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KACCC NEWSLETTER AUTUMN 2012Sectoral Adaptation Master Plan & Supportive Activities

ㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 02 The Impacts and Adaptation of Climate Change in the Field of Agriculture ㅣ 03

Dr. Huicheul Jung(Korea adaptation Center for Climate Change, KeI)

Along with a sudden increase in the demand for food and a serious shortage of agricultural land and water, climate change is expected to exacerbate food shortage all over the world. Global warming, which is caused by the increase in greenhouse gases, is changing in the climate system and affecting agricultural production. In addition, frequent outbreaks of extreme weather events such as cold waves, heavy snowfall, floods, and droughts directly show how vulnerable the world food production system and agricul-ture market are to climate change. The intense drought that occurred in the summer of 2010 has limited the export of wheat, cereal, and other grains from Russia and Ukraine, the two major global grain producers. The drought also increased the imports of food in China, and as a result, caused a global agflation, inflation in global grain prices. This agflation has instigated the sense of crisis in impover-ished and developing countries, and has become a catalyst for a hoard of grains and political problems. Experts predict that there will be a worldwide shortage of grains for next ten years. If the decrease in food production and the imbalance of supply and demand continue to worsen due to climate change, they are expected to increase financial burdens and threaten food security in Korea, which is a country with a low food self-sufficiency rate.

The followings are the adverse consequences of climate change in the agricultural field: 1) weakened agricultural foundation by the loss of soil and the shortage of water, 2) northward movement of crop cultivation areas, 3) spread

The Impacts and Adaptation of Climate Change in the Field of Agriculture

of diseases, pests, and the weed due to the temperature rise in the winter, 4) reduction of quantity and quality of crop production due to the decrease in growth duration of crops, early fruitbearing and, 5) reduction of livestock milk production and the increase in animal diseases due to heat wave. All countries in the world are putting efforts to manage climate change impacts in the agricultural field in order to minimize negative impacts of climate change and secure the stability of food supply. Systematic climate change adaptation requires efforts to establish a compre-hensive climate change adaptation plan, which includes policy, technical, and socio-economic elements. First of all, the establishment of a political management system should be established to develop and coordinate emergen-cy measures, improve the distribution structure, and secure farmers' income by providing a comprehensive master plan. In technical side, national research and development process should be reinforced, to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, expand agricultural foundation, develop a variety of cultivation techniques to maintain the produc-tion capacity, and improve the prediction of future climate and agricultral production. In addition, there should be efforts to create a new income security and increase the opportunity for agricultural business and social adaptation through improved national response capacity.

Climate change is now an inevitable reality. In the face of such problem, Korea should go beyond the current measures and transform the problem into an opportunity

by an active response. Korea is making an effort to deal with the changes in agricultural environment by establishing adaptation plans at the national and local government level. In the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategies (2011-2015), published in 2010, the following goals are proposed for Korean climate change adaptation: 1) development and pro-vision of cultivation techniques and crop varieties in order to improve the agricultural production system, 2) development of livestock breed that is adaptive to climate change in order to improve the productivity of livestock industry, 3) development and provision of breeding techniques, 4) improvement of adapta-tion processes by responding to climatic damage, disease and pests, and livestock diseases in order to reduce damages on agriculture. Last year, central and local governments established the detailed implementation plans and are currently carrying out specific actions in the field of agriculture. In order for plans to be successfully implemented, active and continuous cooperation among government at departments as well as strong support from central government to local governments are required.

KACCC Newsletter Autumn 2012What's inside

01. agriculture

02. ecosystem

03. clmate change adaptation research

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Climate Change Impacts on the Ecosystem and the Need for Adaptation

The Direction of Biological Diversity Policy Developmentfor the Adaptation of Climate Change

Adaptation Policies for Ecosystem

Economic Analysis of Climate Change Impact in Korea : Agriculture

The Impact of Climate Change on the Ecosystem :The Case of Wetland Plants


K O R E A A D A P T A T I O N C E N T E R F O R C L I M A T E C H A N G E

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEM


ㅣㅣ KACCC NEWSLETTER · SUMMER 2012 04 05

With abnormal weather becoming more common due to climate change, frequent rainfall and insufficient amount of sunshine are hindering growth and development. In addition, due to the increase of disease and pests and decrease of cultivation areas, rice production in the year of 2010 dropped approximately 9.1% compared to average year (4,723 tons). The production of summer chinese cabbage dropped 40% compared to average year (2,502,000 tons) and, as a result, prices once skyrocketed up to ten thousand won per head. Even in the case of pears, with the decrease of cultivation areas and low temperature during blossoming season, production in the year of 2010 dropped 30% (3,008,000 tons) compared to average year (4,309,000 tons). In addition, the amount of money spent on recovering from climatic damages reached 900 billion won. Such cases show that financial costs following climate change are increasing more and more.

