SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
Transcript of SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 1/20
March 8, 2011
Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson (Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodities MonthlyRed lights flashing - volatility ahead
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General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Commodity prices are now at red hot levels, but could be
propelled even higher by the current strong OECD recovery• Many commodity prices are stretched way above long term
marginal costs, thus expect increasing volatility ahead•
Higher commodity prices are increasingly putting the globalrecovery at risk with a potential contraction down the road
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • We raise our 2011 average Brent price forecast to $96/b due to a
strong US recovery in combination with the MENA crisis• If Gaddafi is toppled quickly the oil price will fall back, but a
smaller MENA risk premium will continue to linger• There is a clear risk that Libya will experience an extended civil
war during which the oil price could trade close to $120/b• If MENA contagion takes place with unrest in other large oil
producing countries, the oil price could surpass the 2008 high
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Likely further Chinese efforts to curb inflation and lowered growth
targets in the 2011-2015 five year plan cool down sectorsentiment to some extent
• However, tight supply, pre-summer restocking and solid globalexpansion is likely to support elevated prices
• A prolonged MENA crisis is likely to have a negative impact onindustrial metals demand through lowered global growthexpectations
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • We remain bullish gold as the MENA crisis continues and the
European sovereign debt crisis approaches another decisivemoment
• Despite commodity driven inflation, central banks may continue to
refrain from hiking interest rates in order for the recovery toconsolidate further, thus creating an even more favourableenvironment for gold
• Exceptionally strong physical silver demand has made COMEXinventories fall to post-2006 lows and has pushed the futurescurve into backwardation
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Evidence that the current La Niña event has passed its peak and
started to weaken are growing stronger• We expect 2011 and the second half in particular to be dominated
by rising production estimates and falling prices in general• However, for several crops both more acreage and favourable
crop development conditions are needed in order to start buildinginventories again
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.
N
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices (price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)=
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
feb-11
mar-11
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Agriculture
=Sector performance last month (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Winners & Losers last month (closing prices, %)=
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
US Nat. Gas
Wheat
Sugar
Soybeans
Palladium
PlatinumSteel
Copper
Lead
Aluminium
CO2 (EUA)Zinc
Power, Cont.WTI
Gold
Nickel
US Heat. OilTin
Power, NordicCorn
US Gasoline
Brent
Coffe, Arabica
Cocoa
Silver
Cotton
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`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ==
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 2/20
SEB Commodity Research
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SEB Commodity Research
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~= ãçêÉ= ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ= TBI= áå= íìêå= êÉÇìÅáåÖ= çìê=äçåÖ=íÉêã=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=ëäáÖÜíäóK==eáëíçêáÅ~ääóI= êÉÅÉëëáçåë= Ü~îÉ= ~äï~óë= ÑçääçïÉÇ=çáä= éêáÅÉ= ëÜçÅâëK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= çáä= éêáÅÉë=Ü~îÉ=ê~ääáÉÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜÉå=OPB=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êI=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ= íç=íÜÉ=jbk^=ÅêáëáëI=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ=Ü~êÇäó=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=ëìÅÜ=~=ëáíì~íáçå=àìëí=óÉíI=~ë=íÜáë=ïçìäÇ= íóéáÅ~ääó= êÉèìáêÉ= éêáÅÉë= íç= ê~éáÇäó=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=Äó=~í=äÉ~ëí=NMMBK=píáääI=ÅìêêÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=êÉéêÉëÉåí=~=ÜÉ~îó=ÄìêÇÉå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=lb`aÛë=ëíáää=êÉä~íáîÉäó=Ñê~ÖáäÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=êÉÅçîÉêóK=o~íÜÉê=íÜ~å=ëìÖÖÉëí=~=ëéÉÅáÑáÅ=äÉîÉä=Éñáëíë=~í=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=Ü~ë=~=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜI=ïÉ=~êÖìÉ=áåëíÉ~Ç=íÜ~í=~=Öê~Çì~ä=éêçÅÉëë=Éñáëíë=
