SEB report: Oil price set to continue rising

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  • 8/2/2019 SEB report: Oil price set to continue rising

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    Oil Market ReportLast chance for a diplomatic solution?

    8 MARCH 2012

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    3

    SEB Oil Market Report

    Crude oilCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

    12 month12 month12 month12 month time spreadtime spreadtime spreadtime spread(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango,

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    Crude oilUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)

    OOOOECDECDECDECD totaltotaltotaltotal industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

    310

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5 year average

    2011

    2012

    c

    2500

    2525

    2550

    2575

    2600

    2625

    2650

    2675

    2700

    2725

    2750

    2775

    2800

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5 year range, top

    5 year range, bottom

    2011

    5 year average

    OECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

    OECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

    890

    900

    910

    920

    930940

    950

    960

    970

    980

    990

    1000

    1010

    1020

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5 year range, top

    5 year range, bottom

    2011

    5 year average

    1175

    1200

    1225

    1250

    1275

    1300

    1325

    1350

    1375

    1400

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5 year range, top

    5 year range, bottom

    2011

    5 year average

    OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

    OPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC production(kb/d, monthly data)

    375

    380

    385390395400

    405

    410415

    420425430

    435440

    445450455

    460

    465

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5 year range, top

    5 year range, bottom

    2011

    5 year average

    24000

    26000

    28000

    30000

    32000

    34000

    jan-0

    8

    mar-

    08

    ma

    j-08

    jul-08

    sep-0

    8

    nov-0

    8

    jan-0

    9

    mar-

    09

    ma

    j-09

    jul-09

    sep-0

    9

    nov-0

    9

    jan-1

    0

    mar-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jul-10

    sep-1

    0

    nov-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    mar-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jul-11

    sep-1

    1

    nov-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    OPEC-12 production

    OPEC-11 production

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    European oil product markets

    The higher the crude oil price, the more it depresses end

    consumer demand. Of course, in local currency terms theprice of oil and oil products relative to 2008 highs varies,

    with Europe particularly badly affected. Consumers areaiming to avoid buying as long as possible while hoping

    prices will decrease once again. For this and other reasonsincluding negative economic growth, soft heating demandand normal seasonal weakness affecting several products,

    Europe possesses a relatively bearish total demand outlook.One of only a few supportive factors for the market balance

    is the string of refinery shutdowns that may become abullish issue should demand recover again, e.g. ifconsumers are forced to restock or secure supplies as the

    Iranian embargo impacts fully. Following positivedevelopments in refinery economics since December last

    year, the February crude oil rally had a negative impact

    although the situation is well short of the position late lastyear. Meanwhile the structural shift in refining capacity

    eastwards continues as the OECD share of global oilconsumption continues to decrease both in absolute and

    relative terms.

    Light ends: The light end of the barrel has continued torally to currently trade near early 2011 highs while crackshave moved sideways over the last month. The relatively

    tight Asian naphtha market requires inflows from otherregions during spring refinery maintenance, with a

    correspondingly supportive impact on the European market.Tight market conditions are also reflected in strong Asian

    demand for light crude oil qualities. The gasoline market isweaker as volumes of winter specification remain unsold atthe same time as the market is beginning to demand its

    summer counterpart. While the naphtha market appearsrelatively well supported over the next month, a gasolineimprovement is unlikely to occur until the driving season

    gets under way.

    Middle distillates: Currently, the middle of the barrel isweakest. Prices have been rising alongside crude but not byenough to prevent the cracks from falling back. Jet fuel

    demand is seasonally low and as temperatures are fairlyhigh heating demand is generally depressed. We see no

    signs of the much-feared diesel shortage, with demandweak and inventories more than satisfactory. At present, itis difficult to envisage any specific potential catalysts in

    middle distillates.

    Heavy ends: While the low sulphur fuel oil crack has heldup well, its high sulphur counterpart has continued to fall

    back. Asian demand for HSFO remains healthy although it isnow significantly weaker than earlier this year.Consequently, the LS-HS spread has blown apart after

    achieving near parity. However, at least for now, thereappear to be insufficient tankers to transport cargoes from

    Europe to Asia, which may restrict the European HSFOmarket temporarily.

    European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lightightightight endendendend benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1000

    1050

    1100

    1150

    1200

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Naphtha

    Gasoline

    European mEuropean mEuropean mEuropean middleiddleiddleiddle distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

    550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1000

    1050

    1100

    1150

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Jet fuel

    Diesel 10 ppm

    Gasoil 0.1%

    EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

    350

    375

    400

    425

    450

    475

    500

    525

    550

    575

    600

    625

    650675

    700

    725

    750

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    High sulphur fuel oil (3.5%)

    Low sulphur fuel oil (1.0%)

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    Oil productsUS gUS gUS gUS gasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)

    US product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarks(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    180

    190

    200

    210

    220

    230

    240

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    Gasoline 5 year average

    Gasoline 2012

    Distillate fuel oil 5 year average

    Distillate fuel oil 2012

    180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330

    340350360

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Gasoline

    Heating oil

    US refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilization(%, weekly data)

    ICE Gasoil anICE Gasoil anICE Gasoil anICE Gasoil andddd European premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiums to Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoil($/t, daily closing)

    81

    82

    83

    84

    85

    86

    87

    88

    89

    90

    91

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    2007-2011 avg.

