SEB:s Nordic Credit Quarterly June 2010

8/9/2019 SEB:s Nordic Credit Quarterly June 2010

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SEB Trading Strategy June 2010

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YTD total return iBoxx Investment grade and High yield spread

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

04-Jan 19-Jan 03-Feb 18-Feb 05-Mar 20-Mar 04-Apr 19-Apr 04-May 19-May 03-Jun

iBoxx HY YTD iBoxx IG YTD Stoxx 50 YTD

iBoxx Financials YTD iBoxx Germany YTD

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

04-Jan 19-Jan 03-Feb 18-Feb 05-Mar 20-Mar 04-Apr 19-Apr 04-May 19-May 03-Jun440

470

500

530

560

590

620

iBoxx Corp IG (LHS) iBoxx Corp HY (RHS)

Source: SEB, Markit, Bloomberg Source: SEB, Markit

iBoxx Investment grade spread iBoxx High yield spread

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

iBoxx Corp IG Average default implied IG

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Nov-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-10

iBoxx HY Average default implied HYObserved default implied HY Forecasted default implied HY

Source: SEB, Markit Source: SEB, Markit

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= The good the bad and the ugly

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= Business sentiment improving

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ISM and PMI Industrial production

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-00 Dec-00 Nov-01 Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05 Jun-06 May-07 Apr-08 Mar-09 Feb-10

ISM Manufacturing Euro zone PMI Manufacturing

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10

Euro zone industrial production YoY US industrial production YoY

Source: SEB, Bloomberg Source: SEB, Bloomberg

Retail sales Potential downgrades vs. potential upgrades ratio

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10

Euro zone retail sales YoY US retail sales YoY

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Downgrade vs. upgrade ratio (U.S.) Downgrade vs. upgrade ratio (Europe)

Source: SEB, Bloomberg Source: SEB, S&P

= Sovereign debt situation

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PIIGS 5yr CDS SovX vs. Main and Sr Financials

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

01-Dec 19-Dec 06-Jan 24-Jan 11-Feb 01-Mar 19-Mar 06-Apr 24-Apr 12-May 30-May

Portugal I reland I taly Spain Greece

Bailoutpackage

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10

iTraxx SovX WE iTraxx Main iTraxx Sr Fin European Sovereign

Source: SEB, Markit, Bloomberg Source: SEB, Bloomberg

= Risk aversion and political risk

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==

VIX Index

= =

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

Jan-00 Dec-00 Nov-01 Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05 Jun-06 May-07 Apr-08 Mar-09 Feb-10

VIX Index

Source: SEB, Bloomberg

= Spread to yield Credit still offers a sizeable premium

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IG spread to 5yr German government yield HY spread to 5yr German government yield

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Jan-99 Apr-00 Jul-01 Oct-02 Jan-04 Apr-05 Jul-06 Oct-07 Jan-09 Apr-101.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

(%)

Spread to yield IG (LHS) 5yr German gov (RHS)

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

Nov-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-101.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

(%)

Spread to yield HY (LHS) 5yr German Gov (RHS)


= Negative basis should increase

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==

Negative basis

= =

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10

IG Basis Predicted Basis

Source: SEB, Bloomberg, Markit

= Wait-and-see approach best way forward

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9


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Default rates= ^===~=NOJ====~=~=~==

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==

Number of monthly HY defaults

= =

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10

US Europe Other

Source: SEB, Moodys

= Default rate model

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European speculative-grade default rate forecast US speculative-grade default rate forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000-09 2001-09 2002-09 2003-09 2004-09 2005-09 2006-09 2007-09 2008-09 2009-09 2010-09

European speculative-grade default rate Model Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1991-10 1993-10 1995-10 1997-10 1999-10 2001-10 2003-10 2005-10 2007-10 2009-10

U.S. speculative-grade default rate Model Forecast

Source: S&P, Bloomberg, SEB Source: S&P, Bloomberg, SEB

==

Speculative-grade default rate forecast March 2011

= =Market Implied

Europe

(5yr average)

SEB

Europe

SEB

U.S.

S&P

U.S.

Moody's

US

Moody's

Europe

9.7% 1.2% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0%* 1.5%*

*Moody's forecast is for December 2010

= = Source: S&P, Moodys and SEB. Market implied rate is a 5yr average and assumes a 40% recovery rate.

12-month default rates 1982 April 2010 Market implied default rate (5yr average)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1982-01 1985-01 1988-01 1991-01 1994-01 1997-01 2000-01 2003-01 2006-01 2009-01

U.S. speculative-grade default rate European speculative-grade default rate

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2004-06 2005-02 2005-10 2006-06 2007-01 2007-09 2008-05 2009-01 2009-09 2010-05

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Crossover (LHS) Main (RHS)

Source: S&P Source: SEB, Bloomberg

=

=

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Our recommendations= f===I==~===~===

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Financials vs. Non-financials ratio

= =

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jul-03 Apr-04 Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10

Financials Sr vs. Non-Financials Sr

Source: SEB, Markit

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Utilities vs. Industrials 5yr CDS

Vattenfall, Atlas Copco, ABB and Assa Abloy

5yr CDS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10

Utilities A 5yr CDS Industrials A 5yr CDS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

Vattenfal l ABB Atlas Copco Assa Abloy


=

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Relative value, Utilities Relative value, Vattenfall vs. Statkraft

DONGVattenfall

FortumVattenfall

Fortum

DONG

VattenfallStatkraft

StatoilHydro

Vattenfall

Statkraft

Fortum

TVO

Vattenfall

VattenfallFortum

StatkraftDONG

StatoilHydro

Vattenfall

Vattenfall

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

Years-to-maturity

ASWspread

VattenfallVattenfallStatkraft

Vattenfall

VattenfallStatkraft

Vattenfall

StatkraftVattenfall

Vattenfall

Vattenfall

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

Years-to-maturity

ASWspread

Source: Markit, SEB Source: Markit, SEB

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Relative value, Nordic Industrials