Äó=ïÜáÅÜ=ÉîÉêó=ANMLÄ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=êÉÇìÅÉë=~ååì~ä=ÖäçÄ~ä=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=Äó=MKNJMKOB=EíÜÉ= rp= cÉÇÉê~ä= oÉëÉêîÉ= Éëíáã~íÉë= MKOBFK=qÜÉêÉÑçêÉI= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ~= ãçêÉ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~ääó=
àìëíáÑá~ÄäÉ=AVMLÄI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=éêáÅÉ=çÑ=ANNTLÄI=áÑ=ëìëí~áåÉÇI=ëÜçìäÇ=êÉÇìÅÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=ïçêäÇïáÇÉ=Äó=~ë= ãìÅÜ= ~ë= MKRBK= eçïÉîÉêI= áÑ= áí= ÅçåíáåìÉë=ìéï~êÇë= íçï~êÇë= ~åÇ=êÉã~áåë= ~êçìåÇ= ANRMLÄ=Ñçê= ~å= ÉñíÉåÇÉÇ= éÉêáçÇI= ïÉ= ïçìäÇ= ÉñéÉÅí=ëÉêáçìë=ÉÑÑÉÅíë=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜK==jbk^= ìåêÉëí= ÄÉÖ~å= ÇêáîáåÖ= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= éêáÅÉë=ÜáÖÜÉê=áå=g~åì~êóI=ïáíÜ=qìåáëá~å=éêÉëáÇÉåí=_Éå=^äá= ÄÉÅçãáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ~ìíçÅê~í= íç= Ñ~ää= çå=g~åì~êó= NQK= fåëéáêÉÇ= Äó= qìåáëá~= íÜÉ= ìéêáëáåÖ=ëéêÉ~Ç=íÜêçìÖÜçìí= íÜÉ=êÉÖáçå= ÖÉåÉê~ääó=~åÇ=íç=
bÖóéí= áå= é~êíáÅìä~ê= ïÜÉêÉ= íÜÉ= íÜêÉ~í= íç=bìêçéÉ~å= çáä= ëìééäó= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= pìÉò= `~å~ä=~åÇ= íÜÉ= prjba=éáéÉäáåÉ= ~ë= ïÉää= ~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=êáëâ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ìéêáëáåÖ=ïçìäÇ=ëéêÉ~Ç=íç=ã~àçê=çáä=éêçÇìÅÉêë=ÇêçîÉ= _êÉåí= ÅêìÇÉ= ~ÄçîÉ= ANMMLÄ= ~í=íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ= g~åì~êóK= mêÉëáÇÉåí= eçëåá= jìÄ~ê~â=ÑäÉÇ=bÖóéí=çå=cÉÄêì~êó=NN=äÉ~îáåÖ=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉí=íç=êÉÑçÅìë= çå= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= çáä= éêçÇìÅáåÖ=Åçìåíêó= áå= ïÜáÅÜ= íÜÉ= êÉÖáãÉ= ~ééÉ~êÉÇ= íç= ÄÉ=äçëáåÖ=ÅçåíêçäI=iáÄó~K=tÜÉå=jì~ãã~ê=d~ÇÇ~Ñá=éêçîÉÇ=äÉëë=ïáääáåÖ=íç=äÉ~îÉ=çÑÑáÅÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=Üáë= qìåáëá~å= ~åÇ= bÖóéíá~å= ÅçìåíÉêé~êíáÉëI= íÜÉ=
ëáíì~íáçå= ê~éáÇäó= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ= áåíç= Åáîáä= ï~ê=ïáíÜ= ~êãó= ìåáíë= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= àçáåáåÖ= íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçå= ~åÇ= äçó~äáëíë= ÄÉáåÖ= ÑçêÅÉÇ= Ä~Åâ= çå=íÜÉ=Å~éáí~ä=qêáéçäáK=`çåëÉèìÉåíäóI=çáä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ä~êÖÉäó= ÖêçìåÇ= íç= ~= Ü~äí= ~ë= ÑçêÉáÖå= éÉêëçååÉä=ïÉêÉ=Éî~Åì~íÉÇK=^í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=cÉÄêì~êóI=p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=éêçÇìÅíáçå=íç=ãÉÉí=íÜÉ=iáÄó~å=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ëÜçêíÑ~ääK===få= cÉÄêì~êóI= íÜÉ= _êÉåíJtqf= ëéêÉ~Ç= íê~ÇÉÇ= ~ë=ÜáÖÜ= ~ë= ANVKQULÄI= ÇìÉ= íç= áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= íç= íê~åëéçêí= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= Ñêçã=
`ìëÜáåÖI= íÜÉ= éêáÅáåÖ= éçáåí= Ñçê= tqfI= íç=ÅçåëìãÉêëK= fåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= áåÑäçïëI= íóéáÅ~ääó= Ñêçã=çáä= ÑáÉäÇë= áå= kçêíÜ= a~âçí~= ~åÇ= `~å~Çá~å= çáä=ë~åÇëI= Éñ~ÅÉêÄ~íÉÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäóK=aìÉ= íç= áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí= çìíÄçìåÇ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=ãìëí=ÄÉ=íê~åëéçêíÉÇ=Äó=ê~áä=~åÇ=êç~Ç=íç= êÉÑáåÉêë= áå= íÜÉ= dìäÑ= çÑ= jÉñáÅçI= ïÜáÅÜ= áë=ÅçëíäóK= qÜÉêÉÑçêÉI= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= áå= içìáëá~å~= ~êÉ=ÅìêêÉåíäó= áå= äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉáê= _êÉåí=ÅçìåíÉêé~êíëK=mêçàÉÅíë= íç= áãéêçîÉ= çìíÄçìåÇ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=Ñêçã=`ìëÜáåÖ=~êÉ=éä~ååÉÇ=Äìí=~êÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=Ñêçã=ÅçãéäÉíáçåK==
qç= ëìãã~êáëÉ= ã~àçê= çáä= ã~êâÉí= êÉéçêíë= áå=cÉÄêì~êó= ïÉ= ÅçåÅäìÇÉ= íÜ~í= ÇÉã~åÇ= êÉîáëáçåë=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 4/20
SEB Commodity Research
P
ïÉêÉ= ÄìääáëÜ= ~Åêçëë= íÜÉ= Äç~êÇK= qÜÉ=bf^=ÄÉÖ~å=Äó= ê~áëáåÖ= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó=NRM= âÄLÇ= íç=USKTO=ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=Äó= NQM=âÄLÇ=íç= UUKNS=ãÄLÇK= qÜÉ= fb^= ÑçääçïÉÇ= ëìáíI= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= OMNM=ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= VM= âÄLÇ= íç= UTKUM= ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN=ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= NQM= âÄLÇ= íç= UVKPM= ãÄLÇK= lmb =̀
