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Sector Insights & Trends

Looking Ahead

“The Sectors Team in Bank of Ireland is a team of sector specialists, recruited directly from industry, who provide expert insights on cycles, trends and overall outlook based on their extensive industry experience.”

Pierce Butler Head of Sectors

Email: [email protected]: 087 2811 717Phone: 076 6231 734

The Sectors Team

Brían EvansHead of Manufacturing


Hilary CoatesHead of Health Sector


Stephen Healy Head of Motor

Email: [email protected] Mobile: 085 2898 600

Paul SwiftHead of Technology

Email: [email protected]: 087 251 6681

Owen CliffordHead of Retail Convenience

E-mail: [email protected]: 087 9079 002

Gerardo Larios RizoHead of Hospitality

Email: [email protected]: 087 7951 253

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Table of Contents

Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Hotels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Pubs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Agri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Motor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Retail Convenience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Pharmacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

2

Continued growth

Investec Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Ireland report shows that the sector has had over 5 and a half years of consecutive growth.

Brexit plans and Sterling exchange rate

With Brexit implementation scheduled for March 2019 and a possible transition phase up to December 2020, manufacturers are establishing a deeper understanding of their exposure and are increasingly putting Brexit action plans in place.

Nationwide skills gaps highlighted

Research commissioned by Bank of Ireland and HRM (conducted by Red C), found that hiring a skilled workforce is a key challenge for 4 out of 10 Irish Manufacturing SMEs and highlighted significant nationwide skills gaps. Marketing is the most significant skills gap for almost 2 in 5 (39%) manufacturers nationwide, followed closely by sales (35%) and production (33%). Larger SMEs are reporting particularly high skills gaps in technical areas such as R&D (47%), engineering (50%) and quality (42%).

Investment in factory premises

In H1 2018 we saw a high level of factory acquisitions, factory extensions and factory fit-outs while in H2 2018 working capital

investments increased which we believe relates to companies growing their raw materials and finished goods inventories as we get closer to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Fewer industrial rental properties available

According to CBRE, rental costs for Dublin prime industrial properties have risen by 6.5% in 2018 to €106 p/sqm while “demand for industrial and logistics buildings in provincial locations is likely to remain muted for the foreseeable future”.

Ireland 12th in world competitiveness rankings

Ireland ranks in 12th place in the IMD world competitiveness rankings out of 63 countries, Irelands’ rank dropped from 6th place the previous year. Our National Competitiveness Council stated that global economic uncertainty, particularly in trade policy and international tax policy developments pose a threat to growth and the reliance of the economy on a small number of exporting companies and export markets and a narrow range of exported products and services is a significant concern. Ireland ranked 1st for flexibility and adaptability of its workforce.

ManufacturingKPIs & Trends

3

Continued positive growth with Brexit and Trade Tension challenges

The outcome of the Brexit process combined with the possibility of increased international trade tensions could have significant implications for the sector’s performance in 2019. This will present opportunities to displace UK products in our home market as well as challenges supplying into UK.

Managing currency and commodity price volatility

With Brexit negotiations ongoing and new US Trade Tariff policies, manufacturers will need to anticipate and manage exchange rate impacts related to currency and commodity price volatility.

Expected growth in demand for business funding

We expect continued growth in manufacturing output requiring capex and working capital to fund the business and we anticipate a moderated level of funding of factory expansion, new factory construction and leasing of industrial and logistics premises.

Managing the effects of potential trade wars

While there will be continued strong growth in mechanical engineering, construction materials, plastics, metal fabrication, materials handling and precision engineering, it is expected that some SMEs will need to manage the impact of global trade tensions on input materials prices and tariffs on some US bound products.

Attraction and retention of staff a growing concern

Bank of Ireland research involving 252 Irish manufacturing SME companies, shows that 37% of our manufacturing SME’s have a concern around ability to attract new staff.

ManufacturingSector Outlook

Implications of Brexit on trade with UK

With 43% of indigenous exports going to the UK many Irish manufacturing firms will be monitoring the Brexit negotiations and will develop new markets outside of the UK.

