Ecorub AB Annual Report 2008 - Net loss for the year 1,4 million Swedish krona
SEB report: Swedish krona seen at 9 per euro end 2010
Transcript of SEB report: Swedish krona seen at 9 per euro end 2010
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8/14/2019 SEB report: Swedish krona seen at 9 per euro end 2010
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==
=
=You can also find our research materials at our website: www.mb.seb.se. This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only.
Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or
complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained
herein without notice.
==
16 March 2010 =Scandie Views
Swedish assets outperform as EUR/SEK revisits 9.00_= =klh=~= pbh= ~= =~= ~= = = = ~===~= ~= ~= ~K= q= ~= ~= = = = = = ~= ~= = =~=~=======dI=~==~=====~K=_=~=~= === ~==~==~K=^========~==========~~==~==~=~====K=q=======~=~~=~===~======K=eI===== = = pbh= = = = = =klh== = ~= = ~= ~= K=t==~==pbh==~==~=~==~==K=q=klh===~==~===K=q=~=~==o~I==~=~=p==~======~=~==broLpbh=~=VKQR==~=K=l====broLpbhI=~=====~I======pbh=~~I==VKMM==~=K=klh=~===~==broLklh=~~=~=~===~=~K=f==========p======a~=~======~=~~====k~=~=pK=f~==~=~=~======fph==~~=~K==
Historical SEK positioning
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Apr-99
Nov
-99
Sep-00
Mar-01
Feb
-02
Nov
-02
Okt03
Sep
-04
Dec-05
Nov
-06
Dec-07
Mar-09
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Own company Market
Overweight in SEK
Underweight in SEK
==
Sell NOK/SEK and EUR/SEKa===pbh=I======~~K===eI==klh==~~=~= ~= ~= ~= ~= = = = =~= ~= I= =k= _~= = = ===~=~=K==Buy One-touch 9.00 EUR/SEK 6mths 13%l= ~=~== ~= ~=broLpbh=~= =~==~==VKMM=====K==Buy a double-no-touch 7.70-8.30 EUR/NOK 6mths
c~= ~= ~= = ~= broLklh=~~=~=~=~==~=~====K=t===~=akq=~=ORBK====Buy Swedish CBs vs. Danish non-callablesp=PJQ===E`_F==~=~=~=~=~=~=^pt=~=J==OMJOR=~==a~=J~~K=Sell EUR/ISKt=~~==broLfph====~=~=~= OTM= ~= = = ~= = =E___HL_~~PFK=
Market positioning in NOK
11%
71%
Own positioning Perceived market
positioning
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=
=
=
Forecasts and contacts 2
SEK investor survey 3Swedish macro and fixed income 5
SEK outlook 8
Swedish equity market 11
NOK investor survey 12
Norwegian macro and fixed income 14
NOK outlook 17
Norwegian equity market 20
Denmark 21
Iceland 22
Technical outlook 23
Contents Scandie Views contacts
g~=g~=EbF+46 8 506 23019, [email protected]
`~=e~+46 8 506 23128, [email protected]
`~=^+46 8 506 23029, [email protected]
b~=_+46 8 506 23029, [email protected]
p=_+47 210 08534, [email protected]
g=e~+46 8 506 23167, [email protected]
l=e+46 8 763 8079, [email protected]
q=h~+47 2100 8572, [email protected]
b~=h~+46 8 506 23017, [email protected]
e=j~+46 8 506 23018, [email protected]
a~=j+46 8 506 23129, [email protected]
j~=l~+46 8 506 23262, [email protected]
h~=l+46 8 506 23104, [email protected]
^=p+46 8 506 23021, [email protected]
16-Mar Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 EUR/USD 1.374 1.35 1.33 1.30 -1.7% -3.2% -5.4%
EUR/SEK 9.742 9.50 9.20 9.00 -2.5% -5.6% -7.6%
EUR/NOK 8.02 7.90 7.85 7.80 -1.5% -2.1% -2.7%
EUR/CHF 1.451 1.45 1.47 1.48 -0.1% 1.3% 2.0%
USD/JPY 90.4 95 98 100 5.1% 8.4% 10.6%
GBP/USD 1.516 1.50 1.50 1.53 -1.1% -1.1% 0.9%
USD/SEK 7.091 7.04 6.92 6.92 -0.8% -2.5% -2.4%
USD/NOK 5.84 5.85 5.90 6.00 0.2% 1.1% 2.8%
NOK/SEK 1.215 1.203 1.172 1.154 -1.0% -3.5% -5.0%
GBP/SEK 10.75 10.56 10.38 10.59 -1.8% -3.5% -1.5%
GBP/NOK 8.85 8.78 8.85 9.18 -0.8% 0.0% 3.7%
SEB FX Forecasts
========
SEB policy rate forecastsRB NB FED ECB BOE
Current 0.25% 1.75% 0.0-0.25% 1.00% 0.50%
End -09 0.25% 1.75% 0.0-0.25% 1.00% 0.50%
Mar 24 Mar* 16 mar 4 mar 4 marApr 20 apr 28 apr 8 apr 8 apr
May 5 maj 6 maj 6 majJun 23 June* 23 jun 10 jun 10 junJul 1 jul 8 jul 8 jul
Aug 11 aug 10 aug 5 aug 5 augSep 2 sep 22 sep 21 sep 2 sep 9 sepOct 26 okt 26 okt 7 okt 7 okt
Nov 3 nov 4 nov 4 novDec 15 dec 15 dec 14 dec 2 dec 9 dec
End-10 1.50% 3.00% 0.50% 1.00% 0.75%
End-11 3.00% 4.25% 2.00% 2.25% 2.00%
Neutral policyrate 4.00% 5.00% 4.25% 3.80% 4.50%
Inflation target 2.0% 2.5% ~1.8% ~1.8% 2.0%
50bps hike 25bps hike 25bps cut 50bps cut >50bps cut
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
FX Survey: Market record overweight in SEK
The market is record long SEK.
Respondents believe the rest of themarket is even more overweight inSEK.
Riksbank rate hikes and strongpublic finances are seen as the keypositive drivers for the SEK.
The market expects the SEK tooutperform other Scandinaviancurrencies and the EUR during therest of this year.