ìéÖê~ÇÉÇ= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= ORM= âÄLÇ= íç= USKPQ=ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=Äó= QOM=âÄLÇ=íç= UTKTQ=ãÄLÇK= dÉåÉê~ääóI= êÉîáëáçåë= ïÉêÉ= ÇìÉ= íç= ãçêÉ=éçëáíáîÉ=îáÉïë=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=fb^I=çáä=ëìééäó=êçëÉ=RMM=âÄLÇ=áå=g~åì~êó=íç=UUKRM= ãÄLÇK= fí= ï~ë= ~äëç= êÉéçêíÉÇ= íÜ~í= lmb`=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉ= ëé~êÉ= Å~é~Åáíó= ï~ë= QKT= ãÄLÇK= lb`a=áåÇìëíêó=ëíçÅâë=ÑÉää=íç=~=OJóÉ~ê=äçï=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=Äìí= êÉã~áå= îÉêó= ÜáÖÜ= Ñêçã= ~å= ÜáëíçêáÅ~ä=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉK==
Monthly global demand estimates = 2010
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)
2011
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)IEA 87.80 +90 89.30 +140
EIA 86.72 +150 88.16 +140
OPEC 86.34 +250 87.74 +420
=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë= ENNMPMPFW=qÜÉ=ÑçêãÉê=íçé=äáåÉ=~åÇ= íÜÉ=ãáÇJê~åÖÉLãáÇJÄçÇó= ~í= ~êçìåÇ= ANMSJNNNLÄ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ïçêâ=~ë=íÜÉ=éêáã~êó=ëìééçêíJ~êÉ~=ïÜáäÉ=çîÉêÜÉ~Ç= cáÄç= éêçàÉÅíáçåLêÉíê~ÅÉãÉåí= ~í= ANONKRMJNOPKRMLÄ= áë= íÜÉ= ~ííê~Åíáçå= ~êÉ~= ëÜçìäÇ= íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí=ANNVKUMLÄ= ÜáÖÜ= óáÉäÇ= íç= ÄìóáåÖ= éêÉëëìêÉK=^ÄëÉåí= ~=Ü~äí=áå=íÜÉ=äçï=ANOMëI=íÜÉêÉ=áë=êáëâ=çÑ=~å=ÉñíÉåëáçå=íçï~êÇë=íÜÉ=OMMU=ANQTKRMLÄ=éÉ~âK=
=kçêÇáÅ=mçïÉê
==
cÉÄêì~êó=ï~ë=~Ö~áå=ÅçäÇ=ïáíÜ=ÜáÖÜI=ëí~ÄäÉ=ëéçí=éêáÅÉëK=aÉëéáíÉ=äçï=íÉãéÉê~íìêÉë=íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=éêáÅÉ= ëéáâÉë= ÇìÉ= íç= ÜáÖÜ= åìÅäÉ~ê= éçïÉê=~î~áä~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= ~ÄëÉåÅÉ= çÑ= ÄçííäÉåÉÅâë= çê=éêçÄäÉãë= áå= íÜÉ= íê~åëãáëëáçå= ÖêáÇK=píêçåÖ= ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë= ëìééçêíÉÇ=ÄçíÜ= äçåÖÉê= kçêÇáÅ= Åçåíê~Åíë=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåÉåí~ä=éçïÉê=ã~êâÉíë=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~â=ÜóÇêç= Ä~ä~åÅÉ= íçÖÉíÜÉê= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ÅçäÇ= ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÉåëìêÉÇ=~=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ÜáÖÜ=éêçãéí=ÅìêîÉK==
=póëíÉã= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= áå=cÉÄêì~êó=~îÉê~ÖÉÇ= bro=SQKQSLjtÜ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= pïÉÇáëÜ= éêáÅÉ= ~êÉ~= àìëí=~ÄçîÉ= ~í= bro= SQKSRLjtÜK= ^= ÜìÖÉ= éêÉãáìã=ëíáää=Éñáëíë=áå=íÜÉ=kçêÇáÅ=ëéçí=ã~êâÉí=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=áíë=bìêçéÉ~å=éÉÉêI=ïáíÜ=dÉêã~å=ëéçí=éêáÅÉë=~îÉê~ÖáåÖ= bro= RMKUSLjtÜ= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇK=kçêÇáÅ=éêçÇìÅÉêë=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=éêáÅÉ=íÜÉáê=ï~íÉê= ÜáÖÜäóI= ÇêáîáåÖ= éêáÅÉë= çÑ= ÜóÇêç= éçïÉê=ÖÉåÉê~íáçå=ï~ó=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=Åçëí=çÑ=Åç~ä=ÖÉåÉê~íÉÇ=éçïÉêK==
få= íÜÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= ã~êâÉí= íÜÉ= ÅìêîÉ= êÉã~áåë= áå=ëíêçåÖ= Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçå= ÑçääçïáåÖ= íÜÉ= ÅçäÇ=ïáåíÉêK= nOJNN= Ö~áåÉÇ= bro= PKTRLjtÜ= áå=
cÉÄêì~êó= íç= ÅäçëÉ= ~í= bro= RQKPMLjtÜ= çå= íÜÉ=ä~ëí=Ç~ó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=ïÜáäÉ=voJNO=Ö~áåÉÇ=bro=NKQMLjtÜ= íç= ÅäçëÉ= ~í= bro= QTKTRLjtÜK= tÉ=ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= éêçãéí= éêáÅÉë= íç= ÅçãÉ= Ççïå= çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜëI=Äìí=çåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëÉ~ëçå~ääó=Ñ~ääáåÖ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=~ÇîÉåí=çÑ=ëéêáåÖK=
eçïÉîÉêI= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= êÉã~áå= ÉñíêÉãÉäó=êçÄìëí=ïáíÜ=~=ä~êÖÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=íÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=EÅìêêÉåíäó=JQP=qtÜF=~åÇ=îÉêó=ëíêçåÖ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉëK=iççâáåÖ= ~í= íÜÉ= ÅìêîÉI= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= äççâë= ãçëí=~ííê~ÅíáîÉ= Ñêçã= voJNO= ~åÇ= çìíI= ÉëéÉÅá~ääó= Ñçê=pïÉÇáëÜ=ÅçåëìãÉêë=ÖáîÉå=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖ=pbhK==
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 5/20
SEB Commodity Research
Q
CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price (NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120130
140
150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
=
US crude oil inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2006-2010 avg.
2010
2011
=
OIL PRODUCTS=
Gasoline and heating oil prices (NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)=
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NYMEX Gasoline
NYMEX Heating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2006-2010 avg.
