SEB report: Global economy resilient to political uncertainty

7/27/2019 SEB report: Global economy resilient to political uncertainty

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-global-economy-resilient-to-political-uncertainty 1/41

Global economy resilient to political uncertaintyMONDAY

OCTOBER 28, 2013

RECENT NEWS HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DOMINATED

BY POLITICAL TURBULENCE. Above all, the deep divide in

the United States Congress has helped increase economic

policy uncertainty. Other factors are a degree of uncertainty

about the formation of a new German government and a new

wave of protests against fiscal austerity in southern Europe.

Geopolitical tensions in North Africa and the Middle East arestill cause for concern, especially when it comes to dealing

with Syria’s chemical weapons.

DESPITE THESE CONCERNS, FINANCIAL MARKET

REACTIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER MODEST. By allaccounts, the effects on the real economy are notespecially significant. In recent weeks, we have postedcountry/regional reviews (Macro Updates) using incomingeconomic statistics and have published a new issue ofEastern European Outlook . Our main conclusion is thatthe data have followed our expectations in the Augustissue of Nordic Outlook . The biggest change concernsan upward revision in Japanese growth. As earlier, weexpect global economic growth, measured in GrossDomestic Product (GDP) adjusted for purchasing powerparities (PPP), to climb from 3.2 per cent in 2013 to 4.0per cent in 2014 and 4.2 per cent in 2015.

OUR FORECAST IS STILL THAT US GROWTH WILL

SPEED UP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS andthereby serve as an important driver of the worldeconomy. The direct effect of the October partialshutdown of US federal government operations will be tolower the annualised fourth quarter GDP figure by anestimated 0.5 percentage points. For the first time in 17years, Congress failed to reach a budget agreement intime, accentuating the deep divisions in American politics.Although our main scenario is that a long-term budgetand debt ceiling agreement can be reached early nextyear, the risk picture has changed. In the August issue ofNordic Outlook , we estimated that the risks to our mainscenario were symmetric, with a 20 per cent probability ofboth a stronger and weaker economic scenario. Becauseof the new US political situation, we have raised theprobability of a worse outcome to 25 per cent. We havealso changed our estimate of when the Federal Reservewill start cutting back on its monthly securities purchases.

Because of greater economic policy uncertainty and moremixed economic signals, we now expect “tapering” to be

announced after the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) meeting in March 2014.

IN THE EURO ZONE, ECONOMIC INDICATORS ARE

STILL POINTING TOWARDS A WEAK RECOVERY. Thecomposite purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) in the

four largest countries –

Germany, France, Italy and Spain –

have converged and are now close to the expansionthreshold of 50. After GDP growth of 0.3 per cent in thesecond quarter, we expect somewhat slower growthduring the second half of 2013. Measured as annualaverages, GDP will shrink by 0.5 per cent in 2013 and thenincrease by 0.8 per cent in 2014 and 1.7 per cent in 2015.In recent months, unemployment has been at 12.0 percent: a historically high level, but a marginal downturnfrom the peak of 12.1 per cent in prior months. In severalcrisis-hit countries, however, lower labour forceparticipation rather than more jobs is the reason whyunemployment has stopped climbing. Inflation was

measured at 1.1 per cent in September, and we expectcontinued low price pressure.

Global GDP growth

Y-o-y percentage change (brackets: August 2013 Nordic Outlook )

2012 2013 2014 2015

United States 2.8 1.6(1.6) 3.3(3.3) 3.7(3.7)Japan 2.0 2.0(1.9) 1.9(1.4) 1.3(1.0)Germany 0.7 0.5(0.5) 1.7(1.7) 2.0(2.0)

China 7.7 7.7(7.5) 7.4(7.4) 7.0(7.0)India 5.1 4.7(5.0) 5.5(5.6) 6.0(6.0)

United Kingdom 0.2 1.5(1.5) 2.3(2.3) 2.6(2.6)Euro zone -0.6 -0.5(-0.5) 0.8(0.8) 1.7 (1.7)Nordic countries 1.0 0.6(0.8) 2,4(2.4) 2.6(2.5)

Baltic countries 4.3 3.3(2.9) 3.7(3.8) 4.2(4.4)OECD 1.4 1.2(1.2) 2.5(2.4) 2.8 (2.8)Emerging markets 4.9 4.8(4.8) 5.3(5.3) 5.4(5.4)

The world, PPP* 3.4 3.2(3.2) 4.0(4.0) 4.2(4.2)Source: OECD, SEB * Purchasing power parities

EVEN THOUGH THE EURO ZONE RECESSION IS NOW

OVER, the region remains a weak link in the worldeconomy. Such figures as GDP growth, unemployment,competitiveness and public sector budget balances are

moving in the right direction, but they are still atworrisome levels. Fiscal austerity and credit marketdisruptions will hamper euro zone economies for years to



2

come. The European Central Bank (ECB) will have to keepworking proactively to keep interest rates and yields downin peripheral crisis-ridden countries. We are sticking toour assessment that the ECB will cut its refi rate by 25basis points in December 2013 and offer additional low-cost Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) loans to

banks. More steps will also be needed to prop up crisis-hitcountries, including a further Greek debt write-down.

PARTLY BECAUSE THE FED DID NOT ANNOUNCE A

TAPERING OF ITS BOND PURCHASES IN SEPTEMBER,

financial markets in Asia have regained some of theirdownturns of last summer, when India and Indonesiawere especially hard hit. Meanwhile there are signs thatmost of the growth deceleration is now past for the regionas a whole. In China, GDP growth accelerated somewhatduring the third quarter, compared to the precedingquarter, reaching a year-on-year rate of 7.8 per cent. We

have revised our forecast for 2013 upward and estimatethat China will surpass this year’s official target of 7.5 percent by a few tenths of a percentage point. The recentupturn has, however, largely been driven by centralgovernment infrastructure investments. Looking ahead,our assessment is that decision makers want to avoidmajor stimulus measures that will counteract their effortsto rebalance the economy towards consumption-drivengrowth. We thus believe that GDP growth will graduallydecelerate during the next few quarters, among otherthings because of a tighter credit environment.

UNLIKE CHINA, INDIA HAS BEEN HARD HIT BY

FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL. During the past month,however, India’s currency and stock market haverecovered some of their earlier downturns. Onecontributing factor is the reforms aimed at liberalising thefinancial sector that the Reserve Bank of India launched inSeptember. Meanwhile there are also certain signs ofstabilisation in growth; exports have performed stronglyin recent months and industrial production has alsoimproved. Underlying structural weaknesses remain inplace, however, and the central government is hardlylikely to implement any growth-promoting reforms beforethe spring 2014 election. Continued high inflation and

budget deficits also make it difficult to launch short-termstimulus programmes aimed at economic stabilisation.

