Securing Energy Supply for Southern Africa Considering the ... · energy technology in South...
Transcript of Securing Energy Supply for Southern Africa Considering the ... · energy technology in South...
1 brightsourceenergy.com
Securing Energy
Supply for Southern
Africa – Considering
the Solar Thermal
Power Option
April, 2013
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BrightSource Technology
Affordable Clean Energy in Southern Africa
CSP Value Proposition
Projects
Company Overview
Agenda
3
BrightSource
Technology
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Integrating a Proprietary Technology with Conventional
Components to Deliver Highly Reliable, Renewable Power
HELIOSTATS Software-controlled field of
mirrors concentrate sunlight
on a boiler mounted on a
central tower.
OPTIMIZATION / CONTROL
SOFTWARE Proprietary optimization software and Solar Field
Integrated Control System manage heliostat
positioning to optimize concentrated sunlight on
the boiler.
STORAGE When integrated, cost-effective thermal energy
storage extends solar electricity production into
later parts of the day after the sun goes down.
AIR-COOLED
CONDENSER Low-impact design, using
over 90% less water than
competing solar thermal
technologies that use
conventional wet-cooling.
AUXILIARY GAS-
FIRED BOILER Allows for hybridization,
increased output and the
enabling of more reliable
electricity production.
TURBINE Steam powers turbine to produce
electricity – then is converted back to
water through an air-cooled condenser.
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SOLAR RECEIVER / BOILER Concentrated sunlight converts water
in a boiler to high-temperature steam.1
1Jointly developed; includes both BrightSource and 3rd party intellectual property
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The Drivers for BrightSource CSP
Renewables to comprise an increasing share of
South Africa‟s future generation mix
Near-term, economic and environmental pressures
increase the need for reliable, cost-effective power
generation options
When able to leverage existing assets, BrightSource
can generate electricity with Concentrated Solar Power
(CSP) price-competitive with coal and natural gas
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BrightSource Advantages
Direct Steam at High
Temps & Pressures
Full Integration with Power Block
Higher efficiency, lower cost
Proven Integration
with Conventional Tech
Mature, bankable
technology
Large Operational
Flexibility
Greater scalability within existing South
African power base
Low technical and financial risk
Significant reduction in coal required and
emissions per kWh
Power Block and
Equipment Sharing Lower LCOE and CapEx
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Fuel Saver
- High-pressure solar steam feeds turbine to
reduce fuel consumption at constant power
Power Boost
- High-pressure steam injected into steam
turbine for overpressure conditions for
additional boost during peaks
while maintaining constant fuel
consumption
Focus: Power Block Sharing
Solar and hybrid configurations allow for dispatchable solar power
with hydrocarbon backup, resulting in lower costs for solar electricity
OPERATIONAL MODES
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De-couples fuel from price volatility
Decreases project-development cycle
Reduces dependence on fuel and water
Reduces emissions and fuel usage on KWh basis
Avoids fuel import costs
Increases plant output with minimal CapEx
Delivers dispatchable, renewable solar power
Financial Benefits
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Logistical suitability
- Proximity to coal mine & transportation
Land availability near power plant (100-150 acres)
Space within facility for additional equipment
Solar resource availability (DNI 2000 kWh/m2-y+)
Site Pre-Conditions
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Solar-only CSP
- Stand-alone CSP plant with
minimal fossil-fuel backup
- Provides power during the
solar day only
Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)
- Offers full range of operational flexibility for Fuel Saver
or Power Boost
- Capable of running in solar-only mode to maximize fuel savings
Solar Boost / Add-on
- Designed to integrate with existing coal plants within South Africa‟s grid
- Capable of operating as ISCC plant (depending upon configuration)
- Offers lower Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) without storage
Flexible Configurations for Integrating CSP
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Configurations: A Closer Look
MAIN OFFERING
FUEL REC. STEAM
STORAGE OPTION
SO
LA
R O
NL
Y
GA