Gasoline 2011
Distillate fuel oil 2006-2010 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2011
=
POWER=
Nordic power price (Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Continental power price (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 6/20
SEB Commodity Research
R
CO2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price (ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
US natural gas prices (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
FUTURES CURVES=
WTI (NYMEX, $/b)=
92
9394
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
=
Brent (ICE, $/b)=
99100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
==
Heating oil (NYMEX, ¢/gal)=
270
274
278
282
286
290
294
298
302
306
310
314
318
322
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
11-01-3111-02-28
11-03-04
=
US natural gas (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
3,75
4,00
4,25
4,50
4,75
5,00
5,25
5,50
5,75
6,00
6,25
6,50
apr-11
aug-11
dec-11
apr-12
aug-12
dec-12
apr-13
aug-13
dec-13
apr-14
aug-14
dec-14
apr-15
aug-15
dec-15
apr-16
aug-16
dec-16
apr-17
aug-17
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 7/20
SEB Commodity Research
S
=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
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ÅçåëìãÉêë= ëáÇÉäáåÉÇ= éÉåÇáåÖ= ÄÉííÉê= ÄìóáåÖ=çééçêíìåáíáÉë= ~åÇ= ëÉîÉê~ä= ~ÇÇáíáçå~ä=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~ä=Ñ~ÅíçêëK=`ÜáåÉëÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=Ü~îÉ=äçïÉêÉÇ=íÜÉáê=~ååì~ä=ÖêçïíÜ=í~êÖÉí=Ñêçã=UB=íç=TB=~ë= é~êí=çÑ= íÜÉáê=OMNNJOMNR= ÑáîÉ= óÉ~ê=éä~åI=êÉÑçÅìëáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=~ííÉåíáçå=çå=íÜÉ=èì~äáíó=çÑ=ÖêçïíÜ= Ç~ãéÉåáåÖ= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ÅçåÅÉêåáåÖ=äçåÖ= íÉêã= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~ä= ÇÉã~åÇK= få= íÜÉ=ëÜçêí=íÉêãI=ïÉ=ÉñéÉÅí=ÑìêíÜÉê=`ÜáåÉëÉ=ÅçìåíÉêJáåÑä~íáçå~êó= áåáíá~íáîÉë= íÜáë= óÉ~êI= ~äíÜçìÖÜ=íáãáåÖ= áë= ìåéêÉÇáÅí~ÄäÉK= tÉ= ~äëç= ëÉÉ= ~=ãçêÉ=êÉëíêáÅíÉÇ= çìíäççâ= ÇìÉ= íç= íÜÉ= åÉÖ~íáîÉ=
áãéäáÅ~íáçåë= çÑ= íÜÉ= jbk =̂ Åêáëáë= Ñçê= ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜK= eçïÉîÉêI= ÇçïåëáÇÉ= áë= êÉëíêáÅíÉÇ= Äó=ëìééäó= ëáÇÉ= äáãáí~íáçåë= ~åÇ= ~å= Éñé~åÇáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ä~ëÉK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=`ÜáåÉëÉ=ÄìóÉêë=~êÉ=êÉJÉåíÉêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉí=~ÑíÉê=ãçåíÜJäçåÖ=kÉï=vÉ~ê=ÅÉäÉÄê~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=êÉëíçÅâáåÖ=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=áåíÉåëáÑó= ÄÉÑçêÉ= ëìããÉêK= lîÉê~ääI= ïÉ= ÉñéÉÅí=áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= íç= ÅçåëçäáÇ~íÉ= íÜáë= óÉ~ê= ~í=íÜÉáê=ÅìêêÉåí=ÜáÖÜ=äÉîÉä=Äìí=ïáíÜ=~=ã~àçê=êáëâ=çÑ= íÉãéçê~êó= ëÉíÄ~ÅâëK= ^= éêçäçåÖÉÇ= çê=ïçêëÉåáåÖ= jbk^= Åêáëáë= ïçìäÇ= íìêå= íÜÉ=çìíäççâ= ãçêÉ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= ïáíÜ= ÜáÖÜ= çáä= éêáÅÉë=ìåÇÉêãáåáåÖ=ÖäçÄ~ä=êÉÅçîÉêó=éêçëéÉÅíëK==
LME prices and inventories last month
-6-5
-4-3
-2-1
01
23
45
67
8
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Lead Ti
n
Steel
Price (%) Inventories (%)
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8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 8/20
SEB Commodity Research
T
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ïÜáäÉ= Å~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ÇÉéêÉëëÉÇ=~í=MKRBK=wáåÅ=ëíáää=~ééÉ~êë=îìäåÉê~ÄäÉ=~í=äÉ~ëí=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ïáíÜ=áåîÉåíçêáÉë=ìåäáâÉäó=íç=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉ= ~ë= ëìééäó= ÖêçïíÜ= çìíëíêáéë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=áå=ÇÉã~åÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=ïÉ=~êÉ=ÅìêêÉåíäó=ëäáÖÜíäó=äÉëë= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= ÇìÉ= íç= áåîÉëíçêë= ëÉÉâáåÖ= ëÉÅíçê=î~äìÉ= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= ïÉ= ïçìäÇ= ÄÉ= ÇçáåÖ= ëç= áå=~äìãáåáìã=ê~íÜÉê=íÜ~å=òáåÅ=ÇìÉ=íç=áíë=ëíêçåÖÉê=ëìééçêí= Ñêçã= ã~êÖáå~ä= éêçÇìÅíáçå= ÅçëíëK= qÜÉ=òáåÅ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçìäÇ=éçíÉåíá~ääó=ãçîÉ=áåíç=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå= OMNOI= íìêåáåÖ= íÜÉ= éáÅíìêÉ= ãçêÉ= ÄìääáëÜK=`ìêêÉåí=ã~áå=ìéëáÇÉ=EÇçïåëáÇÉF=êáëâ=áë=ïÉ~âÉê=
EëíêçåÖÉêF= íÜ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ëìééäó= ÖêçïíÜK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë=ENNMPMPFW =wáåÅ=êÉã~áåë=ê~åÖÉJÄçìåÇ= àìëí= ÄÉäçï= íÜÉ= ~äêÉ~Çó= ãçêÉ= íÜ~å= çåÉ= óÉ~ê=äçåÖ=äáåÉ=çÑ=êÉëáëí~åÅÉK=pÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉã~åÇ=Éñáëíë=Äìí=éêáÅÉë= ~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=Çê~ïå=íçé= äáåÉ=~êÉ=åÉÉÇÉÇ= íç=ÑçêÅÉ=ÄìóÉêë=íç=ëÜçï=ëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=áåáíá~íáîÉ=íç=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉ=íÜÉ=OMNM=AOTPSLí=íçéK=_É~êáëÜäó=ÄêÉ~âáåÖ=ÄÉäçï=íÜÉ=NOJãçåíÜ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= EAOOVRLíF= ïçìäÇ= äÉëëÉå= íÜÉ=éêçÄ~Äáäáíó= çÑ= ~= ÑêÉëÜ= ÜáÖÜ= ëçãÉïÜÉêÉ= ÄÉíïÉÉå=AOTPTLí=~åÇ=APOTRLíK==
píÉÉä
=
=ijb=ëíÉÉä=ÄáääÉíë=Ü~îÉ=ÅäçëÉÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=rpa=RPTJRTPLí=áå=cÉÄêì~êó=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=j~êÅÜI=ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= éÉêáçÇ= NKMB= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í= rpa= RRVLíK=`ÜáåÉëÉ= SOB= áêçå= çêÉ= ÑÉää= ëäáÖÜíäó= EJQKNBF= çîÉê=íÜÉ= éÉêáçÇ= ~ë= ÇáÇ= bìêçéÉ~å= ÇçãÉëíáÅ= ëÅê~é=éêáÅÉë=EJRKPBFK=eçïÉîÉêI=`ÜáåÉëÉ=SOB=áêçå=çêÉ=éêáÅÉë=êÉã~áå=îÉêó=ÜáÖÜ=EANTULíF=ÜáííáåÖ=~=éçëíJÅêáëáë=ÜáÖÜ=çÑ=ANVMKSLí=ãáÇJcÉÄêì~êóK=píáääI=ãçêÉ=ÑáåáëÜÉÇ= éêçÇìÅíë= ã~ÇÉ= Ö~áåë= çîÉê= íÜÉ= éÉêáçÇ=ïáíÜ= pçìíÜ= bìêçéÉ~å= ÇçãÉëíáÅ= eo`= êáëáåÖ=NMKUB= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= ïçêäÇ= eo`= áåÇÉñ= RKSBK= qÜÉ=êÉÅçîÉêó= áå=eo =̀ éêáÅÉë= éêçÄ~Ääó= êÉÑäÉÅíë= îÉêó=