= =

Investor

Volvo

Investor

Maersk

Metso

Atlas Copco

Carlsberg

Volvo

Sandvik

SKFSwedish Match

ABBSecuritas

Volvo

InvestorABB

Metso

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Years-to-maturity

ASWspread


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Relative value, Statoil

= =

Stoil 5.625 Mar 2021

Stoil 4.375 Mar 2015

Stoil 5.125 Jun 2011

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Years to maturity

Z-spread

Source: Markit, SEB

= Relative value, Pulp & paper

= = jJ~D=E`~~NL```HF=àp=~=======~===~=~=~==~===~D=~~=K=q=~=~=~~===J=~====~===~======~~====~K=t=

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15


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==

M-reals and Norske Skogs CDSs

= =UP FRONT TRADING Bid Ask +bps running

M-real 8 10 500

Norske Skog 25 27 500

=Source: Bloomberg, SEB

= Relative value, Telecom

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Relative value, TeliaSonera vs. Telenor

= =

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

01-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 02-Mar 17-Mar 01-Apr 16-Apr 01-May 16-May 31-May

Telenor 29 May 2017 TeliaSonera 17 Mar 2017 =Source: Markit, SEB

16


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=

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==

Relative value, Nordic Telecoms

= =

Nokia

Ericsson

Telenor

TeliaSonera

TeliaSonera

TelenorTeliaSonera

Elisa

Nokia

Ericsson

Telenor TeliaSonera

Elisa

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Years-to-maturity

ASWspread

=Source: Markit, SEB

17


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=

Nordic CDS and bond recommendations

= f==~=~==~~=~==~=~====~=~==I===~===~====p~~==s~~K=d==~=~=====~=~=~===~=~J~J=~~======I==~==~=~=~=~======k==~=~=~=~===`ap====~==K=b~==~==~=~=~~================~=~~I=~=~=I=~~K==

==

Nordic CDS recommendations

= = 5-year CDSCONSUMERS Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m RecommendationCarlsberg 104 116 110 5 25 13 Neutral

Electrolux 68 73 70 -5 7 -5 Neutral

SCA 84 91 87 0 17 4 Buy protection

Swedish Match 96 104 100 12 22 15 Neutral

INDUSTRIALS Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

ABB 68 76 72 4 22 17 Neutral

Assa Abloy 63 73 68 9 16 11 Neutral

Atlas Copco 66 72 69 12 17 11 Neutral

Investor 82 89 85 8 13 11 Sell protection

Metso 143 154 149 0 39 40 Neutral

Scania 90 95 93 2 13 2 Neutral

Securitas 71 78 74 2 11 9 Neutral

SKF 66 75 70 4 10 6 Neutral

Volvo 225 235 230 16 45 10 NeutralTELECOMS Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

Ericsson 95 100 98 2 8 -1 Neutral

Nokia 72 76 74 8 24 16 Neutral

Telenor 82 87 85 3 4 3 Neutral

TeliaSonera 55 60 57 0 3 8 Neutral

UTILITIES & ENERGY Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

DONG 82 87 85 6 13 9 Neutral

Fortum 57 60 58 2 9 7 Neutral

Statoil 72 79 75 17 26 21 Neutral

Vattenfall 65 70 67 3 11 8 Neutral

CROSSOVER Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

FS Funding 650 700 675 - - - Neutral

ISS 255 285 270 7 35 40 Neutral

NTC 320 350 335 -10 -50 -80 Neutral

TDC 195 215 205 14 52 62 NeutralStora Enso 315 335 325 -32 16 -48 Neutral

UPM-Kymmene 288 300 294 10 38 -30 Neutral

UP FRONT TRADING Bid Ask +bps running Recommendation

M-real 8 10 500 Sell protection

Norske Skog 25 27 500 Buy protection

SAS 10 12 500 Neutral


18


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= Nordic bond recommendations

= =BONDS Recommendation

CONSUMERS Cpn Maturity Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Weight

Swedish Match 4.625 28/06/2013 82 70 76 5 -13 -21 Marketweight

Carlsberg 6 28/05/2014 109 93 101 20 9 -8 Marketweight

INDUSTRIALS Cpn Maturity Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommend

Metso 5.125 21/11/2011 106 79 92 17 13 14 Marketweight

ABB 6.5 30/11/2011 50 30 40 18 10 12 MarketweightInvestor 6.125 05/03/2012 42 28 35 24 8 8 Marketweight

Volvo 7.875 01/10/2012 204 175 190 33 27 -53 Overweight

Securitas 6.5 02/04/2013 76 64 70 9 -5 -8 Marketweight

ABB 4.625 06/06/2013 58 46 52 11 11 11 Marketweight

SKF 4.25 13/12/2013 76 64 70 0 -1 -15 Marketweight

Sandvik 6.875 25/02/2014 101 89 95 -5 -19 -26 Marketweight

Volvo 9.875 27/02/2014 237 214 225 29 28 -52 Marketweight

Atlas Copco 4.75 05/06/2014 75 59 67 14 13 7 Marketweight

Metso 7.25 10/06/2014 190 168 179 25 23 -10 Marketweight

Maersk 4.875 30/10/2014 140 134 137 13 -1 -42 Marketweight

Vestas 4.625 23/03/2015 192 183 188 -3 -4 22 Overweight

Investor 4.00 14/03/2016 82 71 76 -1 -8 -7 Marketweight

Volvo 5.00 31/05/2017 236 218 227 15 26 -29 Marketweight

Investor 4.88 18/11/2021 107 97 102 1 5 2 Underweight

TELECOMS Cpn Maturity Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

TeliaSonera 3.625 09/05/2012 34 11 23 16 -2 -4 Marketweight

Telenor 5.875 05/12/2012 29 17 23 26 12 -7 Underweight

Ericsson 5 24/06/2013 85 73 79 26 5 -6 Marketweight

Nokia 5.5 04/02/2014 53 41 47 5 6 -4 Marketweight

Elisa 4.75 03/03/2014 142 126 134 5 0 1 Marketweight


Telenor 4.5 28/03/2014 45 30 38 6 -11 -21 Underweight


TeliaSonera 4.75 07/03/2017 80 69 75 7 0 1 Marketweight

Telenor 4.875 29/05/2017 69 55 62 4 -16 -23 Underweight

Ericsson 5.375 27/06/2017 126 116 121 4 -3 -15 Overweight

Nokia 6.75 04/02/2019 108 92 100 -3 -2 -6 Marketweight

UTILITIES & ENERGY Cpn Maturity Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