43% of exports going to the UK

#brexit

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At the end of Q3 2018 the average hourly rate in the manufacturing sector was €22.63 up 1.2% on Q3 2017 and an 8.3% increase over the past 5 years

€22.63 per hour

Ireland’s indigenous exports (including food at €4.4bn) go to UK annually€21billion

43%

ManufacturingKPIs & Trends

Staff retention as a key issue by SME size

37%MEDIUM

20%

SMALL

12%

MICRO

5

Skills Gap: 22%Retention: 16%Training: 54%Operational HR: 12%Future Challenges: Acquisition of New Staff 29%

Marketing – noted to be a significant gap, arising in 2 out of every 5 SME’s

Micro

Dublin

Rest of Leinster

Connacht/Ulster

Munster

Small Medium

Region Reporting

Highest Gap:Connacht/Ulster

Sales – large gap is reported in sales talent with a national average of 35%

Production – a third of all organisations report a skill gap in production talent




Challenges as reported by Region Skills Gaps amongst SMEs

41%

36%

32%

37%

32%

37%

26%

37%

29%

45%

40%

43%

ManufacturingSector Outlook

6

Strong RevPAR growth

Improved performance being led by average rate rather than occupancy. Cork city delivered year on year double digit RevPAR growth during 2018.

RevPAR growth is expected to soften in 2019 due to the recent increase to the hospitality VAT rate.

Stable food and beverage profit margins

Despite growth in turnover, food and beverage profit margins have remained stable. Pressure from competing hotels as well as other food and beverage premises has kept price increases at bay.

Payroll to sales ratio still improving

Payroll to sales ratio continues to improve driven by turnover growth running ahead of wage increases.

Current wages to sales ratio average 30% - 34%

Sales to EBITDA Ratio

Current EBITDA to sales ratio average 10% – 45%HotelsKPIs & Trends

Current beverage profit margin average 63-68%

Current food profit margin average 65-70%

Fit out costs 3 star from €13k to €21k per bedroom (reference only)

Fit out costs 4 star from €21k to €28k per bedroom (reference only)

Development/Refurbishment/Extensions

Hotel development sites and building costs continue to experience significant increases. The rising costs could ultimately delay the development of some of the smaller hotel projects in Dublin city. Cork city hotel development pipeline continues to rise (70% +increase in bedroom stock).

7

Branding

Brands continue to penetrate the Irish market. Moxy, Motel One, Hyatt, and Hard Rock Café are among the brands planning hotel openings in the not so distant future.

Growing numbers of overseas visitors

Overseas visitor numbers expected to grow further thanks to increased sea and

air access capacity to multiple destinations (capacity up 5% year

on year for 2019).

Hotel investment projects

Refurbishments and extensions are likely to continue driven by strong sector cash flows despite the declining industry sentiment. Extensions and developments gaining momentum outside of Dublin.

Focus on ‘in room’ and ‘property management’ technology

Hotel operators are increasingly considering advantages of investing in technological upgrades as part of their asset investment strategy. CRMs have become more and more prevalent in Irish Hotels as properties look to improve on customer satisfaction.

HotelsSector Outlook

8

PubsKPIs & Trends

Current beverage profit margin average is now

65-70%

Current food profit margin average is now

60-65%

Current wages to sales profit margin average is now

25-30%

Current EBITDA to sales profit margin average is now

5-25%

Marginal improvement in beverage profit margins

The lower end associated with higher dependency on draught beer sales.

Improved food sales

Improved performance of food sales and associated margins. Their dedicated efforts to improve their food offering is paying off for a number of publicans.

Improved payroll to sales ratio average

Payroll to sales ratio average has moved slightly upwards due to the increased focus on quality food production.

Sales to EBITDA Ratio

Large variances are due to the impact of location/footfall and sales mix.

9

PubsSector Outlook

Rising domestic & overseas demand

As Ireland advances towards full employment, the pub sector continues to benefit from a moderate increase in domestic demand. Record numbers of overseas visitors continue to benefit licensed premises particularly in well-established tourism destinations.