ëíêçåÖ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=EmjfI=fpjF=áå=cÉÄêì~êóK=jçëí=êÉéçêíë=~åÇ=Ç~í~=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=îáÉï= íÜ~í= ëíÉÉä= ÇÉã~åÇ= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= êÉÅçîÉê=~äçåÖëáÇÉ= íÜÉ= ÖäçÄ~ä= ÉÅçåçãó= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= áí=êÉã~áåë=ìåÅäÉ~ê=íç=ïÜ~í=ÉñíÉåí=ÅìêêÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇ=ïáää= ÄÉ= ã~áåí~áåÉÇK= píÉÉä= éêáÅÉë= Ü~îÉ= êáëÉå=ãìÅÜ= Ñ~ëíÉê= íÜ~å=ëíÉÉä=ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= Åçëíë=ïáíÜ=ãáääë= âÉÉå= íç= çÑÑëÉí= äçëëÉë= çîÉê= íÜÉ= é~ëí= óÉ~êK=jáää= ã~êÖáåë= ~êÉ= ãìÅÜ= ÄÉííÉê= íÜ~å= íÜÉó= Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå= Ñçê= ~= äçåÖ= íáãÉ= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= ïÉëíÉêå=ìíáäáò~íáçå=êÉã~áåë=äçïK=tÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí=ãçëí=ëíÉÉä= éêçÇìÅÉêë= íç= ÄÉ= ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê=
éêçÇìÅíáçå= áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK= få= nìÉÉåëä~åÇ=êÉëíêìÅíìêáåÖ= ~Åíáîáíó= áë= ÅçåíáåìáåÖ= íç= êÉëíçêÉ=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 9/20
SEB Commodity Research
U
áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= ~åÇ= ÜçìëáåÖ= ~ÑíÉê= êÉÅÉåí= ëÉîÉêÉ=ÑäççÇáåÖK=qÜÉ=êÉÖáçå=áë=ëíáää=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅáåÖ=áíë=ê~áå=~åÇ=ëíçêã= ëÉ~ëçå= ïÜáÅÜ= Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=Éñ~ÖÖÉê~íÉÇ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=Äó=i~=ká¥~K=tÉ=ÜçéÉ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~íÜÉê= éÜÉåçãÉåçå= ïáää= ïÉ~âÉå= íçï~êÇë=ãáÇJOMNNK=^ìëíê~äá~å=ÅçâáåÖ=Åç~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=áë=
ëíáää= ëÉîÉêÉäó= áãé~ÅíÉÇK= tÉ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= ëÉ~ÄçêåÉ= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= ã~êâÉí= íç=êÉã~áå= îÉêó= íáÖÜí= Ñçê= ã~åó= ãçåíÜë= óÉíK= qÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãó=ëíáää=Öêçïë=ëíêçåÖäó=ïáíÜ=~=îÉêó=ê~éáÇ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáçå= áå=íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=ëçäáÇ=Ö~áåë=áå=bìêçéÉK= lîÉê~ääI= ïÉ= ã~áåí~áå= ~= éçëáíáîÉ= îáÉï=çå=ëíÉÉä=éêáÅÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇ=ïáíÜ=ëíê~áåë= áå= áêçå= çêÉ=~åÇ= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= çå=íÜÉ= çåÉ=Ü~åÇ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=çå=íÜÉ=çíÜÉêK=_~ëÉÇ=çå=ÅìêêÉåí= éçëáíáîÉ= ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= áå= bìêçéÉ= ïÉ=ÉñéÉÅí=qìêâáëÜ=ãáääë=íç=êÉíìêå=çå=íÜÉ=Äìó=ëáÇÉI=äáãáíáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ÇçïåëáÇÉ= áå= bìêçéÉ~å= ëÅê~é=
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8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 10/20
SEB Commodity Research
V
ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Aluminium inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SHFE
COMEXLME
==
COPPER=
Copper price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Copper inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SHFE
COMEX
LME
=
NICKEL=
Nickel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
3500040000
45000
50000
55000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Nickel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 11/20
SEB Commodity Research
NM
ZINC=
Zinc price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Zinc inventories (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=
Lead price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Lead inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
300000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
TIN=
Tin price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
30000
33000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Tin inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 12/20
SEB Commodity Research
NN
STEEL=
Steel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10
nov-10
jan-11
mar-11
=
Steel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
jul-08
sep-08
nov-08
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10
nov-10
jan-11
=
FUTURES CURVES=
Aluminium (LME, $/t)=
2500
2525
25502575
2600
2625
2650
2675
2700
2725
2750
2775
2800
2825
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
=
Copper (LME, $/t)=
8300
8400
850086008700
8800
89009000
9100
9200
93009400
9500
9600
97009800
9900
10000
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
==
Nickel (LME, $/t)=
22500
23000
23500
24000
24500
25000
25500
2600026500
27000
27500
28000
28500
29000
29500
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
=
Zinc (LME, $/t)=
2325
2350
2375
2400
2425
2450
2475
2500
2525
2550
2575
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 13/20
SEB Commodity Research
NO
=PRECIOUS METALS==
få= çêÇÉê= íç= ÇêáîÉ= ÖçäÇ= éêáÅÉë= ÉîÉå= ÜáÖÜÉêI=éçäáíáÅ~ä= áåëí~Äáäáíó= áå= jbk =̂ ãìëí= ÉáíÜÉê=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ÑìêíÜÉê= çê= êÉã~áå=ÜáÖÜ= äçåÖ= ÉåçìÖÜ=Ñçê= ëíêçåÖÉê= çáä= éêáÅÉë= íç= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= ëäçï=