=l= = = = RM= = ~=~= = = p= ~= ~== ~= ~~= ~= == = = pbh= E~= NMJ~===~F=~===~K=^==~===~=== = = = ~= = = = ====pbhK==
Historical positioning
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Apr-99
Nov
-99
Sep
-00
Mar-01
Feb
-02
Nov
-02
Okt03
Sep-04
Dec
-05
Nov
-06
Dec-07
Mar-09
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Own company Market
Overweight in SEK
Underweight in SEK
==f= = = ~= ~=
~~= ~= I= ====~==RRB== ~~= = ~= = == ~= = = ~=== = =pbhK= q=~==~===pbh====~==K=
Participants' own positioning in SEK
55%
45%
0%
23%
73%
4%
Overweight Neutral Underweight
Financials Corporates==
=^=~======pbh=======~I==VRB==~~=~== ~= ~= ~= = = = K=eI= = ROB= = ~= ~==~=K==
Perceived market positioning in SEK
95%
5%0%
52%
32%
16%
Overweight Neutral Underweight
Financials Corporates=
=Conclusion on positioning: Given that the marketis record long in SEK there is definitely a position
risk for the currency. However, at the same time it isquite clear that the market is also aware of thissituation and has actually overestimated total longSEK positions held by the whole market.
=
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
SEK best friends: Riksbank and publicfinancesb= o~= = = =
p= == ~= ~= =~====~==== = ~K= f= ~= ~= = ~= ~=~==~=~=~=====pbh=~==~=~==~==~=~=pbh==== _~= ~== ~= = ~=NO= = ~= ~= = = = ==~===pbhK=====
=====
Most expect to retain risk appetite =o=~=~==~====~= = ~= = = ~K=t= I= = ~=~= ~= ~= = ~= == = ~= = = =I====~==~==~= = ~= = ~= ~== = ~= K= =K= o~= = = ~= == =~= ~= EUMBF= = =
=====K===More speculative SEK tradingt= ~= ~= = ~= =~=~===~K=f==~= E~= ~= ~= pbh=F=~=~= =~= ~=K=l====~==~===K==
Speculative trading in SEK now
compared to 6 months ago
8%13%
37%
32%
11%
considerably
lower or
ceased
somewhat
lower
unchanged somewhat
higher
considerably
higher
=Market expects stronger krona=`= = = ~= ~= =
= = = pbhI= ~~= ~== == = = K= =broK= eI= = = = = ~=~~=K==rpaK===
Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Median 9.55 9.45 7.27 7.31
High 10.00 10.00 7.70 8.10
Low 9.00 8.50 6.33 5.81
Average during survey period EUR/SEK 9.71, USD/SEK 7.12
EUR/SEK USD/SEK
==t= ~= ~= ~~= = ~=
p~~~==~===~~=~== = ===~K=j====pbh====p~K=a== ~= ~= ~~=I==TPB==~~=== pbh= = = = RQB= =~=~==klhK===
Which Scandinavian currency will
outperform during the rest of 2010?
73%
18%
5% 5%
33%
54%
13%
0%
SEK NOK ISK DKK
Financials Corpotates=
=
=
Market ranking of SEK drivers
Rik
sbank
Fis
calp
ol/P
ublfin
Swegrowth
Sweexports
Risk
appetit
e
Reb
ala
ncingfl
ows
Baltic
s
Liq
uidity/V
olatilit
y
Positive
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
Sweden Closing the expectations gap
Superior fundamentals offer roomto manoeuvre.
Rate hike cycle initiated in July.=f= ~= ~= = ~= ~== ~= ~= = = = ~I=p===~==~=== ~= = = ~= == = = = =K=t==~=~==== ~= = = ~== ~I= = = =~= ~= ~= = `L^= = ~=p=~====~=~= = = = EJkF=K===q~= = = ~= == ~= ~= ~= = nQ=dam=EJNKRB=L=KK~KF===~== = ~= K= q= ~===~====~= ~= ~~= ~= ~= ~=
~K=t=~=~==dam== = OMNM= = = ~= ===OKSBI===br=~~K===Swedish industry best in testq=kfbo===~=== ~= = ~= ~= sJ~=K===
1009080706050403020100999897
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
120
111
101
92
83
74
64
55
Swe: GDP, % y/y
GDP
Tendency indicator
==
p= ~~= mjf= = =~= ~= = I= == = ~= = ~== K= ^= ~= ~~I=~~= = = ~= I== = = = I=~= ~= ~= = = == = ~= = = ~= = ~=~~=~K==Consumers willing and able to spendp= = = ~=I= = = = ~= ~= ===~=~~=~I=== = = ~K=_== ~= ~= = ~= ~== K= `= = ~= ===~= ~= = = ~=~===~=J~= ~= VKRBI= MKRBJ= = == ~K= p= ~= ~=~= = = =~= = = ~K= t= = ~= =
= = ~= =~~= ~= = ~== = ~= = = =K= c~= = = ~= = ~=~~===OMNMJNNK==q=~=~====~== = = = ~= ~=~= = = =~~= ~= ~~= = ~K=eI= ~====~=
~=~=======~= = ~= = = I= =~==~======~=VM=K====t======~=~= ~= = = ~= =o~= ~= ~= = c~K= q=p=c~~=p=^I=cfI= = = = = ~= = =
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
o~======~=~I======~~=~=~K=f=~=I=
==~=======~=K==High core inflation past its peakq=~=~=~====~= ~= = = == = = g~~I= = ~=~====~=~=~===J======`mf=~K=t===~=E`mfc= = = ~= F= = ~~=
= = = ~= = pbhI= =~= ~= ~= ~= = ==I=~=~=== ~= = = = = == ~I= ~= = ~=K= eI= = = = =K=p~====~==`mfc=E`mf====~F= ~= = o~= ~K= t=~= `mfc= = = = = ====o~=====~===~K==
11100908
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Swe: CPIF, % y/y
The Riksbank
SEB
==First hike in Julyq=o~=~=~=~=~========~=~K=q=c~= ~= ~= ~= pK=o~===~==== = = = f= ======~I=~==~=dam=I=~== = = = K=t===~==~=~======gI===~=~=~= ~= = = = = ~I=
~===~==NKRMB==vbNM=~=PKMMB==vbNNK====
j~= ~= ~= ~= ~== = ~= ~= = = = = =~= ~~= = OMNOK= l= =o~=~==~============~K=t==b`_===~=== = OMNNI= p= = ~= ~=~==~~==K=d~K===
Market's repo rate expectations based on
FRA and RIBA futures
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
12/09 05/10 11/10 05/11 11/11 04/12 10/12
%
Riksbank Feb path
FRA adj. for credit risk
SEB forecast
==Limited supply downside risk to yields=^= = J= ~= K= =b`_= ~= ~= = ~= p== = ~= K= t=~= ~= NMJ~= ~= K= d~= =OM= = vbNMK= t= ~= = ====~=~==K=p==~=~~====~=~=~=E==== FK= q= k~~= a= l== = ~= = =~= ~= = = K= f=
