SECOND QUARTER 2020 EARNINGS WEBCAST

23
SECOND QUARTER 2020 EARNINGS WEBCAST

Transcript of SECOND QUARTER 2020 EARNINGS WEBCAST

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SECOND QUARTER 2020EARNINGS WEBCAST

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Today’s Speakers

Alejandro Elizondo

IRO

José Carlos Pons

CFO

José de Jesús Valdez

CEO

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Topics for Today’s Webcast

I. COVID-19 Update

II. Financial Performance

III. Long-term Growth Strategy

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Feedstock

Prices

Polyester

Margins

Operations

Demand

• Lower crude oil demand in Asia results in

historically low prices for Crude Oil and Px

• Resulting in negative Inventory loss & RMCF

effects in 2Q20, with potential to revert in 3Q20

• Solid demand and lower Asian PTA/PET output

improved margins (+13% QoQ)

• Alpek’s businesses deemed as essential / No

adverse effect to operations

• Increased safety measures for employees at

plants and home-office whenever possible

• Strong PET volume, particularly due to emphasis

on hygiene and safety

• EPS volume from Construction segment impacted

in Mexico, though rebounded in June

+

=

+

COVID-19 Update

=

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2Q20 Financial Highlights

Strong Alpek performance QoQ best explained through Comparable EBITDA

excluding RMCF result (US$149M / +1% QoQ)

Polyester margins increased by 13% QoQ and Volume on record-setting pace

(+4% YTD) but lower vs. 1Q20 record high (-6% QoQ)

Temporary negative Inventory Adjustment (-US$42M) and Raw Material Carry-

forward (-US$39M) effects in 2Q20 as feedstock prices fell to historical lows

Focus on FCF as Net Debt reduced (-31% YoY) and CAPEX lowered (-61% YoY)

US$81.6M dividend suspended, but open for review by Board of Directors in 2H20

Liquidity strength continues as cash balance improved (+7% QoQ) and US$1.4B

in total credit lines were maintained

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140161

194167

11174

188

148

189172

110

167

217231

173

147 149

1Q19 2Q19

356

127

3Q19

213

4Q19 1Q20 2Q20

Comp. EBITDA

ReportedEBITDA

Comp. EBITDAexcl. RMCF1

+1.4%

CoGen

Sale

Alpek EBITDA (US$M)

EBITDA Evolution

(1) Raw Material Carry-forward

• Comparable EBITDA excluding

RMCF1 of US$149M (+1% QoQ)

• Quarter on quarter improvement

as stronger Polyester margins

(+13%) more than offset lower

volume (-6% QoQ)

• Comparable EBITDA and

Reported EBITDA lower QoQ due

to larger Inventory Losses &

RMCF effects

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Feedstock CostsCrude Oil, Px and Propylene all reached record lows in April/May 2020

Brent Crude Oil Price NA Paraxylene Contract Price NA Propylene Contract Price

1,1651,077

955 937876

590

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

4Q3Q1Q

US$/Ton

2Q 1Q 2Q

-33%

38 3738

35

31

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1Q

cpp

2Q1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

-16%

2019 2020 2019 2020

17

41

0

80

40

20

60

US$/Bbl

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

2019 2020

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EBITDA Breakdown

151

94 102

63

33

62

5046

39

46

40

2Q20

Reported

EBITDA

Polyester

2Q20

Comparable

EBITDA

2Q19

Comparable

EBITDA

excl. RMCF

Inventory

Adjustment

RMCF1

74

110

1Q20

Comparable

EBITDA

excl. RMCF

2Q20

Comparable

EBITDA

excl. RMCF

P&C

42

6

Others

Others

149

217

147

+1%

Alpek 2Q20 EBITDA (US$M)

(1) Raw Material Carry-forward

• Polyester Comp. EBITDA excl.

RMCF of US$102M (+9% QOQ)

• Negative RMCF & Inventory

Adjustment effects from Px and

Propylene price decline

• P&C Comp. EBITDA of US$46M

(-7% QoQ)

• Strong PP margins, but volume

decrease from EPS (-19% QoQ)

• One-time US$6M gain from

insurance payout related to 3Q18

fire at Altamira PTA facility

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Free Cash Flow Generation

185

127

51

10142

163

53

NWCEBITDA

1,428

CAPEXNet Debt

Dec’19

Financial

Expenses

Taxes Dividends Others Net Debt

Jun’20

1,330

US$M

FCF: US$118M

• Alpek with emphasis on financial

stability and strong liquidity

• FCF year-to-date of US$118M

(+US$189M vs. Guidance)

• NWC +US$127M year-to-date

(+US$203M vs. Guidance)

• CAPEX of US$42M (-61% YoY &

-US92M vs. Guidance)

• US$81.6M Dividend suspended

but open for review by Board of

Directors

9

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Long-term Growth Strategy

• Global Cost Improvement

• Value-added Products

• FCF Generation

• Footprint Optimization

• Value Chain Integration

• Product Innovation

• Maximize CCP Value

• rPET Leadership

• Recycling Promotion

• Sustainable Product Portfolio

Growth Catalysts

Strengthen

Core

Business

Strategic &

Focused

Growth

Foster

Circular

Economy

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2H20 OUTLOOK

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Q&A

José de Jesús Valdez

CEO

José Carlos Pons

CFO

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APPENDIX

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking

statements”. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and

uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may

or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V. and its

subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the forward-

looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.