AGRICULTURE

Sectoral Adaptation Master Plan : Agriculture l Ecosystem l Climate Change Adaptation Research

A need for agriculture to also adapt to the changing climate in response to a series of climatic damages

ㅣㅣ KACCC NEWSLETTER · SUMMER 2012 12 13Sectoral Adaptation Master Plan : Agriculture l Ecosystem l Climate Change Adaptation Research

In the Fourth Evaluation Report of IPCC, the climate change impacts on biological diversity are pointed out. If worldwide average temperature rises to 1.5~2.5℃ (compared to 1980~1999), approximately 20~30% of the species we know of will become endangered, and if the average temperature rise goes beyond approximately 3.5℃, it is predicted that a critical species extinc-tion phenomenon (40~70%) will occur on a global scale. The fact that the extinction of species is increasing implies that biological diversity is being destructed in a global scale.

ECOSYSTEM

The Need for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change

Adaptation Policies for Agriculture

The Direction of Policy Development for the Adaptation of Climate Change

ㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 04 05 05

With abnormal weather becoming more common due to climate change, frequent rainfall and insufficient sunshine are hindering growth and development of plants. In addition, due to the increase of disease and pests and decrease of cultivation areas, rice production in 2010 dropped approximately 9.1% compared to the annual average(4,723 tons). The production of summer chinese cabbage dropped 40% compared to the annual average(2,502,000 tons) and, as a result, its price once skyrocketed up to ten thousand won per head. With the decrease of cultivation areas and low temperature during blossoming season, production in 2010 dropped 30% (3,008,000 tons) compared to the annual average(4,309,000 tons). In addition, the amount of money spent to recover from climatic damages reached 900 billion won. Such cases show that financial costs by climate change are increasing more and more.

Agriculture


A need for agriculture to adapt to changing climate in response to a series of climatic damages

ㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 06 07

Agricultural production foundation in Korea is continu-ously declining due to the intensification of climate change, reduction of agricultural lands, and aging of the population in agricultural industry. Also, in the situation with the lowest domestic self-sufficiency rate of grain in the OECD(26.7%), it is evident that Korea's food security will fall into an unsolvable crisis, if international supply and demand of food decline. The Rural Development Administration(RDA) is trying to become a footstone to maintain a stable food production and supply, by setting its agricultural research goal as productivity improvement and income stabilization. With these goals, RDA has developed and supplied crop varieties and cultivation methods that are tailored to climate conditions and soil characteristics of each region. Since 2009, through the R&D Agenda system, a comprehen-sive and systematic research on future agricultural techniques in response to climate change has been carried out. However, recent abnormal weather events, such as heavy snowfall, sudden cold wave, unusually cold temperature and insufficient sunlight in spring, highland droughts, regional torrential rains, typhoons, and summertime heat wave, have not been predicted accurately, limiting the preparation of countermeasures on those climatic damages. Especially in 2010, the imbalance between supply and demand of staple fruits and vegetables such as chinese cabbage and radish led to the dramatic increase of the prices of agricultural products, and this has caused agflation as well as overall inflation.

Now, the climate change era has kicked into high gear and this era will be an new opportunity in the field of agriculture. In other words, by creating a stable production base in the food sector and developing green agricultural technology, which is the core of climate

change adaptation techniques, we can prepare against food crisis that might be caused by climate change. First of all, adaptive crop varieties and cultivation methods should be developed and provided, and stable production techniques for crops and livestock should be developed and contributed for the stabilization of the nation's economy. These strategic adaptation measures need to be established by RDA as follows: 1) plant-resistant and disaster-tolerant food crop varieties should be developed, 2) food self-sufficiency rate should be increased by developing tools for impact assessments and response techniques, 3) Cultivation methods for horticultural varieties which have strong adaptability to climate change should be developed, 4) new income sources for farmhouses should be created by selecting and introducing tropical/subtropi-cal crop varieties, 5) climate change countermeasures for each species should be improved, 6) feeding and management techniques should be developed, and 7) a stable livestock production base should be built by establishing measures to evaluate and introduce grasslands and forage crops.

