SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from...

16
SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015

Transcript of SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from...

Page 1: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

SECOND

QUARTER

2015 AUGUST 3, 2015

Page 2: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

2

Major highlights from Q2 2015

176

149

180

150 168

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

Revenues (USD m) +12%

Module revenues of USD 168m, up 12%

Significant shipment volumes of 130 MW

to U.S. based on succeeded major long-

term supply agreements, up 44%

Increased solar footprint in APAC: 45 MW,

up 150%, due to shipments to Thailand

Successful balance of declining Europe by

booming U.S., demonstrating REC’s

excellent global presence

Based on Altman-Z score by Bloomberg

New Energy Finance, REC again

confirmed as most financially stable solar

panel manufacturer

Intersolar Award for new TwinPeak panel,

plus new floating application for renowned

Peak Energy Series

Announcement of transaction closing: REC

to join forces with Norway-based Elkem

Group

Page 3: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

3

Transaction update

As of May 13, 2015, REC – the largest European brand of solar panels – is part of the

Elkem Group. Ambition is to establish a leading integrated PV player in a highly

fragmented solar market.

For customers and partners of REC this means business as usual at REC, with added

strengths and new opportunities going forward.

Elkem looks forward to contribute to the development of the existing organization of REC

and to invest in its further growth as a leading global brand in the solar industry.

As part of this, the division Elkem Solar will merge into REC for a further optimized solar

value chain.

Formal procedure: “REC Solar ASA” has sold all assets (production facility, brand,

patents, subsidiaries, etc.) of REC to Bluestar Elkem. “REC Solar ASA” is now a separate

Norwegian entity and no longer the parent company of REC. “REC Solar ASA” is planning

to be de-listed from the Oslo Stock Exchange.

REC, however, will continue to be headquartered in Norway with operational

headquarters in Singapore, producing high-quality solar panels, with plans for further

growth and expansion.

Page 4: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

4

Transaction update – old vs. new corporate structure

Elkem Solar

(Norway)

old structure* new structure*

REC Solar ASA

(Norway,

Oslo Stock Exchange)

REC Solar Holdings AS

(Norway)

Elkem

(Bluestar Elkem Investment Co. Ltd.)

* Simplified for better understanding

REC Solar ASA

(Norway,

Oslo Stock Exchange)

in liquidation in order to exit Oslo Stock Exchange

REC Solar Holdings AS

(Norway)

Page 5: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

5

Global solar module demand expected to increase by

~30% in 2015

REC expects annual global module

installations to reach around 58 GW in

2015, an increase of 30% from 2014

REC’s outlook for 2016 and 2017 is

slightly lower compared to expectations

from IHS or BNEF due to lower

forecasts for European markets

China and Japan are forecasted to

account for nearly 50% of global

installations in 2015, followed by the

U.S. as the third biggest market

31.6

38.8 44.3

58 63 65

68

0

20

40

60

80

2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Annual Module Installations Globally (GW)

Source: REC forecast

Page 6: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

6

REC regional sales split vs. solar industry – Global

30% 28%

60% 53% 53%

39%

20%

16% 14%

7% 16%

21%

39%

50%

22% 27%

25% 22% 19% 12%

13% 18% 15%

8% 8% 7% 10%

17% 11% 12%

1% 1%

2% 3%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 2015E 2016E

REC Solar industry*

Geographical sales split of MW

Africa

Middle East

APAC

Japan

Americas

Europe

China

* Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015

Page 7: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

7

REC sales and market development – Europe

REC expects more conservative market

developments for 2015/2016 at ~7 GW,

mainly in UK and Germany

From 2017, increase to 10+ GW annually

expected, due to storage opportunities for

residential and commercial segments

Several announced regulation changes in

UK expected to have an impact:

No CfD auction in the rest of 2015

ROC scheme for projects <5MW will close

on April 1, 2016 – a year earlier

Grandfathering under ROC removed

Pre-accreditation to be removed for

installations >50kW; increased uncertainty

over FiT due to further reviews by DECC

REC will seek to penetrate new markets

within Africa region

135

112

139

89

53

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

REC sales development Europe (MW)

1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8

3.4 4.3

5.3 5.9

6.9 2.6 2.6 1.1

1.3

1.5

7.8 9.0 8.6

9.7

11.3

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Annual module installations Europe (GW)

Residential Commercial Utility-Scale

Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW

Not included: “Off grid”

Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015

Page 8: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

8

REC country sales split vs. solar industry – Europe

* Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015, REC

38%

28%

4%

17%

50%

17% 21%

46%

55%

72%

67%

28%

39% 26%

4% 1%

11% 2%

1%

6%

8%

11% 16%

13% 15% 21%

38% 45%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 2015E 2016E

REC Solar industry*

Percentage of regional MW sales in Europe

Others

BeNl

UK

Germany

REC holds

a strong

position in

Germany;

6.3%

market

share in

H1 2015

Page 9: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

9

Europe: MIP expected to continue through 2016

Facts:

Anti-dumping (AD) tariff was decided by EU in May 2013: between 37% and 68% (e.g.