DONG 3.5 29/06/2012 43 32 38 13 -7 -19 Marketweight

Vattenfall 4.125 18/03/2013 43 32 37 22 6 10 Marketweight

Fortum 5 19/11/2013 43 31 37 20 2 0 Marketweight

Vattenfall 5.75 05/12/2013 45 33 39 9 -2 -5 Marketweight

Fortum 4.625 20/03/2014 53 41 47 18 -2 0 Marketweight

DONG 4.875 07/05/2014 62 51 57 6 -13 -23 Marketweight


Statkraft 5.5 02/04/2015 64 48 56 -5 -22 -22 Marketweight

Statoil 4.375 11/03/2015 48 30 39 17 9 6 Underweight

Vattenfall 5.25 17/03/2016 71 58 64 8 -3 6 Marketweight

Statkraft 4.625 22/09/2017 80 64 72 -1 -14 -6 Marketweight

Fortum 4.5 20/06/2016 61 50 55 16 -5 2 Marketweight

TVO 6 27/06/2016 132 116 124 3 -5 -5 Overweight

Vattenfall 5 18/06/2018 78 66 72 19 24 31 Underweight


Fortum 6 20/03/2019 92 81 86 10 4 10 Marketweight

Statkraft 6.625 02/04/2019 105 89 97 2 -7 -8 Marketweight

DONG 6.5 07/05/2019 114 103 108 5 -1 1 Marketweight

Statoil 5.625 11/03/2021 60 45 52 3 -4 1 Marketweight


Vattenfall 5.375 29/04/2024 100 79 90 12 29 33 Underweight

HIGH-YIELD Cpn Maturity Bid Ask Mid 1d 1w 1m Recommendation

UPM-Kymmene 6.125 23/01/2012 201 167 184 24 30 18 Marketweight

TDC 6.5 19/04/2012 280 227 254 36 79 3 Marketweight

M-real 9.25 01/04/2013 788 743 765 66 146 -128 Overweight

Stora Enso 5.125 23/06/2014 310 281 296 -4 39 -21 Marketweight

ISS 4.5 08/12/2014 395 383 389 8 37 -46 Marketweight

NTC 8.25 01/05/2016 565 560 563 39 404 172 Marketweight

FS Funding 8.875 15/05/2016 760 740 750 - - - Marketweight

Norske Skog 7 26/06/2017 1049 1006 1028 78 154 123 Underweight

Asset swap ASW mid


=

19


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=

Primary market activity= EUR: Muted primary activity in May

= a=======~==~=~==~==~=~=~==bro=SP=~==bro=NST===~==~=~K=f=j~I=~=~=~=~========bro=OKP====~==bro=PQ==j~=OMMVK=f=~I===~=~==~==j~K=b=~~=~=~====~===~====~====^=~=====j~K=f==~=~==j~I==bro=N=~===~~===~==~====

a=_~=~====K=

= ^=====~====~=~=~==~==~=~==~====J=~=~=~====K=`I==~==~=~=K=l===~I=~~==~===~~=~=~==~=~====I===~~~=====~=K=j~===~~=~=~=~=~==~=~==~===~====~=K=q======~~==~======~~~K=f=====gI==~=~=~==~=~==a=_~I=^=i=~=o~=c=

a=c~=~~===~==K=q=~====~===~==OMMU===~==J===~===~=~=~===~=r=~=q===~==K=

==

EUR non-financial issuance

= =

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YTD

EURbn

=Source: SEB, Bloomberg

20


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= a==~=~=~===ev==~=~I============~=K=`==~=~==~===~==OMMUI===ev=~=========OMNMK=q=~I=ev=~=~===========j~====K=p=~==~I=~=====~======K=^==~=I=___J~==~=~==QTB==~=~=~=~=^J====ORBK=

==

HY non-financial issuance

= =

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

YTD

EURbn


Issuance by sector (Jan May 2010) Issuance by rating category (Jan May 2010)

Utilities

15%

Industrials14%Basic materials

2%

Auto16%

Retail6%

Other

20%

Pharma2%

Telecom15%

Consumer

7%

Oil&Gas3%

BBB47%

High Yield28%

A25%

Source: SEB, Bloomberg Source: SEB, Bloomberg. *High yield includes non-rated issues

21


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= f==I=I==~=~=~===~===~=~=~==NRBI=NRB=~=NQBI====K=cI===~==~=~=====RJ~==~=~==NVB=====~==~K=kI==TJ=~=UJ~==~==I==~==PSB==~K=q=NMJ=NOJ~===ONB==~==~==~K===

= d=~I===~~=~=====~=~=K=eI==~==~=~=~=J==~====I====~=~=~=~I====~==~~=======~=~~=~K=

Low Nordic Eurobond issuance so far this year

= a=OMMVI=~====b====k=~==OT=~====~=~===~=bro=OMK=p=~==~I=s~=~==bro=SMM==~=RJ~===q~p~==~=bro=ORM=~==~==~==OMONK=t=======~===~=

s~~I=cI=q~p~=~=q=====~I=~===k====~==~==OMMVK=

The SEK corporate bond market

f==~==~=~=~===~=~=~=~=pbh=PORJPTRK=q=~====pbh==~=~==b=~==~=====~=~===~=~==~K=q=~====pbh=~==~==~=~=~==NJR=~I====~~=~=~==~K=q==~===~=====~=~==K=