In addition, A plan to secure the foundation of stable production should be set by constructing a national diseases and pests forecasting system, an impact assessment system for agricultural ecosystems, and a disaster prevention system to respond to climate change. Techniques for forecasting and modeling diseases and pests and a forecasting system with a ubiquitous foundation should be developed primarily, and damages due to climate change should be mini-mized by developing techniques to asses impacts on the agricultural ecosystem. For those to be realized, it is important for the RDA to do the followings: 1) develop information technologies for the national forecast

The Need for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change


Lately, mankind has experienced climate change by greenhouse gases effects. Compared to the 1970's, the average tempera-ture in the 2000’s has increased by 1.03℃, annual precipitation increased by 198mm, and annual daytime hours decreased by 379hr. Such phenomena have brought drastic changes in the agricultural field, as well, since it is directly influenced by weather together with supply and demand. Some of the biggest changes seem to be occurring in agricultural production areas and transition of plantations. For instance, the apple production areas of Daegu (35¡36'~36¡01' north latitude), which was one of the main apple production area in South Korea, have decreased 75% (623ha -> 157ha) in last 30 years. In contrast, Cheongsong(36¡9'~36¡35'north latitude)'s apple production areas have increased by approximately 210% (802ha->2,479ha). Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries predicted that if the temperature of South Korea increases by 2℃, Jeju and Ulleung Island, as well as the southern and eastern coasts of Korea, will turn into subtropical regions by 2050. On that prediction, rice production will decrease by 4.4%, apple (Fuji) production areas by 34%, and summer chinese cabbage by 70%; whereas there will be an increase in possible cultivation areas for tangerines by 36 times, along with a 4 times greater pos-sibility for the cultivation of other subtropical crops such as avocado. Furthermore, if the temperature increases by 4.2℃ by 2100, it is predicted that the subtropical climate regions, which includes Jeju Island and parts of the southern coast of Korea, will be expanded to the central parts of the western and eastern coasts (excluding Taebaek and Sobaek). For this threats from agricultural disasters caused by climate change have grown; Korea Rural Economic Institute speculates that if there is a 1℃ increase of temperature, the total agricultural income will decrease about 260~400 million won for every hectare(ha).

Changes in agriculture and extents due to climate change

network by enhancing the methods to forecast unexpected and migrating diseases and pests, 2) create a network of migrating diseases and pests among the East Asian countries, 3) prepare the counterplans by evaluating the cli-matic vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem, 4) secure the foundation of stable crop production by efficiently managing the water resources for agricultural use and developing scientific water management techniques for farmland, and 5) build a stable crop production foundation by introducing agricultural weather information and application system and developing techniques to reduce climatic damage.

The goal of former agricultural researches was focused mainly on food productivity, and accordingly over-looked the big challenge called 'climate change.' However, as climate change and abnormal weather conditions become more common, the role of the agricultural sector is getting more important. Therefore, agricultural science, which plays a key role in the green growth industry, should be positioned as the core technology in the climate change adaptation sector. Dr. seungyong ra(President of national academy of agriculture science)

ㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 08 09Sectoral Adaptation Master Plan : Agriculture l Ecosystem l Climate Change Adaptation Research

The Ministry of Environment, along with 13 other Ministries, chose 10 fields - including water management, forests, etc. - and established the 'National Climate Change Adaptation Master Plan(2011~2015)' in October 2010. Among these, the agricultural field has been aimed for 'reducing damage and creating opportunities by transf0rming to climate adaptation agricultural production system' under the supervision of the Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries and Rural Development Administration. The detailed plans are as below;

Reduce damage and create opportunities by transforming to climate adaptation agricultural production system

·Develop crop cultivation techniques and new species which are adaptive to climate change, and promote their distribution·Promote effective use of agricultural water and provide stable supply measures·Prevent damages from storm and flood, forecast pest/domestic livestock disease occurrences, and establish their prevention system

Adaptation Policies for Agriculture

Evaluate/predict climate change impacts and develop/distribute adaptive species and new crops- Develop impact assessment and prediction model for each crop, and support the establishment of national strategies- Develop species with increased adaptability to high temperature, disaster tolerance, and resistance to diseases and pests- Develop and distribute tropical/subtropical crops (mango, okra, artichoke, etc.)

Analyze the changes in crop-raising periods caused by climate change and develop/distribute adaptive cultivation techniques

- Distribute the maps indicating changes in bio-season, the guidelines for optimum cultivation management, and the guidelines to transform cropping system

Develop adaptive management techniques for livestock and establish stable supply and demand system for forage (straw, hay, etc.)- Set the standards and distribute the guidelines for improvement and specification of feeding management of livestock which can adapt to high-temperature('14) - Develop a new variety of forages for better environmental adaptation, and establish a seed production system

Establish a demand-side management system for agricultural water and a stable water supply system, and enhance water-purity control of reservoirs- Distribute agricultural water management techniques, expand water-saving infrastructure, and improve irrigation facilities

Evaluate vulnerability of the agricultural and livestock industry against climate change, develop climate disaster reduction techniques, and strengthen facilities

- Analyze vulnerable areas by the types of disaster and reset the production limitation line by the types of crops in preparation of abnormal weather events('13) - Establish and implement responsive measures by the types of agricultural infrastructure facilities

