1 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

STATE CENTRE ON CLIMATE CHANGE (HIMACHAL PRADESH)

Dr. S. S. RANDHAWA

Sr. SCIENTIFIC

OFFICER

SHUBRA RANDHAWA

SCIENTIFIC

PROFESSIONAL

ISHANT RAI

PROJECT ASSOCIATE

2015

SEASONAL, MONTHLY AND

ANNUAL RAINFALL TRENDS

IN HIMACHAL PRADESH

DURING1901-2002 RAINFALL TREND HP

S T A T E C O U N C I L F O R S C I E N C E T E C H N O L O G Y A N D

E N V I R O N M E N T , S D A C O M P L E X , B - 3 4 K A S U M P T I - 1 7 1 0 0 9

2 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

Seasonal, Monthly and Annual Rainfall Trends in Himachal

Pradesh during 1901-2002

Introduction:

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of

increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice

and rising global average sea level. Most climate change models predict that global warming

will disrupt the hydrological cycle and intensify the temporal and spatial variation in

precipitation, snow melt and water availability. Evidence suggests that global climate is

changing in an unprecedented manner largely due to increase in global mean temperatures

(IPCC, 2007) and perceptible changes in precipitation patterns in many parts of the world

including India (Goswami et al., 2006). Anthropogenic warming in the last three decades and

its projected continuation may influence long term rainfall patterns impacting the availability

of water, along with the increasing occurrences of droughts and floods.

Several studies relating to changing pattern of rainfall over India have observed that there is

no clear trend of increase or decrease in average rainfall over the country (Mooley and

Parthasarthy, 1984; Thapliyal and Kulshrestha, 1991; Lal, 2001; Sinha Ray and De, 2003;

Kumar and Jain, 2010). Though the all India monsoon rainfall exhibited no significant trend

over a long period of time, pockets of significant long term rainfall changes on rainfall

changes on regional scale were identified in some studies (Jagannathan and

Parthasarathy,1973; Raghavendra,1974; Chaudhary and Abhyankar,1979; Singh and

SenRoy,2002; Kumar et al., 2005; Goswami et al.,2006. Dash et al. (2007) have found

increasing trend in monsoon and an increasing trend in the pre and post monsoon rainfall

during 1871-2002. Singh et al. (2008) have found an increasing trend in annual rainfall in

nine river basins of northwest and central India.

A significant impact of the climate change in recent years is on precipitation patterns on

regional scale. Regional and local rainfall analyses are therefore important for large country

like India because regional variations get masked in a country wide analysis. Studies have

shown that contributions of westerly disturbances to the precipitation are greater at higher

elevations in parts of the Greater Himalaya (Singh et al., 1995) and trans- Himalayan areas

(Archer and Fowler, 2004). Snow is a significant contributor to total precipitation in

Himachal Pradesh as seen in the estimated contributions to runoff in rivers which drain the

state. Singh et al. (1997) has estimated 49% of runoff resulting from snow and glacier melt in

3 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

the Chenab catchment. Similar estimate for Satluj are 60% (Singh and Jain, 2002) and for

Beas are 35% (Kumar et al., 2005). Singh and Kumar (1997) have suggested that snow and

rain contribute equally at 2000 m in some parts of the Western Himalaya. Guhathakurta and

Rajeevan (2006) have found decrease in monsoon season rainfall in Himachal Pradesh by 61

mm during last 100 years. Examining length of monsoon rainy season, Prasad and Rana

(2010) have found decrease in rainy days for the period 1974-2004 at Palampur in Himachal

Pradesh. Kumar et al. (2005) found an increasing trend in rainfall at some stations and a

decreasing trend at other stations in Himachal Pradesh. Bhutiyani et al. (2010) have found

significant decreasing trend in the monsoon precipitation over north-western Himalayas.

Data Source and Methodology:

The 101 years accumulation data on precipitation was obtained for eleven districts of

Himachal Pradesh from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. The data used for

this study is for the time period: 1901-2002 and measured in millimetre (mm). Rainfall data

for the eleven districts has been analysed for studying trends using 101 years rainfall data.