lb`a= êÉÅçîÉêóK= `ìêêÉåí= áåÇáÅ~íáçåë= ëìÖÖÉëí=íÜÉ= Åêáëáë= Ü~ë= åçí= óÉí= éÉ~âÉÇK= tÉ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=êÉã~áå=ÄìääáëÜ=Ñêçã=~=í~ÅíáÅ~ä=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉK=qÜÉ=ãçëí= ÄìääáëÜ= ëÅÉå~êáç= ïçìäÇ= áåîçäîÉ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ìåêÉëí= áå= p~ìÇá= ^ê~Äá~I= fê~å= çê=^äÖÉêá~K=^ÇÇáíáçå~ä= ëìééçêí= áë=éêçîáÇÉÇ=Äó=~=êÉåÉïÉÇ= ÑçÅìë= çå= bìêçéÉ~å= ëçîÉêÉáÖå= ÇÉÄí=éêáçê= íç= íÜÉ= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ä~íÉ= j~êÅÜ= ÇÉÅáëáçå= íç=ÇçìÄäÉ= íÜÉ= äÉåÇáåÖ=Å~é~Åáíó=çÑ= íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=cáå~åÅá~ä= pí~Äáäáíó= c~ÅáäáíóI= ïÜáÅÜ= äççâë=åÉÅÉëë~êóK= tÉ= ~äëç= ÉñéÉÅí= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåÑä~íáçå=ÜÉÇÖáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ= íç= êÉã~áå=ëíêçåÖK=qÜÉêÉ= ~êÉ=
ÜçïÉîÉê= ~äëç= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= Ñ~Åíçêë= ÜçäÇáåÖ= Ä~Åâ=ÖçäÇK=mçëáíáîÉ=lb`a=Ç~í~=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=ëìÖÖÉëí=íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãáÅ= êÉÅçîÉêó= êÉã~áåë= çå= íê~ÅâK=cìêíÜÉêI= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ~ìíÜçêáíáÉë= ëç= Ñ~ê=~ééÉ~ê= íç=Ü~îÉ= ëìÅÅÉÉÇÉÇ=áå=ÅççäáåÖ= íÜÉ=äçÅ~ä= ÉÅçåçãó=ïáíÜçìí= íêáÖÖÉêáåÖ= ~= Ü~êÇ= ä~åÇáåÖK= lìê=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=îáÉï=~äëç=êÉã~áåë=ÄìääáëÜ=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ= íÜêÉ~íÉåáåÖ= ÖäçÄ~ä= áåÑä~íáçå= ÇìÉ= íç= ÜáÖÜ=äáèìáÇáíóI= ÇÉã~åÇ= Ñêçã= ^ëá~å= ÅçìåíêáÉëI=áåíÉêÉëí= Ñêçã= ÅÉåíê~ä= Ä~åâÛë= ëÉÉâáåÖ= íç=ÇáîÉêëáÑóI=~åÇ=lb`a=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄíK=eáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë= ÅçìäÇ= ~äëç= éçëíéçåÉ= éä~ååÉÇ= áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= ÖáîÉå= íÜÉ=ÇçïåëáÇÉ=éêÉëëìêÉ= íÜÉó=
ÉñÉêí= çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~ÅíáîáíóK=`çåíáåìÉÇ=äçï= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ~êÉ= ÖÉåÉê~ääó= ÄìääáëÜ= Ñçê=ÖçäÇK==dçäÇ=Ü~ë=ê~ääáÉÇ=TKVB=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=g~åì~êóI=ÜáííáåÖ= ~= åÉï= êÉÅçêÇ= ÜáÖÜ= áå= É~êäó= j~êÅÜ=EANQQNKUULçòíI=ëíáää=êáëáåÖ=~í=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=çÑ=ïêáíáåÖFI=ïáíÜ=ë~ÑÉ=Ü~îÉå=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=áå=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=íÜÉ= ÉëÅ~ä~íáåÖ= jbk^= ÅêáëáëK= jÉ~åïÜáäÉI=mçêíìÖìÉëÉ= ÄçåÇ=óáÉäÇë= Ü~îÉ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç= êáëÉ=ïáíÜ=NMJóÉ~ê=óáÉäÇë=ëìÄëí~åíá~ääó=ÉñÅÉÉÇáåÖ=TBI=~å= ìåëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ= ëáíì~íáçå= ÉåÇìêÉÇ= Äó= ÄçíÜ=
dêÉÉÅÉ=~åÇ=fêÉä~åÇ=ÉîÉå=áÑ=Ñçê=çåäó=íïç=ïÉÉâëK=mêÉëëìêÉ=íç=~ÅÅÉéí=ÄÉáåÖ=Ä~áäÉÇ=çìí=áë=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖK=eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅáëáçå=íç=Éñé~åÇ=bcpc=äÉåÇáåÖ=Å~é~Åáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=~í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=j~êÅÜI= ëìÅÜ= ~= êÉèìÉëí= ã~ó= éêçÄ~Ääó= åçí= ÄÉ=ã~ÇÉ=íáää=~ÑíÉêï~êÇëK=tçêêáÉë=~êÉ=~äëç=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=íÜ~í=fêÉä~åÇ=ã~ó=åÉÉÇ=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=ëìééçêíK==`çããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉ= ÇêáîÉå= áåÑä~íáçå= áë=ÄÉÅçãáåÖ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= Ñçê= íÜÉ= lb`a= ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ= ÅÉåíê~ä= Ä~åâë= ~êÉ= ëíáää= ãçåáíçêáåÖ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= ê~íÜÉê= íÜ~å= ~Åíì~ääó= ê~áëáåÖ=
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lìíÑäçï= Ñêçã= éÜóëáÅ~ä= ÖçäÇ= bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áå= cÉÄêì~êó= Äìí= ~í= ~= ãìÅÜ= äçïÉê=äÉîÉä= íÜ~å= áå= g~åì~êóK= qçí~ä= ÜçäÇáåÖë= Ü~îÉ=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=NR=íçååÉë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=g~åì~êó=~åÇ=
åçï= ëí~åÇ= ~í= OMNS= íçååÉë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ~=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=êÉÅçêÇ=ÜáÖÜ=çÑ=ONNR=íçååÉëK==páäîÉê=Ü~ë=ê~ääáÉÇ=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ=ëíêçåÖäó=íÜ~å=ÖçäÇI=Ö~áåáåÖ= ~= ã~ëëáîÉ= OVKRB= ëáåÅÉ= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ=g~åì~êóI=íç=~=åÉï=éçëíJNVUM=ÜáÖÜ=çÑ=APSKSNLçòí=áå= É~êäó= j~êÅÜ= Eëíáää= êáëáåÖ= ~í= íÜÉ= íáãÉ= çÑ=ïêáíáåÖFK= ^ÑíÉê= ÇÉÅäáåáåÖ= áå= g~åì~êóI= éÜóëáÅ~ä=ëáäîÉê=bqc=ÜçäÇáåÖë=êÉÅçîÉêÉÇ=èìáÅâäó=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ= çÑ= g~åì~êóI= êáëáåÖ= PRR= íçååÉë= íç= NQVSM=íçååÉëK= qÜÉ= ëáäîÉê= ÑìíìêÉë= ÅìêîÉ= Ü~ë= áå= Ñ~Åí=Ñ~ääÉå= áåíç= Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçåI= ~= îÉêó= ê~êÉ=
éÜÉåçãÉåçå=áå=íÜÉ=éêÉÅáçìë=ãÉí~äë=ã~êâÉíI=~ë=éêçÇìÅÉêë= ÖÉåÉê~ääó= ÜÉÇÖÉ= éêçÇìÅíáçå= ~í=ÅìêêÉåí=ÜáÖÜ=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=`ljbu=áåîÉåíçêáÉë=Ñ~ää=íç=éçëíJOMMS=äçïëK==mä~íáåìã= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã= éêáÅÉë= Ü~îÉ= ÇáîÉêÖÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=g~åì~êóI=ïáíÜ=éä~íáåìã=ãçîáåÖ=OKPB= ÜáÖÜÉê= íç= ANUQNKRMLçòí= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã=ãçîáåÖ= MKRB= äçïÉê= íç= AUNTKUMLçòíK= mÜóëáÅ~ä=éä~íáåìã= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã= ÜçäÇáåÖë= Ü~îÉ= åçí=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=É~êäó=OMNN=çìíÑäçïë=~ë=ÖçäÇ=~åÇ=ëáäîÉêK=