Gross profit margins

Food margin could be under pressure in 2019 due the recent VAT increases as not all publicans will be in a position to increase menu prices on their premises.

Beverage margins have shown slight improvement due to the rising popularity of gin and cocktails which yield higher margins.

BOAT LOGOBOAT LOGOBOAT LOGO



Continued growth in Overseas visitors

Slight reduction in alcohol consumption

Healthier lifestyle trends continue to influence alcohol consumption at a national level. Stricter morning after breathalyser check points are impacting on the number of drinks pub goers are having on a typical night out. The Public Health (Alcohol) Bill, which had been before the Oireachtas since 2015 passed through the Dáil in Q4 2018 (the bill’s ultimate aim is to decrease alcohol consumption in Ireland).

Investment & refurbishment

Ongoing investment/refurbishment projects across the larger/busier pubs in Dublin and regionally particularly on those assets operated by larger groups.

10

Dairy

MeasureCurrent sectoral

average*2025

Target**Milk Delivered (Kg / cow) 5,036 5,739Milk Solids (kg fat plus protein/cow) 372 448Calving Interval (days) 391 385Herd Economic Breeding Index (EBI) €93 €180Concentrate feed per cow (kg) 1,008 750

Beef


average*2025

Target**Calves/cow/year 0.81 0.85Calving Interval (days) 407 397Live weight output (kg/ha) 422 505Carcass output (kg/ha) 230 273Concentrate per LU (kg) 393 390

Tillage


average*2025

Target**Yield Winter wheat (Tonne/ha) 9.2 10.2Yield Spring barley (Tonne / ha) 6.8 7.4Percentage of certified seed used in cereal production

75% 85%

Number of farmers following specific nutrient guidelines for crop production (percentage of total)

80% 90%

Sheep


average*2025

Target**Litter Size 1.32 1.65Lambs weaned per ewe 1.29 1.45Stocking rate (ewes/ha)) 7.3 9Carcass weight (kg.ha) 191 260

Pigs


average*2025

Target**Number of pigs produced/sow/year 27.01 27Pig Meat/sow/year (tonne) 2.28 2.27Feed conversion weaning to sale 2.44 2.35

AgriKPIs & Trends

*Current sectoral average date is sourced from Teagasc National Farm Survey, ICBF Herd Performance Reports and Teagasc Pig Department e-Profit monitor reports.

**2025 Targets are sourced from Teagasc Sectoral Roadmaps.

11

Following challenging weather conditions in 2018, incomes are expected to increase on dairy and beef farms in 2019. While milk prices are expected to remain stable, margins for dairy farms are expected to increase due to lower feed and fertiliser usage. The growth of the Irish dairy herd has strengthened beef supplies in recent years. Tillage farmers remain dependent on international grain markets, forecast to fall from current levels in advance of Harvest 2019.

Concern over Brexit outcome

35% of Irish Agri Food and 50% of Irish beef exports are to the UK. The outcome of Brexit is critical given the high tariff rates on food imports to the UK that could be introduced under a Hard Brexit.

Drystock farmers

Drystock farmers are reviewing their options to generate positive net margins. Contract rearing of young replacement dairy stock is in its infancy but is on the increase at the expense of suckler and beef enterprises. Templates for widespread adoption are in development currently.

Basic Payment scheme to be replaced in 2020

Beef, sheep and tillage farmers rely most on the EU funded Basic Payment scheme for net income. The current Basic Payment scheme is due to be replaced in 2020 and negotiations to agree a CAP budget for Europe are ongoing. Cuts of c.5% to the current budget are proposed and impacted by the planned absence of UK funding contributions to CAP post Brexit.

AgriSector Outlook

12

Motor2019 Outlook

Changing demand for engine types

Diesel sales have been in decline in recent years, particularly since the “Diesel Gate” scandal in Q4 2015, and fell below 50% of new sales this year for the first time since 2009. Diesel remains the most popular choice with Irish consumers in 2019, declining from a peak of 76.3% in 2014 and now representing 48.3% of new cars sold, followed by Petrol at 40.8%, Hybrid at 8.7% and Electric at 2.2%.