THE NORDIC ECONOMIES WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW

DIVERGENT PERFORMANCE. In Sweden, the secondquarter GDP figure was revised downward relativelysharply, compared to the preliminary outcome. This is oneof the reasons why we have adjusted our full-yearforecast for 2013 downward from 1.2 to 0.8 per cent.Industrial indicators are still relatively weak while theservice sector index continues to climb towards normallevels. The situation of households is more solid;consumption is being stimulated by an expansionaryfiscal policy as well as by rising share and home prices.Combined with stronger international demand, we believe

that GDP growth will climb to 2.6 per cent in 2014 andfurther to 3.2 per cent in 2015. Despite rising employment,the jobless rate will remain high. Because of low resourceutilisation along with weak inflation pressure, theRiksbank will wait until December 2014 before starting tohike the refi rate and may possibly delay its rate hikes until

early 2015.

THE MOMENTUM OF THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY HAS

WEAKENED SINCE EARLY 2013. In particular, household

goods consumption has shown a downward trend.Meanwhile the housing market has cooled, which impliesa downside risk for residential construction ahead. GDPgrowth looks set to end up slightly below 1 per cent in2013, but we then expect an upturn to more than 2 percent annually in 2014 and 2015. Unemployment(according to the Labour Force Survey) rose to 3.6 percent during June-August, but this was due to an increase

in the labour force; underlying job creation remainsstrong. Inflation provided a sharp upside surprise duringthe spring and summer. Core inflation (CPI-ATE) reached2.5 per cent in August but then fell to 1.7 per cent inSeptember. In this environment, Norges Bank faces adifficult balancing act. Due to concern about the strongNorwegian krone, we do not now expect an interest ratehike until September 2014. The deposit rate will stand at2.0 per cent by late 2014 and 2.75 per cent at the end of2015, but the risks are on the downside.

GDP growth in the Nordic countr ies

Y-o-y percentage change (brackets: August 2013 Nordic Outlook )

2012 2013 2014 2015 Sweden 1.0 0,8(1.2) 2.6(2.6) 3.2(3.2)

Norway 3.1 0.9(1.1) 2.4(2.7) 2.1(2.3)Denmark -0.4 0.5(0.4) 2.0(2.0) 2.5(2.5)Finland -0.8 -0.8(-0.3) 1.2(1.3) 1.6(1.6)Nordics 1.0 0.5 (0.8) 2.4 (2.4) 2.6 (2.5)

Source: OECD, SEB

DENMARK WILL CONTINUE ITS MODEST RECOVERY.

During the second quarter Danish GDP rebounded, drivenby an upturn in both domestic demand and exports.Looking ahead, there is good potential for a continuedrecovery. Rising real wages and a housing marketturnaround will buoy private consumption. In addition,fiscal policy will shift in an expansionary direction after afew years of austerity. Despite stimulus measures, publicsector finances are expected to move into surplus duringour forecast period.

THE FINNISH ECONOMY IS STRUGGLING WITH BOTH

CYCLICAL AND STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS. This is mostclearly apparent in the current account balance, which

over the past decade has moved from surpluses of 8-9 percent of GDP to deficits of 1-2 per cent. Although theeconomy emerged from recession in the second quarter,



3

the recovery will be more lacklustre than in the otherNordic countries. Despite the weaknesses in theeconomy, relatively strong central government financesmean that the fixed income market has remained stronglyconfident in the Finnish economy. The yield spread toGermany for 10-year government bonds has been around

20-30 basis points in the past year. This represents loweryields than in Norway and Sweden, for example.

Håkan Frisén, +46 8 763 80 67, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]






US economy: More political falloutMONDAY

OCTOBER 7, 2013

• For the first time in 17 years, the United States is on a partial government shutdown. A shortshutdown would only have small macroeconomic effects. We reckon that a one weekshutdown would shave off 0.1-0.3 percentage points off real fourth quarter GDP growth at an

annualised rate. But uncertainty is high and the costs will accelerate with the length of theshutdown amid declining consumer and business confidence. The upshot is that the currentpartisan battle may resolve issues that otherwise would hang over the debt limit a fewweeks from now.

• Our forecast assumes no failure to extend the debt ceiling. Not increasing the debtceiling could be disastrous indeed; it would immediately require the government to balance

the budget. Spending would have to be cut by 20 per cent or 4 per cent of GDP and arecession would surely follow. Moreover the credit market could freeze, the dollar could

plummet and interest rates could skyrocket.

• A protracted stalemate to pass a new budget would likely delay the Federal Reserve’s taperingdecision into 2014. As things now stand, however, our forecast still is for the Fed to starttapering its bond purchases in December.

• We expect no long-lasting market and economic impacts, and our 2014 real GDPgrowth forecast is unchanged at 3.3 per cent. Bellwether macro indicators are compatiblewith 3 per cent real GDP growth year-on-year. Amid the fiscal wrangling, such growth ratesare unlikely in the short term but will materialise in 2014, according to our forecast.

Mattias Bruér

SEB Economic

Research

+46 8 763 85 06

Key dataPercentage change

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP 2.8 1.6 3.3 3.7

Unemployment 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.2

Inflation 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.2

Core inflation 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.1

Source: SEB



2

Economic Insights

THE INDICATORS ARE ENCOURAGING

• The trend in consumer indicators such as the Conference Board and University of Michigan indices is pointingupward, but both measures are still relatively weak by historical standards. The brinkmanship in Washington D.C.will probably affect sentiment negatively in the near term.

• Since we published Nordic Outlook in August, economic data have generally surprised on the upside (CitiSurprise Index). Meanwhile the NFIB (small business) index is sitting close to its cyclical high, while the NAHB

(housing market) index is at its highest level since January 2006 when housing starts were 60 per cent higher thantoday.

• Our composite ISM index (a weighted average of the ISM manufacturing and the ISM non-manufacturing indices)is consistent with 3 per cent real GDP growth year-on-year. However, such growth rates are not expected untilthe second quarter of 2014, according to our forecast.

• Initial claims are currently at six-year lows. A reduction in dismissals rather than stronger hiring is still driving thelabour market. If the hiring pace would normalise by half, monthly payroll growth would easily exceed 300k.Furthermore, the current level of initial claims has historically been consistent with 3.5 per cent real GDP growth.



3

Economic Insights

FROM DELEVERAGING TO RELEVERAGING

• Consumer credit has risen for more than 20 months in a row and outstanding consumer credit has reached anew all-time high. Student debt is no longer the driving force; consumer credit excluding this segment is growingtoo. The current growth rate also reflects how different conditions are today compared to the massive credit growththat defined the last cycle.

• The pace of household deleveraging is clearly slowing and deleveraging is now confined to the mortgage

market. As a percentage of disposable income, household debt is flattening out. History suggests that a typicaldeleveraging phase lasts between five and seven years. Since this one began in 2008 it seems reasonable we are in

a mature stage. Household wealth relative to disposable income has recovered and is now well above its 20-yearaverage. The improvement has led to easing credit standards, which in turn should support consumer spending.Moreover, owners’ equity as a share of real estate assets has risen for six quarters in a row and its current level

of 49.8 per cent is well above the recession low.



4

Economic Insights

SEVERAL FACTORS UNDERPINNING A REVIVAL IN CONSUMER SPENDING

• It is fair to say that consumer spending is still relatively subdued, at least outside consumer durables. Consumerdurables are the most interest rate sensitive category and it is interesting in its own right that durables consumptionhas held up well, given the upturn in bond yields.