S
CO
AL
MS
R
SR
SG
SU
B-C
R
SU
PE
R-C
R
NEW
BUILD
Solar-Only CSP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
CSP Power Block Lease ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2-4 hours
Molten Salt
ISCC-Integrated Solar Combined Cycle ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2-4 hours
Molten Salt
RETRO-
FIT
Solar Boost ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Solar Add-On ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2-4 hours
Molten Salt
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BrightSource Solar Plant with Thermal Energy Storage
Extends electricity production into later parts of the day and after sundown,
when valued most by utilities
Reduces the cost of renewable power: - Increases a plant‟s capacity factor / higher asset utilization
- Offers higher efficiencies than competing solar thermal power plants
Provides utilities with greater operational flexibility to shape production to account
for variable production of other intermittent resources
Offers utilities and grid operators additional operational and market value: - Balancing and shaping capabilities
- Ancillary services to support a reliable grid
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BrightSource’s Technology Advantages
Solar Receiver
Superheater
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Water Consumption
Technology Litres/MWhr
Estimate for Ivanpah solar-thermal (air cooled) 60
Solar photovoltaic (with panel washing) 113
Solar parabolic trough (air cooled) 295
Combined Cycle Gas (evaporative) 757
Coal (evaporative) 1,892
Solar power tower (evaporative) 2,271
Solar parabolic trough (evaporative) 3,028
Source: Estimate for Ivanpah based on calculations from public data; other data from “Concentrating Solar Power Commercial Application Study: Reducing Water
Consumption of Concentrating Solar Power Electricity Generation,” Report to Congress, U.S. Department of Energy. Accessed 7/26/10.
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Land Required
Sizes Est. Square Km Est. Hectares Est. Acres
1 MWp without
storage 0.03 3 7.4
1MWp with
storage 0.1 10 24.7
100MWp without
storage 3 or 1km by 3km 300 741
100MWp with
storage 10 or 5km by 2km 1,000 2,471
1GWp with
storage
100 or 10km by
10km 10,000 24,710
5GWp with
storage
500 or 20km by
25km 50,000 123,553
5GWp without
storage 150 10km by 15km 15,000 37,065
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* Capital Costs for Energy Output = Total Installed Costs ($) divided by Annual Expected Energy Output (MWh)
Note: Technology-related cost saving targets are based on current management estimates. Actual cost savings may not be achieved.
Industry-Leading Technology Roadmap:
Targeting Increased Efficiency, Lowered Costs
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Utility-Scale
Solar Solutions
for South Africa
“Concentrating Solar Power on
its own is deemed to be the most
promising large-scale renewable
energy technology in South Africa.”
ABN‟s David Williams speaks with Kadri Nassiep,
CEO of SANEDI, about CSP integration with South
Africa‟s coal-fired power plants.
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Future Electricity Mix in South Africa
There is a clear opportunity for the development of CSP systems in South Africa. The current allocation
is small compared to PV and wind allocation. The IRP will be reviewed biennially and will be possible
for CSP to receive further allocations especially considering hybridization potential with gas and coal
The South African electricity industry is presently at a cross road in its development.
Deregulation and attractive RE feed-in tariffs have opened the door for IPP’s
Baseload Coal, 88%
Baseload Nuclear, 5%
Pumped Storage, 4%
OCGT, 1%
Hydro, 2%
2000 Energy Mix
Baseload Coal, 45%
Baseload Nuclear,
13%
Pumped Storage, 3%
OCGT, 11%
CCGT, 2%
Imports, 8%
Renewables, 17% Hydro, 1%
2030 Expected Energy Mix (IRP Based)
Planned RE Capacity by 2030:
17.8 GW = 8.4GW
Solar PV
8.4GW
Wind
1GW
CSP + +
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Electricity Pricing Outlook in South Africa
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ZA
Rc
/kW
h (
20
12
R
ea
l)
Eskom's MYPD3 Tariff Increase Options (6% inflation; ZAR 2012 Real)
Corporate Plan Price Path Base Case Intermediate Case Zero Headroom Case Full
CSP Offers a Competitive option given the projected prices from 2017 onwards
Average electricity prices are expected to increase to 90c per kWh (real 2012) by 2017 rapidly decreasing the gap
with coal fired base load power. Should carbon taxation be included average costs will increase further.