= = = ~= =j~==~=pbh=NMJNR==~=OB=~=NKRB= = dam= = OMNM= ~= OMNN=I======~==~==~K==SEB country risk scoret= ~= = ~= = = E~==~==~~====~=I= = `L^= ~~I= ~= == = ~= =
~F= ~= = = = =~= = = NM= ~= K=d~K= t= = = = ~== ~= ~= = ~= = =
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
= = ~= = I=~= = ~= J= = =~=~=~====
~I= p= ~= = ~==~=~=~K==
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Country risk score
Greece
Sweden
Belgium
Austria
Spain
Portugal
Finland
Denmark
France
Germany
IrelandUK
Netherlands
Italy
==
1.10.70.40.0-0.4-0.7-1.1
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Risk score
Risk score and 10y bond spread vs Germany
FR
10y spread, bps
ESIT
PT
UK
IE
GR
SW
FI
GE
DK
NL
AT
BE
==
Buy 2014 covered bonds vs. swapsl==~===p=== ^pt= ~= ~= = =~= RJNM= = = ~== = = = ~= = = =c~K=_===~===~I=~=~=~=~== = ~= = = p== = K= ~L== = ~= = = = =~= ~= = = ~= = ~= =
~======~===~==~~=== = _~= ~K= ^===`=_=f=Ec=NUFI== ~= = ~=~=~~K=t== ==~==p=== K= ~I= ~= = = OMNQ=~=I====~W== ^=~=~===~=~=
==OMNM=~=~~==
= g~~K=p=`=_=fI= c=NU=
p= = = ~= ~= =~~~==bro=====
=~===pbh===~K=
_= = ~= = ==~===~===p= = K= p=c= f=fI=j~=NNK==
c= = = ===~K==
d= p= = ~= I==~= = = = p= == K= ~= ~= = =b~= = EKK= p~F= ~=K= p= c= f= fI=j~=QK=
=^= ~= J~= ~= = == p= = = =~= ~= P= ~~= a~= J~~K=p=~=ONK==Buy 5y CBs vs. 2y/10y swap wings`= =J= =R=K= OLNM====pbh=~=I=~==R==~=~===NJQ=====~=~====K=_~===~==~==o~===gI==~=
~= = = = R= K=OLNM==~=~=~~K===
Convexity on SEK swap curve tends to peak 1-4 monthsbefore the first hike
Note: Pick-up calculated as yield 5y 0.5*yield2y 0.5*yield10y
SEK swaps: Pick-up of bullet 5s vs. 2s/10s bfly10y
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ja n-97 Jun-98 Oct-9 9 F eb-01 Jul-02 Nov-0 3 Ap r-05 A ug-0 6 Jan-08 May-0 9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
repo rate, rhs
1999: Bullet pick-up peaked
95 days before first hike
2002: Bullet pick-up
peaked 118 days before
2006: Bullet pick-up peaked
18 days before first hike
==l~= ~= ~= = = ~=~I= = = = ~=~= = ~====~=R===E~=~= ~= R= ~F= K= ~= = = =OLNM= pbh= ~K= c= ~= = =~= = = = ~= ~I=
~=~==c=f=~K==
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
SEK: Stretched positioning vs. attractive valuation
The SEK is still undervalued andshould strengthen. Short termpositioning remains challenging.
We regard the normalisation ofexports and orders as vital inreturning the SEK to its long termexchange rate.
We forecast EUR/SEK at 9.00 andUSD/SEK at 6.90 by year end 2010.
=t=====~=RMB= = p= dam= = = =
=~=~= = ==pbh== ~= == = ~= =~= = pbhK= q= p= =~= = ~= ~= = pbh=VM==nN=OMMU===pbh=QM==nQ=OMMVI========~=p==~==pbhK===
SEKbn(quarterly
)
pI= = ~= = ~= ~= ~== K= =rpI=~= =~= = == rp= = = = ~= =~==pbh=UM==OMMS===pbh=PM==OMMVK==
eI=~==~=~=rp=== = = = = p== = = K=t=~= ~~== ~= = = = ~= ==~=~===~== = = K= a= ~=~~====~==~====~==p== ~=~= == ====~=~==~~==~==~~==p~=p==
=K==
q= ~= = = = == = = = = ==~K=q==~=== = ~= = = ~= ~======~K=q====~~==K=t==~=~==~==== ~= ~~= ~= = ~=~= = = ~== == = = = ~= ~=
= = K= q= ~~= == == = ~= ~=p= =~==~==~=~= = = pbh= ~I= = =~=~=== =~~== = ~= = K= d=~I= = = ~= = =~~= = = = = = ==~=K==
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SEB Scandie Views Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Index2005=100
Netbalan
ce
==
Composition of Swedish exports:Contrary to popular belief, Swedish exports do not
just comprise cars and trucks. Indeed,telecommunications are far more important.=
Swedish goods exports 2009 % of totalexports
% change
since 2008Wood and paper products 13% -6%
Minerals 9% -38%
Chemicals, rubber products 15% 2%
Mineral fuels, electric current 7% -35%
Machinery, transport equipment 45% -24%
Manufactures of metals 3% -24%
Industrial machinery 16% -21%
Electronics, telecommunication 14% -10%
Road vehicles 8% -47%
Other 4% -2%
Other products 12% 0% ==
Service exports currently represent 50% of the totalSwedish trade surplus comprising:=
Swedish service exports % of total
Other business services 37%
Transports 18%Tourism 17%
IT/Communication 14%
Licencies/Royalties 7%
Finance/Insurance 4%
Other 3% ==
Swedish service exports have become anincreasingly important contributor to the totalSwedish trade surplus, currently representing over50% of it.=
ARS
EK
bn
=
Limited political risks for the SEKq=_~=~I==~=~=~=~==~==~=~===~I=
~= = ~= ~= = = =~~==i~~=K===
Investor survey: Almost 80% of respondentsregard a Baltic devaluation as either not likely orvery unlikely while 13% see an even chance of itoccurring.=
c= ~= _~= = = =~===~=~=====p=~=~==~===~= ~~K= i~= ~I= ~= ==E~=~=F=~=
= = ~= pbh= OT= = = ~=o~= = = c~= ~== = = ~= = ~= = =~=~===OMNNK=
2009 2010 2011
Estonia 4.4 5.3 3.8
Latvia 12.2 13.5 5.5
Lithuania 10.4 14.3 4.5
Baltics 27 33 14
Projected credit losses for Swedish banks
in the Baltics (SEK bn)
=
^====~==pbh=
= = p= = = pK=a==~=~==JJ== = ~= ~= = ~===~====~======K====
Investor survey: Two thirds of respondents eitherdo not think a change of government would affectthe krona or have no opinion on the matter. Onethird regard a change of government as negative forthe SEK. Significantly, not a single respondent seesa change of government this autumn as SEKpositive.
