Sector Level Policies:Research on Designing Smart Cities towards Low Carbon Society

Shuichi AshinaManager of International Coordination Office / Senior Researcher

National Institute for Environmental Studies

E-mail: ashina.shuichi@nies.go.jp

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ http://www.nies.go.jp/

The presentation includes research outcomes from The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ERTDF, 2-1402, 2-1404, 2-1702 and 2-1711), the “Project to Advance MRV and Related Techniques in Indonesia for the Promotion of a Joint Credit Mechanism (from FY2014-2017)”, the “Project to Promote CO2 Technology Assessment (from FY2014-2017)” of Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and Japan and the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) by JST/JICA (the Japan Science and Technology Agency and the Japan International Cooperation Agency).

The Training Programme on Climate Change for Bhutanese Policy MakersFebruary 7, 2018 at Climate Change Research Hall, NIES, Tsukuba

Key Points of the Paris Agreements• Long-term goal

• Keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing actions to stay under 1.5 degrees.

• Reaching net zero GHG emissions in the second half of the century.

• Emissions targets• Setting national targets for reducing GHG emissions every five years.

• Tracking progress towards the long-term goal through a robust transparency and accountability system.

• Loss and Damages• Recognizing the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss

and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change.

2018/02/07 2

What we should do: Taking the Actions for LCS ASAP!

However…

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• All we know Taking Action is Important!

Why We need to Reduce GHGs!

• Less we know How We Can Reduce GHGs?

What Action is Suite for Us?

Who’s Actions are Crucial for?

Where is a Source of GHGs?

How Much does it Cost?

Science and Research could deliver Solutions and Roadmaps toward Low Carbon Society

1990

19941997

2001

20042006

20072008

20102009

AIM ERI(China), IIM(India), MoE(Indonesia) , Seoul U (Korea)

Japan LCS Project(FY2004-FY2008)

Japan-UK Joint Project(FY2006-FY2007)

Asia LCS Project (FY2009-FY2015)

JST/JICA SATREPS Project(FY2011-FY2015)

LCS-RNet (FY2009-)

AIT

Malaysia

COP3

Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam

2050Low Carbon Society

2011

Training workshop at COP8, India

AIM project started

Brief History of Low Carbon Society Study in AIM

2018/02/07 4

Green buildingsSelf-sustained city

Decentralized services

Eco awarenessEffective communication

Dematerialization

Next generation vehiclesEfficient transportation system

Advanced logistics

19

90

20

00

20

20

20

50

20

10

BaU scenario

Interventionscenario

EE improvement

New energy

Energy saving

Structure change

Life-stylechange

Tech. innovation

Urban structure IT-society

Techno-Socio Innovation Study

GHG reduction target（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target

Long-termScenario

DevelopmentStudy

Develop socio-economic scenario, evaluate counter-measures using econ-techno models G

HG

em

issi

on

Middle-termTarget year

Loge-termTarget year

Transportationsystem

- 1

135

Valid

Equity

Suitable

Effective

ReductionTarget study

Advisory board：advice to project

60 Researchers

Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy

[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

Research Project on Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

2018/02/07 5

Depicting Socio-economic Visions in 2050:Two different but likely future societies

Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthrough

Centralized production

/recycle

Self-sufficient

Produce locally, consume

locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.

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70

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24

10

13

38

97

28

17

41

36

CCS

Carbon CaptureStorage

Change of activity

19

90

CO

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mis

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20

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CO

2 E

mis

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20

50

CO

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Change of activity

Imp

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Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction of service demand

Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,

Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service

・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such aselectric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 for Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society

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GHGemissionspercapita

Withh

ighdam

age

onEco

nomyan

d

Natu

ralSystem

Developed

Developing

DevelopmentofAsiaLCSScenarios 　(1)Depic ngnarra vescenariosforLCS 　(2)Quan fyingfutureLCSvisions 　(3)Developingrobustroadmapsbybackcas ng

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

SustainabledevelopmentthroughLCS Futuretrendsonsocio-economiccondi ons,energy,resources,regionaldiversity,culture,lifestyle,etc.