• Real disposable income growth is running below spending but is trending upward. The savings ratio hasrisen from 3.6 per cent in January to 4.6 per cent today.

• We see several developments underpinning a revival in consumer spending. The job market is improving,especially for those with skills and education. Average hourly and weekly earnings are trending upward. Home pricegains may have slowed, but the growth rates are still in double-digit terrain. According to CoreLogic, home price

appreciation in the second quarter alone pushed 2.5 million homeowners out of negative equity which, in turn, isimproving credit quality.

• According to our forecast, real consumer spending will grow 2.7 per cent in 2014 and 3.1 per cent in 2015. In2013 we see spending growth ending up slightly below 2 per cent.



5

Economic Insights

BUSINESS INVESTMENT WEAK NOW BUT STRONGER LATER

• The fundamentals for business investment are good. Profit margins are high while credit availability isimproving. As a percentage of GDP business investment is still low which is suggesting a considerable upside. As faras the third quarter real GDP is concerned, it looks likely that business capital spending will post another weakfigure. Core capex goods shipments – which go directly into GDP calculations – are tracking business spending

growth of -3 per cent year-on-year with one month to go. Looking ahead, however, we are optimistic on business

spending. One leading indicator for business spending, the three-month trend of core capital goods orders, is 8.4per cent higher than a year ago. Meanwhile the ISM new orders index is even loftier.

• Lower US energy costs relative to the rest of the world are a comparable advantage for the US manufacturingsector. Moreover, over time it should spur more energy-related investment activity.

• After weak growth in 2013 (3.6 per cent according to our forecast) we see business investment growthaccelerating to 10-11 per cent in 2014 and 2015.



6

Economic Insights

HOUSING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY

• Housing starts and new home sales are well below recent peaks. While housing always peaks early in the businesscycle, it is unlikely that the peak in housing is behind us since the current rate of housing starts is well belowunderlying demographic trends. Our forecast is for housing starts to rise to 1.6 million in 2015. Against thatbackdrop, we forecast real residential investment growth of 14-15 per cent annually in 2013-1015.

• Higher mortgage rates have affected sales activity to a certain degree but affordability – while off its extreme

levels – is still high. Mortgage refinancing activity has plunged, but that may not be too surprising since peoplehave had plenty of time to refinance over the last couple of years. In any event, higher mortgage rates should be

viewed in the context of the better labour market and in our view the housing recovery will ultimately proveresilient to higher mortgage rates. Excess supply of housing has been largely worked off and home prices gainsare still in double-digit terrain. Admittedly, house price gains are slowing somewhat as lower affordability impacts

demand.

• We expect home price gains of 8 per cent next year and 6 per cent in 2015. Rising home prices are helpingpush people out of negative equity, which in turn is improving credit quality and possibly labour mobility.



7

Economic Insights

THE LABOUR MARKET IS STEADILY IMPROVING

• The unemployment rate has come down to 7.3 per cent. While it is true that the drop in labour force participationhas pulled the unemployment rate lower, whether it is appropriate to say that the unemployment rate is decliningfor the “wrong reason” is debatable. According to research from the San Francisco and Boston Fed, the drop inparticipation is structural for the most part; 60-66 per cent of the drop in participation over the past five years is

structural, according to these researchers. What this is suggesting is that the US economy may be closer to full

employment than commonly acknowledged. That said, the labour market is improving, as the 2.2 million netnew jobs created in the past 12 months attest. Historically, the current level of initial jobless claims is consistentwith around 3.5 per cent real GDP growth.

• Indeed, the downtrend in hourly earnings has reversed. Compared to a year earlier, hourly earnings rose 2.2 percent in August – significantly above the all-time-low of 1.3 per cent last October. With wage growth picking up, the

key question is whether the output gap really is as large as the Federal Open Market Committee thinks.

• A mere 1.5 per cent real GDP growth rate has managed to drag the unemployment rate down eight-tenths of apercentage point in the past year. What this is again suggesting is that the potential non-inflationary speed limitmay be much lower than most people assume, at least on a temporary basis. The late 1990s is the mirror image.



8

Economic Insights

INFLATION STILL WELL-BEHAVED

• Inflation was 0.1 per cent month-on-month in August (below expectations) and was 1.5 per cent higher than a year

earlier. Core inflation was 0.1 per cent as well and was 1.8 per cent higher than a year earlier. Our forecast is for 1.6 percent inflation this year and the next. In 2015 we expect 2.2 per cent inflation. The consensus expects prices to

increase 1.90 per cent in 2014 and 2.20 per cent in 2015, respectively.

• There is a dearth of qualified applicants for available jobs which, together with a very weak pace of capital formation, has

led to stagnating productivity growth. This means that even low wage growth may trigger an acceleration in unit laborcosts. In turn, unit labor costs command a high correlation with inflation, so this poses an upside risk to the inflation

process.

• The dollar has weakened since the September FOMC meeting. The recent political deadlock has not been dollar-

supportive either. Meanwhile inflation expectations (5Y forward BE inflation) has moved up since end-August but its

current level is hardly alarming.



9

Economic Insights

A RELATIVELY SHORT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS

• For the first time in 17 years, the U.S. is experiencing a partial government shutdown, affecting some 800,000federal workers. We reckon that a one week shutdown would shave off 0.1-0.3 percentage points off fourth quarterreal GDP growth at an annualized rate.

• In our view the government shutdown may well imply less risk of a debt limit showdown – a much moredangerous event. Having made their point, Republicans in the House will hopefully go ahead and vote to raise thedebt ceiling without any drama. The key is for the shutdown to be over before the October 17 deadline when

the Treasury runs out of funds. Otherwise the deadlock will bleed over into the crucial vote to raise the debt ceiling.

• As we understand it, big payments for Social Security, Medicare and the like are not due until the end of October, sothere may be a little more time than the above deadline suggests. Moreover the CBO estimates that October 22 isthe first date the government may begin missing payments.

• Failure to raise the debt ceiling would immediately require the government to balance the budget. Spending must becut by 20 per cent or 4 per cent of GDP. If such a scenario becomes reality, at best the US economy will be pushed

into recession. In such a scenario, the hope is that the Treasury will be able prioritise and manage cash flows in sucha way that a default need not occur.

• According to polls and media coverage, the Republicans are taking most of the blame for the partisan battle. So if

they do not want to throw away the chance to capture a Senate majority in the mid-term election next year, they had

better relax their hard line-stance. In any event it is hard to imagine that President Obama will sign into law anybill that defunds his signature achievement, especially since he is not running for re-election.



10

Economic Insights

THE FOMC IS EXPECTED TO TAPER IN DECEMBER

• After convincing the market that a soft tapering was coming at its September meeting, the Fed surprisingly left thecurrent policy unchanged. Our forecast now is for a USD 10 billion reduction in the pace of Treasurypurchases at the December meeting. As for MBS, we expect no change. Our new forecast is that the program will

end in September 2014.

• Clearly a protracted government shutdown could easily push the tapering decision to early-2014. Twenty-four out of 41 economists foresee a Fed tapering decision at the December meeting, but the longer the partialgovernment shutdown lasts, the bigger the chance that the decision will come early in 2014 instead.