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Raw Material Carry-forward Effect (RMCF) BreakdownSmaller YoY & QoQ difference in EBITDA when excluding extraordinary effects

2020 2019 Delta

M dls 1Q 2Q YTD 1Q 2Q YTD 1Q 2Q YTD

Reported EBITDA 111 74 185 140 161 301 (29) (87) (116)

Inventory Adjustment (17) (42) (59) (19) (27) (46) 2 (15) (13)

Others 0 6 6 11 (1) 10 (11) 7 (4)

Comparable EBITDA 127 110 238 148 189 337 (20) (79) (99)

Raw Material Carry-forward (20) (39) (59) (19) (28) (47) (1) (11) (12)

Comparable EBITDA excl. RMCF 147 149 296 167 217 384 (20) (68) (88)

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Relevant References: Crude OilHistorical lows in April before rebound after OPEC production cuts

Brent Crude Oil Price

53

44

54

71

6460

0

20

40

100

80

120

US$/Bbl

Avg.99

2014 2015 2016 2017 20192018 2020

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Relevant References: ParaxylenePx prices continued to fall in 2Q20 following their correlation with Crude Oil

1,7081,635 1,641

1,382

992876

989924 924

9771,056 1,100

1,258 1,2821,165

1,077955 937

876

590

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2011

US$/Ton

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 4Q1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q

2017 2018 2019

NA Px Contract Price

US$143/ton

decrease

from Mar.’20

to Jun.’20

2020

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Integrated PET MarginsMargins improved by 13% based on resilient demand and lower Asian production

200

74 69 69 62 64 60 72 80 81 104133 135 117 110

155 14082 78 83

193

174 186 208165 159 180

204 184 202

238

346

242

215 214

214

164

145196

227

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013

227

US$/Ton

PET

2015

277

2011

377

1Q3Q2014 2016 1Q

275304

2Q2Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 3Q

227

4Q 2Q

PTA

310333

393

248 255

223240

276263

284

342

478

324

370

China

2017 2018 2019

Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET)

2020

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NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PP to PGP)

12 1213

15

24

27

19

22 22 2221

20

1516

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

16 2Q1511

cpp

1412 13 17 18 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

76

60

6971

39

34

45

54

38 37 3835

31

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

17 1Q

cpp

1211 1513 4Q14 16 18 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q

2019 2020 2019 2020

Relevant References: Propylene & PolypropyleneDecrease in PGP contract prices, but Alpek PP margins remain strong

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Continuously improving financial performanceNet Debt decreased by 1% as Leverage remains at strong levels

Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times)

944

864 850821

735

2Q202Q19 3Q19 1Q204Q19

2.22.4

1.6

1.7

1.9

1Q203Q192Q19 4Q19 2Q20

2,084 2,036

1,3301,436 1,428

2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20

-1%

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• Global Cost Improvement

• Value-added Products

• FCF Generation

• Footprint Optimization

• Value Chain Integration

• Product Innovation

• Maximize CCP Value

• rPET Leadership

• Recycling Promotion

• Sustainable Product Portfolio

Growth Catalysts Details / Description

• Zero Based Budgeting & process innovation (Mainly Operations, Logistics & SG&A)

• Shift to products with higher margins & barriers to entry (Copolymers, Grey EPS)

• Reductions to CAPEX & NWC / Recovery of M&G Mexico debt

• Ensure global production is performed in optimal sites & logistic networks

• Grow capacity selectively & integrate into value chain (EPS, Px)

• New products & business lines (Biovento, Natural Gas Commercialization, CO2, PLA)

• Optimize project timing & minimize CAPEX

• Lead rPET supply in Americas through capital-effective investment

• Secure PET Bale & Flake supply / Equip vPET plants with single-pellet technology

• Active lobbying for circular economy via associations & The Recycling Partnership

• Develop sustainable alternatives for all our products (Biodegradable EPS & PP, etc.)

Strengthen

Core

Business

Strategic &

Focused

Growth

Foster

Circular

Economy

Alpek Growth Strategy

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For Additional InformationEmail: [email protected] / Phone: +52 (818) 748-1146

• 8 Years at Alfa/Alpek

• Previously held roles in Human Capital, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel

• BA in International Relations from ITESM

Alejandra

Bustamante

IR Manager

[email protected]

• 9 Years at Alfa/Alpek

• Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at

Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group

• BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business

Alejandro

Elizondo

IRO

[email protected]

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SECOND QUARTER 2020EARNINGS WEBCAST