KPI’s when Analysing Performance

Absorption The importance of a motor dealer’s Aftersales facility cannot be underestimated. The strength of this division can carry the business during volatility in car sales as consumers need to continue to maintain their vehicles.

Absorption is expressed as a percentage of combined Workshop Service and Parts Direct Profit divided by Administrative Overheads. An industry benchmark to aspire to is 80% i.e. 80% of a motor dealers’ Administrative Overheads can be absorbed by the Aftersales Department.

Used Stock Turn is also an essential tool to evaluate performance. Industry benchmark is 8 times stock turn i.e. a dealer would turn their average stock holding 8 times annually. The benefit to the motor dealer is less interest charges and lower depreciation allocated to used stock and brings increased profitability.

Petrol Diesel OtherEVPetrol Electric

The new passenger car market in Ireland experienced exceptional growth from 2013 to 2016, almost doubling in size. It has, however, declined 14.4% since its peak in 2016 and is expected to further decline by ca. 10-12% in 2019. The decline can be attributed to the impact of Brexit, increase in used car import volumes and consumer confusion concerning engine choice (Electric, Petrol or Diesel). Franchised dealers can refocus business opportunities on Used Cars and Workshop Departments to counter the lost contribution from new car sales.

The full effect of the implementation of WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure), RDE (Real Driving Emissions) Step 2, and recent government budget increase on VRT of 1% should be seen in 2019. Declared C02 emissions are expected to rise following these tests which will lead to increases in new car prices and road tax.

Engine Type: Changing Trends2008 C02 VRT / RT Introduced

Diesel Demand Increases

Diesel Demand Peaks in 2014

“Diesel Gate” 09/2015

Diesel Demand falls

2009

21.9

71.0

40.828.2 48.3

8.72.2

2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD

0.5

0.3

76.3

SIMI: Mar 2019 YTD13

National PositionNew (N) -10.7% YTD

Used Imports (UI) +2.7% YTD

MotorNew Car Market & Used Imports

New Car Geographic Development March 2019 YTD

Connaight/Ulster*

N: -10.3% YTDUI: -3.6% YTD

Rest of Leinster*

N: -15.1% YTDUI: +1.3% YTD

Dublin

N: -8.7% YTDUI: +14.8% YTD

Munster

N: -10.1% YTDUI: -1.6% YTD

Used Imports

The annual volume of used vehicle imports from the UK market reached a record high of 100,750 units in 2018 (double that of 2015). There is a direct correlation between the weakness of sterling and the influx of used imports. As long as sterling continues to trade in its current range, used car imports will continue. Used imports can be seen as an opportunity for the motor sector, particularly as new car demand declines, as these cars generally carry higher margins than locally sourced vehicles.

A hard Brexit is likely to substantially reduce used car imports (10% WTO tariff, non-tariff delays, plus 23% VAT on imports to EU which would offset any weakening in sterling).

Commercial Vehicles

The Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) market also experienced exceptional growth from 2013 to 2016 (2.5x growth) but has been trending down in recent years. LCV sales declined 9.5% since its peak in 2016 and is expected to further decline by ca. 10-12% in 2019. This decline could be a sign of SMEs postponing investment decisions until there is greater clarity regarding the outcome of Brexit.

Brexit Impact: GBP vs. Eur & Used Imports

2013-2015 Rising new car market. Used Imports flat

2016 Brexit Referendum

2016-2018 Falling new car market.

Used Imports growth

2019Forecast

* border countiesData source: SIMI14

Store revamps

Progressive retailers are delivering sales growth of 5% - 10% and margin growth of 0.5%-1% from targeted revamp investment in their stores.

Managing shrink/waste

Given that Fresh and Deli categories form an integral part of many store revamps, the management of shrink/waste is critical to ensure that the maximum benefit is derived from the investment. A maximum shrink level of 1.5%-2% should be targeted as a sustainable metric.