• The FOMC was criticised for its no-tapering decision last month; it was a huge surprise at the time and a blow to theclaim that the central bank has improved its communication. But if we fast forward to today, Fed Chairman Ben

Bernanke is being seen as something of a visionary against the backdrop of the partial government shutdown andthe possibility that brinkmanship could bleed over to the debt ceiling issue.

• In any event the decision at the September meeting was likely a close call. The primary reason not to taper wastighter financial conditions (especially higher mortgages, we assume). That is a bit ironic since the main reason forthe tightening was that the FOMC had allowed tapering to be priced into the market.

• Evidently, the FOMC is starting to feel unhappy about the (informal) 7 per cent number on the unemployment ratefor stopping its current third round of quantitative easing (QE3). At the post-meeting press conference, Bernankestated that there is “not any magic number”. Instead, what one should start focusing on more going forward isthe employment rate (employment to population ratio), in our view.



Japan: Consumption tax hike will not derail recoveryMONDAY

OCTOBER 14, 2013

• In the first half of 2013, the Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.9

per cent (Chart 1). Export growth (Chart 2) and – more importantly – consumptiongrowth (Chart 3) are boosting the economy. Looking ahead, our forecast is forstrong growth in H2 as well – consumption decisions may well be broughtforward due to the government’s decision to raise the consumption tax from 5 percent to 8 per cent in April 2014. To counteract but not fully neutralise this tax hike,the Shinzo Abe administration has also decided on spending programmes and tax

cuts. Given the current momentum in the economy, we do not expect theconsumption tax hike to derail the recovery.

• Tokyo will host the 2020 Olympic Games which, at the margin, should add togrowth as early as 2014-15. In addition, real GDP was revised sharply upwards

according to the latest release.

• Indicators are generally suggesting an ongoing recovery. Machinery orders (Chart4) are recovering, Purchasing managers’ indices (Chart 5) are in expansion

mode and consumer confidence (Chart 6) is close to a cyclical high.Furthermore, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan Index(Chart 7) is at itsstrongest level since the Great Recession.

• For the first time in almost five years, the unemployment rate (Chart 8) fell below

4 per cent this summer. In August, however, it bounced back again to 4.1 per cent.According to our forecast, the unemployment rate will gradually decrease to 3.6per cent in 2015. If the Abe administration is successful in keeping economic

growth close to or even above 2 per cent, the unemployment rate could declinemore than in our current forecast. This may well be important for inflation (Chart9) as well, although past experience indicates that positive year-on-year growth insalaries would materialise only when unemployment is at or below 3.5 per cent.

Mattias Bruér SEB Economic Research

Key data

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP* 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.3

Unemployment** 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6

Inflation* -0.0 0.3 2.2 1.5

*Percentage change, ** Per cent of labour force

Source: SEB



2

Economic Insights



China: Temporary growth reboundFRIDAY

OCTOBER 18, 2013

• As expected, GDP growth accelerated in Q3, hitting 7.8 per cent year-on-yearfollowing growth of 7.5 per cent in Q2. (Chart 1) The rebound has been driven by state-led infrastructure spending. However, policymakers are unlikely to welcome anotherinvestment-driven surge; the rebound is expected to falter in coming quarters along

with the slowdown in credit growth. We predict that GDP will grow by 7.7 per cent in2013 and 7.4 per cent in 2014. In 2015, growth will decelerate to 7.0 per cent.

• Both the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and the Markit/HSBC index recoveredin August but levelled out in September, raising questions about the durability of theeconomic rebound. (Chart 2)

• Exports were weaker than expected in September, falling 0.3 per cent year-on-year. Some of the weakness can be explained by an unfavourable base effect but otheremerging economies also showed a similar trend. Imports rose by more than 7 per centyear-on-year. (Chart 3) Relatively strong commodity imports support the view that theeconomic rebound is driven by investment and infrastructure construction.

• Government infrastructure investments (“mini stimulus”) explain much of the recenteconomic rebound, while manufacturing investment is trending downward. (Chart 4)

• Industrial production and retail sales have stabilised recently. (Chart 5)• Headline inflation accelerated to 3.1 per cent in September, mainly driven by a rise in

food inflation that hit 6.1 per cent. Headline inflation is not expected to rise muchfurther; food prices are stabilising and there are no signs of price pressure elsewhere.Core inflation is still below 2 per cent. (Chart 6)

• The interbank liquidity situation has improved significantly after the liquiditysqueeze engineered by the central bank in early June. However, short-term rates are stillabove the pre-squeeze level. (Chart 7)

• New bank lending was CNY787 billion in September, an increase compared to theprevious month. However, the broader total social financing measure slowed, bothcompared to previous month and in year-on-year terms. (Chart 8)

• Unlike other Emerging Market currencies, the yuan (CNY) has not been affected byFed tapering worries. (Chart 9) A large increase in foreign exchange reserves in thethird quarter indicates that China was a recipient of net capital inflows in Q3.

Andreas Johnson

SEB Economic Research

+46 8 763 80 32

[email protected]

Key data

Percentage change

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP* 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0

Inflation* 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.4

USD/CNY** 6.23 6.08 5.90 5.85

* Percentage change. ** End of period exchange rate.

Source: Macrobond, National Bureau of Statistics of China, SEB.



2

Economic Insights

CHARTS ON THE CHINESE ECONOMY



India: Signs of stabilisation but little scope for majorimprovement

WEDNESDAY

OCTOBER 16, 2013

• GDP growth decelerated to 4.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter;weaker than expected (Chart 1). The deceleration was widespread but there were signs ofstabilisation in Q3. We have revised our already below-consensus forecast downward;we expect GDP to climb 4.7 per cent in 2013 and 5.5 per cent in 2014. In 2015,growth will accelerate to 6.0 per cent.

• New central bank governor Raghuram Rajan has launched a reform package focusingon financial sector liberalisation. India has been hard hit by worries about Fedtapering, with substantial negative effects on the rupee and the stock market, butcentral bank reforms have stabilised financial markets for the time being. (Chart 2)However, the government has not done its part, having introduced extended foodsubsidies and a land acquisition bill that could increase the time taken to acquire land.

• In August, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in manufacturing fell below 50 forthe first time since 2009 but recovered somewhat to 49.6 in September. (Chart 3)

• Industrial production shows signs of stabilisation, increasing slightly year-on-year inJuly and August. (Chart 4)

• Car sales have edged up recently, increasing 0.7 per cent year-on-year in September.(Chart 5)

• Exports have recently performed strongly, increasing more than 10 per cent year-on-year for three consecutive months. Imports have performed poorly, falling more than 18per cent year-on-year in September. (Chart 6) The diverging trends for exports andimports pushed the trade deficit to its lowest level for 30 months in September.

• The current account deficit widened in Q2. (Chart 7) However, the recent markedimprovement in the trade balance is expected to decrease the deficit in Q3.

• Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation has accelerated in recent months; hitting aseven-month high of 6.5 per cent in September. A substantial increase in food price

inflation has contributed. CPI inflation remains elevated, at around 10 per cent. (Chart 8)

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5er cent in Se tember. Chart 9 We ex ect another rate hike before ear-end.