Ins tu onaldesignforint’lcoopera on Ins tu onaldesignforinterna onalcoopera on,regionalregime,etc.

Low-CarbonSociety

LCTransporta on • Low-CarbonCitywithLCtransportsystem

• Granddesignforfuturetransport

system Backcas ng

DiversityofAsia

• EncouraginginframingforLCpolicyineachAsiancountries

• Assistanceforinterna onalnego a onswithscien ficbasis

• Approachesforint’lLCSac vityframework • NetworkingamongLCSresearchinAsia

Sustainableresourcemanagement

• Construc ngmaterialaccounts

• Low-Carboniza on

throughimprovementresourceproduc vityandmaterialrecycle

Research Project on Asia Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

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• The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the 2005 level and emissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference scenario.

• It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 69% by introducing ten actions and Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference scenario in 2050.

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2e/

year

)

Action 1: Urban Transport

Action 2: Interregional Transport

Action 3: Resources & Materials

Action 4: Buildings

Action 5: Biomass

Action 6: Energy System

Action 7: Agriculture and Livestock

Action 8: Forest & Landuse

Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other

than agriculture and livestock)

GHG emissions in Asia (LCS)

Global GHG emissions (LCS)

Global GHG emissions (Reference)

There is potential to reduce GHG emissions by 69% compared to the reference case in Asia

9

GHG emissions in Reference and LCS scenarios

2018/02/07

Our Next Challenge:How to Mobilize People and Society?

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• Transition to the LCS needs to gain the cooperation of a wide range of stakeholders, including policy makers, international aid agencies, private companies, local communities and NGOs.

• However, in many cases, national solutions are solutions for somebody that one is not.

• For getting their concern, science and research are expected to establish methodologies and deliver actions and roadmaps effective for their daily lives and businesses – FOR THE CITY!

Methodology for Designing Regional/City LCS Scenarios:New Paradigm should be proposed

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• Region/Subnational is NOT miniature version of national situation.

• Regional characteristics should be considered for designing regional/city low carbon society scenarios.

Source: http://energy-indonesia.com/03dge/Soeripno%20Martosaputro.pdf

Example: Wind situation differs island and island, and area by area.

AIM’s Approach: Multi Scale Scenario AnalysisThree different scales but interactive approaches are employed in Low Carbon Society Scenario Study in AIM

Global and Pan-Asian scale approach

National scale approach

Local scale approach De

taile

d a

nd

sh

ort

er-

term

an

aly

sis

Ag

gre

ga

ted a

nd lo

ng

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rm

an

aly

sis

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Model World

National AIM Models: Integration of Energy-Economy-Environment

Impact/Adaptation Model

Emission Model

【Country】

【Global】

【Enduse model】

【Economic model】

【Account model】

【sequentialdynamics】

【dynamicoptimization】

【Local/City】

Agriculture

Water

Human health

Simple Climate Model

Other Models

future society

Population Transportation Residential

GHG emissions

temperature

【Global】 【National/Local】

feedback

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Burden share Stock-flow

mid-term target

IPCC/WG3

IPCC/WG2

IPCC/integrated scenario

carbon tax

long-term vision

Accountingadaptation

low carbon scenario

Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World

2018/02/07 13

New Modeling Approach: Multi-layered Regional Modeling System

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TargetSpa

alScale

Na onal

Region

Province

Municipality

District

Na onalScaleAnalysisModels Electricity

Heat Enduse

Technology Industry

Subna onalScaleAnalysisModels Electricity

Heat Enduse

Technology Industry

LocalScaleAnalysisModels Electricity

Heat Enduse

Technology Industry

StrategicUrbanDesignModels RES IND COM ENE

DistrictDesignModels RES IND COM TRP Infra

LowCarbonAreaDesignModels

EnergySupply

MaterialRecycling

RenewablePoten al

ForestEco-system

LowCarbonAc onDatabase

Buildings Industry

Agriculture

Renewable Lifestyle

Technology

Macro-scaleSystemDesignModels

Spa al/GIS-basedModels DetailedD

esign

Outlin

eDesign

Aiming Science to Action: Collaborative Scenario Development with Policymakers

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

Core research members

Application and development to actual LCS processes

Development and maintenance of study tools/models

Each country’s domestic/ local research institute

Policy makers

Central/regional government

administration Development

Agencies

NGOs

Collaboration for LCS scenario development and building roadmaps

Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world

India

China

Japan

Malaysia

Vietnam

Thailand

Indonesia

Korea

2018/02/07 15

Activities on National LCS studies

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Activities on City-scale LCS Studies