Results & Conclusion:

The trend analysis of monsoon in Himachal Pradesh has been carried out using 101 years of

rainfall data from the year 1901 to 2002. The trend analysis is carried out for the 11 districts

by using average rainfall data divided into four seasons i.e. Winter season (January-

February), Pre monsoon season (March- May), Monsoon season (June-September) and Post

monsoon season (October- December).All Himachal Pradesh monthly, seasonal and annual

rainfall series have been constructed based on the area weighted rainfall of the 11 districts of

Himachal Pradesh. The results are given in Table 1. The mean, standard deviation and

coefficient of variation are also given in the table. Mean (1901-2002) rainfall of July is

226.93mm, which is the highest and contributes 26.99% of annual rainfall (840.65mm). The

August rainfall is slightly lower and it contributes 25.60% of annual rainfall. The coefficient

of variation is higher during the months of November (1.38), December (1.00), January

(0.69) and February (0.71).

4 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

All Himachal Pradesh monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall (Rainfall in mm)

YEARS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC J-F MAM J-S O-D ANNUAL

1901 53.86 14.97 20.74 7.08 32.20 43.10 337.41 218.74 64.62 0.85 0.06 8.68 68.82 60.02 663.86 9.59 802.29

1902 1.12 7.10 19.36 29.70 26.24 86.14 261.40 165.94 100.08 9.94 6.02 0.34 8.22 75.30 613.56 16.31 713.38

1903 34.27 15.36 24.72 5.85 13.87 40.69 310.05 169.95 60.13 19.84 0.04 4.51 49.63 44.44 580.82 24.38 699.27

1904 35.30 4.55 51.25 9.43 31.14 88.00 195.21 198.32 102.71 9.62 25.87 10.21 39.85 91.82 584.24 45.69 761.60

1905 92.62 48.43 14.70 11.13 12.97 43.33 130.80 177.24 166.66 2.95 0.09 20.10 141.05 38.08 518.03 23.14 720.30

1906 17.62 96.83 19.71 11.84 53.08 80.14 109.26 284.31 193.96 2.21 0.05 3.77 114.45 84.63 667.67 6.03 872.78

1907 22.99 55.88 56.04 39.66 11.05 130.51 160.10 232.97 13.97 2.43 0.15 0.16 78.87 106.75 537.55 2.73 725.90

1908 43.81 24.95 2.64 19.46 44.26 75.90 156.58 356.83 255.25 0.78 0.89 4.76 68.76 66.36 844.56 6.44 986.12

1909 39.69 15.57 5.38 48.42 8.72 169.58 369.24 221.71 226.12 1.62 6.30 48.37 55.26 62.52 986.65 56.29 1160.72

1910 40.45 17.93 8.45 33.56 24.40 153.93 257.41 241.89 99.01 4.42 1.72 8.60 58.38 66.41 752.24 14.74 891.77

1911 76.02 7.49 81.61 13.52 6.07 77.37 142.01 196.18 175.56 5.85 44.25 3.36 83.51 101.20 591.12 53.47 829.30

1912 53.99 21.09 16.25 27.26 33.72 55.35 146.62 187.98 93.50 0.92 28.50 15.47 75.08 77.23 483.46 44.90 680.66

1913 28.66 52.53 44.65 25.40 51.70 134.23 160.62 216.88 45.49 2.54 8.29 23.66 81.19 121.75 557.22 34.49 794.64

1914 25.53 52.18 39.95 25.20 22.01 77.19 288.15 192.08 283.58 20.77 18.29 10.85 77.71 87.16 841.00 49.90 1055.77

1915 10.33 81.47 32.86 14.07 17.99 81.74 97.91 354.94 99.02 28.12 0.08 6.06 91.80 64.93 633.60 34.26 824.59

1916 5.01 14.35 3.66 13.22 25.36 139.90 375.70 193.53 131.72 14.20 0.28 0.22 19.36 42.24 840.86 14.71 917.17

1917 10.95 22.28 27.32 36.04 44.77 185.41 194.28 389.78 253.24 29.21 0.08 13.71 33.22 108.14 1022.70 43.01 1207.07

1918 4.09 1.96 33.65 37.87 6.11 87.47 106.28 106.73 44.68 1.19 25.84 15.38 6.06 77.63 345.16 42.41 471.26