Andreas Johnson


+46 8 763 80 32

[email protected]

Key data

Percentage change

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP* 5.1 4.7 5.5 6.0

Inflation (wholesale)* 7.5 5.9 6.0 6.0

USD/INR** 54.9 65.0 60.0 55.0

* Percentage change. ** End of period.

Source: Macrobond, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, SEB.



2

Economic Insights

CHARTS ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY



Euro zone: Out of recession but slow recoveryTUESDAY

OCTOBER 8, 2013

After six quarters of recession, euro zone GDP finally grew again in the second quarter of2013. We foresee a positive trend in GDP, current account, government deficits andunemployment, but very troubling levels of these variables will hold back demand. Theeuro zone is on a less unstable footing, and the intensity of the crisis is lower, but it is farfrom over. We see stabilisation at the moment; recovery is still a bit ahead of us.

Developments so far since the August issue of Nordic Outlook are in line with ourforecast. Following the 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter of2013, we expect zero q/q growth in the third quarter and 0.2 per cent in the fourth. Thefourth quarter of 2013 will be the first with positive year-on-year growth figures. GDPwill decline by 0.5 per cent in 2013 and increase by 0.8 per cent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

The European Central Bank has promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, butpositive data showing that the euro zone has left its recession behind has had afavourable effect on financial markets. Since the start of 2013, government bond yieldshave continued to fall in the crisis-hit GIIPS countries. We expect that partly due to weakgrowth, low inflation, politicians not moving fast enough with reforms and problems

associated with a still weak banking sector in southern Europe, the ECB will cut its refirate by 25 basis points in December and that further LTRO lending is likely.

Daniel Bergvall SEB Research

+46 8 763 85 94

GDP forecastsPer cent

2012 2013 2014

Euro zone -0.6 -0.5 0.8

France 0.0 0.2 0.8

Germany 0.7 0.5 1.7

Italy -2.8 -1.7 0.6

Spain -1.9 -1.4 0.4

Source: SEB

Key data

Percentage change2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP* -0.6 -0.5 0.8 1.7

Unemployment** 11.4 12.1 12.0 11.5

Inflation* 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.9

Government deficit*** -3.7 -2.9 -2.5 -1.9

* Percentage change, ** Per cent of labour force, *** Per cent of GDP

Source: Eurostat, SEB






2

Economic Insights

INDICATORS, CONSUMPTION AND GDP

Indicators support the view that we will see a continuous but slow improvement. For the big four (Germany,France, Italy and Spain), composite purchasing managers’ indices are close to the expansion threshold of 50. Inmanufacturing, the situation seems a bit brighter, with PMIs for the big four converging just above 50 (except thatFrance is just below 50). Since May, there has also been continuous improvement in the European Commission’sEconomic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). In August, the euro zone ESI rose to 95.2 from 92.5 in July. The different

strengths of the economies are more visible in the ESI than the PMI, with Germany at a higher level than France, Italyand Spain. Also, the ESI is currently above its historical average in Germany but below it in France.

Consumer confidence has improved in France, Italy and Spain, although the figures are still clearly belowGermany. In August, the increase in retail sales excluding autos was just above zero and vehicle registration wasstill falling (as it has been in all months of 2013 except July).

Germany’s IFO business sentiment index has trended higher since April. Even if we expect growth in thesecond half of 2013 to be weaker than the strong figure for the second quarter, Germany will outperform most of itseuro zone partners in 2014 and 2015.



3

Economic Insights

LABOUR MARKET AND INDUSTRY

The labour market is still weak and unemployment has been stable at a historically high 12 per cent since thestart of 2013. One positive sign is that the number of unemployed fell for the third straight month in August,although by only 5,000 people, with over 19 million unemployed (12 per cent, unchanged since July). On thenegative side, employment continued to fall during the first quarter of 2013 (-1,0 per cent) and there are signs thatdecreased labour force participation is contributing to unemployment not reaching even higher levels.

There is still a mixed picture in the labour market, with German unemployment showing strength (a historically low5,2 per cent in August, by Eurostat’s definition), in France levelling out at 11 per cent and in Spain and Italy just over26 and 12 per cent respectively. Ireland’s jobless rate seems to have peaked and but is only marginally down during2013, underscoring that making unemployment fall will be a long, drawn-out process for crisis-ridden countries.

In the second quarter of 2013, capacity utilisation improved but industrial production remained weak. In July,industrial production continued to fall but an improvement in manufacturing sector confidence indicators (both theEuropean Commission measure and PMI) is signalling that performance will improve during the rest of 2013.

Portugal and Spain have seen their exports grow surprisingly strongly in recent months: a positive sign that internaldevaluations are paying off, but it is still too early to say that this is an improving trend.



4

Economic Insights

INFLATION, FINANCIAL AND MONETARY INDICATORS

Inflationary pressure is still low and the euro zone inflation rate in September (flash estimate) was 1.1 per cent,down from 1.3 per cent a month earlier. We expect inflation pressure to remain subdued both in the near termand over the next couple of years, given an expected slow economic recovery, high unemployment and low wagepressure. We foresee HICP inflation of 1.5 per cent in 2013, 1.0 per cent in 2014 and 0.9 per cent in 2015 . Lowinflation makes debt adjustment more complicated.

Even though the general economic outlook is getting more stable, developments are fragile and events that fueluncertainty are keeping the heat up. Political turbulence in countries like Portugal and Italy, as well as when andwhere we will see additional support and easing of the debt burden, are examples. The road ahead will be bumpy,affecting financial markets and growth negatively, but we do not believe that developments will be severe enoughto create a situation similar to 2008-2009.

The ECB’s current stand-by policy will come under increasing pressure, due to low and falling inflation, repayment ofearlier Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) loans that will reduce surplus liquidity and weak bank lending. Nonew policy measures have been announced, but continued verbal interventions will not be enough. We expect theECB’s policy to change and continue to forecast that it will cut the refi rate at its December 2013 meeting by 25bp to 0.25 per cent. In addition, additional LTRO loans may be necessary if liquidity drops further. Surplus liquidityclose to EUR 200 bn has been associated with a rise in the Euro Overnight Index Average (EONIA), which the ECB

does not want to see.

Bank lending to non-financial corporations is continuing to fall. Declining GDP combined with weak indicatorsmake companies hesitant about capital investment decisions, reducing the demand for new loans. Cross-borderbanking flows are falling, and even though ECB’s refi rate is low, lending rates to small and medium-sizedenterprises (SMEs) diverge, with higher rates in southern and eastern euro zone members than in northern ones.This is a pressing issue, especially since such countries as Spain, Portugal and Italy have a larger share ofemployment in SMEs than Germany, France or Finland.

Getting rid of the debt overhang. IMF research has shown that in previous deleveraging processes, growth andinflation − not reducing nominal debt − have been the main drivers. The outlook for the euro zone indicates thatthese factors will not contribute much in the near term, making the process more painful.