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Recent Progress: “Bhutan Low-Carbon Society Scenario Study 2050”

Research Team: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University (KU), Okayama University (OU), NationalInstitute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

Joint Coordinating Committee: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), Federal Department of Townand Country Planning (JPBD), Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (MGTC)

Sponsorship: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) , Japan Science and Technology (JST)

Period: 2011 - 2016

Research Output:i. Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is appropriate for Malaysia is developed.

ii. LCS scenarios are created and utilised for policy development in IM.

iii. Co-benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling-based society is quantified in IM

iv. Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and Asiancountries is consolidated, and a network for LCS in Asia is established

Introduction: Overview of the ProjectDevelopment of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions

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BackgroundIskandar Malaysia: Key Challenges

Size: 2,216.3 km²

Population: 1.3 mil. (2005) I 3.0 mil. (2025)

GDP: 35.7 bil. RM (2005) I 141.4 bil. RM (2025)

IssuesRapid urbanization and industrializationHigher energy demand and CO2 emission Decouple economic growth and emission on fossil fuel

CO2 Reduction target in Malaysia:

Voluntary 40% reduction of CO2

emission intensity by 2020

Blueprint – 3 main thrusts –Green economy, community and environment.=12 actions

Joint collaboration work of UTM, KU, NIES under SATREPS program

2018/02/07 19

Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar MalaysiaGreen Economy, Green Community and Green Environment

Green Economy 59%

Green Community21%

Green Environment20% Green Economy

1 Integrated Green Transportation

2 Green Industry

3 Low Carbon Urban Governance

4 Green Building and Construction

5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy

Green Community

6 Low Carbon Lifestyle

7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building

Green Environment

8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design

9 Smart Urban Growth

10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources

11 Sustainable Waste Management

12 Clean Air Environment

2018/02/07 20

Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar Malaysia12 Actions Towards Low Carbon Future

Mitigation Options CO2

Reduction

%

Green Economy 7,401 59%

Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation 1,916 15%

Action 2 Green Industry 1,085 9%

Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance* - -

Action 4 Green Building and Construction 1,338 11%

Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy 3,061 24%

Green Community 2,557 21%

Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle 2,557 21%

Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building* - -

Green Environment 2,510 20%

Action 8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design 264 2%

Action 9 Smart Urban Growth 1,214 10%

Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources 620 5%

Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management 412 3%

Action 12 Clean Air Environment* - -

Total 12,467* 100%

* Action 3, 7 and 12 does not have direct emission reduction, but their effect is included in other Actions.

2018/02/07 21

Work Breakdown Structure of 12 LCS Actions

Action

Sub-actions

Measures

Programs

1.0 Key Policy Actions needed to achieve the final goal of the project (targeted 50% cut in carbon emission intensity by 2025 based on 2005 levels)

1.1 Sub-actions needed to produce policy outcomes that jointly lead to the achievement of a key Policy Action

1.1.1 Measures that are more detailed breakdown and interpretation of Sub-actions into strategies with a clearer implementation dimension

1.1.1.1 Programs – Specific activities, deliverables, from which resource requirements, budget,implementation agencies and duration may be identified/estimated

Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian RegionsLCS Actions for IM – Work Breakdown Structure

2018/02/07 22

Action 1: Integrated Green Transportation

1.1Integrated Public Transportation

1.2Improving JB-

Singapore, JB-KL Connectivity

1.3Diffusion of Low

Carbon Passenger Vehicles

1.4Enhancing Traffic Flow Conditions &

Performance

1.5Green

Transportation in Rural Areas

1.6GreenFreight

Transportation

1.1.1Public transport

system improvement

1.1.2Introducing rail-& water-based

public transport

1.1.3Efficient & seamless intermodal transfer

(interchange) facilities

1.2.1Intercity high-speed

rail transit (HSRT)