These four options exclude a full IRP implementation, but
offer Eskom some “headroom” or retained earnings in
order to manage fundability depending on DoE‟s
decisions about future new build.
The MYPD application supersedes the long term tariff as it represents
the more accurate short term view of Eskom‟s funding requirements.
Nersa has been given a number of options from Eskom, due to the
uncertainty regarding allocation of future new build generation and the
need to manage their fundability.
The “Full” price path here, represents the tariff required for a full IRP
build – this is in line with the longer term view presented above.
Eskom’s MYPD3 Tariff Increase Options (Inflation at 6%; ZAR 2012 Real)
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Loads and Tariffs in South Africa
BSE’s technology would potentially be well suited to replace the fuel used to run SA’s fleet of peaking OCGT
plants; further analysis would need to be conducted with Eskom’s SO to determine the cost of saving fuel from
the peaking OCGT’s. CSP generation costs as peaking solutions may be a valid alternative
With little or no reserve margin, Eskom has been unable to comply with
maintenance schedules, leading to growing daily unplanned outages.
Technology
LCOE Benchmark for
SA (2012)
(c/kWh)
Eskom Existing Coal Fleet
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Return to Service 108
Existing Nuclear 60
New Nuclear China* 40-50
New Nuclear France/USA*
64-100
Wind 85
PV 150
OCGT 350-450
New Build Coal (Medupi)
90-95
* Refers to country of origin
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The CSP
Value Proposition
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Solar Thermal Technology Has Large Addressable Markets
1 Estimated cumulative amount of solar thermal technology sales (e.g., solar field & boiler) and related services into the electricity generation market by 2020 (BrightSource
management estimate) 2 IEA estimate of cumulative solar thermal electricity generation market size by 2020 3 Estimated cumulative amount of solar thermal technology sales (e.g., solar field & boiler) and related services into the thermal enhanced oil recovery market by 2020 (BrightSource
management estimate) 4 CERA estimate of cumulative solar thermal penetration in thermal enhanced oil recovery market by 2020
Other Markets: Industrial Steam & Desalination
Thermal Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): $16 billion market by 20203 (27 GWth market4)
Electricity Generation: $200+ billion market by 20201 (147+ GW market2)
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Utilities Must Balance Reliability, Affordability and Environmental Goals
Solar Thermal:
A Clean, Reliable and Cost Competitive Energy Source
INTERMITTENT RELIABLE
DIR
TY
C
LE
AN
photo voltaic
wind
nuclear
natural gas
coal
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Chart Source: NERC – Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation
Load shape source: California‟s Electricity System Supply and Demand Overview, presentation by Jeffrey Byron, Commissioner, State Energy Resources Conservation
and Development Commission (energy commission), to the California State Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee, Informational Hearing, March 29, 2007.
PV Output Variability
… Requiring additional flexible generation to maintain reliability
Output Variability Impacts Grid Reliability
and Increases Costs …
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Wind and PV have Lower Reliability Due to Poor Alignment with System Peak Demand
Additional resources are needed to meet reliability requirements
Load shape source: California‟s Electricity System Supply and Demand Overview, presentation by Jeffrey Byron, Commissioner, State Energy Resources Conservation and
Development Commission (energy commission), to the California State Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee, Informational Hearing, March 29, 2007.
Production output of wind and PV are illustrative. Not drawn to scale with load shape curve.
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Note: CA utility time-of-use factors based on PG&E and SCE data
Load shape source: California‟s Electricity System Supply and Demand Overview, presentation by Jeffrey Byron, Commissioner, S tate Energy Resources Conservation
and Development Commission (energy commission), to the California State Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee, Informational Hearing, March 29, 2007.