United Kingdom economy: Recovery on firm footingWEDNESDAY

OCTOBER 9, 2013

• After near zero growth last year, the UK economy has recovered in style this year. Real GDP hasrisen 1 per cent in the first half of the year and indicators suggest even stronger momentum in the second half of the year, which is why we are maintaining our above-consensus view fromthe August issue of Nordic Outlook . After a 1.5 per cent real GDP increase this year, our forecastis for a pick-up to 2.3 per cent in 2014 and to 2.6 per cent in 2015. Meanwhile the Bloomberg

consensus is 1.3 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 2.4 per cent in 2013-2015 (Chart 1).

• Our activity indicator (Chart 2) points to 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, thus

exceeding the 0.7 per cent quarterly rise in Q2. Moreover, the CIPS/Markit surveys (Chart 3) onmanufacturing, services and construction are all at healthy levels, suggesting a broad-basedrecovery. Meanwhile consumer confidence (Chart 4) has climbed to its highest level sincebefore the Great Recession.

• After having stagnated – deflated in real terms – for three years, British home prices (Chart 5)have increased 5-6 per cent in nominal terms since last October. Real earnings (Chart 6) are stillfalling, but consumer spending growth (Chart 7) has rebounded, accounting for about half ofthe real GDP growth seen thus far in 2013. Meanwhile the savings ratio (Chart 8) has fallen

anew below its historical average and household deleveraging (Chart 9) has levelled out –developments which the better tone of the housing market may well partly explain.

• Productivity (Chart 10) has completely stagnated since 2007. While some of the shortfall maywell be permanent in nature, the output gap (Chart 11) is estimated at 4 per cent of GDP in 2013,

which is the widest for at least 30 years. A pick-up in productivity in the years ahead means thatabove-trend GDP growth is unlikely to translate into particularly strong employment growth(Chart 12) although near-term employment indicators (Chart 13) are positive. Meanwhile ourforecast is for the unemployment rate (Chart 14) to drift slowly downward and hit 7 per centlate in 2015 – at which point the Bank of England will consider raising interest rates. Inflation

(Chart 15) has been above target since November 2009 but will be close to target in 2014-2015.One factor worth keeping an eye on, however, is money growth (Chart 16) which is no longer

falling.

Mattias Bruér



2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP* 0.2 1.5 2.3 2.6


Inflation* 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0

* Percentage change, ** Per cent of labour force,

Source: SEB



2



3



2

Economic Insights



Sweden: Slow start, but recovery on trackWEDNESDAY

OCTOBER 16, 2013

• Lower GDP in 2013. We have lowered our growth forecast for this year to 0.8 per cent(from 1.2 per cent in Nordic Outlook ) after the downward revision to second quarter flashGDP. Forward-looking indicators are mixed but suggest that the recovery is largely ontrack, though monthly growth metrics remain weak, indicating downside risks for Q3 GDP.

• Manufacturing sector indicators are mixed, while households have clearly becomemore optimistic, supported by fiscal policy and house prices.

• Steady increase in employment. The labour market continues to be stronger thanimplied by GDP, with growing employment and stable unemployment. Some indicatorseven suggest that employment growth could be accelerating.

• Inflation will remain subdued. Tendencies towards higher inflation during the summerreversed in September and our forecast that CPIF will remain below the Riksbank’s targetthroughout the forecasting period is unchanged. Lower energy prices mean that CPIF willalso be below the Riksbank’s forecast in the short run.

• Lower government borrowing. Privatisation of Nordea will lower the centralgovernment borrowing requirement by SEK 40bn. Tax revenue has also been stronger

than expected. The National Debt Office will thus reduce nominal bond issuance in 2014.

• The Riksbank will remain on hold for most of next year due to low inflation andcapacity utilisation, combined with continued expansionary policy from internationalcentral banks. We expect a first key interest rate hike in December next year and a reporate of 1.75 per cent at the end of 2015. Market pricing is approaching our forecast.

Olle Holmgren

SEB Trading Strategy

[email protected]

+46 8 763 80 79

Key data

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP* 1.0 0.8 2.6 3.2

GDP working day adjusted* 1.3 0.8 2.7 3.0


CPI* 0.9 0.0 1.0 2.0

CPIF* 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.6

Government savings*** -0.2 -1.5 -1.8 -1.3

* Percentage change ** Per cent of labour force *** Per cent of GDP

Source: SEB



2

Economic Insights

BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND PRODUCTION

• Manufacturing sentiment is mixed, with a rising purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) but a more moderate upturnaccording to the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) survey. Hard data are lagging, with continuedsluggish industrial production and merchandise exports being weak up to August. We expect exports andproduction to recover going into Q4, in line with the upturn in PMI, but see downside risks for Q3 GDP.

• Sentiment in the service sector improved in September, despite a decline for the manufacturing sector. Theeconomic sentiment indicator (a weighted average between business and consumer sentiment) clearly suggeststhat GDP will grow again in the second half of this year.

• A marked recovery for housing starts indicates that residential investment will rise again going forward. Capitalspending in the manufacturing sector is, however, expected to remain weak throughout 2013.

13121110090807060504030201

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Swe: GDP and economic sentiment

GDP, % q/q (RHS)

Economic sentiment (NIER)



3

Economic Insights

HOUSEHOLD SECTOR AND LABOUR MARKET

• Household sector confidence is recovering, climbing to its highest levels since 2011 during the summer. Theupturn should continue going forward, supported by international recovery and a gradually improving labourmarket. Strong real income growth fuelled by low inflation and tax cuts, together with strong household savings andbalance sheets, will open the way for a consumption boom as confidence returns. Retail sales and car registrations

have accelerated during the summer.

• Home prices are rising again. Prices have increased over the last 4-5 months, and short-term indicators suggest acontinued upward trend over the next 6-12 months. Lending to households is also accelerating, but only marginally.This could be an effect of macroprudential policies, with a loan-to-value ceiling of 85 per cent and increaseddemands for principal payments on mortgage loans.

• Employment continues to trend higher, while unemployment is stable. Job creation plans in the NIER surveyeven suggest a possible acceleration, although this is at odds with the weak GDP growth. Unemployment isexpected to decline from the middle of next year. Recent developments suggest downside risks to this forecast.

Household income and consumption

Year-on-year percentage growth

2012 2013 2014 2015

Consumption 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.0

Income 3.3 2.9 2.8 1.7

Savings ratio, %

of disp. income 11.5 11.8 12.2 10.8

Source: Statistics Sweden, SEB



4

Economic Insights

INFLATION, CAPACITY UTILISATION AND THE RIKSBANK

• Inflation remains subdued. Faint signs of rising inflation pressures were reversed in September with core CPIF (exfood and energy) declining below 1 per cent y/y again after a temporary increase in August. Low internationalinflation and moderate wage increases over the next 3 years indicate that CPIF inflation will stay below the Riksbanktarget through-out the forecasting period. CPI inflation is predicted to gradually increase to 2.5 per cent y/y driven

by higher mortgage interest rate costs due to expected rate hikes from the Riksbank in 2015.

• The Riksbank expected to stay on hold, until December next year. Inflation below target, low capacity utilisationand continued expansionary policy from international central banks will exert downward pressure. Financial stabilityconsiderations is an upside risk, although the new macro prudential framework means that it has become less likelythat this will trigger a rate hike. We expect a first hike in December and two more hikes in 2015.

