SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from...
Transcript of SECOND QUARTER 2015 - recgroup.com · SECOND QUARTER 2015 AUGUST 3, 2015 . 2 Major highlights from...
SECOND
QUARTER
2015 AUGUST 3, 2015
2
Major highlights from Q2 2015
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149
180
150 168
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Revenues (USD m) +12%
Module revenues of USD 168m, up 12%
Significant shipment volumes of 130 MW
to U.S. based on succeeded major long-
term supply agreements, up 44%
Increased solar footprint in APAC: 45 MW,
up 150%, due to shipments to Thailand
Successful balance of declining Europe by
booming U.S., demonstrating REC’s
excellent global presence
Based on Altman-Z score by Bloomberg
New Energy Finance, REC again
confirmed as most financially stable solar
panel manufacturer
Intersolar Award for new TwinPeak panel,
plus new floating application for renowned
Peak Energy Series
Announcement of transaction closing: REC
to join forces with Norway-based Elkem
Group
3
Transaction update
As of May 13, 2015, REC – the largest European brand of solar panels – is part of the
Elkem Group. Ambition is to establish a leading integrated PV player in a highly
fragmented solar market.
For customers and partners of REC this means business as usual at REC, with added
strengths and new opportunities going forward.
Elkem looks forward to contribute to the development of the existing organization of REC
and to invest in its further growth as a leading global brand in the solar industry.
As part of this, the division Elkem Solar will merge into REC for a further optimized solar
value chain.
Formal procedure: “REC Solar ASA” has sold all assets (production facility, brand,
patents, subsidiaries, etc.) of REC to Bluestar Elkem. “REC Solar ASA” is now a separate
Norwegian entity and no longer the parent company of REC. “REC Solar ASA” is planning
to be de-listed from the Oslo Stock Exchange.
REC, however, will continue to be headquartered in Norway with operational
headquarters in Singapore, producing high-quality solar panels, with plans for further
growth and expansion.
4
Transaction update – old vs. new corporate structure
Elkem Solar
(Norway)
old structure* new structure*
REC Solar ASA
(Norway,
Oslo Stock Exchange)
REC Solar Holdings AS
(Norway)
Elkem
(Bluestar Elkem Investment Co. Ltd.)
* Simplified for better understanding
REC Solar ASA
(Norway,
Oslo Stock Exchange)
in liquidation in order to exit Oslo Stock Exchange
REC Solar Holdings AS
(Norway)
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Global solar module demand expected to increase by
~30% in 2015
REC expects annual global module
installations to reach around 58 GW in
2015, an increase of 30% from 2014
REC’s outlook for 2016 and 2017 is
slightly lower compared to expectations
from IHS or BNEF due to lower
forecasts for European markets
China and Japan are forecasted to
account for nearly 50% of global
installations in 2015, followed by the
U.S. as the third biggest market
31.6
38.8 44.3
58 63 65
68
0
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Annual Module Installations Globally (GW)
Source: REC forecast
6
REC regional sales split vs. solar industry – Global
30% 28%
60% 53% 53%
39%
20%
16% 14%
7% 16%
21%
39%
50%
22% 27%
25% 22% 19% 12%
13% 18% 15%
8% 8% 7% 10%
17% 11% 12%
1% 1%
2% 3%
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 2015E 2016E
REC Solar industry*
Geographical sales split of MW
Africa
Middle East
APAC
Japan
Americas
Europe
China
* Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015
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REC sales and market development – Europe
REC expects more conservative market
developments for 2015/2016 at ~7 GW,
mainly in UK and Germany
From 2017, increase to 10+ GW annually
expected, due to storage opportunities for
residential and commercial segments
Several announced regulation changes in
UK expected to have an impact:
No CfD auction in the rest of 2015
ROC scheme for projects <5MW will close
on April 1, 2016 – a year earlier
Grandfathering under ROC removed
Pre-accreditation to be removed for
installations >50kW; increased uncertainty
over FiT due to further reviews by DECC
REC will seek to penetrate new markets
within Africa region
135
112
139
89
53
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
REC sales development Europe (MW)
1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8
3.4 4.3
5.3 5.9
6.9 2.6 2.6 1.1
1.3
1.5
7.8 9.0 8.6
9.7
11.3
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Annual module installations Europe (GW)
Residential Commercial Utility-Scale
Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW
Not included: “Off grid”
Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015
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REC country sales split vs. solar industry – Europe
* Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015, REC
38%
28%
4%
17%
50%
17% 21%
46%
55%
72%
67%
28%
39% 26%
4% 1%
11% 2%
1%
6%
8%
11% 16%
13% 15% 21%
38% 45%
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 2015E 2016E
REC Solar industry*
Percentage of regional MW sales in Europe
Others
BeNl
UK
Germany
REC holds
a strong
position in
Germany;
6.3%
market
share in
H1 2015
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Europe: MIP expected to continue through 2016
Facts:
Anti-dumping (AD) tariff was decided by EU in May 2013: between 37% and 68% (e.g.
