissioning

costs

Very long lead

time leads to

mismatch between

supply and

demand decisions

Gas only Large baseload source Environmental

costs

Lowest cost Only enough for

50 years

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Source: Eskom – Ten-Year Development Plan 2013-2022 PAGE 6 GENERATION ASSUMPTIONS

CSP ACCORDING TO ESKOM

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Generation

The Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) generation has been set at 900MW in the 2010

IRP document. This is expected to increase again in later versions of the IRP. For

the purposes of this TDP update the 900MW is assumed to be nine 100MW plants

connected in the Upington and Paulputs areas.

The rest of the CSP plants are expected to be connected in the Upington area in line

with proposed 1,000MW Solar Park proposal that was studied in 2011.

These units will be run at maximum output during both the System peak and the

Local peak. They will not be run during the low load conditions at night.

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Ivanpah

Project Update

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Unit 1

Construction logistics area

Unit 2

Common Area

Substation (SCE)

Unit 3

Ivanpah: World’s Largest Solar Thermal Project

3 power plants

- 377 MW of electricity generation

- 20+ year contracts with PG&E and SCE

- 140,000 homes served annually

$2.2B project financing - April 2011

- Equity Investors: NRG, Google & BrightSource

- $1.63B DOE loan guarantee

Key dates

- Commenced construction – October 2010

- Estimated commercial operations – 2013 (Q2-Q4)

41

Located in Ivanpah Dry Lake, CA, the three-unit power system will

be built on 3,500 acres and create 2,100 construction jobs.

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Ivanpah Unit 1

42

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A View of Unit 1 and the Unit 2 Solar Field

43

Unit 2

Solar Field

Unit 1

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Satellite Imagery of Ivanpah

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Completed Solar Field

Approximately 60,000 heliostats for each tower

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Tower Installed

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Low Impact Design

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Heliostat Installation

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Capacity: 29 MWth for thermal EOR

Solar field: 3,822 heliostats

Location: Coalinga, CA

Delivered fully operational project to Chevron (Oct 2011)

Here Now: Chevron Solar-to-Steam for Thermal EOR

49

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High-Quality Site Portfolio for Electricity Generation in the U.S. Southwest

~9 GW Site Development Portfolio

Ivanpah: 377 MW

2013

Post-Ivanpah Projects: 1,000 MW

2016

Remaining Site

Portfolio (~8 GW)

Project Under

Construction

Remaining

Site Portfolio Advanced Development

Sites

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More than 50% of Global Oil Reserves Require Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) for Extraction

Chart Source: CERA estimate of cumulative solar thermal penetration in thermal enhanced oil recovery market by 2020

Advantages of

Solar Thermal EOR

Minimal emissions

Easy transmission given limited

access to other sources

No additional infrastructure required

Alternative to expensive fuel sources

Hedging against rising fuel costs

and/or carbon pricing

Minimal regulatory risk

Deep-pocketed customers with a

long-term focus

Total Solar Thermal EOR Market: 26.8 GWth

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Company

Overview

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Our proprietary technology concentrates the sun‟s

limitless energy to produce high-value electricity and steam

for power, petroleum and industrial process markets worldwide

Affordable Clean Energy

53

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BrightSource Highlights

$200+ billion global solar thermal electricity generation and $16 billion thermal enhanced oil recovery (EOR) markets

Strong global growth drivers for clean energy

Large, addressable

markets

Converts solar energy to high-value steam using proprietary systems that integrate storage

Addresses shortfalls of existing renewables (production profile, intermittency)

Strong IP portfolio (46 patents pending and approved, including 9 U.S. issued patents)

Superior technology

Significant scale

and growth

opportunities

$600+ million in revenues from first project under construction

High-quality development site portfolio of ~9 gigawatts in the U.S. Southwest

International expansion opportunities in key electricity generation and EOR markets

World-class strategic

relationships

Multiple end market opportunities and business model lead to diversified revenue streams

One of the largest U.S. solar pipelines with executed PPAs with two large utilities

High visibility of project-level economics, deployment schedule and potential system sales

Diversified business

model with high

revenue visibility

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Alignment with Key Strategic Partners & Customers

Project Equity Investors

Enhanced Oil Recovery Applications

International Business Expansion

Key Electricity Generation Customers

Engineering, Procurement & Construction

Proven Access to Growth Capital

Partners & Customers

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North Africa: Bids under way for 10-20% by 2020

RPS targets in multiple countries1

BrightSource Activities: Preparation for bids scheduled in 2012

Israel: Bids submitted for government

procurement of solar thermal2

India: National Solar Mission bidding

for 20 GW by 2022 under way5

BrightSource Activities: Site identification & bid preparation

with development partners

China: Government interest in large solar

thermal projects as part of 50 GW

solar by 2020 targets3

BrightSource Activities: Early stage partnership & customer

discussions & outreach to government

on CSP planning

Australia: Carbon tax passed to fund

renewables growth and shutdown

of coal capacity

20+ GW of renewables by 20204

BrightSource Activities: Late stage discussions for project &

bid preparation with existing partners

South Africa: 2030 integrated resource

plan calls for 9 GW of solar6

Government renewable IPP

bidding process under way

BrightSource Activities: Site and developer

identification in preparation

to submit bids

Ongoing feasibility study with

major industrial player

Key partnership country with Alstom

local presence

International Electricity Generation Expansion

Key partnership region with Alstom

local presence

Bid with Alstom for 110MW Ashalim

plant submitted (March 2011);

Follow up pricing and technical

discussions under way

Key partnerships with Alstom and Bechtel

local presence

1 MASEN, Sonelgaz 2 Renewable Energy Association of Israel 3 National Development & Reform Commission

4 REN21 Renewables 2011 Global Status Report (July 2011) - Assumes a

25% capacity factor for conversion from GWh to GW 5 Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, Indian Government 6 South African Department of Energy

Key partnership country with

Alstom and Sasol local presence

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BrightSource Pipeline Execution and Business Development at a Glance

Thermal EOR

International Electricity Generation

U.S. Electricity Generation

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World-Class Leadership Deep and experienced management team with prior successful execution in solar energy

25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Israel Kroizer EVP of Engineering,

R&D & Product Supply

20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Daniel T. Judge General Counsel and

Corporate Secretary

20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE John M. Woolard President & CEO

25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Jack Jenkins-Stark CFO

20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Stephen Wiley SVP of U.S. Project

Development

25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Joseph Desmond SVP of Government

Affairs and Communications

25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Ilan Glanzman General Manager,

BrightSource Operations

25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Yoel Gilon EVP of R&D

Mathew Brett SVP of International

Development

20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE

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brightsourceenergy.com

For more information,

please contact:

Daniel Schwab

Business Development South Africa

O +27 11 258 8744

D +27 11 258 8603

C +27 72 3344 308

F +27 11 258 8511

[email protected]

Thank You