1919 77.05 20.41 25.57 28.55 19.68 43.66 219.80 145.83 83.79 7.23 3.02 9.21 97.46 73.80 493.07 19.46 683.80

1920 30.43 27.03 32.47 23.27 27.22 112.74 129.22 107.44 100.95 2.10 0.06 0.92 57.46 82.96 450.35 3.08 593.85

1921 33.32 2.89 5.69 8.33 30.90 93.98 194.86 257.31 108.91 24.64 0.06 21.62 36.21 44.92 655.06 46.32 782.51

1922 36.93 35.08 15.36 10.68 21.94 66.20 181.53 240.00 271.16 9.93 5.01 50.97 72.01 47.98 758.89 65.92 944.80

1923 29.35 64.66 6.70 15.24 21.16 18.87 359.53 250.45 98.01 24.83 20.08 27.69 94.01 43.11 726.86 72.59 936.56

1924 45.94 59.38 15.14 8.53 28.51 19.75 255.18 123.56 285.66 25.05 2.55 48.53 105.32 52.18 684.15 76.13 917.78

1925 22.04 4.67 6.13 8.94 27.29 182.72 285.66 290.92 51.71 3.34 22.85 0.16 26.71 42.37 811.01 26.35 906.44

1926 20.48 9.69 55.58 26.22 21.90 40.45 210.01 243.31 101.56 2.67 12.05 13.21 30.17 103.70 595.32 27.93 757.12

1927 3.02 36.06 25.27 11.65 36.36 47.18 110.80 327.51 76.23 35.31 0.45 20.08 39.09 73.28 561.72 55.84 729.92

1928 37.82 54.33 15.73 26.03 4.87 45.28 188.03 141.39 237.28 0.47 21.39 24.61 92.15 46.64 611.97 46.47 797.23

1929 47.87 3.22 8.12 16.85 9.66 140.27 193.00 272.40 25.94 13.53 0.04 54.51 51.08 34.63 631.59 68.08 785.39

1930 48.19 15.35 9.05 21.30 10.73 49.44 262.95 158.43 38.08 10.68 13.94 14.57 63.54 41.09 508.90 39.19 652.72

1931 32.35 53.54 20.05 26.45 30.20 36.12 415.22 206.39 205.12 37.61 1.72 0.17 85.89 76.70 862.85 39.51 1064.95

1932 15.91 6.21 20.56 12.61 11.95 92.56 122.54 155.05 121.26 2.56 0.89 28.42 22.13 45.12 491.41 31.87 590.52

1933 21.88 34.24 21.80 21.23 25.62 89.47 209.24 362.31 150.03 34.30 9.29 1.74 56.12 68.65 811.06 45.34 981.17

1934 28.86 10.60 20.59 2.85 10.19 56.93 245.98 326.38 32.12 0.12 0.07 23.93 39.46 33.63 661.40 24.12 758.61

1935 68.75 46.46 15.74 28.53 19.98 6.93 134.62 139.07 82.01 2.35 21.99 16.56 115.20 64.26 362.63 40.90 582.99

1936 10.63 47.42 50.15 27.32 22.52 312.53 476.41 213.30 97.02 16.07 4.25 44.47 58.05 100.00 1099.27 64.80 1322.11

5 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

1937 11.68 83.37 13.52 35.57 23.73 69.03 335.12 87.60 122.57 16.61 1.77 22.53 95.05 72.82 614.32 40.91 823.10

1938 63.28 30.71 3.36 7.30 3.27 194.07 186.00 205.48 32.94 9.74 2.12 3.41 93.99 13.93 618.49 15.27 741.68

1939 26.52 51.88 34.15 20.23 9.52 75.25 169.71 103.59 56.28 15.32 0.24 0.28 78.40 63.90 404.82 15.84 562.95

1940 40.10 55.63 34.23 20.28 20.04 121.58 133.57 208.16 97.31 2.73 1.79 11.41 95.73 74.55 560.61 15.94 746.83

1941 32.30 23.87 9.62 16.76 37.69 72.83 131.54 92.67 220.38 2.47 4.13 18.37 56.17 64.06 517.42 24.97 662.62