Identifying targeted metrics

Given the competitive nature of the Irish employee market, retailers may need to address remuneration levels to attract and retain quality staff. The wages and salaries metric will vary depending on store format - Grocery, Convenience, Forecourt - and location - regional, city-centre etc. In Bank of Ireland, we are available to support retailers in identifying appropriate targeted metrics for their store based on appropriate bench-mark information.

Retail ConvenienceKPIs & Trends

SALES5-10%

Rise of contactless payments

The Irish consumer is seeking quick, convenient payment solutions. 2017 saw growth of 150% in card payments via contactless method when compared to 2016. 25% of all card payments in Ireland are now via Contactless. Retailers need to ensure that they are equipped to meet the needs of their customers – investment in self-scan checkouts, mobile app etc.

max

imum shrink level

of 1.5%-2%

15

Revamp activity

Significant store revamp activity continues across all brands facilitating retailers to align their offering to the expectations of the discerning Irish consumer. Detailed analysis pre and post revamp will be an imperative to ensure that maximum return on investment is delivered via sales mix improvement, margin growth and cost saving.

Potential new legislation

Potential legislative developments in the areas of rates, sugar-tax, minimum wage, living wage and inheritance tax / transfer of a business relief will be monitored with interest by retailers and their professional advisors.

Partnerships

The partnership model or ‘brand within a brand’ will continue to grow as leading retailers incorporate multi-brand offerings such as Freshii, Subway, The Chicken Guys, Frank & Honest and Insomnia in-store to meet the expectations and requirements of a wider consumer cohort.

Forecourt store

Forecourt stores category to remain extremely competitive with Circle K, Applegreen and Maxol competing with Spar and Centra forecourt retailers for the convenience and transient shopper. The food-to-go range, dine-in options and in-store coffee brand are now key differentiators for the Irish consumer in choosing a Forecourt store.

Retail ConvenienceSector Outlook

Retention of staff

The retention and recruitment of skilled, experienced staff will continue to be a key focus for retailers in a competitive employment market (running at close to “full employment”). 100%

16

0 – 2021 – 4041 – 6061 – 80

81 – 100101 – 120121 – 140140 +

HealthcareKPIs & Trends

6%5%

8%

8%

22%33%

16%2%

Demographics

The CSO projects the population of >65s will increase to 860,600 over next 10 years. Those >85 will increase by 55% to 104,710 in that period.

Nursing Homes Supply

In January 2019, there were 576 public, private and voluntary nursing homes with c. 30,858 beds registered by the Health Information and Quality Authority (HIQA), in Ireland.

2019 Registered Nursing Home / Bed Census2019 Public Private Voluntary Total

Nursing Homes 121 383 72 576

Beds 5,903 21,513 3,442 30,858

Growth in private and voluntary nursing home sector

The private and voluntary nursing home sector has grown by 66% over the last 15 years from 14,946 beds in 2003 to 24,955 in 2019. However, since 2016, there has only been a net increase of 1,261 beds.

Nursing homes demand to increase

Demand for long-term and intermediate care resident places projected to increase by between 40 - 54% by 2030, from a level of 29,000 in 2015. Projections do not take account of the number of nursing homes that may be at the end of their life cycle.

Size of Private and Voluntary Nursing Homes

• 50% of the bed stock are in homes with less than 60 beds with 17% of this bed stock in homes of less than 40 beds

• 59% of bed stock in home with between 40 and 100 beds

• 4,302 beds in 149 Private/Voluntary homes which have <40 beds

• 51% of the public bed stock is in homes with less than 60 beds with 32% of this stock in homes of less than 40 beds

17

Rising construction tender prices

Construction prices rose by c.7% in 2018 partially due to skills shortages.

Rising costs of building new beds

Average costs of building new beds have risen over the last 4 years by c.75% from c. €90k per bed to c. €160k per bed. The average increase of Fair Deal rates for the same period has been 3.9%.

Fair Deal rates

Although future nursing home bed demand requirements have been projected, the expected level of building of new homes in counties with lower Fair Deal rates may not materialise as the capital value of greenfield nursing homes once operational may, as a result of the Fair Deal rates and increased staff costs, be lower than the development costs.