=
f=====~==~= E= ~= RJNM= ~= F=~= = ~= ~= = == I= ~= = ====~~K=
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
SEK volatility has room to fall furthers~= ~= = = ~= ~~=~K=pbh=~=~=~==
~===~==~=~=K= q= ~= = = =~= = = ~= ~=~K=^=~=~==~=~=~==~=~=~==~K=
Curr ent Median RatioAbove ratio
(%)
Below ratio
(%)
Bond (MOVE) 76.3 103.14 0.74 81 19
Equity (VIX) 17.9 20.34 0.88 62 38
EUR/SEK 7.1 5.80 1.23 29 71
G7 Currency 11.6 9.81 1.18 23 77
EM Currency 10.8 9.73 1.11 30 70
EUR/USD 10.0 9.80 1.02 46 54
EUR/NOK 6.3 6.20 1.01 47 53
Implied volatilities
=
t=== ~~= ~== pbh=~= = ~= ~= =~==~=====~===~==~==== ~= = = K= i=~= =~= = =~==~==broLpbh==~===~==~==~==~K=
^= = = pbh= ~~= ~== = = = ~= ~= = =~= = ~= ~K= q=
~= = = ~= ~= EKK= == broLpbh= ~= = = =~= F= = = =broLpbh===~====~= ~= ~= ~= p= == E= = = ~= ~= ~=X= = ~= = = ~= == = = FK= q= = ~=~~= ~= ~= ~~=~===~===~=~== = ~K= = `= = = ~=
broLpbh=~==VKQU====~=c~== = ~~= ~= ~==~=o~K=
EUR/SEK
=
r= = = = = == = = = ~== = = ~= ~= = nQ= =
=~=~=~== ~==~==QU===VKMMK==
Predicted change to Q4 2010Expected change EUR/SEK change
Swe rate spread vs EMU +50bps -33 re
Swe business conf +5 units -15 re
Total -48 re =
EUR/SEK long term fair value =^= = ~= = = p=~= ~= I= broLpbh= =~= = == ~= K= f= ====~==~===
= = = ~= ~======~=~~K=f==~===pbh=K=bro=E=abjF= = = ~= = = ~=K=_=NVTMJVMI=p=== = = ~= = ~=~= d~= E= bjrFI= = == ~= = = pbh= K=abjK= p= NVVOI= ~= = ~= ~=~= ~= = o~= = =~= ~= I= p= ~=
= ~=dam== ~= ~=~=d~=E~==~=~==bjrFK=a= = = =~= === ==abjLpbh=~=~K=l= ~= = = I= = ~= =~= = = = == ~= ~= = ~K= q=~~= = broLpbh= ======K===
Investor survey: The median respondent regards9.20 as a long term fair value for EUR/SEK.=
DEM/SEK
Swedish/Germanprices
==
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
Swedish equity market we remain bullish
We remain bullish on Swedishequities and look for the OMX toreach 1150 by year-end, meaning anadditional 15% rise this year.
=t= = = ~= ~= ~= == = = ~= ~= == = ~= ~~=~=I=~=~===~J=~=~===J==~===~====JK=q= p= = ~= = JI= ~= ~= k== = = ~= = =I=~=~=p=~=~====bj=~==~~=br==K=c=~===p= =~= = ~= =~=I= = = = = ~== ~= = = = p=~J=~==~=~=~=RJ~=K===
From micro level to macro themes:
Prooffice: Closing down redundancy businessPulp & Paper: Sack paper prices has turnedthe cornerVolvo: RehiringBiltema: Recently announced that it plans todouble the number of stores in Sweden in thenext four yearsTV Advertising space: Sold out in Feb andMarch according to media agenciesStaff companies: Increasing volumes=
Aggregated profit growth Enskilda Swedish
universe
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
Low valuation We expect 32 Swedish companies (27% of
our covered universe) to deliver all-time-high operating profits this year, but only 7%of companies are trading at all-time-highlevels
We have done an analysis of stock data forthe last 20 years and discovered that thecurrent proportion of companies withforecasted 2010 all-time-high profits whichare also trading at all-time-high prices currently at 25% is at an historically verylow level
In addition, we assume profit growth willcontinue into 2011 (Enskilda aggregate at22%). The historically low level of theEnskilda All-time-high Indicator leads us tobelieve that there is still upside for Swedishequities. =
=If not a profitability bubbles~~=~=~=~K=^===~= ~= ~= = OMMUI= = == ~= = = = ~= ~=~~= = = ~= = = ~= ~=
==~~==~K=k=~= = OMNN= ~= = = =OMMTLOMMUJI= ~= ~= = ~==~=~==~=K=^===~==~=~~=I= === ~= ~= ~= = =====OMMU=K=t=~=~== ~== ~= = ==~= = == ===OMB=~==~I===~=NRB=E~=~~=~=~=RBFK==
====
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
FX Survey: Surprisingly neutral NOK-positioning
Surprisingly, the market holds aneutral NOK position.
However, respondents see themarket as aggressively overweightin NOK.
Norges Bank rate hikes and riskappetite are regarded as the keypositive drivers for the NOK.
The current NOK rate already hasdovish implications for monetarypolicy.