Establish prediction/early responsive system of diseases and pests and predict the occurrence of foreign diseases and pests

- Distribute techniques which can prevent unexpected diseases and pests at an early stage, make weather maps which indicate foreign disease and pest occurrences, and provide a web-based real-time search information system for prediction of foreign disease and pest occurrences


The Direction of agricultural policy development for the adaptation of climate change

Today, it seems like climate change is acknowledged internationally. Since the earth has changed through history, it is not surprising that climate is also changing. So then why is this news such a sensational topic for discussion? The answer can be found in literatures, which show great effects of climate on human life. There are numerous theories about the Dark Ages, a period led by inactivity and cold climate which eventually resulted in a decrease of crop cultivation, and stories about the migration and expansion of mankind due to climate changes. It is safe to say that the history of mankind is of overcoming nature. However, it was during modern times that human has success-fully overcome the obstacles of nature by implementing farming to overcome food crisis, increasing productivity with developed house-hold accommodations (i.e. lighting), and so on. Human has forgot the troubles of climate change during these times of modern development due to stable climate. By looking at hard evidences(fruits such as ap-ples growing in Gangwon-do and being able to grow bamboo trees in Seoul), it is a solemn fact that climate in Korea is changing, as well.

Just as climate in our country is changing, the agricultural policy has been changed according to the changes and demands of society. Even after liberation, agricultural policy changed drastically over three generations: the era of self-sufficiency in staple grains achieved through the Green Revolution during a time of food shortages, the era of agriculture automation (modernization of farmland, agricultural mechanization, etc.) achieved during industrialization when manpow-er was needed, and the era of rural modernization policy, where it was necessary to build coexistent lifestyles and complex industrial designs into the dilapidated farmlands during a highly advanced period of time. So what other changes does global warming bring to our society? First of all, there will be changes in lifestyle in order to adjust to the

changing climate, as well as changes in resources which are directly related to the climate. Lifestyles accustomed to current climate will be readjusted to fit subtropical climates, and there will be a difference in the supply and demand of natural resources such as water and forest re-sources. According to such changes in basic foundational systems, the industrial structure will change, the energy utilization system will reorganize itself, and the goals of ecological consumption (necessities of everyday life such as food, clothing, and shelter) and welfare will change. Preparations for disease preventions and meteorological disasters are urgently requested but they are sensitive issues to handle due to the fact that there are not many research results gathered at the moment.

With the changes of climatic environment, the environment of agricultural policy has considerably changed. Immediately after liberation, agri-business was the sole industry of the nation; now it barely occupies 2% of the GDP and maintains the self-sufficiency of staple grains. As a result, mostly all consumption of agricultural products is of foreign supplies, and this puts us in a posi-tion where our major option is to switch our policy from domestic to foreign. Unfortunately it is still a question if we have the quick ability to respond if such an event oc-curs. Depending on such changes, the following are a few summaries of the expected changes in the agricultural field: first, changes in the cultivation environment of the crops and in supply and demand; second, changes in the consumption pattern of the people; third, the vulner-ability due to the disasters following abnormal climate; and lastly, the weakening of agricultural policy respon-siveness. To begin with, we must take advantage of the relatively undersized policy instruments in order to effec-tively deal with the problem at hand. We must switch our


Prof. Jeongjae lee(seoul national university, Department of rural system engineering)

policy target from production support to industrial policy supervision and quality assurance. This is because policies that only depend on a mass import of crops (with only a small amount of domestic production) are inefficient; yet it is also a problem to even accommodate imported crops while disregarding their background nature (in specific, crops imported from countries with noticeably different hygienic procedures than Korea). Also, it is necessary to hygienically unify and closely observe expiry date systems for safe consumption; another option is to implement refrigerated transportation systems like those in de-veloped countries. Next, disaster preparation facilities should be greatly strengthened in rural areas given that they make up most of the country's land. All planning criteria that are not suitable for climate change should be reexamined and reinforced. It is especially necessary to remind ourselves that disaster preparation not only has an effect on human life and facilities, but also has associated effects as well (in reference to the tsunami in Japan and the followed disasters on nuclear power plants and social environment).

Lastly, we must break away from the idea of only using domestic means to overcome agri-environmental changes. Since climate change is not temporary nor is there a fixed limit to such a natural phenomena, we must form a diverse channel of international network in order to secure and keep the food clean for the dinner tables of our people. Changes in agriculture have occurred in the past; it will occur again in the future. The only climate changes we can predict are the ones that earth has already shown us, and the only way we can predict such phenomena is in alterna-tively switching the perspective of agricultural policy from a domestic problem into an international problem.