1942 55.67 61.81 12.01 32.08 33.57 82.99 337.71 192.94 104.15 3.41 2.55 30.24 117.48 77.65 717.79 36.21 949.13

1943 28.79 5.61 16.35 28.43 6.40 113.88 100.70 183.51 123.40 0.06 0.00 0.10 34.41 51.18 521.48 0.16 607.23

1944 46.26 40.08 26.11 22.20 5.52 120.18 153.57 203.00 110.85 2.00 7.31 9.57 86.34 53.83 587.61 18.88 746.67

1945 36.96 3.59 32.14 43.74 14.90 110.48 348.81 132.82 232.73 28.04 0.11 5.72 40.55 90.78 824.85 33.87 990.04

1946 3.68 20.70 10.28 25.03 34.27 92.98 200.55 135.78 43.15 16.89 17.05 15.27 24.39 69.58 472.46 49.21 615.63

1947 22.28 29.18 28.58 3.56 18.75 42.51 182.44 279.11 107.25 14.62 1.78 18.79 51.46 50.88 611.32 35.19 748.84

1948 6.96 46.19 64.18 14.95 17.49 110.57 330.24 304.79 102.75 9.01 1.73 12.66 53.15 96.62 848.34 23.40 1021.51

1949 15.13 60.64 18.11 22.89 24.49 59.40 304.03 160.15 131.34 13.07 1.39 3.03 75.77 65.48 654.92 17.49 813.66

1950 104.95 37.22 48.08 10.78 26.94 96.14 338.53 212.55 289.22 1.45 3.10 1.70 142.17 85.80 936.45 6.25 1170.67

1951 32.45 39.19 38.45 20.67 27.65 100.29 130.77 225.25 89.75 8.31 37.22 2.64 71.64 86.77 546.06 48.16 752.64

1952 28.26 28.44 41.69 12.68 27.90 73.06 117.88 146.62 15.51 2.05 12.98 16.94 56.69 82.27 353.07 31.97 524.00

1953 54.69 20.50 28.62 17.30 4.91 84.16 416.90 204.45 178.86 13.21 4.20 15.10 75.18 50.83 884.37 32.51 1042.89

1954 42.68 89.07 10.15 3.33 24.46 68.45 234.92 125.95 366.83 18.57 0.00 4.10 131.75 37.94 796.15 22.67 988.51

1955 38.29 3.36 48.28 22.92 26.70 61.39 174.57 220.85 203.06 41.69 0.00 3.51 41.65 97.90 659.87 45.20 844.63

1956 30.19 22.89 35.69 31.22 33.72 141.80 193.33 203.24 32.71 46.28 0.00 10.49 53.08 100.63 571.08 56.77 781.57

1957 91.75 11.89 35.80 49.44 19.02 73.37 135.64 383.70 107.99 26.70 20.14 39.12 103.64 104.26 700.69 85.96 994.55

1958 21.51 11.31 19.15 17.64 13.68 60.07 164.87 247.37 219.22 34.64 3.34 36.87 32.81 50.47 691.53 74.84 849.66

1959 38.58 22.65 24.65 12.88 69.78 27.34 465.36 179.34 65.29 21.53 33.55 1.97 61.23 107.32 737.34 57.05 962.94

1960 28.25 5.83 30.58 18.83 23.15 83.33 246.41 189.95 85.96 27.14 0.08 8.03 34.07 72.56 605.65 35.24 747.52

1961 113.54 42.49 17.53 19.34 13.03 39.08 296.54 164.26 143.75 23.37 4.01 25.98 156.03 49.90 643.63 53.36 902.91

1962 53.98 29.49 28.23 4.75 12.62 17.87 182.52 139.22 250.73 0.13 12.53 25.89 83.47 45.60 590.33 38.54 757.95

1963 3.07 44.94 90.61 10.44 29.58 26.84 123.07 135.72 115.03 1.86 4.71 25.33 48.01 130.63 400.65 31.89 611.18

1964 34.14 13.09 17.17 17.05 22.87 81.31 331.14 193.78 96.69 0.06 3.02 13.15 47.24 57.09 702.92 16.23 823.47

1965 13.40 44.04 29.86 51.50 20.05 10.70 198.08 176.51 9.76 29.80 10.71 0.10 57.44 101.40 395.05 40.61 594.50