New entrants to increase portfolio size

There is continued interest among the new international and domestic investor entrants to increase their portfolio size and exit of some single home owner operators.

Sales activity increases

Increased sale activity with quality ‘fit-for-purpose’ nursing homes achieving price multiples of up to 10 times adjusted EBITDA.

Wages as % of turnover 58-62%Cap Ex per

bed per annumc.€1k

18

Demographics

The CSO projects the population of over 65s will increase to 860,600 over the next 10 years. Those over 85 will increase by 55% to 104,710 in that period.

Community Pharmacies

Retail Pharmacy

Despite industry predictions since 2014 that the number of retail pharmacies would reduce, they have risen by 7.3% from 1,737 in 2014 to 1,864 retail pharmacies registered in January 2019.

Overall amount paid by the State to pharmacists reduces by 25%

The 2009 – 2017 Primary Care Reimbursement Service (PCRS) data shows that, as a result of an ageing population and associated polypharmacy, there was an 12% increase in the number of items dispensed under the various State Schemes. However, as a result of changes to the State Reimbursement, the overall amount paid by the State to pharmacists has reduced by 25%.

State payment reduced while pharmacists dispense more.

2009 – 2017

25%

€12%

PharmacyKPIs & Trends

7.3%

201920182017201620152014

186418511836180517771737

19

Value increasing more slowly than volume

Reports from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) demonstrate, between 2014 and 2017, that while the volume of retail sales of Pharmaceutical, Medical and Cosmetic Items increased by 17.8%, the value only increased by 9.6%.

Increased costs

Sector outlook

A positive outlook for resilient pharmacy operators.

Headwinds in relation to staffing and other increasing costs.

20% 5%Wage Costs increased to 20% of turnover.

Rent Costs of turnover.

Reduced EBITDA

20

Software as a Service (SaaS)

Gartner predicts cloud application services or software as a service (SaaS) revenues expected to grow by 17.8% to reach $85.1billion in 2019. Put simply, SaaS is software delivered over the internet and rented by users rather than owned and purchased in a one off transaction. It gives software firms more predictable cashflows but at the cost of upfront revenues. In 2016, SaaS represented 25% of the total enterprise software market. It is expected to reach 40% by 2021 (Boston Consulting Group). SaaS revenues are growing 4 times faster than on premise license (Gartner).

The key to success for SaaS vendors is to master account-based marketing to retain and grow footprint with existing customers. SaaS companies need both hunting and farming sales model, whereas old software model was more focused on new business, as existing customers had high switching costs.

Cloud spending increases

The move to store data and computing power in third party data centres, aka cloud, continues at breakneck speed. Just as most businesses don’t own their own power generator, they increasingly don’t want to own servers. Like electricity grid the cloud offers data storage as scalable resource without upfront capex.

Globally, Gartner predicts that by 2021, total annual cloud industry revenues will reach €278billion.

IT Services: Growth & Challenge

IT services will be a key driver for IT spending in 2019 with the market forecast to reach $1 trillion in 2019, an increase of 4.7% from 2018. Largely, IT services firms differentiated themselves on customer satisfaction and operating efficiency. However, robotic process automation (RPA) and artificial intelligence (AI) will erode ability to compete on these fronts as the same capabilities will be widely available, so tech services firms will need to offer more innovative and wider scope solutions for their customers. This is driving high level of acquisitions in the tech services space.

Technology KPIs & Trends

Software Research & Development

Given rate of change and global competition in software market, Irish firms need a market-led and properly resourced Research & Development strategy. Analysis of leading software vendors such as Oracle suggests they typically invest between 10-15% of headline revenue in R&D.

headline revenue invested in R&D10-15%

Increasingly trading tech firms are using combination of Enterprise Ireland grants and bank finance to fund their R&D.

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Omnichannel Sales

Specialised IT Services

Connected Health

Data Security

Fintech & Regtech

Artificial Intelligence

Technology Trends Business Focus

MBO / M&A1/3 of BOI

lending in 2018

Cloud Costs Continue Dropping

Account Based Marketing

IDENTIFY

EXPAND

ENGAGE

ADVOCATE

22

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