=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENNMPMPFW= qÜÉ= OMMVJOMNN=íêÉåÇ=ÅÜ~ååÉä=êÉã~áåë=áå=éä~ó=ïáíÜ=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=áåÅìêêÉÇ=áå= g~åì~êó= Ñìääó=êÉé~áêÉÇK= fÑ= íÜÉ= éêáÅÉ=ãçîÉë= ÄÉäçï=êÉÅÉåí= ÜáÖÜë= Eáí= ÅìêêÉåíäó= íê~ÇÉë= ~í= àìëí= ~ÄçîÉF= ïÉ=ïçìäÇ=ëíáää=ëÉÉ=ã~àçê=éçíÉåíá~ä=Ñçê=ÑìêíÜÉê=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=ÜáííáåÖ=íÜÉ=íêÉåÇ=ÅÜ~ååÉä=íçéI=åçï= ~í= ANSPRLçòíK= ^ë= äçåÖ= ~ë= íÜÉ= ~ëÅÉåÇáåÖ= NOJãçåíÜ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= êÉã~áåë= ä~êÖÉäó= ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇI= ïÉ= ëÉÉ=äáííäÉ=êÉ~ëçå=íç=~Ä~åÇçå=çìê=ÄìääáëÜ=Å~ëÉK==
Gold and currencies vs. USD last month
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM (%)
=`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ==
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 14/20
SEB Commodity Research
NP
GOLD=
Gold price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
12001300
1400
1500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Gold to silver ratio (front month, weekly closing)=
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
7680
84
88
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
2
46
810
1214
1618
20
2224
2628
3032
3436
38
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Platinum and palladium prices (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
Palladium (left axis)
Platinum (right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt)=
1325
1350
1375
1400
1425
1450
1475
1500
1525
1550
1575
1600
1625
1650
1675
1700
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
jan-16
apr-16
jul-16
okt-16
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
=
Silver (COMEX, $/ozt)
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 15/20
SEB Commodity Research
NQ
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==
pçóÄÉ~åë= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= ¿NOVUJNQRNLÄì= áå=cÉÄêì~êó= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ= çÑ= j~êÅÜI= ÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=éÉêáçÇ=MKQB=ÜáÖÜÉê=~í=¿NQMULÄìK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç= íÜÉ= cÉÄêì~êó= t^pabI= ÖäçÄ~ä= ëçóÄÉ~å=éêçÇìÅíáçåI= ÇÉã~åÇ= ~åÇ= ÉåÇáåÖ= ëíçÅâë=Éëíáã~íÉë= ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ= çåäó= ëäáÖÜíäó= Ñêçã= g~åì~êó=Eíç= ORSKNM= ãíI= ORRKOU= ãí= ~åÇ= RUKON= ãí=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóFK= cçääçïáåÖ= ~å= áãéêçîÉÇ= pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å= ÇêçìÖÜí= ëáíì~íáçå= íÜÉ= ëìééäó= ëáÇÉ=
~ééÉ~êë= äÉëë= ïçêêóáåÖK= qÜÉ= _ê~òáäá~å= Ü~êîÉëí=Ü~ë=àìëí=ëí~êíÉÇ=ïáíÜ=^êÖÉåíáå~=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=ëççå=~åÇ= éêçëéÉÅíë= Ñçê= ÖççÇ= îçäìãÉë= ~ééÉ~êáåÖ=ëçäáÇK= päáÖÜíäó= ÑìêíÜÉê= çìíI= ïÉ= ÉñéÉÅí= ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=^ëá~å=ÇÉã~åÇ=íç=ÖáîÉ=êáëÉ=íç=ÖêÉ~íÉê=ÅçåÅÉêåë=íÜ~í=ÉñéçêíÉêë=ã~ó=Ñ~ÅÉ=ÇáÑÑáÅìäíáÉë=áå=âÉÉéáåÖ=é~ÅÉ=ïáíÜ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=áãéçêí=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=ÅçãáåÖ=óÉ~êëK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë=ENNMPMPFW=qÜÉ=íêÉåÇ=ï~ë=ÇáëêìéíÉÇ=ä~ëí=ãçåíÜ=ïáíÜ=~=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=éêáåí=óÉí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉé~áêÉÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=íçé= Eåçï= ëìééçêíF= ~í= ¿NOVNLÄì= áë= êÉëéÉÅíÉÇI= íÜÉ=êáëáåÖ=NOJãçåíÜ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=áë=çìí=çÑ=Ç~åÖÉê=~åÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=Ö~áåë=~êÉ=éçëëáÄäÉK=fÑ=¿NQVMLÄì=áë=ÄêÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=íÜÉ=OMMU=
íçé=áë=~äëç=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=îáçä~íÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=cáÄç=~ííê~Åíáçå=~í=¿NTMMLÄì=äççãáåÖK=
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
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NR
=
CORN=
Corn price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Corn year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Wheat year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
=
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)=
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Soybean year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa =̂
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
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NS
=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Coffee price (Arabica) (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220240
260
280
300
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu)=
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675
700
725
750
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
=
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu)=
770
780
790800
810
820
830840
850
860
870880
890
900
910920
930
940
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
==
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu)=
1200
1220
1240
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
1360
1380
1400
1420
1440
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
=
Sugar (CBOT, ¢/lb)=
19
20
21
22
23
24
2526
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
11-01-31
11-02-28
11-03-04
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa =̂
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
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NT
=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 8,1 2010-12-31 8,0 2010-11-30 2011-03-14
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-12-31 1,4 2010-11-30 2011-03-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 80,0 2011-03-31 78,1 2010-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 59,0 2011-02-28 57,3 2011-01-31 2011-03-24Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,0 2010-12-31 1,9 2010-09-30 2011-04-06