1966 5.34 67.12 51.53 30.63 29.03 149.21 163.53 211.56 213.02 27.46 29.83 1.30 72.45 111.20 737.31 58.59 979.56

1967 0.72 36.10 58.62 9.89 11.21 13.80 127.53 339.49 45.13 5.38 3.00 54.16 36.83 79.72 525.95 62.54 705.04

1968 39.47 42.84 15.18 9.68 7.29 31.25 202.71 230.42 10.66 15.16 0.13 11.48 82.30 32.15 475.04 26.77 616.26

1969 12.96 19.83 35.97 78.93 41.01 21.73 238.33 214.50 225.91 8.38 0.44 0.10 32.79 155.91 700.48 8.92 898.09

1970 34.24 30.23 13.08 1.79 17.40 71.00 76.05 231.05 76.88 5.87 0.00 0.35 64.46 32.27 454.97 6.22 557.93

1971 7.70 21.81 7.85 30.98 91.65 119.64 231.93 284.46 81.06 27.93 3.88 0.14 29.50 130.48 717.08 31.95 909.01

1972 20.80 24.58 16.26 10.47 19.00 28.20 131.64 165.41 292.61 40.31 19.76 11.04 45.37 45.73 617.86 71.11 780.07

1973 28.51 20.13 17.56 5.32 20.96 126.41 208.40 336.47 97.70 19.88 0.00 16.66 48.64 43.84 768.99 36.54 898.00

1974 26.76 29.97 7.40 1.72 37.11 65.64 219.69 113.45 53.61 2.55 0.10 13.69 56.73 46.23 452.39 16.34 571.69

1975 46.84 35.29 49.54 5.75 4.12 143.39 250.85 251.87 231.80 10.71 0.00 0.54 82.13 59.41 877.90 11.25 1030.70

1976 18.05 46.06 17.03 15.06 19.49 267.75 201.22 562.10 144.54 16.88 0.00 0.48 64.11 51.57 1175.60 17.36 1308.64

1977 57.91 4.75 2.05 75.32 55.87 242.96 247.38 158.30 85.74 29.73 1.29 13.22 62.66 133.24 734.37 44.25 974.52

1978 8.30 11.34 78.99 21.13 2.63 128.73 374.45 410.12 255.99 0.76 20.39 2.75 19.64 102.75 1169.29 23.90 1315.58

1979 18.81 69.46 41.74 8.49 32.01 53.75 216.67 89.35 142.25 10.70 12.19 3.12 88.27 82.24 502.02 26.01 698.54

1980 16.45 36.80 29.19 7.99 22.80 135.61 492.69 309.54 129.39 10.68 9.65 12.47 53.25 59.98 1067.23 32.80 1213.26

1981 91.90 25.28 48.91 23.71 23.44 25.15 391.84 137.16 15.00 9.27 51.39 1.20 117.18 96.06 569.15 61.86 844.25

1982 29.29 22.41 99.50 30.67 47.51 17.30 69.05 217.48 8.95 5.96 27.86 27.43 51.70 177.68 312.78 61.25 603.42

6 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

*J-F= Jan, Feb * MAM=Mar, Apr, May *J-S= Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep *O-D= Oct, Nov, Dec

Mean 33.91 33.86 29.32 22.09 25.72 90.26 226.93 215.28 127.89 12.95 8.27 14.18 67.77 77.12 660.37 35.40 840.65

STDEV 23.54 23.90 20.71 15.28 16.54 56.39 99.82 82.72 77.86 11.83 11.43 14.13 32.60 33.81 182.22 20.48 191.90

C V 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.69 0.64 0.62 0.44 0.38 0.61 0.91 1.38 1.00 0.48 0.44 0.28 0.58 0.23

*STDEV=Standard Deviation *C V= Coefficient of Variation

1983 56.04 29.83 77.49 62.70 75.22 134.99 242.54 241.05 104.02 29.41 0.00 3.18 85.87 215.42 722.60 32.60 1056.49

1984 2.28 79.09 10.80 24.20 4.73 39.93 453.24 261.85 199.15 0.18 0.21 23.79 81.38 39.72 954.17 24.17 1099.44