1.3.1Promote the use of low carbon vehicles

1.4.1Transportation

Demand Management (TDM)

1.5.1Improve public

transport services & use in rural areas

1.6.1Modal shift to greener freight

transport modes

1.6.2Promote

green/hybrid freight transport

1. Route network expansion planning (improve network coverage and connectivity)

2.Increase bus frequency, improve punctuality and reliability

3. Real time arrival information

4. Public transport reimaging

5. Flat rate tickets and central area free shuttle services

6. Web based journey planner

1. Route network planning

2. Connectivity & integration with existing public transport modes

1. Integrated ticketing system (across all platforms)

2. Public transport interchanges as destinations & urban activity nodes

3. Park and ride facilities in suburban transit nodes

1. Integrate Singapore MRT (SMRT) system with Iskandar Malaysia Light Rail Transit (IMLRT) & bus systems

2. JB Sentral as HSRT-SMRT-IMLRT hub

1. Government agencies to use hybrid vehicles/ electric vehicles

2. Tax reduction for hybrid vehicle purchase

3. Gradual phasing out of diesel engine buses

4. Subsidy for purchase of hybrid buses

1. Intelligent Transportation System (ITS)

2. Enhancing traffic signal performance

3. Enhance the use of Variable Message Sign (VMS)

4. Tidal flow and contra-flow along primary radial routes

5. Increase parking charges

1. Provide hybrid bus services from rural areas to urban areas

2. Provide school bus services for students in rural areas

3. Subsidise rural area hybrid bus services

1. Modal shift from road-based to rail-based freight transport

2. Modal shift to ship-freight transport

1. Tax incentives for freight operators in acquisition of hybrid freight vehicles

Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian RegionsLCS Actions for IM – WBS by Action

2018/02/07 23

Bridging Research and Policy in Iskandar Malaysia

Identifying Low Carbonizing Potential in IM

PM approved Dozen Action as official program in IM

Proposal of 10 Actions by IRDA

Roadmap towards Low Carbon IM

Continuous Discussion with Stakeholdersincluding researcher, policymaker, business, NGOs

Approval by PM(Dec 2012)

COP19 (Nov 2013)

COP17 (Dec 2011)

March 2014Approvals and Implementation Committee (AIC) in IRDA endorsed the BP and Roadmap as formal government plan

2018/02/07 24

Local, National, and International Actions are Needed for Achieving SDGs

2018/02/07 25

For example, energy access (Goal 7) needs to take actions in

rural area…

2018/02/07 26

Electricity access in 2014 - Regional aggregates

Region

Population without

electricity

millions

Electrification

rate

%

Urban

electrification

rate

%

Rural

electrification

rate

%

Developing countries 1,185 79% 92% 67%

Africa 634 45% 71% 28%

North Africa 1 99% 100% 99%

Sub-Saharan Africa 632 35% 63% 19%

Developing Asia 512 86% 96% 79%

China 0 100% 100% 100%

India 244 81% 96% 74%

Latin America 22 95% 98% 85%

Middle East 18 92% 98% 78%

Transition economies & OECD 1 100% 100% 100%

WORLD 1,186 84% 95% 71%

SOURCE: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2016

AND for Developed countries

2018/02/07 27

• Goal 7 of SDGs aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable,

sustainable and modern energy for all.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015

PrimaryEnergyConsu

mption[M

toe]

RenewableandOthers Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Hydro TraditionalBiomass

Meiji |Taisho| Showa | Heisei Period:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1880 1900 1920

Oil Crisis

3.11

OIL

COAL

GAS

NUC

• Japan depends on almost modern energies.• These are reliable and sustainable (or clean) ?• Developed countries also need to innovative city design.

City is Spatially Homogeneous?

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Distribution of Population in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan

Fukushima Prefecture

Mountains Area

Maritime Area

Commercial Center Area

Changing City Structure will be Expected

both Developing and Developed Countries

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Concentration (1)Relocation to Urban Area

Concentration (2)Relocation to City Core

Relocation

Urban

Area

Status QuoCity keeps Everything as is.