=l=====~=~== =k~= ~=~= =~= ~~= ~= = ~=~= = = klh= ~= == ~K= eI= =~= ~= = = = = ~= = =~=J==klhK==
Market positioning in NOK
11%
71%
Own positioning Perceived market
positioning=
=
`~=~=~====klh= = ~= = NUB= = ~~=
=~===J===K=^= = ~= = = URB==~~====~===J==klhK===Positioning reflected in forecasts =`= = = ~= ~== ~~= ~= ~= ~=~= ~= = = = == = ~= = TKVM==aJ
OMNMK=cI==~===~= broLklh= ~= ~= = UKMMK= p=~~= = broLrpa= ~= NKPM= =~J=OMNMK===
jun-10 dec-10 jun-10 dec-10
Median 7.95 7.90 5.90 5.96
High 8.40 8.65 6.60 7.52
Low 7.60 7.60 5.20 5.27
EUR/NOK USD/NOK
Average during survey period EUR/NOK 8.0250, USD/NOK 5.88 ==
NOK best friends: Norges Bank andrisk appetite
q= == ~= = ==klh== = = == ~== = = k= _~= ~= =~K=f==I=klh=~==~=~=~=I=======~==~=~=~=~= K= pI= == = = = ~= = ~=~=~=~===klhK=t======~==~====klhK==
=
Norges Bank biggest positive NOK-driver but participants are dovishp=~~=~=~=~=~===~====~I==SUB= = = = = =~=~=NKTRB==j~=OQK=q=~~===~=~=OKQTB=====~=~=~=~=OKTRB==JOMNMK=q=b`_=~===
Market ranking of NOK drivers
Norg
esB
ank
Risk
appetite
Oil
price
Norgrowth
Liq
uidit
y/V
ola
tilit
y
Fis
ca
lpo
licy
Portf/
reb
alfl
ows
Norexports
Positive
Negative
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
=~=~=~==NKNVB=JOMNM=~==OKMPB==JOMNNK=f==I=~= ~= = = ~= ~K=
^= VMB= = = ~~= ~== ~= ==~==K==
NOK pressures Norges Bank, notexports^= ~= = = ~= I= =~~====klh=~=~==~==~K=pI= = VNB= = ~= == ~= = klh= ~= ~= ==~==~=TKSM=K=broK===
NOK pressures monetary policy
31%
38%
24%
7%
it already
has
below 8.00 below 7.60 not a factor
Speculators taking profit?^= ~~= ~= ~= ~=~= = = I= = ~= ~=~==~=~=~=======~=K===
View on future risk appetite
12%
41%
Own risk appetite Market risk appetite=
=
======
====
t=~=~====== ~= ~= =klhK=^~I== = ~~= ~= ~= = =
~~=~====~=~= ~K= l= = = =~= = ~= = = I= KK=~= ~= ~= = klhK=q= ~= ~= ~= = = =~= = ~= = ~=broLklh= = = = ~=~===klh=\===
Current NOK speculative trading vs.
six months historic
13%
35%
26%
17%
9%
considerably
lower or
ceased
somewhat
lower
unchanged somewhat
higher
considerably
higher
=
SEK to outperform Scandiesklh= = = ~= = == ~= = pbh= ~= = pbh=
= ~~K= ^~= = = ~=~~= = = ~~= ~== = = = K= ^=~= = TRB= = ~= ~= RVB= =~~= = = = pbh= == EKK= SRB= = = ~FK==eI= = NTB= = k~=~= ~= = = = EOVB===~FK==
Which of the Scandinavian currencies
will outperform the others during the
remainder of 2010?
59%
36%
0%5%
75%
17%
0%8%
SEK NOK DKK ISK
Financials Corporates ==
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
Norges Bank: policy rate normalization on track
A more broad-based recoverysuggests further normalisation ofpolicy rates.
Lower interest rate expectationsabroad and the strong NOK createuncertainly about how fast NorgesBank will move.
=k= _~= = ~= = = ~= =~= ~= = ~K= t===~=l=~=aI==~===== ~=~=NKTRB=
~==j~=OQ==K=q=l=j~= m= o= = = OR=~===J~I=~=OKTRB==~=~=~J=OMNM=~=QKMMB=~=JOMNNKK====
Norges Bank deposit rate and rate pathLevel, %
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
Level, %
Norges Bank deposit rate
Optimal rate path, MPR 3/09
Optimal rate path, MPR 2/09
=
t= = = ~= = = ~= ~=~J~= = = = ~= =~=~=~I=k=_~=~== =~=~=~= ~~====~== ~= = =~K=kI=====~=~===~=~=== ~= = klh= ~= ~= = =~I==~==~=~=~= ~= ~= = ~= ~== ~= ~= = = ~~= dam=E= L~= ~= F= ~== = = eOJMVK= q= ~===~===~=~== = =j~= m= oK= f=~I= = = = = = I=
= ~= = = = = ~= ~=I====~K====
Changes to the optimal rate path, MPR 3/09%-point
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
%-point
Demand Productivity, wages, prices
Interest rate premium Interest rates abroad, NOK
Net change
=
eI==~=~==~=~=== = = ~= = ~= = =~= = ~== = = ==~==~=~=~===~==~==K=`=~==~====~=K= l~I= k= _~= =~=~==~=~=~K==
=Robust growth in private consumption=q= =~= = ===~==~=~=MKPB=~== = ~~= dam= = nQJMVI= ~=~= = = = = ~==K=j~~=dam==NKRB==OMMVI==~=~==NVUVK===
Mainland GDP and final domestic demand% change (2Q)
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
% change (2Q)
GDP mainland Norway
Non-oil final domestic demand
=
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
m= = = J= ~= =~= = ~= ~JJ~= ~= ~===vbMVK=m~==~=
===~=nO===~JJ~=~=~==~=~~=PKQB==nQJMVI= = = ~= ~= =~=K=e=~=~== = =QKUB= =OMMV= E~=~===~======F=~= SKMB= = = ~==nQK=t= ~= = = = ~~= =I===~=~==~= = = ~= ~~= = TKRB= ~=~I= ~== VKVB==JOMMVI===OMJ~=~~K==
=^===~==~==OMNM=EI= = ~~I= = =~=FI= == ~= ~= = ======~== ~= = QKRB= = OMMVK= ^= J~J= ~= ~= = ~= = =~= = ~== I= ~==~= k= _~= RKRB= ~= =l=~==K===Tighter fiscal policy from 2011=
l~= = ~= = QKUB= = OMMVI=======~~=dam=E~~===FK===
q= = = = = = =~= ~= = = ~= ~=~= = = = = = = ===~==K=q=OMNM=== = ~J~= J= =klh=QR=~======= E~= = QB= = = d=m=c=d~FW=~==~=