Switching the perspective of agricul-tural policy from a domestic problem into an international problem


In the Fourth Assesment Report of IPCC, the climate change impacts on biological diversity are pointed out. If worldwide average temperature rises to 1.5~2.5℃ (compared to 1980~1999), approximately 20~30% of the species will become endangered, and if the average tempera-ture rise goes beyond 3.5℃, it is predicted that a critical species extinction phenomenon (40~70%) will occur on a global scale. Increasing species extinction implies that biological diversity is being destructed in a global scale.

ecosystem


Climate Change Impacts on the Ecosystem and the Need for Adaptation

Currently, climate change is playing a part in the impacts on the lives and ecosystem of people in various regions. In several places of the earth, rising of sea level, floods, droughts, and extinction of coral foundations are being recognized, and natural disasters such as forest fires and hurricanes are occurring at a scale and frequency unprecedented. Climate change is not a prob-lem of the future generation, but is already a problem that we are actually 'witnessing' and 'experiencing'. Moreover, with this present rate, it will have a serious impact on the global environment, which sustains the lives of our next generation. In the Fourth Assesment Report of IPCC, which was announced in 2007, the most horrified fact has been announced regarding the phenomenon and future prediction of climate change. The report announced that the increasing global mean temperature will impact on the natural ecosystem seri-ously. This announcement is based on many objective data that the impacts of regional temperature rise on human society are gradually standing out.

In the future, average temperature rise due to global warming in the end of the 21st century (2090~2099) is predicted to rise to approximately 1.8℃ compared to the temperature from 1980 to 1999 when the preservation of natural environment and economic advancement co-exist on a global scale. In addition, average temperature is predicted to rise to approximately 4.0℃ when a high

economic growth is pursued with fossil energy backup as the central figure. This faces warns that our current life cycle and future decisions influence the fate of our future generation to a great extent. Also, it is reported that climate change can especially give a serious impact to people who are living in developing countries. Poor nations of Africa, suffering with serious droughts and desertification, and small-island nations are already vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, problems with poverty and healthcare due to climate change in those countries could become worse. Furthermore, the Fourth Assesment Report of IPCC points out climate change will effect on biological diversity. If worldwide average temperature rises to 1.5~2.5℃ (compared to 1980~1999), approximately 20~30% of the species will become endangered, and if the average temperature rise goes beyond 3.5℃, it is predicted that a critical species extinc-tion phenomenon (40~70%) will occur on a global scale.

The fact of increasing species extinction implies that biological diversity is being destructed in a global scale. Various species with diverse genotypes exist on earth, and they sustain relationships with each other by maintaining a delicate balance and live on the earth in various forms of ecosystems. And we, as human beings,

have formed a society as one 'species' by receiving various benefits from those ecosystems. Recently, the those benefits that human society receives from nature has been called 'ecosystem service,' and it emphasizes the importance of various services that the human society receives such as atmospheric circulation, climate modification, water purification, food supply, and cultural values.

'Biological diversity' is the making of such eco-system services that are mandatory to the survival of humans and the maintenance of society, and it is no exaggeration to say that the maintenance of the diversity of 'species,' which is an important factor in forming biological diversity, and the establishment of countermeasures for endangered species are the most important tasks for us now more than anything since the history of life on our planet began. In addition, climate change is currently giving unexpected changes to the ecosystem and is threatening biological diversity. Analyzing the change of species diversity caused by climate change and researching the countermeasures for such changes are urgent issues for us now and establishing a cooperation system with neighboring nations concerning these issues is also necessary.


Dr. Chanho Park(national Institute of Biological resources)

Climate change and our life, and the loss of biological diversity are all connected.


The Direction of Biological Diversity Policy Development for the adaptation of climate change

Generally, biological diversity in the Convention on Biological Diversity includes ecosystem diversity, interspecific diversity, and intraspecific diversity. However, recently landscape and cultural diversity are also included in the concept of biological diversity. This means that since biological diversity is related to not only nature but also interrelated to various factors of humanities and society, the concept of biological diversity should be implemented on a larger scale of both landscape and culture; it is because the damage and loss of landscape and culture change the habitats condition of organisms so far and, at the same time, dispossess habitats of organisms.

Korea's conservation policy for biological diversity has prioritized the conservation of protected areas with rare species. However, there is a movement worldwide that values both the conservation of protected areas with rare species and the continuity of biological community including normal species that influence the ecosystem within spaces in which humans are living. The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment that was announced in 2005 is one example. The goal of the assessment is to establish scientific foundation for the advancement of human welfare through the preserva-tion and sustainable utilization of the ecosystem by evaluating the impacts of change in the ecosystem on the welfare of humans. Ecosystem service is especially being emphasized here. Ecosystem service means the benefits that humans receive from the ecosystem and is aimed at ecosystems of all areas that are primarily

managed by humans from an excellent ecosystem and is divided into 'supply service,' 'control service,' 'cultural service,' and 'foundation service.' Therefore, in order for biological diversity to be maintained in accordance with this sort of worldwide flow, there is a need for reviewing a policy that deals not only with species that have high preservation worth but also with ecosystems in which normal species live in. Recently, biological diversity is being threatened not only by impacts from humans but also by climate change. According to the IPCC report, climate change is occurring at a faster rate than spe-cies/ecosystem adaptation and is known to seriously affect species that have slow rate of movement such as trees. Especially, it is known that plant species with a small, isolated population, those that cannot adjust well to sudden environmental changes, and those that have short seed dispersion and travel distances are even more vulnerable to climate change.