• Stronger tax revenues and Nordea privatisation lowers government borrowing requirement. National debtoffice is expected to lower 2013 borrowing requirement forecast by SEK 50-60bn, where SEK 40bn is explained byprivatization. Borrowing ex privatisation and re-lending (mainly for the Riksbank currency reserve) is trendinggradually higher (see chart), but is expected to turn-over as growth accelerates.



Norway: growth pause should prove transitoryTUESDAY

22 OCTOBER 2013

Momentum in the Norwegian economy has downshifted quite markedly since early 2013:sequential growth in mainland GDP – excl. oil/gas and shipping – was a lacklustre 0.2%in Q2 and the year-on-year rate slowed to 1.7%. The September report from NorgesBank’s regional network suggested continued well below-trend growth over summer.

Domestic consumption of goods has been particularly weak and is in for a second

sequential decline in Q3 (and more than in Q2). In addition, the housing market hascooled quite a bit, putting downside risks to residential investment going forward.Investment growth in the petroleum sector is downshifting, leaving smaller demandimpulses to the rest of the economy next year. However, a gradual recovery at the mainexport markets in Europe and the marked depreciation of the NOK exchange rate inrecent months should lift non-petroleum exports in 2014.

According to Norges Bank’s regional network, the slowing on the supply side has centredon moderating activity among suppliers to the petroleum sector, construction and withinretail trade. Manufacturing faces crosscurrents from moderating investment growth in thepetroleum sector and what we expect to be positive demand impulses from abroad.

Inflation has been choppy recently, posting a sharp upside surprise in summer but coolingmore than expected in September: through the noise, the trend has shifted upwards.

In all, we now see mainland GDP expanding 1.8% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014 , adownward revision of 0.3%-point from the August Nordic Outlook , first and foremost dueto slower growth in private consumption which nonetheless should pick up somewhat in2014. Overall GDP growth has been cut accordingly to 0.9% this year and 2.4% for 2014.

The September Monetary Policy Report presented a more balances outlook for policyrates, and Norges Bank is likely to broadly stick to its current assessment at the tworemaining meetings this year. While we still expect the 1.50% key rate to be lifted by mid-2014, subsequent moves might be more cautious than expected as Norges Bank seems

more eager to keep the NOK exchange rate on the weak side.

Stein BruunSEB Norway

+47 21 00 85 34

Erica BlomgrenSEB Trading Strategy

+47 22 82 72 77

Norges Bank’ network sees below-trend growthYear-on-year percentage change, index

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Mainland GDP, % change year-on-year (LHS)Regional network output indicator, index (RHS)Output expectations 6 mth ahead, index (RHS)

Source: Norges Bank, Statistics Norway

Key data

Percentage change

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP 3.1 0.9 2.4 2.1

Mainland GDP 3.4 1.8 2.4 2.6

Unemployment* 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.7

Inflation 0.8 2.2 2.1 2.3

Core inflation 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.3

Government balance** 14.4 11.5 10.2* Per cent of labour force, ** General government, per cent of GDP,

forecast 2013-14 MoF (October 2013)

Source: SEB



Economic Insights

DEMAND AND PRODUCTION

Domestic consumption of goods has been surprisingly soft so far in 2013. Following a surge at the start of the year,such only inched up in Q2 and is set to have showed a marked sequential decline in Q3. Part of the weakness owesto a weather-related plunge in spending on electricity, but the underlying trend remains sluggish as seen in retailsales. While spending on services and abroad should have held up (approx. half the total), overall private

consumption was broadly unchanged on the quarter in Q2 and we have cut the forecast for 2013 from 3.0% to 2.5%and sliced the forecast for next year to 2.8%.

The downshift in private consumption has been much sharper that what fundamentals would suggest. Growth inhouseholds’ real disposable income was thus a very solid 3.7% year-on-year and thus well ahead of the 2.2% gain inconsumption. However, growth in real income was dented in Q3 by much higher inflation. Meanwhile, consumerconfidence has eased only slightly on the quarterly survey.

Momentum in manufacturing production – excl. energy and mining – has held up surprisingly well though showedsigns of moderating in August. The red-hot investment goods sector is set to slow as growth in petroleum sectorinvestment moderates markedly in 2014, but intermediate goods should be boosted by reviving foreign demand.

2



Economic Insights

LABOUR MARKET AND INFLATION

Labour market indicators have been mixed recently. In seasonally adjusted terms, registered unemployment hasgained in every month but two so far in 2013, though the rate remains rather low at 2.7% in September. Meanwhile,the LFS unemployment rate increased to 3.6% on average in June-August which, however, was due to a jump in thelabour force. In fact, after stalling in the second quarter, LFS employment somewhat surprisingly increased by an

above-trend 0.8% in June-August from the previous three-month period to be up 1.6% year-on-year.

Core inflation posted a massive upside surprise in summer by lifting from 1.4% on average in Q2 to 2.5% in Auguston the ex. taxes and energy measure (CPI-ATE). We always saw part of the lift as transitory though the downwardcorrection to 1.7% in September proved steeper than expected. Through the noise, however, the underlying trendhas shifted upwards, led by rents and domestically-produced goods. The depreciation of the NOK in recent monthssuggests upward pressure on prices for imported goods going into 2014.

The housing market has cooled markedly. In September, existing home prices were at par with the January leveland the year-ago rate slowed to 2.6%, a sharp slowing from average annual gains of 8% in 2010-12. Existing homesale has yet to show any similar cooling, but prices are pressured by rising supply (up 21% year-on-year).

3



Economic Insights

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Norges Bank’s September Monetary Policy Report presented a more balanced rate outlook: the rate path was liftedslightly and the bank now sees the first rate hike around next summer. We don’t expect a change in policy at theOctober and December meetings. The bank’s growth forecasts have yet to be proven too cautious and inflation toremain close to target. Any change in a hawkish direction should thus come in the March MPR at the earliest.

One might suspect that the low rate path reflects the bank’s intention to keep the NOK on the weak side. We expectthe bank to become even more determined to prevent the currency from strengthening (by keeping rate spreadsstable) as authorities have increased focus on non-oil exporters’ weak competitiveness. While a hike is still expectednext summer, we now see a 25bps hike in September as most likely (previously June), while subsequent hikesshould be very gradual. Our 2.00% and 2.75% forecasts for end 2014/2015 may prove too aggressive.

The long-term potential for the NOK is still positive given its attractive valuation and its unique fiscal position.However, fundamentals are fading as a driver for the NOK and considering Norges Bank’s persistent unwillingnessto do anything that might strengthen the NOK, we have trimmed our bullish long-term NOK view to forecastEUR/NOK at 7.70 by end-2014. In the short-term, the krone will remain volatile and highly sensitive to negative data.