I==== = = =~== OMNUK= q= c~=j= ~= ~J~====~==== = = = = OMNPI= = ~== == ====~K=q====~=~===== = OMNMI= = ~==~= == = ~= ~= k= _~=~= = ~= ~= ~I=J====OMNNJNOK==
Limited decline in oil sector investment =
l= = = ~= = ~= =~=~=~====== OMNMW= I= = ~= = == ~= = p~= k~=
=K=eI=~===~==OMMV=~=~=~=~I=~== == =~===NKQB=
= OMNM= = = ~= = ~= = ~==~==~~===OMMVK===
q~=====~==~I====~=PJRB=== ~= = = = = OMNMI= ~=~= ~= ~= SKQB= ~= = OMMV= ~=~= ~= = k= _~=l= = ~= ~K= eI== = = = = = =I======== = K= `=k= _~=
~==~~=damI==J====~===~K===
Core inflation above the banks forecast=pJ~J===eOJMV=~== ~= ~= = = k=_~= ~= = OMNMW= ~= ~= =~===~==I== J~= ~= = ~~= dam== = = = O= B= = O= BK=^==~==~~=I=== =~= = ~= =~=
E~=~=FK===f= = l=j~= m= oI= =OMNM= ~= = = =~~=dam=~= ~= BJ= ~= = =~=~=~=~===NBJ== JBI= ~=~= = = = = =nOJNNK= f= k= _~= = = ~= =~==~==~==~=== ~= ~K= f= ~I= =~=~==Q=B=~===OMNM==~===K=
= Core consumer prices% change (12M)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
% change (12M)
CPI excl. taxes and energy
CPI excl. taxes and temporary changes in energy prices
Norges Bank's forecast, October 2009
=
`= ~= ~= ~= ~= = =~~= ~= = = `mfJ^qb= ~=
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
E= ~= ~= F== =OKPB= = NKVB= = c~K= k= _~==`mfub=~== = ~= =
= ~= = = = J== ~= ~= = = OKNB= =~=MKPB=~==~=~=====K=^=I===~== ~= ~I= ~= ~= = = ~=I= == ===~=====j~=m=oK===
NOK import-weighted indexIndex
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
Index
NOK import-weighted
NOK assumption MPR 3/09
NOK assumption MPR 2/09
=
eI=k=_~=~==~===klhW==~===~==~= = = EF= = = = =
I= = ~= ~= E~F== = = = = = =~~= = = ~= = == ~= =K=pI= = =~= E~= ~= = = `mfJ qb=F= ~= =~= = NKSB= =nQJMV= = MKPB= = c~I= = =~= = = k= _~= = ~=l= ~= ~= = = ==~==~=~~==MKRB==nOJNMK===Brighter outlook for global growth
=k= _~= === ~== ~== ~= K= q= ~= = =c~= = = ~= = ===I=~====~= = ~= ~= = =l=j~=m=oK=^=~=I== ~= ~= ~= OMNM= dam= = ==rp=~==b===N=B=~=BI=I= = = = p=E~= k~= ~= ~= ~F=~=~=~=N=BK===
=eI= =~=dam= ~== OMNM=I= = ~I= = fjc= ~=~==OKTB===rp=~=NKMB===
b= X= ~= = ~= = pb_= =OKOB= = = pK= ^= ~== = k= _~= ~= ~=
=~==~=====J=K===Unchanged optimal rate path=q== ~== ~=~=NKTRB=~== j~= OQ= ~= = I=~=~==OR====~=====~=j~K==
t= ~= = = = ~= = =~========~=~====~=~=~K=
^= ~I= ~= ~= = ~= E~= ==`mfF==MKTB==nQJNM=~=NKOB==nOJNN= ~= = k= _~= = ~=~~= = = = = ~= =~=~=K=qI==~=~===~==~==PKMMB==JOMNM=~=QKORB==JOMNNK===
NOK FRA curve adj. for credit risk and
optimal rate path from MPR 3/2009
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 08/11 02/12 08/12 02/13
NOK 3m FRA adj. for credit riskOptimal rate path MPR 3/2009SEB folio rate forecast
==
eI==~===~===~= ~~= = = ~= ~= =
= = = klh= ~~K= q====pb_=~===b`_I== = = = ~= = ~= == = JOMNM= = j~= OMNNI======k=_~== ~= ~K= pI==== =~= = = = ~= ~= ~= ~=====~W==
Pay Dec NOK FRA at 2.94%, target 3.15%.t= ===== ~=~==j~= OQK= ^= = = PKMB=
k= _~= ~= ~= = == = ~= = ~= ~=====~~====~=~=~K=
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SEB Research Monday, 15 March 2010
NOK: Not cheap but not crowded either
Norway is financially strong withits substantial current account /budget surplus.
Continued foreign interest inNorwegian (energy) shares shouldgenerate NOK supportive flows.
However, NOK is trading above itslong-term average.
We forecast only limited NOKappreciation most indicatorsspeak for NOK range trading 2010.
=Oil the key NOK driverk~===~=~~==~= = = ~= = =d= m= c= d~=EdmcdFK= q~I= k= _~== = = = = ===~=~==== = = = I= == ~= = ~= =~= = = = = ~= = klhK=kI==klh===~=
= ~= = ~= = = =~= = W= NF= ~= = = =~= = = ~X= ~= OF= == ~= = ==~==~===K=^== = = ~= = = klh= =~= = ~= = =~==~=K==
Oil price outlookWe expect oil prices to average USD 75/b in 2010.The global economic recovery and strong non-
OECD energy demand are currently balancedagainst healthy crude oil supply conditions. Thesecounterbalancing factors continue to suggest thatcrude oil prices will remain range-bound betweenUSD 70-80/b in H1 2010. Marginally however, SEBforecasts are skewed to the downside due to amplecrude stocks, a comfortable OPEC reserve capacityand the risk of a slowdown in economic growth inH2 2010 and 2011 with crude oil prices estimated topeak above USD 80/b.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
OBX 0.22 0.44 0.39 0.42 0.56
Oil price 0.43 0.35 0.63 0.34 0.73
* Bank of Englands Effective Exchange Rate Index, Norway
NOK EER index correlations over time*
NOK correlations with stoxx and oil- NOK effective exchange rate index
0.
45
0.
29
0.
38
0.
54
0.
56
0.
53
0.
57
0.
30
0.
52
0.