    2012

    550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1000

    1050

    1100

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    ICE Gasoil 0.1% (left)Jet fuel premium (right)Diesel 10 ppmpremium (right)

    EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean productproductproductproduct crackscrackscrackscracks($/b, daily closing)

    European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lowowowow ---- hhhhighighighigh sulphursulphursulphursulphur fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil differentialdifferentialdifferentialdifferential($/t, daily closing)

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Naphtha GasolineJet fuel Gasoil 0.1%Lowsulphur fuel oil High sulphur fuel oilDiesel 10 ppm

    -15-10-505

    101520253035404550

    5560657075

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    Oil productsRegional 3Regional 3Regional 3Regional 3----2222----1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks($/b, daily closing)

    European naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocks(kt, monthly data)

    -6-4-202468

    1012141618202224262830

    32343638

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Asia (Minas)US (WTI)Europe (Brent)

    Persian Gulf (Dubai)

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    4 year range, top

    4 year range, bottom

    2012

    4 year average

    European gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocks(kt, monthly data)

    European jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocks(kt, monthly data)

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1000

    1050

    1100

    1150

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    4 year range, top

    4 year range, bottom

    2012

    4 year average

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    4 year range, top

    4 year range, bottom

    2012

    4 year average

    European gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocks(kt, monthly data)

    European fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocks(kt, monthly data)

    1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    4 year range, top

    4 year range, bottom

    2012

    4 year average

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1000

    1050

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    4 year range, top

    4 year range, bottom

    2012

    4 year average

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    Oil productsUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

    US implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

    13,5

    13,8

    14,0

    14,3

    14,5

    14,8

    15,0

    15,3

    15,5

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5y avg.

    2011

    2012

    8,5

    8,7

    8,9

    9,1

    9,3

    9,5

    9,7

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5y avg.

    2011

    2012

    US implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

    Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)

    4,0

    4,2

    4,4

    4,6

    4,8

    5,0

    5,2

    5,4

    5,6

    j f m a m j j a s o n d

    5y avg.

    2011

    2012

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Heating oil/Gasoil

    Jet fuel/Kerosene

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    Related energy marketsUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas price(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)

    UKUKUKUK natural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas price(ICE, front month, weekly closing)

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    16

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90$/MMBtu (left axis)

    GBp/therm (right axis)

    Nordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)

    Continental power priceContinental power priceContinental power priceContinental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    EUA priceEUA priceEUA priceEUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)

    CoalCoalCoalCoal pricepricepriceprice(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    22

    24

    26

    28

    30

    32

    34

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    65

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    125

    130

    135

    jan-1

    0

    feb

    -10

    mar-

    10

    apr-

    10

    ma

    j-10

    jun-1

    0

    jul-10

    aug-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    okt-10

    nov-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    jan-1

    1

    feb

    -11

    mar-

    11

    apr-

    11

    ma

    j-11

    jun-1

    1

    jul-11

    aug-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    okt-11

    nov-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    jan-1

    2

    feb

    -12

    mar-

    12

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research

  • 8/2/2019 SEB report: Oil price set to continue rising

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    SEB Oil Market Report

    Market indicatorsMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI World equity market indexequity market indexequity market indexequity market index(weekly closing)

    UBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market index(price index, weekly closing)

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    1200

    1300

    1400

    1500

    1600

    1700

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    1200

    1300

    1400

    1500

    1600

    1700

    1800

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    JPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMI(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)

    Regional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:s(monthly data)

    32

    34

    36

    3840

    42

    44

    46

    48

    50

    52

    54

    56

    58

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    mar-

    06

    jun-0

    6

    sep-0

    6

    dec-0

    6

    mar-

    07

    jun-0

    7

    sep-0

    7

    dec-0

    7

    mar-

    08

    jun-0

    8

    sep-0

    8

    dec-0

    8

    mar-

    09

    jun-0

    9

    sep-0

    9

    dec-0

    9

    mar-

    10

    jun-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    mar-

    11

    jun-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    US

    Eurozone

    China

    Reference

    Regional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial production growthgrowthgrowthgrowth(%, y/y, monthly data)

    OECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicators(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    mar-

    06

    jun-0

    6

    sep-0

    6

    dec-0

    6

    mar-

    07

    jun-0

    7

    sep-0

    7

    dec-0

    7

    mar-

    08

    jun-0

    8

    sep-0

    8

    dec-0

    8

    mar-

    09

    jun-0

    9

    sep-0

    9

    dec-0

    9

    mar-

    10

    jun-1

    0

    sep-1

    0

    dec-1

    0

    mar-

    11

    jun-1

    1

    sep-1

    1

    dec-1

    1

    US

    EurozoneChina

    8889

    9091

    92

    93

    94

    9596

    9798

    99

    100101

    102103

    104105

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    China

    Eurozone

    OECD

    USA

    Reference

    Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

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    11

    SEB Oil Market Report

    DISCLAIMER & CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE

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    Opinions contained in this report represent the banks present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All

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    SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

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    Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity [email protected]

    +47 9248 9230

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    +46 8 506 230 47

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