1985 30.37 1.91 16.09 46.36 24.09 125.89 456.73 224.34 120.49 32.78 1.91 29.82 32.28 86.54 927.44 64.50 1110.76

1986 4.04 43.20 30.14 17.23 41.90 99.14 304.11 218.10 182.24 13.91 7.58 50.03 47.24 89.28 803.59 71.52 1011.62

1987 53.28 29.65 23.25 20.50 32.15 77.10 88.79 144.77 10.32 20.00 0.00 23.42 82.92 75.90 320.98 43.42 523.22

1988 12.78 19.47 75.75 16.09 4.24 105.84 376.60 204.70 170.81 27.25 0.21 35.65 32.26 96.08 857.95 63.10 1049.39

1989 72.81 11.17 20.79 5.45 13.22 45.24 293.13 142.32 63.47 2.72 10.10 6.35 83.98 39.46 544.16 19.17 686.77

1990 10.70 95.85 80.48 17.49 74.70 33.20 241.21 262.00 231.97 4.94 15.77 45.40 106.55 172.67 768.39 66.11 1113.71

1991 9.90 29.60 19.17 52.76 34.91 134.97 43.30 190.67 99.84 5.15 4.59 11.64 39.50 106.84 468.78 21.37 636.49

1992 63.26 63.68 33.99 14.44 40.26 63.79 179.40 203.24 129.32 5.60 38.06 2.69 126.93 88.70 575.75 46.35 837.73

1993 20.96 26.78 29.51 27.22 21.38 112.94 181.62 46.92 173.77 0.19 0.14 0.23 47.74 78.10 515.25 0.56 641.66

1994 38.62 25.78 16.18 11.34 61.26 67.67 237.16 190.36 148.53 2.82 0.39 10.47 64.40 88.77 643.71 13.68 810.57

1995 55.83 117.33 23.65 7.31 1.65 129.57 229.54 355.27 138.13 3.37 33.53 2.07 173.17 32.61 852.50 38.97 1097.25

1996 63.66 60.44 39.35 25.66 36.36 240.40 179.58 387.07 105.79 15.91 1.58 6.90 124.10 101.37 912.84 24.39 1162.70

1997 25.31 16.26 26.21 62.83 31.55 182.17 211.59 279.69 102.83 24.69 29.87 16.00 41.57 120.59 776.28 70.55 1008.99

1998 41.78 50.58 56.29 46.92 32.84 47.22 211.67 197.15 141.08 27.52 8.34 8.45 92.36 136.05 597.12 44.30 869.84

1999 32.89 25.90 13.92 24.50 28.86 97.29 141.78 204.68 107.52 7.65 5.11 5.72 58.79 67.27 551.27 18.49 695.81

2000 26.96 49.04 18.88 10.19 30.11 128.94 182.17 160.52 82.41 0.05 2.55 1.61 76.00 59.17 554.04 4.21 693.42

2001 11.12 15.57 17.95 27.13 44.00 92.63 263.08 112.06 80.23 5.29 5.41 7.65 26.69 89.07 548.00 18.35 682.12

2002 35.99 52.28 50.61 18.07 14.99 90.01 128.04 163.71 211.47 2.41 0.65 3.35 88.27 83.67 593.23 6.40 771.58

7 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

Graphical Representation of Monthly Rainfall (1901-2002)

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8 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

0

100

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9 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

Graphical Representation of Seasonal Rainfall (1901-2002)

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Winter Season

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Pre-monsoon Season

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Monsoon Season

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Post-monsoon Season

10 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

Graphical Representation of Annual Rainfall(1901-2002)

Conclusion: The results of the study are summarized below:

Analysis of monthly rainfall data indicates positive trends of rainfall in Himachal

Pradesh except few months (December and January) during the study period 1901-

2002. The monthly trend of rainfall has been observed highest in the month of July in

the year 1936 i.e. (226.93mm rainfall) and least rainfall has been observed in the

month of November in the year 1943 i.e. (8.27mm).

Analysis of seasonal rainfall data also indicates increasing trends for the four seasons

(winter, pre monsoon, monsoon and post monsoon seasons).The sharp increasing

rainfall trends have been observed in the pre monsoon season and in all other season

normal trend has been observed.