73
0.0
0.10.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2008 H1 2008 H2 2009 H1 2009 H2 -2010Mar
OBX Oil price
Foreign banks in the driving seat=t= cu= = ~~= = k= _~== = ~= ~= = ~= =klh= = = OMMRK= q= ~=~= = ~= == = = ~~=
===k~==~K=p~~= klh= = ~= ~= =~~==J~~=K=p==~= ~= =~== =====~==~=~====k~K====
billions
billions
=^= k= _~= = = ~= =~= cu= = ~= = = dmcdI= =======~=~= J~~= K= q= =
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SEB Research Monday, 15 March 2010
~= klh= ~= ~= klh== ~= = ~= ~= = = = =~=~=======~=
cu= ~= = = ~=~~K= p= = ~= ~== = RMB= = ~= klh= ~=I= = = ~= =~= ~= = = ~K=`==klh=~=~===~= ~= E~= = F= ~= == ~= = ~= = =K=p=====~I== ~= ~= = = =~= = klhK= t= ~= = ~= ~=
~==E~===F= ~= = = = ====~==~=====l=p=b~K===
NOKIndex
Billions
=
No FX purchases likely in 2010/11The Norwegian Government collects FXdenominated revenues from the Petroleum industrythrough Petoro, designated the States DirectFinancial Interest. These are transferred to theGovernment Pension Fund Global. The governmentalso collects oil tax revenues which aredenominated in NOK. The allocation from the state
budget to the GPFG is a function of the non-oilbudget balance. As Norway currently runs a highernon-oil budget deficit than stipulated by the Fiscalpolicy rule and because FX denominated revenuesremain high (exceeding the net allocation to theGPFG from the budget) there will probably be noneed for Norges Bank to buy FX in 2010. We alsoexpect the state budget for 2011 to show asubstantial non-oil budget deficit. Absent a sharplylower oil price, our main scenario assumes noNorges Bank FX purchases in 2011 either.
Foreign appetite for energy sharesq= = = = ~= = eO= OMMUI=
= = = ~= = == = ~= ~= ~= = =k~= = ~K= q= =~~= ~= = = ~= QMB= =
= = PMB= = = ~= = I= ~== = = =~= klh= = E= ~=
= broLklh= ~= NMKMMFK= t== = =====~== ~= =PQKUB==c~=OMMV==PSJPUB==OMNMK=q=~==~=~=NRJOMB====l_uK=t== l= p= b~= ~=~~~= = ~= klh=NRMM= = = = ~= =klh=~===klh=NUJQU=~= = = ~K= q= =~=~=klh=K===
Investor survey:Somewhat surprising our investorsurvey rank portfolio flows as NOK-neutral.=
billions
Foreignownershiprate(%)
==
Norges Bank: NOK overvaleudk= _~= = = = = == = =klh== ==== ~K= a~= =~= ~= ~= = = ~== E~= k= _~= F= = ~=~=~==~=~K==
Index
=
eI= = ~= = ~= ~=`mf=~===~~~=obbo=klh==EKK=lb`aF==klh=====
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SEB Research Monday, 15 March 2010
~= = = ~= = J=~~K= j~I= = = == ~J~= = broLklh= ~= UKMMK=
k= _~= = = fJQQ= EJ=klh=F==~===~= RB= = = = = ~FK= d=k~= = ~~= = ==~=~===klh=~~===K===
Investor survey: The current NOK-level is judgedby 69% of survey participants as having dovishmonetary policy implications. Only 9% of coporatessay current NOK-level inhibits exports.
Where is the NOK heading?
t= = NF= ~= = k~= =~= ~= = = =~= = k~=X= OF=~====rpa=TMJUMLX=PF=~== = = ~= ~= K= ~=~= ~X=~= QF== = ~== = ~= ~= = K=f~==~===~=~= = = ~= JOMNM=broLklh=~==TKVRK=p=====~=broLklh=~=~==
======~=~==~==~~==~=J=~=~I=====~=~== = = = = OMNMK=eI= ~= = k~= =~~=~====== I= = = = TKUM=broLklh= a= OMNM= ~K= j=~=~~==~=== = =~L= ===klh==~K===
EUR/NOK
=
Base case
Strong
NOK case
Weak
NOK case
OBX 375 413 315
Oil 75 90 65
Rate spread -1.95 -2.20 -1.60
Risk appetite 0 5 -10
EUR/NOK 7.95 7.74 8.34
Change in pips -2,100 3,900
Change in % -2.6 4.9
EUR/NOK Scenario analysis, 2010
Risks to the NOKq=k~===~=~== J= ~~K= a~= = =~= = = ~= ~= ~= ~= =~=~K=eI===~=
~= =obbo= ~= ~= =`mf= =====~===k~=K=kJ==~=~= = ~~= K= q== ~= = ~= = ~=~= ~= = ~= == EKK= ~= J= F== ~= = ~= ~= = = =K===
t=~====~=~==k~===~=
= L= = ~= ~=rpa= RMLK= ^= ~= ~= = =~= ~= = ~~= =~= = = = = =i~=~K=eI==~== ~= ~= ~K= oI== ~~= ~= = ~= =~= ~= ~= = klhK= t== = = = == = ~= = = ==I====~==
~= = = ~= ~= = =~===klh=~K==NOK strategies going forwardbroLklh=~=~=~=~=~=K= p= = = ~= = = S==TKTMLUKPM= =J= ~= == = = = = OMNMK=p= = = ~= TKVMLVR= =k=_~=~===j~=OQI=====~==~=
~= = = = ~= ~= ~=K==
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
Norwegian stock market positive outlook
We continue to hold a bullish viewbased on expected top-line growthand still attractive valuation.
We expect the Oslo StockExchange to gain 15-25% 2010.