22


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==

SEK Total issuance 2008-2009 and YTD 2010

= =

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2008 2009 2010 YTD

MSEK

Corporates Financials Gov./Muni. owned Gov. guaranteed


SEK primary market activity

^=~====b=~======pbh==~=~=====~========~=k`n=~K=f==I===~=

~=~=~========~=~=J=~=~X=~====~====~=~==~=K=^=~===~==~==~==j~======K=l===~=~===~=====~==~===~=====~=K=q=~=~=======j~=PN==~===PUB==pbh=RTKV=~==pbh=VPKS===~==~=~K=o~==~=~=====~=K

= i=~=~I==~=~==~~I=~===

RRB==~=~K=p=~==~I=~~====~~===pbh===NTB==pbh=PNKU=~==OMMVK=^=~==QP=~~===~==PR===~==~=~K=q=~I=PMB===QP=~~===Jk=~=~==PQB=~=~I=~==~=OB=~JJ~=~==pbh=K===

= `~=~=~=~=====~==~==PNB==g~~Jj~==pbh=TKM=~==pbh=NMKO=~=~I==p~~==~=====~=pbh=PKMK=a=g~~Jj~I===NP==~==NR=

~=~K==

23


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==

SEK Total Monthly issuance

= =

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Januar

y

Februar

y

March

April

M

ay

Jun

e

J

uly

Augus

t

Septem

ber

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

2008 2009 2010 YTD


= d=~=~==~===VB==pbh=NTKUK=q==QR=I===UO===~==~=~K=

= pbh=~===~=~=~==~=====~I=====j~K=eI=~===b==~=~=~=K====

24


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NOK: Increasingly negative international sentiment impacts primary activity

a======~==~I=vqa=OMNM=~==~=~=~=klh=NV=~=====~=~K=pI=~===~====

m_~I=j~=e~=~=c==OMNM=E~=klh=RKPFI=vqa====~=QRBK=t=====~~===~=~===k~==~I=~====~=====K=q==~==~==~===~==~=~=~~====~===p==K=t==~=~~=JI======~=====~==~==klh=~=~==~===^=~=~K=

NOK corporate bond issuance - by year NOK corporate bond issuance by rating

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD'10

NOKm

Investment Grade High Yield

B14 %

other34 %

A17 %

BB24 %

BBB11 %

Source: SEB Source: SEB

a===I=ev==~==~=~=~I===~=TMB==~=~===~JK=b==I=~=~==~==SMBK=q======~=~I==fd=~=~=~==eNJMVK=f===~=~=E=FI==~===~=~==_hh=Eklh=NKVFI=^=a=Eklh=NKRF=~=p=a=C=m=Eklh=NKPRFK=_=I=l=~=a=

===~===~==QMB==~=~I===r=EOPBF=~=pLs=ENRBFK=

25


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26

Spread levels on IG primary NOK issues in 2010 Spread levels on HY primary NOK issues in 2010

BKK

Hafslund

Agder Energi

Sogn og FjordaneEnergi

Lyse Energi

stfold Energi

Norgesgruppen

-

25

50

75

100

125

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Years to maturity

Spread(bps)

Color Group

Skeie Drilling &Production

J.Lauritzen

Aker Drilling / AKER

Eltek

STX Europe

Selvaag GruppenNorwegian Property

Rem Offshore

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Years to maturity

Spread(bps)

8

Source: SEB Source: SEB

= NOK corporate credit spread development

_~=~=~=~=~===~===j~==~=~I=~=~==~=====~K=mI=~==~=~=~=====~==~=~=K=l==~=pqu=b==~===~=~=~=~=====~==~=E=~=~FK=

f==klh=~=~I=~==~=====~===~I=~===~=~=K=

eI=~=====~=~=I=~===ev=K==

^==_=~~I=~=~===k~=~====~===~==nNJNM=K=eI=~=~====~=~======~=~==~K=^=~=I=nN====~~==~====~=~=I===~=~=~=====~======~=K=

Norwegian Savings Banks Good results

k~=~===~===~====~=~=~==OMMVK=q====~===~D=cu=~=~~=~=~I===~===~===~K=k==~=klh=RKR==OMMV=EKK=MKQB===~FI=~=~==klh=QKP==OMMU====~=~==J==I=~=~=~=~=~=~K=d===~===~===~=~=~I=~==~=~=~=~=====K=~~=I====~==

====~K==


27/48


a====~=~I==~=~=~=~=~=~==pb_=k~=p~=_~=o=OMNMI=~=~====~=~=~=b~=

~K=

NOK bank spreads vs. EUR CDS spreads New primary NOK bank bonds

0

50

100

150

200

250

May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10

Senior Fin 5yr "kystbanker" NOK bonds

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD'10

NOKm

Source: SEB, Markit Source: SEB, Stamdata

= NOK credit outlook

d=~=~=~==~==~~==~==~I======~=~===~=k`n======~===eOJNMK=q==~===========~===~~=~=~===~K=^=~=I=

~===~======k~==~==K=pI=~=~==~=I=========~=~~=~~==I============~K===

27


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Macro economic trendsNordics best in test, exaggerated fears about Euro zone double dip

j~=~==~=====

==b=~==~========~=~=====~=bK=q======~==~=====b=~I=~~==mffdp=K=eI==~===~====~=~===~=====~====bjr=damK=t======~==~==~=MKQJMKR=~==~~==~=dam====b===OMNMLNNK=t=~=~==~=~~==~==~=~=~==I==~====~~K=

t=~=~===NMB=~=======~==~==~=MKS=~===dam===OMNM=~=NKN=~===OMNNK=`I=====bjr=dam====~=~=~=~=~===~=K=l~I==~===~=~=====b~===~=I=~====~======~==~=~=~I==~==rp=~=~=~====^~K==