Production output of PV and BrightSource Power Tower are illustrative. Not drawn to scale with load shape curve
Net System Cost is Used by Utilities to Evaluate Cost Competitiveness
Energy storage increases asset utilization and transforms
solar thermal into a high-value, flexible resource
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Net System Cost is Used by Utilities to Evaluate Cost Competitiveness Between Resource Alternatives
Number of panels /
mirrors / equipment
Cost to make it
Installed cost adds labor
and materials
LCOE
Integration costs
Market value of energy
(and ancillary services)
Availability at peak
demand
Capital costs
Capacity factor
Degradation
Operating costs
Basic financing
Energy Cost
Levelized Cost of Energy
(LCOE)
Net System Cost
Least-Cost, Best-Fit
(LCBF)
What it takes to
generate electricity
What it takes to
keep the lights on
Considers only
hardware
Considers
utility value
Considers additional
costs and energy
produced
Capital Cost
$ / W
What it takes to
make the hardware
Unlike other methodologies, Net System Cost
accounts for both costs and benefits
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“It [is] important for Edison to keep its customers’ total costs in mind going forward, which include
the integration costs of solar panels. We know those costs are real, and we’re trying to mitigate
those by having a balanced portfolio.” - - Marc Ulrich, Southern California Edison, VP of Alternative and Renewable Power (Bloomberg, November 2011)
The comparison of Net System Cost above is for illustrative purposes only and is not based on actual values.
BrightSource Offers Utilities a Superior Value Proposition Relative to Solar PV
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Western Cape Energy Market
30 Source: Alex. J. Ham – Independent Consultant - April 2012
Western Cape – Current Situation
Population approx 5.0 million
Current Peak electricity demand – 5,200 Mega Watts
(between 17h00 & 20h00).
Average daily electricity demand – approx 4,000MW
Under normal daily
baseload conditions
between 2,090MW and
3,040MW has to be
imported via our 400kVA
transmission lines from „up
north‟ as it is cheaper than
operating local gas turbines;
power is not always
available! The transmission
line losses amount up to
20% of transmitted power.
Type Size Availability Cost
Koeberg (1984/5) – 2
nuclear reactors
(940MW & 970MW) – Total 1,910MW
one unit shuts down for 2 months every 18 months.
Gas turbines open cycle
9 at Atlantis (@147MW) =
1,323MW
5 @ Mossel Bay (@ 147MW) = 735MW -
Total 2,058MW
intended for only 10% load factor or 3 hrs/d!
Hydro-Pump Storage
Palmiet – 2 @ 200MW = Total
400MW
Only 78% of stored energy is recoverable maximum of 20 hours
generation per week from the
energy storage after 36 hrs pumping per week.
Electricity Supply
Total Electricity generating capacity in the Western
Cape is:- @ Baseload 1,910MW
Peak load 4,368MW
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Current Western Province network and CLNs
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Western Cape Province geographical network diagram
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Integration of Gas with CSTP
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The Western Cape Province development plan
expected peak demands by 2022 and the average
percentage load increase for the period for each CLN
are given in Table below
Peak Demand Forecast
TOTAL 4,637 5,288 5,718
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Switching from liquid transport fuel to electricity
represents a savings per kWh of energy of 80% in cost
- R3-6 per 100km using EV‟s vs. R60 per 100km for diesel at 2011
prices of oil
This allows for a premium to be charged for electricity
which is inline with the cost of generating cleaner energy
Health benefits – no emissions at the end user,
automatically reduces death caused by respiratory
diseases
However without switching from coal to renewables total
emissions will be the same or worse
Why Electric Vehicles
Source: Liu X, Hildebrandt D, Glasser D. Environmental impacts of electric vehicles in South Africa. S Afr J Sci. 2012;108(1/2), Art. #603,
6 pages. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajs. v108i1/2.603
Also Sasol website:
http://www.sasol.com/sasol_internet/frontend/navigation.jsp;jsessionid=JUZYYOFMAFZPHG5N4EZSFEQ?navid=22700008&rootid=2
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High Fuel Economy, Low Operating Cost
Flexible Fueling
High Performance
Low Emissions
Energy Security
Why Electric Vehicles
Source: Plug-In Electric Vehicle Handbook for Public Charging Station Hosts Plug-5
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All avenues need to be investigated:
- Solar PV
- Wind
- Solar Thermal Energy Power Plants with Molten Salt Storage
and Gas
- Nuclear
- Wave or Tidal
- Coal
- Gas
- Energy Efficiency (Solar Water Heaters, Heat Pumps etc…)