j~=J~=~=~=~=~= = = = ~=OMMU= ~= OMMV= ~= = ~~== = J~= ~== ~= = k~= = ~==~=====
=~===~==~==~= =~== K=c= ~= = ~= OMMUI= =l=p=b~=ElpbF=~===== = ~= = OMMV= = ~=SRB= = E= klh= FI= = QOB==~~===jp`f=t==E=~= FK= f= rpa= = = lpb=====~=VUBK===
q=~==~=~===== = = ~= ~= ~= ~=~~= = = = ~=~=====k~=~= K=c=== == ~= ~= = ~= = =PNKUBI===PQKUB===~=NO=K=t=~===~==~= =I=== = ~~= = = =~~====~K===
Foreignownershiprate(%
)
USD/Barrel
=
q= ~= ~= =~=~~=I= ~= = = ~= =I= = = ~= ~= == ~K= `= = = ~== = = = =~== = ~= =~I=~==~= K=eI= ~= = ~=~~=~==~==~I== = = ~= ===~=~==~=~===~=K===
p=~= ~~= ~== =~== =k=OMMU=EmL_sW=MKUMF= = ~= ~= = = =mL_s= ~= ~== ~= SB===OMJ~==~K==
Norwegian P/BV
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Median
==
t= ~= = ~= =~=======~I= = ~= ~= = ~= == ~= = ~= ===~=~====~=NOJNR=K =l=~=~=
= = = ~= ~= ~= NMB=~==~=I==~=OMB== = OMMVK= l~= = ===PMB==~=~~=~=EJPUB==OMMVFI========= = RMBI= = PMB= ~= NRB===OMMU=~=OMMVI=K===
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
Denmark growth remains below trend
Growth remains well below trend Buy Swedish CB vs. Danish=t==~=~===== a~= K= q= = = == ~= = = == ~= = ~== ~= = ~= = ~K=pI= = = = ~= ~= ~== ~= ~= = K=c=~=~=RB===damI==~= ~= = = = = NKQB= =
~K=a===OMNM===I== J= ~= = ~== = ~= ~~= = =K=_=~=~=~~=~== ~= I= = = =~= = I= ~= ~=OMNMK=
q=I= = ~= ~=== = ~= = = = ~=~==b`_==~===RK=f==== = = ~= ~= = = =
= ~= a~= = =~I= = ~= = = =~K= eI= = = ~=~= ~= = = RM= =b~= = ~= ~= ===~=b`_=~K==
Swedish CBs cheap vs. Danisha= = ~= = K= =~=~==I=p=PJQ===E`_F==~==~=~=
~= ~= ^pt= ~= J= = OMJOR= ~= = a~= J~~I= ~= ~= ~= ~== K= ~= ~= = ===~===~=E= f=bI=c=OS=~=c=f=fI=j~=NNFK==
EUR ASW spread curves:SEK-and DKK-denominated issues basis s w apped to 6m euribor
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Mar-09 Dec-11 Sep-14 Jun-17 Mar-20 Dec-22
Stadshypotek
Swedbank Hypotek
Eurohypo (GER)
BBVA (SP)
BNPP (FR)
RealKredit non-callables (DKK)
==
l==~I=~===~=^pt=~=~=~===~~~=K=a~= J~~I= = ==p=`_==~=~=P= ~~= a~= J~~I= = ~~=~====~=E=~=`=_=fI=c=NUFW===
^= ~= ~= = ~= ~== = OMNM= ~= ~~= = =
g~~K= ^= ~= ~= ~= = =~= = = p= `_= K=~= = ~= = = = = ~=~=J~K=b==~==~=~=~=~=~=~===~== ~= ~= = ====~==`_=~=====_~=~==~== ~~I= ~= ~= = ==~= = ==QMJRMB= ==~=~===OMNMK==
=o~= = ~~~= = broK= p=~= = ~I= = p= ~= ~== broJ~=g=`_K=^=~= ~~= = = = ~== ~= ~= = = pbh= ~=~= ~= = = ~= ^pt= ~=K=q= ~= = ~~~= =bro= = = == =~===pbh===~K=
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
Iceland patience is a fishermans best friend
^===~===I=== = = ~= = f~= ~K= t\=cI= == == = = === = = ~= K=pI= = = ~= E=F= ~= = = == = = ~K= _I= = ~== = ~I= = ~= =~= ~= = = = ~= ~== ~= ~= = = =====~K==
==
^=f~=~==~==f~=== = k= = = = ~== = K= q= J=~======~==~==fjc======= ~= = ~= ==~K=t===~== = = EKK= = ~= L~=~= = a= OMNNF= == = = = = ~==~=f~===~~=~I= = = = ~I== ~= ~= ~==~==K===
Opposition considerationsc==~I========
==f~==~===~=~==K=q=~=== = ~= = ~= === I= = ~== ~= = ~= = =~=K=`J~=~~== ~= = ~= ~= = =~~= = ~= = m~= J~=~=~=K==
_= ~= a= ~= ~=~= = = = =~K=f==I========~==K=t= ~= ~I= = = ~= = ===~=~===~= = = ~= ~~= =f~K= _= = ~= = ~=~~=I=~==f~=~=~~= = ~~I= =====~=~~=~K==
What next?t= = = ~= == K= ^= = =~= i= ~= ~= HOTR= = == = = ~= = == = = ~= = ~= ~===i~~=~===== =~= = = =~=VMB= = = K=l=~= ~= == ~I===~=~====== f~= = = =
k= = ~= ~= = = == fjc= ~= ~= ~K= q= =~~= = ~= = ~~==~=~====~==fph=~K===
Trading opportunitiest= ~~= = = = = == = ~K= t= ~~== broLfph= = = =~=~= ~= OTM= ~= = = ~== = E___HL_~~PFK= q=
=~= = = ==~= ~= ~~= = = =~= ~= = = ~== = = = = ~=NTQK= j~I= = ~= =~~=~==~=~K=c== ~= = = OM= ~= PU= =b=j~=`=^=~=~=pb_=b=j~=~=HQS=U=RMS=OPN=NMK===
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SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010
The technical outlook
EUR/SEK decline levelling off EUR/NOK significant support USD/SEK & USD/NOK base building NOK/SEK due for a bounce=broLpbh= = = = = ~= ~= = ~== = NNKUMK= q= = = = =~= VKSSLNMKMM= = = = ==~==~===~=VKRRK=q=~====~=== = = OMMR= ~= =~= ~= ~= ~= ~K= p= ~== = ~= ~= =VKVRLNMKMUJ~~K=
broLklh====TKVVJI=== = ~= ~K= q=~= = = ~= = =TKUQLTKVV==~K=^==~=UKNPLNU==K=
rpaLpbh= C= rpaLklh= ~= = = ===~==~==~=
~K= q= = ~= = =rpaLpbh= = ~= = =~= = ~= = = ~== ~= ~= UKMM= K= q=== = = = ~= TKQRK=_= SKVU= = ~= ~= =~K=
rpaLklh= = = ~= ~= ~I== ===~=== ~= = ~= ~= ~= = = =SKNMLOMJ~~= ~= ~= = SKQMLSM=
~K=
klhLpbh= = = = = = = ~=K=q=OMMU=====~== =~= ====~= ~= ~= = = = = ~~K= q== ~= ~= = ~= =NKORLOSJ===~=~==NKNS===~~===K=
=
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