==

EUR effective exchange rate

= =

Jan

10

Feb Mar Apr May Jun

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

Index

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

=Source: SEB, Ecowin

28


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==

Estimated impact of a 10% euro depreciation

= =Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Euro area

GDP level 0.6% 1.1% 1.6%

Inflation 0.2% 0.6% 0.8%

United States

GDP level 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%

Inflation -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% =

Source: SEB

q=====k==~==p=~=k~=~====~======~===~=~==K=`I=k======

=~~=~==b=====~I===~=~=~=~~=I===~~==~==K==

==

Nordic economic fundamentals

= =Sweden Norway

bn 304 289

% of EMU 3.4% 3.2%

% of EU 2.6% 2.4%

bn 129 0

% of GDP 42% 0.0%

bn -2 28

% of GDP -0.5% 10%

bn 22 40

% of GDP 7% 14%

Assets bn 726 658

% of GDP 239% 228%

Liab. bn 746 489

% of GDP 245% 169%

Net. bn -20 169

% of GDP -7% 58%

AAA AAA

stable stable

International

investment

position

Sovereign rating S&P

GDP

Public debt

Budget balance

Current account

balance

=Source: SEB, Ecowin

Swedish growth improving=

q=p=~=~=~========~K=b=~====~====~~==~=~=~===~==K=c~====~=~=~=~=~====nN=dam==EPKMB=LF====~=~~K=k=~=~====~====~=~==~==~====~=~~~==~==~==^~=~===~=K=^===p=~~==

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=~=~===~======~=~====~=======_~=~K===

Riksbank to start hiking in July

^=~=======~===p==o~===~===~==gK=t=~=~=~=~====eO=~===~==NKORB===~=K=^=~====~====~=~====~===~===

K=q=pbh=====~~=========~=====p=~=~===~=~===~=~=K=bjrK==

= = Norges Bank continues to hike, but slowly=

= = k=_~=~=~~=~==~=====k~====~==~==~=~==

=~K=pI===~====~=~=klh==k~=~=~=====~======~=======~==E=~=OKRB===~=FK=^==~==

~=~=~=K=bjrI===~===~==k~=~~====klh=~~=K=broK=p====klh==~=~~==pbhK==

= = Bottom line

= = t=~=K=^~=~=~====~=====rp=~==~====~===~K=t=~==~=~=~=~=~=~=b~==~=~~==~======~==~=~EF=K=l~I===~=~=QKTB=~=dam===OMNMLNNK=t=k=~~=~~=~I=k=~=====~===K=q=p=o~=~===

=g=~===~==NKORB=~=broLpbh==VKMM======~K==p===~===~====~I====~==~=~~=~~K=t===p=lju==~=NNRM==~=K===

=

30


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= Credit quality trendsImproving overall credit quality trends=

= b~==~====k=~==

=~==~=~=~====I==~==K=e==~=~=~=~=~===~===K=o==~==bjr==~==~~=~==~~==~=~==~===~==~I=~===

==~=pb_=c~~=l=p===SJNQ=j~K=^==p=`clI===~=~==~=====c~K=`=~=~=~=~=~=~=~==^~===K=j=~===~=~=~==~==

OMNM=~=K=p==~==~=QRK==

Industrial order intake, % change y-o-y Truck order intake, % change y-o-y

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

ABB Atlas Copco Sandvik

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

Scania Volvo

2068%

Source: SEB, company interim reports Source: SEB, company interim reports

= a===~=p=~=~===~I===~~=~==~===K=f=~I===PN=k=~===~I==NP=====nNJNM=~==nNJMVK=k~I=~==k============

=~=~=====K=l===OS=~=E~I==C=~I==~=FI====~===nNJNMK===

= ^==~=I=NV===~===b_fqa ==~=I==OP=~===b_fqa^=~K=p~I=====I========~==~==b_fqa^=~K==

31


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= f~I=~===~=~I======~===~=~==b_fqa^=~I====~=~=^__===~=====K=q==~=~==~=======OMMVI=========~===J===K===

Key credit metrics, Nordic corporates

SEB view

FY 2009 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 FY 2009 Q1 2009 Q1 2010

ABB 16.5% 14.0% 13.9% -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 A/StableAssa Abloy 17.3% 16.7% 18.4% 1.8 2.3 1.9 A-/Stable

Atlas Copco 18.8% 18.2% 20.7% 1.0 1.4 0.9 A/Stable

Autoliv 7.9% 0.4% 15.6% 1.9 2.2 1.1 BBB/StableElectrolux 8.0% 3.5% 8.6% 0.4 2.5 0.3 BBB/PosMetso 8.7% 7.5% 9.7% 2.4 1.7 2.5 BBB/Neg

Norsk Hydro 3.2% -4.7% 9.4% -0.2 0.0 0.2 BBB/Neg

Sandvik 8.2% 6.4% 16.6% 5.7 2.9 3.9 BBB+/Neg

Scania 8.7% 7.8% 17.0% 1.7 1.0 0.9 A-/NegSKF 10.8% 9.2% 15.7% 2.0 1.8 1.7 BBB+/Pos

Volvo -1.1% -1.7% 9.9% -21.0 2.8 11.0 BBB/StableHolmen 16.3% 16.5% 14.0% 2.0 3.0 2.0 BBB/Neg

M-real 1.9% -2.1% 10.1% 22.3 15.4 9.1 B-/Stable

Norske Skog 10.7% 9.6% 6.2% 4.9 5.0 5.4 B/NegStora Enso 8.0% 5.5% 10.1% 4.7 4.0 4.4 BB/Stable

UPM 14.0% 6.9% 14.1% 4.1 4.9 3.6 BB/StableElisa 33.8% 32.8% 32.9% 1.5 1.8 1.7 BBB/Stable

Ericsson 17.8% 13.2% 17.0% -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 BBB+/Stable