Jinko: 41%, JA Solar: 51%, Renesola: 43%, Yingli Solar: 35%, Trina Solar: 44%)
AD became effective Dec. 5, 2013 for a period of 2 years
Undertaking and MIP agreed between EU and CCCMW for a period of 2 years as of
Dec. 7, 2013
Prosun (SolarWorld)
- May 6, 2015: EU confirmed
start investigation of MIP
mechanism (results expected
Aug. 2016)
- Sep. 2015: plan to request for
further investigation (duration:
max. 15 months)
AFASE integrated since
Oct 2013 in SETI
- No new statement, but
against actions of Prosun
SolarPower Europe (EPIA)
- Announced April 27, 2015
during SNEC that they
would like to have a free
trade (i.e. without barriers)
of solar in EU after MIP
ends on Dec. 7, 2015
Prosun will trigger a new investigation in EU, leading to an extension of MIP
Opposition not organized anymore
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REC sales and market development – U.S.
The U.S. market is expected to grow by
~50% from 2014 to year 2016
A reduction in the investment tax credit in
2017 is expected to reduce installations
in utility and large commercial segments
Stable progress for residential and
small/mid-scale commercial expected
Adjusted AD/CVD tariffs by DoC could
exceed 250% for Chinese manufacturers
and are expected to have only a short-
term effect on PV system costs
REC has strengthened its position in the
U.S. through several long-term supply
agreements
818 MW are planned for delivery in
2015/2016, to among others SolarCity
and Sunrun
50% of REC’s total sales in Q2 2015 are
to the U.S.
Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW
Not included: “Off grid”
Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015
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34
55
90
130
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
REC sales development USA (MW)
1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9
2.5 3.9 3.3 3.7
4.0
5.3
7.5
1.9 2.3
7.0
9.3
13.3
7.0 8.1
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Annual module installations USA (GW)
Residential Commercial Utility-Scale
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REC sales and market development – Japan
Japan will be the second largest market in
2015, with forecast to install 10.4 GW
Mega-solar installations (>1 MW) expected
at around 4.6 GW in 2015
Commercial installations with10-50 kW
expected at 3.7 GW in 2015
Although new FiT for residential systems
reduced by 5.5%, continually declining
system prices can maintain project ROI -
residential installations expected relative
stable at around 1GW
REC is valued as a premium supplier,
especially in quality conscious residential
and small/mid-scale commercial segments
Therefore, REC is targeting stronger
business focus and enlarged customer
portfolio for projects <1 MW
Despite increased competition by cheaper
Chinese suppliers in large-scale markets,
REC secured its position for approved
project pipeline by METI
Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW
Not included: “Off grid”
Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015
56
47 50
32 33
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
REC sales development Japan (MW)
1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9
8.1 8.2 7.4 6.8 6.1
1.0 1.2 1.2
1.1 1.0
10.1 10.4 9.4
8.8 8.0
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Annual module installations Japan (GW)
Residential Commercial Utility-Scale
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REC country sales split vs. solar industry – APAC
* Source: IHS Integrated PV Market Tracker Q2 2015
22%
2%
63%
19%
2%
33%
42%
51%
52%
27%
54%
7%
15%
12%
6%
6%
3%
5%
78%
18% 11%
5% 5%
4%
5%
13%
4%
11% 10%
21%
37%
2% 9% 9%
18% 20%
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 2015E 2016E
REC Solar industry*
Percentage of regional MW sales in APAC
Others
South Korea
Philippines
Thailand
Australia
India
APAC is a very
opportunistic region,
driven by political
regulations, such as
those in Thailand
REC secured supply
agreements of 35
MW in Q2 2015 for
utility scale projects
part of a new
governmental
program
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Capacity expansion to 1.3 GW on schedule
525
647
721
820
954
1,300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
REC annual solar module production (MW)
0
* To achieve by year end
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250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
REC Peak Energy (60 cells)
REC TwinPeak (120 half-cut cells)
REC Peak Energy 72 (72 cells)
Module watt class distribution 2015 (Wp)
REC cell efficiency and module power continue to improve
17.0
17.4
17.6
17.8
18.3
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
Dec. 2011 Dec. 2012 Dec. 2013 Dec. 2014 Dec. 2015E
Average cell efficiency (%)
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REC has the best rating in regards to financial health
and bankability according to Bloomberg’s Altman-Z
Altman-Z scores of solar companies (as of Q2 2015)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Developed by Edward Altman in 1968, the Altman-Z score predicts the probability of
business failure leading to bankruptcy. It is a function of tangible assets, working
capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, total liabilities, and historical
revenue.
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Outlook 2015
Industry analysts are expecting a strong pick up of ~30% in global
demand in 2015, especially in China, Japan and the U.S.
REC expects favorable market conditions in the U.S. in 2015 and
more conservative progress in Europe
PV system costs continue to decrease, resulting in ~30 countries at
grid parity, including U.S., Japan, and Germany
– Central LCOE global in H1 2015 = USD cents 12.9
– Central utility-scale LCOE in China in 2015 = USD cents 8-12
– Central utility-scale LCOE in U.S. in 2015 = USD cents 10.1-18.1
– Central utility-scale LCOE in Europe in 2015 = USD cents 8.8-17.7
Global market
outlook
2015
REC strategy
outlook
2015
Manufacturing capacity expansion from 954 MW at end of 2014 to
1,300 MW by the end of 2015 on track
Secure further long-term supply agreements in the U.S.
Explore new business models, e.g. Power Purchase Agreement
(PPA) in Singapore
Expand product portfolio to better address various customer needs:
– Introduction of REC Peak Energy BLK2 Series with black frame and a black
backsheet for improved aesthetics
– Peak Energy Series approved for floating installations on fresh water
bodies, under same product guarantees and performance warranties