Urban

Area

Urban

Area

City Core

RelocationRelocation

Relocation

Relocation

• Cities will transform at any one time.

• Some city will be centralized, and others will be decentralized.

• Policy and Business (including transportation authority) lead such

transformation.

Target City: Koriyama in Fukushima

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Tsukuba Headquarters

Fukushima Branch

(2016.4-)

Lake Biwa Branch Office (2017.4-)

Koriyama City

We are Here!

Analytical Flow of Developed Model

• The model calculate energy

service demand and energy

supplied based on Land-use

and urban structure.

• 5-m DEM is used for energy

service calculation.

• Energy supplied from

renewables and CHPs are

determined energy demand-

supply balance in the

city/area.

2018/02/07 31

Land-use and Urban Structure

(Population etc, 1 km x 1 km (5-m DEM))

Evaluation of Energy Service Demand

Analysis of Low Carbon Measure

in Demand-side

Calculation of Energy Service Needed

Evaluation of Renewable Energy Supplied

Analysis of CHP Location and Energy (Heat

and Electricity) Supplied

Energ

y D

em

and

Energ

y

Sup

ply

Detailed Structure of Developed Model

2018/02/07 32

Solar and Wind Potentials

Energy Demand Analysis Energy Resource Analysis

Evaluation of Solar and Wind

Potential in consideration of

Climate Change

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

110%太陽光発電

現在値

MIROC5_RCP8.5_2060

MRI_RCP8.5_2060

Spatial Distribution of Energy

Demand

Evaluation of Current and Future

Energy Demands by Mesh.

(c) Low Carbon Energy System Design Model for Region and Urban Area (Regional AIM/Enduse)

Design on Regional/Urban Area Energy System based on

Spatial Distribution of Energy Demands and Resources, and

Evaluation of Impacts on Low Carbon (CO2 Reduction) by

Implementing the Designed System.

Design on Biomass

Distribution SystemIndustrial SymbiosisIndustrial Demand and Design

Sysmtem based on idea of

Industrial Symbiosis

Comprehensive Design on Regional Energy System

Design System for Biomass

Distribution and Evaluation

of Supply Potential

冷房

暖房

給湯

動力・照明

冷房

暖房

給湯

動力・照明

年間総需要量41.69 TJ

業務

住宅

(万tCO2)

11%

14%

54%

1%

20%

削減量内訳：川崎

CEMS(需給調整)

CEMS(需要抑制)

未利用熱利用

熱電併給

対策後排出量

排出量：25,631 (tCO2)

削減量：20,533 (tCO2)

(削減率 80%)

36%

14%

6%

44%

削減量内訳：西荻窪

CEMS(需給調整)

CEMS(需要抑制)

未利用熱利用

熱電併給

対策後排出量

排出量：28,907 (tCO2)

削減量：16,194 (tCO2)

(削減率 56%)

4%

14%

11%

71%

削減量内訳：東京

CEMS(需給調整)

CEMS(需要抑制)

未利用熱利用

熱電併給

対策後排出量

排出量：37,816 (tCO2)

削減量：10,832 (tCO2)

(削減率 29%)

10%

14%

68%

7%

削減量内訳：千葉中央

CEMS(需給調整)

CEMS(需要抑制)

未利用熱利用

熱電併給

対策後排出量

排出量：8,651 (tCO2)

削減量：8,018 (tCO2)

(削減率 93%)

未利用熱の大きい臨海地域： PVポテンシャルの大きい住宅隣接地域：

電力需要が大きく未利用熱源と近接しない都心部密集地域： 未利用熱と住宅PVの活用により大きな削減率が見込める地域：

駅名は必要に応じて削除

駅名は必要に応じて削除 駅名は必要に応じて削除

駅名は必要に応じて削除

Simulation Tool for Energy Demand Management

Simulation Tool for Impacts of Energy

Management System on Demand

Reduction

Simulation of Energy Management

5

4

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30分間隔の需給計画値

ピークカット ピークシフト

電力

電力 割安な時間帯

にシフト節電

Design on Energy Infrastructure

Locational Planning on Energy Infrastructure

Design on Locational Planning

on Energy Infrastructure based

on Spatial Distribution of

Energy Demands and

Resources.