Nokia 9.5% 5.6% 9.7% -0.8 -0.4 -0.9 A/StableTelenor 30.9% 31.7% 29.6% 0.9 1.4 0.8 A-/Stable

TeliaSonera 35.3% 32.4% 39.6% 1.2 1.4 1.2 A-Stable

Carlsberg 22.1% 14.6% 15.1% 2.8 4.0 2.9 BBB-/StableSAS 2.2% -4.4% -2.2% 10.5 7.8 20.0 B/NegSCA 15.0% 13.6% 15.1% 2.6 3.4 2.5 BBB+/Stable

Securitas 29.7% 6.7% 7.0% 0.5 2.3 0.5 BBB+/Stable

Swedish Match 27.1% 26.2% 26.0% 2.1 1.9 2.1 BBB/Stable

DONG 18.0% 17.0% 26.8% 3.6 1.8 2.9 BBB+/StableFortum 42.2% 44.2% 44.2% 2.6 2.4 2.4 A-/StableStatkraft 50.5% 57.4% 56.4% 3.1 2.3 2.3 BBB+/Stable

StatoilHydro 37.7% 41.4% 39.1% 0.6 0.3 0.4 AA-/Stable

Vattenfall 24.7% 31.7% 21.8% 3.4 1.8 3.8 A-/Stable

Average all 17.6% 15.3% 18.7% 3.4 3.0 2.9

Average Industrials 9.7% 7.3% 13.9% 1.9 2.0 2.5Average Pulp & Paper 10.2% 7.3% 10.9% 7.6 6.5 4.9

Average Telecom 25.5% 23.1% 25.8% 1.2 1.5 1.2

Average Other 19.2% 11.3% 12.2% 3.7 3.9 5.6Average Utilities 34.6% 38.3% 37.6% 2.7 1.7 2.4

EBITDA margin Net debt to EBITDA

=Source: SEB

= f===~==~===OMMVI=~=~===~~=====JI===~~===~==K=i~=~=~=~=~~====~=E===~~=~=F==~~=~==OTBK=f~====~~====~=~~==PNBI==j=EJRRBF=~=^=EJRPBF===K==

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= q====nNJNMI==~~===k=~=E=F===~=~~==ONB=~==nNJMVK=q=~===~==^~=^=EJTPBF=~=p~=EJSVBFK=

= ^==PN=j~=OMNMI=ON====PP=k=~===~=~======~==~==nNJMVK=d=~=====~I==NU===PN=k=~======b_fqa^=~==nNJNM=~==nNJMVK=q==I==~=~===~~=I======~==K=^==~==~==~=~I=~====~~==I=~===~==s~~I=~=~=~K=

*Average net debt to EBITDA *Average capex to sales

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2007 2008 2009 Q1 20100.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2007 2008 2009 Q1 2010

Source: SEB, *Average of 28 Nordic companies, excluding companies in net cash position

or with negative EBITDASource: SEB, *Average of 32 Nordic corporates

Negative ratings outlooks still common

q===~=~=~===~==~=~=~~~===K=t===~==~~=======~===~=K=e===~K=l==PN=~=k=~==I=NO==~=~=~====j==pCmK=q=

==~====~==~=~===~==~==~~=~=~~=~K=c==~I=~====~===~===~=~===~=~=~==~~=K=l==~I=k=eI======~K==

33


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Increasing working capital and capex will reduce cash flows

a=~=~===~I=~=~=~==~===OMMVI=~=~====~=~~====~~==~===K=^==~=

~===~~======~=~===~~I==~~===~K=b====~I==~~====~==~==~==~==~=~==~=~======~===~~=K==

f=~I=~===~I=~=~==~~==~=~K=t=~=~===nNJNMI=====~~=~======~K=q=====~=~==~I==~==~~==K==^=====~==~====~=~=~==~=~==OMNMK=

Fewer acquisitions =

q~====~=~=~=======OMNMI==~=~=~=~=~=~=====K=j~=~=~===~~==~=~=~=~===~===~========~K=eI====~=~=~~=~=~=~=~K=

t=NO===~~=jC^==~==~===~==k=^~I=====^=~=j~K=d=~=~===I=~==~~=~======~~==~=~=~K=

==

M&A volumes (12 months rolling)

= =

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Global North America Western Europe =Source: Bloomberg

34


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Austerity measures will impact growth

m~~====I=~===~===~===dI=mI=f=~=p~===~=~=~~K=n==~===~===~==

==~====~=~==K=

^====~=~===~===k=`=n~I==NM=j~=OMNMI=b=~===~=~===k=~I=~===QMJVMB==~=E~~W=SOBF=====~K=l~====~===bjr===~=~=~==J=K=q===~==~=~===~=~===~==~====~==~==~~==~=====~K=

Emerging markets to drive growth=

t===~===~===k=~~==I==~===~==~=====OMNMK=fI==~=~==~=~~=~==~=~=~==~K=b===~=====~==k=~=~=~===~~=~==~=b=~==rpK=f==I====~~==~==~=~=======OMNMK=

==

Geographical exposure by industry

= =

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Industrials Pulp and Paper Telecomequipment

Telecomoperators

Utilities, Oil andGas

Europe North America South America Asia & Australia Africa & Middle East Other

Source: SEB

=

35


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=

Sector viewsIndustrials - surprisingly resilient=

^=~=~=~=~==~====~=~K=nNJNM======~=~===~=~==K=^=k=~===~I===~~=s=~=p~~I=~== =~=~==k=e=====nNJNMK=f===~I=~==~==~=~=========~==~K= I=p~I=

s=~=k=e=~==~=~===~=K=d~===~=~=~=====I====~==~=s=~=

^=~=~====~K==

q=~=~==~=~=====~=~=====nNJMVI====b=E=TRBF=~=^~=`=~=p~~=E===QRBFK=f====I=~=~=~=b_fqa^=====~====K=f=nNJNM=I==~======RMB==~===~=~==vbJMVK===