Norges Bank nudged the rate path higher

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Norges Bank deposit rate Optimal rate path, MPR 3/13Optimal rate path, MPR 2/13

Source: Norges Bank, SEB

Factors behind revisions to rate path in MPR 3/13

Percentage point

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Q4

13

Q1

14

Q2

14

Q3

14

Q4

14

Q1

15

Q2

15

Q3

15

Q4

15

Q1

16

Q2

16

Q3

16

Q4

16

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Prices Interest rates abroadExchange rate Lending margins, premiumsCapacity utilisation Net change MPR 3/13

Source: Norges Bank

4



Finland: Slow recovery due to structural weaknessesTHURSDAY

OCTOBER 17, 2013

• After four quarters of falling quarterly GDP, Finland left the recession behind with 0.2 percent growth in the second quarter of 2013. The outlook continues to be weak and therecovery is lagging behind the other Nordic countries. Exports have been weak and theearlier resilient household sector is at present also showing weaknesses.

• The economy is not only troubled by cyclical factors, but it has also become increasinglyclear that some problems are more deeply rooted and structural. The export ratio hasfallen 10 percentage points compared to the pre-crisis level, terms-of trade have fallenand unemployment is expected to decrease only slowly. The current account has trendedfrom 8 to -2 per cent of GDP in 10 years.

• We expect growth to be 0.3 per cent each quarter compared to the previous quarterduring the second half of 2013 and after that a slight continued improvement. Overall,GDP will fall by 0.8 per cent in 2013, a downward revision compared to our previousforecast. In 2014 and 2015 GDP will grow by 1.4 and 1.6 per cent, respectively.

Daniel Bergvall Economic Research

+46 735 23 52 87


2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP -0.8 -0.8 1.2 1.6

Unemployment* 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.5

Inflation 3.2 2.2 1.9 1.8

Government fiscal balance** -2.2 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0

* Per cent of labour force, ** Per cent of GDP

Source: SEB



2

Economic Insights

WEAK MANUFACTURING, LABOUR MARKET IMPROVING ONLY SLOWLY, CONSUMERS GETTING MORE WORRIED

• Manufacturing production has fallen every month in 2013 compared with a year earlier (current prices) and exportshave fallen most months. Confidence among manufacturers improved early in 2013 but has since fallen and is at alow level. Improved international demand will help exports in 2014 and 2015, but in the near term we expectcontinued weak performance for manufacturing output and exports.

• Capital spending fell during the first half of 2013 by 1.8 per cent compared to the same period 2012. Capacityutilisation is again falling. Together with a weak manufacturing sector, the outlook for investments is also weak.Investments will fall by 1.0 per cent in 2013.

• Domestic demand held up in 2012 but has fallen so far in 2013 (-0.3 per cent in the first and second quarters).Consumer confidence has improved, but households are under pressure from a weak labour market, governmentbelt-tightening and low wage increases. Consumption is expected to fall as an annual average in 2013.

• Unemployment fell 0.5 percentage points in six months to 7.7 per cent in August, despite weak growth. Givenfalling vacancies and a generally weak outlook for the economy, we do not expect more than a levelling out at above7.5 per cent unemployment in the near term.



3

Economic Insights

FALLING INFLATION, BAK LENDING GETTING WEAKER, CURRENT ACCOUNT STUCK IN DEFICIT

• Inflation has fallen more than expected. After peaking at 3.5 per cent late in 2012, boosted by tax hikes, it stood at1.8 per cent in September 2013. Changes in indirect taxes will also push up inflation in 2014-2015, although to alesser extent. As an annual average, inflation will fall to 2.2 per cent in 2013 and continue downward to justbelow 2 per cent in 2014 and 2015.

• Demand for new loans is falling, especially for households. This development is not surprising, given that non-financial companies face falling demand and a rising amount of idle capacity. Household consumption of durablegoods is especially weak, and the housing market is flat.

• Government finances are in a relatively good position, especially in a euro zone context. Still, the presentdeficit, weak outlook and the underlying pressure of an ageing population will continue to force the government intobelt-tightening. The general government balance is expected to come out below the Maastricht limits, but pooreconomic performance risks undermining the effects of previously approved reforms, with additional cost-savingmeasures having to be implemented.

• Yields on government bonds have increased during 2013 in line with international developments, and the yieldspread to Germany has been relatively stable at 20-30 basis points. The government’s attempts to reduce the public

deficit are good for maintaining confidence in financial markets. The downside is that they also reduce demand.



Economic Insights

For more in-depth analysis and comments, please follow the links

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Fiscal budget with a marginal expansionary twist Oct 14, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Core inflation shows a sharp downward correction Oct 10, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: Momentum in manufacturing production slowing Oct 7, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Manufacturing PMI suggests healthy momentum Oct 1, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Sluggish private consumption in Q3 Sep 30, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: Unemployment creeps higher, employment turns up Sep 27, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: Norges Bank with a more balance policy rate outlook Sep 19, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Growth continuous to run at a soft below-trend pace Sep 13, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Norway moves to the right Sep 10, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Norges Bank to take notice of sharp lift in inflation Sep 10, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Record-high oil investment, slower growth in 2014 Sep 5, 2013

Norwegian Fixed Income: NOR: Growth has slowed to well below trend Aug 20, 2013

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/A35C7C1F0E452F97C1257C0400393134/$File/NorwayBudget141013.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/A6302611ABE18A6CC1257C0000348D88/$File/NORCPI101013.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunidStart/29540A95EB12D9A2C1257BFD002FAF53?Opendocument

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/692C5C411B95892DC1257BF7002A3EA5/$File/NORPMI011013.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/515309E3CBE29BE2C1257BF60035122D/$File/NORretailsales300913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/553C3BB7D8095A99C1257BF30033BAC8/$File/NORlabourmarket270913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/1E341C743A4965A1C1257BEB003B9E25/$File/NorgesBank190913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/940084151F097173C1257BE500391B62/$File/NORregionalnetwork130913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/7F36FDF5CD4F510EC1257BE2001E0470/$File/NORelection100913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/5593E6BEB312E515C1257BE20034692A/$File/NORelection100913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/128E4D5731E997DCC1257BDD0034C15B/$File/NORoilinvest050913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/888A5156961158E7C1257BCD0035A83B/$File/NORGDPQ2_200813.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/888A5156961158E7C1257BCD0035A83B/$File/NORGDPQ2_200813.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/128E4D5731E997DCC1257BDD0034C15B/$File/NORoilinvest050913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/5593E6BEB312E515C1257BE20034692A/$File/NORelection100913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/7F36FDF5CD4F510EC1257BE2001E0470/$File/NORelection100913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/940084151F097173C1257BE500391B62/$File/NORregionalnetwork130913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/1E341C743A4965A1C1257BEB003B9E25/$File/NorgesBank190913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/553C3BB7D8095A99C1257BF30033BAC8/$File/NORlabourmarket270913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/515309E3CBE29BE2C1257BF60035122D/$File/NORretailsales300913.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/692C5C411B95892DC1257BF7002A3EA5/$File/NORPMI011013.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunidStart/29540A95EB12D9A2C1257BFD002FAF53?Opendocument

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/A6302611ABE18A6CC1257C0000348D88/$File/NORCPI101013.pdf

http://corpintra.sebank.se/mb/research.nsf/alldocsbyunid/A35C7C1F0E452F97C1257C0400393134/$File/NorwayBudget141013.pdf

SEB report: Global economy resilient to political uncertainty

Documents

Transcript of SEB report: Global economy resilient to political uncertainty