If climate change continues to proceed at this cur-rent rate, approximately 15~37% of species will become extinct on around the year of 2050. Especially, regional heavy rain and extreme weather events in weather give even more serious impacts on the ecosystem, which is undergoing stress from environmental pollution and development. Since there is a limitation to quantifying causality regarding the complex structure and climate change impacts that the ecosystem has, scientific results regarding the climate change impacts and vul-nerability of species are still very insufficient. However, in order to protect species that are vulnerable to climate

change, the implementation of adaptation policy in response to climate change is urgent.

Climate change adaptation or adaptability is being defined as the following: adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or ex-pected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts(IPCC, 2001). Biological diversity policy for the climate change adaptation can be established by two areas-species and habitats, which organisms live in. In the species aspect, the acts of restoration, multiplication, and discovering of species that are vulnerable to climate change are first needed. As explained earlier on, when dealing with species that cannot adapt well to climate change, stabilization measures are needed on a national level. Especially, vegetation of high mountains and subalpines are reported to be very vulnerable to climate change and, thus, mid- and long-term policies on these vegetations are required. In addition, management of species that are vulnerable to climate change should be implemented with expanding to normal species based on the concept of ecosystem service and not being only limited to species worth conserving. Also, preservation within the local site of biological resources is required. Since the vegetation belt can move due to climate change, where the species inhabit for conservation

within the habitats of each climatic zone and region should be used actively. In addition, the establishment of a tentatively named 'institute of biological resources' by each region with a purpose of off-site conservation of organisms vulnerable to climate change is necessary.

Next is regarding the policy for habitat environ-ments. Because habitats have been destroyed by human activities, the number of endangered species will expand in addition to future climate change. Thus, ecosystem reservations should be expanded and designated by preserving regions that have species highly worth conserving and continuously excavating excellent ecological regions. Also, the connectivity among protection areas should be ensured to restore the number of species become stronger. Those efforts will be of great help to the protection of species that are vulnerable to future climate. Besides. a policy that manages and marks "ecotone", which does not consist of protected species but several habitats as a hot spot, is very important to maintain species as well as genetic diversity.

Prof. Donggeun lee(seoul national university, Department of landscape architecture)


Maintain biodiversity of the Korean Peninsula through the protection and restoration of the ecosystem

Adaptation Policies for Ecosystem

Enhance monitoring of ecosystem/indicator species and conduct climate change vulnerability assessment- Expand the national long-term ecosystem research project for ecosystem/bio species, enhance monitoring of ocean/forestry ecosystems, and manage species by designating bio-indicator species of the climate change and monitoring them('10 100 species, '13 120 species→'16 150 species)

- Assess climate change impact and vulnerability by sectors (nature/forestry/agriculture/ocean), survey excellent eco regions, swamps and isolated islands and monitor them, and establish/provide relevant information DB

Preserve/restore the diversity of bio-species/genetic resources and secure the ecosystem linkage- Promote preservation and restoration measures for bio-species that are vulnerable to climate change, establish a bank of genetic resources and information networks by each region('13), and expand and manage ecosystem protection areas('15 15% of all land)

- Promote an ecosystem connection project by restoring damaged lands of three core ecological networks in Korean peninsula(The Baekdudaegan Mountains, Civilian Control Line, and Marine forest) and by installing an eco-corridor

- Restore damaged habitats for major endemic plants and enhance the management of wildlife eco-corridor

Promote measures to manage invasive species and to prevent unexpected biological hypertrephied - Monitor changes/expansion of foreign bio-species and analyze ecological environment of unexpected biological hypertrephied area

- Prevent expansion of the damages by establishing early-warning and disaster-prevention systems for unexpected organisms('15)

Establish governance for ecosystem management and enhance the promotion- Conduct pilot projects of biodiversity observation network('11), make guidelines for climate change ecosystem adaptation based on the vulnerability maps, and promote them('13)

- Form and operate a cooperative body among government departments to raise ecosystem management efficiency('11 2 regions→'13 6 regions→'16 9 regions)

ㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 20 ㅣ 21

Economic Analysis of Climate Change Impact in Korea : Agriculture


Agriculture reacts sensitively to climate change, and the im-pact of climate change on agriculture varies widely. Therefore, the changes in crop productivity in terms of food security should be addressed carefully. In Korea, the agricultural sector accounts for 3% of national GDP and 6% of the total popula-tion. Nevertheless, it remains critically important in the view of the national food security and public sentiments. (Korea Rural Economics Institute, 2007). Some domestic studies were conducted on the changes in the productivity of rice and other vegetables caused by climate change impacts. Economic studies due to such changes were carried out. These studies project the variations in the production of rice and barley which are the most important dietary crops in Korea in accordance with both the climate change impacts assessed by a crop growth model ORYZA 2000 and economics of such changes analyzed by the PMP(Positive Mathematical Programming). Finally, evaluations of the effect of some adaptation measures are included in this study.

To analyze the economic impact of climate change on food sector, an empirical PMP agricultural sector model was established, and a recursive analysis was conducted from 2010 to 2100. It was also divided into 18 units with each period designated as 5-years. Assuming endowments of land and labor, the A1B climate change scenario-based changes in rice productivity per unit area were considered as impacts of climate change, and results from crop simulation analyses were utilized. The result shows that the land area used for

farming was assumed to decline by 1% every 5-years to take into account declining trends in land use and increasing trends in land productivity. The available labor was assumed to increase by 15% every 5-years to reflect the past trend of labor productivity change, domestic feed grains are mostly imported, therefore, they are assumed to have minimal impact on rice, and the decreasing trend in rice prices are due to opening rice market and decreasing per capita rice consump-tion. The results reflect the forecasts reported by the Korea Rural Economic Institute. The annual losses of food sector due to climate change will be increased constantly from 2010 to 2100. However, differences on the increase rates are shown in each periods. Slow increase in the loss of the agricultural sectors is projected during 2010-2040, sharp increase in the loss is shown during 2041-2070. The increase rate of the loss is projected to slow down again during 2070-2100. During 2010-2100, the productions of the 43 regional items can be obtained through empirical analysis. In the results of the analysis, the productions of strawberry (greenhouse) and peppers (greenhouse) during 2015-2040, as well as the productions of melon (greenhouse) and garlic in 2015 shows a pattern which increases slightly and then declined, whereas the productions of the 39 other items (of the 43 regional items) shows another pattern which continues to

decrease. However, there was no difference in terms of the amounts of reduction by items. The reason why the reduc-tion in the per unit area productivity of rice due to climate change leads to increase in the cultivation area for rice is be-cause rice has a relatively high per-unit profit (price - cost). In other words, even though the per-unit area production of rice is reduced due to climate change, the producers of rice would forego other crops and expand their rice cultiva-tion with its relatively high profit margins because it brings more profits compared to other crop items. In contrast, when the productivity of rice is reduced, the changes in the productivities of other crop items are determined by the per-unit profit of each item.

Looking at the per-unit profit of the 43 items, the average is 509.7 (won/Kg) and it can be seen that rice, with its 851.01 won/kg, has a relatively high margins. Of all the subject crop items, the highest per-unit profit item was grape (2005.07 won) and the lowest per-unit profit item was white radish (52.79 won). The profit margins of the major crop items are as follows: apple (1245.95 won), strawberry (1231.12 won), potato (472.01 won), potato (296.3 won), beer barley (276.3 won), corn (139.07 won) and cabbage (68.86 won).

Finally, the comprehensive economic analyses of climate change impact on the food in Korea by periods showed to increase continuously. The costs due to climate change on food sectors in Korea are estimated as 82.4 billion won in 2020, 296.4 billion won in 2050, and 613.5 billion won in 2100.

Dr. kyomoon Shim national academy of agriculture science

Prof. Ohsang kwon seoul national university, College of agriculture and life science

Dr. Yeora chae Korea adaptation Center for Climate Change, KeI

ㅣㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 22 23Sectoral Adaptation Master Plan : Agriculture l Ecosystem l Climate Change Adaptation Research

This study was carried out to provide preliminary information for research about the impact of future climate changes on the wetland ecosystem. The information was collected by reviewing articles on the impact of climate change as well as by surveying flora and vegetation in an abandoned paddy field, de facto a type of wetland, and particularly in terraced fields.

The study reviewed published articles and books to collect information on the impact of climate change on plants in the wetland ecosystem and also to investigate vegetation in both quadrat areas and each terrace of the abandoned paddy field to reflect if there is any impact on wetland plants or any vis-ible vegetation pattern due to potential climatic changes. The reason that the wetland ecosystem was selected was because of comparatively its sensitive response to climate change compared to other ecosystems. Likewise, abandoned paddy fields were selected because they have among the most sensitive response to climate compared to other wetlands. We focused on vegeta-tion because wetland plants are known to react more strongly to changes in the environment than other groups and also because they are the primary source of ecological chain responses which provide necessary prey and habitats to other living creatures.