EBITDA margins, Nordic Industrials Net debt to EBITDA, Nordic Industrials

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

ABB Assa Abloy Atlas Copco Metso Sandvik SKF

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

ABB Assa Abloy Atlas Copco Metso Sandvik SKF

2009 Q1 2010

Source: Company reports, SEB Source: Company reports, SEB

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EBITDA margins, Consumer and other Net debt to EBITDA, Consumer & other

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

Carlsberg Securitas Swedish Match Electrolux

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Carlsberg Securitas Swedish Match Electrolux

2009 Q1 2010


Oil & Gas: Increased discrepancy among oil majors

= d======d==j=~=~=~=~I====~==~=~=~=~=~===~=~=~===~==K=

= f=j~I=~=b~==~==~=^^=~===àp=====~==QRJRMK=r=~=j~I===~===~==I= ======~=~===~=~=~=~=~=~==~=àp=K=pI=~===I===

~=~===~=~I=====_mI=======d==j===~K=c==~I==j=~=pCm=~=~===~=====^~O=~=^^JI=~=~===~==~=~=~=K=q=~===~==

==~~=~==_m=~==~==~~=~==~I====~==_mD==~==~=~~=~=~======~~K=t==_m=R=àp=~=~=HOPMI==~==~~===~=======~===E==fd=~=evFK=

= _m===~=~==~==~=rpa=NKPI=======I=~I===I=~==d=~I=~=~=~=~=K=_m=~=~====~==~==~==~=~=~~===K=Î=====~~==~===rp==~=~==~==~==~=~=

=_m=~===~=~====d==jK=c=I==rp===~====~==~===~===~==^~~I=~==

=~=~I=~=~=~=====J~===~====K=f=~I=PP==~====

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~===~I==p~ =====K=p~=~==~==~===~====klh=~=~K=e====p~==I====~==_m=~=~=====J~===~=~====E=~===iI=k~K=f==~I==~===p~=~===

==~=~=~=~==K=

= d=======nOJNM=~=====~=~I=~=~==~==~======nOJMV=K=t==~=====~=~~=I====~=~K=q=~=~==~=~===~=~==bkf==pCmI====~====~==~~==lb`a=====~=~=K=

= q=I==~======~=~==~=====~I=~=========`ap=~=~======~====K=t==p~=====I===~==~==~==_mI=~==~~=========~=~=~K=

=Oil majors - 5yr CDS development

= =

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10

StatoilHydro Aa2/AA- BP Aa2/AA- ENI Aa2/A+ Total Aa1/AA

Source: Markit, SEB

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= = Pulp & paper Mixed operating environment

= q=~=====~=~==~=====~~=~====~=~=~=~====K=k==~==~=

======~I====~==k=p=~=eK=m~~==~=====p~=bI=jJ~=~=p`^K=eI======~=~=~=~====~===K=o~=~~==~=~=~==~=====~~=~==~~~====`~=~~=~ =`=~I==~=~=K=c=jJ~I=p~=b=~=rmjI=~====~=~===nNK=eI=k=p=~=e==~=~=~====

==~=I=~=p`^====K==

EBITDA margins, Pulp and paper Net debt to EBITDA, Pulp and paper

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

Holmen M-real Norske Skog SCA Stora Enso UPM

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Holmen Norske Skog SCA Stora Enso UPM

2009 Q1-10


= Cash flow generation vital =

= q===~====~==~==~~=~==~==~====~~K=`=====~=~=~===~~=

=~=~K=t===~~=======OMMVI===~====~K=

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= Slightly brighter outlook=

= t=~=~==~===p`Î=p~=b=~=jJ~==OMNM====~=~==~~I===K=t==k=p=~=e===~=

~=~=~=~==~====~=b~=~=~=I====~K=t==rmj==========~=~=

===I==~=~=~=~=K=t==~==p`Î=p~=bI=rmj=~=jJ~===~~K=

Newsprint prices Pulp and recovered paper prices

400

450

500

550

600

650

Jun-01 Jul-02 Sep-03 Nov-04 Jan-06 Mar-07 Apr-08 Jun-09

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Newsprint (EUR/tonne) Newsprint (USD/tonne)

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Apr-04 Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Jan-10

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Pulp (NBSK) Recovered paper

Source: FOEX, SEB Source: FOEX, SEB

Shipping/ Offshore

= f==I===~==~=~==~===~===~~==~==~===OMMULMVK=f=~~I==`~~==E==~I==~I=~I=~=~=~F=~=~~=rpa=NPIUMML~===~==I==~=~=K=cI======~==~=~=~===~I==~==~=~=~==~===

=nNJNMK=c=~I= m=j=j~=E^mjF=`~===~=nNJNM===ahh=VMN=~==~===ahh=PKP==nNJMVK=q==~~==~==~~===`~~==~~=rpa=NSIVMML~==~==~K==

= `====I= ap====~==~=~====~~==~==^mj=QKUTRB=bro==~=~==NUM=~=~==lJMV==NPM==^K=o~===~=~=p~=R=àp=~===f~==~==~I==^mj=bro=

=~=====_=`=fd===l=~=~K==

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= eI==j~I======mffd==~~=~~=~==~=~===~==I====`ap====~==~=~=~==^mj=QKUTRB==~K====

= q==~====~=~==~==

=======~~=~=====~K=`~=======~==NPO=K=a====~=~=~==~==~~===I==~=~~==~==~==~=~~=~K=t=========~==nOJNMI==~==~========~~=~=~~=~===~~K=

5yr CDS Shipping/ Offshore APMM 4.875% 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1 050

1 200

1 350

1 500

Transocean (Baa2/BBB+) (LHS) Diamond Offshore (Baa1/ A-) (LHS) Pride Intl (Ba1/BBB-) (LHS)

Stena (not rated) (RHS) ITRX XO %yr CDS (RHS)