Jinko: 41%, JA Solar: 51%, Renesola: 43%, Yingli Solar: 35%, Trina Solar: 44%)

AD became effective Dec. 5, 2013 for a period of 2 years

Undertaking and MIP agreed between EU and CCCMW for a period of 2 years as of

Dec. 7, 2013

Prosun (SolarWorld)

- May 6, 2015: EU confirmed

start investigation of MIP

mechanism (results expected

Aug. 2016)

- Sep. 2015: plan to request for

further investigation (duration:

max. 15 months)

AFASE integrated since

Oct 2013 in SETI

- No new statement, but

against actions of Prosun

SolarPower Europe (EPIA)

- Announced April 27, 2015

during SNEC that they

would like to have a free

trade (i.e. without barriers)

of solar in EU after MIP

ends on Dec. 7, 2015

Prosun will trigger a new investigation in EU, leading to an extension of MIP

Opposition not organized anymore

Page 10: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

10

REC sales and market development – U.S.

The U.S. market is expected to grow by

~50% from 2014 to year 2016

A reduction in the investment tax credit in

2017 is expected to reduce installations

in utility and large commercial segments

Stable progress for residential and

small/mid-scale commercial expected

Adjusted AD/CVD tariffs by DoC could

exceed 250% for Chinese manufacturers

and are expected to have only a short-

term effect on PV system costs

REC has strengthened its position in the

U.S. through several long-term supply

agreements

818 MW are planned for delivery in

2015/2016, to among others SolarCity

and Sunrun

50% of REC’s total sales in Q2 2015 are

to the U.S.

Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW

Not included: “Off grid”

Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015

16

34

55

90

130

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

REC sales development USA (MW)

1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9

2.5 3.9 3.3 3.7

4.0

5.3

7.5

1.9 2.3

7.0

9.3

13.3

7.0 8.1

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Annual module installations USA (GW)

Residential Commercial Utility-Scale

Page 11: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

11

REC sales and market development – Japan

Japan will be the second largest market in

2015, with forecast to install 10.4 GW

Mega-solar installations (>1 MW) expected

at around 4.6 GW in 2015

Commercial installations with10-50 kW

expected at 3.7 GW in 2015

Although new FiT for residential systems

reduced by 5.5%, continually declining

system prices can maintain project ROI -

residential installations expected relative

stable at around 1GW

REC is valued as a premium supplier,

especially in quality conscious residential

and small/mid-scale commercial segments

Therefore, REC is targeting stronger

business focus and enlarged customer

portfolio for projects <1 MW

Despite increased competition by cheaper

Chinese suppliers in large-scale markets,

REC secured its position for approved

project pipeline by METI

Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW

Not included: “Off grid”

Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015

56

47 50

32 33

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

REC sales development Japan (MW)

1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9

8.1 8.2 7.4 6.8 6.1

1.0 1.2 1.2

1.1 1.0

10.1 10.4 9.4

8.8 8.0

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Annual module installations Japan (GW)

Residential Commercial Utility-Scale

Page 12: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

12

REC country sales split vs. solar industry – APAC

* Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015

22%

2%

63%

19%

2%

33%

42%

51%

52%

27%

54%

7%

15%

12%

6%

6%

3%

5%

78%

18% 11%

5% 5%

4%

5%

13%

4%

11% 10%

21%

37%

2% 9% 9%

18% 20%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 2015E 2016E

REC Solar industry*

Percentage of regional MW sales in APAC

Others

South Korea

Philippines

Thailand

Australia

India

APAC is a very

opportunistic region,

driven by political

regulations, such as

those in Thailand

REC secured supply

agreements of 35

MW in Q2 2015 for

utility scale projects

part of a new

governmental

program

Page 13: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

13

Capacity expansion to 1.3 GW on schedule

525

647

721

820

954

1,300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

REC annual solar module production (MW)

0

* To achieve by year end

Page 14: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

14

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

REC Peak Energy (60 cells)

REC TwinPeak (120 half-cut cells)

REC Peak Energy 72 (72 cells)

Module watt class distribution 2015 (Wp)

REC cell efficiency and module power continue to improve

17.0

17.4

17.6

17.8

18.3

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

Dec. 2011 Dec. 2012 Dec. 2013 Dec. 2014 Dec. 2015E

Average cell efficiency (%)

Page 15: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

15

REC has the best rating in regards to financial health

and bankability according to Bloomberg’s Altman-Z

Altman-Z scores of solar companies (as of Q2 2015)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Developed by Edward Altman in 1968, the Altman-Z score predicts the probability of

business failure leading to bankruptcy. It is a function of tangible assets, working

capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, total liabilities, and historical

revenue.

Page 16: SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from Q2 2015 176 149 150 180 168 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Revenues (USD

16

Outlook 2015

Industry analysts are expecting a strong pick up of ~30% in global

demand in 2015, especially in China, Japan and the U.S.

REC expects favorable market conditions in the U.S. in 2015 and

more conservative progress in Europe

PV system costs continue to decrease, resulting in ~30 countries at

grid parity, including U.S., Japan, and Germany

– Central LCOE global in H1 2015 = USD cents 12.9

– Central utility-scale LCOE in China in 2015 = USD cents 8-12

– Central utility-scale LCOE in U.S. in 2015 = USD cents 10.1-18.1

– Central utility-scale LCOE in Europe in 2015 = USD cents 8.8-17.7

Global market

outlook

2015

REC strategy

outlook

2015

Manufacturing capacity expansion from 954 MW at end of 2014 to

1,300 MW by the end of 2015 on track

Secure further long-term supply agreements in the U.S.

Explore new business models, e.g. Power Purchase Agreement

(PPA) in Singapore

Expand product portfolio to better address various customer needs:

– Introduction of REC Peak Energy BLK2 Series with black frame and a black

backsheet for improved aesthetics

– Peak Energy Series approved for floating installations on fresh water

bodies, under same product guarantees and performance warranties