A wetland is a place that is constantly or transiently covered by fresh water or brackish water or salt water naturally or unnaturally. Wetlands are categorized as inland wetlands, brackish wetlands, shoreline wetlands, and man-made wetlands. The abandoned paddy field wetland, if formed naturally, is an inland marsh which is subject to fresh water and mostly located in mountain-ous terraced areas, in which diverse animals (mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles, insects, aquatic animals) live without human interference so that indigenous and endangered species that need to be protected can be found frequently.

The potential impact of climate on wetlands gener-ally follows, 1) lowering of water level and dryness, 2) changes in the hydrological cycle (wet and dry seasons), 3) increments of carbon dioxide, 4) rising sea water levels and salinity, 5) changes in temperature, 6) climate change according to altitude, 7) climate coupled with nutrition, 8) climate combined with human activity. Because the flora living in an abandoned paddy field is mostly dependent on rain and/or underground water, both precipitation and temperature are important cli-mate factors affecting hydrological systems and thereby succession of vegetation in the wetland. Yearly patterns of both precipitation and temperature are similar, but these are generally high during July through September in Korea.

In order to find any relationship between climate factors and vegetation composition in an abandoned paddy field, vegetation distribution, and plant composi-tion were investigated in five survey areas selected in different latitudes of different provinces. The current vegetations and habitat conditions may reflect climate impacts in the past. However, any particular relation-ship could not be discovered probably due to the short study period and insufficient study areas. There may not be distinct differences in the vegetation distribution because the climate zone in South Korea shows little differences. In fact there was not much difference in the pattern of monthly average precipitation and tempera-ture for 10 years in five weather stations. But the range of fluctuation of yearly precipitation was wider in the southern provinces than the northern provinces, and winter temperature did not go down below zero in the south, but did in the north. Further research will be re-quired to resolve questions if any relationship is present between the pattern of climate and the distribution of vegetation in the wetland.

A hydrological system seemed to be the most important factor to affect mostly the distribution and succession of vegetation in abandoned paddy fields. The time to form the wetland may not be a factor. In other words the species and the distribution of wetland plants were divergent according to the supply system of water, the preservation period of water, and the depth of water, etc. Submerged or floating-leaves or floating plants lived in regions where water was continuously supplied all year.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Ecosystem: The Case of Wetland Plants

Dr. Younghan kwon Korea adaptation Center for Climate Change, KeI

ㅣ kaccc newsletter · autumn 2012 24

http://kaccc.kei.re.kr/eng

[Climate Change Adaptation Newsletter] AdApTATioN is published quarterly and shares important information about climate change adaptation. You can also acquire a variety of information about climate change adaptation through the homepage of Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change.


K O R E A A D A P T A T I O N C E N T E R F O R C L I M A T E C H A N G E

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEM


adaptationK o r e a a d a p t a t i o n c e n t e r f o r c l i m a t e c h a n g e

AdAptAtion StrAtegieS forClimAte ChAnge in KoreA

KaCCC nEWSLEttER SpRinG 2012


Emergent plants were found in the region where water was periodically supplied. Other wetland-preferred plants lived in regions where water was occasionally supplied. Upland or terrestrial plants occupied the boundary of the abandoned paddy field. It may not be easy to predict for certain how the climate will change in the future. If yearly precipitation decreases and dryness due to global warming continues, it will be possible that the wetland ecosystem will be changed to a terrestrial ecosystem. According to the result, the number of wetlands will decrease, causing the pattern of vegetation to change and causing diverse biotic creatures and species to disappear. Certain measures are necessary to cope with such changes.

It is the dominant opinion that climate change has been caused by human activities. The most significant potential impact on the vegetation of wetlands is replacement by inland species according to dryness of the habitat, which is faster than natural processes. Because this impact is not a natural process, the spread of the impact to the ecosystem will be fast and profound. Especially in protected areas, a place for habitat and a corridor for rare and endangered species must be managed and maintained. Protection measures are needed to prepare hydrological systems against abrupt climate change. The best method is to maintain the current status of wetlands without damage from con-struction and development. The reason is that the life-cycle of most plants and animals interrelate like the teeth of a gear, and are also sensitive to alteration of the climate and environment, causing a series of effects to spread and grow compared to natural processes. Although this study is a preliminary one-year work, detailed information will be obtained through further research. The results and information from continuous studies will be put to practical use for policy to preserve the wetland ecosystem and repair biodiversity altered by climate change and human impact.

Sectoral Adaptation Master Plan & Supportive Activities … · 2017-04-06 · Change Adaptation...

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