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,3 2010-12-31 0,3 2010-09-30 2011-04-06
CPI (%, YoY) 2,3 2011-01-31 2,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-16
CPI (%, MoM) -0,7 2011-01-31 0,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-16
Consumer confidence -10,0 2011-02-28 -11,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-23
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,2 2011-01-31 6,3 2010-12-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2011-01-31 1,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
Capacity utilization (%) 76,1 2011-01-31 76,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
Manufacturing PMI 61,4 2011-02-28 60,8 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-12-31 3,2 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,8 2010-12-31 2,6 2010-09-30 2011-03-25
CPI (%, MoM) 1,6 2011-01-31 1,5 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,4 2011-01-31 0,4 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,5 2010-12-31 102,1 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 77,5 2011-02-28 74,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-11
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 192 2011-02-28 63 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,7 2011-01-31 4,9 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,4 2011-01-31 3,3 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 89,3 2010-12-31 86,7 2010-11-30
Manufacturing PMI 52,9 2011-02-28 51,4 2011-01-31 2011-03-30
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 2,2 2010-12-31 4,9 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,3 2010-12-31 0,8 2010-09-30 2011-03-10
CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-02-28 0,0 2011-01-31 2011-03-25
CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2011-01-31 -0,3 2010-12-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,9 2010-12-31 103,3 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence 41,1 2011-01-31 40,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,5 2010-12-31 13,3 2010-11-30 2011-03-11
Manufacturing PMI 52,2 2011-02-28 52,9 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,8 2010-12-31 9,6 2010-09-30 2011-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 4,9 2011-01-31 4,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 100,5 2010-12-31 100,7 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence 100,4 2010-12-31 102,9 2010-11-30
Bank lending (%, YoY) 18,5 2011-01-31 19,9 2010-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-12-31 102,5 2010-11-30
Global manufacturing PMI 57,8 2011-02-28 57,1 2011-01-31
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research =
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seb-report-commodities-could-still-move-higher 19/20
NU
=PERFORMANCE==
Closing YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1472,85 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,4 57,8
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1385,77 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,2 42,0
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1755,41 8,3 4,0 14,7 36,4 88,9
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1639,24 13,7 9,1 17,6 27,1 44,7
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1362,88 5,7 0,7 14,4 24,3 70,8
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2202,52 1,9 7,6 3,7 33,8 158,0
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 2069,83 5,3 0,5 12,9 57,9 125,2
Baltic Dry Index 1346,00 -25,0 29,1 -37,9 -56,9 -49,8
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 104,42 14,3 17,3 17,1 30,2 64,0
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 115,97 22,4 16,2 26,9 47,7 80,7
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2600,00 5,3 2,3 12,1 17,2 4,5
Copper (LME, $/t) 9895,00 3,1 -1,5 13,4 33,8 99,5
Nickel (LME, $/t) 28800,00 16,4 1,6 22,6 29,1 90,1
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2461,00 0,3 -1,8 10,9 8,9 4,4
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 558,50 -2,0 1,1 7,9 19,8 N/A
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1428,60 0,5 6,0 1,7 26,1 151,5
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 721,25 14,7 6,3 29,0 93,9 215,3
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 800,50 0,8 -6,2 8,5 63,2 114,3Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1407,75 1,0 -1,8 8,3 51,0 137,3
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 15 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report March 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook March 8 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE March 10 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 24 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 8 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST==
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head ofCommodities
[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Katarina Johnsson Head of Corp. Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
INST. SALES Arne Boberg Head of Inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Müller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9
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=
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pb_=jÉêÅÜ~åí=_~åâáåÖK=^ää=êáÖÜíë=êÉëÉêîÉÇK====
============
pb_=`çããçÇáíáÉë=jçåíÜäó=áë=êÉäÉ~ëÉÇ=çå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=qìÉëÇ~ó=çÑ=ÉîÉêó=ãçåíÜK=