New Generation Options for Western Cape
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Evaluation of Generation Options
Technology Opportunity Weakness Cost Comments
Solar PV Roof top application at
demand
Variable output
requires backup
Total cost
including gas
backup is very
high
Small installations
doesn‟t support
large scale
economic
development
Concentrated Solar
Thermal with moteln
salt storage and gas
hybrid
Large scale baseload, high
local content, job creation
and skills transfer
High capital
requirements
(offset by low
operating costs)
Lowest lifecycle
net system cost
lowest carbon and
pollution footprint
Coal Cheap long term solution Long distance
transmission
Losses, Zero
security of supply
20% losses plus
carbon taxes,
rising coal and
water costs
Will always be
dependent on
Gauteng/Limpopo/
Mpumalanga
Wind Low cost , quick solution Very low capacity
factors and
unrealiable
Total cost
including gas
backup is high
Much higher visual
impact than any
other technology
Nuclear Large scale baseload Security threats Expensive when
including water
disalination, spent
fuel disposal and
decommissioning
costs
Very long lead
time leads to
mismatch between
supply and
demand decisions
Gas only Large baseload source Environmental
costs
Lowest cost Only enough for
50 years
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Source: Eskom – Ten-Year Development Plan 2013-2022 PAGE 6 GENERATION ASSUMPTIONS
CSP ACCORDING TO ESKOM
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Generation
The Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) generation has been set at 900MW in the 2010
IRP document. This is expected to increase again in later versions of the IRP. For
the purposes of this TDP update the 900MW is assumed to be nine 100MW plants
connected in the Upington and Paulputs areas.
The rest of the CSP plants are expected to be connected in the Upington area in line
with proposed 1,000MW Solar Park proposal that was studied in 2011.
These units will be run at maximum output during both the System peak and the
Local peak. They will not be run during the low load conditions at night.
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Ivanpah
Project Update
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Unit 1
Construction logistics area
Unit 2
Common Area
Substation (SCE)
Unit 3
Ivanpah: World’s Largest Solar Thermal Project
3 power plants
- 377 MW of electricity generation
- 20+ year contracts with PG&E and SCE
- 140,000 homes served annually
$2.2B project financing - April 2011
- Equity Investors: NRG, Google & BrightSource
- $1.63B DOE loan guarantee
Key dates
- Commenced construction – October 2010
- Estimated commercial operations – 2013 (Q2-Q4)
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Located in Ivanpah Dry Lake, CA, the three-unit power system will
be built on 3,500 acres and create 2,100 construction jobs.
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Ivanpah Unit 1
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A View of Unit 1 and the Unit 2 Solar Field
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Unit 2
Solar Field
Unit 1
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Satellite Imagery of Ivanpah
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Completed Solar Field
Approximately 60,000 heliostats for each tower
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Tower Installed
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Low Impact Design
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Heliostat Installation
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Capacity: 29 MWth for thermal EOR
Solar field: 3,822 heliostats
Location: Coalinga, CA
Delivered fully operational project to Chevron (Oct 2011)
Here Now: Chevron Solar-to-Steam for Thermal EOR
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High-Quality Site Portfolio for Electricity Generation in the U.S. Southwest
~9 GW Site Development Portfolio
Ivanpah: 377 MW
2013
Post-Ivanpah Projects: 1,000 MW
2016
Remaining Site
Portfolio (~8 GW)
Project Under
Construction
Remaining
Site Portfolio Advanced Development
Sites
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More than 50% of Global Oil Reserves Require Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) for Extraction
Chart Source: CERA estimate of cumulative solar thermal penetration in thermal enhanced oil recovery market by 2020
Advantages of
Solar Thermal EOR
Minimal emissions
Easy transmission given limited
access to other sources
No additional infrastructure required
Alternative to expensive fuel sources
Hedging against rising fuel costs
and/or carbon pricing
Minimal regulatory risk
Deep-pocketed customers with a
long-term focus
Total Solar Thermal EOR Market: 26.8 GWth
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Company
Overview
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Our proprietary technology concentrates the sun‟s