Creating City Simulation Model from Real World

2018/02/07 33

①②

③

④ ⑤

⑥

⑦ ⑧

⑨

⑩

⑪ ⑫⑬

【評価対象地区】

Urban Strategy by the Government Modeled Urban Centers and Population

Distribution

Results in Koriyama: Energy Service Demands

• Energy service demand distributes almost in accordance with

urban area.

• High energy service demands for detached house can be

observed suburbs, in contrast, that for multifamily buildings and

commercial buildings are in city centers.

2018/02/07 34

Detached House Multifamily Buildings Commercial Buildings

Central

Station

Results in Koriyama: Feasibility of CHPs

• CHP business could be successful in the area with 7,000

person/km2 and 7,000 employees/km2.

• Only three (3) center cores can be installed CHP system.

• Center 7 and 8: Surrounding Area of City Hall, Hospitals and

Shopping Centers

• Center 9: Surrounding Area of Central Station

2018/02/07 35

Amount of Energy Supplied by CHPs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

コジェネによる熱＋電力供給量

(TJ)

拠点番号

2010

2030

2050

Numeric Number of Urban Centers

Energ

y S

upplie

d b

y C

HPs

(Ele

ctrici

ty +

Heat) (

TJ)

Results in Koriyama: Reduction of CO2 Emissions

• Installation of PV system and CHPs leads to the reduction of

CO2 emissions in Center 7 & 8 (near City Hall) and Center 9

(near Central Station).

• Energy efficient appliances and renewables are main sources of

CO2 reduction in suburb area.

2018/02/07 36

Amount of CO2 reduction by Centers

2030 2050CO2削減量[tCO2]CO2 Reduction

[tCO2]

Results in Koriyama: Contribution by Measures

• Total amount of CO2 reduction in 2050 is 270 ktCO2.

• 22.7% of total CO2 emissions in 2007 (1,187 ktCO2)

• CO2 reduction comes from 24% of energy efficient technologies,

38% of PV and 38% of CHPs.

2018/02/07 37

CO2 Reduction by Measures

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2010 2030 2050

CO

2削減量

[万tC

O2

]

拠点集約化

再エネ

単体技術

単体技術

集約効果（需要削減、事業導入）

拠点集約化シナリオ

BAU（ベースライン）

単体技術

再エネ(PV)

単体技術＋再エネ

Energy Efficient Technology

Energy Efficient Technology

+Renewables

Energy Efficient Technology

+Renewables+CHPs

No CO2 Reduction Measures

(Baseline)

CO

2Red

uct

ion [1

0 k

tCO

2]

Current Challenge(1) : Holistic Design System for Smart City

2018/02/07 38

• Three different but mutually interrelated designing methodology should be developed.

3. Project Design

2. Spatial Design

Land use zoning

/network design

1. Macro Design of the city・ Population, industries

・ Core developments

・ Energy locality

Alternative future

vision

▪ Zoning and regulation

▪ District planning

▪ HEMS/BEMS/CEMS

▪ Energy grid design

Core projects for

Smart City

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

億円

試算の結果例 (域内総生産)

なりゆきシナリオ

LNG立地シナリオ

産業振興シナリオ

環境産業共生シナリオ

▪ Land use distribution

patterns

▪ Local energy network

▪ Location of core

developments

温浴施設

植物工場

ガスパイプライン

戸建て住宅 戸建て住宅

LN G基地

複合商業施設

集合住宅(寮)

CO 2供給

新地町役場Ｄ Ｒ イベント参加状況の確認

ｴﾈﾙｷﾞー ｾﾝﾀｰ

発電機蓄熱装置

CEM S※

Vision of the City

Area Design

National Institute forEnvironmental Studies

strives to contribute to society through

Networking, Integrating,Evolving and Synthesizing

environment research based on a firm understanding of the interaction between nature, society, and life on our planet.

2018/02/07 39

Thank You for Your Kind Attention!