The seasonal graph of winter has been divided into two parts i.e. 1901 to 1950 & 1951

to 2001. According to the graphical representation it has been observed that from

1901 to 1950 highest peak has been observed in the year 1905 followed by the normal

trend from the year 1906 to 1949. Then it increase suddenly in the year 1950. Again

normal trends have been observed from the year 1951 to 1994 followed by sudden

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YEARS

ANNUAL RAINFALL

11 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

increase in the year 1995. Similarly in pre monsoon season the increased peak has

been observed in the year 1983. In monsoon season the highest peak has been

observed in the years 1936 and 1976, in between normal trends of rainfall have been

observed. At last , during post monsoon season the increased peak has been observed

in the year 1925 then it decrease gradually and increased in the year 1957 again

followed by the normal trend.

Analysis of annual rainfall data shows increasing trends during the study period 1901-

2002 for Himachal Pradesh. The increasing trend has been observed in the year 1936,

and then there is a slight fall in the rainfall after 1936 upto1970. Then normal trends

have been observed after 1970 followed by increasing trends from the year 1975

onwards.

The averaged monthly rainfall in Himachal Pradesh is highest in July (226.93mm)

and lowest in November (8.27mm) contributing 27% and 1% respectively to the

annual mean of 840.65mm for the period 1901-2002.

Seasonally monsoon rainfall is contributing highest (78.55%) followed by pre-

monsoon(9.17%) then winter season (8.06%) and finally post monsoon

season(4.21%) in the state indicating rainfall in all seasons in Himachal Pradesh.

However with lowest mean and highest coefficient of variation (252.17%), post

monsoon season rainfall has highest inter-annual variability.

References:

Archer, D.R. and Fowler, H.J., 2004, “Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the

Upper Indus Basin: Global Teleconnections and Hydrological Implications”, Hydrology and

Earth System Sciences, 8, 1, 47-61.

Bhutiyani, M.R., Kale, V.S. and Pawar, N.J., 2010, “Climate change and the precipitation

variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866-2006”, International Journal of Climatology,

30,535-548.

Chaudhary, A. and Abhyankar, V.P., 1979, “Does precipitation pattern foretell Gujarat

climate becoming arid”, Mausam, 30, 1, 85-90.

Dash,S.K., Jenamani, R.K., Kalsi, S.R. and Panda, S.K.,2007, “ Some evidence of climate

change in the twentieth-century India”,Climate Change, 85, 299-321.

12 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2

Goswami, B.N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D.,Madhusoodan, M.S. and Xavier, P.K.,2006,

“Increasing trends of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment”,

Science,314, 1442-1445.

Guhathakurta, P. and Rajeevan, M., 2006, “Trends in the rainfall pattern over India”, India

Meterological Department Research Report No.2/2006, p23.

IPCC, 2001, “Climate Change 2001: impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability”, Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, U.K.

Kumar, V., Singh, P. and Jain, S.K., 2005, “Rainfall trends over Himachal Pradesh, Western

Himalaya, India”, Conference on Development of Hydro Power Projects-A Prospective

Challenge, Shimla, 20-22April, 2005.

Lal, M., 2001, “Climate Change- Implications for India’s water resources”,Ind. Water

Resource Society,21,101-119.

Mooley, D.A. and Parthasarthy, B., 1984, “Fluctuations of all India summer monsoon rainfall

during 1871-1978”, Climate Change, 6,287-301.

Prasad, R. and Rana, R.S., 2010, “ Length of rainy season and climatic water balance as

influenced by climate change in the sub temperate and sub tropical hills of Himachal

Pradesh”, Journal of Agriculture Physics, 10,44-49.

Jaswal, A.K.,Bhan,S.C. et al.,2015, “ Seasonal and annual rainfall trends in Himachal

Pradesh during 1951-2005”, Mausam,66,247-264.

Thapliyal, V. and Kulshreshtha, S.M., 1991, “Climate changes and trends over India”,

Mausam, 42, 333-338.

13 |S e a s o n a l , M o n t h l y a n d A n n u a l R a i n f a l l T r e n d s i n H i m a c h a l P r a d e s h d u r i n g 1 9 0 1 - 2 0 0 2