limitless energy to produce high-value electricity and steam
for power, petroleum and industrial process markets worldwide
Affordable Clean Energy
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BrightSource Highlights
$200+ billion global solar thermal electricity generation and $16 billion thermal enhanced oil recovery (EOR) markets
Strong global growth drivers for clean energy
Large, addressable
markets
Converts solar energy to high-value steam using proprietary systems that integrate storage
Addresses shortfalls of existing renewables (production profile, intermittency)
Strong IP portfolio (46 patents pending and approved, including 9 U.S. issued patents)
Superior technology
Significant scale
and growth
opportunities
$600+ million in revenues from first project under construction
High-quality development site portfolio of ~9 gigawatts in the U.S. Southwest
International expansion opportunities in key electricity generation and EOR markets
World-class strategic
relationships
Multiple end market opportunities and business model lead to diversified revenue streams
One of the largest U.S. solar pipelines with executed PPAs with two large utilities
High visibility of project-level economics, deployment schedule and potential system sales
Diversified business
model with high
revenue visibility
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Alignment with Key Strategic Partners & Customers
Project Equity Investors
Enhanced Oil Recovery Applications
International Business Expansion
Key Electricity Generation Customers
Engineering, Procurement & Construction
Proven Access to Growth Capital
Partners & Customers
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North Africa: Bids under way for 10-20% by 2020
RPS targets in multiple countries1
BrightSource Activities: Preparation for bids scheduled in 2012
Israel: Bids submitted for government
procurement of solar thermal2
India: National Solar Mission bidding
for 20 GW by 2022 under way5
BrightSource Activities: Site identification & bid preparation
with development partners
China: Government interest in large solar
thermal projects as part of 50 GW
solar by 2020 targets3
BrightSource Activities: Early stage partnership & customer
discussions & outreach to government
on CSP planning
Australia: Carbon tax passed to fund
renewables growth and shutdown
of coal capacity
20+ GW of renewables by 20204
BrightSource Activities: Late stage discussions for project &
bid preparation with existing partners
South Africa: 2030 integrated resource
plan calls for 9 GW of solar6
Government renewable IPP
bidding process under way
BrightSource Activities: Site and developer
identification in preparation
to submit bids
Ongoing feasibility study with
major industrial player
Key partnership country with Alstom
local presence
International Electricity Generation Expansion
Key partnership region with Alstom
local presence
Bid with Alstom for 110MW Ashalim
plant submitted (March 2011);
Follow up pricing and technical
discussions under way
Key partnerships with Alstom and Bechtel
local presence
1 MASEN, Sonelgaz 2 Renewable Energy Association of Israel 3 National Development & Reform Commission
4 REN21 Renewables 2011 Global Status Report (July 2011) - Assumes a
25% capacity factor for conversion from GWh to GW 5 Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, Indian Government 6 South African Department of Energy
Key partnership country with
Alstom and Sasol local presence
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BrightSource Pipeline Execution and Business Development at a Glance
Thermal EOR
International Electricity Generation
U.S. Electricity Generation
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World-Class Leadership Deep and experienced management team with prior successful execution in solar energy
25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Israel Kroizer EVP of Engineering,
R&D & Product Supply
20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Daniel T. Judge General Counsel and
Corporate Secretary
20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE John M. Woolard President & CEO
25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Jack Jenkins-Stark CFO
20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Stephen Wiley SVP of U.S. Project
Development
25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Joseph Desmond SVP of Government
Affairs and Communications
25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Ilan Glanzman General Manager,
BrightSource Operations
25+ YEARS EXPERIENCE Yoel Gilon EVP of R&D
Mathew Brett SVP of International
Development
20+ YEARS EXPERIENCE
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brightsourceenergy.com
For more information,
please contact:
Daniel Schwab
Business Development South Africa
O +27 11 258 8744
D +27 11 258 8603
C +27 72 3344 308
F +27 11 258 8511
Thank You