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

23-Oct 4-Dec 20-Jan 3-Mar 14-Apr 26-May

m/sspread

Source: SEB, Bloomberg, Moodys, S&P Source: SEB, Markit, Moodys

= Telecom operators raised guidance and stable credit quality outlook

= t=~=~==~====~=~=~=~=~~======~=k=`=n~==j~K=j=~=~==~===~======~K=t======I=~=I======~I=~==~==I=~==~===^~=~=j=K=q~p~=~=

q=~==~===~===~==b~=~==~K=^==~==~====~=~===_~=~~I=~===~=~~=I======~==K=

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EBITDA margins, Nordic Telecoms Net debt to EBITDA, Nordic Telecoms

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

Elisa Ericsson Nokia Telenor TeliaSonera

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Elisa Ericsson Nokia Telenor TeliaSonera

2009 Q1 2010


= q=~========~=====fm=I=~======~==~=~=~=~==~=K=d==fm==~=~=

===~==~=~I====~=~==~====pK=

= l~==~=~=~=~=~=~====~==~K=t====~==~==q=====~======f~K=t===~=~====q==~=====~===I=~=

=~==~K=q===~=~==~==~=K=`====OMMUJMV====~===nNJNMK=t==~==~~=~===~====~=~==~I=~=~I======~~===I=~==qK==

= q==~~=~==~==~=K=t===~==~~======K=d===~I==~=~==~===~=~====~=I=~==

~====~==~==~==~=EKK=`~=~=f~FK=o~==I=k~=====~=====~==~==~~=====K=^I===~=~=~======J=~=J=~=K=f=~I=~=~=p~=P=~=J==~=~==JK=b=~====~===~=~=====~I=~===~K=t======~=~K=m~=~==~===~=

~====~=J=~=======~======K=

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= `=~I====~=~=~=~I=~===OMMVK=_=b=~=k~====~~==~=K=t=~=~=~===b=~=~==~=====~K==

= = Utilities dull outlook

= = q=======nNJNM======~=~==~==~=~~==pI======k====K=eI=======~==~===~===~==~=====~K=d=~======~=~====~======JK=t====~====OMMU===OMNO===~=~===~=~==~=K=

EBITDA margins, Nordic utilities Net debt to EBITDA, Nordic utilities

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

DONG Fortum Statkraft StatoilHydro Vattenfall

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

DONG Fortum Statkraft StatoilHydro Vattenfall

2009 Q1 2010


= = l~=~==~===s~~=~=c=~====~=~=a==~=

p~~=~=~=~=~==nNJMVK=t===~=~==~==~===~=====~~==~==~=K=f==J=====~====~~==

=~====~~==OMLOMLOM=K=

c=~=s~~=======~~======~K=`~==nQJMVI=cI=p~~=~=a===~==nNJNM==

s~~==~=~====b_fqa^=~=~K=`=~========~I==~=~====~~K=

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==

Nord Pool Spot average system price

= =

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00Ja

n

00Sep

01May

02Ja

n

02Sep

03May

04Ja

n

04Sep

05May

06Ja

n

06Sep

07May

08Ja

n

08Sep

09May

10Ja

n

EUR/MWh

Average system price =Source: SEB, Nordpool

=

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=

SEB Financial Officers IndexIncreasing optimism despite sovereign unrest

pb_=c~~=l=f==~==~==~==j~=OMMS=~=~==~=TM==p=~=~K=q===~===~~====~I=I=====~==~I=~~=I=~==~=~=~~=K=

= pb_=c~~=l=f==j~==~=~=~=SOI===SM==c~K=l===~=~=p=~~==~=~=~==~=~===p==~=~~=~=K=^==p=`clI===~=~==~====

=c~K=`=~=~=~=~=~=~=~==^~===K==

= ^=~==~~====~====~==~=======~K==

= c==~J=~=~=~=~=====~K=l===========pI=~=~===c~K==

= c~~==~=~==~=====~=~~K=t====~~====~===c~I=NQB==~===~=~=~K=`~=~===~=~=~I====~==~=~K=

==

SEB Financial Officers index

= =

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Index value Business

climate

Financial

position

Lending

willingness

Counterparty

risk

Credit

spreads=

Source: SEB. Grey columns represent the corresponding SEBs Financial Officers Indices (November 2009 & February 2010)

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=

Quarterly report dates=

Company Q2-10

DnB NOR 09-Jul

Investor AB 13-Jul

SEB 13-Jul

Specialfastigheter 13-Jul

SKF 15-Jul

Hafslund 15-Jul

Elisa 16-Jul

Fortum 16-Jul

Atlas Copco 16-Jul

Electrolux 19-Jul

TeliaSonera 20-Jul

Husqvarna 20-Jul

Handelsbanken 20-Jul

Sandvik 20-Jul

SCA 21-Jul

Nordea 21-Jul

Swedish Match 21-Jul

Telenor 21-Jul

Nokia 22-Jul

Stora Enso 22-Jul

ABB 22-Jul

Volvo 22-Jul

Swedbank 22-JulNote: Dates are subject to the most recent information released=

Company Q2-10

Ericsson 23-Jul

Autoliv 23-Jul

Scania 23-Jul

Skanska 23-Jul

Norsk Hydro 27-Jul

Assa Abloy 28-Jul

Metso 29-Jul

Vattenfall 29-Jul

Statoil 29-Jul

UPM-Kymmene 03-Aug

M-real 05-Aug

Norske Skog 05-Aug

Securitas 06-Aug

Danske Bank 10-Aug

Holmen 11-Aug

TDC 13-Aug

Carlsberg 17-Aug

SAS 18-Aug

Vestas 18-Aug

Statkraft 19-Aug

Dong 19-Aug

Vasakronan 24-Aug

LF Bank 25-Aug =

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SEB:s Nordic Credit Quarterly June 2010

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Transcript of SEB:s Nordic Credit Quarterly June 2010